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Category: Russia
Tourist rubles ensure warm welcome for Russians in Thailand
>>> Read the more on Bear East Ask any Russian person which country in Southeast Asia they have heard about and you’d probably hear “Thailand.” Russian tourists are crowding its beaches, bars and even its Orthodox churches. That’s not just a sign of Thailand’s legendary reputation for hospitality and knack for catering to foreign visitors that has earned the country the moniker “Land of Smiles.” Thailand welcomed 11.4 million foreign tourists in 2022. But with Russians increasingly limited on where they can visit because of international restrictions imposed on Moscow relating to the war in Ukraine, Thailand has kept its doors open. From Russia with love On the southern island of Phuket, some areas have turned into something resembling a resort town on the Black Sea with Russian men and women lounging on the beach, trying to soak up as much sun as possible. There are signboards in Cyrillic, Russian mothers pushing strollers around and new Russian restaurants that offer a taste of home. Russian real estate agents, tour companies and even Russian tour guides cater to the visitors – which rankles locals in the tourist trade, who say they are losing business. “Russian people love Thailand, the people, the climate, the nature and the delicious food,” gushed Olesya, a young Russian businesswoman. She and her husband, Denis, have been to Phuket five times. Tourists take photos on Patong Beach in Phuket, June 20, 2023. Credit: Tran Viet Duc/RFA Olesya said they felt welcome here and “have not sensed any negative vibes” against Russians – although they were shy of speaking to a journalist and requested to be identified by their first names only. Thailand is America’s oldest ally in Asia, and was for decades a bulwark against Soviet influence in Southeast Asia during the Cold War, but it’s also a nation with a storied past with Russia. Diplomatic relations date back 126 years, when the then-Kingdom of Siam’s modernizing monarch, Chulalongkorn, also known as King Rama V, traveled to St. Petersburg in 1897. Despite the international maelstrom over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Thailand has not condemned Moscow and has abstained from several votes against Russia at the United Nations. But perhaps more significantly, there are still ways for Russians to spend their money in Thailand, which relies heavily on tourism earnings. Due to U.S. and U.K. sanctions, Russians can’t conduct transactions via the global SWIFT electronic payment system. But they can still use China’s UnionPay – the world’s largest card payment network – or use cash or cryptocurrencies. Shops catering to Russian tourists have sprung up in Pattaya, Thailand, June 22, 2023. Credit: Tran Viet Duc/RFA Cornering the condo market The Thai Tourism and Sports Ministry said that between January and June this year nearly 800,000 Russian nationals visited the Kingdom, and the number is expected to reach more than 1 million by the end of the year. The Tourism Authority of Thailand has set an ambitious target of receiving 2 million Russian visitors in 2024. Half of them are expected to fly to Phuket. A free 45-day visitor visa and direct flights between the two countries make the goal easier. Maetapong “Oun” Upatising, president of the Phuket Real Estate Association, says that the Russian market bounced back quickly after the COVID downturn, both in tourist numbers and property demands. Russian visitors prefer to rent villas and condominiums instead of hotels when staying longer than three months, and the number of rental units in Phuket alone is more than ten thousand a month, he said. There is also a growing number of rich Russians who obtained long-term resident visas that let them stay in Thailand for five to 10 years or more. Those so-called “elite visas” cost at least U.S.$20,000 yet the number of elite visa holders from Russia is increasing steadily. Between 5,000 and 10,000 wealthy Russians are thought to have obtained long-term visas and become residents in Phuket. Last year Russian buyers purchased nearly 40% of all condominiums sold to foreigners on the island, according to the Thai Real Estate Information Center. Russian investors also put large sums of money into other types of properties, among which luxury villas are the top buy. Those villas come with hefty price tags, starting from 25 million baht ($730,000), according to Maetapong from the Phuket Real Estate Association. Anton Makhrov [left], editor of Novosti Phuketa newspaper, and Jason Beavan, general manager, are seen in their office in Phuket, June 19, 2023. Credit: Tran Viet Duc/RFA Organized crime Phuket even has its own Russian newspaper. Despite the comparative ease with which Russians can travel to Thailand, the paper’s editor gripes that his countrymen get a bad rap. “Right now, it’s legitimate not to like the Russians,” said Anton Makhrov, the editor of Novosti Phuketa, who likens it to a kind of xenophobia against Russians in Thailand. “When you get on Facebook, you’ll see lots of comments such as ‘the Russians are aggressive and arrogant, we don’t like you’ but when you talk to people they all say they have good relations with some Russian friends,” he said, speaking in the weekly paper’s office in a small alley in Kathu district of Phuket. Russian visitors have also often been blamed for bad behavior, as well as petty crime such as drunk-driving and theft. The invasion of Ukraine in 2022 also appears to have dimmed Thais’ perception of Russian people. Katherine Aliakseyeva, principal of the Russian Dance Academy “Katyusha” in Bangkok, says she’s worried about the safety of her staff and students. The school has been regularly taking part in cultural events organized by the Russian Embassy. There are also long-held suspicions that Russian “mafia” operate in Thailand. A December 2009 cable by the U.S. Embassy in Bangkok that was declassified in 2019 said that “Russian organized crime circles established a presence in Thailand in the 1990s after the collapse of the Soviet Union.” According to the diplomatic cable, U.S. and Thai law enforcement agencies reported that “criminal networks composed of mostly…
Kim Jong Un’s sister hints nuke weapons are non-negotiable
Kim Jong Un’s influential sister ramped up Pyongyang’s pressure campaign against the United States, indicating that she would not put the country’s nuclear weapons in negotiations with Washington. “The sovereignty of a sovereign state can never be a subject of negotiation, and therefore, we will not sit down with the United States due to this issue,” Kim Yo Jong said in a statement, according to North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency Thursday. North Korea has long linked its nuclear weapons program to its state identity of self-reliance – Juche ideology – as well as to matters of the nation’s sovereignty. “If the U.S.’s definition of ‘peace through strength’ means talking about dialogue upfront while wielding military power behind the curtains, then we must also be prepared for both dialogue and confrontation, especially being more thoroughly prepared for confrontation,” Kim Yo Jong said. “This is our consistent stance towards the U.S.” The influential sister of North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un often emerges as the face of Pyongyang’s pressure campaigns, typically delivering hardline messages against the U.S. and its allies. Her appearance on Thursday, her first public statement in about four months, came just days after the U.S. ambassador traded barbs with North Korea’s representative at the U.N. Security Council on Monday. North Korean Ambassador Kim Song criticized the U.S. in New York for being hostile to his country, as he defended Pyongyang’s launch of its satellite. North Korea launched its spy satellite last week in violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions. U.S. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield, however, said that the U.S. and its allies’ joint military exercises – which Pyongyang claims as hostile – are defensive in nature, emphasizing that these exercises cannot justify the North’s violation of Security Council resolutions. She added that Washington wants sincere dialogue with Pyongyang without any preconditions. Responding to the U.S. ambassador in the U.N., Kim Yo Jong said that her logic was “weak, fallacious, and shameful,” denying the “sovereign rights of the DPRK,” referring to North Korea’s formal name. Kim Yo Jong’s remarks are essentially aimed at preventing regime backers, China and Russia, from deviating from their positions in defending North Korea on the international stage, said Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul who had advised South Korean governments for years. “It appears that North Korea’s ultimate strategy is to frame the U.N. Security Council as a domain dominated by what-it-calls the U.S. hegemony. This approach aims to render the Council’s functions ineffective and secure a justification for evading sanctions against North Korea,” Yang added. The sister’s remarks carry a dual message, subtly reiterating Pyongyang’s stance on “conditional” dialogue, the pundit noted. Kim Yo Jong seems to “indirectly suggest the possibility of dialogue with the United States, but only following the abandonment of what North Korea perceives as a hostile policy towards it.” Edited by Elaine Chan and Mike Firn.
Chinese navy drops anchor in Myanmar for joint drills
Three Chinese naval vessels have arrived at Thilawa Port in Yangon for joint drills with Myanmar’s navy amid insurgent conflict along the neighboring nations’ shared border, according to the country’s military and pro-junta media reports. Nearly 700 sailors with a Chinese naval task force landed at Myanmar’s largest city on Monday aboard the destroyer Zibo, frigate Jingzhou and replenishment vessel Qiandaohu to take part in a maritime security drill and a goodwill visit, the Commander-in-Chief of Defence Services website said. Details about the date, location and format of the drills were not made publicly available. Junta Deputy Information Minister Major-General Zaw Min Tun categorized the visit as typical of two “strategic partners” who have “established a strong friendship between militaries.” But the arrival of the three vessels comes amid bilateral tensions stemming from a surge of conflict in northern Myanmar along the border with China since late October. Senior Myanmar naval officers [right] welcome members of the Chinese navy upon their arrival at Thilawa Port in Yangon, Myanmar, Monday, Nov. 27, 2023. (AFP/Myanmar’s Military Information Team) In the month since the “Three Brotherhood” Alliance of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Arakan Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army launched an offensive on Oct. 27 dubbed “Operation 1027” the rebels have made notable gains against the military in several key cities in Shan state in the country’s northeast. The alliance claims to have captured more than 170 military outposts since the start of the campaign. In an address to the National Defense and Security Council on Nov. 8, junta chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing said that the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, or MNDAA, has been using drones to attack the military, which he noted “can easily be bought in China.” Not long after, pro-junta supporters staged a protest in front of the Chinese Embassy in Yangon, accusing Beijing of supplying arms to the Three Brotherhood Alliance. In the meantime, China’s People’s Liberation Army on Nov. 25 began conducting live-fire drills in southern Yunnan province near the border with Shan state. Chinese state media has run footage of the drills involving armored vehicles, artillery shelling and small arms fire, saying they are aimed at “safeguarding national sovereignty, border stability and the lives and property of the people against repercussions from civil war in northern Myanmar.” Shoring up ties Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-based analyst of Myanmar affairs, told RFA Burmese that the visit is meant to reinforce the trade relationship of the two neighboring nations amid the border conflict. “The military recently raised an anti-Chinese voice, but now has praised the tour of Chinese vessels as a success in diplomatic relations,” he said. “China has made a lot of investments in its business across the world. It is also a major trade partner of more than 100 countries. So, China is seeking to maintain good relationships with its trade-partner countries.” Political and military commentator Aung Myo, a former officer in the Myanmar military, told RFA that China’s visit is meant to show support for the junta. “China has made a visit of navy vessels to offer their guarantee of a constructive, strategic relationship with Myanmar, and it is likely meant to relieve junta suspicions that China is involved in the armed conflict in northern Shan state,” he said. “Another message is to show that the influential power of China is standing with the [military] and its supporters.” Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army troops examine the recaptured Nansalet military camp on Nov. 25, 2023. (The Kokang) However, political commentator Than Soe Naing noted that the joint drills were scheduled before the start of Operation 1027 in northern Shan state, suggesting they are not meant to signal support for the junta. “The visit of the navy vessels is likely to be part of a goodwill tour and does not indicate Chinese support for the junta in its armed conflict,” he said. “China has expressed an unwillingness to take any sides – either that of the military or the resistance forces – while calling for peace dialogue.” On Oct. 27, the day that Operation 1027 began, China’s foreign ministry called for dialogue to end the conflict. Since then, there have been several high-level meetings between Chinese and junta officials in both China and Myanmar that have included talks on the fighting in Shan state, but clashes have continued, and the analysts RFA spoke with say there is no end in sight. Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army forces recaptured Nansalet military camp on Nov. 25, 2023. (The Kokang) Attempts by RFA to contact the Chinese Embassy in Yangon for comment on the drills and the state of Myanmar-China relations went unanswered Tuesday, as did requests for comment to junta officials. From Nov. 7-9, junta troops conducted drills alongside around 800 sailors and three destroyers from the Russian navy in the Bay of Bengal near Myeik township in southern Myanmar’s Tanintharyi region. Translated by Aung Naing. Edited by Joshua Lipes and Malcolm Foster.
S Korea, Japan, China fail to set summit date, condemn N Korea
South Korea, Japan, and China have not only failed to agree on a date for a landmark trilateral summit of their leaders, but also in jointly condemning North Korea’s latest illegal satellite launch, exposing the widening gaps in reinvigorating that three-party cooperation. The foreign ministers of the three nations did not hold a joint press conference on Sunday, after their first ministerial talks in four years – a rare occurrence that could signify the differing diplomatic stances among these key Asian geopolitical entities. “The countries have reaffirmed their agreement to hold the summit, the apex of their cooperative framework, at the earliest mutually convenient time,” South Korea’s Foreign Minister Park Jin said in a solo briefing after the trilateral meeting with his Japanese and Chinese counterparts, Yoko Kamikawa and Wang Yi in the South’s port city of Busan. A South Korean government source, who asked for anonymity due to sensitivity of the matter, told Radio Free Asia that the joint press conference did not take place as Wang had pre-arranged plans. The person did not elaborate. According to a separate South Korean government official who spoke to RFA prior to the meeting, the primary goal of the ministerial meeting was to set a date for the trilateral summit. The last trilateral summit took place in 2019 in Chengdu, China. “Efforts will be made to ensure that the summit takes place soon,” Park said, without specifying an exact date. The South Korean minister mentioned his proposal for the three countries to reactivate their intergovernmental mechanism as a means to fortify the framework of trilateral cooperation. However, he did not clarify whether this proposal was agreed upon by all parties. Whether China would want to continue the trilateral summit platform has become questionable as its emergence as a global power has relatively lessened its focus in the region. The increasing collaboration of South Korea and Japan under the trilateral framework with the United States also has been a source of discomfort for Beijing. In fact, with South Korea’s current conservative Yoon Suk Yeol administration, Seoul has been more vocal in criticizing China on the international stage – with concerns ranging from Beijing’s decision to repatriate North Korean defectors back to the Kim Jong Un regime to China’s coercive behavior towards the democratically self-governed island of Taiwan. North Korea The three ministers also failed to issue a joint statement in condemning North Korea’s latest provocation, a departure from previous trilateral foreign ministers’ meetings which usually included a consensus on security issues in the Korean peninsula. “I emphasized that North Korea’s recent so-called military reconnaissance satellite launch, along with its ballistic missile launches and nuclear development, are among the greatest threats to peace and security in the region,” Park said during his solo briefing, without saying what has been agreed with his Japanese and Chinese counterparts. North Korea launched a satellite last Tuesday, despite international warnings. Rocket technology can be used for both launching satellites and missiles. For that reason, the U.N. bans North Korea from launching a ballistic rocket, even if it claims to be a satellite launch. The lack of a joint statement is a sharp contrast with the trilateral foreign minister meeting among the U.S., South Korea and Japan in San Francisco, in which the three called the military cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow, including Russia’s technological aid to help the North Korean launch, a “serious threat to international peace and stability.” Unlike previous occasions, when China’s foreign ministry often expressed its regrets, Beijing refrained from issuing a public criticism of North Korea’s latest launch, as the strategic value of Pyongyang has been raised due to intensifying U.S.-China relations. North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency on Saturday claimed that its satellite passed over Hawaii and observed “a naval base in the Pearl Harbor, the Hickam air-force base in Honolulu,” as well as South Korea’s Busan.
Foreign ministers wield new brooms in Cambodia and Thailand
Shortly after being appointed Thailand’s new foreign minister in early September, Parnpree Bahiddha-Nukara made a telling remark: “We want the Thai people to feel that the foreign ministry is contributing to their lives.” Sok Chenda Sophea, Cambodia’s new foreign minister, appointed a few days before Parnpree, told his new ambassadors: “All of you should work to represent the nation and enhance the Kingdom’s prestige, especially in areas like diplomacy, economics, food, sports and the arts. These are the focus of the new government’s foreign policy.” The two new foreign ministers bear a striking resemblance. Neither are career diplomats. Parnpree, whose father and grandfather were prominent in the foreign ministry, instead rose through the ranks of the commerce ministry under the Shinawatra sibling’s governments and then became chairman of the state oil company PTT. Thailand’s Foreign Minister Parnpree Bahiddha-Nukara arrives at the government house in Bangkok, Thailand, Sept. 5, 2023, to take his oath of office. Credit: Sakchai Lalit/AP Sok Chenda cut his teeth in the tourism ministry in the 1990s. Parnpree served as chairman of the Thailand Board of Investment. Sok Chenda was head of the Council for the Development of Cambodia, the country’s investment board, from 1997 until this year. Parnpree was head of a negotiation team for the creation of a free trade zone with India. Sok Chenda headed the Cambodian Special Economic Zones Board. Parnpree studied public administration at the University of Southern California. Sok Chenda studied economics at the University of Aix en Provence. Moreover, both are unlike their predecessors. Don Pramudwinai, a career diplomat and foreign minister under the years of Prayut Chan-ocha’s military-run government, was often accused of putting geopolitics, chiefly relations with Beijing, ahead of more balanced, economics-focused policy, as well as for conducting “cowboy diplomacy” over the Myanmar crisis that badly dented ASEAN unity. Another charge against Don was that, because he was appointed by a junta that had just taken power in a coup, he “spent a large part of his time explaining when, how, and to what extent his country would return, or has returned, to democracy.” As Benjamin Zawacki added, “His tenure has been marked by a conservative and defensive posture rather than one of enterprise or ambition.” Similar accusations have been leveled at Cambodia’s former foreign minister. Prak Sokhonn, who was quick to lash out against the perceived Western interference in Cambodia’s domestic affairs, was more aligned with Beijing than some officials in the economic ministries liked, and, one hears, not entirely trusted by the former prime minister Hun Sen. Indeed, Hun Sen is believed to have ignored Prak and the foreign ministry by condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Economics at the center Parnpree and Sok Chenda are new brooms, appointed to refashion their ministries away from a defensive posture on their relations with China and a fixation with stoking geopolitical tensions, and towards a more sustainable, front-foot policy that puts economics at the center. As one Thai newspaper put it, Parnpree is “expected to impart a new momentum to the country’s foreign policy with a strong emphasis on exploring economic dimensions of bilateral and multilateral relationships.” A Cambodian analyst has argued, “To maintain economic development, Cambodia cannot become subject to US or Western economic sanctions. Maintaining economic development may be Cambodia’s main priority under the leadership of Prime Minister Hun Manet. This appears to be the case with the appointment of Sok Chenda Sophea as the minister of Foreign Affairs.” These ideas aren’t radical. Surakiart Sathirathai, Thailand’s foreign minister between 2001 and 2005, sought to create “CEO ambassadors”. Surin Pitsuwan, a predecessor, established a “Team Thailand” approach, with diplomats supposed to represent the nation as much as the foreign ministry. But the return to a more stable, stripped-down foreign policy makes sense as Thailand and Cambodia undergo political change. Hun Sen speaks at a press conference at the National Assembly after a vote to confirm his son, Hun Manet, as Cambodia’s prime minister in Phnom Penh, August 22, 2023. It is said that Hun Sen did not entirely trust his foreign minister, Prak Sokhonn. Credit: Cindy Liu/Reuters Thailand has its first civilian, democratically elected government again for more than a decade. Cambodia has just undergone a once-in-a-lifetime generational succession of its ruling elites, with almost the entire old guard resigning in August to make way for a younger generation, mostly the children of that old guard. Neither Parnpree nor Sok Chenda are big characters. Indeed, they’re rather bureaucratic. And they are on the senior end of the age spectrum. At 66, Parnpree is one of the oldest in the new Thai cabinet. Sok Chenda, aged 67, is the oldest of Cambodia’s important ministers. (He’s 20 years older than the PM.) They are also excellent counterparts to their prime ministers. Srettha Thavisin, the Thai premier, is a businessman at heart. Although Hun Manet rose through the ranks of the military, he studied economics and played a guiding role in the companies owned by his wife. Parnpree and Sok Chenda appear happy to defer much of the more razmataz foreign policy, such as showing up for international summits, to their prime ministers. Srettha, the self-styled “salesman”-in-chief, clearly likes traveling around the world and meeting foreign leaders, and posing for rather ingratiating and embarrassing selfies with them. Cambodia’s ruling party obviously wants Hun Manet to be front-and-center of Cambodia’s engagement abroad, a role similar to the one played by his father. As such, having nose-to-the-grindstone foreign ministers makes sense alongside globetrotting premiers. Experienced foreign policy thinkers In part, too, the two new foreign ministers are also designed to appease the private sectors, especially as Cambodia and Thailand have untested and unsteady governments; Thailand in the form of an odd coalition and Cambodia with its dynastic succession of Hun Manet and almost the entire cabinet. It’s not quite the Biden administration’s evocation of a “Foreign Policy for the Middle Class” but it’s not far off. How the new foreign ministers translate their briefs into action remains to be seen. In…
Russian soldier in Ukraine discusses North Korean weapons in video
Video of a Russian soldier in Ukraine talking about ammunition supplied by North Korea surfaced on social media this week, apparently debunking denials by Pyongyang and Moscow that the isolated East Asian country is supplying weapons for the war there. A video titled “Multiple rocket launcher (MRL) extended-range shells kindly provided by North Korean comrades have arrived in the NVO zone,” was shared on Nov. 12 on a Telegram channel called Paratrooper’s Diary, which contains frequent posts from Russian troops fighting in the northern front in Ukraine. The video shows a Russian soldier standing in front of a pile of rockets. “Our friends gave us a new type of ammunition similar to the twenty-second,” the soldier said in a possible reference to the rocket’s designation of R-122. “They travel farther distances and hit the target with higher accuracy. The victory will be ours.” If the weapons are indeed North Korean, it would be proof that Russia is in violation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1874, which prohibits arms trade with North Korea. The prospect that the rockets were provided by North Korea is very likely, David Maxwell, vice president of the Center for Asia Pacific Strategy, told RFA Korean. “These MRLs are ubiquitous,” Maxwell said. “Since the weapons are so common and so heavily used for indirect fire against tactical Ukrainian targets, the Russians are likely going through their ammunition stocks rapidly and thus need resupply from North Korea.” The rockets in the video were also identified as North Korean by military blogger War Noir on X. “The rockets appear to be rare R-122 HE-FRAG rockets with F-122 fuzes. These are produced and supplied #NorthKorea/#DPRK,” a Nov. 8 tweet by War Noir, which contained the same video, said. RFA previously reported that the same blogger had identified North Korean weaponry used by Hamas fighters in attacks on Israel last month. Russian denials Though both Pyongyang and Moscow have denied that North Korea is supplying Russia with weapons for use in Ukraine, this is not the first time that evidence to the contrary has surfaced. In October, the Ukrainian weapons analysis group ‘Ukraine Weapons Tracker’ released photos showing the Russian military using North Korean-made artillery shells in a tweet on X. But on Tuesday, a spokesman for the Kremlin, Dmitry Peskov, said at a press conference that allegations that Russia was using North Korean weapons were “completely groundless.” “[The allegations] have not been confirmed by anything,” he said. North Korea has also dismissed the idea, calling it an “absurd manipulation of public opinion.” The United States is deeply concerned about “the expansion of military cooperation between North Korea and Russia,” U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said on Tuesday. “North Korea is providing lethal weapons to Russia.” Meanwhile, South Korea’s Ministry of Unification was also critical of the apparent uptick in military cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow at a press briefing last month. “North Korea has repeatedly denied arms trade with Russia, but related circumstances are coming to light one after another,” the ministry’s spokesperson Koo Byoung Sam said. “The true nature of North Korea, which has deceived the entire world, is being revealed to the world.” RFA sent a message to the administrator of the Telegram channel to confirm the veracity of the video which is saying that the Russian military received North Korean weapons but did not receive a response. Translated by Claire Shinyoung Oh Lee. Edited by Eugene Whong and Malcolm Foster.
APEC 2023: Xi heads for US in closely-watched summit with Biden
Even as the world watches keenly as China’s President Xi Jinping meets his American counterpart Joe Biden on Wednesday, expectations of what could transpire in a climate of fraught bilateral relations marred by a tech war and regional tensions are modest. Xi is heading to San Francisco where he is due to meet Biden on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, the first time in a year since the two met in Bali, Indonesia. Some experts, while not anticipating a change in the trajectory of the U.S.-China relationship, are hopeful that the talks will deliver some results such as the formal resumption of military-to-military relations. Diplomatic and commercial dialogues between the two have resumed after the downing of the Chinese balloon earlier this year, pointed out Zhang Baohui, director of the Centre for Asian Pacific Studies at Lingnan University. “The two sides have even begun strategic dialogues on nuclear and maritime issues. However, the U.S. wants to reopen military to military dialogues to prevent inadvertent incidents. This meeting between the top leaders should remove the hurdle for military-to-military exchanges. “If so, this should be a significant development as the world is very concerned by the prospect of military conflicts between the two countries in sensitive areas like the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea,” Zhang said. To be sure, the White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters on Monday that both sides will discuss strengthening communications and managing competition responsibly so that the U.S.-China relationship “does not veer into conflict” during the summit. “The way we achieve that is through intense diplomacy,” said Sullivan. He added that there are areas where “interests overlap,” such as efforts to effectively manage competition that could be done by reestablishing military-to-military communications. Incremental outcomes If there were any outcomes to come from the Xi-Biden summit, Ian Chong, a political scientist from the National University of Singapore believes they would be “incremental, but nonetheless important” to maintain the momentum of expanding dialogue. “Such effects will not be seen immediately after the meeting. Rather, they may unfold as more areas come under discussion in the following months to inject more predictability into the U.S.-PRC relationship to avoid unintended escalation, even as competition continues,” Chong said, referring to China’s formal name, the People’s Republic of China. “Xi probably seeks to press the PRC’s case on Taiwan and the South China Sea, while probing the U.S. on trade and technology and seeking more predictably in the bilateral relationship,” he noted. “Biden will likely reiterate U.S. positions on Taiwan and the South China Sea, while seeking more stability in the bilateral relationship. They may try to gauge each other’s positions on the Israel-Hamas conflict, Russian aggression in Ukraine, climate, and AI.” U.S. President Joe Biden meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 leaders’ summit in Bali, Indonesia, November 14, 2022. (Source: Reuters) Another area of contention that is expected to be discussed is semiconductors in light of the recent chip export ban by Biden, alongside the push for generative AI in both the U.S. and China, observed James Downes, head of the Politics and Public Administration Programme at Hong Kong Metropolitan University. “The key achievable issues or goals will likely relate to the ongoing tech war between both countries,” said Downes. “The Biden-Xi Summit will be much more successful if both sides focus on economic issues, as opposed to long-term and divisive geopolitical issues.” According to Lingnan University’s Zhang, Xi will no doubt pressure the U.S. to relax technology denial measures against China, but he believes the U.S. is unlikely to yield on this issue. “Technological competition constitutes a central place in the overall U.S. competition strategy,” he explained. Zhang believes that Xi will try to persuade Biden to return the relationship to cooperation, away from strategic competition, seeking a U.S. commitment that it does not support Taiwan’s quest for independence. Biden, in contrast, will seek to stabilize the competition to prevent “conflict” by pursuing more measures to build “guardrails” for its competition with China, like the resumption of military-to-military dialogues. “The US will assure Beijing that it will follow the One China principle. Nonetheless, deepening security cooperation between Washington and Taipei will continue to bother Beijing and lead to contentious relations with the US.” Seeking specific outcomes Meanwhile, Sullivan said the U.S. is looking for specific outcomes in the overlapped areas of interests from the summit, which include efforts to combat the illicit fentanyl trade and discussion between the two leaders on critical global issues such as Russia’s war against Ukraine, and the evolving crisis in the Middle East. Given China’s stance on the Middle East conflict, there may be a potential that the leaders may agree-at-large, in expressing the importance of peace in the region. China’s deputy permanent representative to the United Nations, Geng Shuang, said in New York on Monday that establishing peace in the region was an important task for Beijing. However, it could be challenging for Biden and Xi to release a joint agreement on criticizing Hamas as Beijing has traditionally shown a less sympathetic stance on Israel, when compared to that of the U.S. This difference in diplomatic approaches may complicate the leaders in reaching a more detailed consensus on the Israel-Hamas war. In fact, according to Xinhua News Agency, Geng expressed “shock and concern” over statements made by Israeli officials regarding nuclear weapons usage in Gaza Strip, labeling the Israeli remarks as “irresponsible and troubling.” While Geng condemned the idea of using nuclear weapons, largely aligning with the international community and the Non Proliferation Treaty principles, the senior diplomat did not specifically address or criticize the actions of Hamas, which have led to civilian casualties. Edited by Mike Firn and Taejun Kang.
Israel-Hamas war: How tech, social media spur misinformation
The adage “The first casualty when war comes is truth” remains as relevant today as it did when the U.S. Sen. Hiram Johnson first said it more than a century ago. The recent conflict between Israel and Hamas serves as a reminder of how truth can be overshadowed by falsehoods and propaganda during times of war. In the month since violence erupted, a second invisible battle has emerged online. Both sides are involved in spreading disinformation and fake news. Old images are being passed off as new. Video game footage is presented as reality. Credible news outlets like The New York Times have faced backlash over flawed reporting. While disinformation campaigns are nothing new in war, their efficiency today is unparalleled. Advances in AI have made it cheaper and simpler to generate deceptive, but convincing fabrications. As a result, impartial audiences find themselves grappling with the challenge of distinguishing fact from fiction. Faced with this flood of propaganda, numerous reports have examined its impact on domestic and international audiences. AFCL has reviewed several of these reports, highlighting how technology and social media enable online users and governments to take advantage of religious divides and cultural intolerance by spreading misinformation. The findings paint a troubling picture of truth obscured and tensions inflamed by the digital tools of modern war. AI muddles fact and fiction The weaponization of AI is muddying the waters of truth in the Israel-Hamas conflict. As revealed by Reuters, several viral images purporting to show support for Palestians or Israelis were actually AI-generated fakes, for instance, and these are only a tip of the iceberg. A widely shared image of Israeli citizens hanging flags off balconies was proven to be generated by AI. (Original image saved by Reuters Fact Check team, annotated by AFCL) Furthermore, advanced “deepfake” technology has enabled the creation of fabricated footage, such as a video of the U.S. President Joe Biden claiming he would send American troops to aid Israel. More dangerous than the false information itself, experts warn these AI fabrications sow doubts about even verifiable facts. As one AI researcher told The New York Times: “The real power of this technology is how it undermines truth and trust.” In an already polarized conflict, these insidious digital deceptions risk inflaming tensions by making truth itself seem unknowable. ‘Verified users’ lead in spreading misinformation Social media platforms have become hotbeds of misinformation amid the Israel-Hamas war. Services like X, formerly known as Twitter, are rife with unsubstantiated claims and outright falsehoods disseminated by both anonymous and supposedly “verified” users. On these digital battlegrounds, propaganda and lies gain traction faster than truth. One illustrative example comes from X user “Sprinter.” Originally blocked for spreading pro-Russian disinformation, Sprinter was reinstated under Elon Musk’s ownership and granted a blue verification checkmark. The user then falsely claimed the Wall Street Journal had reported that U.S.-made bombs were dropped on Gaza’s AI-Ahli Hospital. Ironically, this false claim received nearly six times more views than the American daily’s genuine tweet about the story earlier that day. According to internet monitoring group NewsGuard, nearly three-fourths of the 250 most popular tweets containing misinformation in the first week of conflict were posted by verified users. Jack Brewster, one of the authors of the report, told AFCL that unlike past wars which involved large amounts of automated accounts, he believes “overwhelmingly real individuals” are behind the current wave of disinformation. The X user Sprinter (right), spread misinformation that The Wall Street Journal had reported an attack on a Gaza hospital was conducted with U.S.-made artillery shells. X afterwards annotated the post to include a rebuttal of the claim by the WSJ itself. (Screenshot/Sprinter’s and official WSJ X accounts) Business model for monetization In their quest to maximize revenue, social media platforms have instituted business models that reward viral lies over verifiable facts, and experts warn these profit-driven decisions fundamentally undermine platforms’ role as trusted spaces for public discourse. NewsGuard cited X’s new business model as an example. X users who subscribe to a premium account can obtain the blue checkmark while also having their posts prioritized in other users’ feeds. The company further announced in July 2023 that premium users with at least 500 followers who received 5 million impressions on their posts within three months would be eligible for ad profit-sharing. Mike Caulfield, a specialist in social media and disinformation at the University of Washington, told AFCL that online misinformation will become more prevalent as long as businesses can profit from it. Leveraging social media Beyond the direct combatants, social media users across the world leverage platforms to advance favored narratives about the Israel-Hamas war. Their agenda-driven posts flood networks with biased misinformation. Pro-Hamas voices spotlight Gaza hospital bombings to paint Israel as evil, a disinformation expert told Reuters, while pro-Israel users accuse Palestinians of faking injuries to discredit their suffering. Even supposedly neutral parties take sides online. The Digital Forensic Research Lab, a division of the Atlantic Council, found that at least 25 X accounts claiming to be located in India coordinated posting identical tweets and videos about the conflict at nearly the same time. Though mostly pro-Israel in content, some accounts bizarrely shared pro-Palestine messages shortly after pro-Isreal messages. By flooding platforms with contradictory claims, these users advance their own agendas, irrespective of consistency or truth. The Digital Forensics Research Lab found multiple X accounts claiming to be based in India had released coordinated posts containing identical disinformation about the war. (Screenshots taken from The Digital Forensic Research Lab) Despite its large Muslim population, anti-Muslim sentiment among India’s Hindu majority runs high. Islamophobic rhetoric backed by the country’s ruling right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party and current Prime Minister Narendra Modi is creating anti-Palestinian attitudes and a flood of misinformation during the current conflict, according to an Al Jazeera article. Meanwhile, misinformation coming out of Indonesia is heavily pro-Palestinian. As Voice of America analysis found, the country’s Muslim majority population and widespread pro-Palestine views among Indonesian leaders shape social media narratives…
Hamas official says North Korea could attack US over Gaza war
North Korea is part of a coalition of countries allied with Hamas and could attack the United States over the war in Gaza, a senior Hamas official said, praising Kim Jong Un as the “only one” capable of carrying out such a strike. “The leader of North Korea is, perhaps, the only one in the world capable of striking the United States. He is the only one,” Ali Baraka said during an interview posted Nov. 2 with a Lebanese YouTube channel Spot Shot, the Washington-based Middle East Research Institute reported. “The day may come when North Korea intervenes because it is, after all, part of [our] alliance,” he said. With the outbreak of war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, Baraka said that states that frequently experience friction with the United States or who consider Washington to be an enemy are coming together as allies. “All of America’s enemies in the region are consulting and getting closer, and the day may come when they join the war together, and turn America into a thing of the past,” he said, suggesting that the United States would go the way of the Soviet Union, which collapsed in 1991. Baraka said that Russia is in daily contact with Hamas, and that a Hamas delegation traveled to Moscow and will soon travel to Beijing. He also said that Iran – an ally of Hamas – does not have the capability to strike America, although if it decides to intervene, it could strike Israel or American bases in the region. “Iran does not have weapons that can reach America, but it can strike Israel and the American bases and ships in the region, if the U.S. clearly expands its intervention,” he said. Last month RFA reported that Hamas appears to have used North Korean weapons in its surprise attacks on Israel, a fact later confirmed by the Israeli military. Palestinian militants carrying what appears to be a North Korean F-7 rocket propelled grenade launcher [with red band] drive back to the Gaza Strip, Oct. 7, 2023. Credit: Ali Mahmud/AP Attack unlikely While Pyongyang has publicly declared its support for Hamas, attacking the United States over the war in Gaza – or any future conflict in the Mideast – is very unlikely, several U.S.-based experts told RFA Korean. “I don’t take these comments very seriously because Kim Jong-Un is not going to risk his own neck to help Hamas,” said Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow of the foreign policy program at The Brookings Institution. David Maxwell, the vice president at the Center for Asia Pacific Strategy told RFA that a combined Hamas and North Korean attack was unlikely and Pyongyang was using the conflict in Gaza to condemn the United States. From North Korea’s perspective this “is part of its normal blackmail diplomacy.” Still, North Korea working with Hamas poses a threat, said Patrick M. Cronin, the Asia-Pacific security chair at the Hudson Institute. “While [Pyongyang] has little interest in the Hamas agenda of eradicating Israel, it also has few inhibitions about helping enemies of its adversaries should there be something in it for the Kim regime,” he said. “America and our allies need to be vigilant about possible technology transfer, about opportunistic provocations in multiple regions, and about ensuring our allies know they have our full support, but we also need to find diplomatic opportunities to weaken the natural seams between the members of an axis of evil before it coalesces further.” North Korea expressed its support for Palestine last month through the official state-run Rodong Sinmun newspaper, saying that the war between Israel and Hamas was caused by Israel. On Nov. 5, it criticized the United States for its military support for Israel. Kim Jong Un, the country’s supreme leader, also recently ordered to find a way to support Palestinians, including by selling weapons to Middle East militant groups, the Wall Street Journal reported. Translated by Claire Shinyoung Oh Lee. Edited by Eugene Whong and Malcolm Foster.
Australia and China: Besties again? It’s complicated
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese wrapped up a three-day trip to China Tuesday, calling for the “full resumption of free and unimpeded trade” in a meeting with counterpart Li Qiang. The previous day, he held wide-ranging talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, covering everything from Tasmanian Devils to New Zealand wine, not to mention improving relations with Australia’s largest two-way trading partner in goods and services. In the next step towards mending the previously fraught relations and stabilizing them, Albanese told reporters in Beijing on Tuesday that both sides have agreed on practical steps to advance dialogue in areas of common interests, including climate change, trade and people-to-people links. He also said he raised the plight of detained Australian writer Yang Hengjun – although he provided no details about his possible release – and human rights issues within China, in a move that highlighted the controversial nature of the trip in Australia. It was the first visit to China by an Australian prime minister since 2016, with the two sides visibly making an effort to reframe a relationship marred by disputes on trade, human rights and the COVID-19 pandemic during the tenure of the previous prime minister Scott Morrison. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese delivers his speech at the opening ceremony of 6th China International Import Expo and the Hongqiao International Economic Forum in Shanghai on Sunday, Nov. 5, 2023. Credit: Jin Liwang/Xinhua via AP “It is wise for Labor to ‘stabilize’ the relationship with China,” Han Yang, a former Chinese diplomat turned political commentator, told Radio Free Asia. Albanese has been the leader of the Labor Party since 2019. “Australia is a middle power. It’s not in Australia’s interest to pick a quarrel with China, a superpower and its largest trading partner. ‘Cooperate where we can and disagree where we must’ is the right mantra to approach the relationship,” Yang said. Chinese misjudgment? Yang pointed out that Canberra did not make major strategic concessions, nor was it simply acting on the orders of the U.S. as some pro-China activists have argued. “It’s worth noting that Australia didn’t concede on any national security strategic goals. AUKUS is pushing on,” he said, referring to the trilateral security partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States in the Indo-Pacific region. Australia’s ban on Huawei remains, as does its anti-foreign interference law. “What has changed is the tone, and China got the message. “That is why it welcomed Albo with a red carpet,” Yang said, referring to the Australian prime minister’s nickname. “If you look at the foreign ministry read out, it gives significantly more space to Xi’s speech compared to meetings with other second-tier power world leaders.” Another China watcher Gerry Groot, senior lecturer in Chinese Studies at the University of Adelaide, told RFA that whatever transpired from Albanese’s meetings with the Chinese leaders was driven more by Australia’s own policy than American interests. “It’s Chinese actions and demands in the South China Sea and South Pacific – Australia’s own backyard – which are so alarming to Australian politicians and defense planners,” Groot said. Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese visits the Temple of Heaven in Beijing, China, November 6, 2023. Credit: AAP Image/Lukas Coch via Reuters He said he believed that Chinese strategic analysts had miscalculated the effect of weaponizing economic relations with Australia to drive a wedge between the U.S. and Australia or force more concessions, as well as punish the previous Morrison government for its anti-China stance.. “The grudging concessions on some of these sanctions have come about because the cost to China’s reputation internationally was greater than anticipated and the impact on Australia in economic terms was less, while at the same time driving relations with America closer,” he said. Exiles push back Australia’s relationship with China is made more complex by the fact that it is home to probably tens of thousands of exiles from China who have fled due to human rights violations, ethnic or religious oppression, or personal safety. “I think Albo’s China visit is morally corrupt, economically miscalculated and contradictory to Australia‘s national security interests,” exiled Chinese artist Ba Diucao told RFA. “Morally it is unacceptable to keep doing business as normal with a regime like China amid ongoing genocide against millions of Uyghurs and [while it is] supporting Russia’s invasion in multiple ways. “Also, an Australian citizen Yang Hengjun is still in jail as a political hostage in China,” Ba Diucao added. The writer was detained in 2019 while visiting family and charged with espionage. Some Uyghurs and Tibetans living in Australia, such as Ramila Chanisheff, president of the Australian Uyghur Tangritagh Women’s Association, reject any deals with the “devil.” Chanisheff told RFA that she and Tibetan representatives had petitioned against Albanese’s visit to China in Canberra ahead of the trip. “I think it was when we learned that Albanese was taking 400 trade reps [representatives] to China that it hit us the hardest. One Tibetan colleague of mine said she found it triggering,” she said. “Of course, as Australians, we feel shame at what happened to indigenous Australian youth, forced education etc, but now we’re facilitating a massive state that is doing the same in East Turkestan and Tibet.” Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese meets with China’s President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, November 6, 2023. Credit: AAP Image/Lukas Coch via Reuters Groot added, “While PM Albanese is beaming in his photos with CCP General Secretary Xi, we can only hope it is because the Chinese side has decided that more concessions to Australia are needed and perhaps that Yang Hengjun will be released shortly, rather than the grandeur of the occasion.” “In the meantime,” he added. “Gordon Ng [an Australian citizen charged with subversion] languishes in a Hong Kong jail on trumped up retrospective charges also.” Edited by Mike Firn and Elaine Chan.
