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China, Russia say North Korea launch provoked by US military drills
A U.S.-led push to condemn North Korea’s launch of a missile across Japan was blocked by China and Russia in the U.N. Security Council on Wednesday, with the veto powers saying Pyongyang was provoked by recent U.S. military drills. The meeting of the 15-member council was called by the United States after North Korea fired a missile across Japanese territory into the Pacific Ocean on Tuesday, violating council resolutions banning Pyongyang from such tests. The test missile launch was condemned by the 12 other members of the U.N. Security Council – Albania, France, Ireland, Norway, the United Kingdom, India, the United Arab Emirates, Ghana, Mexico, Kenya, Brazil and Gabon. Each called for a return to “dialogue” between countries in the region. But Russia and China – who had opposed a public council meeting and in May vetoed a resolution to impose new sanctions against North Korea for its new program of test launches – both said the United States was also at fault. Russia’s deputy representative to the United Nations, Anna Evstigneeva, defended the test launches, and blamed the context of what she termed America’s “unilateral security doctrine in the Asia-Pacific region.” She noted that the United States, Japan and South Korea last month carried out military exercises in the Sea of Japan using a nuclear aircraft carrier that she said focused training on hitting key targets in North Korea. “It is obvious that the missile launches by Pyongyang are a consequence of a short-sighted confrontational military activity surrounding this country conducted by the United States, which hurts their own partners in the region and also hurts the situation in Northeast Asia as a whole,” Evstigneeva said. China’s deputy permanent representative to the United Nations, Geng Shuang, mirrored the comments, also blaming U.S.-led drills for Pyongyang’s launch. “We have also noticed the multiple joint military exercises held by the U.S. and other countries recently in the region,” Geng told the Security Council. “A brief examination will reveal that [North Korea’s] launch activities took place either before or after such military activities and did not exist in isolation.” Pedestrians walk under a large video screen showing images of North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un during a news update in Tokyo on Oct. 4, 2022, after North Korea launched a missile prompting an evacuation alert when it flew over northeastern Japan. Credit: AFP ‘Blaming others’ However, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, speaking for a second time after first making a case to condemn North Korea’s actions, said the explanation from China and Russia made little sense. “As we expected, instead of putting the blame where the blame lies,” Thomas-Greenfield said, “Russia and China want to blame others for their actions.” She said that U.S.-led drills with South Korea and Japan were carried out “responsibly and consistent with international law” and that there was “no equivalency” with the “unlawful, reckless” missile launches by North Korea. Japan’s permanent representative to the United Nations, Ishikane Kimihiro, who is not currently sitting on the council but was invited to address it, called on the council to enforce “unanimously adopted” resolutions banning such tests. “This council should be mindful that it is being tested and that its credibility is at stake. Silence is not an option,” Ishikane said. “North Korea has violated multiple Security Council resolutions and this council should act and provide an outcome that restores its credibility and fulfills its responsibilities.” The North Korean missile test was the first to pass through Japanese territory in five years, and flew 2,800 miles at 17 times the speed of sound. The United States and South Korea conducted their own missile tests in response earlier on Wednesday, with a malfunctioning South Korean missile crashing into an air force base on the outskirts of the coastal city of Gangneung.
Targeted sanctions on arms sales key to ending violence in Myanmar: observers
Myanmar’s junta is using weapons purchased from abroad to commit “war crimes” against its people and must be targeted with new sanctions to end violence in the country, former military officers and political observers said Monday. On Friday, the United Nations human rights office in Geneva said in a report that countries should do more to prevent money and arms from reaching the junta, which rules through terror and repression. The office called for further isolation of the military regime, which it said had failed to govern effectively, suggesting U.N. members impose bans on arms sales and more narrowly defined sanctions to prevent its business network from gaining access to foreign currency. While the U.S., Britain, Canada and the EU have imposed sanctions on Myanmar since the military seized power in a February 2021 coup, several countries have continued to supply the junta with arms — most notably Russia, China and Serbia. Speaking to RFA Burmese on Monday, former army Capt. Lin Htet Aung, who is now a member of the anti-junta Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM), said sanctions are key to cutting the junta off from the modern weapons and raw materials it needs to maintain its hold on power. “The military’s domestic production capacity cannot provide all the weapons it needs for the army,” he said. “Missiles and heavy weapons and their accessories, as well as ammunition used by its armed forces, are all imported from abroad. All these things, as well as raw materials, have to be purchased from foreign nations.” The CDM captain said the military will continue to commit human rights violations, including bombing attacks on towns and villages, if the international community fails to level effective sanctions. On June 18 last year, the U.N. General Assembly approved a proposal to ban arms exports to the Myanmar military. One hundred and nineteen countries voted in favor of the resolution, while 36 countries — including China, India and Russia — abstained. Russian ally Belarus voted against it. Myanmar junta chief Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing and his team inspect weapons and equipment at the Higher Military Command School in Novosibirsk, Russia, July 16, 2022. Credit: Myanmar military Ineffective sanctions Observers told RFA that the junta continues to obtain military equipment and technology via large domestic and international arms brokering companies. Hla Kyaw Zo, a Myanmar political analyst based in China, said sanctioning these companies would have a significant effect on ending the junta’s domination. “Western countries consider their own interests and big arms companies are more or less connected with the Western world, so this issue is difficult to discuss,” he said. “If the West blocks [these sales] effectively, it’ll be good, but I don’t think they will press on the issue.” According to a list compiled by NGO Justice For Myanmar, there are more than 150 companies selling arms to Myanmar’s military, 135 of which are based in Myanmar, Russia and Singapore. Yadana Maung, the group’s spokeswoman, told RFA that many companies have been able to evade Western sanctions, meaning financial and military support continues to flow to the junta. Thein Tun Oo, executive director of the Thayningha Strategic Studies Institute, which is made up of former military officers, said using human rights to justify sanctions against Myanmar is “weakening the defense of the country.” “All we have heard so far is the noise they’re making about human rights,” he said. “In reality, what we understand is that they are using that premise to allow those who are pulling the strings to obtain more power.” He said the junta will continue to purchase arms from its allies despite attempts to block them. Propping up a brutal regime In February, former U.S. Rep. Tom Andrews, who serves as U.N. special rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar, said in a report to the U.N. Security Council that countries should stop selling arms to the junta, citing a brutal crackdown on civilians since the coup. The report called out permanent Security Council members China and Russia, as well as India, Belarus, Ukraine, Israel, Serbia, Pakistan and South Korea, for selling the weapons, which Andrews said are almost certainly being used by the military to kill innocent people. However, analysts say it is unlikely that the sale of arms to the junta can be cut off completely as Russia and China, which are its main suppliers, wield veto power at the Security Council. In the meantime, junta chief Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing has visited Russia three times in the 19 months since the coup. During his last trip, earlier this month, he signed an agreement with Russian government officials to build a nuclear reactor factory in Myanmar. Translated by Khin Maung Nyane. Written in English by Joshua Lipes.
China steps up cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns targeting Taiwan
Cyber attacks and a Chinese disinformation campaign targeting the democratic island of Taiwan throw the spotlight on Beijing’s use of hybrid warfare in the wake of Pelosi’s visit, a Taiwanese military official said on Monday. Maj. Gen. Chen Yu-lin, deputy director of the Political and War Bureau of Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense told journalists on Monday that the current wave of “cognitive operations” started before the military exercises were announced. Chen said the hybrid warfare campaign sought to create an atmosphere suggesting China might be invading Taiwan, to attack the public image of the government, and to disrupt civilian and military morale. “The CCP’s military exercises began on Aug. 4, when the number of cognitive warfare-related posts targeting Taiwan skyrocketed to 73, peaking at 87 on Aug. 5,” Chen. “[But] official media posted a total of 87 messages on Aug. 2, before the military exercises started.” “We immediately issued a press release to … inform the public that these messages weren’t true,” Chen said, citing one message claiming the PLA had shot down a Taiwanese fighter jet accompanying Pelosi’s plane. “We immediately clarified that this was fake news,” Chen said. Hybrid warfare denotes a combination of conventional military action on the ground and hacks or disinformation campaigns designed to attack public morale and sow confusion. Chen Hui-min, editor-in-chief of the Taiwan FactCheck Center, said his organization had detected a 30-40 increase in fake reports online since Pelosi’s visit. “The biggest difference [from the past] is that it seems to be spreading from English-language Twitter,” Chen told RFA. “There is also a lot of fake information on China’s [social media platform] Weibo, some of which has made its way onto social media platforms used in Taiwan, including LINE and Facebook.” “It used to be pretty rare to see such posts in the English Twittersphere,” Chen said. “Accounts that once focused on the war in Ukraine suddenly started spreading fake news about Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.” National Taiwan University was hacked, with the words “there is only one China in this world” appearing on its official website. Meanwhile, the National Palace Museum issued a statement denying online rumors that the government was preparing to send tens of thousands of rare artifacts overseas for safekeeping. Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying tweeted on Sunday that the maps showed Shandong dumpling restaurants and Shanxi noodle restaurants in Taipei, saying the presence of the restaurants means that Taiwan has always been a part of China. “Palates don’t cheat,” Hua wrote, adding: “The long lost child will eventually return home.” Outdated photos According to Chen Hui-min, some of the images used by the disinformation posts used military images from two years earlier to suggest the PLA had fired rockets across the island. “It’s incorrect to say that the CCP’s long-range rockets have flown across Taiwan. Even the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and official Chinese media have reported that they landed in the Taiwan Strait, stopping short of crossing Taiwan,” Chen said. “Another annotated photo said the Chinese army was assembling on the coast, using edited photos of North Korean military exercises that took place in 2017.” Another report cited China’s state broadcaster CCTV as saying that China was expelling Taiwanese nationals before Aug. 8, also untrue. Last week, several convenience store branches and government facilities across Taiwan saw their digital signage hacked with messages slandering visiting U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi during her recent visit to Taiwan, which sparked days of military exercises and missile launches near Taiwan by China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA). As Pelosi visited Taiwan and met with president Tsai Ing-wen on Aug. 3, messages started popping up on digital signage in 7-Eleven convenience stores across the country that read: “Warmonger Pelosi, get out of Taiwan!” Digital signage at a railway station in the southern port city of Kaohsiung and at a government office in Nantou county also displayed a message calling Pelosi “an old witch.” Investigators said the attacks originated from an unknown IP address, the island’s Central News Agency (CNA) reported at the time. The hacks came after the official website of Tsai’s Presidential Office was taken down for around 20 minutes by a cyberattack, after which full service was restored, CNA reported. Mainland Chinese website Baidu joined in the cognitive warfare, releasing maps of Taiwan for the first time, which went viral after social media users noticed that many streets in Taiwan’s cities are named for cities in mainland China. Chinese officials and pro-CCP commentators have launched a global media offensive around Pelosi’s Taiwan visit, claiming that the island, which has never been ruled by the CCP nor formed part of the 72-year-old People’s Republic of China, is an “inseparable” part of Chinese territory. CCP leader Xi Jinping has repeatedly said that Taiwan must be “unified” with China, and refused to rule out the use of military force to annex the island. But Taiwan president Tsai Ing-wen, who was re-elected in a 2020 landslide after vowing to stand up to China on the issue, has said that Taiwan’s 23 million population have no wish to give up their sovereignty, a view that is borne out by repeated opinion polls. Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying tweeted on Sunday that the maps showed Shandong dumpling restaurants and Shanxi noodle restaurants in Taipei, saying the presence of the restaurants means that Taiwan has always been a part of China. “Palates don’t cheat,” Hua wrote, adding: “The long lost child will eventually return home.” Hua Chunying Twitter users responded with parodies of the tweet, citing the ubiquitous presence of American fast-food chains KFC and McDonalds in China, and claiming China as “part of Kentucky.” Taiwan cookery expert Clarissa Wei said many of the restaurants had already altered their dishes to suit the local palate, however, drawing parallels with the evolution of Chinese dishes in the United States to suit local tastes. Feminist writer Shangguan Luan said China’s CCP-supporting Little Pinks could be forgiven for their ignorance, given that they…
China isn’t yet ready to use military force against Taiwan
At 10.00 p.m. local time on Aug. 2, 2022, U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi arrived in Taipei, the highest-ranking U.S. politician to do so for 25 years. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) angrily announced via its Xinhua news agency that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) would conduct military areas in six areas encircling Taiwan, between 12 noon on Aug. 4 to 12 noon on Aug. 7, including live-fire exercises. The PLA’s Eastern Theater Command then announced joint air and sea exercises in the Taiwan Strait and in the waters around the island, including the firing of long-range ammunition. The exercises are widely seen as a shock tactic and deterrent sparked by Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, and China styles them as a warning to supporters of “Taiwan independence.” The six areas encircled Taiwan on all sides, bringing PLA forces closer to the island than previous exercises during the 1995-1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, and even encroaching on Taiwan’s territorial waters in some places. On the morning of Aug. 3, Taiwan’s ministry of defense held an online news conference, at which it strongly condemned the exercises as a de facto air and sea blockade, a serious violation of the island’s territorial waters and as inimical to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait and in violation of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, and endangering international shipping lanes and regional security. Their initial analysis was that the CCP was using this show of force to intimidate Taiwan, and as a form of psychological warfare against its people. So the ministry announced it would prepare for war without seeking or avoiding it, and vowed not to escalate the conflict. It said the island’s military would step up vigilance and counter any aggression. Currently, Taiwan’s combat readiness training is continuing as it had been before, and there have been no recalls of officers or soldiers on leave. The United States remains on high alert, and is expected to respond to China’s large-scale military exercises and economic coercion against Taiwan. John Kirby, the National Security Council’s strategic communications coordinator, said in a regular White House media briefing on Aug. 2 that Beijing has no reason to turn this visit, which is in line with long-term U.S. policy, into some kind of crisis, or use it as an excuse for increased aggression and military activity targeting Taiwan. Sailors direct an EA-18G Growler attached to the Shadowhawks of Electronic Attack Squadron (VAQ) 141 on the flight deck of the U.S. Navy’s only forward-deployed aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) in the Philippine Sea, Aug. 2, 2022. Credit: U.S. Navy Missiles Kirby said the U.S. side expects China to continue to respond for a longer period of time [than in 1996], but gave no further details, adding that the U.S. doesn’t want a crisis and will seek to manage the situation and not fall into conflict with China. In other words, the United States has achieved its goal [with Pelosi’s visit], meaning that there is no need to irritate Beijing further, and that the situation, while tense, is generally under control. The exercises began after Pelosi left Taiwan, so as to avoid direct confrontation with the U.S. military; a kind of deterrent after the fact to save Beijing from admitting defeat, and to prevent other countries from following suit. Without it, China’s “one-China” principle [by which it claims Taiwan as its territory], could have faced unprecedented levels of challenge from the international community, opening the door for Taiwan to increase its presence on the world stage. It was a face-saving exercise by the CCP aimed at mollifying rising nationalism at home. The current situation is different from the 1995-1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, which lasted for during months, with seven waves of military exercises by the PLA, and amid plans to capture Taiwan’s outer islands of Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu. The current exercise encircles Taiwan on four sides … and is more obviously aimed at the United States, particularly the conventional missile test launches in the waters east of Taiwan. This arrangement helps prevent the U.S. military from intervening in the Taiwan Strait. The most eye-catching part of this exercise, and likely its biggest deterrent effect, lies in the test launch of conventional missiles. Some missiles were fired east of Taiwan, and passed through Japan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), before landing in Japanese economic exclusion zone. Will this trigger a chain reaction in security cooperation between the U.S. and Japan? This will be the focus of attention in the next few days. All six of the PLA’s military training zones fall within Taiwan’s ADIZ, while the areas off Keelung and Kaohsiung overlap with Taiwan’s territorial waters, meaning parts of them are less than 12 nautical miles (about 22 kilometers) off the Taiwanese coast, in a direct challenge to Taiwan’s sovereignty and in line with what the United Nations terms “national aggression.” Research indicates the PLA’s naval and air forces will conduct long-range live ammunition shooting outside the Taiwan defense zone and will not risk approaching Taiwan’s territorial waters. The incursion into Taiwan’s territorial waters seems intended as a psychological deterrent to Taiwan. It’s not out of the question that small amounts of ordinance could find their way into Taiwan’s territorial waters, and if they do, this could present new issues for Taiwan around how to respond. With the exercises taking place in Taiwan’s ADIZ, the median line of the Taiwan Strait disappears. The appearance of part of the exercise area in Taiwan’s territorial waters compresses the depth of Taiwan’s defense to its minimum range, posing fresh challenges to the island’s military. Taiwan Air Force Mirage fighter jets taxi on a runway at an airbase in Hsinchu, Taiwan, Friday, Aug. 5, 2022. China says it summoned European diplomats in the country to protest statements issued by the Group of Seven nations and the European Union criticizing threatening Chinese military exercises surrounding Taiwan. Credit: AP PLA thinking and capabilities In terms of sea and air…
China fires ballistic missiles into the sea off Taiwan
Unprecedented Chinese live-fire maritime drills got underway on Thursday with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) launching ballistic missiles into the waters around Taiwan, the Taiwanese defense ministry said. The Chinese military “launched a number of Dongfeng ballistic missiles into the waters surrounding northeastern and southwestern Taiwan at about 13:56 p.m.,” the ministry said without specifying the range. Matsu, Wuqiu, Dongyin and some other outlying islands have been put on heightened alert after the PLA fired long-range rockets in the surrounding areas, the ministry added. Before the launch, the PLA threatened to fire missiles over Taiwan and enter the island’s territorial waters for the first time, in a scenario that analysts describe as ‘The Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis.’ Chinese military helicopters fly past Pingtan island, one of mainland China’s closest point from Taiwan, on August 4, 2022, ahead of massive military drills off Taiwan. CREDIT: AFP China’s ‘irrational action’ Chinese international state broadcaster CGTN said “military exercises and training activities including live-fire drills around Taiwan island” have begun. The PLA “conducted long-range live-fire shooting training in the Taiwan Straits on Thursday at around 1:00 p.m. and carried out precision strikes on specific areas in the eastern part of the Taiwan Straits,” CGTN added. The state-supported Global Times said the Chinese military “conducted long-range artillery live-fire shooting drills in the Taiwan Straits, striking targets on the eastern side of the Straits and achieving the expected outcome.” Taiwan’s defense ministry said it has activated relevant defense systems, and strengthened combat readiness. “The Ministry of National Defense condemned this irrational action that undermines regional peace,” it said in a statement. The maritime drills at six locations around Taiwan, that started on Thursday and last until Sunday, are set to be larger in scale than those in 1996 during the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis, and also unprecedented in many ways. For the first time, Chinese troops are expected to enter the 12-nautical-mile (22 kilometers) waters around Taiwan which, according to the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea, serve as the island’s sovereign territorial waters. Conventional missiles are expected to be test-launched from naval vessels that are sailing to the east of Taiwan and from the mainland, according to the PLA Eastern Theater Command. Chinese analysts, quoted by state media, said the missiles “would fly over the island.” “We need to recognize that we are in a major militarized crisis, and start calling it by its name: the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis,” said Christopher Twomey, a China military expert at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School who spoke to RFA in a personal capacity. “What will get the most attention are missile tests, particularly if they land close to Taiwanese claimed waters or fly over Taiwanese territory,” he said. Newspapers in Beijing on Wednesday, reporting Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan and showing maps of locations where the PLA will conduct military exercises and training activities including live-fire drills. CREDIT: Reuters High level of attention In the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis (1995-1996), a series of missile tests was conducted by the PLA in the waters surrounding Taiwan and the PLA live ammunition exercises led to intervention by the U.S., which staged the biggest display of American military might in Asia since the Vietnam War. “The six areas in which the PLA will execute its live-fire drills until Sunday clearly delineate a military encirclement of Taiwan. To me, it looks like a prelude or preparations for a future scenario that is not primarily focused on amphibious assault, but on blockade,” said Nadège Rolland, a senior fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR), a U.S. private think-tank. “If this is the case, it will not only choke Taiwan, but also directly impact Japan’s security, and the region’s civilian transit as several Asian airlines have already canceled their flights over the broader area,” said Rolland, who previously served as a senior advisor on Asian and Chinese strategic issues at the French Ministry of Defense. “The exercises will generate a high level of attention from both Taiwan’s military and that of the United States. Both will want to ensure that the exercises are not a cover for an even more offensive action, but also will want to learn about Chinese capabilities and operational practices,” Christopher Twomey said. The maritime drills that see PLA troops entering an area within 12 nautical miles of Taiwan were announced on Tuesday evening when Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi landed in Taipei for a brief but highly symbolic visit. Pelosi is the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit the democratic island in the last 25 years. Beijing has repeatedly condemned the visit as a “grave violation” of China’s sovereignty and integrity, and threatened the “strongest countermeasures.” ‘Irresponsible drills’ Taiwan’s defense ministry said in a statement that by announcing air-naval live-fire drills around the island, Chinese leaders “made it self-evidently apparent that they seek a cross-strait resolution by force instead of peaceful means.” U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan in a media interview on Wednesday called the drills “irresponsible” and they would “make the chance of an incident real.” “The actors involved are certainly the same as for the three crises in 1954, 1958 and 1995-96, but the geostrategic context is very different,” said NBR’s Nadège Rolland. “In each of the three previous crises, the U.S. intervened militarily and the military tensions between the PRC [People’s Republic of China] and the ROC [Republic of China] were prolonged but diffused after a rapid initial escalation,” said Rolland, referring to China and Taiwan by their official names. “It remains to be seen whether the U.S. will get involved this time,” she said, noting that if the survival of Taiwan and Japan is at stake, “it will be impossible for the U.S. not to intervene at a minimum to safeguard the freedom of the sea lanes on which transit the majority of international commerce.” On Thursday morning, the U.S. Air Force dispatched an RC-135S reconnaissance aircraft to observe the drills but the USS Ronald…
China may fire missiles over Taiwan as part of live-fire drills
Unprecedented Chinese live-fire maritime drills got underway on Thursday with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) threatening to fire missiles over Taiwan and enter the island’s territorial waters for the first time in a scenario that analysts describe as “the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis.” Chinese international state broadcaster CGTN said “military exercises and training activities, including live-fire drills around Taiwan island” have begun. Conventional missiles are expected to be test-launched from naval vessels that are sailing to the east of Taiwan and from the mainland, according to the PLA Eastern Theater Command. Chinese analysts, quoted by state media, said the missiles “would fly over the island.” Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense said it is closely monitoring the situation, strengthening military alerts, and “will respond appropriately.” The ministry said that unidentified aircraft, probably drones, were spotted over Taiwan’s Kinmen islands on Wednesday night. During the day, 22 Chinese military aircraft also crossed the median line dividing the Taiwan Strait, it said. On Thursday morning, the U.S. Air Force dispatched a RC-135S reconnaissance aircraft to observe the drills but the USS Ronald Reagan, the U.S. Navy’s only forward-deployed aircraft carrier, seems to have moved north towards Japan, according to a Beijing-based think-tank that has been tracking regional military movements. “USS Ronald Reagan and her strike group are underway in the Philippine Sea continuing normal, scheduled operations as part of her routine patrol in support of a free and open Indo-Pacific,” a U.S. Navy Seventh Fleet spokesperson was quoted by Reuters as saying. The maritime drills that see PLA troops entering an area within 12 nautical miles (22 kilometers) of Taiwan were announced on Tuesday evening when Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi landed in Taipei for a brief but highly symbolic visit. Beijiing has repeatedly condemned the visit as a “grave violation” of China’s sovereignty and integrity, and threatened “strongest countermeasures.” Pelosi is the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit the democratic island in 25 years. Taiwan’s defense ministry said in a statement that by announcing air-naval live-fire drills around the island, Chinese leaders “made it self-evidently apparent that they seek a cross-strait resolution by force instead of peaceful means.” U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, in a media interview on Wednesday, called the drills “irresponsible” and said they would “make the chance of an incident real.” Chinese military helicopters fly past Pingtan island, one of mainland China’s closest point from Taiwan, on August 4, 2022, ahead of massive military drills off Taiwan. CREDIT: AFP Joint military exercises The PLA’s Eastern Theater Command already conducted a number of military exercises around Taiwan after the U.S. House Speaker’s arrival. The joint naval-air exercises, which started on Tuesday and continued on Wednesday, were carried out in the north, southwest and southeast waters and airspace off Taiwan, according to the PLA Daily. Maj. Gen. Gu Zhong, deputy chief of staff of the PLA Eastern Theater Command was quoted by the newspaper as saying the Chinese troops conducted “targeted training exercises of joint blockade, strikes on land and maritime targets, airspace control operations as well as the live firing of precision-guided munitions.” “This round of joint military operations is a necessary response to the dangerous move made by the U.S. and Taiwan authorities on the Taiwan question,” Gu was quoted as saying. The maritime drills, that started on Thursday and last until Sunday, have attracted the most attention, not least because they are set to be larger in scale than those in 1996 during the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis but also unprecedented in many ways. For the first time, Chinese troops are expected to enter the 12-nautical-mile waters around Taiwan which, according to the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea, serve as the island’s sovereign territorial waters. “We need to recognize that we are in a major militarized crisis, and start calling it by its name: the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis,” said Christopher Twomey, a China military expert. “What will get the most attention are missile tests, particularly if they land close to Taiwanese claimed waters or fly over Taiwanese territory,” he told RFA. In the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis (1995-1996), a series of missile tests were conducted by the PLA in the waters surrounding Taiwan. The PLA live ammunition exercises led to the U.S. intervening by staging the biggest display of American military might in Asia since the Vietnam War.
ASEAN ratchets up criticism of Myanmar junta as Russian FM visits Naypyidaw
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) ratcheted up its criticism of member state Myanmar’s junta on Wednesday, as Russia’s top diplomat visited Naypyidaw despite international outrage of the regime’s execution of four prominent democracy activists. In a speech delivered at the opening ceremony of the 55th ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Phnom Penh on Wednesday, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, whose nation holds the rotating chair of the bloc, acknowledged that no progress has been made on Myanmar’s political crisis, despite junta chief Snr. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing’s pledge to end violence in April last year. Hun Sen said that if the junta continues to execute its political opponents he would be forced to “reconsider ASEAN’s role” in mediating Myanmar’s conflict. “The situation is now very volatile with the execution of the four opposition activists, and can be said to be worse than before the Five-Point Consensus (5PC),” he said, referring to the agreement Min Aung Hlaing made with ASEAN in April 2021 during an emergency meeting on the situation in Myanmar. “ASEAN is deeply shocked and horrified by the execution of these opposition activists.” ASEAN’s 5PC called for an end to violence, constructive dialogue among all parties, the mediation of such talks by a special ASEAN envoy, the provision of ASEAN-coordinated humanitarian assistance and a visit to Myanmar by an ASEAN delegation to meet with all parties. Even Min Aung Hlaing acknowledged that the junta had failed to hold up its end of the bargain on the consensus in a televised speech on Monday in which he announced that the junta was extending by six months the state of emergency it declared following its Feb. 1, 2021 coup. He blamed the coronavirus pandemic and “political instability” for the failure and said he will implement “what we can” from the 5PC this year, provided it does not “jeopardize the country’s sovereignty.” Frustration with the junta boiled over last week after it put to death veteran democracy activist Ko Jimmy and former opposition lawmaker Phyo Zeya Thaw, as well as activists Hla Myo Aung and Aung Thura Zaw, despite a direct appeal from Hun Sen to Min Aung Hlaing. The executions prompted protests in Myanmar and condemnation abroad, including from outspoken ASEAN member-state Malaysia, which said “no Myanmar military regime representative” should be allowed at any meeting of the bloc, including this week’s gathering of foreign ministers from ASEAN countries and nearly 40 ASEAN partner nations. Wednesday’s comments sounded a different tune for Hun Sen who, on assuming the ASEAN chair earlier this year, predicted that he would use his skill as a negotiator to resolve the situation in Myanmar. Hun Sen’s decision in January to become the first foreign leader to visit Myanmar following the coup was widely panned by the international community as conferring legitimacy on the junta and he has since remained relatively quiet while the crisis has worsened. Call for stronger measures Speaking to RFA Khmer, observers said ASEAN stakeholders should not remain silent on the junta and suggested that the bloc call on the United Nations to intervene in Myanmar if it is unable to resolve the crisis on its own. Cambodian political analyst Em Sovannara said that refusing the junta a seat at the table for ASEAN gatherings doesn’t go far enough. “For example, the ASEAN Chair should start talking to Myanmar’s [shadow] National Unity Government (NUG), not the military government,” he said. Similarly, Soeung Senkaruna, spokesman for the Cambodian rights group Adhoc, said ASEAN should review its 5PC and, if unable to resolve the crisis, seek assistance from the U.N. “There should be strong measures in place to punish the abuse and killing of innocent people,” he said. “We think that with no such measures, Myanmar’s dictatorial leaders will continue to persecute their opponents in any way they see fit.” Attempts by RFA to reach Cambodian Foreign Ministry spokesman Chum Sontory for comment on the situation in Myanmar went unanswered on Wednesday. Long lines of vehicles wait at a filling station in Yangon, April 19, 2022. Credit: AP Photo Russian visit While many Western governments have sought to punish Myanmar’s junta for killing what rights groups say is at least 2,148 civilians over the past 18 months, Russia has continued to support the regime both diplomatically and militarily. Moscow reiterated that support on Wednesday when, ahead of attending the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Phnom Penh, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited Naypyidaw and met with Min Aung Hlaing and junta Minister of Foreign Affairs Wunna Maung Lwin. Details of the meetings remain unknown, but in a post on Twitter Russia’s foreign ministry cited Lavrov as saying that Moscow “appreciate[s] the traditionally friendly nature of our partnership, which is not affected by any opportunistic processes,” apparently in reference to efforts by the international community to sanction the junta. The junta’s foreign ministry said Lavrov and Wunna Maung Lwin “cordially exchanged views on promotion of bilateral relations and cooperation and reaffirmed their commitment to enhance cooperation between the two countries in the multilateral arena based on mutual trust and understanding.” RFA Burmese was unable to reach junta Deputy Information Minister Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun for further comment on the meetings Wednesday. Lavrov’s visit comes two weeks after Min Aung Hlaing traveled to Russia on an unofficial trip, which political analyst Ye Tun described as part of the junta’s bid to secure weapons from Moscow. “The frequent back-and-forth visits between the leaders and the Russian foreign minister’s current visit all point to expanded economic ties between Russia and Myanmar and the effort to obtain military assistance – especially military equipment – from Russia,” he said. Lavrov said in a press release on Tuesday that his trip sought not only to promote bilateral relations, but also strengthen economic cooperation and defense and security ties. Amid the uptick in cooperation between Russia and Myanmar since the coup, the two countries’ relationship has become increasingly complex. Complex relationship Myanmar-based political analyst Than Soe Naing said the…
Pelosi visit renews debate of self determination of Taiwan
Lawmakers in Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan expressed cross-party support for U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit, rejecting threats from Beijing amid an ongoing debate on the democratic island about the strength of its ties with the United States. Opposition Kuomintang lawmaker Chiang Wan-an said Beijing, which announced live-fire military exercises on the eve of Pelosi’s arrival, has no right to prevent sovereign countries from having international visitors. “The Republic of China is a sovereign and independent country,” Chiang said, using the formal name of Taiwan’s government that dates back to the 1911 revolution under Sun Yat-sen. “Congress in particular represents the people, so there are mutual visits,” he said. “Such an overreaction by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is unnecessary.” “We also hope that the relevant parties can guard against the escalation of military tensions around Taiwan,” Chiang said. Ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lawmaker Lo Chih-cheng said Pelosi’s visit would significantly boost Taiwan’s faith in the U.S.’ commitment to its security, however, Taiwan’s official Central News Agency (CNA) reported. Chiu Hsien-chih of the New Power Party, said the visit would likely pave the way for the U.S.’ unequivocal support for Taiwan in the future, the agency said. But Chieh Chung, an associate researcher at Taiwan’s National Policy Research Foundation, warned of possible incursions by Chinese military aircraft during Pelosi’s visit. “Sending planes into Taiwan’s airspace will cause even more conflict,” Chieh told. “I think the CCP’s purpose is to make a strong impression on Taiwan and the area around it, not to actually create conflict [but] to make the situation very tense with a high-intensity show of force.” “But the purpose will probably be a show of force or the threat of it,” he added. A U.S. military aircraft with US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on board prepares to land at Songshan Airport in Taipei on August 2, 2022. Credit: AFP Missile launches possible Chieh said regular incursions were likely across the median line of the Taiwan Strait, particularly at its narrower sections. “July, August and September usually see intensive periods of advanced tactical training for the CCP army, so they may just adjust the timing of some exercises,” Chieh said. “At the same time, we could see a large-scale missile test launch, even of DF-17, YJ-21 or DF-21D anti-ship missiles, which could be tested on sea targets,” he added. He said the main concern was the threat of military accidents or miscalculations sparking full military conflict. “Accidents are a concern when you have such a high density of military activities in the same area,” Chieh said. “Any unexpected incident could cause a sudden and rapid escalation in the situation, which could even trigger an unexpected military conflict.” “That’s what we should be most worried about right now.” Kuan-ting Chen of the Taiwan Next-Gen Foundation think tank, said there is an ongoing debate within Taiwan about how best to win greater international recognition and participation in the face of the threat of Chinese invasion. Chen said that China’s military expenditure has jumped from about 80 billion yuan in the late 1980s to 1,476 billion yuan in 2022, an 18-fold increase. “There will be a debate within Taiwan about how to ensure peace in the Taiwan Strait and the stability of the government regardless of the circumstances,” Chen told. “[It’s about] ensuring that there are no changes to the living standards, economy or political life because of [tensions with China],” he said. Widespread public support Associate professor Huang Kui-po of Taiwan’s National Chengchi University said Pelosi’s visit seems to have garnered fairly widespread public support in Taiwan, despite the military threats from Beijing. “The reason for the support is that Congress is an elected body, and the representatives of the people from both Taiwan and the United States should visit each other,” Huang said. “Another faction believes that Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan may raise tensions in the Taiwan Strait,” he said. “But tensions are going to rise sooner or later; there could be a ripple effect.” Much of the public debate appears to be around a lack of certainty that the U.S. would commit to a full-scale military involvement in Taiwan’s defense, should China invade. The Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation found in an April 2022 poll that a majority of 53.8 percent of Taiwanese adult do not believe there will be a U.S. military intervention in the event of a Chinese invasion, while only 36.3 percent said they believe there would be. Paul Huang, research fellow at the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation, wrote in a recent op-ed article that public confidence in U.S. military support had “decisively turned skeptical” following the lack of intervention in Ukraine following the Russian invasion. “The lack of a direct US military intervention to help Ukraine (despite all kinds of military and non-military aid, intelligence sharing, and other assistance) had a major impact on the Taiwanese public’s confidence in U.S. military intervention and drove a significant number, as much as a quarter of the Taiwanese, toward non-confidence,” Huang wrote for Inkstick Media. Meanwhile, the majority of the Taiwanese public has been very sympathetic toward Ukraine and is highly supportive of Western-led sanctions against Russia, Huang wrote. A majority of supporters of President Tsai Ing-wen’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) do believe in U.S. intervention, while 70 percent of “government workers” who include those on active military service don’t, Huang said, citing recent polls. Punishing Taiwan, not the US Yujen Kuo of Taiwan’s Institute for National Policy Research said any meeting between Pelosi and Tsai will be of “great historic significance” for many in Taiwan, however. “So far, the White House and the State Department have been quite cautious, but Pelosi visiting Taiwan will set a new paradigm,” Kuo said. But he warned that any response from China will likely seek to punish Taiwan rather than the U.S. “I worried about [Chinese] military exercise around the median line of the Taiwan Strait, because this has never happened before, and if a large…
Russia backs China on Taiwan as sanctions, incursions expected during Pelosi visit
Russia on Tuesday backed Beijing’s disapproval of an expected visit by U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi to the democratic island of Taiwan, calling it a “provocation,” as China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) engaged in live-fire military exercises across the Taiwan Strait. Foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told a news briefing that Moscow opposes Taiwanese independence “in any form.” Her comments came as the official media of the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) made no mention of escalating tensions across the Taiwan Strait after Chinese leader Xi Jinping warned President Joe Biden not to “play with fire” ahead of Pelosi’s planned arrival on Tuesday evening. Neither the People’s Liberation Army Daily nor the CCP’s official newspaper, the People’s Daily, made any mention of the story, with the People’s Daily leading with agricultural developments in Fujian. However, the English-language Global Times ran a top story titled “Tension escalates hours ahead of Pelosi’s potential Taiwan visit as PLA remains fully prepared for any crisis.” It said any visit by Pelosi would be “a serious provocation and violation to China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity which would be met with severe countermeasures from the Chinese military.” The article largely repeated comments also made on Tuesday by Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying. It also cited a maritime safety warning to shipping reporting live-fire military exercises off Weifang in the Bohai Sea on Aug. 3, while “military training in parts of the South China Sea” was reported by the Guangdong maritime authorities. The paper’s former editor Hu Xijin tweeted on Tuesday: “Based on what I know, in response to Pelosi’s possible visit to Taiwan, Beijing has formulated a series of countermeasures, including military actions.” Hu also tweeted on Monday: “If she dares to stop in Taiwan, it will be the moment to ignite the powder keg of the situation in the Taiwan Straits.” Tacit understanding? Current affairs commentator Johnny Lau said he expects there is more likely to be a tacit understanding between Beijing and Washington enabling Xi to step up the appearance of military threat to boost his support at home. “Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan is highly beneficial to Xi Jinping, who is taking the opportunity ensure that top military and political figures must unite around him ahead of the 20th CCP national congress [later this year],” Lau said. “The mainland could have the PLA’s planes cross over the median line of the Taiwan Strait, and neither the U.S. nor Taiwan will attack them,” he said. “Both sides know where the lines are drawn, and whoever fires the first shot will be responsible [for starting a war],” he said. “Everyone is flexing their muscle in what is both a political show and a military gesture aimed at certain circles,” Lau said. Wu Qiang, an independent researcher at Beijing’s Tsinghua University, said China could also announce sanctions on members of the Congressional delegation, including Pelosi, including banning them from entering China. “If the Chinese ministry of foreign affairs imposes sanctions after Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, it would be no more than the sanctions imposed on other U.S. politicians in recent years,” Wu said. “They could ban them from entering China or Hong Kong, freeze their assets there, and ban companies from doing business with their families,” Wu said. Diplomacy failures He said Beijing has little other recourse short of military action. “Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan marks an unprecedented change in Sino-U.S. relations, which is of course due to the failure of Chinese diplomacy [in recent years],” he said. China has also suspended imports from 35 Taiwanese exporters of biscuits and pastries since Monday. Taiwan’s Central News Agency reported on Tuesday that China has listed 2,066 foodstuffs as being subject to “import suspension.” Wu said such trade sanctions would likely continue as international support for the democratic island, which has never been ruled by the CCP, nor formed part of the People’s Republic of China, grows. He said China could also try to restrict international maritime access to the Taiwan Strait. “They could declare that the Taiwan Strait is China’s territorial waters, and its airspace part of China’s airspace, and say that foreign vessels [or aircraft] must get approval from China to enter them,” Wu said. International relations scholar Zhong Shan agreed. “China will definitely react in some way, maybe by including Taiwan in its Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) … with military aircraft flying over or around the island,” Zhong said. “It’s fairly easy for the foreign ministry to whip up populist sentiment, but it’s not so easy to suppress it again,” he said. Translated and edited by Luisetta Mudie.
Jokowi ends NE Asia tour aimed at bolstering support for G20 summit’s success
Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, the leader of G20 President Indonesia, undertook a carefully curated tour of Northeast Asia this week to ensure multilateral support for the group’s summit in November amid divisions over Russia’s war in Ukraine, analysts said. The Indonesian president visited China, Japan and South Korea – all countries with important trade and investment ties to Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Jokowi’s trip sent “a message of concrete cooperation and friendship amid a global situation steeped in rivalry and containment efforts,” Indonesian Foreign Minister told reporters in Seoul, the last leg of Jokowi’s five-day tour. “The leaders appreciated President Jokowi’s leadership in contributing to global peace,” she said. Indonesia has often strived to balance its relations between China and its rival superpower, the United States. But in his role as this year’s holder of the revolving G20 presidency, Jokowi has had to step up his diplomatic game by playing a mediatory role to blunt the wedge that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine created in the group, observers said. On one side, western countries in the Group of Twenty have condemned Russia for invading Ukraine. On the other, member-states including China, Indonesia and India, have refused to follow suit and still maintain ties with Moscow. Still, there is no doubt Jokowi wants the G20 summit, scheduled for November in Bali, to be a success, analysts said. “The trip was relevant to Indonesia’s chairmanship of the G20,” David Sumual, chief economist at Bank Central Asia, told BenarNews, an RFA-affiliated news service. “Indonesia wants to make sure the G20 summit is successful and attended by all members,” he said. According to Agus Haryanto, an analyst at Jenderal Soedirman University in Purwokerto, Indonesia is concerned about the prospect of no agreement at the Bali summit. “At the G20, Indonesia faces a major challenge on what the outcome of the G20 summit in November will be,” he said. “With good relations with the three countries [China, Japan and South Korea], Indonesia is looking for support to smoothen things out and reduce tensions.” Jokowi, whose term ends in 2024, wants to leave a legacy of being a peacemaker and reaffirm the country’s “independent and active” foreign policy, Agus said. “During his first term, the president paid less attention to foreign affairs. Now in his second term, Jokowi has shown that domestic politics and foreign policy are equally important.” Tense meetings Under Indonesia’s presidency, G20 meetings have been fraught, as most have occurred after the invasion of Ukraine in late February. At the group’s foreign ministers’ meeting in Bali earlier in July, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov walked out – at least once – during what he called the “frenzied castigation” of Moscow over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Before that, top U.S. British, Canadian and Ukrainian financial diplomats walked out as a Russian official addressed a G20 meeting in Washington on April 20. “The trip will also undoubtedly strengthen support for Indonesia’s G20 presidency, especially in preparation for the summit” in Bali, Foreign Minister Retno said on Thursday about her boss’s visits to Beijing, Tokyo and Seoul. Indonesian President Joko Widodo (left) shakes hands with South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol at the Presidential Office in Seoul, July 28, 2022. Credit: Yonhap via Reuters ‘Respect international law’ Jokowi’s trip to Northeast Asia also showcased Indonesia’s non-aligned foreign policy, which helped him secure U.S. $13 billion in investment pledges in total from China, Japan and South Korea. At a meeting between Jokowi and Japan’s top executives on Wednesday, 10 Japanese companies pledged a total of U.S. $5.2 billion in investments in the next few years, Indonesian officials said. These include a pledge by carmaker Toyota Motor Corp to invest $1.8 billion to build its electric vehicles in Indonesia over the next five years. In Seoul, South Korean companies expressed intentions to invest $6.72 billion, including in the electric vehicle battery, steel and gas sectors. In addition, China said it wanted to increase crude palm-oil imports from Indonesia by 1 million tons, worth $1.5 billion. While investment pledges are welcome, Ninasapti Triaswati, an economist at the University of Indonesia, cautioned about economic and defense deals with China in light of Beijing’s growing assertiveness in the South China Sea. “China’s aggressive actions in the area are causing regional tensions. Likewise, regional tensions between China and Taiwan and Japan will have a negative impact on the ASEAN region and East Asia.” In a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Jokowi stressed the importance of peace in the South China Sea, said Retno, Indonesia’s top diplomat. The only way to maintain stability and peace is to respect international law, especially UNCLOS 1982,” she said, referring to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. BenarNews is an RFA-affiliated news service.
