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Category: East Asia
Chinese authorities fire tear gas at people fleeing Myanmar fighting
Chinese authorities fired tear gas at people attempting to flee from intensifying fighting between Myanmar’s military junta and allied ethnic armed groups. Social media videos showed several dozen people covering their faces at the China-Myanmar border as tear gas hovered on one side of a fence in Shan state’s Laukkaing township on Saturday afternoon. “Chinese police and soldiers used tear gas to expel Kokang people who sought shelter at the border line,” a resident in Laukkaing township told Radio Free Asia on condition of anonymity for security reasons. “They recently fled there due to the escalation of armed conflict.” The allied resistance forces announced on Friday that they would intensify an offensive that has seen widespread gains over the last month. The “Three Brotherhood” Alliance of the Arakan Army, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, or MNDAA, launched an offensive on Oct. 27 – dubbed “Operation 1027” – and have made notable gains against the military in several key cities in Shan state. On Saturday, the MNDAA seized the Kyin San Kyawt border gate near the key border town of Muse, about 90 kilometers (55 miles) from Laukkaing. The gate is one of five major entry points in the area that handles Myanmar’s largest volume of trade with China. It’s the second border gate in Muse township that the alliance now controls, along with two others elsewhere, according to the Associated Press, which noted that almost all legal cross-border trade with China has stopped over the last month because of the fighting. On Sunday, allied forces near another gate in the area carried out drone attacks, which disrupted a cargo inspection area and hit some buildings, while junta forces fired artillery shells from a highland area, locals told RFA. Junta spokesman Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun confirmed to state-owned media on Monday that there were clashes near Muse over the weekend, but he didn’t disclose details or comment on the loss of control of the Kyin San Kyawt gate. China’s live-fire exercises In Laukkaing, MNDAA spokesperson Li Kyar Win said he has seen the tear gas videos but didn’t have any further information. He noted that junta troops had carried out artillery attacks on nearby areas, which forced the local residents to move toward the border. Shan state-based media Shwe Phee Myay News Agency and the local Kengtung Hit Tine online news outlet reported on their Facebook pages that Chinese police had deployed tear gas on the border line.RFA has not independently confirmed the reports. Messages left with Chinese government sources seeking comment about the tear gas weren’t immediately returned on Monday. This house was damaged in fighting in the 105 Mile Trade Zone in the Myanmar-China border town of Muse on Nov. 27, 2023. Credit: Citizen journalist Also on Saturday, junta-controlled media reported that the Chinese government informed Myanmar’s military of live-fire exercises near the border over the weekend. “The regular military drill of the southern command of the People’s Republic of China was reported on Nov. 25,” Zaw Min Tun said. “It is aimed to ensure peace and stability at the border area.” Political analyst Than Soe Naing told RFA that the Chinese drills are the first in the area since 2017 – a period that also saw heavy fighting in Shan state. “I assume that the Chinese army conducts these drills to protect their sovereignty and to ensure the least impact on their people,” he said. “It is not directly related to Operation 1027, but it is their message for readiness on security of their people’s lives and property.” Chinese media reported that the exercises began Saturday and ended Monday, but didn’t disclose the exact location or the number of troops involved. “It is not an unordinary exercise,” said Thein Tun Oo, the executive director of Thayninga Institute for Strategic Studies, a think tank run by former military officers. “There may be some rumors and assumptions on this issue,” he said. “However, China and Myanmar have agreed on military exercises and cooperation in foreign affairs. A mutual understanding has been made between the two countries.” Translated by Aung Naing. Edited by Matt Reed and Malcolm Foster.
‘We want to amplify the voices that have been censored in China’
One year after crowds of protesters across China held up blank sheets of paper, chanting slogans calling for an end to the zero-COVID policy and for Communist Party leader Xi Jinping to step down, activists overseas vowed to keep the flame of the “white paper” revolution alive, despite attempts by Beijing to scare them away. While authorities in China moved quickly to quash the protests, arresting a number of young people for taking part, some managed to leave China, joining others who were already expressing their support on the streets of cities around the world, sometimes risking retaliation against their families back home. One of those overseas supporters was Apple, of the dissident group China Deviants, who was in touch with the protesters in real time via Telegram, and who organized a rally to mark the anniversary of their resistance in London this week. “On one voice call, a girl got busted right in the middle of the call,” Apple told Radio Free Asia. “People in the group were shouting ‘That girl got busted!’ and I was on the other end of the phone in London.” “I was thinking, ‘Oh my gosh! I really wish I could help her and bring her back’,” she recalled. Instead, she got active right where she was, taking to the streets of London to oppose Chinese Communist Party rule. The “white paper” protests were sparked by public anger at the delayed response to a deadly fire on Nov. 24 in Urumqi, capital of the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, that was widely blamed on COVID-19 restrictions. The incident, which left at least 10 people dead, prompted an outpouring of public grief and tapped into pent-up frustrations of millions of Chinese who had endured nearly three years of repeated lockdowns, travel bans, quarantines and various other restrictions to their lives. Apple, a member of the dissident group China Deviants, organized a rally in London this week to mark the one-year anniversary of the White Paper resistance. Credit: Shi Shi But it wasn’t all about calling for an end to lockdowns and mass quarantines. Protesters also voiced calls for greater freedom of expression, democratic reforms, and even the removal of President Xi Jinping, who has been closely identified with the rigid policies. “We want to amplify the voices that have been censored in China overseas, because it’s impossible to have any form of civil society in [today’s] China,” she said. “We want all voices to be included … to be heard.” Fellow China Deviants activist Chen Liangshi said overseas activism is still not risk-free, and that the threat of violence and harassment from “little pink” supporters of Beijing is always there. “There are a lot of little pinks overseas, and I would never know how many people felt the way I did,” Chen said. “But since joining China Deviants, I have found a lot of like-minded friends.” “When we work together for the causes of resisting communist rule, and democracy for China, I feel very excited, and have found a sense of belonging,” he said. Feeling powerless Fellow China Deviants activist Ma Youwei agreed. “It’s very common to feel powerless as a Chinese person living in China,” Ma said. “I wanted to get rid of that feeling.” “How? You do it through action.” Yet the anniversary comes amid growing concern over Beijing’s “long-arm” law enforcement targeting overseas activists and students, who had expected to enjoy greater freedom of speech and association while living or studying in a democratic country. Both Chen and Ma said their families haven’t yet been directly targeted by the Chinese authorities, and insisted on pseudonyms to preserve their anonymity. “This is the way the Chinese Communist Party suppresses the overseas democracy movement,” Chen said. “They try to frighten us into not speaking out or protesting, so they can maintain their totalitarian rule.” “It’s normal to be afraid, but we can’t let that fear stop us, because it runs counter to our values and political ideas,” he said. “We still have to stand up.” Ma Youwei [left], Apple [center] and Chen Liangshi and are members of the China Deviants, a dissident group based in the United Kingdom. Credit: Shi Shi In Canada, Xiaopei recalled using his circumvention tools to go online on the morning of Nov. 27 to see large groups of people gathering on the streets of Shanghai, then heading out on his bicycle to join them. He was later detained at a protest in Shanghai’s Xuhui district, beginning an ordeal of torture and inhumane treatment at the hands of police. “They put my hands behind my back and hit my head against the wall. It was a concrete wall, so my head was bruised,” said Xiaopei, who declined to give his full name. “I protested again inside [the police station], so I was arrested and put on the tiger bench, which is an iron chair,” he said. “My wrists and ankles were all in restraints, and I sat there for more than an hour without being able to move.” Manacles and leg irons Xiaopei was released the following day, but placed under close surveillance, then redetained after taking part in a discussion on Twitter, now X, he said. This time, police put him in manacles and leg irons for 30 days, and was unable to move around freely. “I was in restraints for 30 days … I had problems sleeping, I couldn’t wash or change my clothes by myself, so anyone who monitored me would notice that I smelled bad,” said. “I couldn’t even eat or drink by myself, and I needed help going to the toilet,” he told Radio Free Asia. Xiaopei was eventually released, and decided he was leaving China, and boarded a plane to Canada, where he applied for political asylum. “Ordinary people [in China] are treated like ants and are trampled to death,” he said. “It takes a lot of courage to take part in action [like the white paper movement], and there are huge risks involved.”…
S Korea, Japan, China fail to set summit date, condemn N Korea
South Korea, Japan, and China have not only failed to agree on a date for a landmark trilateral summit of their leaders, but also in jointly condemning North Korea’s latest illegal satellite launch, exposing the widening gaps in reinvigorating that three-party cooperation. The foreign ministers of the three nations did not hold a joint press conference on Sunday, after their first ministerial talks in four years – a rare occurrence that could signify the differing diplomatic stances among these key Asian geopolitical entities. “The countries have reaffirmed their agreement to hold the summit, the apex of their cooperative framework, at the earliest mutually convenient time,” South Korea’s Foreign Minister Park Jin said in a solo briefing after the trilateral meeting with his Japanese and Chinese counterparts, Yoko Kamikawa and Wang Yi in the South’s port city of Busan. A South Korean government source, who asked for anonymity due to sensitivity of the matter, told Radio Free Asia that the joint press conference did not take place as Wang had pre-arranged plans. The person did not elaborate. According to a separate South Korean government official who spoke to RFA prior to the meeting, the primary goal of the ministerial meeting was to set a date for the trilateral summit. The last trilateral summit took place in 2019 in Chengdu, China. “Efforts will be made to ensure that the summit takes place soon,” Park said, without specifying an exact date. The South Korean minister mentioned his proposal for the three countries to reactivate their intergovernmental mechanism as a means to fortify the framework of trilateral cooperation. However, he did not clarify whether this proposal was agreed upon by all parties. Whether China would want to continue the trilateral summit platform has become questionable as its emergence as a global power has relatively lessened its focus in the region. The increasing collaboration of South Korea and Japan under the trilateral framework with the United States also has been a source of discomfort for Beijing. In fact, with South Korea’s current conservative Yoon Suk Yeol administration, Seoul has been more vocal in criticizing China on the international stage – with concerns ranging from Beijing’s decision to repatriate North Korean defectors back to the Kim Jong Un regime to China’s coercive behavior towards the democratically self-governed island of Taiwan. North Korea The three ministers also failed to issue a joint statement in condemning North Korea’s latest provocation, a departure from previous trilateral foreign ministers’ meetings which usually included a consensus on security issues in the Korean peninsula. “I emphasized that North Korea’s recent so-called military reconnaissance satellite launch, along with its ballistic missile launches and nuclear development, are among the greatest threats to peace and security in the region,” Park said during his solo briefing, without saying what has been agreed with his Japanese and Chinese counterparts. North Korea launched a satellite last Tuesday, despite international warnings. Rocket technology can be used for both launching satellites and missiles. For that reason, the U.N. bans North Korea from launching a ballistic rocket, even if it claims to be a satellite launch. The lack of a joint statement is a sharp contrast with the trilateral foreign minister meeting among the U.S., South Korea and Japan in San Francisco, in which the three called the military cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow, including Russia’s technological aid to help the North Korean launch, a “serious threat to international peace and stability.” Unlike previous occasions, when China’s foreign ministry often expressed its regrets, Beijing refrained from issuing a public criticism of North Korea’s latest launch, as the strategic value of Pyongyang has been raised due to intensifying U.S.-China relations. North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency on Saturday claimed that its satellite passed over Hawaii and observed “a naval base in the Pearl Harbor, the Hickam air-force base in Honolulu,” as well as South Korea’s Busan.
Foreign ministers wield new brooms in Cambodia and Thailand
Shortly after being appointed Thailand’s new foreign minister in early September, Parnpree Bahiddha-Nukara made a telling remark: “We want the Thai people to feel that the foreign ministry is contributing to their lives.” Sok Chenda Sophea, Cambodia’s new foreign minister, appointed a few days before Parnpree, told his new ambassadors: “All of you should work to represent the nation and enhance the Kingdom’s prestige, especially in areas like diplomacy, economics, food, sports and the arts. These are the focus of the new government’s foreign policy.” The two new foreign ministers bear a striking resemblance. Neither are career diplomats. Parnpree, whose father and grandfather were prominent in the foreign ministry, instead rose through the ranks of the commerce ministry under the Shinawatra sibling’s governments and then became chairman of the state oil company PTT. Thailand’s Foreign Minister Parnpree Bahiddha-Nukara arrives at the government house in Bangkok, Thailand, Sept. 5, 2023, to take his oath of office. Credit: Sakchai Lalit/AP Sok Chenda cut his teeth in the tourism ministry in the 1990s. Parnpree served as chairman of the Thailand Board of Investment. Sok Chenda was head of the Council for the Development of Cambodia, the country’s investment board, from 1997 until this year. Parnpree was head of a negotiation team for the creation of a free trade zone with India. Sok Chenda headed the Cambodian Special Economic Zones Board. Parnpree studied public administration at the University of Southern California. Sok Chenda studied economics at the University of Aix en Provence. Moreover, both are unlike their predecessors. Don Pramudwinai, a career diplomat and foreign minister under the years of Prayut Chan-ocha’s military-run government, was often accused of putting geopolitics, chiefly relations with Beijing, ahead of more balanced, economics-focused policy, as well as for conducting “cowboy diplomacy” over the Myanmar crisis that badly dented ASEAN unity. Another charge against Don was that, because he was appointed by a junta that had just taken power in a coup, he “spent a large part of his time explaining when, how, and to what extent his country would return, or has returned, to democracy.” As Benjamin Zawacki added, “His tenure has been marked by a conservative and defensive posture rather than one of enterprise or ambition.” Similar accusations have been leveled at Cambodia’s former foreign minister. Prak Sokhonn, who was quick to lash out against the perceived Western interference in Cambodia’s domestic affairs, was more aligned with Beijing than some officials in the economic ministries liked, and, one hears, not entirely trusted by the former prime minister Hun Sen. Indeed, Hun Sen is believed to have ignored Prak and the foreign ministry by condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Economics at the center Parnpree and Sok Chenda are new brooms, appointed to refashion their ministries away from a defensive posture on their relations with China and a fixation with stoking geopolitical tensions, and towards a more sustainable, front-foot policy that puts economics at the center. As one Thai newspaper put it, Parnpree is “expected to impart a new momentum to the country’s foreign policy with a strong emphasis on exploring economic dimensions of bilateral and multilateral relationships.” A Cambodian analyst has argued, “To maintain economic development, Cambodia cannot become subject to US or Western economic sanctions. Maintaining economic development may be Cambodia’s main priority under the leadership of Prime Minister Hun Manet. This appears to be the case with the appointment of Sok Chenda Sophea as the minister of Foreign Affairs.” These ideas aren’t radical. Surakiart Sathirathai, Thailand’s foreign minister between 2001 and 2005, sought to create “CEO ambassadors”. Surin Pitsuwan, a predecessor, established a “Team Thailand” approach, with diplomats supposed to represent the nation as much as the foreign ministry. But the return to a more stable, stripped-down foreign policy makes sense as Thailand and Cambodia undergo political change. Hun Sen speaks at a press conference at the National Assembly after a vote to confirm his son, Hun Manet, as Cambodia’s prime minister in Phnom Penh, August 22, 2023. It is said that Hun Sen did not entirely trust his foreign minister, Prak Sokhonn. Credit: Cindy Liu/Reuters Thailand has its first civilian, democratically elected government again for more than a decade. Cambodia has just undergone a once-in-a-lifetime generational succession of its ruling elites, with almost the entire old guard resigning in August to make way for a younger generation, mostly the children of that old guard. Neither Parnpree nor Sok Chenda are big characters. Indeed, they’re rather bureaucratic. And they are on the senior end of the age spectrum. At 66, Parnpree is one of the oldest in the new Thai cabinet. Sok Chenda, aged 67, is the oldest of Cambodia’s important ministers. (He’s 20 years older than the PM.) They are also excellent counterparts to their prime ministers. Srettha Thavisin, the Thai premier, is a businessman at heart. Although Hun Manet rose through the ranks of the military, he studied economics and played a guiding role in the companies owned by his wife. Parnpree and Sok Chenda appear happy to defer much of the more razmataz foreign policy, such as showing up for international summits, to their prime ministers. Srettha, the self-styled “salesman”-in-chief, clearly likes traveling around the world and meeting foreign leaders, and posing for rather ingratiating and embarrassing selfies with them. Cambodia’s ruling party obviously wants Hun Manet to be front-and-center of Cambodia’s engagement abroad, a role similar to the one played by his father. As such, having nose-to-the-grindstone foreign ministers makes sense alongside globetrotting premiers. Experienced foreign policy thinkers In part, too, the two new foreign ministers are also designed to appease the private sectors, especially as Cambodia and Thailand have untested and unsteady governments; Thailand in the form of an odd coalition and Cambodia with its dynastic succession of Hun Manet and almost the entire cabinet. It’s not quite the Biden administration’s evocation of a “Foreign Policy for the Middle Class” but it’s not far off. How the new foreign ministers translate their briefs into action remains to be seen. In…
Activists call for probe into China’s ‘consular volunteers’ network
The Chinese Communist Party is running a global network of “consular volunteers” through its embassies and consulates who form part of its “United Front” influence and enforcement operations on foreign soil, according to a new report, prompting calls for democratic governments to investigate. While Chinese embassies and consulates have been using such informal networks for at least a decade, they were recently formalized through a State Council decree that took effect on Sept. 1, yet the networks remain largely undeclared to host countries, the Spain-based rights group Safeguard Defenders said in a report published this week. Consular volunteers are mostly drafted in to help with administrative tasks linked to consular protection, risk assessments, and even “warnings and advisories” to overseas citizens and organizations, the report said, citing multiple online recruitment advertisements and other official documents. This gives them full access to individuals’ personal information, and “may also dangerously enhance their function of control over overseas communities and dissenters,” the report warned. China is already known to rely on an illegal, overseas network of “police service centers” that are sometimes used as a base from which to monitor and harass dissidents in other countries. Since taking power in 2012, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has launched an accelerated expansion of political influence activities worldwide, much of which rely on overseas community and business groups under the aegis of the United Front Work Department. Under the radar While Beijing has shut down some of its overseas police “service centers” following protests from host countries, the “consular volunteer” network has managed to fly under the radar until now, further enabling China’s overseas influence and illegal transnational law enforcement operations, according to the report. According to the State Council decree, “The state encourages relevant organizations and individuals to provide voluntary services for consular protection and assistance.” The state also “encourages and supports insurance companies, emergency rescue agencies, law firms and other social forces” to take part in consular work, it says. A building [with glass front] suspected of being used as a secret police station in Chinatown for the purpose of repressing dissidents living in the United States on behalf of the Chinese government stands in New York City’s lower Manhattan on April 18, 2023. Credit: Spencer Platt/Getty Images The decree also requires Chinese nationals overseas to “abide by the laws of China,” regardless of location. Organizations and individuals that “make outstanding contributions to consular protection and assistance” are to be commended and rewarded, it says. And official reports on volunteer commendation ceremonies and training events show that they are – under the supervision of individuals with “direct and demonstrable ties to the CCP’s United Front,” the Safeguard Defenders report said. “The [consular volunteer] network runs through United Front-linked associations and individuals and shows the involvement of the Overseas Chinese Affairs Office,” it said, adding that the Office was labeled an “entity that engages in espionage” by the Federal Canadian Court in 2022. Global effort A March 2023 recruitment drive by the Chinese Embassy in the Czech Republic posted to an official website called for volunteers from among “overseas Chinese, international students, Chinese employees of Chinese-funded enterprises and other individuals in the Czech Republic, overseas Chinese groups, Chinese-funded enterprises and other organizations, institutions and groups.” Similar notices have been seen in Trinidad and Tobago, Botswana, Turkey, Malaysia, Johannesburg, Equatorial Guinea, Chile and Japan, the report said, adding that the Overseas Chinese Affairs Office has also been directly named as a participant at training events for consular volunteers in Rio de Janeiro and Florence, Italy. According to the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, “the United Front system acts as a liaison and amplifier for many other official and unofficial Chinese organizations engaged in shaping international public opinion of China, monitoring and reporting on the activities of the Chinese diaspora, and serving as access points for foreign technology transfer.” The Safeguard Defenders report called on democratic countries to review the practice of “consular volunteering” by Chinese diplomatic missions, and warned them not to take part in United Front-linked events. French current affairs commentator Wang Longmeng described consular volunteers as quasi-spies. “The so-called assistance in providing consular services actually means collecting financial support from overseas Chinese individuals,” Wang said. “This can help the Chinese Communist Party control overseas Chinese remotely, making them loyal to party and state, as well as helping China to steal Western technology and intelligence.” “These people are also collecting information on dissidents, and many dissidents’ family members back home are also being threatened,” he said. “This is a quasi-espionage organization and an integral part of the Chinese Communist Party’s transnational repression network.” Wang said European countries have been fairly slow to catch on to such practices, compared with the United States. “That encourages the Chinese Communist Party to extend its long arm even further,” he said. “Their intention was never to stop transnational repression and United Front work,” he said, calling for EU legislation to curb such activities “as soon as possible.” APEC summit Zhou Fengsuo, executive director of the U.S.-based Human Rights in China, said China’s consulate in San Francisco had engaged in the large-scale mobilization of patriotic protesters during President Xi Jinping visit last week to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders’ summit in the city.. “The Chinese Communist Party will take up every bit of space it can in democratic societies to extend its rule and engage in state persecution,” Zhou told Radio Free Asia. “Consulates wield a great deal of power overseas.” “Much like it did with overseas police stations, the international community needs to face up to this form of [Chinese] government control.” After Chinese international student Tian Ruichen took part in protests supporting the “White Paper” movement of November 2022 and the Hong Kong pro-democracy movement, he was unsettled to find he’d been doxxed – a common tactic employed by supporters of Beijing. He told Radio Free Asia that overseas dissident communities need far more protection from the long arm of the Chinese Communist Party than they are currently…
China media talk up economic environment to shore up FDI
In recent days, China’s state media have spared no effort in posting upbeat narratives even as the latest economic indicators for October showed a patchy recovery. Some reports hailed rosy projections from foreign investment banks as the basis of the argument such as the one in the Economic Daily on Friday, which cited the likes of Goldman Sachs and UBS Group. The paper said these banks believe that the “important driver of the accelerated recovery of [emerging markets in 2024] is China’s economic development.” The slew of articles talking up the economic landscape comes as foreign interests continued to shrink for the fifth month in October, with foreign direct investments (FDI) falling 9.4% to 987 billion yuan (US$138 billion) in the first 10 months of the year, compared with the year-earlier period. Furthermore, China recorded its first-ever quarterly deficit in FDI by balance of payments for July-September, the latest data available, at US$11.8 billion. The measure records monetary flows linked to foreign-owned entities in China. Andrew Collier, managing director of Orient Capital Research, said foreign investors will have little appetite in placing their money in China until the structural adjustments in the economy are completed or the end is in sight. “There will continue to be opportunities in certain pockets, including electronic vehicles, fintech, AI, and some supply chains, but they are relatively small compared with the larger industrial base and property,” he told Radio Free Asia. “China will always be important to the global economy but the peak growth days are over for the foreseeable future.” Amid the stuttering post-COVID recovery, Beijing is also grappling with economic structural challenges, coupled with global slowing growth and a cautious improvement in bilateral relations with the United States following last week’s summit between the two’s leaders Xi Jinping and Joe Biden in San Francisco. The drag from the real estate market crisis, underscored by indebted property developers that have defaulted on creditors and implicated overseas investors, is playing up on the broader economy. A battered property sector means slower land sales, a crucial lifeline for the coffers of local governments who are already under the weight of overextended local government fund vehicles established to fund infrastructure projects that struggled to generate sufficient returns to cover their obligations. Measures to shore up the property market included relaxing borrowing rules like reducing mortgage rates and the downpayment ratio and raising the liquidity of banks by lowering the reserve amount they need to maintain. Chinese regulators have also ordered banks and financial institutions to help stabilize the property market by keeping financing channels available for developers. Banking But in urging banks to step up efforts, authorities are reiterating the need to manage risks better and preserve the soundness of the financial system. Again, they borrowed the views of China-based foreign banks like HSBC and Standard Chartered, via state media reports. The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) mouthpiece People’s Daily cited these foreign institutions for being “very optimistic of the potential of the China market.” HSBC, it said, recorded a 54% increase in net profit to more than 6 billion yuan, and the bank would have invested an additional 3 billion yuan between 2021 and 2025. HSBC headquarters building is seen in Pudong financial district in Shanghai December 8, 2010. Picture taken December 8, 2010. (Credit: Reuters) Standard Chartered, on the other hand, would have invested US$300 million in areas including digital transformation, expanding its network and risk management between 2022 and 2024. “All the western banks have to say positive things about the Chinese economy otherwise they will be in trouble with the regulators and the leadership in Beijing,” said Collier. “However, a number of Hong Kong-based banks, including HSBC, earn the majority of their profits from mainland activities and therefore they are forced to put all their eggs in one basket as they have few alternatives.” Outlook for 2024 Pundits are hopeful for more stimulus policies when a revival of market-oriented reforms may be unlikely due to the political climate where the state exerts greater control over the economy including a once vibrant private sector. Such indications could come next month at the CCP’s annual Central Economic Work Conference where officials meet annually to set policy plans and the outlook for the world’s second-largest economy. In its forecast, UBS is expecting China’s 2024 growth to be in the mid-4% and Goldman Sachs at 4.8%. Goldman Sachs analysts in their forecast for next year said several reasons constitute “a challenging longer-run growth outlook.” They are a persisting property downturn and ongoing demographic deterioration – with a shrinking working-age population – that requires China to reinvent its growth model. Additionally, while there may be a modest cyclical rebound in exports, it is unlikely to reverse the ongoing diversification of global value chains away from China and toward some of its peers. Still for 2023, China’s central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said the country is on track to achieve its targeted 5% growth. Edited by Taejun Kang and Mike Firn.
Faced with decline in marriages, Xi calls on women to build families
Faced with plummeting marriage rates, flagging births and a rapidly aging population, Chinese President Xi Jinping wants the country’s women to step up and embody “the traditional virtues” of marriage and raising children in a bid to “rejuvenate” the nation. The number of Chinese couples tying the knot for the first time has plummeted by nearly 56% over the past nine years, the financial magazine Yicai quoted the 2023 China Statistical Yearbook as saying, with such marriages numbering less than 11 million in 2022. Young people are increasingly avoiding marriage, having children and buying a home amid a tanking economy and rampant youth unemployment, part of an emerging social phenomenon known as the “young refuseniks” – people who reject the traditional four-fold path to adulthood: finding a mate, marriage, mortgages and raising a family. A recent poll on the social media platform Weibo found that while most of the 44,000 respondents said 25-28 is the best age to marry, nearly 60% said they were delaying marriage due to work pressures, education or the need to buy property. Georgetown University student Chelsea Yao, 22, who hails from the southern city of Guangzhou, said she doesn’t find the prospect of marriage at all enticing after enduring years of restrictions under the zero-COVID policy. “It may look like a peaceful family, but parents actually have a lot of conflict,” she said. “In the end, marriage is about everyone living together … when you grow up and realize what it’s actually like, it seems a little unnecessary,” Yao told RFA Mandarin, adding that antagonism between men and women seems to be intensifying in today’s China. “Rather than making how you feel dependent on another person,” she said, “it’s better to focus on what you want to do.” Backing away Yet Xi, whose 24-member Politburo is the first in decades not to include a single woman, is calling for the political mobilization of women like Yao to step up and compensate. Backing away from his party’s time-honored rhetoric on gender equality that was once a mainstay of its claim to legitimacy, Xi told a recent meeting that women have a “unique” role to play in the nation’s return to family life. China’s President Xi Jinping speaks at an event on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Leaders’ Week in San Francisco, California, Nov. 15, 2023. “We need to … guide women to play their unique role in carrying forward the traditional virtues of the Chinese nation,” he says. Credit: Carlos Barria/Pool/AFP “We need to … guide women to play their unique role in carrying forward the traditional virtues of the Chinese nation, establish a good family tradition, and create a new trend of family civilization,” Xi told a recent meeting with leaders of the party’s All China Women’s Federation in comments reported by state news agency Xinhua. “Only with harmonious families, good family education, and correct family traditions can children be raised and society develop in a healthy manner,” Xi said. “We need to actively cultivate a new culture of marriage and childbearing,” he said, including “guiding young people’s views on marriage and childbearing” in a bid to reverse the rapidly aging population. Chinese women should be mobilized “to contribute to China’s modernization,” Xi told All-China Women’s Federation leaders. “The role of women in the … great cause of national rejuvenation … is irreplaceable.” Meanwhile, Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang’s speech to the five-yearly Chinese Women’s National Congress also broke with the party’s usual lip-service to gender equality – by not mentioning it at all. Widening gender gap The lack of enthusiasm for women’s rights has had a real-world impact, too. When Xi Jinping took power in 2012, China ranked 69th in the World Economic Forum’s Global Gender Gap Report, which measures policies and suggests measures to address gender inequality. By 2023, the country had fallen to 107th place. While few women have ever risen to the highest ranks of the Communist Party, Xi’s insistence on a domestic role for women is a departure even from the luke-warm, Mao-era rhetoric about gender equality, and the depiction of the party in propaganda films as liberating working class and rural women from the shackles of traditional gender roles, including forced marriage and prostitution. China’s Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang speaks during a meeting at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing, July 4, 2023. His speech to this year’s Chinese Women’s National Congress made no mention of gender equality. Credit: Pedro Pardo/Pool via Reuters In May 2021, Beijing unveiled new plans to boost flagging birth rates and reverse population aging, raising the official limit on the number of children per couple from two to three. But Chinese women haven’t been stepping up to solve the government’s population problems as readily as Xi had hoped. And the current emphasis on traditional Confucian culture appears to have exacerbated gender inequality under Xi, who has also offered little in the way of practical assistance, according to Wang Ruiqin, a former member of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference from the western province of Qinghai. “The liberation of women … should be fundamentally based on their social status,” she said. “But the Chinese Communist Party’s claim that women hold up half the sky is really about political expediency.” She said that rather than just calling on women to take more responsibility for marriage and childrearing, the government should put its money where its mouth is. “The Chinese Communist Party is aware of these problems … but doesn’t actually have any fundamental measures to remedy them,” Wang said. “There is no women’s liberation, no employment or welfare protections, and the cost of raising children isn’t shared by the government.” Obstacles Chinese women face major barriers to finding work in the graduate labor market and fear getting pregnant if they do manage to get a job, out of concern their employer will fire them, a common practice despite protection on paper offered by China’s labor laws. And the authorities have cracked down hard on…
China orders financial support for battered property sector
The Chinese government has urged banks and financial institutions to back a sputtering real estate sector where the biggest developers have buckled under the weight of tremendous debt and don’t have the capital to complete pre-sold homes to hundreds of thousands of homebuyers. The move underscores Beijing’s dilemmatic position of having to defuse local government debt risks while pumping capital into the real economy to prop up growth. The property sector is particularly precarious not only because it is a major growth driver, but the housing issue is closely tied to social stability. Authorities told financial institutions that they need to support “reasonable” fund-raising requirements for developers that are “operating normally,” according to a report from the official Xinhua news agency Friday. The report added that capital raised through credit, bonds and stock issuance has paid off in helping stabilize the real estate market, citing a meeting organized by the central bank, the People’s Bank of China, foreign exchange and stock regulators, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange and the China Securities Regulatory Commission. The meeting was also attended by officials from the two stock exchanges, policy banks and 18 national commercial banks, five asset management firms and four of the country’s biggest stockbrokers. There is no official tally of the extent of debt chalked up by property developers. China Evergrande is the world’s most indebted developer with more than US$300 billion in liabilities. It defaulted on its debt two years ago and has yet to come up with a repayment plan. At the end of October, a Hong Kong High Court judge gave the Hong Kong-listed company until Dec. 4 to come up with a plan when a winding-up hearing will be heard. Evergrande is not alone. Country Garden and Sunac are also in hot soup. The crisis is more pronounced in tier-two cities or below, where most of the 841 demonstrations against property developers since January 2022 to date have occurred, based on data from Freedom House’s China Dissent Monitor. Most of them were staged by homebuyers demanding delivery of their properties with a smaller proportion of construction workers seeking salary payments. Implications of property woes China’s property crisis is a growing concern and a drag on the broader economy – the financial wellbeing of local governments, where traditionally, land sales for real estate projects are a huge contributor to their revenues. These governments are already under pressure from the cracks of local government fund vehicles that are issued to fund infrastructure like roads and airports but have not generated enough returns to cover their obligations. And massive debts piling up are also fueling concerns of a systemic financial crisis. The Central Financial Commission, the financial watchdog led by Premier Li Qiang, on Monday emphasized in a meeting the need to improve financial services that will help economic development. “It is necessary to comprehensively strengthen financial supervision, the responsibility of managing risks, coordination among departments, heighten control of the risk sources as they are diffused, and boost relevant reforms to improve prevention, warning and management mechanisms,” according to a separate Xinhua report citing a commission meeting that Li chaired. A woman rides a scooter past a construction site of residential buildings by Chinese developer Country Garden, in Tianjin, China August 18, 2023. Credit: Reuters Government debts are expected to account for 83% of China’s gross domestic product in 2023, up from 77% last year, according to data from the International Monetary Fund. The IMF’s Mission Chief for China, Sonali Jain-Chandra pointed out that more measures are needed to secure a recovery of the property market, which should include ways to accelerate the exit of troubled developers and greater central government funding for housing completion, following a visit to China early this month. According to analysts at Nomura, an estimated 20 million units of unconstructed and delayed pre-sold homes across the country are the biggest hurdle to turning the property crisis around, and about $440 billion will be needed to complete their construction, CNBC reported. In October alone, official data showed that the scale of unsold floor area for residential real estate soared by 19.7%, compared with October 2022. Funds raised by developers dropped 13.8% to 10.73 trillion yuan (US$1.48 trillion) in the first 10 months of the year. Domestic loans into real estate dropped 11% while foreign investments plunged 40.3% in the 10 months. The rating agency S&P Global has forecast China’s property sales to fall as much as 15% this year, with the drop to taper off to 5% for 2024. The continued property slump would hinder the post-COVID recovery of the world’s second-largest economy where real estate and its related industries make up about 30% of GDP. Beijing has also been ramping up measures to prop up the economy. It announced last month a 1 trillion yuan government bond issuance, which allows local governments to frontload part of their 2024 bond quotas. Indications for 2024 Investors and businesses are also watching out for more indications on Beijing’s macroeconomic direction for 2024 at next month’s annual Central Economic Work Conference. “I think they will continue to send similar signals as what we’ve seen in the past couple of quarters. That is, a high priority to supporting private consumption, fighting financial risks including from housing, continued fiscal support and continued support for the private sector and further opening-up,” said Allan von Mehren, China economist for Danske Bank. “It will be interesting to see if we get any clues about their growth target for 2024.” Von Mehren pointed out that there is speculation of a 5% target but he sees this as a “quite ambitious target as the base effects will be much less favorable compared to this year.” Beijing has set a growth target of around 5% for this year, which state media has touted this month to be within reach. Last month’s data show China’s recovery to remain uneven. While industrial output and retail sales were on an uptrend, the consumer price index, a gauge of inflation,…
North Korea cracks down on unregistered laptops and tablets
North Korean authorities are cracking down on people who use unregistered laptops and tablets to keep them from watching foreign “anti-socialist” videos, residents in the country told Radio Free Asia. Those caught with unregistered electronic devices will be punished as a spy, a resident of Ryanggang province told RFA Korean on condition of anonymity to speak freely. “From now on, laptops and tablets that are not registered with the government will be punished at the same level as with possession of small radios,” the resident said. “If you are caught secretly carrying a small radio, you will be punished as a spy, regardless of the reason.” The punishment awaiting those who might be caught wasn’t immediately clear, but RFA has reported various punishments for people caught consuming foreign media, including execution. Recent investigations into people who were found guilty of “anti-socialist acts” revealed that they were exposed to foreign media through the devices, he said. In recent years, memory sticks and SD cards containing South Korean and Western movies, TV shows and music have been smuggled into the country, usually from China, and secretly passed along from person to person. Authorities are taking the step because efforts to stop foreign media from flowing into the country have been ineffective despite serious punishments, the resident said. “Starting in 2020, there were very strong demands to voluntarily hand over South Korean movies, music, and illegal publications to judicial authorities, but no one actually did so voluntarily,” he said. “Cracking down on South Korean movies, music, and illegal publications will not be easy because they are easy to hide, but now laptops and tablets that can secretly play such materials are being targeted.” Streamlined process It’s the latest bid to exercise complete control over what types of information the public can access. The Ministry of Social Security ordered the head of every neighborhood watch unit to go to all the houses in the neighborhood to deliver orders that all laptops and tablets must be registered, and to receive a signature confirming that the resident has read and understood it. Because the government wants everyone to register their devices, the registration process has been streamlined, a second Ryanggang province resident said on condition of anonymity for security reasons. “In the past, desktop computers, laptops, and tablets were taken directly to the city and county social security department and post offices to be registered,” the resident said. “Now … you can go to the head of the neighborhood-watch unit and write down the date you came into possession of the computer, the route by which you took possession of it, the model, and the year it was produced.” About one-third of all households in most North Korean cities have tablets and laptops, even if they are older models, a former North Korean who escaped North Korea and settled in South Korea at the end of 2019, who requested anonymity for personal safety, told RFA. RFA was not able to confirm the exact percentage of North Korean residents who own unregistered laptops and tablets. Translated by Claire Shinyoung Oh Lee. Edited by Eugene Whong and Malcolm Foster.
Ongoing conflict in northern Myanmar kills 2, including child
Residents in northeastern Myanmar are facing both a humanitarian crisis and intense conflict, people living in the area told Radio Free Asia. On Sunday night, airstrikes by junta forces killed two people, including a child, in Shan state. Locals were caught off guard when a junta plane began an aerial attack on Myo Thit village in Namhsan township around 10 pm. It was unexpected because there had not been any fighting beforehand, said one local, asking to remain anonymous for fear of reprisals. “There is no fighting in Namhsan, but the aerial bombardment was carried out while people were sleeping,” he told RFA, adding that six women and two men were injured in addition to the two killed. “People died and houses were also burned.” The explosions damaged 23 houses in total. The bomb weighed roughly 500 pounds and killed Tar San Naw, as well as a child, when it landed on a house, according to a statement released by the Ta’ang National Liberation Army on Monday. The junta has not released any information about this attack and calls by RFA to Shan state’s junta spokesperson Khun Thein Maung went unanswered. Conflict in northeastern Shan state has intensified in the last two months, as an allied group of resistance armies took three major cities in Operation 1027 in late October. Earlier that month, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army attacked several junta convoys, causing their troops to retaliate. Since Oct. 10, nearly 30,000 internally displaced people have been sheltering in makeshift tents near the China-Myanmar border in Laukkaing township. A camp for internally displaced people in Laukkaing township on November 18, 2023. Credit: The Kokang Since Thursday, heavy rain has made life more difficult for those forced from their homes. After several days of rain, resources are becoming harder to find and people’s health is deteriorating, said a Laukkaing resident, who did not want to be named for security reasons. “They have been living in tents since before [the rain]. It is raining and they are not comfortable anymore. Most are workers from other areas, not residents,” he told RFA. “There are many people who came to work in Laukkaing from other areas. Water also became scarce in that camp.” Elderly people and children are also more prone to illness in the colder weather without blankets, he added. On Saturday, the camp’s water and electricity were cut off. The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army warned Chinese citizens in Laukkaing to return to China to avoid conflict in the region. They also told civilians to stay away from military camps and not to move around the area. All of Laukkaing’s roads and gates out of the city are blocked and locals are facing food shortages, residents also reported. Junta troops are not letting food or supplies into the city. After Operation 1027, battles between the military junta and the three northern allies have been continuing in eight townships, including Namhkan, Chinshwehaw, Nawnghkio, Lashio and Manton. Translated by RFA Burmese. Edited by Mike Firn.
