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China isn’t yet ready to use military force against Taiwan
At 10.00 p.m. local time on Aug. 2, 2022, U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi arrived in Taipei, the highest-ranking U.S. politician to do so for 25 years. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) angrily announced via its Xinhua news agency that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) would conduct military areas in six areas encircling Taiwan, between 12 noon on Aug. 4 to 12 noon on Aug. 7, including live-fire exercises. The PLA’s Eastern Theater Command then announced joint air and sea exercises in the Taiwan Strait and in the waters around the island, including the firing of long-range ammunition. The exercises are widely seen as a shock tactic and deterrent sparked by Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, and China styles them as a warning to supporters of “Taiwan independence.” The six areas encircled Taiwan on all sides, bringing PLA forces closer to the island than previous exercises during the 1995-1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, and even encroaching on Taiwan’s territorial waters in some places. On the morning of Aug. 3, Taiwan’s ministry of defense held an online news conference, at which it strongly condemned the exercises as a de facto air and sea blockade, a serious violation of the island’s territorial waters and as inimical to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait and in violation of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, and endangering international shipping lanes and regional security. Their initial analysis was that the CCP was using this show of force to intimidate Taiwan, and as a form of psychological warfare against its people. So the ministry announced it would prepare for war without seeking or avoiding it, and vowed not to escalate the conflict. It said the island’s military would step up vigilance and counter any aggression. Currently, Taiwan’s combat readiness training is continuing as it had been before, and there have been no recalls of officers or soldiers on leave. The United States remains on high alert, and is expected to respond to China’s large-scale military exercises and economic coercion against Taiwan. John Kirby, the National Security Council’s strategic communications coordinator, said in a regular White House media briefing on Aug. 2 that Beijing has no reason to turn this visit, which is in line with long-term U.S. policy, into some kind of crisis, or use it as an excuse for increased aggression and military activity targeting Taiwan. Sailors direct an EA-18G Growler attached to the Shadowhawks of Electronic Attack Squadron (VAQ) 141 on the flight deck of the U.S. Navy’s only forward-deployed aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) in the Philippine Sea, Aug. 2, 2022. Credit: U.S. Navy Missiles Kirby said the U.S. side expects China to continue to respond for a longer period of time [than in 1996], but gave no further details, adding that the U.S. doesn’t want a crisis and will seek to manage the situation and not fall into conflict with China. In other words, the United States has achieved its goal [with Pelosi’s visit], meaning that there is no need to irritate Beijing further, and that the situation, while tense, is generally under control. The exercises began after Pelosi left Taiwan, so as to avoid direct confrontation with the U.S. military; a kind of deterrent after the fact to save Beijing from admitting defeat, and to prevent other countries from following suit. Without it, China’s “one-China” principle [by which it claims Taiwan as its territory], could have faced unprecedented levels of challenge from the international community, opening the door for Taiwan to increase its presence on the world stage. It was a face-saving exercise by the CCP aimed at mollifying rising nationalism at home. The current situation is different from the 1995-1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, which lasted for during months, with seven waves of military exercises by the PLA, and amid plans to capture Taiwan’s outer islands of Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu. The current exercise encircles Taiwan on four sides … and is more obviously aimed at the United States, particularly the conventional missile test launches in the waters east of Taiwan. This arrangement helps prevent the U.S. military from intervening in the Taiwan Strait. The most eye-catching part of this exercise, and likely its biggest deterrent effect, lies in the test launch of conventional missiles. Some missiles were fired east of Taiwan, and passed through Japan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), before landing in Japanese economic exclusion zone. Will this trigger a chain reaction in security cooperation between the U.S. and Japan? This will be the focus of attention in the next few days. All six of the PLA’s military training zones fall within Taiwan’s ADIZ, while the areas off Keelung and Kaohsiung overlap with Taiwan’s territorial waters, meaning parts of them are less than 12 nautical miles (about 22 kilometers) off the Taiwanese coast, in a direct challenge to Taiwan’s sovereignty and in line with what the United Nations terms “national aggression.” Research indicates the PLA’s naval and air forces will conduct long-range live ammunition shooting outside the Taiwan defense zone and will not risk approaching Taiwan’s territorial waters. The incursion into Taiwan’s territorial waters seems intended as a psychological deterrent to Taiwan. It’s not out of the question that small amounts of ordinance could find their way into Taiwan’s territorial waters, and if they do, this could present new issues for Taiwan around how to respond. With the exercises taking place in Taiwan’s ADIZ, the median line of the Taiwan Strait disappears. The appearance of part of the exercise area in Taiwan’s territorial waters compresses the depth of Taiwan’s defense to its minimum range, posing fresh challenges to the island’s military. Taiwan Air Force Mirage fighter jets taxi on a runway at an airbase in Hsinchu, Taiwan, Friday, Aug. 5, 2022. China says it summoned European diplomats in the country to protest statements issued by the Group of Seven nations and the European Union criticizing threatening Chinese military exercises surrounding Taiwan. Credit: AP PLA thinking and capabilities In terms of sea and air…
China fires ballistic missiles into the sea off Taiwan
Unprecedented Chinese live-fire maritime drills got underway on Thursday with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) launching ballistic missiles into the waters around Taiwan, the Taiwanese defense ministry said. The Chinese military “launched a number of Dongfeng ballistic missiles into the waters surrounding northeastern and southwestern Taiwan at about 13:56 p.m.,” the ministry said without specifying the range. Matsu, Wuqiu, Dongyin and some other outlying islands have been put on heightened alert after the PLA fired long-range rockets in the surrounding areas, the ministry added. Before the launch, the PLA threatened to fire missiles over Taiwan and enter the island’s territorial waters for the first time, in a scenario that analysts describe as ‘The Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis.’ Chinese military helicopters fly past Pingtan island, one of mainland China’s closest point from Taiwan, on August 4, 2022, ahead of massive military drills off Taiwan. CREDIT: AFP China’s ‘irrational action’ Chinese international state broadcaster CGTN said “military exercises and training activities including live-fire drills around Taiwan island” have begun. The PLA “conducted long-range live-fire shooting training in the Taiwan Straits on Thursday at around 1:00 p.m. and carried out precision strikes on specific areas in the eastern part of the Taiwan Straits,” CGTN added. The state-supported Global Times said the Chinese military “conducted long-range artillery live-fire shooting drills in the Taiwan Straits, striking targets on the eastern side of the Straits and achieving the expected outcome.” Taiwan’s defense ministry said it has activated relevant defense systems, and strengthened combat readiness. “The Ministry of National Defense condemned this irrational action that undermines regional peace,” it said in a statement. The maritime drills at six locations around Taiwan, that started on Thursday and last until Sunday, are set to be larger in scale than those in 1996 during the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis, and also unprecedented in many ways. For the first time, Chinese troops are expected to enter the 12-nautical-mile (22 kilometers) waters around Taiwan which, according to the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea, serve as the island’s sovereign territorial waters. Conventional missiles are expected to be test-launched from naval vessels that are sailing to the east of Taiwan and from the mainland, according to the PLA Eastern Theater Command. Chinese analysts, quoted by state media, said the missiles “would fly over the island.” “We need to recognize that we are in a major militarized crisis, and start calling it by its name: the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis,” said Christopher Twomey, a China military expert at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School who spoke to RFA in a personal capacity. “What will get the most attention are missile tests, particularly if they land close to Taiwanese claimed waters or fly over Taiwanese territory,” he said. Newspapers in Beijing on Wednesday, reporting Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan and showing maps of locations where the PLA will conduct military exercises and training activities including live-fire drills. CREDIT: Reuters High level of attention In the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis (1995-1996), a series of missile tests was conducted by the PLA in the waters surrounding Taiwan and the PLA live ammunition exercises led to intervention by the U.S., which staged the biggest display of American military might in Asia since the Vietnam War. “The six areas in which the PLA will execute its live-fire drills until Sunday clearly delineate a military encirclement of Taiwan. To me, it looks like a prelude or preparations for a future scenario that is not primarily focused on amphibious assault, but on blockade,” said Nadège Rolland, a senior fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR), a U.S. private think-tank. “If this is the case, it will not only choke Taiwan, but also directly impact Japan’s security, and the region’s civilian transit as several Asian airlines have already canceled their flights over the broader area,” said Rolland, who previously served as a senior advisor on Asian and Chinese strategic issues at the French Ministry of Defense. “The exercises will generate a high level of attention from both Taiwan’s military and that of the United States. Both will want to ensure that the exercises are not a cover for an even more offensive action, but also will want to learn about Chinese capabilities and operational practices,” Christopher Twomey said. The maritime drills that see PLA troops entering an area within 12 nautical miles of Taiwan were announced on Tuesday evening when Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi landed in Taipei for a brief but highly symbolic visit. Pelosi is the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit the democratic island in the last 25 years. Beijing has repeatedly condemned the visit as a “grave violation” of China’s sovereignty and integrity, and threatened the “strongest countermeasures.” ‘Irresponsible drills’ Taiwan’s defense ministry said in a statement that by announcing air-naval live-fire drills around the island, Chinese leaders “made it self-evidently apparent that they seek a cross-strait resolution by force instead of peaceful means.” U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan in a media interview on Wednesday called the drills “irresponsible” and they would “make the chance of an incident real.” “The actors involved are certainly the same as for the three crises in 1954, 1958 and 1995-96, but the geostrategic context is very different,” said NBR’s Nadège Rolland. “In each of the three previous crises, the U.S. intervened militarily and the military tensions between the PRC [People’s Republic of China] and the ROC [Republic of China] were prolonged but diffused after a rapid initial escalation,” said Rolland, referring to China and Taiwan by their official names. “It remains to be seen whether the U.S. will get involved this time,” she said, noting that if the survival of Taiwan and Japan is at stake, “it will be impossible for the U.S. not to intervene at a minimum to safeguard the freedom of the sea lanes on which transit the majority of international commerce.” On Thursday morning, the U.S. Air Force dispatched an RC-135S reconnaissance aircraft to observe the drills but the USS Ronald…
China may fire missiles over Taiwan as part of live-fire drills
Unprecedented Chinese live-fire maritime drills got underway on Thursday with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) threatening to fire missiles over Taiwan and enter the island’s territorial waters for the first time in a scenario that analysts describe as “the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis.” Chinese international state broadcaster CGTN said “military exercises and training activities, including live-fire drills around Taiwan island” have begun. Conventional missiles are expected to be test-launched from naval vessels that are sailing to the east of Taiwan and from the mainland, according to the PLA Eastern Theater Command. Chinese analysts, quoted by state media, said the missiles “would fly over the island.” Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense said it is closely monitoring the situation, strengthening military alerts, and “will respond appropriately.” The ministry said that unidentified aircraft, probably drones, were spotted over Taiwan’s Kinmen islands on Wednesday night. During the day, 22 Chinese military aircraft also crossed the median line dividing the Taiwan Strait, it said. On Thursday morning, the U.S. Air Force dispatched a RC-135S reconnaissance aircraft to observe the drills but the USS Ronald Reagan, the U.S. Navy’s only forward-deployed aircraft carrier, seems to have moved north towards Japan, according to a Beijing-based think-tank that has been tracking regional military movements. “USS Ronald Reagan and her strike group are underway in the Philippine Sea continuing normal, scheduled operations as part of her routine patrol in support of a free and open Indo-Pacific,” a U.S. Navy Seventh Fleet spokesperson was quoted by Reuters as saying. The maritime drills that see PLA troops entering an area within 12 nautical miles (22 kilometers) of Taiwan were announced on Tuesday evening when Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi landed in Taipei for a brief but highly symbolic visit. Beijiing has repeatedly condemned the visit as a “grave violation” of China’s sovereignty and integrity, and threatened “strongest countermeasures.” Pelosi is the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit the democratic island in 25 years. Taiwan’s defense ministry said in a statement that by announcing air-naval live-fire drills around the island, Chinese leaders “made it self-evidently apparent that they seek a cross-strait resolution by force instead of peaceful means.” U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, in a media interview on Wednesday, called the drills “irresponsible” and said they would “make the chance of an incident real.” Chinese military helicopters fly past Pingtan island, one of mainland China’s closest point from Taiwan, on August 4, 2022, ahead of massive military drills off Taiwan. CREDIT: AFP Joint military exercises The PLA’s Eastern Theater Command already conducted a number of military exercises around Taiwan after the U.S. House Speaker’s arrival. The joint naval-air exercises, which started on Tuesday and continued on Wednesday, were carried out in the north, southwest and southeast waters and airspace off Taiwan, according to the PLA Daily. Maj. Gen. Gu Zhong, deputy chief of staff of the PLA Eastern Theater Command was quoted by the newspaper as saying the Chinese troops conducted “targeted training exercises of joint blockade, strikes on land and maritime targets, airspace control operations as well as the live firing of precision-guided munitions.” “This round of joint military operations is a necessary response to the dangerous move made by the U.S. and Taiwan authorities on the Taiwan question,” Gu was quoted as saying. The maritime drills, that started on Thursday and last until Sunday, have attracted the most attention, not least because they are set to be larger in scale than those in 1996 during the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis but also unprecedented in many ways. For the first time, Chinese troops are expected to enter the 12-nautical-mile waters around Taiwan which, according to the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea, serve as the island’s sovereign territorial waters. “We need to recognize that we are in a major militarized crisis, and start calling it by its name: the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis,” said Christopher Twomey, a China military expert. “What will get the most attention are missile tests, particularly if they land close to Taiwanese claimed waters or fly over Taiwanese territory,” he told RFA. In the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis (1995-1996), a series of missile tests were conducted by the PLA in the waters surrounding Taiwan. The PLA live ammunition exercises led to the U.S. intervening by staging the biggest display of American military might in Asia since the Vietnam War.
ASEAN ratchets up criticism of Myanmar junta as Russian FM visits Naypyidaw
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) ratcheted up its criticism of member state Myanmar’s junta on Wednesday, as Russia’s top diplomat visited Naypyidaw despite international outrage of the regime’s execution of four prominent democracy activists. In a speech delivered at the opening ceremony of the 55th ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Phnom Penh on Wednesday, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, whose nation holds the rotating chair of the bloc, acknowledged that no progress has been made on Myanmar’s political crisis, despite junta chief Snr. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing’s pledge to end violence in April last year. Hun Sen said that if the junta continues to execute its political opponents he would be forced to “reconsider ASEAN’s role” in mediating Myanmar’s conflict. “The situation is now very volatile with the execution of the four opposition activists, and can be said to be worse than before the Five-Point Consensus (5PC),” he said, referring to the agreement Min Aung Hlaing made with ASEAN in April 2021 during an emergency meeting on the situation in Myanmar. “ASEAN is deeply shocked and horrified by the execution of these opposition activists.” ASEAN’s 5PC called for an end to violence, constructive dialogue among all parties, the mediation of such talks by a special ASEAN envoy, the provision of ASEAN-coordinated humanitarian assistance and a visit to Myanmar by an ASEAN delegation to meet with all parties. Even Min Aung Hlaing acknowledged that the junta had failed to hold up its end of the bargain on the consensus in a televised speech on Monday in which he announced that the junta was extending by six months the state of emergency it declared following its Feb. 1, 2021 coup. He blamed the coronavirus pandemic and “political instability” for the failure and said he will implement “what we can” from the 5PC this year, provided it does not “jeopardize the country’s sovereignty.” Frustration with the junta boiled over last week after it put to death veteran democracy activist Ko Jimmy and former opposition lawmaker Phyo Zeya Thaw, as well as activists Hla Myo Aung and Aung Thura Zaw, despite a direct appeal from Hun Sen to Min Aung Hlaing. The executions prompted protests in Myanmar and condemnation abroad, including from outspoken ASEAN member-state Malaysia, which said “no Myanmar military regime representative” should be allowed at any meeting of the bloc, including this week’s gathering of foreign ministers from ASEAN countries and nearly 40 ASEAN partner nations. Wednesday’s comments sounded a different tune for Hun Sen who, on assuming the ASEAN chair earlier this year, predicted that he would use his skill as a negotiator to resolve the situation in Myanmar. Hun Sen’s decision in January to become the first foreign leader to visit Myanmar following the coup was widely panned by the international community as conferring legitimacy on the junta and he has since remained relatively quiet while the crisis has worsened. Call for stronger measures Speaking to RFA Khmer, observers said ASEAN stakeholders should not remain silent on the junta and suggested that the bloc call on the United Nations to intervene in Myanmar if it is unable to resolve the crisis on its own. Cambodian political analyst Em Sovannara said that refusing the junta a seat at the table for ASEAN gatherings doesn’t go far enough. “For example, the ASEAN Chair should start talking to Myanmar’s [shadow] National Unity Government (NUG), not the military government,” he said. Similarly, Soeung Senkaruna, spokesman for the Cambodian rights group Adhoc, said ASEAN should review its 5PC and, if unable to resolve the crisis, seek assistance from the U.N. “There should be strong measures in place to punish the abuse and killing of innocent people,” he said. “We think that with no such measures, Myanmar’s dictatorial leaders will continue to persecute their opponents in any way they see fit.” Attempts by RFA to reach Cambodian Foreign Ministry spokesman Chum Sontory for comment on the situation in Myanmar went unanswered on Wednesday. Long lines of vehicles wait at a filling station in Yangon, April 19, 2022. Credit: AP Photo Russian visit While many Western governments have sought to punish Myanmar’s junta for killing what rights groups say is at least 2,148 civilians over the past 18 months, Russia has continued to support the regime both diplomatically and militarily. Moscow reiterated that support on Wednesday when, ahead of attending the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Phnom Penh, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited Naypyidaw and met with Min Aung Hlaing and junta Minister of Foreign Affairs Wunna Maung Lwin. Details of the meetings remain unknown, but in a post on Twitter Russia’s foreign ministry cited Lavrov as saying that Moscow “appreciate[s] the traditionally friendly nature of our partnership, which is not affected by any opportunistic processes,” apparently in reference to efforts by the international community to sanction the junta. The junta’s foreign ministry said Lavrov and Wunna Maung Lwin “cordially exchanged views on promotion of bilateral relations and cooperation and reaffirmed their commitment to enhance cooperation between the two countries in the multilateral arena based on mutual trust and understanding.” RFA Burmese was unable to reach junta Deputy Information Minister Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun for further comment on the meetings Wednesday. Lavrov’s visit comes two weeks after Min Aung Hlaing traveled to Russia on an unofficial trip, which political analyst Ye Tun described as part of the junta’s bid to secure weapons from Moscow. “The frequent back-and-forth visits between the leaders and the Russian foreign minister’s current visit all point to expanded economic ties between Russia and Myanmar and the effort to obtain military assistance – especially military equipment – from Russia,” he said. Lavrov said in a press release on Tuesday that his trip sought not only to promote bilateral relations, but also strengthen economic cooperation and defense and security ties. Amid the uptick in cooperation between Russia and Myanmar since the coup, the two countries’ relationship has become increasingly complex. Complex relationship Myanmar-based political analyst Than Soe Naing said the…
Pelosi visit renews debate of self determination of Taiwan
Lawmakers in Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan expressed cross-party support for U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit, rejecting threats from Beijing amid an ongoing debate on the democratic island about the strength of its ties with the United States. Opposition Kuomintang lawmaker Chiang Wan-an said Beijing, which announced live-fire military exercises on the eve of Pelosi’s arrival, has no right to prevent sovereign countries from having international visitors. “The Republic of China is a sovereign and independent country,” Chiang said, using the formal name of Taiwan’s government that dates back to the 1911 revolution under Sun Yat-sen. “Congress in particular represents the people, so there are mutual visits,” he said. “Such an overreaction by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is unnecessary.” “We also hope that the relevant parties can guard against the escalation of military tensions around Taiwan,” Chiang said. Ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lawmaker Lo Chih-cheng said Pelosi’s visit would significantly boost Taiwan’s faith in the U.S.’ commitment to its security, however, Taiwan’s official Central News Agency (CNA) reported. Chiu Hsien-chih of the New Power Party, said the visit would likely pave the way for the U.S.’ unequivocal support for Taiwan in the future, the agency said. But Chieh Chung, an associate researcher at Taiwan’s National Policy Research Foundation, warned of possible incursions by Chinese military aircraft during Pelosi’s visit. “Sending planes into Taiwan’s airspace will cause even more conflict,” Chieh told. “I think the CCP’s purpose is to make a strong impression on Taiwan and the area around it, not to actually create conflict [but] to make the situation very tense with a high-intensity show of force.” “But the purpose will probably be a show of force or the threat of it,” he added. A U.S. military aircraft with US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on board prepares to land at Songshan Airport in Taipei on August 2, 2022. Credit: AFP Missile launches possible Chieh said regular incursions were likely across the median line of the Taiwan Strait, particularly at its narrower sections. “July, August and September usually see intensive periods of advanced tactical training for the CCP army, so they may just adjust the timing of some exercises,” Chieh said. “At the same time, we could see a large-scale missile test launch, even of DF-17, YJ-21 or DF-21D anti-ship missiles, which could be tested on sea targets,” he added. He said the main concern was the threat of military accidents or miscalculations sparking full military conflict. “Accidents are a concern when you have such a high density of military activities in the same area,” Chieh said. “Any unexpected incident could cause a sudden and rapid escalation in the situation, which could even trigger an unexpected military conflict.” “That’s what we should be most worried about right now.” Kuan-ting Chen of the Taiwan Next-Gen Foundation think tank, said there is an ongoing debate within Taiwan about how best to win greater international recognition and participation in the face of the threat of Chinese invasion. Chen said that China’s military expenditure has jumped from about 80 billion yuan in the late 1980s to 1,476 billion yuan in 2022, an 18-fold increase. “There will be a debate within Taiwan about how to ensure peace in the Taiwan Strait and the stability of the government regardless of the circumstances,” Chen told. “[It’s about] ensuring that there are no changes to the living standards, economy or political life because of [tensions with China],” he said. Widespread public support Associate professor Huang Kui-po of Taiwan’s National Chengchi University said Pelosi’s visit seems to have garnered fairly widespread public support in Taiwan, despite the military threats from Beijing. “The reason for the support is that Congress is an elected body, and the representatives of the people from both Taiwan and the United States should visit each other,” Huang said. “Another faction believes that Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan may raise tensions in the Taiwan Strait,” he said. “But tensions are going to rise sooner or later; there could be a ripple effect.” Much of the public debate appears to be around a lack of certainty that the U.S. would commit to a full-scale military involvement in Taiwan’s defense, should China invade. The Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation found in an April 2022 poll that a majority of 53.8 percent of Taiwanese adult do not believe there will be a U.S. military intervention in the event of a Chinese invasion, while only 36.3 percent said they believe there would be. Paul Huang, research fellow at the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation, wrote in a recent op-ed article that public confidence in U.S. military support had “decisively turned skeptical” following the lack of intervention in Ukraine following the Russian invasion. “The lack of a direct US military intervention to help Ukraine (despite all kinds of military and non-military aid, intelligence sharing, and other assistance) had a major impact on the Taiwanese public’s confidence in U.S. military intervention and drove a significant number, as much as a quarter of the Taiwanese, toward non-confidence,” Huang wrote for Inkstick Media. Meanwhile, the majority of the Taiwanese public has been very sympathetic toward Ukraine and is highly supportive of Western-led sanctions against Russia, Huang wrote. A majority of supporters of President Tsai Ing-wen’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) do believe in U.S. intervention, while 70 percent of “government workers” who include those on active military service don’t, Huang said, citing recent polls. Punishing Taiwan, not the US Yujen Kuo of Taiwan’s Institute for National Policy Research said any meeting between Pelosi and Tsai will be of “great historic significance” for many in Taiwan, however. “So far, the White House and the State Department have been quite cautious, but Pelosi visiting Taiwan will set a new paradigm,” Kuo said. But he warned that any response from China will likely seek to punish Taiwan rather than the U.S. “I worried about [Chinese] military exercise around the median line of the Taiwan Strait, because this has never happened before, and if a large…
Russia backs China on Taiwan as sanctions, incursions expected during Pelosi visit
Russia on Tuesday backed Beijing’s disapproval of an expected visit by U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi to the democratic island of Taiwan, calling it a “provocation,” as China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) engaged in live-fire military exercises across the Taiwan Strait. Foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told a news briefing that Moscow opposes Taiwanese independence “in any form.” Her comments came as the official media of the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) made no mention of escalating tensions across the Taiwan Strait after Chinese leader Xi Jinping warned President Joe Biden not to “play with fire” ahead of Pelosi’s planned arrival on Tuesday evening. Neither the People’s Liberation Army Daily nor the CCP’s official newspaper, the People’s Daily, made any mention of the story, with the People’s Daily leading with agricultural developments in Fujian. However, the English-language Global Times ran a top story titled “Tension escalates hours ahead of Pelosi’s potential Taiwan visit as PLA remains fully prepared for any crisis.” It said any visit by Pelosi would be “a serious provocation and violation to China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity which would be met with severe countermeasures from the Chinese military.” The article largely repeated comments also made on Tuesday by Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying. It also cited a maritime safety warning to shipping reporting live-fire military exercises off Weifang in the Bohai Sea on Aug. 3, while “military training in parts of the South China Sea” was reported by the Guangdong maritime authorities. The paper’s former editor Hu Xijin tweeted on Tuesday: “Based on what I know, in response to Pelosi’s possible visit to Taiwan, Beijing has formulated a series of countermeasures, including military actions.” Hu also tweeted on Monday: “If she dares to stop in Taiwan, it will be the moment to ignite the powder keg of the situation in the Taiwan Straits.” Tacit understanding? Current affairs commentator Johnny Lau said he expects there is more likely to be a tacit understanding between Beijing and Washington enabling Xi to step up the appearance of military threat to boost his support at home. “Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan is highly beneficial to Xi Jinping, who is taking the opportunity ensure that top military and political figures must unite around him ahead of the 20th CCP national congress [later this year],” Lau said. “The mainland could have the PLA’s planes cross over the median line of the Taiwan Strait, and neither the U.S. nor Taiwan will attack them,” he said. “Both sides know where the lines are drawn, and whoever fires the first shot will be responsible [for starting a war],” he said. “Everyone is flexing their muscle in what is both a political show and a military gesture aimed at certain circles,” Lau said. Wu Qiang, an independent researcher at Beijing’s Tsinghua University, said China could also announce sanctions on members of the Congressional delegation, including Pelosi, including banning them from entering China. “If the Chinese ministry of foreign affairs imposes sanctions after Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, it would be no more than the sanctions imposed on other U.S. politicians in recent years,” Wu said. “They could ban them from entering China or Hong Kong, freeze their assets there, and ban companies from doing business with their families,” Wu said. Diplomacy failures He said Beijing has little other recourse short of military action. “Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan marks an unprecedented change in Sino-U.S. relations, which is of course due to the failure of Chinese diplomacy [in recent years],” he said. China has also suspended imports from 35 Taiwanese exporters of biscuits and pastries since Monday. Taiwan’s Central News Agency reported on Tuesday that China has listed 2,066 foodstuffs as being subject to “import suspension.” Wu said such trade sanctions would likely continue as international support for the democratic island, which has never been ruled by the CCP, nor formed part of the People’s Republic of China, grows. He said China could also try to restrict international maritime access to the Taiwan Strait. “They could declare that the Taiwan Strait is China’s territorial waters, and its airspace part of China’s airspace, and say that foreign vessels [or aircraft] must get approval from China to enter them,” Wu said. International relations scholar Zhong Shan agreed. “China will definitely react in some way, maybe by including Taiwan in its Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) … with military aircraft flying over or around the island,” Zhong said. “It’s fairly easy for the foreign ministry to whip up populist sentiment, but it’s not so easy to suppress it again,” he said. Translated and edited by Luisetta Mudie.
Jokowi ends NE Asia tour aimed at bolstering support for G20 summit’s success
Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, the leader of G20 President Indonesia, undertook a carefully curated tour of Northeast Asia this week to ensure multilateral support for the group’s summit in November amid divisions over Russia’s war in Ukraine, analysts said. The Indonesian president visited China, Japan and South Korea – all countries with important trade and investment ties to Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Jokowi’s trip sent “a message of concrete cooperation and friendship amid a global situation steeped in rivalry and containment efforts,” Indonesian Foreign Minister told reporters in Seoul, the last leg of Jokowi’s five-day tour. “The leaders appreciated President Jokowi’s leadership in contributing to global peace,” she said. Indonesia has often strived to balance its relations between China and its rival superpower, the United States. But in his role as this year’s holder of the revolving G20 presidency, Jokowi has had to step up his diplomatic game by playing a mediatory role to blunt the wedge that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine created in the group, observers said. On one side, western countries in the Group of Twenty have condemned Russia for invading Ukraine. On the other, member-states including China, Indonesia and India, have refused to follow suit and still maintain ties with Moscow. Still, there is no doubt Jokowi wants the G20 summit, scheduled for November in Bali, to be a success, analysts said. “The trip was relevant to Indonesia’s chairmanship of the G20,” David Sumual, chief economist at Bank Central Asia, told BenarNews, an RFA-affiliated news service. “Indonesia wants to make sure the G20 summit is successful and attended by all members,” he said. According to Agus Haryanto, an analyst at Jenderal Soedirman University in Purwokerto, Indonesia is concerned about the prospect of no agreement at the Bali summit. “At the G20, Indonesia faces a major challenge on what the outcome of the G20 summit in November will be,” he said. “With good relations with the three countries [China, Japan and South Korea], Indonesia is looking for support to smoothen things out and reduce tensions.” Jokowi, whose term ends in 2024, wants to leave a legacy of being a peacemaker and reaffirm the country’s “independent and active” foreign policy, Agus said. “During his first term, the president paid less attention to foreign affairs. Now in his second term, Jokowi has shown that domestic politics and foreign policy are equally important.” Tense meetings Under Indonesia’s presidency, G20 meetings have been fraught, as most have occurred after the invasion of Ukraine in late February. At the group’s foreign ministers’ meeting in Bali earlier in July, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov walked out – at least once – during what he called the “frenzied castigation” of Moscow over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Before that, top U.S. British, Canadian and Ukrainian financial diplomats walked out as a Russian official addressed a G20 meeting in Washington on April 20. “The trip will also undoubtedly strengthen support for Indonesia’s G20 presidency, especially in preparation for the summit” in Bali, Foreign Minister Retno said on Thursday about her boss’s visits to Beijing, Tokyo and Seoul. Indonesian President Joko Widodo (left) shakes hands with South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol at the Presidential Office in Seoul, July 28, 2022. Credit: Yonhap via Reuters ‘Respect international law’ Jokowi’s trip to Northeast Asia also showcased Indonesia’s non-aligned foreign policy, which helped him secure U.S. $13 billion in investment pledges in total from China, Japan and South Korea. At a meeting between Jokowi and Japan’s top executives on Wednesday, 10 Japanese companies pledged a total of U.S. $5.2 billion in investments in the next few years, Indonesian officials said. These include a pledge by carmaker Toyota Motor Corp to invest $1.8 billion to build its electric vehicles in Indonesia over the next five years. In Seoul, South Korean companies expressed intentions to invest $6.72 billion, including in the electric vehicle battery, steel and gas sectors. In addition, China said it wanted to increase crude palm-oil imports from Indonesia by 1 million tons, worth $1.5 billion. While investment pledges are welcome, Ninasapti Triaswati, an economist at the University of Indonesia, cautioned about economic and defense deals with China in light of Beijing’s growing assertiveness in the South China Sea. “China’s aggressive actions in the area are causing regional tensions. Likewise, regional tensions between China and Taiwan and Japan will have a negative impact on the ASEAN region and East Asia.” In a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Jokowi stressed the importance of peace in the South China Sea, said Retno, Indonesia’s top diplomat. The only way to maintain stability and peace is to respect international law, especially UNCLOS 1982,” she said, referring to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. BenarNews is an RFA-affiliated news service.
UN Security Council joins condemnation of Myanmar junta’s execution of 4 activists
The U.N. Security Council condemned the Myanmar military’s execution of four democracy activists over the weekend but stopped short of calling for new sanctions against the junta as its forces continued attacks in the country’s Sagaing region. A statement issued on Wednesday by the 15 members of the council echoed one issued on Monday by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) denouncing the killings of the activists despite numerous appeals that their death sentences be reconsidered. The Myanmar military, which overthrew the elected government in a February 2021 coup, said on Monday that it had executed the activists for aiding acts of terror as part of the civilian opposition and resistance to the regime. The Security Council response “noted ASEAN’s call for utmost restraint, patience and efforts to avoid escalating the situation, and for all parties concerned to desist from taking actions that would only further aggravate the crisis.” The statement also called for the full implementation of the five-point consensus agreed to in April 2021 to end to violence in post-coup Myanmar and put the country back on the path to democracy. And it called for the immediate release of deposed leaders President Win Myint and State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi. Security Council members also called for “an immediate halt to attacks on infrastructure, health and education facilities, for full respect for human rights and the rule of law, and for full, safe and unimpeded humanitarian access to all those in need.” But Justice for Myanmar, a group of activists campaigning for justice and accountability for the people of Myanmar, criticized the U.N. council’s response as insufficient. “Yet, no sanctions, no referral to the Int’l Criminal Court + members #China, #India & #Russia continue to arm the Myanmar military. Time UN Security Council ends its shameful inaction!” the group tweeted. The Group of Seven (G7) foreign ministers of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States, and the High Representative of the European Union also condemned the executions. “These executions, the first in Myanmar in over thirty years, and the absence of fair trials show the junta’s contempt for the unwavering democratic aspirations of the people of Myanmar,” they said in a statement issued Thursday. “We continue to condemn in the strongest terms the military coup in Myanmar and express deep concern about the political, economic, social, humanitarian and human rights situation in the country,” they said. Thousands flee homes in Sagaing The criticism by the U.N. and G7 came as at least 10 civilians, including two teenagers, were killed in Sagaing’s Khin-U township and more than 10,000 others from 17 villages fled their homes amid clearance operations by junta forces that began last week, local sources told RFA on Thursday. Northwestern Myanmar’s Sagaing region has the largest number of participants in the anti-junta Civil Disobedience Movement, a strike of professionals like doctors and teachers to resist military rule, and the strongest armed resistance to the junta. Among the dead in Khin-U township are Khant Nyein, 13, from Myin Daung village; National League for Democracy township organizer Aung Naing Win, 35, from Shin Min Dway village; Aung Hman, 66, from In Daing Gyi village; Htay, 52, from Myin Daung village; Si, 89, and Ohn Thee, 35, from Letpanhla village; and Pho Khoo, 18 from Laung Shey village, the sources said. RFA does not yet know the identities of the others killed. A township resident, who found the charred body of Aung Naing Win, said the army brutally killed ordinary civilians. “The military has been attacking villages in the area in four columns in the past 10 days,” he said, adding that soldiers burned about 50 houses and mostly slit the throats of those who were killed. The elderly woman named Si died on Wednesday when her house in Letpanhla village was set on fire, another local said. “The woman died in a fire that burned 11 houses,” said the local who declined to be identified for safety reasons. “They set fire to the house knowing that she was inside.” Another township resident said more than 10,000 people from 17 villages were forced to leave their homes and around 50 homes were destroyed by fire due to the military raids in the area. “There are about 12 villages in the surrounding area, and there must be about 12,000 to 13,000 people [who have fled their homes], the person said, adding that residents usually ran to nearby communities about two or three miles away. A resident of Moung Kyauk Taw village, who did not want to be named for safety reasons, said he saw the soldiers set fire to the village, destroying more than 20 houses. “It wasn’t an accidental fire. It was arson. We have witnesses,” the person said, adding that he and others watched soldiers enter the community and saw three or four of them set fire to the houses. “We lost everything, and we have no place to live. We can’t buy any palm leaves [for roofing], and we don’t have money. We are now living under bullock carts,” he said. Locals said they did not know which battalion the soldiers who raided the villages were from. RFA could not reach military spokesman Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun or Sagaing military council spokesman Aye Hlaing for comment. Myo Aung, an official from the township’s Letpanhla village, said the actions of Myanmar’s junta were “cruel and inhumane.” Rural areas bear brunt The latest killings came despite claims by the shadow National Unity Government (NUG) that public administrations under its direction control around 80% of the region’s rural areas in 36 townships where the military has not been able to exert its influence. “People’s police forces have also started to be established to ensure the rule of law in areas where the public administrations have begun to operate,” said NUG spokesman Kyaw Zaw. Public administration officials said the NUG hands down its policy and agenda to public administration groups at the township level…
Beijing bites back over repeated rumors of Pelosi’s Taiwan visit
China ratcheted up its already strong response to U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s plans to visit Taiwan, with the Ministry of Defense in Beijing threatening military action. Ministry spokesman, Sr. Col. Tan Kefei, told a media briefing on Tuesday that, should Pelosi insist on making the visit, “the Chinese military will never sit idly by, and will certainly take strong and resolute measures” to retaliate. The U.S. “must not arrange for Pelosi to visit the Taiwan region,” he said. China considers the self-governed democratic island a breakaway province and its reunification a matter of “national sovereignty and territorial integrity.” Britain’s Financial Times first reported on the planned visit last week, saying it would be part of a tour that will also include Japan, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia. Pelosi and her entourage will also make a stopover in Hawaii to visit the headquarters of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, the paper said. It would be the first time since Newt Gingrich’s 1997 trip that a U.S. House speaker has visited the island. U.S. officials have not confirmed the news but President Joe Biden indicated that the military “did not think it was a good idea right now” for Pelosi to visit Taiwan. The much talked about trip by the Speaker of the House of Representatives, the third most senior figure in the political system, has created a huge headache for U.S. policymakers. Biden is expected to discuss it, among other issues, with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in a telephone call on Thursday. It would be the fifth such conversation since Biden became U.S. president in January 2021. ‘Fourth Taiwan crisis’ Before the defense ministry delivered its official response, the Chinese foreign ministry had already protested against the reported trip, saying the U.S. must be prepared to “assume full responsibility for any serious consequence arising.” Analysts say with so much tension over the alleged visit, U.S.-China relations are entering a “perilous period.” Taylor Fravel, Director of the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), wrote on Twitter that Pelosi’s visit seems likely “as other members of Congress cast her visit as a question of what China can or cannot ‘dictate’ to Congress.” This would “create even stronger incentives for a forceful response,” as Xi Jinping’s “policy, reputation and credibility will be seen to be at stake.” “We’re heading straight toward a Fourth Taiwan Strait crisis,” Fravel warned, referring to previous crises in the Taiwan Strait. The last one was in 1996 and ended after U.S. intervention. Some Taiwanese analysts disagree with the assessment, saying the possibility of a war is low. “This is not good timing for Xi to wage a fourth Taiwan crisis,” said Ming-Shih Shen, a senior expert at the Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR). There are only a few months left before the opening of China’s most important political event – the Chinese Communist Party’s Congress – where Xi is believed to be seeking an unprecedented third term. “The situation’s being exacerbated perhaps by those who oppose Xi’s leadership within the Party in order to create troubles [for him],” Shen said. To go or not to go? Despite China’s hawkish response, Pelosi should still make the visit, said the Taiwanese expert, adding that it would work for her domestically, too. Carl Schuster, a retired U.S. Navy captain and former director of operations at the U.S. Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center, said that China’s coercion tactics “work only when countries allow them to do so” and the United States “should stand up to China.” “China’s economy is not in better shape than ours and China is not going to war over Pelosi’s visit,” he said. “Bowing down to Chinese bullying makes us look weak at a time when we need to appear strong. Weakness, like withdrawing our embassy and trainers, encouraged Putin to invade Ukraine. We can’t make that mistake twice,” Schuster added. “The current tensions over Speaker Pelosi’s putative visit to Taiwan puts the Biden Administration in a no-win situation,” said Carl Thayer, a veteran regional expert. “If Speaker Pelosi decides to visit Taiwan, Xi Jinping will have no recourse but to provoke a crisis to demonstrate China’s resolve. This will put further strain on U.S.-China relations and undermine efforts underway by Biden to find some common ground with China,” the Canberra-based analyst said. The Biden Administration, in his opinion, “has not yet had to respond to a major incident of Chinese bullying and also has not gone out of its way to provoke a confrontation with China.” “If Pelosi decides to go and China throws down the gauntlet, this will be the first test for President Biden to call China to account and push back against its bullying,” Thayer said.
Interview: Former Trump China adviser Miles Yu wants NATO to go global
Historian Miles Yu, a former China adviser to the Trump administration, has called in a recent op-ed article for NATO to create a broader security alliance including the Indo-Pacific region, in a bid to stave off a Chinese invasion of democratic Taiwan. “There is an emerging international alliance, forged in the face of today’s greatest global threat to freedom and democracy,” Yu, who served as senior China policy and planning advisor to then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, wrote in the Taipei Times on July 11, 2022. “That threat comes from the China-led, Beijing-Moscow axis of tyranny and aggression,” the article said. “And the new alliance to counter that axis may be called the North-Atlantic-Indo-Pacific Treaty Organization — NAIPTO.” Yu argued that NATO’s strength would be “augmented” by robust U.S. defense alliances covering Eurasia, as well as the Indian, Atlantic, and Pacific oceans. “Such scale is necessary because NATO nations and major countries in the Indo-Pacific region face the same common threat. Common threats are the foundation for common defense,” Yu said. In a later interview with RFA’s Mandarin Service, Yu said the idea would solve several problems. “The first is to unify the U.S. global alliance system, which [is currently divided into] a European-style alliance that is multilateral, involving the joint defense of more than 30 countries,” Yu said. “In the Asia-Pacific region, the nature of the alliance is bilateral, that is, the United States has bilateral treaties with Japan, South Korea and the Philippines, but there is no mutual defense system between Japan, South Korea and the Philippines,” he said. “My proposal … is to unify the global alliance system of the United States and turn it into a multilateral collective defense treaty,” he said. He said NATO members and countries in the Indo-Pacific are facing a common threat, particularly since the Russian invasion of Ukraine had brought Beijing and Moscow closer together. “China and Russia are basically on the same page,” Yu said. “Both China and Russia are singing from the same hymn sheet when it comes to strategic statements and their understanding of the Russian-Ukrainian war.” “They are both in favor of making territorial claims against other countries based on civilization and language.” United States Naval Academy professor Miles Yu, a former China adviser to the Trump administration, poses for a photo during an RFA interview in Livermore, California, Oct. 16, 2021. Credit: RFA Common threat He said “ancestral” and “historical” claims on territory run counter to the current state of the world and internation law, and were effectively illegal. “The CCP and Russia have stood together and have recently acted together militarily,” Yu said, citing recent joint bomber cruises in the Sea of Japan, and joint warship exercises in the East China Sea. “Militarily, these moves are very meaningful; they mean that neighboring countries all face a common threat,” he said. He said European countries could perhaps be persuaded to contribute more funding for such an alliance, now that the EU appears to be following Washington’s lead in regarding China as its No. 1 strategic rival. “The United States cannot continue to keep up military spending on NATO as it did in the past,” Yu said. “This strategic shift shouldn’t require much persuasion for NATO’s European members, as they have a perception of the global threat from China that is more in line with that of the U.S. now.” Asked if that shift in perception would extend to helping defend Taiwan, which has never been ruled by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and whose 23 million people have no wish to give up their sovereignty or democratic way of life, Yu said Ukraine may have changed thinking in Europe on Taiwan. “The people of Taiwan and the people of the world have learned a lot from recent developments, especially from the war in Ukraine,” Yu said. “What happened in Ukraine was something done by Russia, so, would the CCP do the same thing to Taiwan? Logically, philosophically, they would,” Yu said. “The CCP supports Russian aggression against Ukraine … because it senses that Russia has set a precedent, for which the next step would be Taiwan,” he said. “So European countries are going to have a keener sense of the need to protect Taiwan.” “If everyone unites to deal with the military threat from China and its economic coercive measures, the CCP won’t be so bold,” Yu said, citing China’s economic sanctions against Australia after the country started taking a more critical tone with Beijing. “The CCP got angry and imposed large-scale economic sanctions on Australia, stopped buying its coal, and stopped buying its wine,” Yu said. “But if Australia were to join this alliance, it could take joint action to deal with China’s unreasonable measures.” “The CCP would stand to lose a lot, because this would be collective action, and the likelihood of further outrageous actions would be greatly reduced,” he said. He added: “Many countries in the world, especially those in the Asia-Pacific region, are dependent on China’s economy, but China is also dependent on these countries for energy and markets. This is a two-way street.” Translated and edited by Luisetta Mudie.
