Asia Fact Check Lab: Did NATO donate HIV-infected blood to Ukraine?

During the past two weeks, a conspiracy theory alleging that NATO members had donated HIV and hepatitis-infected blood to Ukraine was originally posted and spread on Weibo by “Guyan Muchan,” an influential account with more than 6 million followers.  Asia Fact Check Lab (AFCL) tracked down and confirmed the pro-Putin Telegram channel Breaking Mash as the disinformation’s source. Further inquiries by the Ukraine-based fact-checking organization StopFake caused the Ukrainian government to release a formal statement debunking the disinformation.  On Nov. 3, Guyan Muchan, a widely followed Weibo user, published a post claiming to reveal a tainted blood scandal involving NATO and Ukraine. The statement reads: “Ukraine asked NATO to provide more than 60,000 liters of blood for wounded soldiers in the Odessa, Nikolaev, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov and Zaporozhye regions. NATO member countries provided Ukraine with canned blood. However, Ukrainian medical staff found HIV and hepatitis B and C viruses in the blood after random examinations. Kiev has written to NATO requesting an independent assessment of the donor blood and asking that blood “not be collected on the African continent.” In the first group, 6.3% of the samples had HIV, 7.4% had hepatitis B and 3.2% had hepatitis C.  In the second group: 5.9%, 6.8% and 3.1%, respectively. The information is obtained by leaked files after the Ukrainian government office computers were hacked.” The post contained three images. The first was a picture of a statement that hackers allegedly had obtained confidential documents from Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal’s email. The second was an alleged letter from Ukraine’s Minister of Health to Shmyhal. The third was the English translation of the letter. Each image’s background contained the word “mash” as a watermark, which AFCL used to trace the post back to its original source.   Guyan Muchan is one of China’s “patriotic” influencers who in recent years rose to fame by pandering to domestic nationalist sentiment. Her post claiming the use of tainted blood was liked by hundreds of people, with other influential social media figures reposting it to millions more. This “news” swiftly spread on a number of Chinese language websites, including the popular internet news portal 163.com.  What is the claim’s source? AFCL was unable to find any reports about the claim from credible English media outlets. A few English websites with poor news credibility did repost it, including the pro-Russia website info.news and the gun-lover community forum snipershide.com. A slew of unreliable Twitter accounts have also posted the claim in English. Chief among them is ZOKA, a user with more than 105,000 followers. Marcus Kolga, director at DisinfoWatch, a fact-checking project under the Macdonald-Laurier Institute in Canada, told AFCL that ZOKA is a “well-known pro-Kremlin account.” AFCL also found the Russian version of the claim being spread on many websites, forums and social media platforms. After comparing both the publishing time and watermark, AFCL traced the claim back to a post on the Telegram channel “Breaking Mash,” first published at 1 a.m. on Nov. 3. The original post has since gained over 1a million views. Breaking Mash is the official Telegram channel of the Russian-language website Mash.ru. The website’s content is full of lies and is highly aligned with Moscow’s propaganda, according to Christine Eliashevsky-Chraibi, a media veteran and translator at Euromaidan Press. Mash senior staff are suspected of being close to the Russian government, with company executive Stepan Kovalchuk’s uncles, Kirill and Yuri Kovalchuk, marked as “elites close to Putin” by the United States.S. In sum, both the claim’s original Russian source along with the English websites and social media accounts that spread the claim all suffer from low credibility.  Is the claim true? AFCL deems the Guyan Muchan post to be false. It came from a pro-Russia Telegram channel with low credibility. The Ukraine Ministry of Health refuted the claim in a statement offering more details about blood donation in Ukraine. The claim alleges that the “scoop” was leaked from the hacked email of Ukraine’s prime minister, Denys Shmyhal. But no credible media outlets reported on the leaked emails.The statements the claim relies on use questionable language that normally would not be appropriate for official documents. For example, the claim alleges that the mMinister of hHealth demanded that NATO’s donor blood “not be collected on the African continent.” The possibility of such racist language appearing in a formal government document is unlikely. Eliashevsky-Chraibi said the alleged government letter is “very suspicious” as there’s “no date, no signature, no stamp” and it was “not formal procedure.”  Through the Ukraine based fact-checking organization StopFake, AFCL checked with the Ukrainian government regarding the veracity of this claim. On Nov. 7, the Ukrainian Ministry of Health published a statement on its official website refuting the claim. Ukraine has never requested blood donations from any organization outside of the country, and all donor blood needed for the battlefield comes from within Ukraine and meets European standards, according to the ministry’s statement. Whenever there is an urgent need at a blood center, people respond quickly to requests for donations, negating the need for any supplies from outside of the country. The statement adds that Ukraine does not have a “random sampling” system of donor blood. Instead, it tests all donations to ensure they are safe and reliable.  The alleged letter from Ukraine’s Minister of Health is a forgery, the statement says.  The allegation about blood donated to Ukraine originated on the Russian telegram channel Breaking Mash [left] and then was picked up by a pro-Kremlin account on Twitter [center] and a few hours later by an account on Weibo [right] with 6.44 million fans. Credit: Asia Fact Check Lab screenshots Background Information In late October, the Kyiv Post, a leading English newspaper in Ukraine, published a report that Russia’s Wagner private military company had recruited Russian prisoners suffering from severe infectious diseases, in particular HIV and hepatitis C. This news bears some similarities with the claim made on the Breaking Mash Telegram channel, including the mention of HIV, hepatitis and the war, but…

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Biden steps up engagement with ASEAN amid China rivalry and global conflict

UPDATED AT 06:15 p.m. ET OF 11-12-2022 U.S. President Joe Biden offered rare praise for Cambodia’s authoritarian premier as he encouraged diplomatic support for ending the war in Ukraine and bringing peace to Myanmar at a summit with Southeast Asian leaders on Saturday. Although the control of U.S. Congress lies in the balance back in Washington, Biden signaled commitment to the region by attending an annual gathering of leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. His appearance in Phnom Penh, a day after attending a climate change conference in Egypt, serves as a prelude to the first face-to-face meeting of his presidency with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, which will take place in Bali, Indonesia, on Monday. The U.S. and China vie for influence in Southeast Asia. Although Cambodia has faced some stiff criticism from the U.S. over its suppression of democracy, Prime Minister Hun Sen welcomed the president saying the meeting showed the Biden administration’s commitment to “ASEAN centrality and a rule-based regional architecture to maintain peace and stability in the region.” “We support the engagement of the U.S in our ASEAN community building process as truly important, especially in the context of bolstering ASEAN’s recovery from the COVID-19 crisis, promoting regional resilience as well as addressing many pressing issues such as climate change, food and energy security,” he said, adding that ASEAN planned to extend relations with the U.S. to a comprehensive strategic partnership. That will put the U.S. on level-pegging with China, which already has that status. Cambodia is hosting the summit as it holds the rotating chairmanship of the 10-nation ASEAN bloc. Indonesia takes the chair after this week’s summits. Biden stressed the importance of the partnership, saying the U.S administration would build on the past year’s U.S. $250 million in new initiatives with ASEAN by requesting a further $850 million for the next 12 months. He said it would pay for more Southeast Asian projects such as an integrated electric vehicle ecosystem and clean energy infrastructure to reduce carbon emissions. “Together we will tackle the biggest issues of our time from climate to health security, defend against significant threats to rule-based order, and to threats to the rule of law, and to build an Indo-Pacific that’s free and open, stable and prosperous, resilient and secure,” Biden said.  The linchpin of the U.S. push in Southeast Asia is the Indo-Pacific Economic Partnership (IPEF) that is intended to intensify America’s economic engagement in the region. ASEAN is America’s fourth-largest trading partner. Whether the members of ASEAN will be impressed by what the U.S. has to offer is another matter. “I don’t think ASEAN states are much sold on IPEF. It contains parts that are anathema to them and yet isn’t really a trade deal, and does little to actually further regional economic integration. It’s a fairly weak package overall,” said Joshua Kurlantzick, senior fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations. “China is already by far the region’s dominant economy and trade partner and the U.S. isn’t going to materially change that. Southeast Asian states are stuck with China as their dominant economic partner. “For some Southeast Asian states [there is] a desire to build closer strategic ties with the U.S, but the U.S. is not going to now replace China as the region’s dominant trade partner.” CAPTION: U.S. President Joe Biden meets with 2022 ASEAN Chair and Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Sen at the ASEAN summit in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, Nov. 12, 2022. CREDIT: Reuters/Kevin Lamarque In a comment that would have raised some eyebrows among critics of the Cambodian government’s human rights record, Biden on Saturday thanked Hun Sen – for critical remarks about the war in Ukraine and for co-sponsoring U.N resolutions.  Earlier this week, Hun Sen met with the Ukrainian foreign minister. He’s also expressed concern about recent attacks on Ukrainian cities and civilian casualties. Russian President Vladimir Putin has skipped the ASEAN summit and sent Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in his place. However, Biden did call for transparency over Chinese military activities at Ream Naval base on Cambodia’s southern coast, and urged Hun Sen “to reopen civic and political space ahead of 2023 elections,” and release Theary Seng, an imprisoned U.S.-Cambodian lawyer and activist. The other conflict that Biden mentioned in his public comments to ASEAN leaders was Myanmar, whose military leader was not invited to the summit. Biden said he looked forward to the return of democracy there. Human rights groups have assailed the Southeast Asian bloc for its failure to put more pressure on Myanmar to end the civil war that followed a February 2021 military coup against an elected government. On Friday, ASEAN leaders took a marginally tougher stand, calling for measurable progress toward the goals of its Five Point Consensus that include restoring democracy and delivering humanitarian aid. On Saturday Antonio Guterres voiced his support for the plan, saying “the systematic violation of human rights are absolutely unacceptable and causing enormous suffering to the Myanmarese people.” Cambodia, which has jailed opposition politicians and environmentalists, was not spared criticism by the U.N. secretary general. “My appeal in a country like Cambodia is for the public space to be open and for human rights defenders and climate activists to be protected,” he said. Biden attends the East Asia Summit on Sunday, also hosted by Cambodia, where he plans once again to discuss ways to end the Russian invasion of Ukraine and limit the global impact of the war in terms of fuel and grain shortages that are fueling global inflation.    The U.S. president is also holding talks with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol expected to focus on North Korea’s recent barrage of missiles fired into the seas off the Korean peninsula — including one that passed over Japan. North Korea is also reported to be planning a nuclear test. Biden then heads to the Indonesian island of Bali to attend the Group of 20 leaders’ summit. Ahead of the G20, on…

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Report criticizes ASEAN, international response to Myanmar humanitarian crisis

A new report by lawmakers from Southeast Asia and other regions criticizes what they describe as a timid response to the post-coup crisis in Myanmar by countries and international blocs that claim to support democracy. The Final Report by the International Parliamentary Inquiry, or IPI, into the Global Response to the Crisis in Myanmar, which was released in Bangkok on Wednesday, specifically took aim at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations ahead of the regional bloc’s summit later this month. “The struggle of the Myanmar people for democracy is also the struggle of all people who love democracy and justice everywhere,” the ASEAN Parliamentarians for Human Rights, or APHR, said in the report, according to BenarNews, an RFA-affiliated online news service. ASEAN’s five-point consensus reached with Myanmar junta leader Sr. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing in April 2021 has been “an utter failure,” Charles Santiago, a Malaysian lawmaker and chairman of the APHR, said in a news release announcing the 52-page report. Myanmar is one of the 10 members of ASEAN. “Gen. Min Aung Hlaing has shown an absolute contempt for the agreement he signed and for ASEAN’s member states, and the regional group has been unable to adopt a stance to put pressure on the junta,” Santiago said in a press release accompanying the statement. “Meanwhile, most of the international community has hidden behind ASEAN in order to avoid doing anything meaningful. It is past time that ASEAN ditches the five-point consensus and urgently rethinks its approach to the crisis in Myanmar,” he said. The consensus called for an immediate end to violence; a dialogue among all concerned parties; mediation of the dialogue process by an ASEAN special envoy; provision of humanitarian aid through ASEAN channels; and a visit to Myanmar by the bloc’s special envoy to meet all concerned parties. “A common theme often repeated by our witnesses has been that, in the face of such a horrible tragedy, the countries and international institutions that claim to support democracy in Myanmar have reacted with a timidity that puts in serious doubt their alleged commitment to the country,” the report said. In its recommendations, the report called for ASEAN to negotiate a new agreement with Myanmar’s opposition National Unity Government, or NUG, making sure the new accord has enforcement mechanisms. As recently as last week, ASEAN leaders announced they would continue efforts to implement the 18-month-old consensus. The ministers “reaffirmed the importance and relevance” of the consensus, “and underscored the need to further strengthen its implementation through concrete, practical and time-bound actions,” Cambodian Foreign Minister Prak Sokhonn said in a statement after the Oct. 27 meeting. Cambodia, which chairs ASEAN this year, will host the summit in Phnom Penh from Nov. 10 to 13. While some ASEAN members, including Malaysia, have sought to hold the Burmese junta accountable, members such as Cambodia and Thailand are among the nations who “have persisted as junta enablers,” the report said. And because ASEAN makes its decisions consensually, some analysts don’t foresee much progress being made at the summit in Phnom Penh. Against Myanmar participation Meanwhile, Malaysia’s outgoing top diplomat has put forward a proposal to prohibit the Myanmar junta from all ASEAN ministerial-level meetings. “All ASEAN ministerial meetings should not have Myanmar political representation. That is Malaysia’s position,” caretaker Foreign Minister Saifuddin Abdullah told The Australian Financial Review on Wednesday. “We know two more countries share this view, and we are very hopeful it will be considered at the leaders’ summit next week.” Saifuddin is a caretaker minister because Malaysian leader Ismail Sabri Yaakob dissolved parliament when he announced a general election, which will be held later this month. The first ASEAN foreign minister to publicly meet with the NUG’s foreign minister, Saifuddin is seen as one of the shadow government’s biggest allies. IPI said that throughout its hearings while compiling the report “participants, even those that also expressed a level of criticism toward the NUG, overwhelmingly called for the international community to recognize it as the legitimate government of Myanmar and engage with it instead of the junta.” The IPI held six public hearings along with several private hearings and received dozens of written submissions. Malaysia’s Santiago and Indonesian House member Chriesty Barends traveled to the Thai-Myanmar border in August to gather information. The IPI investigation team included officials from African countries, the Americas and Europe. Heidi Hautala, vice president of the European Parliament, served a chairwoman, and United States Rep. Ilhan Omar served as a member. Thai MP Nitipon Piwmow served on the team as well. The report blamed the international community for encouraging “a sense of impunity within the Myanmar military,” the news release said. It pointed to an October airstrike at a Kachin music festival that killed at least 60 civilians. “Myanmar is suffering a tragedy words cannot describe. The global community should urgently step up the delivery of humanitarian assistance and it should work with local civil society organizations that know the terrain well, have ample experience and are trusted by the population,” Barends said. “Millions of Myanmar citizens suffering the most grievous hardships cannot wait for long. International actors should leave politics aside and help the Myanmar people immediately.” BenarNews is an RFA-affiliated news service.

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Southeast Asia remains world rice bowl as pockets of region suffer crop disasters

Rice crops in Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar have taken a hit from flooding and conflict this year, casting a shadow on a mostly sunny outlook for Southeast Asia’s output of the key grain as the region deals with other potential longer term supply troubles, farm officials and researchers say. Poverty and hunger are stalking some rural communities in peninsular Southeast Asia, also called Indochina, as a result of lost crops, hitting populations still struggling to recover from lost income and other fallout from widespread economic disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar, the poorest Southeast Asian nations, are not major players in rice production in a sector dominated by Thailand and Vietnam, which lead the world in exports of the grain. Southeast Asia accounts for 26 percent of global rice production and 40 percent of exports, supplying populous neighbors Indonesia and the Philippines, as well as Africa and the Middle East, according the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization. But their harvest shortfalls have to be made up from other suppliers, and any serious deterioration in rice output could have ripple effects on import-dependent countries in Asia. The challenge is more acute at a time of deepening worries over food security and rising food prices in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has removed those countries’ key grain exports from global supplies. A man transports bags of rice in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, Oct. 17, 2019. Credit: AFP Cambodia’s National Committee for Disaster Management reported early this month that floods inundated some 770 villages in 22 provinces, including Banteay Meanchey, Battambang, Pursat, Siem Reap, Kampong Thom and Preah Vihear. More than 150,000 hectares of rice paddies were flooded more than 100,000 families were affected by the floods, a committee official told local media. Banteay Meanchey farmer Voeun Pheap told RFA that floods destroyed more than four hectares of his farm and brought immediate hardship to his family as it wiped out his crop and the hope of paying off what he borrowed to plant. “I couldn’t make much money, I lost my investments, and I am in debt,” he said. In Laos, an agriculture and forestry official in Hua Phanh province told RFA that flooding in two districts had wiped out rice crops and left 200 families with no harvest to eat or sell. “Sand is covering the rice fields all over due to heavy rain, which destroyed both rice paddies and dry rice fields,” he said, speaking on condition of anonymity for safety reasons. “Families that have been affected will go hungry this year. The damage is so enormous that villagers will have to seek food from the forest or sell other crops that were not affected,” the official added. People reach out to buy subsidized rice from government officials in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, March 27, 2008. Credit: AFP Fear, fighting leave fallow fields More than 18 months after a military coup toppled a popular civilian government and plunged Myanmar into political and military conflict, the country of 54 million faces security threats to its rice supply on top of the environmental and economic problems faced by its neighbors. “I am too afraid to leave my home,” said Myo Thant, a local farmer in the town of Shwebo in the Sagaing region, a farming region in central Myanmar that has been a main theater of fighting between ruling army junta forces and local militias opposed to army rule. “I can’t fertilize the fields and I can’t do irrigation work,” he told RFA “The harvest will be down. We will barely have enough food for ourselves,” added Myo Thant. Farmers groups told RFA that in irrigated paddy farms across Myanmar, planting reduced due to the security challenges as well as to rising prices for fuel, fertilizers, pesticides and herbicides. Growers are limiting their planting to rain-fed rice fields. “Only 60 percent of (paddy) farms will grow this year, which means that the production will be reduced by about 40 percent,” Zaw Yan of the Myanmar Farmers Representative Network told RFA. Senior Gen Min Aung Hlaing, the Myanmar junta chief, told a meeting August that of 33.2 million acres of farmland available for rice cultivation, only 15 million acres of rainy reason rice and 3 million acres of irrigated summer paddy rice are being grown. Brighter regional outlook This year’s flooding has caused crop losses and concern in Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar, but so far it doesn’t appear to have dented the regional outlook for the grain, thanks to expected big crops and surpluses in powerhouse exporters Thailand and Vietnam. World stocks have been buoyed by India’s emergence as the top rice exporter of the grain. In this June 5, 2015 photo, workers load sacks of imported Vietnam rice onto trucks from a ship docked at a port area in Manila, Philippines.Credit: Reuters Although Myanmar is embroiled in conflict and largely cut off from world commerce, Cambodia exported 2.06 million tons of milled and paddy rice worth nearly $616 million in the first half of 2022, a 10 percent increase over the same period in 2021, the country’s farm ministry said in July. Laos was the world’s 25th largest rice exporter in 2020. A report released this month by U.S. Department of Agriculture saw continued large exports from Thailand and Vietnam likely into 2023, offsetting drops in shipments of the grain from other suppliers. While the USDA has projected that Southeast Asia’s rice surplus will continue, a research team at Nature Food that studied rice output in Cambodia, Indonesia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam suggested the region might lose its global Rice Bowl status. The threats include stagnating crop yields, limited new land for agriculture, and climate change. “Over the past decades, through renewed efforts, countries in Southeast Asia were able to increase rice yields, and the region as a whole has continued to produce a large amount of rice that exceeded regional demand, allowing a rice surplus to be exported to other countries,” the study said. “At…

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Outside of China, concern exceeds optimism as Xi Jinping begins third term as ruler

The Chinese Communist Party wrapped up its 20th National Congress at the weekend, granting an unprecedented third five-year term to CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping. Xi, 69, is set to have his term as state president renewed by the rubber-stamp National People’s Congress in March. RFA asked experts on key aspects of China for their impressions of the congress and expectations of Chinese policies as Xi enters his third term after already a decade at the helm of the world’s most populous nation. China-U.S. relations and foreign policy Oriana Skylar Mastro, Center fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University and author of The Costs of Conversation: Obstacles to Peace Talks in Wartime: The bottom line is, the next five years is undoubtedly going to be more rocky for U.S.-China relations and for other countries with security concerns in the region. The issue is not that Xi Jinping really has nailed down the third term. It wasn’t the case that his position was so precarious that he couldn’t be aggressive before. However, it was unlikely that he was going to take moves to start some sort of conflagration that would extend into the party Congress. So the party Congress did serve as a restraint in so far as it was useful to wait until afterwards to take any more aggressive actions against Taiwan, for example. But the reason it didn’t happen previously is largely based on China’s military capabilities. Xi Jinping has been relatively clear since he took power in 2013, where his goals were in terms of promoting territorial integrity, is trying to define that and resolving a lot of these territorial issues, enhancing their position in Asia to regain their standing as a great power. The rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and a dominant position in Asia of which it had previously been decided not only by Xi, but by strategists, analysts and pundits ever since. [Former President Barack] Obama mentioned in his State of the Union that he wouldn’t accept the United States as number two. It had already been decided that there was going to be conflict with the United States if China wanted to be number one in Asia. And so Xi Jinping has been on a trajectory, China has been on a trajectory that’s been relatively consistent, that includes an improvement in military capabilities and thus a heavier reliance on those capabilities to achieve their goals over time. So with the frequency and intensity of competition and conflict, the general trend is that it increases over time. Denny Roy, Senior Fellow at the East-West Center in Hawaii and author of Return of the Dragon: Rising China and Regional Security: At least two messages from the CCP’s 20th Party Congress bode ill for China-U.S. relations.  The first is that a shift in the international balance of power creates an opportunity for China to push for increased global influence and standing.  This is a continuation of a reassessment reached late in the Hu Jintao era, and which Xi Jinping has both embraced and acted upon.  There is no hint of regret about Chinese policies that caused alarm and increased security cooperation among several countries both inside and outside the region, no recognition that Chinese hubris has damaged China’s international reputation within the economically developed world, and no sense that damage control is necessary due to adverse international reaction to what has happened in Xinjiang, Hong Kong, the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.  Instead, Beijing seems primed to continue to oppose important aspects of international law, to resist the U.S.-sponsored liberal order, and to extoll PRC-style fascism as superior to democracy.  This orientation portends continued if not increasing friction with the United States on multiple fronts, both strategic and ideological.  Secondly, while the Congress expressed optimism about China’s present course, it evinced increased pessimism about China’s external environment, especially what Chinese leaders call growing hostility from the United States.  Not long ago, PRC leaders perceived a “period of strategic opportunity” within which China could grow with minimal foreign opposition.  Increasingly, however, PRC elites seem to believe that alleged U.S. “containment” of China will intensify now that the power gap between the two countries has narrowed and China has become a serious threat to U.S. “hegemony.” PRC efforts to undercut U.S. strategic influence, especially in China’s near abroad, will continue.  Beijing will try to draw South Korea out of the U.S. orbit, and may wish to do the same with Japan and Australia, although in those cases it may be too late.  Beijing will continue to try to establish a Chinese sphere of influence in the East and South China Seas, while laying the groundwork for possible new spheres of influence in the Pacific Islands, Africa and Central Asia. Human rights William Nee, Research and Advocacy Coordinator at China Human Rights Defenders: To some extent, the 20th Party Congress will not see any dramatic break from what is happening thus far–and that’s exactly the problem. China is experiencing a human rights crisis: human rights defenders are systematically surveilled, persecuted, and tortured in prison. There are crimes against humanity underway in the Uyghur region, with millions of people being subjected to arbitrary detention, forced labor, or intrusive surveillance. The cultural rights of Tibetans are not respected. And now, Xi Jinping’s ‘Zero-COVID’ policy is wreaking havoc on China’s economy, and particularly the wellbeing of disadvantaged groups, like migrant workers and the elderly. But there have been no signs whatsoever that the Communist Party is ready to course correct. Instead, after the 20th Party Congress, we will see a new batch of promotions, with these Communist Party cadres more indebted to Xi Jinping’s patronage for their positions of power. In other words, Xi Jinping will have created an incentive structure in which these sycophantic ‘yes men’ will only repeat the ‘thoughts’ of the idiosyncratic leader to prove their loyalty. This makes it even more unlikely that Xi or the Communist Party will even see the necessity…

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Coup in China

Is there a possibility of a Military Coup in China?

The world of social media is buzzed with the speculation that Xi Jinping is up for huge trouble. The possibility of a military coup in China is on the cards. From the past 3 days trends #XiJinping, #ChinaCoup and #XiJinpinghousearrest. Following is an analysis of these trends on Google. Google Trends Twitter Trends The analysis for Twitter is also an interesting watch. There were over 86K tweets and over 24.4M impressions just on 23rd September 2022 from all corners of the world containing the word “Xi Jinping” to find out about the News of his coup. Following is the data at a glance. What is happening in China? Many leaders of the CCP got sentenced to death and life imprisonment earlier this month. This was the beginning of all the speculations as China is heading toward the 20th National Congress (NPC). Xi’s participation in the SCO meeting ends a 1,000-day period in which he did not leave China in line with Beijing’s national “dynamic zero COVID” policy that has put the world’s most populous country on virtual lockdown. Xi is facing growing resentment back home due to the Zero-COVID policy that has resulted in mass unemployment, increasing crimes, deaths, suicides, mental health issues, and over 450 protests this year as we reported earlier on Ij-Reportika. People noticed the uneasiness in Xi’s body language in Samarkand and the fact that he left earlier fueled these speculations further. Furthermore, mass cancellation of flights, especially in the Tibet Autonomous Region, and the movement of military convoys towards Beijing were also observed by the Chinese natives. They shared these reports on Weibo, and other world social media users picked up these reports and shared them on Twitter and Facebook. Here is the exact data shared: The Chinese officials famous for their “wolf warrior diplomacy” and Chinese State-affiliated Media houses never cleared the air around all these issues. Moreover, independent media houses around the world pointed out that Xi Jinping Disappeared from the public eye after returning from the SCO summit, and there was a possibility that he was under house arrest. Prominent Media Houses even published articles citing Xi’s absence from the national defense and military reform seminar, which further fueled the speculation of a ‘coup’. All these issues one after another points to something big happening before the 20th National Congress of the CPC. It may or may not be a coup but it is clear from Google and Twitter Trends that it has ruffled a lot of feathers around the world and raised the concerns of common Chinese citizens amid the draconian Zero COVID Policy.

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