Ukraine war disrupts cereal markets, threatens food security in SE Asia

As war rages across Ukraine, farmers have been busy towing captured Russian tanks, artillery, and downed helicopters. In addition to their new calling, is the planting of the spring crop. It’s another reminder that Russia’s illegal invasion is occurring in one of the world’s major bread baskets, with consequences for food security in Asia and beyond. What’s at stake? In 2021, Ukraine was the third largest producer of wheat, exporting 60 million of its 80 million-ton harvest. That accounted for 17 percent of global exports. In addition, Ukraine was the second largest producer of barley, the fourth largest producer of corn, and the largest producer of sunflower oil. Both Ukraine and Russia are major players in global markets. But they have a greater role in the developing world and in humanitarian disasters: Half of the World Food Program’s grain is purchased in the Ukraine. In 2021, Ukraine exported U.S. $2.9 billion in wheat to Africa. Since the war began the price of wheat, which was already at a historic high, has increased by 30 percent. Ukraine, along with Russia, is an important provider of grain and food staples to Southeast Asia. In 2020, Ukraine exported $708 million to Indonesia, accounting for 25 percent of imports; $92 million to Malaysia, 23 percent of imports; and $131 million to Thailand, around 17 percent of imports. But Indonesia and the Philippines – Southeast Asia’s most food insecure nations – will be hit particularly hard. Almost 75 percent of Indonesia’s imports from Ukraine consists of cereals, including wheat. In 2021, Indonesia imported 3.07 million tons of wheat from Ukraine. In 2020, Ukraine was the single largest source of grain for the most populous Southeast Asian nation, and the largest in 2021. And in both Indonesia and the Philippines, demand for wheat is growing. According to the Philippine statistics agency, in 2021 imports of cereals increased by nearly 48 percent over 2020. In Indonesia, flour consumption increased by almost 5 percent in 2021. At the same time, the populations of the neighboring countries are growing. Indonesia’s population is increasing by 1.1 percent per annum and the Philippines’ at 1.3 percent – making it the fastest growing population in Southeast Asia. In both countries, food production has never kept pace with population growth. And both governments are very sensitive to inflation in food commodities. Fighting spreads to farm fields Meanwhile, in the middle of Ukraine’s sowing season, the war has shifted from north of Kyiv, to the eastern part of the country. The fighting is now taking place in some of Ukraine’s most productive farmland.  In places where it is not too dangerous to farm, the physical infrastructure has been destroyed. Able-bodied men and women are serving in the military or territorial defense forces. The Ukrainian government is expecting a 30 percent decline in agricultural production this year because of the war. Dire warnings by the government suggest that exports in 2022 could plummet to 15 to 20 percent of 2021’s exports. Even if the farmers are able to grow crops, there are questions about their ability to get the grains to global markets. The Russians razed Mariupol and have devastated the physical infrastructure and depopulated most of the other of Ukraine’s ports on the Sea of Asimov. Odessa is the last major port that Russia has not attacked, but Russian forces are blockading it.  For the time being, Ukrainian grain exports are only leaving the country by train or truck, but if the Russians target logistic nodes in western Ukraine even those exports could be dented. Local farmers are also vulnerable to a liquidity crisis, unable to get the loans they need to cover operations in the first half of the season. That’s not suggest that there is a shortage of sources of wheat outside Ukraine. Last year, Indonesia imported 4.69 million tons from Australia. In 2020, it imported 2.63 million tons from Argentina. Having suppliers in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres is essential for the steady importation of food stuffs. And next to Russia, the United States, and Canada, Ukraine is the largest exporter in the Northern Hemisphere. Without a doubt, the war is bad news for global food markets. Prices for cereals have been climbing steadily in the past few years at a time when most countries have experienced economic slowdowns, the loss of income, and climbing poverty rates due to the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic. Inflation in energy markets and food staples is hitting consumers hard the world over. Other uncertainty in food markets Beyond the Russian invasion of Ukraine there are other factors unsettling global food markets. China’s winter wheat harvest was described by their agriculture minister as “the worst in history.” A decline in water levels along the Mekong River due to damming has increased salt intrusion into the Mekong Delta, leading to a smaller harvest. According to the Stimson Center, the delta accounts for 50 percent of Vietnam’s rice crop, but 90 percent of rice exports. In 2020, Vietnam’s exports accounted for 7.4 percent of the global supply. Indonesia and the Philippines are amongst Vietnam’s top export markets. The economic fallout from Myanmar’s coup d’état is another factor. The kyat lost 60 percent of its value since the February 2021 military takeover, prompting a shortage of U.S. dollars and making imports of pesticides and fertilizers exorbitant. While Myanmar itself will remain food secure, the expected diminished crop will impact global markets. Myanmar is the seventh largest exporter of rice in the world. In 2020 it accounted for 3.2 percent of global exports. Optimistic estimates suggest that exports will be around 2 million tons in 2022, down from their normal export of 2.5 to 3 million tons. With the exception of Singapore, countries in Southeast Asia have been reluctant to criticize Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and none have been willing to impose sanctions, professing a desire to be neutral. But most countries in Southeast Asia will be feeling the economic pain cause by Russia’s military strike on its neighbor next-door. As this year’s president of the G-20, Indonesia is causing controversy by inviting President Putin to the Bali summit,…

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Japanese gangster, 3 Thais ‘brokered’ heroin, meth deals for missiles, US alleges

The U.S. Justice Department on Thursday announced the arrests of a suspected Japanese organized crime leader and three Thais who allegedly tried to sell large amounts of heroin and methamphetamine internationally to arm rebel groups in Myanmar and Sri Lanka with surface-to-air missiles and other weapons. Takeshi Ebisawa, who is a Japanese citizen, Thai nationals Somphop Singhasiri and Sompak Rukrasaranee, and American-Thai dual national Suksan Jullanan (alias Bobby) were arrested in Manhattan earlier this week following a probe that began as early as June 2019, according to a document filed in the U.S. Court for the Southern District of New York. The U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency began investigating Ebisawa in 2019 and identified him as a Yakuza organized crime leader. “We allege Mr. Ebisawa and his co-conspirators brokered deals with an undercover DEA agent to buy heavy-duty weaponry and sell large quantities of illegal drugs,” U.S. Attorney Damian Williams said in a news release announcing the arrests. “The drugs were destined for New York streets and the weapons shipments were meant for factions in unstable nations.” “The Yakuza is a network of highly organized, transnational crime families with affiliates in Asia, Europe, and the Americas, and is involved in various criminal activities, including weapons trafficking, drug trafficking, human trafficking, fraud and money laundering,” U.S. justice officials said. Investigators allege that Ebisawa introduced an undercover agent posing as a narcotics and weapons trafficker to associates in Japan, Thailand, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and the United States to set up drug and weapons transactions – noting that the four suspects “negotiated multiple narcotics and weapons transactions” with the undercover agent. Ebisawa, Jullanan and Rukrasaranee conspired to broker the purchase of U.S.-made surface-to-air missiles and other weapons “for multiple ethnic armed groups in Burma, and to accept large quantities of heroin and methamphetamine for distribution as partial payment for the weapons,” the charges allege. Joined by Singhasiri, Ebisawa sought to sell 500 kg (1,100 pounds) of methamphetamine and 500 kg of heroin to an undercover agent, justice officials said, adding that the drugs were to be distributed in New York. Singhasiri allegedly conspired to possess machine guns and other firearms to protect narcotics shipments and Ebisawa allegedly worked to launder U.S. $100,000 in “purported narcotics proceeds from the United States to Japan.” Ebisawa faces charges of conspiracy to import narcotics; conspiracy to acquire, transfer and possess surface-to-air missiles; conspiracy to possess firearms including machine guns and destructive devices; and money laundering. Charging documents allege that Ebisawa sought to buy the surface-to-air missiles, rockets, machine guns and automatic weapons for the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, a Sri Lankan rebel group also known as the Tamil Tigers. “Though defeated militarily in 2009, the LTTE continues to attract international financial support,” the justice department said in the charging document, adding that the LTTE is designated by the United States as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. Singhasiri faces charges of conspiracy to import narcotics and conspiracy to possess firearms including machine guns and destructive devices. Jullanan and Rukrasaranee face charges of conspiracy to import narcotics; conspiracy to acquire, transfer and possess surface-to-air missiles; and conspiracy to possess firearms including machine guns and destructive devices. Justice officials allege the two and Ebisawa discussed potential deals to supply missiles and other weapons to the Myanmar groups including the Shan State Army and United Wa State Army. The weapons and drug charges carry penalties of up to life in prison if convicted. “The expansive reach of transnational criminal networks, like the Yakuza, presents a serious threat to the safety and health of all communities. Ebisawa and his associates intended to distribute hundreds of kilograms of methamphetamine and heroin to the United States, using deadly weapons to enable their criminal activities, at a time when nearly 300 Americans lose their lives to drug overdose every day,” DEA Administrator Anne Milgram said in a prepared statement. “These arrests represent the unwavering determination of the DEA, together with our U.S. and international partners, to target and bring to justice violent criminals who lead transnational drug trafficking organizations that continue to flood our country with dangerous drugs.” BenarNews is an RFA-affiliated news outlet.

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Deputy governor of Myanmar central bank shot by gunmen at her Yangon home

The deputy governor of Myanmar’s central bank was shot by unknown assailants on Thursday, according to sources and media reports, amid a public outcry over a new directive ordering the sale of all U.S. dollars and other foreign currency at a fixed rate to licensed banks. It was not immediately clear whether Than Than Shwe, who was shot at her apartment complex in the commercial capital Yangon’s Bahan township, survived the attack. A resident of the same complex told RFA’s Myanmar Service that she and others who live there “only found out what happened when several military trucks arrived.” “We knew a woman had been shot — a bank employee. But later, news came out that she was the central bank [deputy] governor.” Junta Deputy Information Minister Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun confirmed the shooting to RFA’s Myanmar Service and said Than Than Shwe was recuperating at the city’s military hospital. “We can confirm the attack at 11:30 a.m.,” he said, adding that Than Than Swe “was injured and is being treated at Tatmadaw Hospital.” “Her condition is good at this moment,” he said at the time. The Irrawaddy News reported later Thursday that Than Than Swe had died at the hospital from injuries she sustained in the shooting, citing sources close to the deputy governor. A report by the Associated Press quoted a local official named Thet Oo as saying Than Than Swe had been shot three times by two men after answering the door at her apartment and was confirmed dead after being taken to the hospital. RFA was unable to independently verify the reports. Than Than Swe, 55, was sworn in as deputy governor of the central bank after the military seized power from Myanmar’s democratically elected National League for Democracy (NLD) government in a Feb. 1, 2021, coup. Believed to be the most senior junta official to be shot since the takeover, she is known to have led efforts to reduce the cash flow in the banking and financial system under the NLD, a senior official at the central bank told The Irrawaddy. A group known as the Yangon Region Military Command (YRMC) announced in a statement on Thursday that it had “successfully carried out” the attack on Than Than Swe as it’s “latest target.” The YRMC is an anti-junta paramilitary group that has pledged loyalty to Myanmar’s shadow National Unity Government (NUG) and claims to have carried out more than 1,100 attacks since the NUG declared war on the military in September. The NUG, which has distanced itself from attacks on civilians, did not immediately comment on the attack Thursday and RFA was unable to confirm the YRMC’s claim of responsibility. Junta security forces have killed at least 1,733 civilians and arrested more than 10,000 others since February 2021, mostly during peaceful anti-coup demonstrations, according to the Bangkok-based Assistance Association for Political Prisoners. An illegal money changer exchanges Myanmar kyat bank notes into US dollars in a back alley of Yangon, in a file photo. Credit: AFP New bank directive The attack on Than Than Swe comes days after an April 3 directive by the central bank ordering all foreign currency, including the U.S. dollar, to be resold within one day of entering the country to licensed banks at a fixed rate of 1,850 kyats to the dollar. The order also requires government approval before any foreign currency can be sent overseas. A Myanmar-based economist, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the central bank order suggests that the junta is running short of dollars. He warned that the move is likely to have dire consequences for an economy already decimated by COVID-19, junta mismanagement and Western sanctions. “This will make the dollar even scarcer and the buying and selling of dollars will be done under the table,” he said. “In that case, the kyat will depreciate further. The situation will just get worse. Imported goods will become even more expensive.” The price of imports from the Thai and Chinese borders are likely to be unaffected, he said, as Thai baht and Chinese yuan can be easily exchanged for Myanmar kyat. A source who earns his salary in U.S. dollars and declined to be named for security reasons told RFA he can no longer withdraw money from his bank. “The bank told me they cannot transfer the money to U.S.-dollar accounts due to the CBM directive. They cannot issue any currency notes or transfer money from one account to another in the same bank or to different banks, until further notice. … You can no longer transfer using the mobile app either. You can only see the dollars in your account, but cannot get hold of them,” he said. “There’s nothing I can do. I’m poor now. There is more money coming in and all of this was converted into kyats automatically. It’s a big, big headache now.” A businessman named Soe Tun said the prices of cooking and fuel oils are likely to fall if enough U.S. dollars are resold to importers but that the long-term impact on producers of rice and corn could be substantial. “For these exporters, it is unfortunate that they must sell their [goods] at a rate of 1,850 kyats to the dollar due to the newly fixed exchange rate,” he said. “They will lose roughly 11 percent, or about 200 kyats, for every dollar.” He said the consequences of the order will only become clear after a month or so. Lack of independence Khin Maung Myint, a legal expert, told RFA that Myanmar’s law stipulates that the central bank must remain independent from the government, but said the reality of the situation is that everything depends on who is appointed to run the bank by the junta. “The decision-makers, including the governor and the deputy governor, were appointed by the [junta], so it’s no wonder they act in accordance with the junta’s decisions and directives, no matter how independent they may be under the law,” he said. “It’s very difficult…

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Meeting may signal warmer relations between Myanmar and China

A recent meeting between the Myanmar junta’s foreign minister and his Chinese counterpart may signal China’s softening to the military rulers who came to power in a coup last year and an eagerness to revive its own economic initiatives in the war-torn country, analysts said. Wunna Maung Lwin, foreign minister of the State Administration Council, as the junta regime is called, met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in eastern China’s Anhui province during the Myanmar diplomat’s March 31-April 2 visit. Wunna Maung Lwin was appointed to his position after the Myanmar military seized power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi more than 13 months ago. He was barred by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) from attending a February meeting of regional organization’s foreign ministers in Cambodia. Analysts said that Wunna Maung Lwin’s meeting with Wang Yi signals Myanmar’s desire for deeper economic ties to its ally China, as it struggles to repress widespread opposition to its rule that has left thousands dead. Beijing meanwhile wants to get its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects in Myanmar moving forward. Beijing now seems more willing to side with the junta, as it had done with previous military regimes in Myanmar, political analyst Sai Kyi Zin Soe said. “China is consistently focused on the One Belt, One Road Initiative,” he said. “They may have something to do economically at present. They must also have many plans to invest in Myanmar, so they seem to be looking at what they can get out of it.” Chinese investments in Myanmar under the BRI, a trillion-dollar infrastructure program, have been hampered by ethnic unrest, the COVID-19 pandemic and the post-coup turmoil. China especially wants its main infrastructure project in Myanmar — the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor — to be completed so that it has a direct route from Yunnan province to the Indian Ocean oil trade. Wang Yi told Wunna Maung Lwin that China would support the junta’s efforts to safeguard independence and territorial integrity and find a path to development that suits Myanmar’s situation, according to a report by China’s official Xinhua news agency. He also said China was ready to deepen exchanges and cooperation in all fields. Zin Mar Aung, foreign minister of Myanmar’s shadow National Unity Government (NUG), said the Chinese government’s move to invite the junta’s foreign minister on an official visit raises questions about Beijing’s support for Myanmar citizens. “It’s a very disappointing development,” she said. “It is questionable whether China has reversed its previous position when it said Beijing will stand by our people in the return of power to the people. Has it now taken a one-sided approach? Is Beijing standing on the other side against the Myanmar people?” So far, China has been in contact only with the State Administration Council and has yet to formally engage with the NUG. Sun Guoxiang, Beijing’s special envoy for Asian affairs met with Wunna Maung Lwin in Myanmar in August 2021. Afterwards, Sun said he would work with the international community to help bring about social stability and democratic change in the Southeast Asian country. When the Chinese Communist Party held an online conference of political parties in Southeast Asia in September 2021, the National League for Democracy, Myanmar’s ruling party until it was overthrown by the military, was invited to attend, but could not participate in discussions. ‘Main thing is economics’ China-based Myanmar observer Hla Kyaw Zaw said the Chinese government gives priority to its economy. “It is true that China had invited [Wunna Maung Lwin], but it was for its own interests,” she said. “China also wants democracy in Myanmar for stability, and it has said it will render all the help it can.” “The main thing is economics,” she said. “In the past, there were matters agreed upon during the time of Aung San Suu Kyi. Parts of the Silk Road project undertaken by Myanmar seem to have stopped, and China wants them to resume.” In a statement following the visit between Wunna Maung Lwin and Wang Yi, the junta’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs called for the implementation of joint projects between the two countries, the opening of a Myanmar consulate in Chongqing in central China, and the addition of new border crossings between the two countries. The ministry also said the two foreign ministers discussed the implementation of a Five-Point Consensus, an agreement between Myanmar’s military ruler and ASEAN countries at a meeting held after the coup. Major General Zaw Min Tun, the junta’s spokesman, said the regime had no further comments on details of talks between the two foreign ministers. “We already have issued a statement. I have nothing else to say,” he said. Prashanth Parameswaran, a fellow with the Wilson Center’s Asia Program in Washington, said China believes that it is in its interest to increase its public support for the increasingly isolated Myanmar military regime. “But this support will not be cost-free for Myanmar,” he said. “The key question is what China will ask for in return for increased support, and Wang Yi’s comments suggest what this could entail, whether it be advances on infrastructure projects or diplomatic support for other issues.” Jason Tower, the country director for Myanmar U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP) in Washington, said that China is betting that the Myanmar military will not relinquish power. “The problem, though, is that the junta has no possible pathway towards achieving stability in the country,” he told RFA. “Over the longer term this means that China will be placing its economic plans for Myanmar far out of reach by continuing to support the junta in this way.” The potential consequences of China’s backing of the junta could have negative consequences throughout the region, Tower said. “If Beijing moves forward with this level of support for a genocidal military with no popular legitimacy, it risks undermining any hopes of maintaining a strong friendship with the Myanmar people,” he said. “This could produce a regional crisis of tragic proportions…

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Bribes are a common business expense in Laos, a new report says

Almost 70 percent of businesses that applied for registrations, licenses and permits in Laos paid bribes to government officials to get approval, a report by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said. The report on the cost of doing business in Laos drew responses from 1,357 respondents, 68 percent of whom said that so-called “informal payments” were necessary for smooth and efficient business operations. ADB, which is based in Manila, provides loans, grants and other financial assistance to projects that promote growth in Asian countries and reduce extreme poverty in the region. “The informal charges must be paid for everything … because the access to the officials and the system they control is difficult, and the system is slow to adopt technology,” an employee at the ADB office in Laos, who requested anonymity for safety reasons, told RFA’s Lao Service Thursday. “It’s going to take some time to update the rules, amend the laws and improve the behavior of officials. The Lao government should develop human resources by upgrading their skills and knowledge, but it is more important that they are more transparent,” the ADB official said. Paying the bribe to get things done is sometimes easier than doing business by the book, an owner of a bar and restaurant in the historic town of Luang Prabang in northern Laos told RFA. “Paying kickbacks is widespread in Laos. They do it in every district and in every province because the process of obtaining license or permit in this country is very complex, bureaucratic and time consuming,” said the owner, who declined to be named. “In my case, I knew somebody in the provincial business registration office. They came by and inspected my facility first before I could register my business. You have to know somebody in the office, if not, it’s going to be difficult to get registered,” he said. Connections and money are integral to doing business in Laos, the owner of a Luang Prabang car rental company told RFA. “If you try to do it yourself, you’ll find a lot of trouble. But if you have a link or a connection in the office, it’ll be much easier because you and your connection can talk and compromise, of course, with the appropriate amount of money under the table,” he said. “With the appropriate amount, a process that normally takes three months takes only three weeks. In my case, I paid the appropriate amount to an acquaintance outside of his office after work hours,” the car rental owner said. Lao governmental paperwork is overly complicated, the owner of another business told RFA. “When I submit an application form for a permit, I can say to an official, ‘Please look at this application form. When it’s done, I’ll buy you a beer or two.’ Then I give him 300,000 kip ($25), the cost of one or two beers, for his service,” the source said. A Lao economist told RFA that the report did not uncover anything out of the ordinary. “For many people who don’t know about Laos, the ADB report looks negative. But for those who are used to it, kickbacks are normal because this kind of practice is a problem in every country in the world,” the economist said on condition of anonymity for safety reasons. “For example, when officials perform inspections for safety, labor practices or environmental impact of a factory, the factory owner would have to pay the inspectors cash and never receive a bill or receipt. The inspectors put the money in their pockets. The money is not a fee charged by the government,” he said, adding that foreign investors might not want to do business under that type of system. “For investors who are already here, the extra expenses in the form of kickbacks add up and increase the cost of doing business.” Solutions Kickbacks are often necessary because officials depend on them for much of their income, an official of the Lao Finance Ministry told RFA. “They take the kickbacks to make a living. I cannot deny that,” he said. “It’s getting worse in the current economic situation. The government is tackling this practice head-on in hopes of reducing it little by little.” The Lao Chamber of Industry and Commerce suggested in the ADB report that the government should step up training for its employees and switch from a system requiring person-to-person contact to an online processing method. In Transparency International’s 2021 Corruption Perceptions Index, which measures public sector corruption on a scale of 0 (“highly corrupt”) to 100 (“very clean”), Laos received a score of 30, placing it in 128th place among 180 countries. The least corrupt countries were New Zealand, Denmark, and Finland, each with score of 88, while the most corrupt was South Sudan, with a score of 11. Translated by Max Avary. Written in English by Eugene Whong.

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Lack of engine could sink Thai purchase of Chinese submarine

Thailand’s long-planned purchase of three Chinese submarines, which a former top Bangkok diplomat described as “an insult to the Thai-U.S. treaty relationship,” could run into trouble, officials and analysts said. In April 2017, the Thai government approved the Royal Navy’s plan to buy three Yuan-class submarines from China valued at 36 billion baht (U.S. $1.05 billion). Because of budget constraints, the purchase of one submarine – now valued at 13.5 billion baht ($403 million) – got the green light but the other two were shelved. The Chinese state-owned submarine developer – China Shipbuilding & Offshore International Co. (CSOC) – could not obtain the diesel engine from Germany to fit into the sub because of the European Union arms embargo imposed on China, according to a German official. The engine is manufactured by Germany’s Motor and Turbine Union (MTU). “The export [of the engine] was refused because of its use for a Chinese Military/Defense industry item,” said Philipp Doert, the German defense attaché to Thailand, told the Bangkok Post. “China did not ask/coordinate with Germany before signing the Thai-China contract, offering German MTU engines as part of their product.” The EU imposed its arms embargo on China in 1989 after the violent suppression of pro-democracy protests in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square. Thai-China relations ‘not affected’ Earlier this week, Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha said that if China could not fulfill the agreement, the submarine deal could be canceled. “What do we do with a submarine with no engines? Why should we purchase it?” Prayuth, who serves as the nation’s defense minister, told local media. Previously, Vice Adm. Pokkrong Monthatphalin, the Royal Thai Navy spokesman, said talks were to be held later this month with CSOC to discuss the engine issue. Local media reported that CSOC had offered an alternative engine – an offer rejected by the government, which paid its first installment of 700 million baht (U.S. $20.9 million) in 2017. The submarine’s delivery is scheduled for 2024. Despite his concerns, Prayuth told Thai reporters that any cancellation would not affect Thai-Chinese relations, according to the Bangkok Post. A Chinese navy submarine leaves Qingdao Port, Shandong province, in a file photo. Credit: Reuters Trust issues An analyst, meanwhile, said Bangkok’s growing military ties with China have led to trust issues with the United States. “Thailand and the U.S. are treaty allies. Thailand was designated by the U.S. as a Non-NATO ally,” Kasit Piromya, a Thai former foreign minister, told BenarNews. “The fact that Thailand commissioned the Chinese submarines is an insult to the Thai-U.S. treaty relationship,” he said, adding that the issue “must be reset and redressed.” Earlier this year, the Thai Royal Air Force expressed interest in purchasing F-35 stealth fighter jets from the U.S. But the U.S. would be reluctant to sell their state-of-the-art aircraft to Bangkok because of the Thai military’s close links with its Chinese counterpart, said Ian Storey, a senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. In addition, the relationship between Thailand and the U.S. has been up and down in recent years.  “The Thai military establishment does not like criticism of its role in Thai politics by the U.S. and Western allies, while China avoids political judgment and offers military hardware at friendship’s cost,” Kasit said. “The result is Thailand and the U.S. have been failing to hold heart-to-heart talks as allies and strategic partners,” he said. Southeast Asian countries, especially those with competing claims in the South China Sea, are joining the submarine club to deal with new security challenges. Vietnam bought six Kilo-class submarines from Russia, both Indonesia and the Philippines are discussing purchasing submarines from France. Singapore and Malaysia operate four and two subs, respectively. China by far has the largest fleet in Asia, with an estimated 76 submarines. The Yuan-class is a diesel-electric submarine designed to operate in shallow coastal waters, according to the U.S. Naval Institute.

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Jailed Vietnamese rights activist marks one year in pre-trial detention

A well-known Vietnamese human rights activist who raised money for families of prisoners jailed for their political or religious views marked the first anniversary of her arrest for allegedly disseminating materials against the state, still in detention and awaiting trial. Nguyen Thuy Hanh, founder of the 50K Fund, which provides financial support to family members of so-called prisoners of conscience, was arrested on April 7, 2021, by police in Vietnam’s capital Hanoi. Authorities blocked her bank account in 2020 after she raised about 500 million Vietnamese dong (U.S. $21,600) to support the family of Le Dinh Kinh, the elderly leader of the Dong Tam commune, who was shot dead by security forces during a police raid in January 2020 amid a long-running land dispute. Hanh closed her fund in early December to take time to treat an illness, but she affirmed her continuing support for prisoners of conscience. Hanh herself had run afoul of Communist Party authorities for trying to run for a seat in Vietnam’s rubber-stamp National Congress in 2016. Human rights lawyer and democracy activist Nguyen Van Dai, who has been arrested twice for political reasons, told RFA that during pre-trial periods, prisoners are not allowed to see their families or defense attorneys as an additional method of punishment. “We need to understand the nature of the communist authoritarian regime in Vietnam,” he said. “When arresting political dissidents, their main purpose is not only to deprive their freedom but also to punish them both physically and mentally. “The reason they don’t allow us to see our family or lawyers and do all kinds of things to suppress and torture us mentally is to exhaust our strength and determination and discourage us from fighting for our ideals after being released from jail,” he said. Authorities also torment prisoners in pre-trial detention by sometimes providing half-cooked rice or stale food to eat or putting detergent into their soup, Dai added. “Temporary detention is the most stressful time [for detainees], which can cause depression in those who cannot tolerate it,” he said. Hanh’s husband, Huynh Ngoc Chenh, said his wife was very depressed before her arrest and that the family is concerned that her psychological state now may be worse. “My wife Hanh was suffering from serious depression and was being treated by a doctor in Saigon [Ho Chi Minh City] when she was arrested,” he said. “After a while, the detention center allowed us to send her some medicine.” Hanh was forced to undergo a month-long psychiatric evaluation while being held in pre-trial detention, Chenh told RFA in January. But authorities did not tell Hanh’s family about her mental state. The family learned about her month-long stay in a hospital from other patients there. “We don’t know anything about her health condition now,” Chenh said. ‘An act of torture’ Vietnam’s investigative security agencies often extend pre-trial detention periods for political prisoners, especially with high-profile detainees being held on alleged violations of national security. Human rights organizations, including London-based Amnesty International Amnesty, have repeatedly expressed concerns over this practice, calling it “an act of torture.” Vietnam is currently detaining 253 prisoners of conscience, including two dozen women, according to the rights group Defend the Defenders, though the organization said it believes that the actual number is higher. Three dozen of those being held are in pre-trial detention, while the remainder has been sentenced, Vu Quoc Ngu, the organization’s director told RFA on Wednesday. Prisoners charged with “sabotaging the national solidarity policy” and religious prisoners comprise the largest number of detainees, while about 100 belong to ethnic minority groups in northern Vietnam or the Central Highlands, he said. The rest were charged with other crimes such as “overthrowing the people’s government,” “conducting anti-state propaganda,” and “abusing the rights to freedom and democracy,” Ngu said. The real number of prisoners of conscience in Vietnam is likely much higher because Defend the Defenders has had difficulty obtaining information from detainees’ families or else their trials were held in secret and not covered by the media. The number of prisoners of conscience “shows that Vietnam’s authoritarian regime disrespects the basic freedom rights, including freedom of speech, freedom of establishing associations and press freedom,” Ngu said. “This number reflects the communist government’s increasing suppression.” Reported by RFA’s Vietnamese Service. Translate by Anna Vu. Written in English by Roseanne Gerin.

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Smuggled sketches offer glimpses into notorious Myanmar prison

Fourteen sketches smuggled out of Myanmar’s Insein Prison and interviews with eight former prisoners offer a rare glimpse inside the country’s most notorious jail, where thousands of political prisoners have been sent since last year’s military coup and communication with the outside world is sharply limited.  The ink sketches show daily life for groups of male prisoners in their dormitories, queuing for water from a trough to wash, talking or lying on the floor in the tropical heat. Beyond those depictions, the eight recently released inmates told Reuters the colonial-era facility in Yangon is infested with rats and widespread illness goes untreated. Also, bribery is common and prisoners pay for sleeping space on the floor.  “We’re no longer humans behind bars,” said Nyi Nyi Htwe, 24, who smuggled the sketches out of the prison when he was released in October, after spending several months for a defamation conviction, on charges he denies, in connection with joining protests against the coup.  Reuters could not independently verify the accounts provided by the former inmates.  The artist drew the prison sketches between April and July of last year. Later released, he declined to be interviewed or identified, telling Nyi Nyi Htwe he feared rearrest.  Nyi Nyi Htwe, who met the artist in prison, said the man sketched prisoners if asked and drew prison scenes wherever he went, saying he felt more relaxed while drawing. He gave Nyi Nyi Htwe, who has joined an armed rebel group since being released, the sketches as a birthday present.

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Human trafficking in Cambodia nearly doubled in 2021

Human trafficking cases in Cambodia almost doubled in 2021 compared to 2020 because the government was preoccupied with the coronavirus pandemic, a report issued Wednesday by the country’s National Committee for Counter Trafficking said. The report, which was released during a ceremony at the Ministry of Interior, the committee’s parent ministry, documented trafficking of laborers, organs, babies and surrogates, and sex workers. Minister of Interior Sar Kheng said human trafficking was on the rise amid the COVID-19 pandemic. He urged authorities not to let their guard down. “Criminals are choosing human trafficking as a career. They won’t let it go. They are taking advantage of us when we are facing a crisis,” he said.  The committee’s vice chairperson, Chou Bun Eng, said during an interview with a local radio station that traffickers used to move through Cambodia, but now the country has become a popular trafficking destination. She highlighted a particular case earlier this year to illustrate the point. “The trafficking suspects brought in victims to Cambodia. The suspects lured the victims to work in Cambodia due to the country’s development and political stability,” she said.  “There was huge increase compared to 2020, we found 359 cases in 2021 whereas in 2020, there were only 155 cases,” said Chou Bun Eng. Trafficking of surrogates is a rising problem. In the past it was common for Cambodian surrogate mothers to give birth inside Cambodia but now they are moved to other countries, she said. The surrogates are in danger of being trafficked even after they have given birth because traffickers can confiscate their passports and IDs. Chou Bun Eng said one surrogate mother was arrested by authorities in Vietnam. She said the traffickers are able to lure victims through sophisticated means, using online communication to evade police detection. Since 2020, about 200,000 Cambodians have illegally crossed the border to work overseas but were not paid what they were promised, she said.  “They don’t make any money. What are the benefits of the risk after spending years working and finally ending up receiving social welfare back home?” Chou Bun Eng said.  Many of the Cambodians trafficked into the sex industry are underage, Am Sam Ath of the Cambodian League for the Promotion and Defense of Human Rights told RFA’s Khmer Service. He said the authorities didn’t pay attention to the problem even before the pandemic. “Violence, sexual assault, and human trafficking against minors continues to occur. We urge the government to increase measures to prevent human trafficking, especially of minors,” he said.  In its 2021 Trafficking in Persons Report, the U.S. State Department placed Cambodia on its Tier 2 Watchlist for the third consecutive year, meaning it does not fully meet the minimum standards for the elimination of trafficking but is making significant efforts to do so. “Endemic corruption and lack of political will continued to severely limit progress in holding traffickers accountable; corruption continued to impede law enforcement operations, criminal proceedings and victim service provision,” the State Department said. Translated by Samean Yun. Written in English by Eugene Whong. 

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Junta troops arrest kindergartner from Yangon school

Junta security forces have detained a four-year-old boy from a preschool in Myanmar’s commercial capital Yangon, according to eyewitnesses, who say they believe the child is being used to obtain information on an armed opposition group. Thant Phone Waiyan was taken into custody on Tuesday, his fourth birthday, from the Best Choice Kindergarten on Settwin Road in Yangon’s Alone township, a teacher at the school told RFA’s Myanmar Service. After arriving at the school at around 12:40 p.m., a group of 20 soldiers initially sent in a plainclothes officer who told teachers that he was the boy’s uncle. The teacher said that staff “blocked the doorway with both hands and didn’t let him get in,” and that she told the officer she had plans to adopt the boy and would not let anyone take him. “At that moment, another group of men came in with their guns. There were about four or five of them. While I was arguing with them, two guys pushed me aside to get in,” the teacher told RFA. “One teacher brought out the boy and they looked at him from head to toe before taking him away. They were about to handcuff me at first, but they changed their mind.” The incident reportedly lasted around 10 minutes. A source close to the family, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that two days after the arrest, the child’s mother Ma Wai was “hit by a car,” and then “shot and detained” in Yangon. Other family members have reportedly since fled in fear of being targeted. The source indicated that the reason for the arrest may be to pressure Ma Wai to provide information about members of the anti-junta People’s Defense Force (PDF) paramilitary group, which has risen up in opposition to the military’s Feb. 1, 2021 coup.  “It is believed that the child was arrested so that she could be coerced to yield secret information because she knew they had her child,” the source said. It was not immediately clear what ties Mai Wai has to the PDF, if any. A resident of Yangon’s Sin Min Ward, where the child is from, condemned the abduction. “If they want to make an arrest, arrest the parents. What can the child know? I feel sorry for the child. I also have kids,” said the resident, who declined to be named. “[The military is] just kidnapping the kid because they want to get to the parents.” Other sources told RFA that the military had “detained several people” since Tuesday, which they suggested had been made based on the earlier arrests. RFA was unable to independently confirm the detentions. Child arrests When asked about the reports of Thant Phone Waiyan’s arrest, junta Deputy Information Minister Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun dismissed them as false. “It doesn’t make sense. They are talking nonsense. Which child did we arrest? There is no record of such arrests,” he said. While Zaw Min Tun denied that security forces had arrested Thant Phone Waiyan, he acknowledged to RFA in January that “some children” have been detained in raids. According to the Thailand-based Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, authorities have arrested 255 children between the ages of nine months and 18 years since last year’s coup. Of those arrested, 62 have been released, but 191 remain imprisoned and two have been sentenced to death, the group says.  Khin Maung Myint, a veteran lawyer, told RFA on Thursday that Thant Phone Waiyan’s arrest was made in violation of both Myanmar’s Penal Code and the Protection of the Rights of the Child Act. “They arrested the child for his parents’ actions,” he said. “Even if a child committed a crime or even a murder, they would have no right to arrest or prosecute the child. Children are already protected by law.” Ei Thinzar Maung, Deputy Minister for Youth and Children for the Myanmar’s shadow National Unity Government (NUG), told RFA that NUG is working to secure the boy’s release and said U.N. agencies have been informed about his abduction. “As soon as we heard the news, we [began] working for the immediate release of the child,” he said. “To abduct a four-year-old boy because they cannot arrest the parents is shocking. It’s a violation of international law and is also a terrorist act. We have reported this to the U.N.”  The NUG was formed in the aftermath of the military coup by members of the ousted government of Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy, as well as other civil society and pro-democracy activists, and says it represents the effort to return to democratic rule in the country. According to the AAPP, junta troops have killed at least 1,733 civilians and arrested more than 10,000 others since February 2021 – mostly during peaceful anti-coup protests. Translated by Khin Maung Nyane. Written in English by Nawar Nemeh.

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