Month: March 2023

Taiwan’s military is bolstering its preparation for a possible future war with China by planning an unprecedented military drill at a civilian airport this coming July, the official Central News Agency (CNA) reported. The military aircraft emergency landing and takeoff drill will be staged at Taitung Fengnian Airport on the southeast coast of Taiwan. The scenario is that Taiwan’s military airports and airstrips would be severely damaged in attacks by mainland China, forcing fighter-jets to land at civilian airports or on highways, the CNA quoted an unnamed military source as saying. The military is looking to turn a section of Highway 9 “into an emergency landing strip” and a section of a road in Taitung County into an emergency runway, the same source said. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense has not commented on the details because of the sensitivity of the issue. The drill at Taitung Fengnian Airport will be carried out as part of the annual Han Kuang military exercise, held in July. Han Kuang, Taiwan’s major war games, tests the island’s combat capabilities against a possible Chinese invasion. China considers the democratic island of Taiwan one of its provinces and intends to reunite with the mainland, by force if necessary. In response to any major political events or to any support given to Taiwan by its allies, China regularly holds live-fire exercises in the Taiwan Strait or intensifies the flyovers by its military aircraft. When Nancy Pelosi, the first U.S. House Speaker to visit Taiwan in 25 years, arrived in Taipei last August, Beijing announced a week-long military exercise around the island. ‘No unusual military movements’ Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen is en route to Central America via the United States, and is to make a stopover in California on her way back to Taiwan from a visit to Guatemala and Belize. While in California, she is expected to meet with the incumbent U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.  Beijing has threatened retaliation, with China’s Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson, Zhu Fenglian, saying that if the meeting took place, China would “definitely take measures to resolutely fight back.”  Yet on Thursday, Taiwan National Security Bureau Director General Tsai Ming-yen told the parliament that “the government expected a less severe reaction” from Beijing than when Pelosi visited Taiwan. Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen speaks during a dinner reception in New York, March 30, 2023. Credit: Taiwan Presidential Office via AP On Friday, the defense ministry said only two Chinese military aircraft and three naval vessels were spotted overnight near Taiwan and none had crossed the median line in the Taiwan Strait that marks the de facto boundary between the island and the mainland. But on Friday morning, nine PLA aircraft crossed the line, the ministry announced. U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby on Wednesday urged China not to use Tsai’s transit “as a pretext to step up any activity around the Taiwan Strait.” Meanwhile, “the Americans are belatedly trying to figure out how to defend Taiwan,” said Grant Newsham, author of a new book on a potential Taiwan conflict, “When China Attacks: A Warning to America.” “The People’s Liberation Army is capable of launching an assault across the Taiwan Strait, and it – or more importantly, Xi Jinping, thinks it can succeed,” Newsham, a retired Marine colonel who’s extensively studied the cross-strait military situation, told Radio Free Asia (RFA). “China has been planning and getting ready to invade Taiwan for at least the last few decades,” he said. “The PLA will hit Taiwan hard and fast while isolating Taiwan electronically and physically,” Newsham added. “It will intimidate the Americans into standing clear.” In his opinion, the upcoming Taiwan presidential election in January 2024 is particularly important. “If a ‘pro-China’ candidate wins, Beijing just might back off and rely on their Taiwanese proxies to force Taiwan to give in and accept mainland dominance,” the analyst said. “But if the candidate that wants to stay free from Chinese communist dominance wins, I would expect Beijing to use force against Taiwan.”

Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen has wasted little time since touching down in New York on Wednesday, delivering one speech shortly after her arrival with a second set for Thursday night. But it’s been hard to nail down the details.  The controversial “transit” through America’s biggest city – en route, apparently, to official visits in Taiwanese allies Guatemala and Belize – is in part taking place behind closed doors, with press not invited. “They are very serious about keeping this a private event,” said Patrick Cronin, the Asia-Pacific security chair at the Hudson Institute, which is hosting Tsai’s speech at the Intercontinental Hotel. Taiwanese officials, Cronin told Radio Free Asia, did not want to create “unnecessary pressure and dissent” with a public speech, with Tsai also set to be presented with a global leadership award. “TECRO set the rules,” he said, referring to the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office, Taiwan’s de facto embassy. “It’s not Hudson setting the rules,” he said, but “the Taiwan government.” Careful diplomacy Tsai appears to be walking a fine line, advocating Taiwan’s case against Beijing during her trip while avoiding prodding it too much. Chinese officials have already warned of “countermeasures” after the visit, and even of a “serious, serious, serious confrontation.” Each of Tsai’s previous six “transits” through the United States – one in 2016, two in 2017, another in 2018, and two in 2019 – attracted far less attention, coming at times of relative calm in U.S.-China relations. Dennis Wilder, research fellow with the U.S.-China Dialogue on Global Issues at Georgetown University and a former CIA deputy assistant director for East Asia and the Pacific, told RFA on Tuesday that the “kind of events” Tsai holds this time would shape Beijing’s reaction. “For example,” Wilder said, “if she were to give speeches where there would be live coverage of the speech, that would be a new kind of step; were she to give speeches that were incendiary in some way from Beijing’s point of view … we could see a harsh reaction.” The few snippets of Tsai’s visit that has taken place in the public eye so far have largely been tame, avoiding Taiwanese independence and other themes that could complicate U.S.-China relations. In an earlier speech to supporters after arriving Wednesday, Tsai thanked the United States for its support and vowed to continue working with Taiwan’s partners in the face of threats from Beijing. “At this juncture, our partnerships with the United States and other democracies are more critical than ever,” Tsai said in the speech. “We know that we are stronger when we stand together in solidarity with fellow democracies. Taiwan cannot be isolated.” Thawing relations Her trip comes at a fraught time for ties between Washington and Beijing, with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken canceling a trip to Beijing at the last minute on Feb. 4 after an alleged Chinese spy balloon was discovered floating across the United States. However, U.S. officials insist the trip was only “postponed,” and there are already signs Beijing and Washington are seeking a new date. Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen departs the Lotte Hotel in Manhattan in New York, Thursday, March 30, 2023. (Reuters) Rick Waters, deputy assistant secretary of state for China and Taiwan and the head of the State Department’s “China House,” last week paid a visit to China, meeting Chinese counterparts in Beijing, Shanghai and Hong Kong, department spokesman Vedant Patel said on Tuesday. “It was a working-level discussion,” Patel said, “about a wide range of issues that we have as it relates to our bilateral relationship.” Such a thawing gives U.S. officials reason to avoid an incident. In a call with reporters about Tsai’s trip on Thursday morning, Daniel Kritenbrink, the assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, said U.S. officials had offered guidance to their Taiwanese counterparts about Tsai’s “transit” through the United States. But he declined to say if they had advised against public speeches. “We are committed to making sure that President Tsai’s seventh transit of the United States is conducted smoothly and successfully, and we have worked closely with many of our Taiwan friends and counterparts to ensure that that is the case,” Kritenbrink said. “If you have any questions on the specifics of any event that will take place during President Tsai’s transits,” he said, “I would refer you to the Taiwan authorities and to those associated with the event itself.” Cutting room floor Even with the private nature of Tsai’s speeches, attacks from Chinese officials about the visit have continued since her arrival. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told reporters at a press briefing in Beijing on Thursday that the trip “gravely undermines China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and sends a seriously wrong message to ‘Taiwan independence’ separatists.”  Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning [shown in this file photo] said Thursday that Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s trip “sends a seriously wrong message to ‘Taiwan independence’ separatists.” (Reuters) “This once again shows that the fundamental cause of the new round of tensions in the Taiwan Strait is the Taiwan authorities’ repeated attempt to solicit U.S. support for Taiwan independence and the fact that some in the U.S. intend to use Taiwan to contain China,” Mao said.  “The Taiwan question is the very core of China’s core interests,” she added, “the bedrock of the political foundation of China-U.S. relations, and the first red line that must not be crossed in the relationship.” Xu Xueyuan, charge d’affaires at the Chinese embassy in Washington, also reportedly said Tsai’s visit could cause a “serious confrontation.”  “The so-called ‘transit’ is merely a disguise to her true intention of seeking breakthrough and advocating Taiwan independence,” Xu was quoted as saying by Axios. Tsai’s trip, he added, “could lead to serious, serious, serious confrontation in the U.S.-China relationship.” Return ticket The worst from Beijing may be yet to come. Tsai departs New York for Guatemala at 11 a.m. on Friday and returns Tuesday to Los Angeles, where…

Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen arrived in New York on Wednesday amid a war of words between Washington and Beijing about her visit and threats of unspecified “countermeasures” from a Chinese official. Tsai touched down just before 3 p.m. at John F. Kennedy International Airport and was ushered by security into the Lotte New York Palace hotel on Madison Avenue – past throngs of tussling protesters and supporters being watched closely by police – shortly after 4 p.m.  Armed with banners and loudspeakers, protesters led by the New York Alliance for China’s Peaceful Reunification, a local pro-Beijing group, had arrived early in the day and set up positions along the street. By the time of Tsai’s arrival, the group easily outnumbered Tsai’s supporters, most of whom did not arrive until about half an hour before the Taiwanese president, and though arguments broke out amid a tense mood, police kept the two groups separate. A member of the local Chinese community who requested anonymity due to safety concerns told Radio Free Asia he had received a telephone call from the Chinese Consulate in New York asking him to attend the protest to “safeguard the unity of the motherland.” Travel itinerary Tsai spends two nights in New York, delivering a speech and receiving a leadership award at the Hudson Institute on Thursday, before departing Friday for official visits to Guatemala and Belize. She returns on Tuesday to Los Angeles for two more nights in the United States, where she will deliver a speech to the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library and meet House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Protestors look on as Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen, not pictured, arrives at her hotel in New York City on Wednesday, March 29, 2023. (AFP) The trip comes amid tensions between China and the United States over Taiwan in the past year, with U.S. officials accusing Beijing of preparing to invade the self-governing island in the coming years and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi last year visiting the island. It’s not the first time a Taiwanese leader has “transited” the United States, with the practice starting in the 1990s, but Beijing appears irked by Tsai’s plans to deliver two speeches and meet McCarthy, who has himself suggested he could repeat Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. Countermeasures The response from Beijing – which views Tsai’s trip as part of a growing effort by Taiwan to assert independence – has already been vexed, with a particular fury reserved for the McCarthy meeting. During a press conference on Wednesday, Zhu Fenglian, spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office of China’s State Council, threatened “countermeasures” if Tsai meets with McCarthy. “If she has contact with U.S. House Speaker McCarthy, it will be another provocation that seriously violates the ‘One China’ principle, harms China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and destroys peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait,” Zhu said before Tsai’s departure.  “We firmly oppose this and will take resolute countermeasures.” Supporters look on as Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen, not pictured, arrives at her hotel in New York City on Wednesday, March 29, 2023. (AFP) But U.S. officials say the “transit” – Tsai’s seventh time in the United States as Taiwan’s leader – does not constitute an official visit. Instead, they insist that Taiwan’s leader is visiting in a private capacity, and say it’s a standard practice for leaders of the democratic island.  Beijing, though, regards Taiwan a renegade province and has threatened to forcibly “reunite” it with the mainland, and says American relations with Taiwan violate a 50-year-old agreement. Chinese officials also deny that such “transits” are standard. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said Wednesday that the United States was “hollowing out the ‘One China’ principle” and that “past mistakes do not justify any new mistake.” “The ones who are creating the problem and making provocations is not China, but the U.S. and the ‘Taiwan independence’ separatists,” Mao said. “We urge the U.S. to abide by the ‘One China’ principle.” Mao called on the United States to “earnestly deliver on its leaders’ commitment of not supporting ‘Taiwan independence’ or ‘two Chinas’ or ‘One China, one Taiwan,’ stop all forms of official interaction with Taiwan,” and to stop “upgrading” its relationship with Taiwan. ‘External pressure’ Leaving Taiwan on Wednesday, Tsai pledged not to be swayed. “I want to tell the whole world democratic Taiwan will resolutely safeguard the values of freedom and democracy, and will continue to be a force for good in the world, continuing a cycle of goodness, strengthening the resilience of democracy in the world,” Tsai said.  “External pressure,” she added, in reference to the backlash from Beijing, would not “obstruct” Taiwan’s engagement with the world. Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen waves to the media before her departure for New York at Taoyuan International Airport in Taoyuan, Taiwan, Wednesday, March 29, 2023. (Reuters) U.S. officials say Tsai will not meet with anyone from the Biden administration during her six days in total on American soil. State Department principal deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel reiterated Wednesday that Tsai’s trip was “consistent with our unofficial nature of relations with Taiwan” and did not alter “our ‘One China’ policy,” which diverges from Beijing’s “One China” principle. “There is no reason to take countermeasures; there’s no reason for Beijing to turn this transit, which is consistent with long-standing U.S. policy, into something it’s not, or to overreact,” Patel told reporters.  “We oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo, from either side. We don’t support Taiwan independence and we continue to expect that cross-strait differences be resolved through peaceful means.” But Patel declined to comment on McCarthy’s plans, saying they were his prerogative as a leader of a “co-equal branch of government.” Edited by Malcolm Foster