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Category: East Asia
Close call as Chinese ships again harass Philippine ships in Manila’s EEZ
The Chinese ships began to swarm around the BRP Cabra soon after 7 a.m. on Friday, sailing uncomfortably close to and hemming in the Philippine Coast Guard ship as it escorted civilian boats toward Ayungin Shoal. A China Coast Guard ship, with bow number CCG 21616, was the first to arrive on scene some 10 nautical miles (18.5 km) from the shoal located in South China Sea waters within the Philippines exclusive economic zone. A BenarNews correspondent and other reporters, who were given special permission to travel aboard the Cabra and another coast guard ship for the resupply mission, witnessed the tense moments at sea. Similar scenes where Chinese ships acted aggressively had played out lately during previous Philippine missions to deliver supplies to the BRP Sierra Madre, a rusty old navy ship that serves as Manila’s military outpost at Ayungin (Second Thomas) Shoal. “Philippine vessel, you are approaching the waters of China. To avoid miscalculation and misunderstanding, please inform your intention,” the China Coast Guard ship radioed to the BRP Cabra at around 6:30 a.m. The Cabra radioed back, saying it was “conducting lawful routine maritime patrol within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone in accordance with international and Philippine laws.” “Request to stay clear from our passage in accordance with collision regulations,” the radio operator said from the Cabra’s bridge. About 30 minutes later, at least three other CCG ships and vessels from China’s maritime militia fleet joined the fray. The Chinese ships then executed maneuvers to try to impede the civilian boats’ passage that Philippine Coast Guard officials described as dangerously close. A CCG vessel, with bow number 21551, repeatedly tried to cut the Cabra’s path to separate it from one of the supply boats. After failing to overtake the Cabra from the right side, CCG 21551 then sped up to overtake it from the left side. As the Chinese ship executed this maneuver, it sailed toward the Cabra and then abruptly stopped only three to five meters (9.8 to 16.4 feet) from the Philippine ship, PCG officials said. During the standoff, at least a dozen more radio exchanges as well as challenges and counter-challenges ensued between the Philippine and Chinese ships. “Your behavior has infringed upon [the] authority, security, and interest of China. I warn you, please leave the area immediately. Any consequences will be borne by you,” a voice from CCG 5305, the largest of the China Coast Guard ships present, warned the Cabra’s crew. After being separated from their PCG escort ships, as the Chinese ships had intended, the Filipino civilian boats managed to sail on, reach the Sierra Madre, pick up Philippine Navy personnel and deliver food and other supplies. The coast guard rated the latest mission a success, despite the tense encounter with the Chinese vessels. “The routine RoRe [rotational and resupply] mission was again subjected to dangerous maneuvers, jeopardizing the crew members’ safety aboard the PCG vessels and Philippine supply boats,” Commodore Jay Tarriela, the Philippine Coast Guard spokesman on the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea), said in a statement to media. This photo taken by a drone shows the Philippine Coast Guard Ship BRP Cabra surrounded by Chinese coast guard and maritime militia ships in South China Sea (West Philippine Sea) waters near Ayungin (Second Thomas) Shoal, Sept. 8, 2023. Credit: Handout/Philippine Coast Guard During Friday’s incident, the PCG said it had recorded 10 instances of dangerous maneuvers carried out by four CCG ships and four Chinese maritime militia ships toward the BRP Cabra and another Philippine Coast Guard ship, the BRP Sindangan. Two Chinese warships from the People’s Liberation Army Navy were also spotted monitoring the area. At one point, CCG 5305 blew its horn three times while crossing the bow of BRP Sindangan at a distance of approximately 50 to 60 yards. The BRP Cabra, for its part, was corralled by five Chinese ships: three maritime militia vessels and a CCG ship in front, and another CCG ship behind. Overnight journey The crews of the Cabra and Sindangan, 44-meter-long (144.3-feet-long) coast guard multi-purpose response vessels, and the journalists aboard them had left the Philippine island of Palawan at around 9 a.m. on Thursday. The coast guard ships were deployed to escort two small supply boats, the Unaizah May 1 and Unaizah May 2, which the Philippine Navy had commissioned for its routine rotational and resupply mission. The wooden boats were transporting food, supplies, and a new batch of sailors headed to the Sierra Madre, a decrepit World War II-era ship. In 1999, the Philippines deliberately ran it aground in Ayungin Shoal, which lies in the contested Spratly Islands, in response to China’s occupation of nearby Mischief Reef. The two Unaizah May boats and the PCG vessels met up near Sabina Shoal late Thursday night, with the two smaller ships sailing between the coast guard ships. “That was the instruction to us, protect the Unaizah May boats,” Emmanuel Dangate, the commander of the Cabra, told the reporters aboard his ship. Emmanuel Dangate, commanding officer of the BRP Cabra, looks out from the ship’s bridge as Chinese vessels try to cut its path and maneuver close to it in waters near Ayungin Shoal, Sept. 8, 2023. Credit: Camille Elemia/BenarNews View from the bridge During Friday’s standoff, the atmosphere on the bridge of the Cabra was quiet and sober as the Chinese ships closed in on the PCG ship. Some of the crew were even smiling and joking around. Dangate, the Cabra’s skipper, remained calm as he gazed ahead from the bridge and gave orders to his crew. “During this kind of mission, it ignites our patriotism and dedication,” the commanding officer told the select group of reporters, who had been allowed to travel to get a rare first-hand view of one of the Philippine resupply missions. From time to time, he would look through his binoculars and ask brief questions to his team. “Does that ship have an AIS [automatic identification system]?” he asked, pointing to a distant vessel…
G20 ends on high note for Indian host
The G20 wound up on Sunday with leaders visiting a memorial statue to Indian independence leader Mahatma Gandhi, a day after adding 55 new member states via the African Union and coming up with a compromise communique soft on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Prime Minister Narendra Modi invited the African Union to join the G20 as a permanent member on Saturday in his opening remarks, calling on members to end a “global trust deficit.” “It is time for all of us to move together,” Modi said. Despite widespread anticipation that this year’s summit would be a damp squib, it appeared to have featured some significant pushback on China’s apparent unwillingness to play ball with the developed world. Modi announced on Saturday that negotiators had resolved deep differences over the wording on the war in Ukraine, but the phrasing – not invasion by Russia but “war in Ukraine” – was clearly a bone to Russia and China, whose leaders did not attend. China and Russia were opposed to any joint statement that censures Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. U.S. President Joe Biden skipped the final session of the summit, heading to Vietnam, where a Whitehouse official said the two nations would elevate their relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership, putting it on a par with Beijing and Moscow’s engagement with Hanoi. U.S. President Joe Biden leaves for Vietnam after attending the G20 Summit, in New Delhi, India, Sunday, Sept. 10, 2023. Credit: AP Modi pronounced the summit a success. “On the back of the hard work of all the teams, we have received consensus on the G20 Leaders Summit Declaration. I announce the adoption of this declaration,” Modi told the G20 leaders in New Delhi. “#G20India has been the MOST ambitious in the history of #G20 presidencies. With 112 outcomes and presidency documents, we have more than tripled the substantive work from previous presidencies,” said India’s G20 Sherpa representative Amitabh Kant on social media. Commentators said that it was significant that India appeared to be ready to take a more assertive role in global politics. Modi ended the summit by passing on the ceremonial gavel to Brazil’s president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, whose country takes over the bloc’s presidency. Welcome Africa The announcement of permanent inclusion of the 55-nation African Union (AU) is likely to be a blow for Chinese president Xi Jinping, who did not attend the summit for unknown reasons, and recently heralded the new membership of six countries in the BRICS grouping as “historic.” The AU’s young population of 1.3 billion is expected to double by 2050, when it will account for a quarter of the global population. It’s strategically important to both China, Africa’s largest trading partner and one of its largest lenders, and Russia, its leading arms provider. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, right, shares a light moment with African Union Chairman Azali Assoumani upon his arrival at Bharat Mandapam convention center for the G20 Summit in New Delhi, India, Saturday, Sept. 9, 2023. Credit: Pool via Reuters Meanwhile, in what will likely be seen as a challenge to Xi’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), U.S. President Joe Biden, Modi and allies announced a rail and shipping corridor connecting India with the Middle East and ultimately Europe. The project will include the United States, India, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the European Union and other countries in the G20. Commentators speculate it will enable greater trade and be an ambitious counter to China’s massive BRI, through which it has sought to invest and lend its way to making its economy better connected with the world. Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, left, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi shake hands next to U.S. President Joe Biden on the first day of the G20 summit in New Delhi, India, Sept. 9, 2023. Credit: AP/POOL The moves on Saturday, which were roundly seen as pushback against China, came against a background of speculation as to why China’s Xi was not present and calls for Beijing to explain itself. “It’s incumbent upon the Chinese government to explain” why its leader “would or would not participate,” Jon Finer, the U.S. deputy national security adviser, told reporters in Delhi. He said there was speculation that China is “giving up on G20” in favor of groupings like BRICS, where it is dominant. Chinese Premier Li Qiang, who attended the summit as a representative of Xi, called on the European Union Commission President Ursula von der Leyen for greater unity and cooperation between the two sides to counter global uncertainties, according to a statement on Sunday from China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Li urged the EU to provide a non-discriminatory environment for Chinese companies, as the bloc becomes warier of the risks of engaging China, seeing it as a “systemic rival” since 2019. Edited by Mike Firn and Elaine Chan.
Vietnam wants it all in balancing its ties with the US and China
President Joe Biden is heading to Vietnam for a visit that will upgrade bilateral relations to a “strategic comprehensive partnership,” a symbolic step that opens the door to wider cooperation between former Cold War foes who are now grappling with an assertive, powerful China. The elevated status is a symbolic gesture that recognizes the developed state of U.S.-Vietnam ties, almost 30 years after they normalized diplomatic relations and a half century since the end of the Vietnam War. But it doesn’t reflect a fundamental change in Vietnamese policy. Indeed, it should be seen as a manifestation of what Hanoi calls its omnidirectional and independent foreign policy. The overall growth of the relationship will remain hemmed in by the fact that the communist leaders who run Vietnam share the same world view as those who control China. In a partnership hierarchy created by the Vietnamese government, at the very top are neighbors Laos and Cambodia. However, what was once Vietnam’s secure western flank is now a source of concern with China’s surge in influence through investment, lending, development projects, and corruption. Comprehensive strategic partnerships had been reserved for Vietnam’s friends since the days of the revolution: Russia, China, and India. In 2023, in recognition of their burgeoning economic relationship, Vietnam elevated South Korea to that pantheon, recently followed by Singapore and Australia, and soon Indonesia. Liu Jianchao [shown], the head of the Communist Party of China’s International Liaison Department, recently met with General Secretary of Communist Party of Vietnam, Nguyen Phu Trong. Credit: Andy Wong/AP file photo For the U.S., the leapfrog from Vietnam’s comprehensive partner to a comprehensive strategic partner is important for three reasons. First, for top leaders in Hanoi, symbolism does matter. That a former foe is now on a par with revolutionary era friends is a win. Second, this upgrade will not please China, even though Hanoi has worked assiduously to try to convince Beijing that it is maintaining its independent foreign policy. It is inconceivable that Hanoi has not briefed Beijing on this, and Communist Party of Vietnam General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong has made party-to-party ties stronger than ever. He would not have approved the relationship upgrade if he felt insecure by Beijing’s reaction. Five days before Biden’s expected arrival this weekend, Liu Jianchao, the head of the Chinese Communist Party’s International Liaison Department met with Trong, who no doubt gave him further assurances. While Washington may want to rankle Beijing, which has overplayed its hand in the region with its aggressive South China Sea behavior and hawkish “Wolf Warrior” diplomacy, its real goal is to see Vietnam be strong enough to assert its vaunted autonomous foreign policy. Hanoi will no doubt be sending a politburo-level delegation to assure Beijing that the upgrade is not a lurch towards the United States or in any way anti-Chinese, but a manifestation of Vietnam’s independent and omni-directional foreign policy. Third, at the bureaucratic level, it’s hoped that the upgrade gives political top cover for the line ministries to increase their cooperation with U.S. counterparts across a range of issues, from countering narcotics and human trafficking to security cooperation. The upgrade does not automatically lead to more market access, more trade and investment, more port visits and other military engagements, but it won’t hurt their prospects either. In short, this upgrade is long overdue, and reflects the fact that the U.S. has far deeper ties than many other states ranked above it. An economic imperative The upgrade comes as Vietnam’s economy is slowing dramatically. Despite 8.5% growth in 2022, GDP only grew by 3.72% in the first six months of 2023, half the target. The Asian Development Bank and IMF have lowered their annual forecasts to 5.8% and 4.7%, respectively. While Vietnam has benefitted from corporate supply chain diversification out of China, that trend has also made the economy over-dependent on exports, which have fallen for five consecutive months, the longest slump in 14 years. In July, exports fell 3.5%. Industrial production contracted 1.8% in the first half of 2023, causing a 13% year-on-year increase in industrial layoffs. While Vietnam enjoys a large trade surplus with the U.S. – $44.3 billion in the first seven months of 2023 – that is down 24% year-on-year. Vietnam runs enormous trade deficits with China, as its manufactured goods are highly dependent on imported Chinese components. Without its exports to the U.S., Vietnam would run chronic trade deficits. As a direct foreign investor, the U.S. lags behind South Korea, Singapore, China, and Japan. In early 2023, Boeing announced a production facility, while Apple shifted an iPad production line out of China to Vietnam. But there’s plenty of room for growth. We should also not lose sight of portfolio investment from the U.S., where one fund alone has invested $1.5 billion in six projects. An employee works at Heesung Electronics Vietnam factory in Hai Phong, Vietnam, Aug. 29, 2023. Vietnam’s economy is slowing, with GDP growth of only 3.72% in the first six months of 2023. Credit: Nhac Nguyen/AFP Corporate Vietnam is trying to make a splash in the U.S.. Electric vehicle maker VinFast broke ground on a $4 billion plant in North Carolina, and has seen wild stock valuations after its recent listing on NASDAQ. VinFast sees the United States as the key to its growth, if not viability, despite a rocky first nine months that saw few sales and a recall. The tech firm VNG, Vietnam’s first “unicorn,” has filed paperwork for its listing on NASDAQ. If Vietnam is to escape the middle-income trap, it’s through trade and investment ties with the U.S., not China. To that end, executives from a swath of U.S. semiconductor and other tech industry will be joining Biden’s trip. What remains missing in U.S. policy towards the Asia-Pacific is an economic architecture. Since the withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership in January 2017, the United States has abdicated its leadership. States are going along with the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) , but only to keep Washington…
African Union joins G20 as compromise statement agreed
Prime Minister Narendra Modi invited the African Union to join the G20 as a permanent member on Saturday in his opening remarks, calling on members to end a “global trust deficit.” “It is time for all of us to move together,” Modi said. Modi announced later in the day during the summit that negotiators had resolved deep differences over the wording on the war in Ukraine. “On the back of the hard work of all the teams, we have received consensus on the G20 Leaders Summit Declaration. I announce the adoption of this declaration,” Modi told the G20 leaders in New Delhi. China and Russia are known to be opposed to any joint statement that censures Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Despite widespread anticipation that this year’s summit would be a damp squib – perhaps resulting in no communique at all – the G20 appeared to be pushing back on China’s apparent lack of willingness to play ball with the developed world. The announcement of permanent inclusion of the 55-nation African Union (AU) is likely to be a blow for Chinese president Xi Jinping, who is not attending the summit for unknown reasons, and recently heralded the new membership of six countries in the BRICS grouping as “historic.” The AU’s young population of 1.3 billion is expected to double by 2050, when it will account for a quarter of the global population. It’s strategically important to both China, Africa’s largest trading partner and one of its largest lenders, and Russia, its leading arms provider. U.S. President Joe Biden listens to the opening remarks of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the first session of the G20 Summit, in New Delhi, India, Saturday, Sept. 9, 2023. Credit: Evan Vucci/Pool via Reuters Meanwhile, in what will likely be seen as a challenge to Xi’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), U.S. President Joe Biden, Modi and allies were reported to have plans to announce a rail and shipping corridor connecting India with the Middle East and ultimately Europe. The project would include the United States, India, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the European Union and other countries in the G20, the Associated Press reported Jon Finer, Biden’s principal deputy national security adviser, as saying. Biden, Modi and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen were to announce the project as part of the Partnership for Global Infrastructure Investment, with commentary speculating that it would enable greater trade and be an ambitious counter to China’s massive BRI, through which it has sought to invest and lend its way to making its economy better connected with the world. The moves on Saturday, which were roundly seen as pushback against China, came against a background of speculation as to why China’s Xi was not present and calls for Beijing to explain itself. “It’s incumbent upon the Chinese government to explain” why its leader “would or would not participate,” Jon Finer, the U.S. deputy national security adviser, told reporters in Delhi. He said there was speculation that China is “giving up on G20” in favor of groupings like BRICS, where it is dominant. Edited by Elaine Chan and Mike Firn.
And then there were three
Taiwan’s richest man, Terry Gou, has joined the island’s presidential race, setting up a January 2024 contest pitting three opposition hopefuls against the ruling party candidate. Gou, the founder of electronics giant Foxconn, jumped into a race in which the China-friendly opposition “blue camp” vote was already fractured between Hou Yu-ih of the Kuomintang and Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party. Analysts say Gou’s move will only serve to further bolster the fortunes of Lai Ching-te of the incumbent Democratic Progressive Party, which rejects Beijing’s claims over and threats to self-governing Taiwan.
Myanmar’s United Wa State Army deports alleged Chinese scammers
Myanmar’s rebel United Wa State Army has captured more than 1,000 people it said were working for online fraud gangs and handed them over to Chinese police at Shan state’s border with China, a Wa Liaison Office representative told Radio Free Asia on Friday. The officer, Nyi Rang, said – with the assistance of the Chinese police – the ethnic army carried out two days of raids on Wednesday and Thursday and deported those arrested immediately. He said they were all Chinese nationals. The United Wa State Army controls Shan state’s Special Administrative Region, known as Wa state. It has an estimated 30,000 soldiers and maintains close ties with China. RFA Burmese called junta Deputy Information Officer Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun to confirm the reports but nobody answered. RFA also sent an email to the Chinese Embassy in Yangon but had not received a reply as of Friday evening local time. China’s Ministry of Public Security said Myanmar transferred 1,207 suspects including 41 fugitives to China, the official Xinhua news agency reported. Scammers are known to operate in the Special Administrative Region, luring Burmese and foreign nationals with offers of fake jobs, then forcing them to use Facebook and Telegram accounts to defraud people with fake cryptocurrency deals and other scams, as well as laundering money. A resident of Mong Pauk town, 10 kilometers (6 miles) from the border with China, said he witnessed the arrested being taken away. “I saw that the arrested were taken in six military trucks yesterday. And more than 100 were caught today,” said the local who didn’t want to be named for fear of reprisals. “They all are fraudsters. The arrested Chinese citizens are being sent [to China] at the border gates in Panghsang [Pangkam].” Some people posted photos and videos on Facebook and TikTok showing hundreds of police leading away groups of men and some women and taking them to the border. RFA has not verified the images. One Mong Pauk resident who works in labor affairs urged people to try to get their children back from the scam centers. “Right now, families need to contact their children who have been sold to money laundering gangs as soon as possible,” the person said. “I also want to encourage parents to call their children if they know where they have been sold.” Residents said fraud gangs are operating in United Wa State Army controlled areas of the region, including Pangkam and Mong Pauk towns, along with Laukkaing and Chinshwehaw in northern Shan state, as well as Shwe Kokko in Kayin state. On Aug. 26, the Chinese Embassy in Yangon said Myanmar police had handed over 24 Chinese nationals, including the leader of an online fraud gang. Hundreds of thousands of people in Southeast Asian countries, including Myanmar are being threatened and tortured by criminal gangs and forced into online scams, according to a U.N. report released on August 29. It said that over 120,000 people in Myanmar and 100,000 people in Cambodia are being forced to commit financial fraud online. These gangs are active in the border areas of countries with political and military conflicts, the U.N. said. Translated by RFA Burmese. Edited by Mike Firn and Elaine Chan.
Tens of thousands gather in Seoul to protest Fukushima discharge
Tens of thousands of Koreans gathered in front of Seoul’s City Hall over the weekend to protest Japan’s release of radioactive water from the damaged Fukushima nuclear power plant. Japan started the gradual release of treated radioactive wastewater from the damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant into the Pacific Ocean on Aug. 24, despite regional and local concerns, with plans to eventually pump more than a million metric tons of it into the sea. Saturday’s demonstration drew support from more than 80 civic organizations and four political parties, including the main opposition Democratic Party. Spreading across four vehicle lanes, demonstrators voiced their concerns with chants and displayed banners with slogans including, “Immediately stop the Fukushima water release” and “Denounce the Yoon Suk Yeol leadership.” They also asked for a ban on imports of all Japanese aquatic products, urging Korea’s leaders to file a lawsuit against the Japanese government with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. One of the protesters told Radio Free Asia that she was against the release and the Korean government for not putting pressure on Japan. “I am participating in this protest because I do not trust the Japanese government. I do not believe when they say it won’t have an impact,” Jeong Kim, a 23-year-old Seoul resident, said. “The Korean government should have pressured Japan to let independent scientists verify Tokyo’s claims,” she said. A fisherman said his job would be disrupted due to the release. “Many families like mine, who depend on the ocean for our livelihoods, would face serious consequences,” said Seoung Min, from the southeastern coast. Survey shows widespread concern One of the organizers told RFA she estimated the turnout was more than 50,000 people. After the leaders addressed the main event, various groups marched in different directions around the city, disrupting traffic in many areas. The rally went on for more than four hours. The protest comes just one day after Gallup Korea released a public survey that found three-quarters of Koreans were either “very worried” or “somewhat worried” that the Fukushima discharge would pollute Korea’s oceans and marine products. More than 60% said they were reluctant to consume seafood products. The survey of more than 1,000 Koreans was taken from Aug. 29 to 31 nationwide. Three protesters carry images of US, Japan, and South Korean leaders during a rally against Japan’s release of treated radioactive water from the damaged Fukushima nuclear power plant into the sea in Seoul, Sept. 2, 2023. Credit: Subel Rai Bhandari for RFA Even though Tokyo – and many outside experts – have said the nuclear wastewater is not harmful, many South Koreans and Chinese have been vocal about the potential impact on people’s health and the environment. China has banned imports of Japanese seafood. TEPCO, the Tokyo Electric Power Company, which operates the power plant, which was damaged in a massive tsunami triggered by an earthquake on March 11, 2011, has said that the controlled discharge of the treated wastewater adheres to a meticulous nuclear purification process. The treatment leaves all but one primary radioactive isotope – tritium, which is impossible to separate from water, and so will be diluted to bring it below regulatory standards before the release. Many experts have called for more independent verification of the release plan, alleging that the decision to release the water was reached through a process that lacked full transparency and did not sufficiently include consultations with stakeholders from Japan and other countries. The U.N.’s atomic watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, has been monitoring the release. Last month, it gave Tokyo the green light to start, saying the planned discharge meets relevant international safety standards and would have a “negligible” radiological impact on people and the environment. Over 1.3 million cubic meters of wastewater – enough to fill more than 500 Olympic-size swimming pools – currently contained in numerous water storage tanks at the facility is set to be released, which could take up to 40 years to complete. Edited by Mike Firn and Malcolm Foster.
Russia proposes joint naval drill with China, North Korea
Russia has formally proposed to China and North Korea for a joint naval drill in July, South Korea’s spies said on Monday – a move that could further escalate tensions in East Asia. “Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has made an official proposal for a trilateral naval drill to Kim Jong Un when he last visited North Korea,” Yoo Sang-beom, a lawmaker who was briefed by the nation’s spy agency, in the National Assembly, told reporters. The assessment by South Korea’s National Intelligence Service followed Shoigu’s visit to Pyongyang two months ago, which has raised suspicions that the two nations were looking to enhance their military cooperation including arms trading that would support Russia’s war with Ukraine. Washington issued a stern warning against North Korea last month regarding weapons transactions with Russia. The White House’s national security spokesperson John Kirby said the U.S. was concerned about potential arms deals between Russia and North Korea. While Pyongyang’s recent provocations have strengthened trilateral security cooperation among the U.S., South Korea and Japan, both China and Russia are defending North Korea on the international stage, with the North reciprocating this backing. The South Korean spies also saw North Korea’s missile launch Saturday as a response to the U.S.-South Korea joint drill, according to Yoo, hinting that authoritarian regimes in the world are seeking their own ways to counter military ties among democracies. North Korea launched two cruise missiles carrying mock nuclear warheads towards the West Sea of the Korean peninsula. The missiles traveled about 1,500 kilometers (932 miles) for more than two hours, before detonating at an altitude of 150 meters, the official Korean Central News Agency said. While firing cruise missiles isn’t prohibited by the U.N., they present a significant threat to U.S. troops stationed in South Korea. North Korea’s latest cruise missile launch marked only a partial success. The Intelligence Service confirmed that one of the two missiles launched on Saturday was unsuccessful. The partial success, however, hints at Pyongyang’s revamped strategy to integrate its conventional arsenal and tactical nuclear weapons to threaten allies. “It seems clear that they are thinking of a short-term war, if there is any, merging their conventional arsenal with tactical nuclear weapons,” Yoo said, citing the assessment of South Korea’s spy agency. He said the intelligence agents have emphasized North Korea’s inability to wage a long-term war, as the hermit state is strapped by an ongoing economic crisis. North Korea had imposed strict COVID restrictions in early 2020, shutting down its borders, including that with its biggest trading partner, China. The North Korean economy contracted for the third straight year in 2022, according to the Bank of Korea. COVID restrictions, compounded by international sanctions, are widely seen to have further depressed the North’s struggling economy. The South’s spies also reiterated the position that the agency has yet to draw any conclusion that Kim Ju Ae, Kim Jong Un’s daughter, will succeed her father as North Korea’s next leader. Kim Ju Ae was seen accompanying her father during the North’s Navy Day last week. It was her first public appearance since May 16, when she showed up for an on-site inspection of a preparatory committee related to the North’s attempt to launch a military spy satellite. The appearance was widely seen as a rare window of the regime’s motivations to familiarize the North Korean public with potential future leaders, a strategy that Pyongyang has employed for decades. Edited by Elaine Chan and Mike Firn.
China bans book about the early history of the Mongolian people
Chinese authorities have banned a book on the history of the Mongols, citing “historical nihilism” – a term indicating a version of history not in keeping with the official party line – in what appeared to be a concerted attack by Beijing on ethnic Mongolians’ identity. Orders have been sent out to remove “A General History of the Mongols” by scholars in the Mongolian Studies department of the Inner Mongolia Institute of Education should be removed from shelves, the pro-Beijing Sing Tao Daily newspaper reported. It cited an Aug. 25 directive from the Inner Mongolian branch of the government-backed Books and Periodicals Distribution Association. The move comes after President Xi Jinping called for renewed efforts to boost a sense of Chinese national identity in a visit to the northwestern region of Xinjiang. Xi vowed to double down on China’s hardline policies toward the 11 million mostly Muslim Uyghurs who live in the region, warning that “hard-won social stability” would remain the top priority, along with making everyone speak Mandarin rather than their own languages. And his warnings seemed to apply to other regions, too. “Forging a strong sense of community for the Chinese nation is a focus of .. all work in areas with large ethnic minority populations,” Xi said in comments paraphrased by state media reports. China’s President Xi Jinping delivers a speech during his visit to Urumqi in northwestern China’s Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, Aug. 26, 2023. Credit: Yan Yan/Xinhua via Getty Images “Education on standard spoken and written Chinese must be resolutely carried out to enhance people’s consciousness and ability to use it,” he said. Ethnic Mongolians, who make up almost 20 percent of Inner Mongolia’s population of 23 million, increasingly complain of widespread environmental destruction and unfair development policies in the region, as well as ongoing attempts to target their traditional culture. Clashes between Chinese state-backed mining or forestry companies and herding communities are common in the region, which borders the independent country of Mongolia, with those who complain about the loss of their grazing lands frequently targeted for harassment, beatings, and detention by the authorities. Historical narrative The banned book, published in 2004, was previously lauded for its work in “connecting the history of Mongolia from ancient times to the medieval period, making the history of Mongolia more complete,” according to a Baidupedia entry still available on Friday. “Systematizing, organizing, and using a scientific approach can help the world better understand China’s five thousand years of glorious history, strengthen the unity of the Chinese nation, and make Chinese culture and history more prosperous,” said the entry, which must have once been approved by government censors. Analysts said the book is already fairly nationalistic in tone, and describes the Mongols as part of the Chinese nation. But the ban comes as the authorities are increasingly concerned about a growing sense of Mongolian identity among ethnic Mongolians living in China. “A lot of Mongolian scholars and Mongolians in general don’t like this book because it describes the Mongols as a people of China,” Yang Haiying, a professor at Shizuoka University in Japan, told Radio Free Asia. “The Mongols have never considered themselves to be a Chinese people.” Nonetheless, the book is now considered to contribute to a pan-Mongolian identity because it didn’t go far enough in making the Mongols appear to be historically part of the Chinese nation, Yang said. “A lot of Mongolian scholars and Mongolians in general don’t like [“A General History of the Mongols”], because it describes the Mongols as a people of China,” Yang Haiying, a professor at Shizuoka University in Japan, told Radio Free Asia. Provided by Yang Haiying A pro-government comment on the social media platform Weibo hit out at the book for “historical nihilism.” “Criticizing the pan-Mongolian nationalist trend is conducive to #cultivating the consciousness of the Chinese national community, conducive to #ethnic exchanges, exchanges, and integration#, and conducive to #forging a strong sense of the Chinese nation’s community !,” user @XiMay1 wrote on Aug. 29. Ending Mongolian instruction At the start of the academic year in 2020, China announced it would end Mongolian-medium instruction in schools, prompting angry protests and a wide-ranging crackdown across the region. Taiwan-based strategic analyst Shih Chien-yu said the banning of the book sends a more general message to China’s ethnic Mongolians. “There are still a lot of Mongolian cadres in the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party of China, a lot of Mongolian intellectuals and officials, while most of the ethnic minority intellectuals in the various central nationalities colleges and university-level schools are Mongolian,” he said. Protestors hold banners and wave the Mongolian flag during a protest in Ulaanbaatar, the capital of Mongolia, against Chinese policies in the neighboring Chinese province of Inner Mongolia on Oct. 1, 2020. Credit: Byambasuren Byamba-Ochir/AFP “The main reason for banning the book is to warn them that they should believe they still have any clout within the regime,” Shih said. “Don’t put up any resistance behind our backs, because we can take away your power at any time.” In 2018, Chinese authorities detained Lhamjab A. Borjigin, a prominent ethnic Mongolian historian who gathered testimony of a historical genocide campaign by the ruling Chinese Communist Party, prosecuting him on charges of separatism. He was handed a one-year suspended jail term for “separatism” and “sabotaging national unity,” then released under ongoing surveillance. Translated by Luisetta Mudie.
Myanmar’s post-coup economy comes crumbling down
Amid the news of escalating violence, it’s easy to lose sight of two events in August 2023 that exposed the Myanmar military regime’s vulnerability. First, in a video message to the Moscow International Security Conference, coup leader Min Aung Hlaing complained about the weaponization of the dollar. Second, the August appointment of Lt Gen Nyo Saw to two special commissions on trade and foreign exchange that report directly to junta chief Min Aung Hlaing. Saw is a close confidant, but as the chairman of military-owned conglomerate Myanma Economic Corporation (MEC) and a director of military’s other holding company, Myanma Economic Holdings Ltd (MEHL), he’s also the military’s most experienced economic and business expert. It’s hard to overstate just how bad Myanmar’s economy is. Although the World Bank predicts GDP to grow at 2 to 3% this year, the economy has contracted by 12% since January 2021. A decade’s worth of economic growth was eviscerated. Myanmar junta leader Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing during a military exercise in Ayeyarwady delta region, Myanmar, Feb. 2018. Credit: Lynn Bo Bo/Reuters pool Nearly 60% of the population is now living beneath the poverty line, and the World Bank is warning about food insecurity across the country. Between war, climate change, and currency controls that limited the amount of the imports of fertilizer and pesticides, agricultural production is down. Although 2022-23 saw $1.6 billion in pledged foreign investment – almost all of which was from China or boomerang Myanmar investment via Singapore and Hong Kong – far less was actually realized. Other foreign investors are pulling out, citing poor market conditions, pressure from activists, and reputational costs. This has diminished the corporate tax base. With the exception of gas and oil sales to Thailand and China, exports have been hard hit. According to the military government’s Ministry of Commerce, in the first eight months of 2022, total exports reached $6.57 billion, giving the country a $172 million trade surplus. In the same period in 2023, total exports dropped by 9.8% to $5.93 billion, with a $500 million trade deficit. But if one disaggregates border trade, it’s even worse. Currency control confusion Exports to overseas markets fell by 21%. And it will worsen as key manufacturers, such as clothing makers H&M, Primark, and Inditex,- have left. Some retailers are now shunning Myanmar gemstones. Trade has been hard hit by a series of hastily implemented currency controls that change regularly, upsetting businesses. Some of the more recent currency controls have forced any individual or business with more than $10,000, without a permit, to purchase the kyat currency at the official exchange rate of 2,100 to the U.S. dollar. The black market rate for the greenback is 3,900 kyat , a 300% decline in the value of the currency since the Feb. 1, 2021 coup. Headquarters of the military-owned Myanmar Economic Corporation in Yangon, one of the country’s main military conglomerates. Photo: Ye Aung Thu/AFP Myanmar’s banks are increasingly isolated. U.S. sanctions on Myanma Foreign Trade Bank and Myanma Investment and Commercial Bank, which were responsible for the clearing of most U.S. dollar transactions, have forced costly workarounds, such as establishing new shell companies and bank accounts. Singapore’s United Overseas Bank Limited (UOB) announced that they would close the accounts of Myanmar, and had already stopped providing banking services for Myanmar Airways International. Other Singapore banks are expected to follow suit, following signaling from the Monetary Authority of Singapore and the additional reporting requirements due to the Financial Action Task Force blacklist. A Bangladesh bank froze the accounts of the two sanctioned banks. Government revenue is flat or declining. While officially a secret, projections built into the annual Union Taxation Law paint a grim picture. The Internal Revenue Department has warned that revenue from lotteries, income tax, corporate taxes, natural resource rents, and customs duties have all stayed flat or contracted since the coup; only rents from oil and gas exports have gone up. Tax authorities are now specifically hitting medical professionals with preemptive taxes. According to data compiled by the opposition National Unity Government (NUG), the Central Bank of Myanmar has compelled banks, state-owned enterprises and insurance companies to buy an estimated 26.5 trillion kyat in bonds, $3.1 billion at the black market rate, since the coup. With an inability to repay, and an NUG pledge that the bonds will not be honored, these are additional liabilities for banks that are already saddled with non-performing loans. The regime is broke and may have turned on the printing presses. The NUG estimates that the military government has printed up to 20 trillion kyat, roughly $5.1 billion at black market rates, since the coup, partially explaining the high inflation. Sanctions take a bite In July 2023, the junta issued a K20,000 note, the highest denomination, creating an inflationary spike and a further decline in the currency’s value. It’s supposed to be a limited issue currency, but with 14% inflation, a higher denominated note may be required. While international sanctions have not resulted in a massive seizure of funds, they’ve not been insignificant either. The U.S.immediately froze $1.1 billion of Central Bank of Myanmar assets following the coup. The European Union froze $503 million when it sanctioned the Ministry of Oil and Gas Enterprise. More importantly, the sanctions have made everything harder for the junta. The NUG has identified 13 other banks around the world that are holding some $5.5 billion in Central Bank of Myanmar assets, 67% of which are in nine banks in Singapore. Should the NUG ever convince the Singapore government to freeze those assets, it would deliver the coup de grâce. A jetty for oil tankers at Madae island, Kyaukpyu, Rakhine state, Myanmar. With the exception of gas and oil exports to Thailand and China, Myanmar’s exports have been hard hit. Credit: Soe Zeya Tun/Reuters This degree of economic mismanagement is a crime in itself, right up there with the military’s daily war crimes. The economy is the regime’s Achilles heel and they don’t have…
