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Category: ASEAN

Brotherhood Alliance campaign in Shan State spawns contagion effect in Myanmar

Editor013 mins

The Three Brotherhood Alliance’s Operation 1027 in northern Shan State has caused a contagion effect, with its sweeping victories since late October followed by major gains by ethnic resistance organizations across Myanmar.  Since the country’s founding in 1948, the military has never suffered such significant and widespread battlefield setbacks. Despite having seized power in a coup d’état in February 2021, Myanmar’s military has never been able to consolidate power. But now, it looks like the beginning stages of their total defeat, with plummeting morale amongst the rank and file.  Operation 1027 continues across Shan State with the Three Brotherhood Alliance — , which includes the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, (TNLA) the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and the Arakan Army — and some people’s defense forces under the National Unity Government (NUG) having taken nine towns, over 160 military camps, and now controlling key roads.  Opposition forces have seized abandoned armor, artillery, and a large cache of small arms and ammunition. And army attempts to supply their isolated forces by air have had little success with opposition forces often recovering the supplies. Members of the Karenni Nationalities Defense Force, KNDF pose in front of Loikaw University in Kayah State following their attack on junta forces on Nov. 15, 2023. Credit: KNDF The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) is currently pushing towards their former headquarters in Laukkaing, which they lost in 2009. Ironically, the commander of Myanmar’s military forces in that 2009 battle was none other than junta leader Min Aung Hlaing.  Radio Free Asia has reported that a second battalion of some 120 men has laid down their arms in Shan State. The first light infantry battalion to do so, which included 41 men, took place on October 30, 2023. Authorities in Naypyitaw are so concerned about the total loss of Kokang Special Autonomous Zone, that they replaced the head of the local allied Border Guards Force that was established in 2009, Myint Swe, with Brigadier-General Tun Tun Myint of the northeastern command. But beyond that the military is unable to do little other than barrage the region with long-range artillery and aerial bombardments. Despite Min Aung Hlaing’s vow to mount a counter offensive, the military is short on manpower, helicopter lift capability and is facing crumbling morale. Contagion Effect The Kachin Independence Army has joined the fray, capturing a military base in Kutkai, in northern Shan state, where they claim 30 soldiers were killed.  There are ongoing encounters between them and military regime forces in Kachin. With the roads contested, the military is now dependent on ferrying in men and supplies. The fighting has significantly expanded in the past week. Karenni forces launched a parallel offensive, Operation 1111, in Kayah state. They have seized 20 military outposts in 6 days of fighting.  But most significantly, they are in the middle of an assault on Loikaw. The city of 50,000, is the first provincial capital that is at risk of falling to opposition forces.  Karenni Nation Defense Forces (KNDF) have claimed to have killed 110 soldiers and taken 38 prisoners of war. Footage spread across social media shows KNDF personnel taking the surrender and providing medical care for soldiers at the University in Loikaw.  Members of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, MNDAA Pose with ammunition seized from Hkoke Htan military outpost in Kokang region on Nov. 16, 2023. Operation 1027 continues across Shan State with the Three Brotherhood Alliance and some people’s defense forces Under the National Unity Government, NUG having taken nine towns, over 160 military camps, and now controlling key roads. Credit: The Kokang The situation in Chin state has been more fluid. Military forces drove some Chin fighters into India’s Mizoram state, but some dozen were returned to military custody by the Assam Rifles. Days later, military personnel found themselves in Mizoram where they had fled. In this case, the Assam Rifles helicoptered them back to safety in Myanmar.  The military has responded with airstrikes; one of which killed eight children when a bomb fell on the house being used as a makeshift school. The situation in Rakhine has the potential to be the most costly to the SAC.  The Arakan Army (AA) and the military broke their 2020 ceasefire following the coup, but both sides quickly concluded that an escalation of violence was not in their best interest.  A second ceasefire was reached in November 2022. This was an enormous disappointment for the National Unity Government, which sought a new front against the junta.  Breakdown in Rakhine Yet the involvement of the Arakan Army in northern Shan state, where they are a member of the Three Brotherhood Alliance, has led to a breakdown in the peace in Rakhine state.  The military has deployed several navy ships to the region along with additional personnel, but both failed to serve as a deterrent. The AA broke the ceasefire on November 13.  In the first 24 hours of commencing offensive operations, the AA seized over 40 military and police outposts. Some 26 police surrendered. In many cases police have abandoned remote posts to consolidate in the larger towns.  A man stands amongst debris in the aftermath of a military strike on a camp for displaced people near northern Laiza area on Oct. 11, 2023. Credit: AFP The AA took the town of Pauktaw, their first. The military has responded as they can, with aerial bombardment and indiscriminate fire from their naval vessels that has led to the death of innocent civilians and over 20,000 displaced people.  There are reports that several ministers from the Rakhine State Military Council have already fled the capital Sittwe, for fear of being arrested by the AA. The AA can be expected to quickly fill the political vacuum. In Sagaing — where a joint operation between the KIA, the AA, the All Burma Students’ Defense Force, and other PDFs led to the capture of Kawlin — the first of 330 nationwide township capitals to fall, has now spread to Tigyaing township. The…

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Taiwan: the ‘most sensitive’ issue, linchpin to US-China relations

Editor012 mins

The leaders of the world’s two biggest economies emerged from a high-profile summit with a conciliatory and consensual commitment to find a forward path of managing competition that benefits the United States and China, but one issue still remains as the linchpin: Taiwan.  While pundits would not have expected the meeting between President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping this week to have moved the needle as far as Taiwan is concerned, the issue was tabled and discussed, with both sides posturing as they always have. Biden reiterated the U.S.’s agreement to a One China policy and its position that Taiwan maintains its sovereignty despite China’s claims to the contrary. Xi, according to Xinhua news agency, called for the U.S. to take concrete actions to show that it is not supporting “Taiwan’s independence,” stop arming Taiwan and back China’s reunification. “China will realize reunification, and this is unstoppable,” Xi said during the summit, which nonetheless resulted in both sides agreeing to a dialogue on artificial intelligence, set up a working group to combat precursors for fentanyl, as well as resume high-level military-to-military communications. Chinese President Xi Jinping speaks during a bilateral meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, in Woodside, California, U.S., November 15, 2023. Credit: Reuters The self-governed democratic island has been the flashpoint amid the increasingly tense bilateral relationship between China and the U.S. The two have disputed the Taiwan issue for years, especially since the previous administration of Donald Trump. Beijing has claimed numerous times that it could resort to using force to reclaim the island if necessary. The escalated diplomatic stand-off, coupled with China’s apparent increased inward-looking and restricting investment environment for foreign investors to be topped by Beijing’s tightened grip on Hong Kong have triggered an outflow of capital.  “Taiwan was really an essential part of the summit,” pointed out Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis. “The well-crafted speech by Xi during the business summit referring to the fact that China will not engage in any cold war, or that China is looking for a military conflict is very important. I think China knows well that the Taiwan issue is top on the agendas of business executives. And that risk is now one of the reasons actually why some people aren’t investing either in Taiwan for that matter or the mainland. So I think that is a big statement.” “Peaceful coexistence” The evening after his summit with Biden, Xi addressed a room full of top U.S. business leaders in San Francisco, where he called “peaceful coexistence” a baseline for China and the U.S. to uphold as two major countries. Xi stressed that China never bets against the U.S. or interferes in its internal affairs. “Likewise the United States should not bet against China, or interfere in China’s internal affairs.” He added, “aggression and expansion are not in our genes.” To what extent Xi’s remarks will help de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait, and by virtue the broader South China Sea, will likely be watched closely by analysts, but more importantly by Taiwan’s neighbors Japan and South Korea which are key allies of the U.S. in the region. At the same time, it also raises the question of how reassuring it would be to investors to bring fresh capital back to China. The U.S., Japan and South Korea have expressed their objection to what they saw as threats from Beijing, as China conducted military exercises around Taiwan to assert its sovereignty over the island. The Chinese navy has also been engaging in aggressive maneuvers in the South China Sea in a standoff with the Philippines. A Taiwan Navy Knox-class frigate fires chaff during a navy exercise off Yilan County, Taiwan, Friday, April 13, 2018. Credit: AP The dispute between the two major powers over the island amplified when Beijing issued a strong criticism following the visit of the then-Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, to Taiwan in August 2022. Since the event, the Chinese side had suspended its military communication channels with the U.S., a critical channel considered a last resort to prevent an unintended military confrontation. According to Zhang Baohui, professor of government and international affairs at Hong Kong-based Lingnan University, although the resumption of military communication channels between the U.S. and China will have a limited effect on the Taiwan issue, it is still a stabilizer to the high-risk relations between the two. “The US achieved its goal of reopening military to military ties and secured Chinese cooperation, while China achieved the goal of stabilizing the strategic rivalry, preventing it from getting worse,” said Zhang. “I think the outcome is positive for both countries. Both gained the image that they can work together to enhance global welfare.” Financial implications  On the financial and business front, investors are taking a wait-and-see approach to the impact of the summit. For one, the U.S. did not lift any export controls on high-end semiconductors, an issue that China raised in the summit, criticizing the Americans for attempting to deny Chinese people the right to development. “The meeting should prove to have little long-term impact on financial markets. Xi did receive a very positive reception from business leaders, but here he was preaching to the choir,” said Brock Silvers, chief investment officer of Kaiyuan Capital.  “Little was said or agreed that would convince recalcitrant investors that China was now prepared to tackle systemic or deflationary pressures, make necessary reforms, or meaningfully address investability concerns. “For investors, very few minds were likely changed.”  U.S. President Joe Biden and China’s President Xi Jinping walk in the gardens at the Filoli Estate in Woodside, Calif., Wednesday, Nov, 15, 2023, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. Credit:The New York Times via AP, Pool Garcia-Herrero is more optimistic. Overall, the Xi-Biden meeting could prompt the foreign business community to see that “maybe China’s not so uninvestable,” she said.  “I’m expecting inflows into China because of this…

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Former lawmaker dies in police custody after arrest for Myanmar scams

Editor011 mins

A former member of parliament for Myanmar’s pro-military Union Solidarity and Development Party wanted by Chinese authorities has died in police custody after being arrested for masterminding an online scam ring, according to junta-controlled media. Police in the Kokang Self-Administered Zone in northern Shan state, along Myanmar’s border with China, arrested ethnic Chinese businessman Ming Xuechang in Laukking township on Thursday in addition to his son Ming Guoping and grandson Ming Zhenzhen, MRTV said in a report. Beijing issued arrest warrants for the three late last week for allegedly helping to orchestrate telecom scam rings in Myanmar staffed by human trafficking victims. During the arrest, Ming Xuechang was injured by what MRTV described as a “self-inflicted gunshot wound from his own pistol.” He later died in hospital while undergoing treatment, the report said. Myanmar authorities handed Ming Guoping and Ming Zhenzhen over to police from China’s Yunnan province via the border gate at Yanglongkeng, according to MRTV. In addition to the three, Chinese authorities had also issued an arrest warrant for Ming Xuechang’s daughter, Ming Julan, who remains at large. Myanmar’s junta said the four family members committed online fraud, abduction, illegal detention, and extortion in the Kokang Self-Administered Zone. Experts say that many powerful officials in Kokang hold Chinese national ID cards and passports, giving Chinese police the jurisdictional authority to issue warrants for their arrest. Arrests in Yunnan Prior to issuing warrants for the members of the Ming family, authorities in China arrested 11 businesspeople at a trade fair in Yunnan’s Lincang township on Oct. 1, according to Chinese state media.  Among them was Liu Zhangqi – a hotelier and former lawmaker for the Union Solidarity and Development Party in Kone Kyan township who is another of Ming Xuechang’s grandsons. Phoe Wa, a native of Hopan township in northern Shan’s Wa state self-administered zone with knowledge of the online scam industry, told RFA Burmese that he believes the arrests are related. “Some of the 11 are friends or relatives of the four who were the focus of the recent arrest warrants,” he said. “While there are [gambling] coin games on the first floor of hotels in Laukkaing, Muse and Chinshwehaw townships, there are typically restricted upper floors which house online fraud businesses. I assume that these cases are related to these online scams.” A source who is close to Liu Zhangqi, also known as “Maung Maung,” told RFA on condition of anonymity that attempts by family members to meet with the 11 arrested businesspeople in Yunnan have been rebuffed by Chinese authorities. Residents of Kokang who speak Chinese said that on Nov. 12, Liu published a statement in the Chinese media calling on the public to “help the Chinese government control online fraud” in the region. In the statement, Liu said Chinese authorities would “raid homes, hotels and casinos to find suspects,” and warned that anyone who resists arrest “bears responsibility for their own actions.” While reports by local media suggest that Chinese special forces have entered Kokang to conduct arrests of online fraud suspects, RFA has been unable to independently verify the claims. Kokang chief removed The arrest of the Mings comes a day after the junta removed Myint Swe as chief administrator for Kokang and replaced him with Brig. Gen. Tun Tun Myint on a temporary basis. Myint Swe was last seen in public on Nov. 8 at an emergency meeting of the National Defense and Security Council in Naypyidaw, which he had been invited to as a special participant. The junta’s announcement of his replacement made no mention of whether it was related to Thursday’s arrests. RFA made several attempts to contact the Chinese Embassy in Yangon by email for comment on the warrants, arrests, and alleged operations by Chinese special forces in Kokang, but received no response by the time of publishing. Myint Swe, seen at a meeting Nov. 8, was removed on Wednesday as the chief administrator for Kokang Self-Autonomous Special Region. Credit: Myanmar military Chinese Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong led a delegation of officials to meet with junta chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing in Naypyidaw on Oct. 31. During the meeting, the two agreed to form a joint Myanmar-China task force to eradicate online scam rings in the Laukkaing area, according to pro-junta media reports. Days earlier, the “Three Brotherhood” Alliance of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Arakan Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army launched an offensive on Oct. 27 dubbed “Operation 1027” and have since made notable gains against the military in several key cities in Shan state. On Day One of the campaign, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, or MNDAA, occupied Chinshwehaw township and arrested several people for alleged roles in online scams. Crackdown only ‘tip of iceberg’ According to pro-junta media, authorities in Kokang have arrested a total of 7,789 foreign nationals – including 7,395 Chinese, 189 Vietnamese, 162 Thais, 32 Malaysians and two Laotians – in connection with online scams in the region. Authorities have deported 6,892 of them to China, reports said. Junta authorities in Myanmar’s Shan state have arrested and deported hundreds of Chinese nationals linked to telecom scams in the region in recent stings, but residents say the rings continue to flourish there, attracting workers with the promise of good-paying jobs. Scamming gangs have proliferated in Shan state, along eastern Myanmar’s borders with China and Thailand, amid the political chaos of the Feb. 1, 2021, coup d’etat, benefitting from widespread unemployment, poor oversight, and growing investment from across the border. Residents told RFA Burmese that scamming operations continue to thrive despite the crackdown, offering high-paying jobs to candidates with computer and language skills who are then held against their will and forced to earn money for their captors by working as telecom scammers. The gangs are known to brutally punish trafficking victims who refuse to work for them or fail to meet earning quotas, sometimes with deadly consequences. MNDAA spokesman Li Kyarwen told RFA that local military…

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Thailand backs away from Chinese police patrol plan amid furor

Editor05 mins

The Thai government has ruled out a proposal for Chinese police to be stationed at tourist hotspots around the kingdom amid a public backlash.  The Tourism Authority of Thailand, TAT, on Sunday said the country was in talks with China about introducing joint police patrols as a way to appease Chinese visitors’ fears about safety. But the announcement sparked an outcry and earned pushback from the national police chief, Gen. Torsak Sukvimol, who said having Chinese officers on Thai soil was “a breach of sovereignty,” according to a report from BenarNews, an affiliate of Radio Free Asia. Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, who is in San Francisco for the APEC summit, said Monday there was no plan to station Chinese police in the country for joint patrols.  Thailand only wanted to exchange information with China on criminal gangs operating in the Southeast Asian nation, Srettha said, according to a report from Bloomberg News. In Bangkok, Tourism Minister Sudawan Wangsuphakijkosol echoed the prime minister’s comments, saying there was “no policy to bring Chinese police” to Thailand. “The Thai police are already adequate … and are working hard to ensure tourist confidence,” he told reporters on Tuesday. TAT Gov. Thapanee Kiatphaibool apologized the same day for the “misunderstanding” and any “negative sentiment” stirred up by her comments. Chinese tourists accounted for a quarter of nearly 40 million tourist arrivals in Thailand in 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic hit. But visitor numbers from the world’s No 2 economy have been slower to bounce back than anticipated after Beijing lifted its hardline pandemic rules in January. Thailand expects between 4 million and 4.4 million Chinese visitors this year, the TAT said.  On Wednesday, Chinese Ambassador to Thailand Han Zhiqiang paid a courtesy visit to Sudawan to stress the importance of the bilateral relationship.  “China’s government supports Chinese tourists visiting Thailand,” he said in a video posted by the tourism ministry. “This helps stimulate the economy, the tourism industry and, moreover, brings the two countries closer together.” The country’s image as a safe tourist destination for Chinese has been knocked by a spate of recent kidnap-for-ransom cases and reports of people being tricked into being trafficked as workers at scam call centers in nearby Myanmar. A shooting spree that left three people dead, including one Chinese national, at a popular Bangkok shopping mall last month has also raised safety concerns. The presence of Chinese police on foreign soil has become a sensitive issue worldwide after it was revealed by Spain-based Safeguard Defenders group in a September 2022 report that China was carrying out transnational policing operations across five continents, without the approval of the jurisdictions they were operating in.  The report said the operations “eschew official bilateral police and judicial cooperation and violate the international rule of law, and may violate the territorial integrity of third countries involved in setting up a parallel policing mechanism using illegal methods.” BenarNews is an online news outlet affiliated with Radio Free Asia.

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Another junta battalion surrenders to rebels in Myanmar’s Shan state

Editor06 mins

A light infantry battalion with more than 120 troops surrendered to ethnic rebels – the second time in two weeks that a battalion belonging to Myanmar’s military junta has laid down arms to rebel forces in northern Shan state. The entire Light Infantry Battalion 129, including its commander and 134 family members, surrendered on Sunday to the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance, a spokesman for the rebel group told Radio Free Asia. “We welcome the soldiers who have surrendered to us,” MNDAA spokesman Li Kyarwen said. “We are also safeguarding them. The injured persons are getting medical treatment. We have safely transported them to their expected destination.”  Each of the junta soldiers was awarded 1 million kyat (US$476) while one family member was given an additional 100,000 kyat (US$47), Li Kyarwen said. The junta battalion was based near the border with China in Laukkaing, one of about a half dozen areas in Shan state targeted during a coordinated military offensive launched last month by an alliance of three ethnic armies. Reports show that the Three Brotherhood Alliance – made up of the MNDAA and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army in Shan state and the Arakan Army in Rakhine state – has taken some 150 military camps in battles throughout Shan state, causing alarm among top military brass.  On Oct. 30, all 41 members of Light Infantry Battalion 143, including a deputy commander and two company commanders, surrendered to the MNDAA in Shan’s Kunlong township. A total of 127 Myanmar army soldiers and 134 of their family members – 261 people – surrendered to the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance on Nov. 12, 2023 in northern Shan state. Credit: Three Brotherhood Alliance Junta chief Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing said last week that the alliance’s Operation 1027 – named for the date that the offensive began – could “break the country into pieces” if left unchecked.  RFA attempted to contact a spokesman for the military junta for comment on the latest battalion surrender, but phone calls went unanswered on Tuesday. No reinforcements On Sunday, the junta declared martial law in eight townships in Shan state, including Laukkaing.  But troops in the region haven’t received military reinforcements recently, which must have been a contributing factor in the battalion’s choice to give up, said Than Soe Naing, a military and political observer.  “They didn’t think that it was worthy for them to sacrifice the lives of more than 200 people, including soldiers and their families,” he said. “In this helpless situation, they made the decision to surrender.” That was the right decision for commanders to make, said Captain Lin Htet Aung, a former military officer who joined the non-violent Civil Disobedience Movement, or CDM, in opposition to the junta. “We have seen considerable losses to the military in recent battles, and we haven’t heard the military express condolences or offer encouragement,” he said. “So, junta soldiers should think about whether they should sacrifice their lives to protect these leaders.” Junta forces also suffered a loss during fighting on Monday near the Indian border in western Myanmar’s Chin state. More than 40 junta soldiers fled across the border and were later handed back to Myanmar authorities by Indian forces. Additionally, fighting between the Arakan Army and junta troops in Rakhine state has intensified in recent days. And in northeastern Myanmar, Karenni Nationalities Defense Force targeted junta bases in Loikaw University and a prison in the capital of Kayah state on Saturday. Translated by Aung Naing. Edited by Matt Reed and Malcolm Foster.

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APEC 2023: Xi heads for US in closely-watched summit with Biden

Editor010 mins

Even as the world watches keenly as China’s President Xi Jinping meets his American counterpart Joe Biden on Wednesday, expectations of what could transpire in a climate of fraught bilateral relations marred by a tech war and regional tensions are modest. Xi is heading to San Francisco where he is due to meet Biden on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, the first time in a year since the two met in Bali, Indonesia. Some experts, while not anticipating a change in the trajectory of the U.S.-China relationship, are hopeful that the talks will deliver some results such as the formal resumption of military-to-military relations. Diplomatic and commercial dialogues between the two have resumed after the downing of the Chinese balloon earlier this year, pointed out Zhang Baohui, director of the Centre for Asian Pacific Studies at Lingnan University.  “The two sides have even begun strategic dialogues on nuclear and maritime issues. However, the U.S. wants to reopen military to military dialogues to prevent inadvertent incidents. This meeting between the top leaders should remove the hurdle for military-to-military exchanges. “If so, this should be a significant development as the world is very concerned by the prospect of military conflicts between the two countries in sensitive areas like the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea,” Zhang said.  To be sure, the White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters on Monday that both sides will discuss strengthening communications and managing competition responsibly so that the U.S.-China relationship “does not veer into conflict” during the summit.  “The way we achieve that is through intense diplomacy,” said Sullivan. He added that there are areas where “interests overlap,” such as efforts to effectively manage competition that could be done by reestablishing military-to-military communications. Incremental outcomes If there were any outcomes to come from the Xi-Biden summit, Ian Chong, a political scientist from the National University of Singapore believes they would be “incremental, but nonetheless important” to maintain the momentum of expanding dialogue. “Such effects will not be seen immediately after the meeting. Rather, they may unfold as more areas come under discussion in the following months to inject more predictability into the U.S.-PRC relationship to avoid unintended escalation, even as competition continues,” Chong said, referring to China’s formal name, the People’s Republic of China. “Xi probably seeks to press the PRC’s case on Taiwan and the South China Sea, while probing the U.S. on trade and technology and seeking more predictably in the bilateral relationship,” he noted.  “Biden will likely reiterate U.S. positions on Taiwan and the South China Sea, while seeking more stability in the bilateral relationship. They may try to gauge each other’s positions on the Israel-Hamas conflict, Russian aggression in Ukraine, climate, and AI.” U.S. President Joe Biden meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 leaders’ summit in Bali, Indonesia, November 14, 2022. (Source: Reuters) Another area of contention that is expected to be discussed is semiconductors in light of the recent chip export ban by Biden, alongside the push for generative AI in both the U.S. and China, observed James Downes, head of the Politics and Public Administration Programme at Hong Kong Metropolitan University. “The key achievable issues or goals will likely relate to the ongoing tech war between both countries,” said Downes. “The Biden-Xi Summit will be much more successful if both sides focus on economic issues, as opposed to long-term and divisive geopolitical issues.” According to Lingnan University’s Zhang, Xi will no doubt pressure the U.S. to relax technology denial measures against China, but he believes the U.S. is unlikely to yield on this issue.  “Technological competition constitutes a central place in the overall U.S. competition strategy,” he explained. Zhang believes that Xi will try to persuade Biden to return the relationship to cooperation, away from strategic competition, seeking a U.S. commitment that it does not support Taiwan’s quest for independence. Biden, in contrast, will seek to stabilize the competition to prevent “conflict” by pursuing more measures to build “guardrails” for its competition with China, like the resumption of military-to-military dialogues.  “The US will assure Beijing that it will follow the One China principle. Nonetheless, deepening security cooperation between Washington and Taipei will continue to bother Beijing and lead to contentious relations with the US.” Seeking specific outcomes Meanwhile, Sullivan said the U.S. is looking for specific outcomes in the overlapped areas of interests from the summit, which include efforts to combat the illicit fentanyl trade and discussion between the two leaders on critical global issues such as Russia’s war against Ukraine, and the evolving crisis in the Middle East. Given China’s stance on the Middle East conflict, there may be a potential that the leaders may agree-at-large, in expressing the importance of peace in the region. China’s deputy permanent representative to the United Nations, Geng Shuang, said in New York on Monday that establishing peace in the region was an important task for Beijing.  However, it could be challenging for Biden and Xi to release a joint agreement on criticizing Hamas as Beijing has traditionally shown a less sympathetic stance on Israel, when compared to that of the U.S. This difference in diplomatic approaches may complicate the leaders in reaching a more detailed consensus on the Israel-Hamas war.  In fact, according to Xinhua News Agency, Geng expressed “shock and concern” over statements made by Israeli officials regarding nuclear weapons usage in Gaza Strip, labeling the Israeli remarks as “irresponsible and troubling.” While Geng condemned the idea of using nuclear weapons, largely aligning with the international community and the Non Proliferation Treaty principles, the senior diplomat did not specifically address or criticize the actions of Hamas, which have led to civilian casualties. Edited by Mike Firn and Taejun Kang.

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Junta expands use of radio shows, Telegram app to boost propaganda

Editor05 mins

Myanmar’s military junta is increasingly using state media outlets for propaganda purposes while it continues its crack down on independent news outlets, several journalists have told Radio Free Asia. The junta has ramped up its use of its channel on the messaging app Telegram to distribute its information, according to the reporters. In addition, there are a number of pro-junta Telegram channels that then amplify the junta’s propaganda. “People need to be vigilant against fake news,” Sein Win, newsroom management editor for Mizzima Media. “It is a traditional and common strategy of the military since long, long ago. People might be trapped in their propaganda.” The junta has revoked the licenses of four publishers and two printing houses since the junta seized power in a Feb. 1, 2021, coup d’etat. Some 14 media outlets including Mizzima, Democratic Voice of Burma and The Irrawaddy have also lost their licenses.  Last month, junta troops raided and shuttered independent news outlet Development Media Group in Rakhine state, arresting one reporter and a guard. The news outlet covers armed conflict and human rights violations in the western state that borders Bangladesh. But junta-controlled media such as Thazin FM continue to operate. Every Wednesday, the outlet broadcasts its “Public Voices Among Public” call-in program. Most of the callers are just parroting junta-approved talking points, several residents of the Yangon and Sagaing regions told RFA. Journalists cover a protest against Myanmar’s junta in Myaynigone, Yangon, on Feb. 27, 2021. Credit: RFA The general message repeated on the program is that the National Unity Government, or NUG, and the anti-junta People’s Defense Force paramilitaries are creating problems that worsen people’s lives. The NUG is made up of leaders in the former civilian government and other anti-junta activists. Junta leader’s visit to friendly media outlets Thazin FM also inserts a variety of songs that carry junta messages into the call-in program, a Khin-U township resident told RFA on condition of anonymity. But the propaganda won’t be enough to counteract what many people are experiencing, he said. “We love to listen to a variety of music, including modern songs,” he said. “But actually, people are suffering various hardships in daily life.” In June, junta chief Sr. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing spoke about the need for more public interest and educational programs during visits to Thazin FM and the military-owned Myawaddy Television. “The military council is preventing spread of accurate information to the world, to the people and to its forces by cracking down on independent media and by creating fake news,” said Nay Phone Latt, the spokesman for NUG’s Office of the Prime Minister. “In addition, they have developed fake media agencies to spread misinformation.” Junta spokesman Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun didn’t immediately reply to RFA’s request for comment on the junta’s use of propaganda. Translated by Aung Naing. Edited by Matt Reed.

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Cambodia’s Hun Manet goes up against the private sector

Editor014 mins

On November 13, Cambodia’s princeling prime minister, Hun Manet, will meet with Cambodia’s aggravated private sector for his administration’s first Government-Private Sector Forum which his nascent government has been preparing for months. There has already been a public furore over the likely rise in taxation, which Hun Manet has denied will happen, but anyone with sense knows it must happen.  The property sector is in a very bad way. Worse is the banking sector, where high private debt has everyone on alter and is leading to sleepless nights amongst the middle classes—domestic credit to the private sector stands at 182 percent of GDP as of last year, according to a World Bank report from last month (p. 46). By comparison, in China, it was 220 percent. Hun Manet greets supporters during a campaign rally in Phnom Penh in July 2023. Prime Minister, Hun Manet, will meet with Cambodia’s aggravated private sector for his administration’s first Government-Private Sector Forum in November which his nascent government has been preparing for months. Credit: Tang Chhin Sothy/AFP Wetting our appetites, Hun Manet has suggested that he will announce new policies, including for the property sector, later this month. One could be to allow foreigners to buy villas in gated communities (boreys), where most of the toxic credit in the property sector seems to be.  At the same time, however, Hun Manet will be being told by his elders—including his father, Hun Sen, Cambodia’s ruler for almost four decades—that he cannot give away too much to the private sector. Hun Manet is an inexperienced, slightly hollow leader whose legitimacy is tied to being his father’s chosen successor, not any of his own achievements (yet). No ‘social bargain’ The upcoming forum will be a moment when some people in the private sector—those expected to fund the lavish lifestyles of the political nobility and the increasing tax burdens of the state, but without getting an actual seat at the political table—think they can gain an advantage.  There is no “social bargain” in Cambodia between the political nobility and commoners. If the economy goes pear-shaped, the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) won’t voluntarily resign from power, nor would it allow the masses to openly protest on the streets. However, there is a delicate bargain between the political nobility and the private sector. The task for all authoritarian regimes is this: how do you ensure that the private sector pays the piper but doesn’t call the tune? After all, why maintain the political nobility (which is rentier in nature) when the private sector isn’t getting something in return? Why not go over the heads of the political rent-seekers?  A man rides a cart in Phnom Penh, Sept. 2023. Credit: Tang Chhin Sothy/AFP This dynamic isn’t specific to Cambodia. In China and Vietnam, the defining policies of Xi Jinping and Nguyen Phu Trong, the two communist parties’ general secretaries, have been a mammoth crackdown on the private sector that reasserts the communists’ monopoly on power as part of vast anti-corruption campaigns. Why? Because authoritarian governments only have to be good at one thing: denying space for any alternative to their authority. But private sectors would be an alternative if they weren’t constrained, as seemed to be the case in both communist states before 2012, the year Xi and Trong came to power. Indeed, businesses and tycoons might start demanding the predictability of the rule of law and private property rights; they might want a direct say in politics; they might start to publicly criticize their political masters (think Jack Ma of Alibaba!); and they might protest by denying the state the taxation it needs to survive.  Splurging on titles How do you rectify this? You co-opt the private sector; you turn a blind eye to its dodgy actions; you create policies favorable to its advancement; you intermarry your political nobility with the economic elites; you arrest outspoken individuals for corruption to set an example of what happens if someone steps out of line. During its succession process this year, the CPP in Cambodia has tried to appease the private sector. It has splurged on the number of oknha titles it awarded; as of June 2023, there were 1,299 people with the honorific, although the number grew after the July general elections The number of land concessions and other corrupt practices also boomed. The Cambodia Oknha Association was launched in June by Cambodia’s most prominent tycoons, with Hun Sen as honorary president. Ostensibly a way for the ruling party to collect “charitable” donations, it is actually a way for the most powerful oknha to constrain their lessors and do Hun Sen’s bidding. Hun Manet’s government now has 1,422 secretaries or undersecretaries of state, more than double the number his father’s government had. Many of these positions are bought and allow the occupiers to extract patronage payments. Moreover, the new administration has vowed to run the country in a more technocratic and economic-minded manner.  A woman on a motorcycle laden with goods rides past a Rolls-Royce at a car dealership in Phnom Penh in 2014. Credit: Samrang Pring/Reuters The apparent insinuation is that it will focus on finances, not playing at geopolitics. It has maintained or appointed ministers whom the private sector trusts. Aun Pornmoniroth, the powerful finance minister, kept his job and is now the real architect of government policy. Sok Chenda Sophea, formerly the head of the Council for the Development of Cambodia, the government body tasked with attracting and managing foreign investment, is now foreign minister. Keo Rottanak, the new Minister of Mines and Energy, was managing director of the state-owned electricity provider Electricite du Cambodge. Chheang Ra, the new health minister, was director of the state-run Calmette Hospital. However, constraining the private sector and economic barons will become a lot more difficult. Things were easier in the past when the lifestyles of the political nobility were relatively cheap (a few billion dollars) and when the Cambodian state had a small budget that was primarily funded by foreign…

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Beijing tests Manila’s nerves in disputed reef

Editor07 mins

China was once again trying to block Philippine ships from delivering supplies to the troops stationed at the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea on Friday. Earlier in the day, “China Coast Guard (CCG) and Chinese Maritime Militia (CMM) vessels recklessly harassed, blocked, executed dangerous maneuvers in another attempt to illegally impede or obstruct a routine resupply and rotation mission to BRP Sierra Madre (LS 57) at Ayungin Shoal (Second Thomas Shoal),” the National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea said in a statement. The West Philippine Sea is the name that Filipinos use for waters claimed by Manila in the South China Sea. “CCG vessel 5203 deployed water cannon against Philippine supply vessel M/L Kalayaan,” it said. M/L, or motor launch, implies a small-sized, motor-powered boat.  The Kalayaan and another supply boat, the Unaizah Mae 1, were “also subjected to extremely reckless and dangerous harassment at close proximity” by Chinese vessels inside the shoal’s lagoon during their approach to BRP Sierra Madre, said the Philippine National Task Force.   “Nonetheless, both supply boats were able to successfully reach LS 57 (BRP Sierra Madre),” it said. “We condemn, once again, China’s latest unprovoked acts of coercion and dangerous maneuvers … that has put the lives of our people at risk.” Manila deliberately ran the World War II-era Sierra Madre aground in 1999 to serve as its outpost at the shoal and has to dispatch ships on a regular basis to deliver fresh supplies to the military personnel there. The Philippines’ rotation and resupply (RoRe) missions have recently been increasingly impeded and blocked by Chinese ships. Philippine ships were surrounded by a large number of Chinese vessels, Nov. 10, 2023. Credit: Ray Powell on X In a graphic provided by Ray Powell from the U.S. Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation, Philippine Coast Guard ships accompanying the two supply boats were surrounded by a large number of Chinese vessels. “In total, 24 Chinese ships were involved in the incident, including four Coast Guard ships. The rest were maritime militia ships,” Powell said. Continuing blockade “Beijing is testing Manila’s nerves,” said Malcolm Davis, a defense analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI). “China will keep on conducting such blockades with the hope that Manila will give up its RoRe missions but it won’t happen,” Davis told Radio Free Asia. When and how the United States, the Philippines’ treaty ally, will get involved remains to be seen, according to the analyst. By a mutual defense treaty, Washington is obliged to defend its ally in the case the latter is being attacked. The U.S. has repeatedly said that Article IV of the 1951 U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty “extends to armed attacks on Philippine armed forces, public vessels, and aircraft – including those of its Coast Guard – anywhere in the South China Sea.” The Chinese Coast Guard quickly issued a statement calling Manila’s mission “illegal.” Spokesperson Gan Yu said that “two small transport ships and three coast guard ships from the Philippines entered the waters adjacent to Ren’ai Reef (Chinese name for Second Thomas Shoal) in China’s Nansha (Spratly) Islands without permission from the Chinese government.” “The Chinese Coast Guard follows Philippine ships in accordance with the law, takes control measures, and makes temporary special arrangements for the Philippines to transport food and other necessary daily supplies,” Gan said. “The Philippines’ actions violate China’s territorial sovereignty, violate the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, and violate its own commitments,” he said, “We urge the Philippines to immediately stop its infringing actions.” For its part, Manila said the Philippine Embassy in China “has demarched the Chinese foreign ministry and protested” against China’s actions. As of Nov. 7, the Philippines has made 58 diplomatic protests against what it sees as China’s violations of its sovereignty in the South China Sea. Last month Manila summoned the Chinese ambassador to the Philippines to protest over two similar incidents, one of which led to a small collision of ships. Second Thomas Shoal is about 200 kilometers (124 miles) from the Philippine island of Palawan, and more than 1,000 kilometers from China’s Hainan island. It is claimed  by the Philippines, China, Vietnam and Taiwan, but is located inside the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Edited by Mike Firn and Elaine Chan. BenarNews is an RFA-affiliated online news organization.

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Investigative Journalism Reportika © March 2022 by Ij-Reportika is licensed under CC BY 4.0