Category: Europe

The Russian and Ukrainian ambassadors have turned Indonesia – this year’s G20 chair – into a diplomatic battlefield by holding tit-for-tat press briefings, becoming regulars at local newsrooms and giving interviews to present their versions of what’s happening in the actual warzone.  Take the case of an in-person press conference last week by Lyudmila Vorebieva, Russia’s envoy here. During the interaction with reporters, she claimed that her country’s forces did not target civilians in Ukraine and the Western media had published fake news. When asked to respond, Ukrainian Ambassador Vasyl Hamianin shot back. He called Vorebieva a liar and war criminal who had “reserved a place in hell.”  The reason for this diplomatic battle is Indonesia’s position as holder of the 2022 presidency of the Group of Twenty leading economies, said Radityo Dharmaputra, an international relations lecturer at Airlangga University in Surabaya.  “For Russia, Indonesia is important because they need to show that not all countries support Ukraine,” Radityo told BenarNews.  “For Ukraine, they need support from countries other than Europe and the United States.” And Indonesia? It does not have an incentive to support either side, partly because its citizens have no affinity with Russians or Ukrainians, Radityo said.  “Indonesia’s foreign policy tradition in such a situation is to play it safe,” he said. Indonesia voted for a United Nations General Assembly resolution in March that condemned Moscow’s military strike on Ukraine. But, at the same time, Jakarta has not ever directly criticized Russia or used the word “invasion.”  And still, Indonesia has been drawn into a tug of war between the United States and the European Union on one side and Russia and China on the other, by virtue of being this year’s G20 president.  The U.S. and other Western countries wanted Russia expelled from the group, while China said no member had the right to expel another country. U.S. President Joe Biden said Ukraine should be able to participate in the G20 summit, which is scheduled for mid-November in Bali, if Russia is not expelled. Indonesia has been reluctant to disinvite Russia, but has asked Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the president of Ukraine, which is not a G20 member, as a guest.  The Ukrainian government has said that Zelenskyy’s attendance at the G20 summit would “depend mainly on the situation in the battlefield.”  In April, Indonesian President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo said that Russian President Vladimir Putin would attend the summit,  although the Kremlin had not confirmed his participation. Russian Ambassador to Indonesia Lyudmila Vorobieva gestures while talking to journalists as Defense Attache Sergey Zhevnovatyi listens during a news conference at the Russian Embassy in Jakarta, March 23, 2022. Credit: Reuters Meanwhile, Moscow’s and Kyiv’s ambassadors to Jakarta launched dueling diplomatic offensives to court Indonesia and its people. In March, both Vorobieva and Hamianin visited the headquarters of Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), Indonesia’s largest Islamic organization that boasts 80 million followers, only a day apart. They met with NU’s new chairman, Yahya Cholil Staquf, a former advisor to Jokowi.   The two have also given “exclusive” interviews to various Indonesian media outlets. At last week’s press conference, Vorobieva repeated Moscow’s assertions that what happened in Ukraine was the result of the West’s “anti-Russian project.”  “They’re actually spreading terror, people were fearing and are still fearing. You will not see that in the Western media, but we see it every day,” she said.  Hamianin laughed off Vorobieva’s allegations.  “She doesn’t look ignorant. That’s why she’s just a liar, right?” Hamianin told BenarNews in a phone interview.  “The oppression Russia committed over Ukraine during the last 30 years, the non-stop blackmailing, nonstop humiliation, like territorial attacks and all that, especially the last eight years … is what turned Ukraine into anti-Russia,” he said.  “Because we don’t accept the aggressors. We don’t accept liars, murderers, and rapists.” He described Vorobieva’s claim that Ukraine’s government backed Nazis as “disgusting.”  “I’m absolutely sure that by saying this, she booked her personal seat on the bench of war criminals in The Hague tribunal, and definitely reserved a place in hell,” he said, referring to the International Court of Justice, based in the Netherlands.  Hikmahanto Juwana, an international law professor at the University of Indonesia, said winning the hearts and minds of people in the world’s fourth most populous country was important for Russia and Ukraine.  “The Indonesian public needs to be propagandized so that the government takes a position that is in line with public aspirations,” Hikmahanto told BenarNews.  Alvin Prasetyo in Jakarta contributed to this report by BenarNews, an RFA-affiliated online news service.

The future rules of the international order are playing out in Ukraine’s war zones, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the Shangri-La Dialogue security forum in Singapore as he rallied support for his country Saturday in its fight against Russia’s invading forces.   The Ukrainian leader appeared on a giant screen as he addressed delegates from 40 countries, who were attending Asia’s preeminent international security forum, via a video-link from an undisclosed location in the capital Kyiv.  “I am grateful for your support … but this support is not only for Ukraine, but for you as well,” said Zelenskyy, who wore a black t-shirt as he spoke to delegates dressed in formal clothes. “It is on the battlefields of Ukraine that the future rules of this world are being decided along with the boundaries of the possible.” The Russian invasion of Ukraine has divided countries in the Asia-Pacific region, with some finding themselves wedged between Sino-U.S. frictions and strategic differences over the issue. “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is what happens when oppressors trample the rules that protect us all,” U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said in a speech at the Singapore forum earlier in the day. “It’s a preview of a possible world of chaos and turmoil that none of us would want to live in,” he said, adding that “the rules-based international order matters just as much in the Indo-Pacific as it does in Europe.” In his late-afternoon speech to the high-level delegates gathered in Singapore, the Ukrainian president listed alleged atrocities committed by Moscow’s forces and said Russia had destroyed “all achievements of the human kind.” As Ukraine is unable to export enough food because of a Russian blockade, “the shortage of foodstuff will lead to chaos,” Zelenskyy said. “We must stop Russia. We must stop the war,” he pleaded.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addresses the Shangri-La Dialogue security forum in Singapore, June 11, 2022. Credit: Screenshot/BenarNews Pre-emptive measures Responding to a question that drew a parallel between Ukraine and Taiwan, the Ukrainian leader said the world “must use pre-emptive measures” and come up with diplomatic resolutions to support countries in need, not leaving them at the mercy of more powerful nations. Zelenskyy did not mention China by name, but Beijing has always insisted that “Taiwan is not another Ukraine.” Beijing considers Taiwan one of its provinces and as an inalienable part of China. So far, China has refrained from condemning Russia for its actions in Ukraine. In February Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin proclaimed a “no limits” partnership with no “forbidden” areas of cooperation.   In Southeast Asia, most countries have hesitated in denouncing  Russia or joining in international sanctions against Moscow. The ASEAN regional bloc has found it difficult to come up with a clear and united framework when dealing with the Russian war. Some members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations that experienced sanctions in the past are close to Russia and vehemently oppose them. On Saturday, Cambodian Defense Minister Tea Banh told the security forum in Singapore that “the use of sanctions in any form is not the right option to solve problems.” When it was his turn to speak, Malaysia’s defense chief pointed to how the war in Ukraine was testing regional security alliances such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. “Members of NATO have met Russia’s invasion of Ukraine with outrage, deploying thousands of troops to Eastern Europe to protect their alliance members,” Minister Hishamuddin Hussein told the forum. “Even though Ukraine is not a member of the alliance, the potential of the conflict sparking into a much larger world war exists and the fear of it becoming a reality is conceivable, as much as we want to deny it.” Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto speaks with an aide during the second plenary session of the 19th Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, June 11, 2022. Credit: Reuters Rules-based international order The war in Ukraine has featured prominently during sessions at the Shangri-La Dialogue so far. Austin, the U.S. defense secretary, said that “Russia’s indefensible assault on a peaceful neighbor has galvanized the world.” “It’s what happens when big powers decide that their imperial appetites matter more than the rights of their peaceful neighbors,” he said in a thinly veiled reference to China. The Ukraine war highlights “the dangers of disorder,” Austin said, as he urged countries in the region to cooperate to strengthen the rules-based international order. It’s yet to be seen, though, how his calls resonate among smaller nations in Southeast Asia who, up to now, have remained reluctant to pick sides. For his part, the defense chief of Southeast Asia’s largest country indicated that Indonesia was keeping an eye on the situation in Ukraine, but throughout its history as a nation, Jakarta has pursued an “Asian way” in approaching challenges to its security amid big-power rivalries, he said. “The situation in Ukraine teaches us that we can never abandon our security and independence and never take them for granted. Therefore, we are determined to strengthen our defense. Our outlook is defensive, but we will defend our territory with all of our resources,” Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto said in his speech Saturday to the Singapore forum. “In our experience, over the last 40 to 50 years, we have found our own way, the Asian way, to solve this challenge. We decided that our shared experience of being dominated, enslaved, and exploited, forced us to struggle and create a peaceful environment,” he said.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has brought to the fore U.S.-China frictions with no end in sight, analysts warned, while a former Asian leader cautioned about the risk of a new world war.  “I am afraid that wars have a habit of beginning small and then grow into world wars,” former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said at the Future of Asia conference hosted by Nikkei Inc. last week. Mahathir served as Malaysia’s prime minister from 1981 to 2003 and again from 2018 to 2020. He was 20 when World War II ended. Meanwhile, Chinese and U.S. analysts present at the conference traded accusations against each other’s countries and their roles in trying to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. Bonnie Glaser, Director of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, said that China and Russia share a common interest in weakening U.S. global influence and they “seek to change the international order.” She reminded the audience at the conference that before the Russian invasion of Ukraine it was reported that the U.S. shared intelligence with China about Russia’s military plan and urged Beijing to intervene to prevent the war, only for China to share that intelligence with Moscow. This “underscores how much mistrust is there between the U.S. and China,” Glaser said. In response Jia Qingguo, professor at the Peking University’s School of International Studies, said the difference between China and the U.S. is that the U.S. is seeking an ideological world order while China is seeking a secular one “based on national sovereignty and territorial integrity.” It is the U.S. that has been trying to contain China, Jia said. China does not endorse Russia’s military attack against Ukraine but is sympathetic to Moscow being pushed by NATO’s possible expansion, the Beijing-based professor said, adding: “Never push a country, especially a big country, to a corner, however benign the intentions are.” “Countries should respect each other,” Jia said. Regarding that statement, the German Marshall Fund’s Glaser argued that China has been showing double standards when it comes to the definition of “respect.” “When countries have put their own interests ahead of Chinese interests, that has been interpreted by Beijing as disrespect,” she said. China-U.S. rivalry As the war drags on, “rather than be a strategic partner for China, Russia will become a burden,” predicted Glaser. “One possibility is that the U.S. will be freed up to some extent to focus even more intently on the competition with China and on cooperation with allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific region,” the American analyst said, pointing out that officials in the Biden administration believe “that is the most likely outcome.” Veteran diplomat Bilahari Kausikan, who is a former permanent secretary to Singapore’s Foreign Ministry, said the key issue at present is U.S.-China relations. “China has been put in a very awkward situation. It has no other partner of the same strategic weight as Russia anywhere in the world,” he said. Speaking from the perspective of Southeast Asian countries, Kausikan said geopolitics are “moving in the direction of the West” but “if you insist in defining this conflict as a fight between totalitarianism and democracy you’ll likely make that support more shaky and shallow.”  “Not every country in this region finds every aspect of Western democracy universally attractive. Nor do they find every aspect of Chinese authoritarianism universally unappealing,” he argued. Former Malaysian PM Mahathir seemed to echo the Chinese government’s stance when describing the attitude of the U.S. as “always to apply pressure to force regime change.” “When people do not agree, the U.S. would show that it may take military action,” he said. “That is why there is a tendency for tension to increase whenever it involves the U.S.” But “it’s not easy to contain China,” Kausikan said. “China and the U.S. are both parts of the global economic system. They’re linked together by supply chains … Like it or not, they’re stuck together,” the Singapore analyst said. “Competition will be very complicated,” he added. Arleigh-burke class guided missile-destroyer USS Barry transits the Taiwan Strait during a routine transit on Sept. 17, 2021 in this US Navy photograph Taiwan question Experts at the Tokyo conference also discussed the possibility of a conflict involving Taiwan, which China considers a breakaway province that should be reunified with the mainland. Jia Qingguo stated that there should be no comparison between Ukraine and Taiwan. “No country has the right to support some residents of another country to split the place in which they live away from that country,” he said.  “China has every right to make sure that Taiwan will not be split from China.” Glaser said China’s military is, without doubt, following the war in Ukraine closely.  “There are some differences between Taiwan and Ukraine and it’s not a perfect analogy but there are lessons to be drawn.” “Russia has far greater military capabilities than Ukraine but the Ukrainian resistance has been fierce and I wonder if the PLA has actually anticipated a possibility of facing a fierce resistance in Taiwan,” Glaser said. She said she hoped Taiwan would also draw some lessons from the conflict in Ukraine and develop its own defense capabilities in the face of security threats from China.