Cambodians need consumer rights NGOs in an era of scams and scandals

Long gone is the heyday of Cambodia’s civil society, which a decade ago was the most vibrant and rumbustious in Southeast Asia.  The authoritarian Cambodian People’s Party (CPP), in power since 1979 and now firmly in control of a one-party state, saw it as a threat and has systematically crushed the public sphere since 2013. Some NGOs still exist and are performing brave work, but they have been greatly defanged and are petrified of lawsuits or dissolution by the ruling party.  Despite decades of tens of millions of dollars being pumped into Cambodia’s NGO sector, mainly from foreign governments, there has never been an association created that specifically represents the interests of consumers. There is apparently an NGO registered as the Cambodian Consumer Association, but it has no website and good luck trying to find out anything about its activity.  Leader of Cambodian People’s Party Hun Sen and his son Prime Minister Hun Manet release pigeons during a ceremony to mark the 45th anniversary of the fall of the Khmer Rouge regime in Phnom Penh on Jan. 7, 2024. (Tang Chhin Sothy/AFP) Consumers International, a global organization for consumer groups, has no affiliate in Cambodia, according to its website. “Without consumer protection associations,” a report on Cambodia stated, “there will be an imbalance of bargaining power between consumers, and producers and sellers of products and services. As a result, consumers’ rights are not fully protected.”  Indeed, on the one hand, consumption is increasing and habits are changing. Household final consumption expenditure rose to $18.1 billion in 2021, up from around $10 billion in 2011 and just $3.3 billion in 2001, according to World Bank figures. Cambodia’s e-commerce sector, difficult to regulate, is expected to surge in value to $1.78 billion in 2025, more than double what it was worth in 2020.  ‘Scam-state’ Yet, there remain major concerns about the quality of products being sold, especially by traders on Facebook, and other consumer protection issues. Certainly not helping the situation, Cambodia has gotten a damaging reputation as a country of scammers—a “scam-state”, if you like. More and more Cambodians are also becoming consumers of government services, including the expanding healthcare sector, and contributors to the state through growing taxation collection.  On the other hand, business groups, foreign corporations and the country’s powerful tycoons, many of whom have married into the political aristocracy, are increasingly calling the shots. A Cambodian protest against a controversial law regulating non-governmental organizations in Phnom Penh, July 24, 2015. (Tang Chhin Sothy/AFP) Hun Manet, who took over as prime minister from his long-serving father in August, has pitched himself as a friend to the capitalist class. His young government spent months preparing for its first Government-Private Sector Forum in November, at which Hun Manet stressed: “Today’s forum is also a testament to the close cooperation and culture of dialogue between the government and the private sector to jointly address the problems and concerns of investors in order to promote private sector development in Cambodia”.  The claim made by the CPP throughout the decades is that economic freedom is more important than political freedom. Yet rather unequal freedom when one side (the businesses and producers) has vast institutional power and the ear of the premier, yet there are no comparable groups defending the interests of consumers.  Cambodia only adopted a Law on Consumer Protection in November 2019, and the commerce ministry created a National Programme on Consumer Protection last year. A lengthy report published in late 2021 by the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, titled Law in the Digital Age: Protection of Consumer Rights, noted that the “actual implementation of [the Law on Consumer Protection] in promoting and protecting consumer rights is questionable.”  Southeast Asian examples Chapter Seven of this report, titled “Legal and Practical Considerations for Establishing a Consumer Association in Cambodia,”  is an interesting read on this topic. The report recommended that “civil society and nongovernmental institutions need to play an outstanding role as check and balance agents in overseeing consumer rights promotion and protection in both traditional and electronic commerce. Civil society and NGOs shall urge, support, and join the establishment of consumer associations in different sectors to ensure that consumer rights to safety, rights to information, rights to choose, rights to be heard of concerns, and rights to redress are guaranteed.” Cambodian security officers detain protesters in prisoner uniforms as they demonstrate against a controversial law regulating non-governmental organizations outside the National Assembly building in Phnom Penh, July 26, 2015. (Tang Chhin Sothy/AFP) There are good examples across Southeast Asia. One is the Consumers Association of Singapore, a non-profit, non-governmental organization. It runs comparison websites that provide consumers with information on prices charged by companies for everyday necessities and energy. It operates an Accredited Businesses List so that consumers can check if companies are reputable. Importantly, consumers can also submit complaints on its websites which are then investigated.  Elsewhere in Southeast Asia, there is also the Federation of Malaysian Consumers Associations, the Myanmar Consumers’ Union, a Foundation for Consumers in Thailand and a Coalition for Consumer Protection and Welfare in the Philippines.  An overarching “Consumers Association of Cambodia” would be a welcome addition to the public sphere and, with the right funding, including from foreign donors, could engage in the same roles as the Singaporean counterpart. Yet, more targeted associations would also be needed.  Using public money One area could be in tax. In 2013, domestic tax revenue was just $900 million, or around $60 per capita. By 2022, it had spiked to $3.45 billion, or $206 per capita. As such, most Cambodians have become taxpayers as well as consumers of government services in recent years. The National Social Security Fund, a national healthcare insurance, has expanded rapidly in recent years and  Hun Manet vows to expand it further. State expenditure has increased from $409 million (13 percent of GDP) in 2013 to $7.9 billion (27 percent of GDP) in 2022. Yet there remains no “Taxpayers Alliance of Cambodia”. Such an association would lobby the government to…

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Time is not on Myanmar junta’s side, almost 3 years after coup

In his televised New Year’s address to the country, Myanmar’s junta leader Min Aung Hlaing vowed to prioritize economic growth in 2024, apportioning all the blame for the country’s sharp economic contraction on the opposition his coup ousted almost three years ago.   Min Aung Hlaing made no mention of the military’s setbacks since the Three Brotherhood Alliance of ethnic armies in northern Myanmar launched their offensive on October 27, 2023. And while the losses, which include over 30 towns and the surrender of over 3,000 troops are real, the continued economic crisis remains the junta’s single largest vulnerability. Smoke rises from a burning Myanmar military compound amid clashes with armed group Ta’ang National Liberation Army in northern Shan State, Dec. 13, 2023. (AFP Photo) The economy has shrunk by 10-12 percent since the Feb. 1,  2021 coup that deposed the National League For Democracy-led government.  In a recent report, the World Bank predicted the country would only see 1% growth in 2024, given the “broad-based slowdown across productive sectors including agriculture, manufacturing, and trade.”  Over half the population is living beneath the poverty line, while the World Bank found that 40% of surveyed families saw a decline in income in 2023 compared to 2022. The kyat currency has lost half of its value since the coup and it now appears that the State Administrative Council (SAC), as the junta is formally known, has given up any hope of controlling it.  Forex woes In early December 2023, the Central Bank of Myanmar announced that it would no longer fix the exchange rate, allowing the currency to trade at market prices.  This was a tacit acknowledgement that the gap between the official rate of 2,100 kyat per U.S. dollar  and black market rate of 3,500 kyat per greenback was too large to ignore, and that the regime no longer had foreign exchange reserves to prop up the declining kyat.  The shortage of dollars also portends a further energy crisis. Electric black- and brown-outs have been common throughout the country, even in Naypyidaw. And shortages of gasoline and diesel increased in late-2023.  Fighters of Ta’ang National Liberation Army search a building after running over a compound belonging to Myanmar junta military in Shan State, Dec. 12, 2023. (AFP Photo) The SAC had subsidized energy imports by making dollars available to politically-connected energy importers at below market rates in order to ensure a steady supply of fuel. The junta no longer can afford that.  In late December, there were reports of tankers refusing to unload in Yangon’s Thaliwa port until they were paid, indicating a dire shortage of dollars. The regime has been encouraging border trade with China and Thailand, which is conducted in Chinese yuan or Thai baht. But the loss of key border areas is hampering that.  While SAC forces still control the border city of Muse, which handles almost 90% of border trade with China, the Three Brotherhood Alliance now controls the Mile 105 Trade Zone as well as a host of smaller border crossings, such as Chin Shwe Haw. Muse and Lashio are the only towns in northern Shan State that are still under junta control. Ethnic armies on the march The Three Brotherhood Alliance – Arakan Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and Ta’ang National Liberation Army – now controls almost all towns along highways 3 and 34, to the border.  Ta’ang National Liberation Army forces captured a military camp as far west as Nawnghkio, which is only 15 miles from Pyin Oo Lwin, home of the Defense Services Academy, though the Air Force has intensified airstrikes to retake the town.  Among advances by other ethnic armies, Karenni forces now control much of the state including the trade routes to Mae Hong Son in Thailand. The Karen National Union has been consolidating its position along the Thai border.  Fuel prices, delays at the border and increased transportation costs resulted in some $500 million in lost border trade in the two months following the launch of Operation 1027 in northern Shan State. Border trade accounts for 40% of exports and 21% of imports.  Myanmar Now, citing Commerce Ministry figures, found that exports to Thailand and China in the last 9 months of 2023 fell by $178 and $157 million, respectively. Residents of an improvised neighborhood gather to receive rice distributed by the World Food on the outskirts of Yangon, May 21, 2021. Over half the population in Myanmar live beneath the poverty line. (AFP Photo) Sector after sector have been hit hard.  In late November, the SAC stopped supplying fuel to industrial estates, calling on factory owners to negotiate their own energy purchases. In the key garment sector, 271 of 817 factories (33%) have shut down since the coup – due to shortages of foreign exchange to pay for raw materials, high energy prices, and the loss contracts and foreign investor unease with the human rights situation. Even Chinese-owned firms are closing. For those still employed, wages are stagnant and being eaten up by inflation, which remains high at 29%. Prices of staples, including rice, eggs, and cooking oil, have soared.  The junta refused to increase the minimum wage for workers, instead offering a 1,000-kyat (US$0.20) daily allowance. The current minimum wage was set in 2018. Myanmar Kyat notes are seen in a donation coffer at a Buddhist pagoda in Yangon, April 17, 2017. (Roberto Schmidt/AFP) The agriculture sector has been impacted by changing weather patterns and shortages of imported fertilizers and pesticides. While the cost of production has soared for farmers, in mid-September 2023, the junta imposed price ceilings on wholesale rice trade to stabilize prices for urban consumers. U.S.-imposed sanctions on the Myanma Investment and Commercial Bank and Myanmar Foreign Trade Bank, which were responsible for most of the U.S. dollar transactions, have crippled foreign trade. Singapore’s United Overseas Bank has been quietly closing Myanmar-linked accounts, further hampering their international transactions. In December 2023, three Myanmar nationals, including Kyaw Min Oo, the CEO of Sky Aviator, were…

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Counting underway in Taiwan’s pivotal presidential election

Voting has ended and counting is underway in Taiwan’s presidential election, a ballot that will shape its future relationship with China and stance on independence and stability. Polls opened at 8:00 a.m. at nearly 18,000 locations, from the island’s south to its capital Taipei and closed at 4 p.m with votes immediately being counted and reported to the election authorities soon after. The result for Saturday’s election should be clear by late evening when the losers concede and the winner gives a victory speech. At stake is the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait between the Chinese mainland and the self-governed island, claimed by Beijing as its own, but equally important are bread-and-butter issues. Key candidates in the presidential race are: Vice President Lai Ching-te of the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Hou Yu-ih of the Beijing-favored Kuomintang (KMT) and Ko Wen-je of Taiwan’s People’s Party (TPP). Former physician and mayor of Tainan, Lai, known for his support of Taiwan independence, aims to continue President Tsai’s policies of maintaining Taiwan’s de facto independence amidst heightened tensions with Beijing. Facing challenges like slow wage growth and high housing costs, Lai’s DPP, once an opposition to the KMT’s rule, now faces criticisms of being the establishment. “Today is a glorious day, great weather to vote. I encourage everyone to go vote, demonstrate the vigor of Taiwanese democracy,” said Lai after casting his vote in his hometown of Tainan. “Let Taiwan continue to move forward.” Hou from the KMT, a former police officer and mayor of New Taipei City, represents a “Taiwanese flavor” in politics, which his party believes could help attract a broader voter base beyond its traditional supporters; he advocates for dialogue with Beijing under the “1992 consensus” to reduce cross-strait tensions. However, the viability of this consensus is in question since Chinese President Xi Jinping’s 2019 interpretation aligned it with a stringent “one China principle,” echoing the increasingly restrictive model seen in Hong Kong. “I am very happy to see people voluntarily come out to vote early in the morning. This demonstrates a very important voting behavior of Taiwanese democracy in the electoral process – where democracy is used to select the most ideal president, vice president and legislators,” said Hou after voting in New Taipei City. “More importantly, no matter how chaotic the election process is, everyone must unite after the election.” Ko, a former surgeon turned politician, founded the TPP four years ago, focusing on domestic issues like energy and housing, after a surprising victory in Taipei’s mayoral race as an independent. While the TPP isn’t strong enough to dominate the legislature, Ko aims to position it as a parliamentary power broker, advocating for a coalition with the KMT and offering a “third choice” to voters, with policies aligning more closely with the KMT’s stance on China. Asked by journalists how he felt after casting his ballot in Taipei, Ko said:”Keep a normal mind, finish what one needs to finish every day, and plan for the next stage after each is completed.” An official of a polling station holds up a ballot slip, as vote counting for the presidential elections commences, at a high school in New Taipei City on January 13, 2024. (Sam Yeh / AFP) Just hours before the polls got underway China continued to assert its presence in the region. Taiwan’s defense ministry said eight People’s Liberation Army (PLA) aircraft and six PLA Navy vessels were detected around the island as of 6 a.m. local time, with one aircraft entering Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone. Some voters may be dissuaded from supporting independence-leaning candidates by China’s military threats, but the United States has pledged support for whichever government forms. A White House official said on Wednesday that U.S. President Joe Biden will send an “unofficial” delegation of former officials to Taiwan following the presidential elections. Aside from tensions with China, the Taiwan election is also predominantly determined by domestic concerns. In November 2023, Taiwan’s statistics bureau reported its GDP growth forecast as 1.42%, the lowest since 2008. Taiwan is grappling with soaring housing prices, ranked among the highest globally, while its wage levels were among the lowest compared to other developed economies, according to March figures. The outcome of the elections will also impact the security and economy of neighboring countries like Japan and South Korea. Taro Aso, the former Prime Minister of Japan, recently warned that China’s territorial claims on Taiwan could lead to a dire crisis for Japan, necessitating Tokyo’s intervention in the Taiwan Strait during any conflict to protect its citizens. Additionally, a Bloomberg Economics report released on Tuesday indicated that South Korea’s GDP would face the second-largest drop, after Taiwan, if a war were to break out between China and the democratic island. A woman casts her vote in the presidential election at a polling station in a temple in New Taipei City on Jan. 13, 2024. (Alastair Pike/AFP) Experts who spoke to Radio Free Asia said they believe maintaining the status quo is considered the safest approach regardless of the outcome of the elections.  Despite Beijing’s ongoing threats to use force to reclaim Taiwan, there’s little belief in an immediate invasion by China, they said, citing several factors at play: Taiwan’s determination to maintain its freedom and identity, the relations between Washington and Beijing, and the U.S.’s commitment to protecting Taiwan’s interests. Above all, the economic cost of a conflict could be devastating for the region and the world. For one, Taiwan is the leading global producer of the most advanced semiconductors.  Beyond the presidential and vice presidential elections, there are also 113 legislative seats up for grabs. More than 83% of the total population, or approximately 19.55 million voters, are eligible to cast their ballot. In 2020, DPP President Tsai Ing-wen and her running mate Lai won over 8.17 million votes, or 57.13% of the total, to defeat Han Kuo-yu and Chang San-cheng of the KMT. Additionally, a majority of seats was gained by the DPP in the…

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China helps world achieve record renewable energy growth

China’s “extraordinary” acceleration in renewable energy capacity propelled 2023 to witness the fastest global growth rate in over twenty years, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a new report on Thursday. The world’s annual additions to renewable electricity generation capacity soared by nearly 50%, reaching approximately 510 gigawatts (GW) – marking the 22nd consecutive year of setting new records in renewable capacity growth, the Paris-based IEA said in its Renewables 2023 report.  According to the report, China’s deployment of solar PV (photovoltaic) in 2023 increased by 116%, matching the global total of 2022, while its wind power installations increased by 66% compared to the previous year. The report predicted that the next five years will see the fastest growth yet, but warned the lack of financing for emerging and developing economies is a vital issue. The current expansion of renewable power has made the COP28 goal of tripling global capacity to at least 11,000 GW by 2030, which more than 130 governments agreed to during the climate change conference last month in Dubai. China, India, and Indonesia did not join the pledge due to its accompanying anti-coal stance and the more demanding goal of doubling the average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements to 4%. “Onshore wind and solar PV are cheaper today than new fossil fuel plants almost everywhere and cheaper than existing fossil fuel plants in most countries,” IEA’s executive director Fatih Birol said. “For me, the most important challenge for the international community is rapidly scaling up financing and deployment of renewables in most emerging and developing economies, many of which are being left behind in the new energy economy.” “Success in meeting the tripling goal will hinge on this.” This infographic shows renewable electricity capacity growth by country/region between 2005 and 2028. (IEA) Under existing policies and market conditions, global renewable power capacity is expected to grow to 7,300 GW by 2028, with renewables overtaking coal to become the largest source of global electricity generation by early 2025, according to IEA projection. The growth trajectory is about 2.5 times its current level, which is still short of the tripling goal by 2030. Asia-Pacific progress report The world’s second-biggest economy, China, has a renewable energy capacity to triple the previous five years’ increase of 2,000 GW in the next five years, making up 56% of the global increase, IEA said. From 2023 to 2028, China will add almost four times more renewable capacity than the European Union and five times more than the US, the second and third-largest growth market.  According to IEA’s forecast, the world’s renewables “powerhouse” is expected to reach its national 2030 target for wind and solar PV installations – 1,200 GW – this year, six years ahead of schedule. By 2028, almost half of China’s electricity generation will come from renewable energy sources. A solar farm operates next to Donggou village near Shijiazhuang city in northern China’s Hebei province, Nov. 10, 2023. (Ng Han Guan/AP) Apart from China, the rest of Asia will see renewable capacity grow by 430 GW by 2028, a 73% increase from 2022 levels, with India driving half of the regional growth and ASEAN adding 14%.  India is projected to add 205 GW by 2028, doubling its 2022 capacity, and is poised to become the third-largest global market for renewables.  The 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is expected to increase renewable capacity by a combined 63 GW by 2028, IEA said. Southeast Asia has the potential to offer one of the highest global renewable growth possibilities, the IEA said, but would require “more ambitious renewable energy targets and prompt implementation of long-term, transparent, and competitive support policies.” In major Southeast Asian economies such as Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand, regulations and policy support gaps hinder renewable energy growth and project development. The overcapacity of young, contract-bound fossil fuel power plants, particularly coal and gas, impedes the transition to renewable energy by financially disincentivizing utilities from investing in new renewable projects.  Vietnam’s rapid solar PV boom, with installations reaching 20 GW in 2019-2020, has led to challenges in integration, with a pressing need for more investment in transmission and distribution infrastructure. Last year, Vietnam and Indonesia signed into the Just Energy Transition Programme in a shift towards reassessing and potentially retiring older conventional plants, aided by international financial support to alleviate government budget pressures. Edited by Mike Firn and Taejun Kang.

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Chinese ‘monster’ ship patrols near Vietnam’s oil fields

Chinese coast guard ship 5901, dubbed “The Monster” for its size, has been near Vietnam’s oil exploration blocks at Vanguard Bank in the South China Sea since early December, Radio Free Asia has learned.  The CCG 5901 has “conducted an intrusive patrol of Vietnam’s oil and gas fields west of Vanguard Bank,” said Ray Powell, director of the U.S.-based SeaLight project, who was the first to spot the latest movement of the vessel in Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ). An EEZ gives a state exclusive access to the natural resources in the waters and in the seabed. Data obtained by RFA from tracking website MarineTraffic show the CCG 5901 (formerly known as Zhong Guoa Hai Jing 3901) has weaved an on-and-off pattern west of the Vanguard Bank, where Vietnam has some oil exploration projects, since at least Dec. 9, 2023. MarineTraffic uses AIS (automatic information system) signals that ships are obliged to transmit for safety reasons to track them. The Chinese ship has mostly been running “dark”, or not broadcasting AIS, since departing Sanya, Hainan, on Nov. 14, 2023, according to Powell. “This frequent practice violates the International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea, of which China is a signatory,” he added. Chinese coast guard ship 5901’s activities in Vietnam’s economic zone, Dec. 9, 2023- Jan. 7, 2024. (MarineTraffic) The last time the CCG 5901 turned on its AIS was on Jan. 7, 2024 at around 8:20 a.m. UTC. The ship was about 50 nautical miles (92.6km) southwest of Vanguard Bank. Several Vietnamese fishery patrol vessels were seen tailing the Chinese ship. The Chinese ship’s AIS was also activated on Dec. 9 and Dec. 29, 2023. The 12,000-ton CCG 5901 is double the size of a U.S. Navy Ticonderoga-class guided missile cruiser and is also bigger than an Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer. The coast guard ship, armed with heavy machine guns, also has a helicopter platform and a hangar large enough to accommodate larger rotary wing aircraft. Shared future Vanguard Bank, called Bai Tu Chinh in Vietnamese, is an important site of Vietnamese oil and gas development where Vietnam and some foreign partners carry out oil and gas exploration. It is also a known flashpoint between Vietnam and China – their law enforcement vessels confronted each other in July 2019 in one of the worst maritime standoffs in the South China Sea between them in recent years.   Chinese coast guard vessels maintain a frequent presence near the Vanguard Bank (Wan’an Tan in Chinese) – a submerged formation that lies entirely within Vietnam’s EEZ. China is among the six parties that hold claims over the South China Sea but Beijing’s claim is by far the largest, covering almost 90% of the sea. “The [incursion] is not new but it happens right after Vietnam and China agreed to build a ‘Community with a Shared Future’ during Xi Jinping’s visit to Hanoi in December,” said Le Hong Hiep, a senior fellow at Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. The concept of a ‘Community with a Shared Future’ is China’s vision for international relations in the Chinese leader, Xi’s Jinping era. “That shows that essentially the Vietnam-China bilateral relations have not changed and it remains very difficult for the two countries to share a future should China continue pursuing its current claim over nearly-entire South China Sea,” Hiep told RFA. Another Vietnamese political analyst, Nguyen Khac Giang, said that the Chinese coast guard patrols “may be sending a message to not only Vietnam but the broader international community about China’s sovereignty in the South China Sea.” “On the other hand, China wants to maintain its pressure to interrupt Vietnam’s oil and activities in the area, as well as to push Hanoi to agree to a joint exploration plan with China in the same manner as what it achieved with the Philippines under the Duterte administration,” said Giang. In 2018, Manila and Beijing signed an agreement to explore oil and gas reserves in the South China Sea but the Philippines declared an end to it in June 2022, after President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. took power. The two countries, however, had agreed ‘to resume discussions on oil and gas development” after Marcos visited Beijing in December. Edited by Mike Firn and Elaine Chan.

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Taiwan accuses China of gray zone tactics by flying balloons

After Taiwan spotted Chinese balloons flying over its main island, the Ministry of National Defense (MND) in Taipei accused Beijing of conducting ‘cognitive warfare’ against Taiwanese people just days before the general election.  Two more Chinese balloons were detected crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait, which serves as the de facto boundary between Taiwan and China, on Friday. One of them flew over the Taiwan island itself, the ministry said Saturday in a strongly-worded statement. On Jan. 13, the Taiwanese go to polls in presidential and parliamentary elections seen as vital for cross-strait relations. The MND only began disclosing China’s balloon incursions in December 2023 and has so far reported the sighting of 19 balloons, including six that entered the island’s airspace. An airspace is a portion of the atmosphere above a country’s territory, to which it holds exclusive sovereignty. Experts say the balloons are likely meteorological as most of them fly at a relatively low altitude. The MND said, according to their analyses, “the main purpose of the recently detected airborne balloons is to conduct gray zone activities, attempting to use cognitive warfare to affect the morale of Taiwanese people.” Cognitive warfare, often known as psychological warfare, refers to activities designed to control the mental state and behavior of other people. The drifting paths of the balloons “posed a serious threat to the safety of many international flights,” the ministry said in a statement sent to reporters. It added that the Taiwanese military is keeping a close watch and would notify civil aviation authorities about any new developments, while “condemning the Chinese Communist Party for its disregard of aviation safety and for the safety of passengers on both sides of the Taiwan Strait and internationally.” ‘Hyping China’s threat’? Wendell Minnick, a Taipei-based veteran Chinese military watcher, said the balloons could be an air traffic problem for airliners at 30,000 ft (9.1km). “Sucking one of these into the engine would result in a crash,” Minnick told Radio Free Asia.  “But these weather balloons are not unusual; they come from two different weather balloon stations in China,” said Minnick. “Now that Taiwan’s MND has begun mentioning them, they have to keep doing so.” Chinese media outlets, meanwhile, said they were “harmless weather balloons” and accused the Taiwanese government of “hyping the mainland threat.” “It’s evident that weather balloons pose no threat to anyone, however, media outlets in the U.S. and Taiwan island use them to perpetuate the ‘mainland threat theory’,” said the state-run Global Times in an editorial on Thursday.  The Global Times mentioned the incident that happened in early 2023 when U.S. authorities accused China of flying a spy balloon over the continental U.S. In the so-called “2023 Chinese balloon incident,” the Pentagon sent a stealth F-22 Raptor fighter jet to shoot down what it said was a Chinese high-altitude surveillance platform in the Atlantic Ocean on Feb. 4. China said it was a weather balloon that was blown off course, but the incident led to further tensions in the already problematic China-U.S. relations. Edited by Taejun Kang.

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India repatriates 151 junta soldiers who fled fighting

India has repatriated 151 junta soldiers who entered the country last week to escape ethnic Rakhine fighters during clashes across the border in western Myanmar’s Chin state, according to residents and media reports. On Dec. 27, Arakan Army, or AA, troops attacked a military base in Chin state’s Paletwa township, prompting the junta soldiers to flee across the border into India’s Mizoram state. A resident of Mizoram told RFA Burmese that the 151 troops surrendered to a unit of India’s Assam Rifles in Lawngtlai district’s Tuisentlang village two days later. “From there, they were brought to [Mizoram’s capital] Aizawl via Lunglei [township],” said the resident, who spoke on condition of anonymity citing security concerns. “I saw a Myanmar plane fly by [on Jan. 2] that appears to have taken the soldiers back. I saw it twice and I believe it made two trips because there were over 150 [soldiers].” Indian media reported that local police sent the soldiers – nine of whom were injured – to Aizawl, where they would be interrogated by Indian officials before being handed over to Myanmar’s junta. Additional reports said that the troops would be sent back to Myanmar’s Rakhine state capital Sittwe after a Myanmar Airlines aircraft landed at Mizoram’s Lengpui Airport. Attempts by RFA to reach Aung Cho, the junta’s spokesman and secretary of Rakhine state, for comment on the status of the troops went unanswered Wednesday. Some of the Myanmar junta soldiers who fled to Mizoram state in India are seen Dec. 29, 2023. (Citizen journalist) The 151 junta soldiers are the latest group of military troops to flee clashes with the AA from Chin state into India. More than 40 soldiers who entered the country after the AA occupied Chin state’s Rihkhawdar township were returned to Myanmar on Nov. 14. Another group of more than 40 soldiers and their family members who fled to India during fighting with anti-junta forces in Sagaing region’s Tamu township were also recently repatriated to Myanmar, according to residents. Translated by Htin Aung Kyaw. Edited by Joshua Lipes and Malcolm Foster.

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‘End of junta is near’ amid mass surrenders: Myanmar’s shadow govt

The end of the junta is near amid mass desertions and surrenders of junta troops, said Myanmar’s shadow government on Monday.  “We have seen the mass deserting and surrender of the military council soldiers unprecedented in military history … Looking at these, it can be said that the end of the [junta] military council is near,” said Duwa Lashi La, the acting president of the National Unity Government (NUG) during his new year’s address.  “Junta troops are facing the situation where its soldiers are either surrendering or being captured in battles on a daily basis,” said the interim leader, adding that 550 military junta soldiers have surrendered during Operation 1027 by the anti-junta Three Northern Brotherhood Alliance. He also cited a statement by the Karen National Union, or KNU, as saying that more than 18,000 military council soldiers have been killed in the KNU-controlled areas since the coup.  The acting president’s speech came a few days after an intense battle between the anti-junta Arakan Army (AA) and junta troops in Paletwa township, Chin state, on Dec. 29, 2023. As a result of the battle, more than 80 military junta soldiers crossed the border and fled to India’s Mizoram state, according to Paletwa residents. India-based the United News of India (UNI) reported on the same day that 83 junta soldiers entered Tuisenlang village on the Mizoram-Myanmar border.  UNI stated that the junta soldiers would be sent back to Myanmar, noting that there were four instances in November and December last year when junta soldiers escaped to the Indian state of Mizoram. Junta troops who fled to India’s Mizoram state on Dec. 29, 2023 (Citizen Journalist) A Paletwa resident who wished to remain anonymous for fear of reprisals told Radio Free Asia last Thursday that the military council troops had fled to the Mizoram side, fully armed. The resident added, however, he could not confirm whether the junta soldiers were repatriated to Myanmar.  As of Tuesday, the junta’s military council has not commented on the soldiers who fled to India.  Aung Cho, junta council’s spokesman for Chin state and Chin state’s secretary, by phone, has also not responded to RFA’s inquiries.  Translated by RFA Burmese. Edited by Taejun Kang and Elaine Chan.

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Women and children suffer amid Myanmar’s civil war

As Myanmar’s civil war approaches its third year, intensified fighting across the country this year between ruling junta forces and resistance fighters has destroyed villages and parts of towns, displacing hundreds of thousands of civilians, most of whom are women and children.  The number of internally displaced persons, or IDPs, reached more than 1 million this year, nearly 11,000 of whom fled to neighboring India and Thailand, according to a United Nations report. “The lives and properties of our people were destroyed,” said Zin Mar Aung, foreign affairs minister under the parallel National Unity Government, noting the junta’s burning of villages, air strikes targeting civilians and mass killings. At least 330 women died this year as a result of attacks by junta forces amid the escalation of armed conflict, said Tin Tin Nyo, general secretary of the Women’s League of Burma. “The number of civilian casualties increased due to artillery attacks and air strikes,” she told Radio Free Asia. “Most of the victims were women, children and the elderly.” A woman killed by an artillery shell fired by Myanmar junta forces is carried by rescuers in Noe Koe village in Kayah state’s Loikaw township, Aug. 31, 2023. (Karenni Human Rights Group) Since the end of October, the number of internally displaced persons also increased, with most being women and children, Tin Tin Nyo said.  “After a country falls under the rule of dictators, it loses the rule of law and justice,” she said, adding that her organization has seen an uptick in gender-based violence, abuse by husbands amid economic decline, and a growing number sex workers.  “These are both visible and invisible challenges,” said the women’s rights advocate. “2023 was full of severe hardship for women.” ‘Lost hope’ Yu Yu, a woman who fled amid armed clashes in eastern Myanmar’s Kayah state, said she has suffered trauma as an IDP. “We are surviving on the food of donors as we have no jobs,” she said. “We have lost hope.” Women who left their jobs to join the Civil Disobedience Movement, or CDM, to resist the military rule following the February 2021 coup say they’ve had difficulties making ends meet while caring for children or aging parents. “My father is 80 years old, my mother is also elderly, [and] they are not in good health,” said Khin May, who used to teach at a private high school in Bago region but quit to join the CDM. “It is very difficult for us while I have no job,” she said, adding that she believes the resistance forces will triumph over the junta in 2024.  Hla Win, who lost her leg to a landmine, walks with crutches at a camp for internally displaced people near Myanmar’s Pekon township, July 29, 2023. (AFP) Children have suffered amid the civil war as well, and more than 560 have died since the military seized control from the civilian-led government in the February 2021 coup, according to Aung Myo Min, the NUG’s human rights minister. Since Dec. 21, four children between the ages of 8 and 11 were killed in Rakhine state’s Mrauk-U township, a 9-year-old child was killed in Namtu in northern Shan state, and a seven-year-old girl died in an attack by junta troops in Sagaing region’s Paungbyin township, according to figures compiled by RFA. “This is a war crime,” said Aung Myo Min. “It’s everyone’s responsibility to protect children at all times, but we have seen almost every day that killings are taking place where there are children as they sleep alongside their families, as well as the deaths of pregnant mothers.” Utter despair The death of children are often directly linked to women dying mid the fighting, said Thandar, head of gender equality and women’s development under the NUG’s Ministry of Women, Youth and Children’s Affairs. “For example, in Sagaing and Magway regions, grown men are performing revolutionary duties, while the women, the elderly and vulnerable groups like children are fleeing together,” she said. “So, if women are hit, children are hit, too.” According to Shan Human Rights Foundation based in Thailand, 28 children were killed due to the junta’s attacks from Oct. 27 to Dec. 27 during the the Three Brotherhood Alliance rebel offensive that has put junta forces back on their heels. People flee a village after renewed fighting between Myanmar’s military and the Arakan Army in Pauktaw township in western Rakhine state, Nov. 19, 2023. (AFP) Air- and land-based artillery strikes are the most common cause of death, and children are among the mass casualties when such attacks occur, death counts indicate. On Apr. 19, nearly 20 children under the age of 18 were killed in an air strike during a gathering in Pa Zi Gyi village in Sagaing region’s Kanbalu township. Eleven others died during an attack on Mon Laik IDP camp near the headquarters of an ethnic army in the town of Laiza in Kachin state on Oct. 9.  And eight more children were killed during an aerial bombardment of Vuilu village in Matupi township in western Myanmar’s Chin state on Nov. 15. Roi Ji, 40, told RFA that she was in utter despair because all five of her children died in the attack on the Mon Laik IDP camp. “I can’t think about anything anymore,” she said. “I’m in a state of derangement.” Precarious futures Children who live in war-torn areas no longer have access to schools or adequate nutrition, and face bleak futures. Nwe Nwe Moe, a former teacher at Shwebo Technical College who joined the Civil Disobedience Movement and has since become a member of Yinmarbin-Salingyi multi-village strike committee in Sagaing region, said she dare not think about the future of the children living among the chaos of war. “I’m concerned about whether the children will be able to develop into capable young people because there is no safety, no access to study, health care, or nutritious food for them,” she said. “I have a sinking feeling about those who are in life-threatening and emotionally insecure situations.” People…

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Ethnic armies’ ‘Operation 1027’ put Myanmar junta on defensive in 2023

Myanmar’s ethnic armed organizations and other resistance groups made significant gains against the country’s military dictatorship in 2023. “Operation 1027,” launched by the Three Brotherhood Alliance in northern Shan state in October, was a surprising success. Along with the efforts of local People’s Defense Forces, or PDFs, and ethnic armed groups in Kayah, Kayin, Chin, and Kachin states, anti-junta forces put the ruling military junta on the defensive.  The junta lost hundreds of outposts as rebel forces captured towns and several key border crossings in November and December, suggesting the tide could be turning in the country’s civil war that erupted after the military overthrew a democratically elected government in a February 2021 coup d’etat “The military council suffered great losses in 2023, while the people’s revolution has stepped forward gradually,” said Kyaw Zaw, spokesman for the shadow National Unity Government, or NUG. “It is the victory of the people.” The number of junta troops surrendering to resistance forces increased after Operation 1027 began.    People’s Liberation Army forces from China fight Myanmar junta army troops near northwestern Myanmar’s Sagaing region, Nov. 23, 2023. (Reuters)     On Oct. 30, more than 40 members of Light Infantry Battalion 143 in Kunlong township, northern Shan state, surrendered to the Three Brotherhood Alliance, which includes the Arakan Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army. A day later, the military junta’s 15 local militia members laid down their weapons and turned over their arms and ammunition. Reports of junta units submitting to resistance forces have continued over the last two months. “Many have contacted us to surrender,” said Maung Maung Swe, spokesman for the NUG’s Ministry of Defense. “If we can have more collaborative fights, the military council will soon topple.” Junta troops have lost motivation and confidence in their fighting ability because of Operation 1027, political observer Than Soe Naing said.  “They have realized they should not sacrifice their lives for corrupt senior military officials,” he said. “They will surrender if they are defeated, and will flee from the military if they have an opportunity. It’s become a common idea among soldiers.” We were unable to reach junta spokesman Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun for comment about junta forces surrendering.  Local administrations Ethnic armies and officials from the NUG, which is mostly made up of former civilian government leaders, have been setting up interim administrative bodies in areas they control.  In other areas of the country, resistance leaders have started to think about what Myanmar would look like if the junta was defeated.  In Sagaing region, a hotbed of resistance to military rule that saw a resurgence of anti-junta protests in 2023, more than 170 resistance forces held a forum on May 30-31 to discuss the armed revolt and local administration.   Ta’ang National Liberation Army troops prepare to launch a drone during their attack on a Myanmar junta military camp in Namhsan township in Myanmar’s northern Shan state, Dec. 12, 2023. (AFP)      “The forum was held to continue the revolution collaboratively as it has been for more than two years,” Sagaing Forum spokesman Chaw Su San said. “It also aims to forge more cooperation among anti-military dictatorship forces in Sagaing region.” On Nov. 17, democratically elected representatives from Sagaing, Tanintharyi and Magway regions convened regional parliaments and approved a preparatory bill for an interim constitution, supported by the dissolved National League for Democracy. But revolutionary groups objected to the measure, saying they wanted to ensure equal rights for negotiation, participation and collective leadership by all resistance groups, said Soe Win Swe, another Sagaing Forum spokesman. “We concluded that the recent approval was intended just for the interest of a single organization, so we objected to it,” he said. “The Sagaing Forum firmly stands on collective leadership.” Draft constitutions In western Myanmar, armed ethnic Chin groups have also gone on the offensive since October. “Our resistance forces could capture only four or five military outposts in the past two and half years,” said Salai Timmy, the secretary of the Chinland Joint Defense Committee.  “However, after launching Operation 1027, we controlled about nine outposts,” he said. “Meanwhile, the military troops abandoned about 12 camps.” The Chin National Front, an ethnic Chin political organization whose armed wing has battled junta forces, along with local administration organizations, established Chinland — Chin state’s new name – following the approval of a new constitution on Dec. 6. The Chinland Council, the new governing body, will form a legislature, an administration and a judiciary branch within 60 days, said Salai Htet Ni, first joint secretary of the council.    Members of the Myanmar Army’s Light Infantry Battalion 129 surrender to the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army in northern Shan state, Nov. 12, 2023. (Three Brotherhood Alliance)      In eastern Myanmar, ethnic Karenni forces launched Operation 11.11 — their own version of Operation 1027 — in November, seizing at least nine military outposts in Kayah state, said Khun Bedu, chairman of the Karenni Nationalities Defense Force. “The junta soldiers abandoned their camps,” he said. “We are moving on to capture more outposts.” Resistance forces in Kayah state set up an Interim Executive Council, or IEC, on June 12, putting in place local administrations at village, village-tract and township levels, IEC General Secretary Khu Plue Reh said. NUG is working with the IEC without intervening in administrative procedures, he said. “We also work together to provide public services especially in education, health care and humanitarian assistance,” he said. With its own public support, the establishment of the IEC could be an initial step toward the establishment of a federal union in Myanmar — a long-running goal of ethnic political organizations and their respective ethnic armies. In adjacent Kayin state, the Karen National Union, or KNU, battled junta troops, while providing training to local PDFs.  The KNU’s Karen National Liberation Army and PDF forces took control of Mon township in early December — the first town captured in Bago region. Resistance forces…

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