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Category: East Asia
New construction spotted on Myanmar island
New satellite images show renewed construction on a Myanmar archipelago close to India’s strategic islands, raising concerns about China’s geopolitical intentions in the region, a British think tank said. In a report titled “Is Myanmar building a spy base on Great Coco Island?” the independent policy institute Chatham House analyzed a number of satellite images of Coco Islands in the Bay of Bengal, taken in January this year but only recently released by the U.S. space technology firm Maxar Technologies. The archipelago consists of two main islands, Great Coco and Little Coco, and a number of smaller islets including Jerry Island located at the southern tip of Great Coco. They are some 55 kilometers (34 miles) north of the strategic Andaman and Nicobar Islands where India stations some major military facilities. A map showing the location of the Coco Islands. Credit: GoogleMaps The images “show renewed levels of construction activity on Great Coco,” Chatham House said in a new report. The most recognizable change was the lengthening of the airport runway from 1,300 meters over ten years ago to 2,300 meters. Analysts said the runway was also widened and two new hangars were added. “The width of the hangar appears to be close to 40 meters, limiting the list of aircraft it may eventually accommodate but opening the possibility for high-performance aircraft to be stationed there,” they said. This satellite image shows two aircraft hangars next to the runway at the Coco Island airport. Credit: Maxar Technologies The report’s authors spotted some new buildings to the north of the airport, a radar station and “a large pier is also visible.” In the southern part of the island, a causeway can be seen under construction, connecting the tip of the Great Coco to Jerry Island. Some land clearance is visible on the latter, they said, “indicating the future extension of Great Coco’s facilities.” China’s involvement? Chatham House’s analysis of Maxar’s imagery did not reveal any foreign military presence on Coco Islands, contrary to the rumors that China installed a signals intelligence station here in the early 1990s. The latest images however revealed that “Myanmar may soon be intending to conduct maritime surveillance operations from Great Coco Island.” “Growing evidence suggests Myanmar’s military coup has increased Beijing’s influence in the country,” the report said, pointing to China’s large investment projects in Myanmar that lead to Beijing’s increasing influence over the Tatmadaw, or the Myanmar military. “With the Coco Island developments, India may soon face a new airbase close by in a country increasingly tied to Beijing,” the analysts said, “The militarization of the Coco Islands by the Tatmadaw, combined with the wider Chinese developments occurring inland, could pose a significant security challenge to India and its navy.” Satellite image of a radar station located south of the runway on Great Coco Island, January 2023. Credit: Maxar Technologies The Coco Islands are 1,200 kilometers (746 miles) from the Strait of Malacca, through which around 40% of global trade passes. China has long been interested in securing access to this critical trade route. In 2018, China and Myanmar signed a memorandum of understanding on the establishment of the so-called China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, part of the Belt and Road Initiative, under which China will help Myanmar develop major infrastructure projects including roads, railways, and seaports. There are fears it would increase Myanmar’s economic dependence on China, giving Beijing significant geopolitical leverage. Edited by Mike Firn.
Hun Sen’s eldest son tops Cambodian ruling party’s candidate list ahead of July vote
Long tapped as his father’s successor to lead Cambodia, Hun Manet has been put at the top of the list of 12 parliamentary candidates for the Phnom Penh constituency in the July 23 general elections. Before he runs, Hun Manet, 45, the eldest son of Hun Sen, who has ruled since 1985, is expected to resign from the military – per election rules – where he is deputy commander-in-chief of the Royal Cambodian Armed Forces. Hun Manet posted a short video clip to his Facebook page on Monday, saying that Cambodia would remain independent and strengthen ties with all countries around the world – not just China. “Cambodia’s policy today is not being so close to China and not being so close to anyone,” he said. “It stands neutral, but we encourage and are determined to boost up close relationships with all the nations. “That is our correct policy. We get closer to China, the United States and Japan and we get closer to all other nations,” he said. “That’s what we want.” Hun Manet has had extensive experience overseas. A graduate of the elite United States Military Academy at West Point, he holds a masters in economics from New York University and another graduate degree from the University of Bristol in the United Kingdom. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, speaking at a hospital inauguration on Monday, says he will continue to hunt and eliminate opposition groups out of the political arena to protect peace and the constitutional monarchy. Credit: Hun Sen Facebook ‘I have to protect my power’ Speaking at the inauguration of a hospital on Monday, Hun Sen used harsh language to respond to recent criticisms of his leadership and his son. The prime minister seemed to target a Buddhist monk now living in exile in Massachusetts who recently criticized Hun Manet for not being qualified to lead the country. In comments posted on Facebook on Sunday, the Venerable Buth Buntenh also said that if Hun Manet became prime minister, he would only do his father’s bidding. “The black guy, who lives in the U.S. – people would know when I call him the black guy,” Hun Sen said while not using Buth Buntenh’s name. “Last night, he said that Hun Sen fears losing power. What you said is right, the contemptible black guy. I have to protect my power because your people always attempt to kill me, why not let me protect it?” Hun Sen also said he would continue to hunt and eliminate opposition groups – who he accused of committing treason – out of the political arena to protect peace and the constitutional monarchy. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim reviews an honor guard with Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Sen in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, on March 27, 2023. Credit: Cambodia’s government cabinet/Handout via Reuters Warning to foreign embassies He also cautioned “Cambodia’s foreign friends” who support opposition party groups and politicians. “You have to choose between an individual group that breaks the laws and the government,” he said at the hospital inauguration in Tbong Khmum province. “Please choose one. If you need those who were penalized by law, please do so, and you can then break diplomatic relations from Cambodia.” The ruling CPP and Hun Sen have been working to silence and intimidate opposition figures ahead of the July general elections through a series of arrests and lawsuits. In the most high-profile example, opposition party leader Kem Sokha was sentenced to 27 years for treason last month in a court decision that was widely condemned as politically motivated. The charges against Kem Sokha related partly to a video recorded in 2013 in which he discusses a strategy to win power with the help of U.S. experts. The United States Embassy has rejected any suggestion that Washington was trying to interfere in Cambodian politics. Hun Sen also mentioned last week’s visit to Phnom Penh of Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. “He declared that the powerful countries should stop interfering into the affairs of other countries,” Hun Sen said. “I fully support him. I’ve got another good counterpart in ASEAN.” Political analyst Kim Sok said Hun Sen’s language on Monday was “undiplomatic.” Foreign embassies in Phnom Penh – such as the United States – are working to cooperate with Cambodia based on a 1991 multinational agreement that formally ended decades of war in the country and paved the way for parliamentary democracy, he said. “They just monitor the situation to see if Cambodia walks in the path of democracy and multi-liberal pluralism, which is enshrined in the Paris Peace Agreements,” he said. Translated by Sok Ry Sum. Edited by Matt Reed and Malcolm Foster.
Australia-Papua New Guinea security agreement concerns China, says PNG’s top diplomat
Beijing has raised concerns about a proposed security agreement between Papua New Guinea and Australia, the Pacific island country’s foreign minister said Monday as he returned home from an official visit to China seeking development assistance for his nation. The prime ministers of Papua New Guinea and Australia said earlier this year that they wanted negotiations for a wide-ranging bilateral security treaty to be done by the end of April. Australia is the largest donor to Papua New Guinea. Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang “raised China’s concerns on [the] proposed PNG-Australia Bilateral Security Treaty and its intended purposes,” Papua New Guinea Foreign Minister Justin Tkatchenko said in a statement Monday. The two officials met in Boao, Hainan province, last week. Qin, Tkatchenko said, “went on to seek reassurances that the purported bilateral security arrangement with Australia was not in some way seeking to counter China’s influence in PNG and the Pacific.” Tkatchenko’s statement highlights the balancing act for Pacific island countries as China and the United States vie for influence in the vast ocean region. Over several decades, China has become a significant source of trade, infrastructure and aid for economically lagging Pacific island countries as it seeks to diplomatically isolate Taiwan and gain allies in international organizations. Last year, Beijing signed a security pact with the Solomon Islands, alarming the United States and its allies such as Australia. The small island nations also hope to gain from renewed U.S. interest in the region. However, some leaders have said they don’t want to be swept up in superpower competition or to be forced to take sides in the Sino-American rivalry. In his statement, Tkatchenko said he explained to China’s foreign minister that the proposed security agreement with Australia was not only about defense and would cover a range of security areas from policing to biosecurity. He also asserted that Papua New Guinea’s recent decision to close its Taiwan trade office was due to a need to cut costs rather than geopolitics. “It will be one focused more on building PNG’s capacity and capabilities to face these security challenges from the external environment but more importantly internally,” he said. “It will not be solely [a] defense agreement between PNG and Australia.” Qin also mentioned China’s concerns about the agreement for Australia to acquire nuclear-powered submarines next decade under the AUKUS security pact with the United Kingdom and the United States, according to Tkatchenko. AUKUS is widely understood to be part of U.S. efforts to contain China, which now rivals the United States in economic power and is rapidly building up its military arsenal. Qin, said Tkatchenko, “compared this alliance to a typical Cold War mentality” that goes against aims of nuclear nonproliferation and the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone created by the 1986 Rarotonga Treaty. Tkatchenko said he explained Papua New Guinea’s strong support for the Pacific being a nuclear-free zone. China bankrolled Papua New Guinea’s hosting of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in 2018, which brought together leaders of countries that comprise about 60% of the world economy. Beijing’s promise at that time to help Papua New Guinea build hundreds of kilometers of roads has not materialized. Tkatchenko said Qin reassured him of China’s ongoing support for Papua New Guinea projects it is involved in including rebuilding of police barracks in Port Moresby and maintenance of the international convention center, which was built for the APEC meeting. China and Papua New Guinea would also renew discussion on the possibility of direct flights between Port Moresby and Shanghai, he said. BenarNews, an RFA-affiliated online news service, produced this report.
Dried pineapple and meatballs: A president’s favorite snacks
Lisa Cheng Smith’s mom told her learning Chinese would come in handy one day and on Thursday it did. Cheng Smith, who grew up in Texas, describes her Chinese language skills as just “OK.” But they were good enough to welcome Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen to Yun Hai, a small market store she co-owns with Lillian Lin in Brooklyn’s Williamsburg neighborhood. The two showed off their store’s collection of goods sourced from the island, including dried pineapple, which Tsai sampled. “She’s very charming and sweet,” Cheng Smith said of Tsai. Tsai also stopped at Win Son, a Taiwanese American bakery and café next door where she took a few questions. The president’s favorite snack is bawan, which is a type of Taiwanese meatball, Cheng Smith said. The drop-by wasn’t a complete surprise. Advance teams told Cheng Smith and Lin to expect a group of VIPs to visit. Cheng Smith thought Tsai may be one of them, but her mother, who was born in Taiwan, told her not to get her hopes up. “She knows I’m sensitive,” she said. Lisa Cheng Smith holds a copy of the Taiwanese cookbook she co-authored with Cat Yeh and Lillian Lin and at the Yun Hai shop in Brooklyn, New York, Thursday, March 30, 2023. Credit: Gemunu Amarasinghe/RFA The artisan shop features a variety of Taiwanese products, including the Tutong rice cooker, a ubiquitous instrument in Taiwan. Cheng Smith and Lin have sought to build more demand for it in the U.S. by developing their own Taiwanese recipe book with their collaborator, Cat Yeh. The Yun Hai Tatung Family Cookbook is sold at the store, as is a cookbook by Win Son owners Trigg Brown and Josh Ku and collaborator Cathy Erway, a food blogger and cook. There are also an assortment of dried fruits, a staple of the Taiwanese diet that is much less sugary than American ones, and various cooking and seasoning oils, among other products. Cheng Smith still isn’t sure why her shop was chosen, but it has been the subject of write-ups in Foreign Policy and New York magazines as well as a variety of publications in Asia. The name of the store, Yun Hai, means “sea of clouds” and refers to a fog that settles over the mountains of Central Taiwan and makes the region a fertile spot to grow tea, according to the store’s website. Tsai’s trip to Brooklyn was a feel-good detour on a foreign trip with heavier geopolitical implications. China views Taiwan as part of its territory and makes its displeasure known when foreign officials meet Taiwanese leaders. Beijing has threatened retaliation if Tsai goes through with a planned meeting with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in Los Angeles. The president is due to stop in the U.S. city on her way home after visits to Guatemala and Belize, two countries that still have diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Cheng Smith demurred when asked about the political situation Taiwan faces. But she said that she and Lin, who grew up in Taipei, wanted Yun Hai to provide Taiwanese small farmers another market after China banned pineapple imports from Taiwan in 2021. Cheng Smith said they also are hoping to teach Americans more about the country, which they might know only for its tech prowess or the bicycles it produces. “The more people who feel connected to Taiwan, the better,” she said.
Activists sue China’s education ministry over rainbow flag reprimand
Two LGBTQ+ students from Beijing’s Tsinghua University have lodged an administrative lawsuit against China’s Ministry of Education after being harassed and threatened by the authorities over their sexuality. In May 2022, Huang and Li bought 10 rainbow flags on the auction site Taobao, and left them on a small table in a campus supermarket, with a note that read: “Please take one #PRIDE.” The pair, who asked to be identified by pseudonyms for fear of further reprisals, had already given a great deal of thought to what they knew was a highly risky action. They considered posting about the flags on social media, but they knew the authorities would be able to track them down, as they had been forced to use their real names to sign up for an account. Then they remembered an anti-fascist poster that had mysteriously appeared on the wall of the campus supermarket, and that the lack of surveillance cameras in the area had meant the students who put it there were never found. It wasn’t until they had already put the flags in place that they realized that cameras had now been installed in the area, leaving them “terrified” over what would happen next. But Huang told herself that 10 rainbow flags wasn’t going to have a massive impact on the life of the university. Within two hours, they were getting calls from school officials wanting to talk to them about the flags, and warning them that the incident could affect their chances of graduating, and threatening them with possible expulsion. They refused to meet with officials, who then went and found them in their respective dorm rooms, accusing them of “distributing prohibited propaganda material.” By June 30, they had been issued with notification of punishment, and submitted a written defense to the student affairs office in accordance with school procedures. The school responded in July with disciplinary action in the form of a “severe warning,” which would remain on their official file and affect their chances of pursuing scholarships, further study or jobs working for the government. ‘I knew I was doing the right thing’ Huang and Li were furious, and vowed to fight back. “I was in a state of anger every day,” Li said. “But I knew I was doing the right thing, so I didn’t feel scared.” “It felt more as if I was getting some good practice in how to defend my own dignity, and that of my companion, and in not backing down.” Within hours of placing the flags, the students received calls from school officials wanting to talk to them about the flags. By July 2022, the school disciplined the students with a “severe warning” [shown], which would remain on their official file and affect their chances of pursuing scholarships, further study or jobs working for the government. Credit: Courtesy of the respondents They went public with the incident on July 18, posting to WeChat that they were being punished for the rainbow flag incident, in a post that garnered more than 100,000 views and which was later deleted by government censors. By the end of the month, they had filed an official complaint with the university, which upheld the original disciplinary action. So they took it further, lodging a complaint with the Beijing municipal education commission, arguing that they had left the flags for people to pick up, rather than distributing them, and that rainbow flags aren’t illegal in China. But the response from the government was the same as that of the university. Li, the child of a middle-class family, had been greatly affected by her experience of lockdown in the central city of Wuhan in the spring of 2020, in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. “I knew that a lot of people in my [residential] community had died, and I was affected by knowing that my neighbors were dying,” she said. “Since then, I’ve had no illusions about the current system at all.” The formal warnings issued to Huang and Li expired after six months, but that wasn’t good enough for the two friends, who wanted to dispel the notion that it is wrong to fly a rainbow flag. “It’s a matter of our reputation,” Huang said. “By punishing us, the school made a lot of people feel that we did something disgraceful.” “We also want to do some public advocacy on this matter, and start a public discussion about sexual minorities in universities,” she said. So Huang and Li took their lawsuit all the way to the top, lodging an administrative lawsuit with the Ministry of Education, and calling on its officials to review their case. “We have to take the legal process all the way, so that this winds up in the legal archives, in the media and in online archives,” Li said. “I believe that history will eventually judge us fairly.” “For me, this is a political declaration, and I have to take it all the way, or I wouldn’t be able to live with myself,” she said. But both activists still feared possible retaliation from the authorities. Huang wrote to her family coming out as a lesbian, and detailing all of her actions and the reasoning behind them since May 2022, with a view to sending it if the police came looking for her. They submitted their case to the Beijing No. 1 Intermediate People’s Court on Feb. 20, and have yet to receive a response. Party views on LGBTQ+ activists The ruling Chinese Communist Party currently regards LGBTQ+ rights activists as being influenced by “hostile foreign forces” seeking to undermine its rule, and openly queer public figures are gradually disappearing from mainstream media, film and television under the watchful eye of government censors. Huang and Li, who met at a queer book club and put the flags out to mark the International Day Against Homophobia, Biphobia, Lesbophobia and Transphobia on May 17, came to a realization of their own sexuality in a piecemeal way, despite having…
North Korean hacker group poses as journalists and experts to steal intel
A criminal cyber spy group believed to be backed by the North Korean government poses as journalists, academics and experts to trick its victims into giving out information that can be used for espionage. It also spoofs websites of legitimate organizations to trick targets into giving out information that can be used in cybercrimes the group carries out to fund itself, according to a new report that tracked the cyber attackers’ operations over five years. Google Cloud’s cybersecurity subsidiary firm Mandiant classified the group, which it calls APT43 and which it has been monitoring since 2018, as a “moderately-sophisticated cyber operator that supports the interests of the North Korean regime.” The designation of the group as a “named threat actor” indicates that Mandiant’s cyber analysts had enough evidence to attribute activity to a specific group. APT stands for “advanced persistent threats,” which the firm says are groups that “receive direction and support from an established nation state.” APT43 has also been called “Kimsuky” or “Thallium” by other firms, which have their own naming conventions. Mandiant believes the firm could be part of North Korea’s main foreign intelligence agency. “APT43 has demonstrated it can be quite fluid at adapting to the needs of the regime and shifts their targeting accordingly,” Gary Freas, a senior analyst at Mandiant, told RFA. According to the report, APT43 conducted espionage against South Korean and U.S.-based government organizations, members of academia and think tanks that deal with North Korean geopolitical issues, and engaged in cyber crime to steal and launder crypto currency. Impersonating experts APT43’s most common attack involves impersonating experts or journalists in spear-phishing emails with the goal of getting information out of its victims. In this scheme, the attacker poses as a reporter or a think tank analyst to collect intelligence, including by asking experts and academics to answer questions on topics related to North Korea. Often the attackers pretend to be people who are well known in their field to develop rapport with others in the field before asking them to provide strategic analysis on specific subjects. People watch a TV broadcasting a news report on North Korea firing a ballistic missile over Japan, at a railway station in Seoul, South Korea, October 4, 2022. Credit: Reuters In a sample example provided in the report, an attacker pretended to be a journalist with an email address ending in “@voanews.live,” which is similar to the “@voanews.com” addresses used by journalists working for U.S news outlet Voice of America. The email requested a reaction to an Oct. 4, 2022, North Korean ballistic missile launch that flew over Japan, including asking the recipient if it meant that another North Korean nuclear test could be imminent, and if Japan might increase its defense budget or pursue a more “proactive” defense policy. Because the focus of these types of attacks is often North Korean security and nuclear development, Mandiant believes “with moderate confidence” that APT43 operates under the Reconnaissance General Bureau, or RGB, North Korea’s main foreign intelligence service. “Campaigns attributed to APT43 are closely aligned with state interests and correlate strongly with geopolitical developments that affect Kim Jong-un and the hermit state’s ruling elite,” the report said. “Since Mandiant has been tracking APT43, they have consistently conducted espionage activity against South Korean and U.S.organizations with a stake in security issues affecting the Korean peninsula.” Mandiant also noted that it detected a shift in the group’s activity between October 2020 and October 2021 toward targeting the health care sector and pharmaceutical companies, likely to gather information to support a North Korean response to COVID-19. This indicates that the group adapts to changing priorities of the North Korean government. “The kinds of questions we’re seeing them ask when they commission papers and when they ask for interviews are very much about potential responses to different stimuli,” Jenny Town, director of the Washington-based Stimson Center’s 38 North Project, during a discussion about APT43 in a podcast hosted by Mandiant. “And really, [they’re] trying to better understand how different actions might be perceived, presumably to help them better decide where red lines are,” she said. Emails indicate objectives Town, who has herself been targeted by APT43 and impersonated by them when they target others, said that the emails can show what North Korea’s goals might be. “The questions they’re asking make a lot of sense and give us a sense of the kinds of things they might be thinking of doing as well,” she said. “It’s always been really interesting to see the evolution and what they’ll ask different people.” Freas said that the questions in the emails often show North Korea’s intent. “Whenever APT43 goes after people, pretending to be a reporter or prominent analyst, they ask questions that are so specific to the regime’s priority intelligence requirements that they show us their hand,” he said. “This gives us good insight into what’s going on in the closed off nation and that data is very insightful to security vendors and for people that are trying to investigate this.” Town said that other experts have come to consider it an indication of their success in the field when they are impersonated by what seems to be North Korean cyber attackers. APT43 has also been known to target organizations for information about sanctions items that are banned for export to North Korea, the report said. During the same podcast, Mandiant analyst Michael Barnhart said that APT43’s methods tend to work on older victims. “Some of the younger folk aren’t so [eager] to click on a suspicious link, and so you might not get them quite there,” said Barnhart. “You’re looking at kind of an older crowd that probably has a little less cyber hygiene.” ‘Good at what they do’ “What this group lacks in sophistication they make up for in volume,” said Freas. “It is unique to see the success they are having with such widely known and frequently leveraged techniques.” Freas explained that APT43 extensively researches people they can spoof…
Taiwan speeds up preparation for potential conflict with China
Taiwan’s military is bolstering its preparation for a possible future war with China by planning an unprecedented military drill at a civilian airport this coming July, the official Central News Agency (CNA) reported. The military aircraft emergency landing and takeoff drill will be staged at Taitung Fengnian Airport on the southeast coast of Taiwan. The scenario is that Taiwan’s military airports and airstrips would be severely damaged in attacks by mainland China, forcing fighter-jets to land at civilian airports or on highways, the CNA quoted an unnamed military source as saying. The military is looking to turn a section of Highway 9 “into an emergency landing strip” and a section of a road in Taitung County into an emergency runway, the same source said. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense has not commented on the details because of the sensitivity of the issue. The drill at Taitung Fengnian Airport will be carried out as part of the annual Han Kuang military exercise, held in July. Han Kuang, Taiwan’s major war games, tests the island’s combat capabilities against a possible Chinese invasion. China considers the democratic island of Taiwan one of its provinces and intends to reunite with the mainland, by force if necessary. In response to any major political events or to any support given to Taiwan by its allies, China regularly holds live-fire exercises in the Taiwan Strait or intensifies the flyovers by its military aircraft. When Nancy Pelosi, the first U.S. House Speaker to visit Taiwan in 25 years, arrived in Taipei last August, Beijing announced a week-long military exercise around the island. ‘No unusual military movements’ Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen is en route to Central America via the United States, and is to make a stopover in California on her way back to Taiwan from a visit to Guatemala and Belize. While in California, she is expected to meet with the incumbent U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Beijing has threatened retaliation, with China’s Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson, Zhu Fenglian, saying that if the meeting took place, China would “definitely take measures to resolutely fight back.” Yet on Thursday, Taiwan National Security Bureau Director General Tsai Ming-yen told the parliament that “the government expected a less severe reaction” from Beijing than when Pelosi visited Taiwan. Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen speaks during a dinner reception in New York, March 30, 2023. Credit: Taiwan Presidential Office via AP On Friday, the defense ministry said only two Chinese military aircraft and three naval vessels were spotted overnight near Taiwan and none had crossed the median line in the Taiwan Strait that marks the de facto boundary between the island and the mainland. But on Friday morning, nine PLA aircraft crossed the line, the ministry announced. U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby on Wednesday urged China not to use Tsai’s transit “as a pretext to step up any activity around the Taiwan Strait.” Meanwhile, “the Americans are belatedly trying to figure out how to defend Taiwan,” said Grant Newsham, author of a new book on a potential Taiwan conflict, “When China Attacks: A Warning to America.” “The People’s Liberation Army is capable of launching an assault across the Taiwan Strait, and it – or more importantly, Xi Jinping, thinks it can succeed,” Newsham, a retired Marine colonel who’s extensively studied the cross-strait military situation, told Radio Free Asia (RFA). “China has been planning and getting ready to invade Taiwan for at least the last few decades,” he said. “The PLA will hit Taiwan hard and fast while isolating Taiwan electronically and physically,” Newsham added. “It will intimidate the Americans into standing clear.” In his opinion, the upcoming Taiwan presidential election in January 2024 is particularly important. “If a ‘pro-China’ candidate wins, Beijing just might back off and rely on their Taiwanese proxies to force Taiwan to give in and accept mainland dominance,” the analyst said. “But if the candidate that wants to stay free from Chinese communist dominance wins, I would expect Beijing to use force against Taiwan.”
UK’s Labour Party to recognize Uyghur genocide if it wins elections
The United Kingdom’s opposition Labour Party will aim to declare the Chinese government’s treatment of the Uyghurs a genocide if it wins the next general election. Labour Member of Parliament David Lammy, who serves as Shadow Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs, said he “would act multilaterally with our partners” to get China’s actions recognized as genocide through international courts, he told Politico. “What we’ve seen from China is that they continue to be more internally repressive and obviously there were huge concerns in Xinjiang,” Lammy told Politico on Tuesday during an event arranged by the left-wing think tank the Fabian Society, where he introduced Labour’s foreign policy plan for government. “We’ve got to challenge China and they are definitely a strategic competitor in essential areas, and we’ve got to hold them to account on human rights — but there are areas where it’s important to cooperate,” he said, according to the report. “Parliament took a decision about genocide, the international community is very concerned about genocide,” he was quoted as saying. Lammy’s comments come as pressure builds to stop China’s repression of Uyghurs and other Turkic Muslims in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region amid a growing body of evidence documenting the detention of up to 1.8 million Uyghurs and others in “re-educations” camps, torture, sexual abuse and forced labor. The U.S. has branded China’s actions genocide and the United Nations has said they may constitute crimes against humanity. But the United Kingdom has avoided doing so, preferring that the matter be determined by international courts. In April 2021, most members of the UK Parliament voted in favor of a motion declaring that the Chinese government was committing genocide against Uyghurs in Xinjiang, though it did not compel the British government to act to recognize it. China has consistently denied the allegations and said the camps were vocational training centers to prevent religious extremism and terrorism. Uyghur activists hold a vigil outside the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office in London on Feb. 13, 2023. Credit: AFP Polls indicate that the Labor Party is favored to win the next election after more than a decade in opposition. The next general election is scheduled to be held no later than Jan. 28, 2025. Rahima Mahnut, the UK director for the World Uyghur Congress, welcomed Lammy’s comments. “I am so pleased that the shadow foreign secretary has confirmed the Labour Party shares this policy and that he has committed to working multilaterally with international partners to secure accountability for Uyghur people,” she told RFA on Thursday. “I hope that this means that countries in Europe and across the world see that it is time to follow suit.” Luke de Pulford, executive director of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, noted that Labour shadow ministers have regularly described what is happening to Uyghurs as genocide. “The real test will be whether Labour sticks to this line when in government,” he said. “Of course, if the UK were to act to declare genocide, it would engage our responsibilities under the Genocide Convention and necessitate serious action.” Translated by RFA Uyghur. Edited by Roseanne Gerin and Malcolm Foster.
Tsai talks in US – behind closed doors
Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen has wasted little time since touching down in New York on Wednesday, delivering one speech shortly after her arrival with a second set for Thursday night. But it’s been hard to nail down the details. The controversial “transit” through America’s biggest city – en route, apparently, to official visits in Taiwanese allies Guatemala and Belize – is in part taking place behind closed doors, with press not invited. “They are very serious about keeping this a private event,” said Patrick Cronin, the Asia-Pacific security chair at the Hudson Institute, which is hosting Tsai’s speech at the Intercontinental Hotel. Taiwanese officials, Cronin told Radio Free Asia, did not want to create “unnecessary pressure and dissent” with a public speech, with Tsai also set to be presented with a global leadership award. “TECRO set the rules,” he said, referring to the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office, Taiwan’s de facto embassy. “It’s not Hudson setting the rules,” he said, but “the Taiwan government.” Careful diplomacy Tsai appears to be walking a fine line, advocating Taiwan’s case against Beijing during her trip while avoiding prodding it too much. Chinese officials have already warned of “countermeasures” after the visit, and even of a “serious, serious, serious confrontation.” Each of Tsai’s previous six “transits” through the United States – one in 2016, two in 2017, another in 2018, and two in 2019 – attracted far less attention, coming at times of relative calm in U.S.-China relations. Dennis Wilder, research fellow with the U.S.-China Dialogue on Global Issues at Georgetown University and a former CIA deputy assistant director for East Asia and the Pacific, told RFA on Tuesday that the “kind of events” Tsai holds this time would shape Beijing’s reaction. “For example,” Wilder said, “if she were to give speeches where there would be live coverage of the speech, that would be a new kind of step; were she to give speeches that were incendiary in some way from Beijing’s point of view … we could see a harsh reaction.” The few snippets of Tsai’s visit that has taken place in the public eye so far have largely been tame, avoiding Taiwanese independence and other themes that could complicate U.S.-China relations. In an earlier speech to supporters after arriving Wednesday, Tsai thanked the United States for its support and vowed to continue working with Taiwan’s partners in the face of threats from Beijing. “At this juncture, our partnerships with the United States and other democracies are more critical than ever,” Tsai said in the speech. “We know that we are stronger when we stand together in solidarity with fellow democracies. Taiwan cannot be isolated.” Thawing relations Her trip comes at a fraught time for ties between Washington and Beijing, with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken canceling a trip to Beijing at the last minute on Feb. 4 after an alleged Chinese spy balloon was discovered floating across the United States. However, U.S. officials insist the trip was only “postponed,” and there are already signs Beijing and Washington are seeking a new date. Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen departs the Lotte Hotel in Manhattan in New York, Thursday, March 30, 2023. (Reuters) Rick Waters, deputy assistant secretary of state for China and Taiwan and the head of the State Department’s “China House,” last week paid a visit to China, meeting Chinese counterparts in Beijing, Shanghai and Hong Kong, department spokesman Vedant Patel said on Tuesday. “It was a working-level discussion,” Patel said, “about a wide range of issues that we have as it relates to our bilateral relationship.” Such a thawing gives U.S. officials reason to avoid an incident. In a call with reporters about Tsai’s trip on Thursday morning, Daniel Kritenbrink, the assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, said U.S. officials had offered guidance to their Taiwanese counterparts about Tsai’s “transit” through the United States. But he declined to say if they had advised against public speeches. “We are committed to making sure that President Tsai’s seventh transit of the United States is conducted smoothly and successfully, and we have worked closely with many of our Taiwan friends and counterparts to ensure that that is the case,” Kritenbrink said. “If you have any questions on the specifics of any event that will take place during President Tsai’s transits,” he said, “I would refer you to the Taiwan authorities and to those associated with the event itself.” Cutting room floor Even with the private nature of Tsai’s speeches, attacks from Chinese officials about the visit have continued since her arrival. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told reporters at a press briefing in Beijing on Thursday that the trip “gravely undermines China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and sends a seriously wrong message to ‘Taiwan independence’ separatists.” Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning [shown in this file photo] said Thursday that Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s trip “sends a seriously wrong message to ‘Taiwan independence’ separatists.” (Reuters) “This once again shows that the fundamental cause of the new round of tensions in the Taiwan Strait is the Taiwan authorities’ repeated attempt to solicit U.S. support for Taiwan independence and the fact that some in the U.S. intend to use Taiwan to contain China,” Mao said. “The Taiwan question is the very core of China’s core interests,” she added, “the bedrock of the political foundation of China-U.S. relations, and the first red line that must not be crossed in the relationship.” Xu Xueyuan, charge d’affaires at the Chinese embassy in Washington, also reportedly said Tsai’s visit could cause a “serious confrontation.” “The so-called ‘transit’ is merely a disguise to her true intention of seeking breakthrough and advocating Taiwan independence,” Xu was quoted as saying by Axios. Tsai’s trip, he added, “could lead to serious, serious, serious confrontation in the U.S.-China relationship.” Return ticket The worst from Beijing may be yet to come. Tsai departs New York for Guatemala at 11 a.m. on Friday and returns Tuesday to Los Angeles, where…
Junta jets bomb village in western Myanmar, killing 10
Two Myanmar military jets bombed a village in western Myanmar on Thursday where there was no fighting, killing at least 10 people and injuring 20 others, according to ethnic rebels and residents. The seemingly unprovoked attack on Khuabung village in Thantlang township in Chin state, near the Indian border, is the military’s latest use of air power in its sprawling offensive against anti-junta People’s Defense Force paramilitaries and ethnic armies. It’s a tactic that has become increasingly common as the country’s armed resistance makes greater gains. Such attacks are typically undertaken by the military to support troops fighting anti-junta forces with devastating effect. Chin National Front spokesman Salai Htet Ni told RFA Burmese that the strike by the two jets was unprovoked and clearly targeted a civilian population. However, Thantlang is one of several townships under martial law that the junta has targeted with multiple airstrikes since the start of the year. “They attacked this morning [at around 10:00 a.m.] without any battles happening,” Salai Htet Ni said. “They dropped bombs into a civilian village.” At least 10 residents were killed and 20 injured, he said. The airstrike set many of the village’s houses on fire, residents said. Khuabung, around 5 miles (8 kilometers) from the seat of Thantlang township, is home to more than 230 people living in 53 households. Increasing airstrikes According to the Chin Human Rights Organization, the military launched at least 53 airstrikes, dropping more than 140 bombs, on the townships of Mindat, Hakha, Matupi and Thantlang in the first two months of 2023 alone. The strikes killed five members of the Chin National Front and three members of local anti-junta People’s Defense Force, and also injured six civilians. In addition to the strike on Khuabung village on Thursday, the military also used Mi-35 aircraft to bomb areas it suspected were occupied by local PDF groups, the Chin National Front said. The military has yet to issue any statement regarding the bombing of Khuabung and attempts by RFA to reach Thant Zin, the junta’s spokesperson for Chin state, went unanswered on Thursday. A report issued by the U.N. human rights agency earlier this month said that junta airstrikes in Myanmar had more than doubled from 125 in 2021 to 301 in 2022. The report followed a joint statement on March 1 by Amnesty International, Global Witness, and Burma Campaign (U.K.) urging governments to sanction companies that sell jet fuel to the junta to limit the country’s air force. While international sanctions have limited the air force to some extent, former military officials in Myanmar have said they will never be fully effective while powerful countries, such as Russia and China, are backing the junta. Deaths and displacements in Shan state News of the airstrikes on Thantlang came as RFA learned that at least 33 civilians were killed and more than 5,000 displaced from southern Shan state’s townships of Pinlaung, Pekon and Mobye during the first three months of the year alone. Yin Lianghan, a spokesperson for the Shan Human Rights Foundation, said his organization had compiled the statistics after interviewing Buddhist monks displaced by the violence, as well as aid workers in the region. “These people have been severely displaced because of the junta’s heavy artillery shelling and a massacre in the Nam Neint village,” he said, referring to an incident on March 11, in which junta troops killed 21 civilians, including three monks, in a dawn raid on a monastery in Pinlaung before setting fire to the village. “The main reason why they have become refugees is because of the junta’s extrajudicial killing of innocent civilians,” he said. Residents who fled villages in southern Shan state, Myanmar, are seen in the town of Pinlaung, Sunday, March 26, 2023. Credit: Comet social group Junta Deputy Information Minister Major Gen. Zaw Min Tun has told pro-junta media that the Karenni National Defense Army committed the massacre in Nem Neint village, but the KNDF claims that it was the handiwork of the military. According to Shan Human Rights Foundation, at least two children were among those killed by the military shelling in Pinlaung and Mobye townships since the start of the year.. Tensions rising Khun Bwe Hone, the information officer for the ethnic Pa’O National Defense Force, told RFA that the deaths and displacements occurred amid rising tensions between the military and the ethnic Karrenni Nationalities Defense Force in the three townships, as the junta is preparing a major offensive in the area. “The junta is reinforcing its troops,” he said, noting that most villagers have already left the area in anticipation of the fighting. “Our defense forces have warned them to flee to safety. That’s why they left. This battle is likely to be drawn out because we are determined to fight against the military dictatorship … to the end and the enemy is going to do what it has set out to do, too.” A woman who fled fighting in the area told RFA on condition of anonymity that civilians are pouring into the seat of Pinlaung township from nearby villages to take refuge in camps for the displaced. A monastery and residential homes burn in Nam Neint village, Pinlaung township on March 11, 2023, following a raid by Myanmar junta forces. Credit: Inn Sar Kuu The exact number of refugees is unknown, said aid worker Khun Kyaw Shwe. While the refugees are receiving assistance from social support groups and area residents, they are in “desperate need of medicine,” as well as food and access to clean water, he said. “At the moment, local medical teams are taking care of them with what little medicine they have,” Khun Kyaw Shwe told RFA. “The demand for medicine is quite severe. The refugee camps are dealing with outbreaks of malaria, influenza and respiratory infections.” Only around 20 days of food stores remain for the camps in Pinlaung, he said, urging international donors to help fill the gaps. RFA was unable to reach Khun Thein Maung, the junta’s…
