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Month: November 2023

APEC 2023: Xi heads for US in closely-watched summit with Biden

Editor010 mins

Even as the world watches keenly as China’s President Xi Jinping meets his American counterpart Joe Biden on Wednesday, expectations of what could transpire in a climate of fraught bilateral relations marred by a tech war and regional tensions are modest. Xi is heading to San Francisco where he is due to meet Biden on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, the first time in a year since the two met in Bali, Indonesia. Some experts, while not anticipating a change in the trajectory of the U.S.-China relationship, are hopeful that the talks will deliver some results such as the formal resumption of military-to-military relations. Diplomatic and commercial dialogues between the two have resumed after the downing of the Chinese balloon earlier this year, pointed out Zhang Baohui, director of the Centre for Asian Pacific Studies at Lingnan University.  “The two sides have even begun strategic dialogues on nuclear and maritime issues. However, the U.S. wants to reopen military to military dialogues to prevent inadvertent incidents. This meeting between the top leaders should remove the hurdle for military-to-military exchanges. “If so, this should be a significant development as the world is very concerned by the prospect of military conflicts between the two countries in sensitive areas like the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea,” Zhang said.  To be sure, the White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters on Monday that both sides will discuss strengthening communications and managing competition responsibly so that the U.S.-China relationship “does not veer into conflict” during the summit.  “The way we achieve that is through intense diplomacy,” said Sullivan. He added that there are areas where “interests overlap,” such as efforts to effectively manage competition that could be done by reestablishing military-to-military communications. Incremental outcomes If there were any outcomes to come from the Xi-Biden summit, Ian Chong, a political scientist from the National University of Singapore believes they would be “incremental, but nonetheless important” to maintain the momentum of expanding dialogue. “Such effects will not be seen immediately after the meeting. Rather, they may unfold as more areas come under discussion in the following months to inject more predictability into the U.S.-PRC relationship to avoid unintended escalation, even as competition continues,” Chong said, referring to China’s formal name, the People’s Republic of China. “Xi probably seeks to press the PRC’s case on Taiwan and the South China Sea, while probing the U.S. on trade and technology and seeking more predictably in the bilateral relationship,” he noted.  “Biden will likely reiterate U.S. positions on Taiwan and the South China Sea, while seeking more stability in the bilateral relationship. They may try to gauge each other’s positions on the Israel-Hamas conflict, Russian aggression in Ukraine, climate, and AI.” U.S. President Joe Biden meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 leaders’ summit in Bali, Indonesia, November 14, 2022. (Source: Reuters) Another area of contention that is expected to be discussed is semiconductors in light of the recent chip export ban by Biden, alongside the push for generative AI in both the U.S. and China, observed James Downes, head of the Politics and Public Administration Programme at Hong Kong Metropolitan University. “The key achievable issues or goals will likely relate to the ongoing tech war between both countries,” said Downes. “The Biden-Xi Summit will be much more successful if both sides focus on economic issues, as opposed to long-term and divisive geopolitical issues.” According to Lingnan University’s Zhang, Xi will no doubt pressure the U.S. to relax technology denial measures against China, but he believes the U.S. is unlikely to yield on this issue.  “Technological competition constitutes a central place in the overall U.S. competition strategy,” he explained. Zhang believes that Xi will try to persuade Biden to return the relationship to cooperation, away from strategic competition, seeking a U.S. commitment that it does not support Taiwan’s quest for independence. Biden, in contrast, will seek to stabilize the competition to prevent “conflict” by pursuing more measures to build “guardrails” for its competition with China, like the resumption of military-to-military dialogues.  “The US will assure Beijing that it will follow the One China principle. Nonetheless, deepening security cooperation between Washington and Taipei will continue to bother Beijing and lead to contentious relations with the US.” Seeking specific outcomes Meanwhile, Sullivan said the U.S. is looking for specific outcomes in the overlapped areas of interests from the summit, which include efforts to combat the illicit fentanyl trade and discussion between the two leaders on critical global issues such as Russia’s war against Ukraine, and the evolving crisis in the Middle East. Given China’s stance on the Middle East conflict, there may be a potential that the leaders may agree-at-large, in expressing the importance of peace in the region. China’s deputy permanent representative to the United Nations, Geng Shuang, said in New York on Monday that establishing peace in the region was an important task for Beijing.  However, it could be challenging for Biden and Xi to release a joint agreement on criticizing Hamas as Beijing has traditionally shown a less sympathetic stance on Israel, when compared to that of the U.S. This difference in diplomatic approaches may complicate the leaders in reaching a more detailed consensus on the Israel-Hamas war.  In fact, according to Xinhua News Agency, Geng expressed “shock and concern” over statements made by Israeli officials regarding nuclear weapons usage in Gaza Strip, labeling the Israeli remarks as “irresponsible and troubling.” While Geng condemned the idea of using nuclear weapons, largely aligning with the international community and the Non Proliferation Treaty principles, the senior diplomat did not specifically address or criticize the actions of Hamas, which have led to civilian casualties. Edited by Mike Firn and Taejun Kang.

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China calls on businesses to join hands with state sector

Editor011 mins

China’s ruling Communist Party is calling on the country’s businesses to invest in infrastructure projects to stimulate domestic demand and reboot the flagging economy, but analysts said the plan looks like an attempt to seize private sector assets as governments across the country run out of money. Under the plan, the government will allocate “franchises” to invest in infrastructure projects on a “user pays” or “build-operate-transfer” basis, according to an official statement. The government wants private companies “deeply involved” in attempts to stimulate domestic demand through public-private partnerships and joint ventures with state-owned companies. Stakes will be allocated depending on how “market-sensitive” an industry or a project is, according to guidelines for the “new mechanism” issued by the State Development and Reform Commission. The idea is to hand out “franchises” for projects that could benefit from private-sector assets and know-how, under a scheme that Beijing is hoping will bring local government finances “into the sunshine” and “curb new, hidden debt carried by local governments,” according to the guidelines, published by the State Council on Nov. 3. The plan seeks to expand on 10 years of the government’s “public-private partnership” policy, which has coincided with growing government controls on big technology firms and the introduction of ruling Chinese Communist Party committees into private enterprises. While officials have denied that their vision of a “unified market” under tight regulation is another way of saying a planned economy, the ruling party has recently announced it will crack down on an “unruly” financial sector, using “Marxist financial theory” to stave off systemic risks and boost the economy. Growing debt burdens Local governments have seen their coffers drained by three years of society-wide COVID-19 restrictions, as well as a sharp fall in land transfer fees – which once made up 40% of local fiscal revenues – and other property-related income.  They are now struggling with an ever-mounting debt burden, prompting officials to borrow more to pay back old debts, and to raid the coffers of medical insurance funds to make ends meet, resulting in cuts to medical benefits and mass protests in major cities in February. The “new mechanism” still means that the state-owned sector will advance “at the expense of the private sector, said Simon Lee, senior lecturer in accounting and finance at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. “These are all experiments – they are looking for a sustainable model for economic growth,” Lee said, adding that he wasn’t surprised by the current direction being taken in Beijing. “If they find out that ultimately this way is unworkable, it will have an impact on economic development,” he warned. A screen displays an image of the Jinzhou 25-1 oilfield at the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) booth during the 2021 China International Fair for Trade in Services in Beijing, Sept. 4, 2021. The government plans to allocate “franchises” to invest in infrastructure projects on a “user pays” or “build-operate-transfer” basis. Credit: Florence Lo/Reuters The new “franchises” will focus on “user pays” projects with clear charging channels and income streams, and must incur no new local government borrowing, according to the guidelines. The projects will run on “build-operate-transfer” principles or similar models, with the rights, ownership and responsibilities made clear in each franchise agreement. They can include highways, railways, civil aviation infrastructure, transportation and logistics hubs, urban utilities, parking lots, as well as sports and tourism facilities, the guidelines say. “Priority will be given to private enterprises,” the guidelines say, adding that private companies could wind up with stakes as low as 35% in projects with a high degree of importance for the national economy and people’s livelihood. But there are penalties for companies deemed not to have delivered what the government wanted. “If the public products and services provided do not meet the standards agreed in the franchise agreement, the franchisee shall bear liability for breach of contract in accordance with the agreement,” the rules state. Asset grab? Current affairs commentator Fang Yuan said the overall effect will be an asset-grab by the public sector. “In essence, this is a rebranding of an expansion of state control of the economy,” Fang said. “Firstly, the cooperation between state-owned enterprises and private companies [envisaged here] is unequal,” Fang said. “State-owned enterprises will provide an empty shell, while the private companies keep investing, but the private companies own small stakes and don’t control [the franchise-holding entity].” “In the past, when there have been disputes between state-owned enterprises and private companies, the private companies have lost out due to the imbalance of power,” Fang said. “As soon as a dispute occurs, the assets of private enterprises will be swallowed up by state-owned enterprises.” However, the government says it is seeking applications from private enterprises to control or wholly own franchises in waste treatment, leisure facilities, logistics hubs, sports facilities and tourist facilities, as well utilities, rail and other transportation links, as well as rural power grids, oil and gas pipelines and water conservation infrastructure, including hydropower, the guidelines say. “We welcome private enterprises to actively participate in the reform of state-owned enterprises and to promote their in-depth integration into various types of ownership structure,” Yuan Ye, deputy director of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, told a recent enterprise reform conference. ‘Hungry children’ He said state-owned companies at the central government level have already invested in more than 13,000 private companies, adding that the government favors mutual stakeholding as a model for public-private partnerships. Yuan said that while state-owned companies have been approaching private companies to forge cooperation arrangements for some time, private enterprises are now being invited to make such approaches too. But financial commentator Si Ling said the move is an indirect way for the government to lay hands on some of the assets accumulated by the private sector over the past four decades of rapid economic growth. “Private enterprises are still rich, and the government wouldn’t seek to use this money unless it was as a last resort,”…

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Taiwan delegation welcomed to APEC Summit: AIT chairperson

Editor04 mins

In a rare move by a high-ranking member of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), which serves as the de facto U.S. Embassy in the island, the United States has expressed its support for Taiwan’s delegation to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in San Francisco.  Speaking at the annual Thanksgiving Dinner of the Taiwanese Association of America Greater Washington Chapter in Washington on Nov. 11, AIT Chairperson Laura Rosenberger said the U.S. encourages and supports Taiwan’s “meaningful” participation in international organizations.  Rosenberger also said her focus is on opportunities for continued cooperation between the U.S. and Taiwan, while stressing that the U.S.-Taiwan partnership has expanded and deepened significantly in recent years under the Taiwan Relations Act, particularly in economic security and civil relations, as well as in expanding Taiwan’s role in the international arena. She mentioned the tremendous growth in economic ties, particularly the two-way U.S.-Taiwan investment that has created a resilient high-tech ecosystem between both sides, and in turn, a resilient global supply chain.  Rosenberger added that the U.S. continues to support Taiwan’s efforts to enhance its self-defense capabilities, increase resilience, and strengthen deterrence, which helps maintain cross-Strait peace and stability.  The Biden administration is using the full range of congressionally mandated tools, such as presidential appropriations authority and foreign military financing, in an effort to ensure that Taiwan has adequate self-defense capabilities, said Rosenberger. Commenting on Taiwan’s upcoming presidential election, Rosenberger noted that the U.S. has full confidence in the island’s democratic processes and free and fair elections.  She stressed that Washington opposes any outside interference in Taiwan’s elections and looks forward to working with any elected leaders in Taiwan. Rosenberger’s remarks came before the APEC summit, which runs from Nov. 11 – 17 in San Francisco, and will be the stage for a key encounter between U.S. President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, who have a face-to-face meeting on Wednesday.  Although this meeting is not the central agenda of the summit, taking place on the sidelines, it has sparked speculation about the topics of discussion between the two leaders. China’s ambassador to Washington, Xie Feng, said on Nov. 9, that the U.S. “should avoid playing with fire or crossing the line” on “sensitive” issues like Taiwan, and warned U.S. leaders that “a good host needs to avoid creating any new trouble or obstacle.” Translated by RFA Staff. Edited by Elaine Chan and Mike Firn.

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Junta expands use of radio shows, Telegram app to boost propaganda

Editor05 mins

Myanmar’s military junta is increasingly using state media outlets for propaganda purposes while it continues its crack down on independent news outlets, several journalists have told Radio Free Asia. The junta has ramped up its use of its channel on the messaging app Telegram to distribute its information, according to the reporters. In addition, there are a number of pro-junta Telegram channels that then amplify the junta’s propaganda. “People need to be vigilant against fake news,” Sein Win, newsroom management editor for Mizzima Media. “It is a traditional and common strategy of the military since long, long ago. People might be trapped in their propaganda.” The junta has revoked the licenses of four publishers and two printing houses since the junta seized power in a Feb. 1, 2021, coup d’etat. Some 14 media outlets including Mizzima, Democratic Voice of Burma and The Irrawaddy have also lost their licenses.  Last month, junta troops raided and shuttered independent news outlet Development Media Group in Rakhine state, arresting one reporter and a guard. The news outlet covers armed conflict and human rights violations in the western state that borders Bangladesh. But junta-controlled media such as Thazin FM continue to operate. Every Wednesday, the outlet broadcasts its “Public Voices Among Public” call-in program. Most of the callers are just parroting junta-approved talking points, several residents of the Yangon and Sagaing regions told RFA. Journalists cover a protest against Myanmar’s junta in Myaynigone, Yangon, on Feb. 27, 2021. Credit: RFA The general message repeated on the program is that the National Unity Government, or NUG, and the anti-junta People’s Defense Force paramilitaries are creating problems that worsen people’s lives. The NUG is made up of leaders in the former civilian government and other anti-junta activists. Junta leader’s visit to friendly media outlets Thazin FM also inserts a variety of songs that carry junta messages into the call-in program, a Khin-U township resident told RFA on condition of anonymity. But the propaganda won’t be enough to counteract what many people are experiencing, he said. “We love to listen to a variety of music, including modern songs,” he said. “But actually, people are suffering various hardships in daily life.” In June, junta chief Sr. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing spoke about the need for more public interest and educational programs during visits to Thazin FM and the military-owned Myawaddy Television. “The military council is preventing spread of accurate information to the world, to the people and to its forces by cracking down on independent media and by creating fake news,” said Nay Phone Latt, the spokesman for NUG’s Office of the Prime Minister. “In addition, they have developed fake media agencies to spread misinformation.” Junta spokesman Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun didn’t immediately reply to RFA’s request for comment on the junta’s use of propaganda. Translated by Aung Naing. Edited by Matt Reed.

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Cambodia’s Hun Manet goes up against the private sector

Editor014 mins

On November 13, Cambodia’s princeling prime minister, Hun Manet, will meet with Cambodia’s aggravated private sector for his administration’s first Government-Private Sector Forum which his nascent government has been preparing for months. There has already been a public furore over the likely rise in taxation, which Hun Manet has denied will happen, but anyone with sense knows it must happen.  The property sector is in a very bad way. Worse is the banking sector, where high private debt has everyone on alter and is leading to sleepless nights amongst the middle classes—domestic credit to the private sector stands at 182 percent of GDP as of last year, according to a World Bank report from last month (p. 46). By comparison, in China, it was 220 percent. Hun Manet greets supporters during a campaign rally in Phnom Penh in July 2023. Prime Minister, Hun Manet, will meet with Cambodia’s aggravated private sector for his administration’s first Government-Private Sector Forum in November which his nascent government has been preparing for months. Credit: Tang Chhin Sothy/AFP Wetting our appetites, Hun Manet has suggested that he will announce new policies, including for the property sector, later this month. One could be to allow foreigners to buy villas in gated communities (boreys), where most of the toxic credit in the property sector seems to be.  At the same time, however, Hun Manet will be being told by his elders—including his father, Hun Sen, Cambodia’s ruler for almost four decades—that he cannot give away too much to the private sector. Hun Manet is an inexperienced, slightly hollow leader whose legitimacy is tied to being his father’s chosen successor, not any of his own achievements (yet). No ‘social bargain’ The upcoming forum will be a moment when some people in the private sector—those expected to fund the lavish lifestyles of the political nobility and the increasing tax burdens of the state, but without getting an actual seat at the political table—think they can gain an advantage.  There is no “social bargain” in Cambodia between the political nobility and commoners. If the economy goes pear-shaped, the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) won’t voluntarily resign from power, nor would it allow the masses to openly protest on the streets. However, there is a delicate bargain between the political nobility and the private sector. The task for all authoritarian regimes is this: how do you ensure that the private sector pays the piper but doesn’t call the tune? After all, why maintain the political nobility (which is rentier in nature) when the private sector isn’t getting something in return? Why not go over the heads of the political rent-seekers?  A man rides a cart in Phnom Penh, Sept. 2023. Credit: Tang Chhin Sothy/AFP This dynamic isn’t specific to Cambodia. In China and Vietnam, the defining policies of Xi Jinping and Nguyen Phu Trong, the two communist parties’ general secretaries, have been a mammoth crackdown on the private sector that reasserts the communists’ monopoly on power as part of vast anti-corruption campaigns. Why? Because authoritarian governments only have to be good at one thing: denying space for any alternative to their authority. But private sectors would be an alternative if they weren’t constrained, as seemed to be the case in both communist states before 2012, the year Xi and Trong came to power. Indeed, businesses and tycoons might start demanding the predictability of the rule of law and private property rights; they might want a direct say in politics; they might start to publicly criticize their political masters (think Jack Ma of Alibaba!); and they might protest by denying the state the taxation it needs to survive.  Splurging on titles How do you rectify this? You co-opt the private sector; you turn a blind eye to its dodgy actions; you create policies favorable to its advancement; you intermarry your political nobility with the economic elites; you arrest outspoken individuals for corruption to set an example of what happens if someone steps out of line. During its succession process this year, the CPP in Cambodia has tried to appease the private sector. It has splurged on the number of oknha titles it awarded; as of June 2023, there were 1,299 people with the honorific, although the number grew after the July general elections The number of land concessions and other corrupt practices also boomed. The Cambodia Oknha Association was launched in June by Cambodia’s most prominent tycoons, with Hun Sen as honorary president. Ostensibly a way for the ruling party to collect “charitable” donations, it is actually a way for the most powerful oknha to constrain their lessors and do Hun Sen’s bidding. Hun Manet’s government now has 1,422 secretaries or undersecretaries of state, more than double the number his father’s government had. Many of these positions are bought and allow the occupiers to extract patronage payments. Moreover, the new administration has vowed to run the country in a more technocratic and economic-minded manner.  A woman on a motorcycle laden with goods rides past a Rolls-Royce at a car dealership in Phnom Penh in 2014. Credit: Samrang Pring/Reuters The apparent insinuation is that it will focus on finances, not playing at geopolitics. It has maintained or appointed ministers whom the private sector trusts. Aun Pornmoniroth, the powerful finance minister, kept his job and is now the real architect of government policy. Sok Chenda Sophea, formerly the head of the Council for the Development of Cambodia, the government body tasked with attracting and managing foreign investment, is now foreign minister. Keo Rottanak, the new Minister of Mines and Energy, was managing director of the state-owned electricity provider Electricite du Cambodge. Chheang Ra, the new health minister, was director of the state-run Calmette Hospital. However, constraining the private sector and economic barons will become a lot more difficult. Things were easier in the past when the lifestyles of the political nobility were relatively cheap (a few billion dollars) and when the Cambodian state had a small budget that was primarily funded by foreign…

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Beijing tests Manila’s nerves in disputed reef

Editor07 mins

China was once again trying to block Philippine ships from delivering supplies to the troops stationed at the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea on Friday. Earlier in the day, “China Coast Guard (CCG) and Chinese Maritime Militia (CMM) vessels recklessly harassed, blocked, executed dangerous maneuvers in another attempt to illegally impede or obstruct a routine resupply and rotation mission to BRP Sierra Madre (LS 57) at Ayungin Shoal (Second Thomas Shoal),” the National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea said in a statement. The West Philippine Sea is the name that Filipinos use for waters claimed by Manila in the South China Sea. “CCG vessel 5203 deployed water cannon against Philippine supply vessel M/L Kalayaan,” it said. M/L, or motor launch, implies a small-sized, motor-powered boat.  The Kalayaan and another supply boat, the Unaizah Mae 1, were “also subjected to extremely reckless and dangerous harassment at close proximity” by Chinese vessels inside the shoal’s lagoon during their approach to BRP Sierra Madre, said the Philippine National Task Force.   “Nonetheless, both supply boats were able to successfully reach LS 57 (BRP Sierra Madre),” it said. “We condemn, once again, China’s latest unprovoked acts of coercion and dangerous maneuvers … that has put the lives of our people at risk.” Manila deliberately ran the World War II-era Sierra Madre aground in 1999 to serve as its outpost at the shoal and has to dispatch ships on a regular basis to deliver fresh supplies to the military personnel there. The Philippines’ rotation and resupply (RoRe) missions have recently been increasingly impeded and blocked by Chinese ships. Philippine ships were surrounded by a large number of Chinese vessels, Nov. 10, 2023. Credit: Ray Powell on X In a graphic provided by Ray Powell from the U.S. Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation, Philippine Coast Guard ships accompanying the two supply boats were surrounded by a large number of Chinese vessels. “In total, 24 Chinese ships were involved in the incident, including four Coast Guard ships. The rest were maritime militia ships,” Powell said. Continuing blockade “Beijing is testing Manila’s nerves,” said Malcolm Davis, a defense analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI). “China will keep on conducting such blockades with the hope that Manila will give up its RoRe missions but it won’t happen,” Davis told Radio Free Asia. When and how the United States, the Philippines’ treaty ally, will get involved remains to be seen, according to the analyst. By a mutual defense treaty, Washington is obliged to defend its ally in the case the latter is being attacked. The U.S. has repeatedly said that Article IV of the 1951 U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty “extends to armed attacks on Philippine armed forces, public vessels, and aircraft – including those of its Coast Guard – anywhere in the South China Sea.” The Chinese Coast Guard quickly issued a statement calling Manila’s mission “illegal.” Spokesperson Gan Yu said that “two small transport ships and three coast guard ships from the Philippines entered the waters adjacent to Ren’ai Reef (Chinese name for Second Thomas Shoal) in China’s Nansha (Spratly) Islands without permission from the Chinese government.” “The Chinese Coast Guard follows Philippine ships in accordance with the law, takes control measures, and makes temporary special arrangements for the Philippines to transport food and other necessary daily supplies,” Gan said. “The Philippines’ actions violate China’s territorial sovereignty, violate the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, and violate its own commitments,” he said, “We urge the Philippines to immediately stop its infringing actions.” For its part, Manila said the Philippine Embassy in China “has demarched the Chinese foreign ministry and protested” against China’s actions. As of Nov. 7, the Philippines has made 58 diplomatic protests against what it sees as China’s violations of its sovereignty in the South China Sea. Last month Manila summoned the Chinese ambassador to the Philippines to protest over two similar incidents, one of which led to a small collision of ships. Second Thomas Shoal is about 200 kilometers (124 miles) from the Philippine island of Palawan, and more than 1,000 kilometers from China’s Hainan island. It is claimed  by the Philippines, China, Vietnam and Taiwan, but is located inside the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Edited by Mike Firn and Elaine Chan. BenarNews is an RFA-affiliated online news organization.

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Interview: Opposition’s Operation 1027 in Shan State indicates ‘low point’ in Myanmar-China ties

Editor017 mins

On Oct. 27, the Northern or “Three Brotherhood” Alliance of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Arakan Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army launched “Operation 1027” – named for the date of the offensive. The groups simultaneously struck junta positions in the strategic Shan cities of Kunlong, Hseni, Chin Shwe Haw, Laukkaing, Namhkan, Kutkai, and Lashio, the state’s largest municipality. Since then, reports indicate that the alliance has taken some 150 military camps in battles throughout Shan state and caused alarm in the top military brass. The campaign will “break the country into pieces” if left unchecked, said junta chief Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing on Nov. 8. To understand the significance of Operation 1027, Radio Free Asia Burmese reporter Ye Kaung Myint Maung interviewed Jason Tower, the country director for the Burma program at United Stated Institute of Peace in Washington. Tower has decades of experience researching cross-border conflicts in Southeast Asia. Radio Free Asia: The Northern Alliance groups have advanced their campaign 1027, a military operation. And it was reported that they have captured more than 100 military outposts and even some important towns in northern Shan State, and some fighting has reached an area not far from where the military academy is located. What’s your overall take on Operation 1027? Tower: In my view, this operation potentially could really be a game changer in terms of the broader revolution and conflict in Myanmar. I think a lot of this in terms of the timing has to do with China’s growing dissatisfaction with the junta regime, because over the past five months you’ve seen where the junta not only has proven incapable of working with the Chinese to advance any of China’s economic interests. You’ve also seen it fail miserably in terms of providing support to China around security interests and cracking down on increasingly malign criminal actors who are harming a global population through scams and human trafficking – a lot of which are targeting Chinese nationals. And so you’ve seen … out of frustration, the Chinese side has cracked down in a pretty strong way on the United Wa State Army and on the National Democratic Alliance Army, even detaining high-level Wa leaders like Bao Jin Fang, the number two in the army, and issuing arrest warrants for two other leaders, really showing, I think, very clearly how serious the Chinese side is in terms of wanting the military to try to crack down on this activity.  And despite all of that pressure, the military still failed to act. So I think very clearly you saw they’re going to launch this operation. What’s very significant about it is just how quickly the Brotherhood has been able to take major cities within 24 hours of the announcement of the operation. In my view, this was not something that was done quickly. This was a plan that was coordinated over probably a month or more. This operation is a very serious operation. And in order for the Brotherhood Alliance to do this, it would need to have at least tacit support from the Chinese side. And I believe it did have this in this case. Now, what’s really interesting about it is the way the Brotherhood Alliances framed this around cracking down on the transnational criminal activity and liberating people from these scam centers. And that does seem to be what a lot of the initial targets are that you are seeing, now the Brotherhood Alliance groups and PDFs go in, identify some of these centers and liberate the scam centers. So you are seeing some of that happening. But of course, I think the bigger issue here is that in Koh Kong, all eyes of the Myanmar army, the four eco Kong clan families that represent the COCOM border guard force have refused to do anything to crack down on this because this is the main source of revenue and a major source of revenue also for the military. And so now you’re seeing the Brotherhood really take this into their own hands. I think the other major factor here is that on one hand, you know, the entire country is watching this operation and they’re seeing how weak the Myanmar army is. You know, Myanmar army troops are going in and they’re defecting immediately, giving all of their arms over to the Brotherhood alliance. … And I think this is emboldening everyone. It’s letting everyone sort of see just how weak the military has become and how illegitimate it has become. Because the ultimate reason why the Chinese greenlighted this operation is because the junta has failed to take any steps to crack down on this awful transnational criminal activity, which is harming the interests of Thailand, harming the interests of China, harming the interests of really every country around the world. So in that respect, I think this really a game changer, because we’re at a point right now where the Chinese side has really reached a kind of a low point in terms of its relationship with the military junta.  Radio Free Asia: We know that China has played a very important role in the armed conflict in northern Myanmar. And also China has strong ties with members of Northern Alliance groups. So in this case in particular, what led you to the conclusion that China has given the green light to start this military operation? Tower: I think that the reason why China is comfortable with this operation is because the operation is framed around doing exactly what the Chinese side has been telling the Myanmar army to do for the past four months. But what the Myanmar army has refused to do, which is to crack down on the criminal activity, take down these scam syndicates, free the victims of human trafficking and so on. And so that’s, you know, the justification that the Brotherhood is giving for launching this operation. And you do see where it has yielded…

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China dominates in overseas ports: report

Editor05 mins

China has built a global network of commercial ports overseas that helps Beijing wield economic power as well as expand naval activities, a new report said. The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) think tank released an interactive report Monday tracking China’s control of overseas ports, some of which could double up as naval bases. In 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping first announced a plan for the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road as part of his ambitious Belt and Road Initiative to boost global connectivity and China’s access to foreign markets as around 95 percent of China’s international trade is being conducted through sea lanes. Ten years on, Chinese entities have now acquired equity ownership or operational stakes in 101 port projects across the world, 92 of which are active. Beijing has signed 70 bilateral and regional shipping agreements with 66 countries and regions. “China operates or has ownership in at least one port in every continent except Antarctica,” CFR said. The network of sea ports that China owns and operates bears an increasingly strategic importance, not least because of its potential dual use.  Among the 92 active projects, 13 have a major Chinese ownership. Ten of them have suitable infrastructure for future military use. Potential naval use Some projects with dual-use potential where China owns a majority share are in Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Peru and Brazil. However, “the growing scrutiny from the West could mean that building naval bases is not an effective way for the Communist Party of China (CPC) and the Chinese government to project power globally,” the CFR report said. “The real leverage of the CPC and the Chinese government over the West is not necessarily in building newer and bigger naval bases,” the authors said, adding that “China’s leverage is in its varied degrees of investment and ownership in the world’s busiest and most-connected ports, which underpin the global flow of goods.” A Chinese construction worker stands on land that was reclaimed from the Indian Ocean for the Colombo Port City project in Colombo, Sri Lanka, Jan. 2, 2018. Credit: AP Photo/Eranga Jayawardena China has already invested heavily in some of the most connected countries in the world such as South Korea and Singapore.  “China’s heavy investment in the world’s most-connected ports highlights its strong influence over the supply chains of global trade,” CFR added. Besides the network of ports, China also owns the largest fleet in the world. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy currently has 370 ships and submarines, according to a recent report by the Pentagon. To compare, the U.S. Navy has 291 ships.  The U.S. Defense Department also estimated that China’s fleet will grow to 395 ships by 2025 and 435 ships by 2030.  Edited by Elaine Chan and Taejun Kang.

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Uyghur rights activist among those honored by King Charles III

Editor04 mins

A prominent Uyghur human rights activist, singer and interpreter was among dozens of activists honored at a reception at Buckingham Palace on Wednesday to recognize British contributions to humanitarian efforts around the world. King Charles III expressed his gratitude to Rahima Mahmut, founder and executive director of Stop Uyghur Genocide and the U.K. director of the World Uyghur Congress, for her work defending Uyghurs and other Turkic Muslims in China. The king said called work “a crucial undertaking” and thanked her for “the exceptional contributions you are making to this important endeavor,” Mahmut later told Radio free Asia. On her LinkedIn account, Mahmut said she was “thrilled and honored” to be representing the Uyghur community at the humanitarian reception. A native of Ghulja, or Yining, in Xinjiang, Mahmut decided to leave her homeland because of the massacre of Uyghur youth who had taken to the streets on Feb. 5, 1997, to protest the Chinese government’s discriminating policies against the predominantly Muslim people.  Mahmut has long been a vocal critic of the Chinese government, taking aim at the mass incarceration, surveillance and persecution of Uyghurs in Xinjiang and countering Beijing’s official propaganda from overseas. For more than two decades, she also has used her artistic talent as a singer to make the Uyghur voice known through music, while drawing the attention of the international community to the crisis in Xinjiang.  Mahmut, who has lived in the United Kingdom since 2000, has performed Uyghur songs at major concerts and cultural festivals in Britain, across Europe and in the United States. “As an [sic] Uyghur human rights activist, I have built a cross-party, cross-community coalition of UK-based activists working to end the genocide in my homeland,” Mahmut says on her LinkedIn profile, adding that she has been involved in high-profile parliamentary campaigns, including the Genocide Amendment to the U.K. Trade Bill, Parliament’s recognition of the Uyghur genocide, and the diplomatic boycott of the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics. Also in attendance at the reception were Saleh Saeed, chief executive of the Disasters Emergency Committee — a U.K. organization that brings together 15 top domestic aid charities to raise funds quickly and efficiently for overseas crises — British actress and activist Dame Joanna Lumley, actor and comedian Sir Michael Palin, and actor and director Adrian Lester, who all have launched appeals for the nonprofit.

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Investigative Journalism Reportika © March 2022 by Ij-Reportika is licensed under CC BY 4.0