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Category: Africa

Arab politicians praise China’s policies in Xinjiang

Editor08 mins

A delegation of Palestinian and other Arab politicians praised China’s policies in Xinjiang during a visit to the northwestern region, sparking criticism from experts and Uyghur rights advocates for not highlighting the plight of fellow Muslims living in the region. The delegation was led by Bassam Zakarneh, a member of Fatah’s Revolutionary Council of Palestine and made up of politicians from Syria, Egypt, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, Jordan and Tunisia, according to a report by the Global Times.  On March 27, Xinjiang’s Communist Party chief Ma Xingrui welcomed them to Urumqi, the regional capital. The goal of the visit, according to a Xinjiang Daily report, was to present a comprehensive understanding of the situation in Xinjiang and convey a narrative of a peaceful and vibrant region to the international community. That’s in sharp contrast with the United States and some Western parliaments, which have accused China of carrying out a genocide against the 11-million-strong Uyghurs who live in Xinjiang – a region taken over by Chinese Communists in 1949 – by imprisoning, torturing and sterilizing those who do not fall into line.  Beijing has denied the claims and said that alleged concentration camps are in fact vocational training centers that have since been closed. To the visiting delegates, Ma touted the region’s development, stability and guarantee of human rights for all ethnic groups, and accused the United States and the West of spreading lies, according to Chinese media reports.  “Their objective is to restrict and control China through Xinjiang,” Ma was quoted as saying. ‘See it for yourself’ During their meeting with Ma, the delegation praised China’s creative governance measures and “unprecedented progress in economic development,” the Xinjiang Daily said. The delegation head said that “people of all ethnic groups live a good life, enjoy full freedom of religious belief, and have smiles on their faces,” according to the report, which didn’t provide the names of who spoke or any direct quotes. Women walk past a propaganda slogan promoting ethnic unity in “the new era”, in both Chinese and Uyghur languages, in Yarkant, Xinjiang region, July 18, 2023. (Pedro Pardo/AFP) The paper went on to say that the delegation said the United States and other Western nations are “smearing” China’s Xinjiang policy and fabricating rumors. “Why not come and see it for yourself?” the delegates said, according to the Xinjiang Daily. “We will tell more people what we saw and heard in Xinjiang, China, so that Arab countries can better understand the real Xinjiang, China.” But experts on the region said China orchestrated what the delegates would and wouldn’t see during their visit so as to conceal the persecution of the Uyghurs.  The visitors should have been allowed to speak directly and freely with Uyghur Muslims living in the region, said Robert McCaw, director of the Government Affairs Department at the Council on American-Islamic Relations.  “Apparently, China wants to reach out to these leftist movements in the Arab world, and China wants to use them as its own propaganda,” said Mustafa Akyol, senior fellow at the Cato’s Institute’s Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity. “The Arab world should not be influenced by China.” Political dynamics at play China has used such visits to Xinjiang to win over other Muslim groups – and push them away from the United States and other Western powers, experts say. It has also supported the Palestinians, as it seeks to expand its influence in the Middle East. Ten 10 months ago, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas told Chinese President Xi Jinping during a visit to Beijing that he believed the Xinjiang issue, often framed as a human rights concern, was in fact a battle against terrorism, extremism and separatism.  And last August, China invited delegates from the 57-nation Organisation of Islamic Cooperation to visit Xinjiang, in a bid to promote its rosy narrative about the peace and prosperity enjoyed by Uyghurs and blunt international criticism. “China seeks to build consensus and strengthen its global influence,” said Ma Ju, an ethnic Muslim Hui scholar based in the United States. Meanwhile, Muslim nations may be unwilling to criticize China because they need its political support and investment, experts said. Although some Muslim countries have endured a painful history under Western colonialism, they may be willing to overlook that China has effectively colonized the Uyghur homeland, Ma said.  “For them, the primary concern seems to be finding a method to counter the influence of the U.S. and the West,” he said. Translated by RFA Uyghur. Edited by Roseanne Gerin and Malcolm Foster.

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Government overconfidence could cloud a brighter future for Laos

Editor018 mins

It may sound  perverse to say – given that inflation in Laos has been at one of the highest rates in Asia since 2022, the national debt stands at more than 130 percent of GDP – but the second-poorest nation in Southeast Asia has many reasons for optimism. Tourism is likely to return to pre-pandemic levels this year. Its ASEAN chairmanship this year is greatly boosting its international profile—and, thus, international trade prospects.  Vientiane has sensibly bet on food exports to China, since China’s demographics are arguably the worst in the world and is set to have the fastest population decline in human history. Even today, China cannot feed itself. It imports around 65.8 percent of all foodstuff.   Although that was down from 93.6 percent in 2000, external demand is likely to rise in the coming years as its working-age population collapses, forcing even more rural folk into the cities and industries. It is therefore a solid bet by Vientiane that agriculture exports to China will grow in the coming decades. Its exports increased to $1.4 billion in 2023, up by a quarter from the previous year.  The Vientiane-Kunming railway has already expanded export opportunities into China. If Laos can attract interest from consumers further west, in Central Asia and Europe, it can use the railway links through China to increase trade.  Better still, if Laos can extend its rail network down to Thailand’s ports, again thanks to Chinese investment, that would make it easier and cheaper to export its goods further afield.  Travelers walk toward the first Beijing-Laos cross-border tourist train at the Beijing Railway Station on March 18, 2024. (Jia Tianyong/China News Service/VCG via Getty Images) Better than that, Vietnam has pledged to connect Laos via railways to its port in Vung Ang, which would make it easier for trans-Pacific exports, opening up Laos’ producers to the U.S. market.  Politically, too, the communist Lao People’s Revolutionary Party can be confident in its own monopoly on power. There is no meaningful resistance group among the diaspora or at home. Unlike communist Vietnam, there is nothing like a pro-democracy movement.  Perhaps most heartening for Vientiane, and something often overlooked, Laos has the youngest population of all the ASEAN states and the healthiest-looking demographics over the coming three decades.  Just 4.7 percent of the population is aged above 65. Some 65.4 percent are of working age (15-64) and 29.9 percent are below the age of 15. By 2050, the working age population will actually grow to 68 percent, while just a tenth will be of retirement age by that year.  Aged versus aging societies By comparison, in 2050, a fifth of Vietnam’s population will be aged 65 and over. In Thailand it will be around a third.  Laos won’t become an “aging society” – when 7 percent of the population is aged above 65 – until 2035. It won’t become an “aged society” – when the over-65 cohort is above 14 percent) – until 2059. One reason for this, however, is the country’s shorter life expectancy. Vietnam became an “aging” society in 2011; Thailand became “aged” in 2020. Moreover, when Thailand became an “aging” society in 2002 its GDP per capita was $2,091. Vietnam reached it in 2011 when its GDP per capita was $1,953.  Laos’ GDP per capita stands at $2,535, and it still has another decade or so before it touches “aging” society status. This means that Laos has at least 30 years before demographics start to bite, and even by 2050 there will still be double the number of youngsters aged 0-15 than retirees.  That gives Laos three decades to expand industry and output. For these reasons, political leaders in Vientiane often give off the air of extreme patience, as though they’re sitting pretty on borrowed time.  On the trade front, Laos achieved above 7 percent growth rates in the 2010s when its trade was almost entirely with its immediate neighbors. New infrastructure could open up vastly more markets and attract far more investment in industry and manufacturing, which remains nascent.  Young people splash water at each other in celebration of the Songkran festival in Vientiane, April 14, 2023. (Kaikeo Saiyasane/Xinhua via Getty Images) Railway connections to ports in neighboring countries can help Laos overcome its landlocked confinement at the same time as its workforce booms in number – with around 2 million Laotians to be added to the workforce by 2050.    However, not all is well. The economy has been shockingly bad since 2020, not all of which was caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.  The government and central bank have been incompetent in constraining inflation—and just about all other economic ailments.  The national debt started to climb to unmanageable levels by 2018. Laos imports too much and has barely any control over exports.  The government admits that close to a third of export revenue doesn’t reenter the country. Mostly it is funneled to foreign-owned companies, or profits are hidden, denying Laos a massive chunk of available taxes.  Education, tax collection concerns It’s unlikely that Laos can fully weaken itself off imports. Dispensing of its petroleum dependency would be sensible, given that Laos produces more than enough energy through its hydropower dams. But that means converting most transport and machinery to electric battery-powered, which is simply too expensive for most countries, not least Laos. It still also relies massively on imports for agricultural inputs such as fertilizers.  Since 2020, ever greater numbers of Laotians have left to find work abroad, mainly in Thailand. This has depopulated many rural communities, leaving the elderly to tend to the young. Many of those who have left are the better-educated.  At the same time, the education sector is now in poorer health than pre-2020, although government spending on education began to fall as a percentage of GDP much earlier. Non-attendance or absentee rates are high among students, and teacher numbers are dwindling.  It’s difficult to see how this generation of children, buffeted by the pandemic and shoddy schooling, will become as…

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China’s diplomatic reach dominated global index

Editor03 mins

China has the world’s farthest-reaching diplomatic network, according to a new study, closely followed by the United States. It has a bigger diplomatic footprint than its larger economic rival in Africa, East Asia and the Pacific islands, according to the Lowy Institute’s 2024 Global Diplomacy Index released Sunday. It also has a bigger presence in East Asia, following the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. Washington’s reach is more extensive in Europe, North and Central America and South Asia, with the same number of diplomatic posts as Beijing in the Middle East and South America, the survey found. China’s expansion has come at the expense of Taiwan, as China courts lower income nations with offers of infrastructure, economic and administrative assistance.  In January, Nauru switched diplomatic allegiance from Taipei to Beijing. The move by the tiny Pacific country reduced Taiwan’s diplomatic allies to 12 nations, including the Vatican, Paraguay and Eswatini. The index showed a rapid growth in diplomatic missions in the Pacific islands, seen as key geopolitical allies by the world’s two leading superpowers. “The Global Diplomacy Index shows that governments continue to invest in diplomacy to project power and achieve their interests,” said Ryan Neelam, the director of the Public Opinion and Foreign Policy Program at the Lowy Institute. “The ongoing rivalry between the United States and China is reflected in the superpowers’ dominance in the 2024 rankings, while geopolitical competition has propelled Asia and the Pacific into focus.” The index was launched in 2016. This year, it covers the diplomatic networks of 66 countries and territories in Asia, the Group of 20 nations and members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Data was collected between July and November last year. Edited by Taejun Kang.

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The case for seating overseas legislators in Southeast Asian parliaments

Editor012 mins

Around 1.7 million Indonesians living overseas are registered to vote in this month’s presidential and legislative elections, a mammoth task for the General Elections Commission, which has had to prepare 828 voting booths at Indonesian representative offices worldwide, as well as 1,579 mobile voting boxes and 652 drop boxes for absentee voting.  How many overseas Indonesians will actually turn out to vote is another matter, and will there be any further controversy after reports that ballots were given to overseas nationals too early? According to a review by the Philippines’ Commission on Elections published this month, of the estimated 10 million overseas Filipinos, only 1.6 million are registered to vote and only 600,000 (around 40 per cent) did so at the 2022 elections.  Expat Filipinos react as presidential candidate and former president Joseph Estrada speaks during a campaign event in Hong Kong, April 4, 2010. (Tyrone Siu/Reuters) Most Southeast Asian governments, at least the more democratic ones, are looking at ways of reforming how overseas nationals vote. The Philippines’ electoral commission says it intends to have an online voting system in place by 2025 for overseas nationals, although there is still talk that this might be cost-prohibitive and could require digital voting to be rolled out at home too, which is simply too difficult for the election commissions of most Southeast Asian countries for now.  In Malaysia, where overseas balloting has been in something of a mess for the past decade, parliamentarians last month hit on fixed-term parliaments as one way to fix the problem.  However, it might be worth pondering why overseas voters are still asked to vote for representatives in parliament who live hundreds of miles away from them, whose priority is to represent constituents back at home, and who may know nothing about the concerns of overseas nationals.  Constituencies mismatched In Indonesia, for instance, votes from overseas Indonesians go to deciding the seven seats in the House of Representatives sent by Jakarta II district. (Jakarta II, which is Central and South Jakarta, was chosen because that’s where the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is located.)  This may actually be superior to how other Southeast Asian states count overseas ballots – indeed, at least the seven congresspeople from Jakarta II district know they’re supposed to represent overseas constituents. Compare that to Thailand, where overseas voters select the candidates in the constituency where they are from or were registered, so a Thai living in London but who hails from, say, Chiang Mai province votes for the MPs from Chiang Mai province. But how can the MP from Chiang Mai province be expected to adequately represent overseas electors when perhaps only 0.1% of the ballots cast for them came from overseas? An Indonesian voter receives a ballot-slip at the Indonesian Embassy in Singapore to vote in presidential election, July 8, 2009 (Wong Maye-E/AP) Why not, instead, make overseas voters a separate district and allocate six or seven seats solely for them? They could have one seat for an MP representing Indonesians in North America, another for Indonesians in Europe, another for those in Northeast Asia, another for Southeast Asia, and so forth.  And these seats would be occupied by candidates who live overseas. Imagine the Indonesian congressperson who resides in Berlin, New York, Seoul, or Melbourne. They obviously would be able to understand better the concerns and problems facing other Indonesians living abroad.  Aloof from local politics There’s a democratic element to this, too. An overseas MP wouldn’t have to mix daily with their peers in Manila, Kuala Lumpur or Jakarta. They would, on the one hand, remain aloof from the politicking and palm-greasing back home and, on the other hand, be able to bring new ideas learned from abroad back to their capitals.  They could attend parliamentary sessions every month or two, funded by the state, and spend most of their time abroad, where they could also work more closely with their country’s embassies in the regions they represent.  Officials check documentation of Indonesians living in Malaysia as they stand to cast overseas ballots ahead of the Indonesia’s general election, in Kuala Lumpur, April 14, 2019. (Mohd Rasfan/AFP) Currently, almost 10 million overseas Filipinos are represented by several government bodies, such as the Commission on Filipinos Overseas, an agency under the Office of the President. However, having overseas MPs in parliament would provide another layer of representation for nationals living abroad, allowing their voices to be heard by the government bodies and by overseas-based elected representatives.  Indeed, protecting the large population of overseas Filipinos is one of the three pillars of Manila’s foreign policy initially laid out in the 1990s, yet those emigrants have little legislative representation.  It isn’t a revolutionary idea to have overseas-based MPs represent overseas voters. France’s National Assembly has eleven lawmakers representing overseas constituencies. Italy’s parliament has had eight.  Global examples Nor is it specifically a European idea. The Algerian parliament has eight MPs who represent overseas nationals. Angola, Cape Verde, Mozambique, Peru and Tunisia, to name but a few, also have some parliamentary seats set aside for overseas constituencies.  To quickly rebut one argument against it, it would not require a massive change to the composition of parliaments, nor would it require too many administrative changes. At the most, we’re talking about less than ten seats, so a fraction of parliament in a country like Thailand, whose National Assembly has 500 seats! Philippine Senate president Juan Ponce Enrile looks at a tally board during the counting of overseas votes for presidential and vice-presidential candidates at the House of Representatives in Manila, May 28, 2010. (Romeo Ranoco/Reuters) But if electoral commissions are now pondering ideas to better include their overseas nationals in the democratic process, it might be worth considering the more affordable and, perhaps, more democratic option of giving a handful of seats in parliament to overseas representatives.  Nor, indeed, would it be a terrible idea if campaigners in Southeast Asia’s autocracies suggested this as a rational way of protecting their overseas compatriots –…

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N Korea closes diplomatic missions in Bangladesh, DR Congo: reports

Editor04 mins

In a further shutdown of diplomatic missions, North Korea has been closing down its embassies in Bangladesh and the Democratic Republic of Congo, media reports showed.  As of May 2023, North Korea operated a total of 53 foreign missions, but since then, media reports have confirmed the closure of North Korean embassies and consulates in as many as a dozen locations, including those in countries Pyongyang views as longtime allies. The North shut down its embassy in Dhaka on Nov. 20 and informed the Bangladeshi government that its embassy in India would assume responsibility for the relevant affairs, according to a Bangladeshi daily, The Daily Star, on Nov. 26. The paper quoted a Bangladeshi foreign ministry official as saying the North’s move would not affect Bangladesh “in any way” since it does not have any notable trade relations with Pyongyang.  The two countries established diplomatic relations in 1973. The North Korean embassy in Bangladesh consisted of four diplomats, including the ambassador. Bangladesh does not have its mission in North Korea and maintains diplomatic relations with it through the Bangladesh embassy in China. Separately, NK News reported on Nov. 28 that the North Korean embassy in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is “set to close” and its operations will be handled by the embassy in Ethiopia, citing a spokesman for the country’s foreign ministry. But the spokesman said the North did not give a reason for the embassy closure. “Tightened international sanctions on North Korea have hampered its ability to earn foreign currency, making it difficult to maintain its diplomatic missions,” an official from South Korea’s Ministry of Unification, which oversees inter-Korean relations, said in October. “This is a glimpse of North Korea’s dire economic situation, where it is difficult to maintain even minimal diplomatic relations with traditional allies,” the ministry official said.  But amid the speculation over its finances, a North Korean foreign ministry spokesperson said on Nov. 3 that it is in the process of “closing and opening” diplomatic missions in other countries, and this is a normal part of the business of sovereign nations. “We will continue to take the necessary diplomatic steps in the context of the prospective development of our external relations in line with the evolving international environment,” the spokesperson said at that time.  Edited by Mike Firn and Elaine Chan.

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51 nations blast China over violating Uyghurs’ rights

Editor08 mins

In a joint statement, 51 countries, including the United States, expressed deep concern to the United Nations on Wednesday over Chinese human rights violations of Uyghurs in its far-western Xinjiang region. The move comes after China was elected to the U.N. Human Rights Council for the 2024-2026 term – despite its poor track record in protecting rights. “Members of Uyghur and other predominantly Muslim minorities in Xinjiang continue to suffer serious violations of their human rights by the authorities of the People’s Republic of China,” said the statement, which was delivered by James Kariuki, Britain’s U.N. ambassador. It urged China to respond to an August 2022 report issued by the U.N. Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, or OHCHR, which concluded China’s mass detentions of Uyghurs and other predominantly Muslim minorities on a large scale in Xinjiang “may constitute international crimes, in particular crimes against humanity.” The report found that “serious human rights violations” have been committed in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region amid the Chinese government’s claims of countering terrorism and extremism. The assessment cited evidence of invasive surveillance on the basis of religion and ethnicity, restrictions on cultural and religious practices, torture and ill-treatment of detainees, forced abortion and sterilization of Muslim women, enforced disappearances, family separations, and forced labor, the statement noted. “Over a year has passed since that assessment was released and yet China has not engaged in any constructive discussion of these findings,” said the statement issued at the U.N.’s Third Committee, which meets annually in early October to deal with human rights, humanitarian affairs and social matters.   In its recommendations, the OHCHR had called on the Chinese government to release detainees from camps and other detention facilities, issue details about the location of Uyghurs in Xinjiang who have been out of touch with relatives abroad, allow travel so families can be reunited, and investigate allegations of human rights abuses. ‘Strong remedial action’ At the most recent session of the U.N’s Human Rights Council in September, Volker Türk, the current high commissioner for human rights, called on China to follow the recommendations of the assessment and take “strong remedial action.” Maya Wang, associate director of the Asia division at Human Rights Watch, said maintaining pressure on China is part of a continued effort to hold the country accountable for its actions in Xinjiang. “Suffice it to say that moving a government as abusive and powerful as China’s takes a lot of effort and time, and that pressing the U.N. to keep prioritizing human rights in its interactions with China is part of this long and hard effort,” she told Radio Free Asia. Women walk past a propaganda slogan promoting ethnic unity in ‘the new era,’ in both Chinese and Uyghur languages, in Yarkand, northwestern China’s Xinjiang region, July 18, 2023. Credit: Pedro Paro/AFP The New York-based right group called on U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres on Monday to press Chinese President Xi Jinping to end crimes against humanity in Xinjiang and other serious rights abuses in China, during a visit to Beijing to attend the third Belt and Road Forum on Oct. 17-18. “Since becoming secretary-general in 2017, Guterres has shown reluctance to publicly criticize the Chinese government for its severe and worsening repression,” HRW said in a statement. Growing number Dolkun Isa, president of the World Uyghur Congress, welcomed the joint U.N. statement, noting that a few African and South American countries have signed this year’s statement condemning China’s atrocities against Uyghurs.  “In 2019, there were only 20 countries that signed on to the joint statement,” he said.  “Despite China’s efforts to spread disinformation to cover up it genocide against Uyghurs by increasing tourism, inviting friendly diplomats and journalists to the region, the fact that there are more countries signed on to this joint statement this time proves the complete failure of China’s disinformation campaign,” he said. Luke de Pulford, executive director of Inter-parliamentary Alliance on China, said the latest statement should not be confused with action.  “We shouldn’t be fooled,” he told RFA. “It’s good that the U.K. should be applauded for taking some symbolic action, but these statements do not achieve accountability. It shouldn’t be confused and conflated with accountability.”  Xinjiang regional expert Adrian Zenz agreed that “writing a letter was good, but it cost you nothing,” he tweeted on X, formerly known as Twitter.  “You are not paying any actual price for your values,” he wrote. “Actions speak louder than words. Actions could include: Effective forced labor ban. Legal atrocity determination. Sanctioning higher level officials.”    Translated by RFA Uyghur. Edited by Roseanne Gerin and Malcolm Foster.

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Another brick wobbles in China’s Great Wall of debt

Editor012 mins

As China’s economic miracle has unraveled over the past several years, property giant Country Garden Holdings appeared to be an unassailable fortress redoubt. Rival Evergrande tried to restructure its debt, failed, and now its founder, Hui Ka Yan, once the richest man in China, is under house arrest. But Country Garden, until very recently, was considered safe as houses. On Tuesday the walls of the Country Garden redoubt crumbled, as the property giant missed a HK$470 million (US$60 million) loan repayment and issued a statement on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange warning that it wasn’t going to be able to repay all of its creditors – not even those that had extended it a grace period. The company has about US$200 billion in liabilities and close to US$10 billion in debt, it said in the Tuesday statement. “I think it’s not so much ‘final straw’ as ‘high profile symbol’ of the structural reversal in China’s property market bust. But it’s also possible that because of that, confidence in this fragile market will be further undermined,” said George Magnus, research associate at the China Centre, Oxford University, and the School of African and Oriental Studies in London. “The knock-on effects of a property bust in a market that’s as big as China’s are going to be remarkable,” added Magnus. “There simply isn’t anything that can compensate [for the problem] because nothing – least of all Xi’s new productive forces – is sufficiently big. It’ll keep the Chinese economy on a low-growth path with all the attendant consequences for unemployment, absent a major program of market reforms, which Xi is opposed to.” Chinese President Xi Jinping is famously opposed to “welfarism,” which he reportedly equates with laziness. A person rides a scooter past a construction site of residential buildings by Chinese developer Country Garden, in Tianjin, China Aug. 18, 2023. Credit: Reuters   Markets have found some solace in announcements emanating out of Beijing, suggesting that stimulus is on the way, but analysts are skeptical even though Hong Kong and Shanghai stocks rallied on Thursday, after China’s investment fund had bought a stake in the country’s banking giants. Bill Bishop of the widely read Sinocism newsletter commented, “The relatively small investment by Huijin in the four banks – 477 million RMB, about USD $65 million – is not meaningful financially,” adding that the investment fund Huijin had bought similar stakes in the past with the probable aim of achieving a short-term boost to stock values. ‘All the money in the world’ “They’ll respond with some stimulus but there isn’t enough money in the world to make a difference,” said Anne Stevenson-Yang, founder and research director at J Capital Research, “Consider,” she said: “If they lend an extra 1 trillion yuan (US$137 billion) – and bank lending is around 90% of financing in this economy – you get less than a 1% boost in credit. “Basically, so what?” Oxford’s Magnus agreed. “The speculation is that the central government will use its own balance sheet to announce a stimulus program of about 1 trillion yuan or about 0.7% GDP to breathe new life into the economy,” he said. “If it goes, as in the past, towards infrastructure and real estate projects, it’ll spur activity in the short term but leave China’s structural malaise worse. “What China needs is household demand and income stimulus, but this has been studiously avoided so far – and it’s not the CCP’s way.” Stevenson-Yang said, “We’re not going to see a bank failure, because they [the Communist Party] can control that. But the whole shadow sector has collapsed or is collapsing, and that erases a lot of personal wealth. “And local services are going away,” she added in a reference to the belt-tightening forced on local governments, which have even been reducing civil service salaries to make ends meet. Michael Pettis, Carnegie Endowment economist, writing on X, formerly known as Twitter, pointed out that there may be hidden liabilities for the banking sector with as-yet unknown consequences. “Mounting damage to banks’ balance sheets from the property meltdown could also make stabilizing other parts of the economy more difficult,” Pettis said. “This is likely to be what causes the most long-term damage to the economy … There is likely to be a lot more exposure in less direct forms. That’s because after three decades of soaring prices, it would be astonishing if Chinese banks didn’t have a lot of indirect exposure to the property market, partly reflected for example in the RMB 3.4 trillion in supplier trade payables estimated by Gavekal,” he wrote referring to research by Gavekal Research. The firm predicted that China’s property sector owes 3.4 trillion yuan in trade payables to their suppliers. “The major damage to the economy caused by a property sector collapse usually occurs not directly through the property sector but indirectly, through wealth effects and, above all, the impact on the banking system,” said Pettis. “With one of the biggest property sectors in history, and perhaps the most expensive real estate bubble since Japan in the 1980s, I’d be really surprised if we were near the end of the adjustment process.” Stability above all In its Tuesday statement Country Garden admitted, referring to its inability to meet debt commitments, “Such non-payment may lead to relevant creditors of the group demanding acceleration of payment of the relevant indebtedness owed to them or pursuing enforcement action.” A Chinese flag flutters in front of the logo of China Evergrande Group seen on the Evergrande Center in Shanghai, China September 22, 2021. Credit: Reuters   Property developer Evergrande’s collapse led to widespread “mortgage strikes” and protests China-wide in 2021 and 2022. The fear in Beijing is that Country Garden, which is heavily invested in third- and fourth-tier cities, where the economic crisis is at its worst, will lead to yet more protests. “The first and utmost priority of Xi and the CCP [Chinese Communist Party] is to maintain power, which means maintaining order and stability,” said Australia-based…

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Hamas fighters may be using North Korean weapons, experts say

Editor010 mins

Experts say that Hamas militants may be using North Korean weapons after footage emerged of a fighter from the Palestinian group carrying a rocket-launcher suspected to originate from the communist nation. The video, recorded shortly after deadly attacks on Israel started last weekend and shared widely on social media, shows several men sitting in the back of a pickup truck brandishing weapons above a face-down, partially clothed woman. A rocket-launcher held by one of the fighters was identified as North Korean in origin by a military and weapons blogger with the handle War Noir in a post on X, formerly Twitter. “A recent video recorded today shows members of the Al-Qassam Brigades (#HAMAS) in #Gaza Strip,” War Noir wrote on Oct. 7. “One of the members can be seen with an uncommon F-7 HE-Frag rocket, originally produced in #NorthKorea (#DPRK).”  RFA was not able to conclusively determine if the weapon was North Korean, but its shape closely resembles the F-7 as depicted in the North Korean Small Arms and Light Weapons Recognition Guide published in May by the Geneva-based Small Arms Survey research project. Experts said that Palestinians have historically used North Korean weapons, which may have been first purchased by Iran or Syria, and then smuggled to the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip, circumventing an Israeli-Egyptian embargo that has been in place since 2005. “The Syrians deal with Hezbollah a lot and Hezbollah deals with Hamas a lot,” said Bruce E. Bechtol Jr., a former intelligence officer for the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency. “A lot of the trade that North Korea does with both Hamas and Hezbollah is deals that they make through the IRGC, the Iranian Republican Guard Corps,” he said.  Used in the region In its recent attacks on Israelis, Hamas used weapons originating in a wide range of current and former states, including the United States, the Soviet Union, and North Korea, said N.R. Jenzen-Jones, director of the Armament Research Services intelligence consultancy, or ARES. A preliminary analysis of images reviewed by this consultancy shows “a militant armed with an RPG-7 type shoulder-fired recoilless gun, loaded with an F-7 series high explosive fragmentation (HE-FRAG) munition, produced in North Korea,” Jenzen-Jones said. “These have previously been documented in the region, including in Syria, Iraq, and in the Gaza Strip.” Other images showed militants using what appeared to be a North Korean Type 58 self-loading rifle, a derivative of the well-known AK series, he said. “North Korean arms have previously been documented amongst interdicted supplies provided by Iran to militant groups, and this is believed to be the primary way in which DPRK weapons have come into the possession of Palestinian militants,” he said.  “North Korean arms have previously been identified in the hands of the militant factions of Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine, amongst other groups,” he added. Bechtol said that a North Korean arms shipment was intercepted in Thailand in 2009. A U.N. panel of experts determined the 35 tons of conventional arms and munitions was headed to Iran, and Israeli intelligence believed it was ultimately bound for Hamas and Lebanon-based Hezbollah. Bechtol said the shipment contained rocket propelled grenades, larger rockets, and the F-7.  “The North Koreans have also sold the ‘BULSAE’ antitank system to Hamas. It’s a very good antitank system and they could be firing that at Israeli tanks when they’re entering the Gaza Strip here within the next day or two,” said Bechtol. “So North Korea has given them some capabilities that are interesting.” The woman whose body was seen in the video was identified by her family as 22-year old German-Israeli citizen Shani Louk, who was abducted by Hamas militants when they attacked a music festival in Israel close to the Gaza border.  She is believed to be alive, but in critical condition at a hospital in Gaza, according to Palestinian sources her mother told German outlet Bild on Tuesday. But Israeli, German or Palestinian officials have not yet confirmed her status or whereabouts.  North Korea blames Israel North Korean media, meanwhile, blamed the recent violence on Israel’s “ceaseless criminal acts” against the Palestinian people. According to a report in the state-run Rodong Sinmun newspaper on Tuesday, “a large-scale armed conflict broke out between Palestine’s Islamic resistance movement and Israel.”  “The international community called the conflict the result of Israel’s ceaseless criminal acts against the Palestinian people,” and said that the “fundamental” way to end the bloody conflict is to create an independent Palestinian state.  That Hamas is using North Korean weapons is not surprising, Bruce Bennett, a defense researcher at the RAND Corporation think tank, told RFA.   “North Korea is selling things wherever it can to make hard currency,” said Bennett. “Whether North Korea directly provided it to Hamas or provided it through a third party, I don’t know. But the fact that there is North Korean equipment there does not surprise me at all.” ‘Commercial relationship’ Bennett said the F-7 rocket is an anti-personnel weapon and causes maximum casualties. “It’s not intended to, like, penetrate a tank,” he said. “It’s intended to cause fragmentation, like a terrorist bomb, and maximize the effect against people.” Even though Hamas appears to be using North Korean weapons, it would be inaccurate to describe them as allies, he said. “It’s a commercial relationship which is fed by the politics as well by North Korea being anxious to hurt the United States and anything associated with the United States,” said Bennett.  “The scary part of this though is as you think about the future, does North Korea have people on the ground with Hamas watching them do what they’re doing?” he said.  “Is North Korea thinking about doing this kind of thing to South Korea? We clearly don’t know at this stage, but I don’t think we can ignore that possibility.” Translated by Claire Shinyoung Oh Lee. Additional reporting by Eugene Whong. Edited by Eugene Whong and Malcolm Foster.

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Investigative Journalism Reportika © March 2022 by Ij-Reportika is licensed under CC BY 4.0