Myanmar’s armed resistance rejects junta call for surrender

Myanmar’s armed resistance has dismissed an unprecedented call by the junta to surrender as a “sugar-coated offer” by a regime that must pay for its war crimes against civilians, as a new report found the military responsible for nearly 20,000 arson attacks since it’s 2021 coup. In a statement published in both Burmese and English by Myanmar’s state-run newspapers on Monday, the junta’s Information Team announced that all members of the armed resistance – including the pro-democracy People’s Defense Force (PDF) paramilitary group it has labeled a terrorist organization – will be allowed to return to civilian life if they willingly lay down their arms. The junta blamed “political adversaries and disagreements in ethnic affairs” for Myanmar’s internal armed conflicts, which it said had hampered development, and called for “unity” to heal the nation. “Those who were persuaded by terrorist groups … to commit acts of terrorism leading to the utter devastation of the country and launch armed resistance under various names of groups including PDF … affect the stability of the State and ensue delay in ways to democracy,” the statement said. “Therefore, it is here announced that the organizations, including PDF, are welcomed if they enter the legal fold [to return to] their normal civilian lives by surrendering their weapons, [and] following rules and regulations to participate in future work plans of the country.” Various armed resistance groups that have sworn loyalty to Myanmar’s shadow National Unity Government (NUG) told RFA Burmese that surrender to the junta is “impossible,” citing the devastation it had wrought on the country since the Feb. 1, 2021 takeover. Others said the military cannot be trusted and suggested that its call for surrender is a sign of weakness. “If we had thought surrender was a possibility at the beginning, we would never have started the revolution,” said a spokesman for PDF in Kayah state’s Demawso township, speaking on condition of anonymity. “We will never surrender. We’ll never trust the military which has ruled us for over 70 years and wants to brainwash us, no matter what they say.” A spokesman for the Myingyu township PDF in Sagaing region, who also declined to be named, said his group will also continue its fight against the military. “As far as we know, they are weakening. I think they are making this offer because they have suffered heavy casualties during their offensive in our township,” he said. “We blew up their convoys with landmines whenever they passed through our territory, and they suffered a lot. We will never surrender to them but fight to the end.” A member of the Chinland Defense Force, which was fighting the junta in Chin state before the NUG was formed in April last year, said his group had barely acknowledged Monday’s offer. “We have determined to wipe out the military dictatorship. That is why we have taken up arms against them and reached this stage,” he said. “Frankly speaking, we don’t even need to comment on their offer.” Myanmar’s military chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing (2nd from R) arrives for the fourth session of the 21st-Century Panglong Conference, Aug. 19, 2020.Credit: AFP Doubts over junta’s claims Naing Htoo Aung, shadow defense secretary, said the NUG will not consider the offer because the junta is “untrustworthy.” “It is unbelievable that these people, who are currently committing atrocities and killing innocent people and burning villages, have asked us to surrender our weapons and return to civilian life,” he said. “We all know that we cannot believe [this offer].” Naing Htoo Aung called Monday’s offer “sugar-coated,” and vowed to hold the junta responsible for the death and destruction it has sown over the past 16 months. The NUG claimed last month that it had already formed more than 250 battalions across the country and established links to more than 400 PDF units, suggesting it was more than capable of defeating the military regime. Sai Kyi Zin Soe, a Myanmar-based analyst, questioned why the junta would expect the PDF to disarm without removing the group from its list of terrorist organizations. “After all, it is difficult for people who have suffered because of the junta actions, to give up their weapons,” he said. “In this age, when news travels fast, the military cannot make up stories and fool people like the previous juntas.” Monday’s offer came days after U.S. State Department adviser Derek Chollet told reporters in Bangkok that the junta should return Myanmar to the path of democracy as it appears unable to crush the opposition. He also noted that the military has suffered heavy casualties in its fight with the resistance. Earlier this month, independent research group the Institute for Strategy and Policy (ISP Myanmar) said that it had documented more than 4,600 clashes between PDF units and the military as of May 15. More than half of them occurred in Kayin state, while the second most took place in Sagaing region. Junta chief Snr. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing in April called on Myanmar’s ethnic armed groups to hold peace talks and end armed conflict with the military, but he refused to meet with the PDF. The smoldering remains of Kebar village in Sagaing region’s Ayeyarwaddy township, Dec. 13, 2021. Nearly 20,000 houses razed The junta’s invitation to surrender also came less than a week after local watchdog group Data for Myanmar issued a report which found that junta troops and military proxy groups had burned down 18,886 homes across the country between last year’s coup and the end of May 2022. According to the report, villages in Sagaing were the hardest hit by the junta, with 13,840 houses destroyed, while those in Magway region and Chin state came in second and third. It said that 7,146 homes were set on fire in May alone – the highest monthly figure since the coup. Legal experts and analysts told RFA on Monday that the widespread use of arson against civilians amounts to war crimes and said the junta must be held…

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Statesman or shark bait?

After blanket denials that China is building a naval facility for its use at Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base, Cambodia is now saying Chinese forces will not have exclusive use of the structure at the Gulf of Thailand base. While the U.S. and other regional powers worry about China gaining its first naval staging facility in mainland Southeast Asia near the South China Sea, there are also concerns that Prime Minister Hun Sen will cede too much Cambodian sovereignty to a far more powerful partner that won’t take “no” for an answer.

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China sets information blockade after 6.0 magnitude earthquake hits Tibetan county

The Chinese government is imposing an information lockdown after a series of earthquakes in a Tibetan county in Sichuan province displaced more than 25,000 residents, RFA has learned. The initial quake, measuring 6.0 on the Richter scale, hit Barkam (Maerkang in Chinese), a county-level city in the Ngawa (Aba) Tibetan and Qiang Autonomous Prefecture, at 1:28 a.m. June 10, Beijing time, the China Earthquake Networks Center (CENC) reported. According to a state-run media report, the quake injured at least one person and 1,314 rescuers were dispatched to the area. An estimated 25,790 residents of the area were transferred and resettled. “Most of the houses [in affected areas] are destroyed and many have sustained extensive damage,” a source told RFA’s Tibetan Service Friday on condition of anonymity for security reasons. “Many people have been left injured, but I haven’t heard any death reports so far.” File photo of earthquake damage in Barkam county, Ngawa, Tibet. Photo: Citizen Journalist Another source told RFA that many of the homes still standing are now without electricity. “The number of fatalities and injured are unknown at the moment. However, the government has strictly instructed us not to share any pictures, videos and other information of the calamity on social media,” the source said on condition of anonymity for security reasons.  “The earthquake stuck in the middle of the night while it was raining heavily. Though it was frightening, many were able to step out of their houses for safety. But another earthquake measuring 5.8 magnitude and few small ones stuck again in the early morning hours,” said the source. Chinese media reported that rescuers had been dispatched, but the source said that they had not yet arrived when he spoked to RFA.  “The schools in Barkam county, where the earthquake stuck, have seen no help from the government and the students are still lying around their school’s playground. They even have to take care of their own food,” the source said. Residents of Barkam have been barred from posting reports, pictures and any other information about the quake, which has devastated houses, stupas and monks’ residences, a third source who requested anonymity to speak freely told RFA. File photo of the aftermath of an earthquake in Barkam county, Ngawa, Tibet. Photo: Citizen Journalist Many displaced people have had to find temporary shelter in tents, which the monks and townspeople have set up together. Government rescuers did not reach Barkam until Monday, three days after the initial quake. India’s National Center for Seismology reported two more earthquakes in Tibet on Monday — a 4.2 magnitude quake at 4:01 a.m. IST and a 4.5 magnitude quake at 11:49 a.m. IST. Both occurred in Gerze (Gaize) county, Xizang province. Earthquakes are common on the Tibetan plateau and last year a 7.3-magnitude quake struck Matoe (Maduo) county, killing 20 people and injuring 300.  RFA reported at that time that authorities had similarly blocked social media reporting, telling citizens to report injuries and deaths only to the government rather than sharing the information online. Translated by Tenzin Dickyi. Written in English by Eugene Whong.

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Two Vietnam villagers complete jail terms for deadly 2020 raid in land dispute

Two villagers who were jailed for “resisting officials on duty” during a deadly January 2020 police raid over a tense land dispute in northern Vietnam completed their nearly 30-month sentences and were released on June 9, one of the freed men said Monday. Bui Van Tuan and Trinh Van Hai were part of an initial group of eight residents of Hoanh hamlet in Dong Tam commune, about 25 miles south of Vietnam’s capital Hanoi who were arrested following a deadly clash between residents and police on Jan. 9, 2020 that left three officers and the village elder dead. On that day, about 3,000 officers intervened in a long-running dispute between villagers and developers over construction of a nearby military airport on nearly 150 acres of agricultural land they used. Police raided the homes of the residents, including that of village elder Le Dinh Kinh, shooting dead the octogenarian in his bedroom during the early morning attack. Kinh’s sons, Le Dinh Chuc and Le Dinh Cong, were sentenced to death on Sept. 14, 2020, in connection with the deaths of three police officers who were killed in the clash. After his release, Tuan told RFA on Monday that his health was fine and he had not been treated badly in prison. Tuan also said that after his unsuccessful appeal trial, authorities sent him to Thanh Phong Detention Center in Thanh Hoa province, where he performed forced labor. Hai, who was held at Detention Center No. 6 in Thanh Chuong district, Nghe An province, was released on the same day, but RFA could not reach his relatives for comment. Four other villagers are serving jail terms of 12 years to life on murder charges, while eight others are serving prison terms of 30 months to five years for “resisting officers on official duty.” Another 15 people were also charged with resisting officers, but received probation. Following the deadly clash, the My Duc district government built a fence around the disputed 59 hectares (146 acres) of land in Dong Senh, and the military built a high wall separating its land from the disputed land, a villager said at that time. International organizations have called on the Vietnamese government to conduct an independent and transparent investigation of the Dong Tam incident. In an earlier flare-up of the Dong Tam dispute, farmers detained 38 police officers and local officials during a weeklong standoff in April 2017. Three months later, the Hanoi Inspectorate rejected the farmer’s claims that 47 hectares (116 acres) of their farmland was seized for the military-run Viettel Group — Vietnam’s largest mobile phone operator — without adequate compensation. Though all land in Vietnam is owned by the state, land confiscations have become a flashpoint with residents, who have accused the government of pushing small landholders aside in favor of lucrative real estate developments and of paying insufficient compensation for their losses. Translated by Anna Vu for RFA Vietnamese. Written in English by Roseanne Gerin.

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Hundreds of Rohingya tried to flee Myanmar in past 6 months

More than 600 Rohingya Muslims from western Myanmar’s Rakhine state have been arrested over the last six months trying to reach Malaysia, an RFA analysis shows, part of an exodus of refugees who were driven by a lack of jobs and food to make a risky and sometimes deadly trek. RFA compiled the data from statements issued by military junta officials in Rakhine state and information from local media outlets. A Muslim man who lives in Maungdaw township, who did not want to be named for security reasons, said he sold all his belongings to send his daughter to Malaysia, but she was arrested on the way. “Our family agreed to marry our daughter off to a boy who is in Malaysia,” the man told RFA. “We asked him if he would pay for half the travel expenses. He agreed, and because we didn’t have 500,000 kyats [U.S. $270], we sold our land and house and other stuff to pay for her travel. Now, she’s been arrested, and we’ve lost everything. Our lives are ruined.” The daughter was aboard a boat with 228 others about 17 miles northwest of Mayu Island near Sittwe when they were was arrested by Myanmar authorities. More than 100 of the Rohingya passengers were sentenced to five years in prison by the Maungdaw District Court on Dec. 14 for violating immigration laws. Minors were released. In December, a total of 270 Rohingya were arrested for immigration law violations. Two dozen Rohingya were detained in January, 135 in February, 14 in March, 35 in April and 124 in May, for a total of 602 people. A Rohingya in Kyaukphyu township said Muslims were leaving Rakhine and risking arrest or even death because of a lack of jobs in the state and restrictions placed on them by authorities. Malaysia is a preferred destination because most of its residents are Muslim. “It has become easier for traffickers to exploit us,” he said. “The current problem in Rakhine is that people are not allowed to travel freely. There are also very few job opportunities to earn a living. We could not go outside because we were living in a refugee camp. That is why people are taking risks. They think they will prosper if they can make the trip.” Many are also motivated by food shortages in the camps in which the Rohingya are confined in Myanmar, Rohingya sources said. Rohingya living in Maungdaw township pay what is to them exorbitant sums to traffickers — a total of about 9 million kyats (U.S. $4,900), paid in stages along the route. Imminent danger Despite the costs, Rohingya still face imminent danger on their trek, which often involves travelling in rickety boats in rough seas. On May 21, at least 25 Rohingya out of about 90 passengers on their way to Malaysia died when their boat capsized and sank in the Bay of Bengal during a storm off the coast of Ayerarwady region. Myanmar authorities picked up more than 20 survivors, including the traffickers, on a beach the following day. A number of other Rohingya remain missing. Thai authorities arrested 59 Muslims from Myanmar and Bangladesh on June 4 on Koh Taung Island in the southern province of Satun after they were told they had reached Malaysia and disembarked. Tin Hlaing, a Rohingya from Thekkebyin village in Sittwe township who works on human trafficking issues, told RFA that some Rohingyas suffer abuse at the hands of their traffickers on the journey. “Some kids were so pitiful [because] the traffickers beat them up and sent a video to their families demanding that they pay the remaining 2 million, 3 million or 5 million kyats if they wanted their son or daughter to live,” he said. “Their parents, who also live in the IDP camps, had no money to pay,” he said. “What they did was sell their rooms or their rations coupons. Finally, they had no place to live and nothing to eat. They had to do that so their children would not die. We see such tragedies here.” RFA could not reach military regime spokesmen in Rakhine state or in Myanmar’s capital Naypyidaw for comment. Activist Nay San Lwin, cofounder of the Free Rohingya Coalition, noted that the stream of Muslims trying to illegally flee Myanmar is a result of the violation of their fundamental rights. “If you can work and live freely in your area, if there is stability and peace, no one will migrate,” he said. “All over Myanmar, people can travel freely by land or by water, but only the Rohingyas are not allowed to do so. Rohingyas are deprived of the use of waterways in their own birthplace. “They don’t have the right to live a normal life,” he said. “The deprivation of basic rights, such as the right to freedom of movement, is a serious violation of human rights.” Call for urgent intervention The Rohingya were placed in IDP camps in in Sittwe, Pauktaw and Kyaukphyu townships following sectarian violence between Muslims and Buddhists in 2012 and 2013. In 2017, Myanmar’s military conducted brutal clearance operations in Rakhine that forced more than 740,000 Rohingya, mainly in Buthidaung and Maungdaw townships, to flee across the border and into Bangladesh, where they now live in sprawling refugee camps. The United States in March said that the clearance operations constituted a genocide. Myanmar Ethnic Rohingya Human Rights Organization Malaysia issued a written appeal on Monday to the U.N. Human Rights Council to find a permanent solution to the Rohingyas’ plight. “[We] need the urgent intervention and peace from the outside world to change our fate,” the group said. “We cannot delay our ACTION as it will only allow more Rohingyas and people of Myanmar to die.” The organization asked world leaders, the European Union, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, Associations of Southeast Asian nations, and U.N. member states to appeal to the current regular session of the Human Rights Council, which runs until July 8, to find a…

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Chinese leader Xi Jinping signs new rules governing ‘non-war’ military operations

Chinese leader Xi Jinping has signed a directive allowing ‘non-war’ uses of the military, prompting concerns that Beijing may be gearing up to invade the democratic island of Taiwan under the guise of a “special operation” not classified as war. While Taiwan has never been governed by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), nor formed part of the People’s Republic of China, and its 23 million people have no wish to give up their sovereignty or democratic way of life, Beijing insists the island is part of its territory. Xi signed an order which takes effect June 15, state media reported, without printing the the order in full. “It mainly systematically regulates basic principles, organization and command, types of operations, operational support, and political work, and their implementation by the troops,” state news agency Xinhua said in a in brief report on Monday. “[It] provides a legal basis for non-war military operation,” it said. Among the six-chapter document’s stated aims are “maintaining national sovereignty … regional stability and regulating the organization and implementation of non-war military operations,” it said. The report came after Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky called for a diplomatic solution to the threat of military action in the Taiwan Strait. Speaking via video link at the Shangri-La Dialogue security forum in Singapore, Zelensky used Ukraine as an example, calling on the world to “always support any preventive action,” and called for diplomatic solutions to prevent war. Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida warned on Friday that “Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow,” Soldiers stand on deck of the ambitious transport dock Yimen Shan of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy as it participates in a naval parade to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the founding of China’s PLA Navy in the sea near Qingdao in eastern China’s Shandong province, April 23, 2019. Credit: AFP Changing attitudes after Ukraine Beijing-based political commentator Wu Qiang said Zelenskyy appears to be aligning himself with U.S. policy goals in the Asia-Pacific. “All countries are making these comparisons, but Zelenskyy is making a point of making them,” Wu said. “I believe he is reciprocating [in return for U.S. support]; he is supporting the strategic goals of the United States in the Indo-Pacific region.” “During the past few months, U.S. President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken have continued to emphasize that the long-term competitor of the U.S. in future will be China,” he said. He said Zelenskyy’s comments are also representative of a change of attitude in Eastern Europe and the EU to Taiwan, in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. “It’s more appropriate for him to represent this change in the EU’s position,” Wu said of Zelenskyy. Chen Chi-chieh, associate professor of political science at Taiwan’s National Sun Yat-Sen University, said Zelenskyy has been fairly careful to avoid provoking Beijing, however. “He is smart enough not to want to provoke China, so he can’t speak out very clearly on the Taiwan question, so he had to answer it in a subtle way,” Chen told RFA. He said there are many areas in which Ukraine relies on Chinese assistance, and will likely rely on it for post-war reconstruction. “Ukraine’s relationship with Taiwan isn’t that close, so he doesn’t need to sacrifice the relationship between Ukraine and China to support Taiwan, at least not very clearly,” Chen said. Austin also made it clear that the United States is still committed to maintaining the status quo across the Taiwan Strait, as well as its commitment under the Taiwan Relations Act, which requires Washington to help Taiwan to defend itself. The war in Ukraine  featured prominently during sessions at the Shangri-La Dialogue. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told participants that the invasion of Ukraine “indefensible,” and “a preview of a possible world of chaos and turmoil.” China’s Defense Minister Wei Fenghe delivered scathing remarks about the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy in a speech in Singapore on Sunday, calling it an attempt to form a clique to contain China. In his speech on “China’s vision for regional order” at the Shangri-La Dialogue security forum he hit back at Austin’s remarks a day earlier, saying China firmly rejects America’s accusations and threats. Wei said the Indo-Pacific strategy was “an attempt to build an exclusive small group to hijack countries in our region” to target one specific country – China. “It is a strategy to create conflict and confrontation to contain and encircle others,” said the minister, who is also a general in China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Chen said Wei is trying to prevent the U.S. from being too good an ally to Taiwan. “[Beijing] wants to deter Taiwan from getting too close to the United States, and also hopes that the United States will stop selling arms to Taiwan, especially advanced weaponry,” Chen said. “That’s why they are using such harsh words.” But Wu said Wei doesn’t hold a very powerful position in the Chinese military establishment. “Wei Fenghe is not even a member of the CCP’s Politburo, but plays quite a secondary role,” Wu said, adding that bilateral dialogue between Wei and Austin at the Shangri-La Dialogue could yield little of substance because it wasn’t a meeting of equals or counterparts. Translated and edited by Luisetta Mudie.

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Thousands rally to mark 3rd anniversary of 2019 anti-extradition protest in Hong Kong

Thousands of exiled Hongkongers and allies marked the 3rd anniversary of the 2019 Hong Kong protest movement in cities around the world at the weekend, with a large crowd gathering on Parliament Square in London to mark the first anniversary of mass public protests on June 12, 2019. Some 4,000 protesters gathered in London gathered at Marble Arch, marching to Parliament Square to chant slogans including “Free Hong Kong! Revolution now!”, which has been banned under a draconian national security law in Hong Kong. Exiled former pro-democracy lawmaker Nathan Law said people’s goals weren’t all the same, but that Hongkongers in exile would still work together. “Some people want an armed revolution, the liberation of Hong Kong, and independence for Hong Kong,” Law said. “We have also heard how we might use culture to change a society.” “We imagine different paths to reach the goal, but we all share the same values,” he said. “We are diverse, we don’t have only one voice, and we don’t have only one way to express what we want.” “This diversity can be complementary, and coexist without any of us being subordinate to each other or telling each other what to do, but with the community responding to everyone when needed,” he said. In Liverpool, drone footage showed a line of dozens of people along a busy shopping street, dressed in the black of the 2019 protest movement, and carrying the yellow umbrellas of the democracy movement. At the London rally, participants were asked to remember the 10,277 people arrested and the 2,800 prosecuted under the national security law, which was imposed on the city by the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) from July 1, 2020, ushering in an ongoing crackdown on peaceful political opposition and public dissent. The rally marked the mass protest that blockaded Hong Kong’s Legislative Council (LegCo) on June 12, preventing lawmakers from getting into the chamber to pass a hugely unpopular legal amendment that would have allowed the extradition of alleged criminal suspects to mainland China. The protest was the first of many to be quelled that year by widespread police violence that saw the firing of tear gas and rubber bullets on an unarmed and peaceful crowd, many of whom were unable to flee, as well as mass arrests and physical beatings of mostly young people. Teargas memories A young man who was there at the time, and who now lives in the U.K., said he still has vivid memories of the day. “When I got there, all I could smell was the harsh and pungent smell of tear gas,” the man, who gave only the nickname Karson, told RFA at the London rally. “The people were surrounded by [police firing] tear gas, and there was no way for us to leave.” “I remember the police saying at the time that they wanted the crowd to disperse, but they also tear gassed protests that had [police approval], and … prevented people from leaving,” he said. “That sort of action in a crowded place caused people to trample each other.” Karson, who is in the difficult process of applying for political asylum, said others shouldn’t be discouraged, as there are organizations set up to help asylum-seekers from Hong Kong. A Hongkonger who arrived in the U.K. with his family over a year ago, who gave only the surname Chan, was also in Parliament Square, joining in with a mass rendition of the Les Miserables hit “Do You Hear The People Sing?”, which was often sung during the 2019 protests. Chan said his family had agreed the night before that they should all attend to support Hong Kong, now that they live overseas. “I want to tell our brothers and sisters in Hong Kong prisons that we have not forgotten you or given up on you,” Chan told RFA. “We are still very worried about you and care about you, and hope you are safe and well.” Mrs Chan said she is keen not to forget the protest movement, and the subsequent crackdown imposed by Beijing. “I felt that I needed to keep the momentum going, so that I don’t forget what happened,” she said. “This isn’t over, and I want to see it through.” The Chans’ 11-year-old daughter Kimmy said she is in the process of explaining to her classmates what has befallen Hong Kong in recent years. “I will tell them the story of the Hong Kong people, from the Umbrella Revolution [of 2014] to the present and try to take the fight to the international front,” Kimmy said. “Maybe, if more people know about it, Hong Kong can be restored [to the way it was], I hope.” Speak up when being bullied An older woman, also surnamed Chan, said she had come to the rally after living in the U.K. for decades. “I think it’s very important to deliver on one’s promises and not just to talk big,” she said. “As you can see from my slogan, we just want to get back what we deserve: it’s that simple.” “I think if people are bullying you, and you are unhappy about it, you have to speak up.” Similar rallies were held across the U.K. on Sunday, including Liverpool, Manchester and Nottingham. Manchester police took away a man in a red shirt who started playing the Chinese national anthem during the rally in the city. Hongkongers and their supporters also rallied on the democratic island of Taiwan. Some 700 people set off from Elephant Park in Taipei, many of them wearing black clothing and shouting 2019 protest slogans, as well as slogans calling on the authorities to defend Taiwan against CCP infiltration and aggression. “There’s nothing that people in Hong Kong can do right now [because of the national security crackdown], so we who are overseas should do a bit more,” a protester surnamed Chan told RFA. “It’s important to keep these memories going now that we are in a place of relative safety.” Another protester surnamed Chow said he had…

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Could China’s zero-COVID policy spur a mass protest movement?

As the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) continues with large-scale and long-term lockdowns on major cities, mass incarceration in quarantine camps and on university and college campuses, coupled with blanket digital surveillance and control over people’s movements, some signs of mass discontent have begun to emerge. Shanghai entrepreneurs called in a May 30 open letter for the release of all political prisoners and for the CCP to begin a process of political reform at the 20th Party Congress later in the year, warning of mass capital flight and a widespread loss of public confidence in Xi Jinping’s leadership. The letter also called on the government to overturn the guilty verdicts against entrepreneurs Ren Zhiqiang and Sun Dawu, as well as punishing officials responsible for “violating the law and disregarding public opinion” as part of the zero-COVID policy and loosening CCP controls on the media. Public anger at the policy was glimpsed during the Shanghai lockdown, as residents clattered pots and pans from the relative safety of high-rise balconies, sang protest songs composed for the occasion, or yelled anonymous protests into the night air. A Shanghai resident who gave only the nickname Ceausescu said the lockdown had likely forced a lot of people to think about politics. “Most people were locked up at home, and they couldn’t even buy food for a while at first, so they had to think about it three times a day,” he said. “Normally, people from Shanghai, people in the middle classes, wouldn’t have to think about such things … they would definitely have felt that their rights had been violated.” The deprivation of personal freedom, loss of control over economic activity, and no guarantee even of basic subsistence would have caused many people to start thinking more about politics, even those who were previously uninterested in the topic, Ceausescu said. “I think if young people are unable to go about their lives in peace, they will definitely stand up,” he said. Some have wondered whether the feisty attitudes of sophisticated Shanghainese with their keenly developed sense of middle-class entitlement translate readily to other parts of the country. Protests involving hundreds of students have sprung up at university campuses in Beijing and Tianjin following months of draconian COVID-19 restrictions imposed on higher education institutions. The scenes at Tianjin University, Beijing International Studies University and Beijing Normal University were eerily reminiscent of the early stages of the 1989 student movement, which later took over Beijing’s Tiananmen Square for weeks on end with demands for democratic reforms and the rule of law. Similar protests had sprung up at the Wuhan University of Science and Technology and Sichuan University in March. But, possibly due to the proximity of the sensitive June 4 anniversary of the Tiananmen massacre that ended the nationwide pro-democracy movement, the authorities appear to have largely given the students what they wanted: the right to take online classes at home, and to return to campus only to sit exams. University protests, clockwise from top left: Beijing International Studies University, May 8, 2022; Peking University, May 14-15; Beijing Normal University, May 24; and Tianjin University, May 26. RFA collage. Xi taking China backwards A Shanghai resident born in the year of the Tiananmen Square protest movement, who gave only the pseudonym Li Bing, said the students had clearly decided to take their fate into their own hands. “I think they chose to protest on campus because it had become very clear to them that you have to fight for your rights; that nobody is going to just hand them to you,” Li told RFA. But he said he wasn’t sure if he would join a similar protest, despite the privations of lockdown in Shanghai’s Pudong district. “Of course I want to resist, but when the call came, I am pretty sure [I wouldn’t].” Li is no stranger to public dissent. He once reposted a list of the victims of the Tiananmen massacre issued by the Tiananmen Mothers victims group. The move brought him a slew of threatening phone calls from local officials, imprinting the shadow of fear firmly on his mind. A Henan resident who graduated from college just a year ago, and who gave the pseudonym Zhou Xiao, had no hesitation, however. He expects some form of mass popular uprising against the CCP in the next few years, largely spurred by zero-COVID and the government’s program of forced vaccinations. “Vaccines have been administered on a large scale in the past two years,” Zhou said. “Anyone who reported side effects had their posts deleted and their accounts blocked.” “Nobody really knows what side-effects there could be from the vaccine … I was forced into getting vaccinated because of my work,” he said. According to Zhou, the CCP under Xi had already been going backwards in terms of freedom of expression even before the pandemic emerged in Wuhan in 2020. “I’m totally disappointed,” he said. “Most obviously, the suppression of speech is getting worse.” Zhou expects public anger to translate into action at some point in the next few years. “The big one is coming, and I feel that this regime will face huge problems within the next 10 years, due to various factors causing a chain reaction,” he said, citing the economic hardship caused by the government’s response to the pandemic. People stand in line at a COVID-19 testing site in Beijing on June 9, 2022. Thousands of testing booths have popped up on sidewalks across Beijing and other Chinese cities in the latest twist to the country’s “zero-COVID” strategy. Credit: AP Indifference Wang Juntao, U.S.-based chairman of the China Democracy Party (CDP), which is banned in China, said now is the likely time for protests to emerge, however. “From my experience of the student movements of the 1980s, they were all sparked by particular real-life problems,” Wang said. “They started slowly, in dribs and drabs.” “It was hard at first, but then the students started to see their own strength, and it got easier and easier as more students joined them,”…

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ASEAN states unlikely to choose sides between US and China, say officials and experts

When Cambodia’s Minister of National Defense General Tea Banh was seen taking a leisurely dip in the Gulf of Thailand with Chinese Ambassador Wang Wentian after a ribbon-cutting ceremony for a Cambodian naval base being built with China’s help earlier this month, no one in the region batted an eyelid.  As U.S.-China friction is getting more intense, Phnom Penh seems to have tilted towards its big neighbour, which has been offering cash and assistance to not only Cambodia but other nations in Southeast Asia. “Cambodia and China aren’t good at hiding their relationship,” said Virak Ou, President of Future Forum, a Cambodian think tank. “It’s obvious that we are choosing sides,” he said. Yet most countries in the region so far remain reluctant to pick sides, and analysts say it is crucial that Washington realize the need to engage Southeast Asian nations in its Indo-Pacific strategy, or risk losing out to Beijing. Cambodian Minister of Defense Tea Banh and Chinese Ambassador Wang Wentian are seen swimming following Ream Base groundbreaking ceremony in Sihanoukville. Credit: Tea Banh’s Facebook page. Right to decide own destiny At the Shangri-La Dialogue security forum in Singapore, Tea Banh lashed out at what he called “baseless and problematic accusations” against the Cambodian government in relation to a naval base that Phnom Penh is developing in Ream, Sihanouk Province, with help from Beijing. The Ream Naval Base provoked much controversy after the U.S. media reported that Hun Sen’s government was prepared to give China exclusive use of part of the base. It would be China’s first naval facility in mainland Southeast Asia and would allow the Chinese military to expand patrols across the region. “Unfortunately, Cambodia is constantly accused of giving an exclusive right to a foreign country to use the base,” the minister said, adding that this is “a complete insult” to his country. Cambodia, he said, is a state that is “independent, sovereign, and has the full right to decide its destiny.” As usual, the Cambodian defense chief refrained from naming countries involved but it is clear that both the U.S. and China are vying for influence over the ten-nation Southeast Asian grouping. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in his remarks at the Shangri-La forum stated that “the Indo-Pacific is our center of strategic gravity” and “our priority theater of operations.” But questions remain on where smaller Southeast Asian nations feature in that grand strategy of the United States. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin (L) stands with Vietnam’s Defense Minister Phan Van Giang during a bilateral meeting ahead of the Shangri-La Dialogue summit in Singapore, June 10, 2022. Credit: AFP Lopsided cooperation The region, noted Indonesia’s Minister of Defense Prabowo Subianto, “has been for many centuries the crossroad of imperialism, big power domination and exploitation.” “We understand the rivalry between the established world power and the rising world power,” he said, implying the United States and China. Prabowo, who joined the military in the thick of the Vietnam War and retired at the rank of Lieutenant General, told the audience at the Shangri-La Dialogue that Southeast Asian countries are “the most affected by big powers’ competition.” Despite divisions and differences between member countries, “we’ve come to our own ASEAN way of resolving challenges,” he said. It may seem that “we’re sitting on the fence,” Prabowo said, but this seeming inaction reflects an effort of preserving neutrality by ASEAN countries.  “Indonesia opted to be not engaged in any military alliance,” the minister said.  The same stance has been adopted by another ASEAN player – Vietnam– whose White Paper on defense policy stated “three nos” including no military alliances, no basing of foreign troops in the country and no explicit alliances with one country against another. Yet it’s unlikely that Hanoi, often seen as anti-China as Vietnam has experienced Chinese aggression at many occasions in history, will embrace the U.S. to counter Beijing.  “It’s better to nurture a relationship with a close neighbor rather than relying on a distant sibling,” Vietnamese Defense Minister Phan Van Giang explained, quoting a Vietnamese proverb. Two of ten ASEAN nations – the Philippines and Thailand – are U.S. treaty allies. But even in Manila and Bangkok, there have been signs of expanded cooperation with China. “Southeast Asia and China are neighbors thanks to the geography, and their cooperation is natural,” said Collin Koh, Research Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. Koh suggested that in order to maintain the foothold in the region, “the U.S. need to embrace and appreciate local cultures and not try to force regime changes.” “The cooperation between the U.S. and the region has been too one-dimensional and lopsided, too security focused, and needs to expand,” he said. China’s Defence Minister Wei Fenghe attends the opening reception at the Shangri-La Dialogue summit in Singapore, June 10, 2022. Credit: AFP Limited leverage “Southeast Asia is a difficult region for the U.S. to grasp,” said Blake Herzinger, a Singapore-based defense policy specialist. “The region needs to foster ties with China and Washington needs to accept and work with that,” Herzinger said, adding that it’s time to recognize that “U.S. leverage is limited in a competitive region where the opposite number is China.” According to Southeast Asia analyst Koh, “it’s not too late for the U.S. to adjust its policy towards Southeast Asia.” “There are still demands for an American presence here and a reservoir of goodwill that the U.S. has built over the past,” Koh said, but warned that “this may risk running dry if Washington doesn’t truly recognize the importance of engagement in the region.” The U.S. and allies should also bear in mind regional geopolitical calculations, he said. “Southeast Asian countries don’t want to pick sides but they find themselves being sucked into the super power competition and being pragmatic as they are, some of them are making efforts to try to benefit from it,” Koh said. “I think the Biden administration has done a good job in relation to Southeast Asia…

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U.S. attempting to ‘hijack countries in our region’ to target China, Wei Fenghe says

China’s Defense Minister Wei Fenghe delivered scathing remarks about the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy in a speech in Singapore on Sunday, calling it an attempt to form a clique to contain China.  In his speech on ‘China’s vision for regional order’ at the Shangri-La Dialogue security forum he hit back at U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin’s remarks a day earlier, saying China firmly rejects America’s accusations and threats. In his keynote speech on Saturday, Austin said that China had adopted a “more coercive and aggressive approach to territorial claims” and that Beijing’s moves “threaten to undermine security, stability and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific.” In his remarks Wei said that “to us, the Indo-Pacific strategy is an attempt to build an exclusive small group to hijack countries in our region” to target one specific country – China. “It is a strategy to create conflict and confrontation to contain and encircle others,” said the minister, who is also a general in China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA). This is the second time Wei has attended the major regional security forum, hosted by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). This year’s conference, which resumed after a two-year suspension due to COVID, is taking place amid the war in Ukraine, increased tensions around Taiwan and in the East and South China Sea. ‘Say no to bullying’ The forum once again highlights U.S.-China rivalry in the Indo-Pacific, with both sides trading criticisms, while at the same time calling for the rule of law to be upheld.  “We should respect each other and treat each other as equals and reject a zero-sum game in which the winner takes all,” General Wei said. “We should seek peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation rather than hegemony and power politics.” ‘Hegemony’ seems to be the word of choice when Chinese officials talk about the United States and its foreign policy. As the U.S. defense secretary insisted that his country’s military “will fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows,” the Chinese minister called the U.S. freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea a “navigation hegemony.” Wei said the U.S.-China relationship is at a “critical and crucial juncture” but to improve it depends on Washington’s efforts. “We require the U.S. side to stop smearing and containing China, stop interfering in China’s internal affairs and stop harming China’s interests,” Wei said. “The bilateral relationship cannot improve unless the U.S. side can do that,” he said, adding: “If you want to talk, we should talk with mutual respect … if you want confrontation, we will fight to the very end.” At the same time, the Chinese minister called on regional countries to “say ‘no’ to bullying.” “Only the one who wears the shoes knows if they fit or not,” he said, implying that countries should pick their own paths and resist what he called “interference” from outsiders. Two Su-35 fighter jets and a H-6K bomber from the People’s Liberation Army air force fly in formation during a patrol near Taiwan on May 11, 2018. CREDIT: Xinhua via AP China’s only choice The Chinese defense minister resorted to forceful words when speaking about Taiwan, insisting: “Taiwan is first and foremost China’s Taiwan.” Reiterating that Taiwan is a province of China, Wei said the island’s reunification with the mainland “is a historical trend that no one, no force, can stop.” “This is the only choice for China,” he said. The minister accused Washington of violating its promise on the ‘One China principle’ by supporting the “separatist forces” in Taiwan and playing the Taiwan card against China. “China is firmly opposed to such acts… the pursuit of Taiwan’s independence is a dead end,” Wei said, adding “we will not hesitate to fight” to defend China’s core interests. This year the PLA celebrates the 95th anniversary of its foundation and the Chinese defense minister dedicated a segment of his remarks to speak about the PLA which he called a “force of peace.” “We have never proactively started a war against others or occupied one inch of other’s land,” Wei said.  The Chinese defense minister said those who question the factual truth behind this statement “should re-read history.”

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