- contact@ij-reportika.com
Category: East Asia
Why nonviolent resistance is the key to a democratic China
The principle of nonviolence is rooted in the idea that justice can only be achieved through just means. Since Mahatma Gandhi founded his nonviolent resistance movement that eventually won India her independence, the idea has become accepted around the world, and the United Nations has designated Oct. 2 “International Nonviolence Day.” The nonviolent resistance theory of the late American scholar Gene Sharp, a lifelong advocate for this form of resistance, has been credited with inspiring color revolutions in former Soviet bloc countries, the Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia, and the Arab Spring. Nonviolent resistance is also emerging as the fundamental mode of protest against authoritarian rule for Chinese citizens, and sthe one that has the most impact. From the fearless action of Peng Lifa on Beijing’s Sitong Bridge in October 2022, to Nanjing University of Media and Communications student Li Kangmeng, who was the first to silently raise a blank sheet of A4, kicking off the “white paper” protests that were to spread across China and make global headlines a few weeks later, there are plenty of examples. In my view, nonviolent resistance isn’t just the main practical way to oppose authoritarian states today. It also holds significant implications for China’s future ability to achieve a peaceful political transition and establish a democratic government. We need to uphold this fundamental concept. Protesters hold up blank pieces of paper and chant slogans as they march to protest strict COVID-19 measures in Beijing, Nov. 27, 2022. (Ng Han Guan/AP) It’s a practical, feasible approach that ordinary people can incorporate into their daily lives. Its various forms, 198 of which were set out by Gene Sharp, are easily adopted, applied, and disseminated by the general public, making it unpredictable, and hard for authoritarian regimes to counter preemptively. And it’s gaining traction among the people. The goal in engaging in such tactics today is to end the totalitarian rule of the Chinese Communist Party and secure human rights and civil liberties for China’s people. To achieve this, we must build unity among various civil forces. Nonviolent resistance is our only option today, not just because we lack firearms or because it aligns with our moral principles, but because it’s a necessity for the future – for pushing ahead towards a constitutional democracy, and eventually achieving democracy through peaceful means. Because the collapse of authoritarian tyranny doesn’t automatically lead to constitutional democracy. Following the collapse of any authoritarian regime, there is the daunting task of clearing away the rubble and constructing a new political community, something that may prove much harder than overthrowing totalitarian rule in the first place. When China enters its post-Chinese Communist Party era, people from different regions and ethnicities will have diverse ideas and demands. The complexity of addressing these contradictions and disputes may well surpass that of any other country in the world. Peaceful, rational communication, negotiation, and cooperation will become urgently necessary. Violence could emerge Commitment to nonviolent resistance means that we must consider our interests, but also those of our children and future generations to come, and we must continue to adhere to the principle of nonviolence throughout the whole process: in standing up to the tyranny of an authoritarian government today, but also in opposing the tyranny of the majority and protecting everyone’s human rights and civil liberties tomorrow. Only then can we lay a solid foundation on which to build our future democracy, and prevent our progress towards democracy from being interrupted by a series of crises, as it was a century ago. What’s more, violence may emerge at any stage of China’s political transition, and we must prepare to deal with it. Plenty of those killed by the Chinese Communist Party, including Lin Zhao, Yu Luoke, Liu Xiaobo, and the students on Tiananmen Square in 1989, didn’t engage in violence, yet they still lost their lives at the hands of the authoritarian regime. So we know that we’re facing an authoritarian regime that has no regard for the basic principles of humanity and no moral boundaries. Yet nonviolent resistance doesn’t mean people can’t defend themselves when the sword of authoritarian tyranny is raised against them. Under such circumstances, keeping to the path of nonviolent resistance becomes even more challenging, requiring unwavering conviction, courage, wisdom, and long-term resilience. We need to unite more people in this effort, because violence may be part of the reality of China’s political transition. Many in China and overseas worry about potential chaos in China if Communist Party rule were to suddenly collapse, leaving a power vacuum and societal breakdown. Security guards stop journalists from entering the apartment house where Liu Xia, wife of Liu Xiaobo, stays in Beijing, Oct. 8, 2010. Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo won the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize for “his long and nonviolent struggle for fundamental human rights.” (Andy Wong/AP) In such a scenario, Chinese refugees might overwhelm neighboring Asian countries or even Europe and America, disrupting global peace and stability. Back home, long-suppressed hatred could erupt into acts of violence. Such fears are not unreasonable. China lacks a universally respected leader, a law-abiding culture, or any kind of guiding force transcending the political realm. But that risk doesn’t justify continued authoritarian rule in any way. On the contrary, it underscores the need for us to oppose violence and use the power of the law to hold criminal elements of the authoritarian regime to account for their crimes against the people, to ensure justice is done. Complex and arduous transition To achieve this, we will need to work together to maintain normal economic and social life, minimize acts of violence, reduce social unrest, and lessen the social cost of China’s political transition. Only then can we gain genuine support from the international community and help the Chinese people to achieve effective political change. Later, there may also be dissenting opinions and conflicts among the various forces that previously united against authoritarian rule. We must respond to this in a reasonable manner, and engage in democratic negotiations using…
Suspected Chinese spy pigeon released after 8-month detention in India
A pigeon, suspected of being used by China for espionage, has been released after eight months in police custody in Mumbai, according to local media reports. The falsely-accused bird was released from the Bai Sakarbai Dinshaw Petit Hospital for Animals on Tuesday, said a police officer in India’s most populous city, as cited by the Press Trust of India (PTI) news agency on Wednesday. Its current whereabouts are unknown. The pigeon was caught in May, 2023, at a port in the Chembur suburb of Mumbai with two rings tied to its legs featuring words that appeared to be Chinese, which led the police to suspect it was spying for China, PTI reported. The bird was taken to the animal hospital for custody, until it emerged in January that it was actually an open-water racing pigeon from Taiwan, which had escaped and flown to India, according to the news agency. This was not the first time a pigeon has been detained by the watchful Indian police force. In March, 2023, two suspected spy pigeons were caught in the eastern Odisha state. The first one was found on a fishing boat with devices fitted on its leg which appear to be a camera and a microchip. The two birds are believed to still be under investigation. Back in 2020, police in Indian-controlled Kashmir captured a bird that belonged to a Pakistani fisherman, but later found that it had simply flown across the border, admittedly without permission. Before that, in 2016, another pigeon was captured after it was found with a note threatening Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Flying spies Throughout history, pigeons have been used by the militaries in many countries for delivering messages and spying. China, for instance, allegedly runs a special military pigeon unit at the Guilin Joint Logistics Support Center in Kunming, Yunnan province, according to media reports. “Today, with all kinds of ways to intercept messages sent by electronic means, terrorists or enemies of a state can use ways that cannot be tapped, such as pigeons,” said Yusuf Unjhawala, an Indian defense analyst as well as a scholar at the Takshashila Institution in Bangalore “The use of animals for military purposes is an old thing, from horses to elephants to pigeons,” said Unjhawala. “Dolphins can also be used to detect underwater mines.” A Taiwanese defense expert, Shen Ming-Shih from the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, said racing pigeons have gained such popularity that raising them has become an industry in Taiwan. “Taiwan also uses racing pigeons to send intelligence or deliver messages, despite the advancement of various communication technologies,” Shen told Radio Free Asia. Edited by Taejun Kang and Elaine Chan.
Myanmar arrests alleged Chinese scammers, former MP
Police in northern Myanmar have arrested 10 phone and internet fraud suspects and sent them to China, the Chinese embassy in Yangon announced. Six of those arrested on Tuesday night are accused of being ringleaders of the scam operation, the embassy’s statement said. They include Bai Suocheng, a former chairman of Myanmar’s Kokang region, his son Bai Yingcang, Wai Huairen, Liu Zhengxiang, Liu Zhengmauk and Xu Laofa. They have since been handed over to China, the embassy said. Bai Suocheng and his son were among 10 people named in arrest warrants issued on Dec. 10 by China’s Ministry of Public Security. Bai Suocheng is a former member of parliament for the junta’s Union Solidarity and Development Party and a close friend of regime leader Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, according to political analyst Than Soe Naing, who added that Suocheng was trusted by the junta. “Bai Suocheng was mainly working on scamming businesses in Kokang’s economy and China demanded his arrest when this scamming increased. The junta had to carry it out,” he told Radio Free Asia. “When China issued a warrant, the military junta immediately brought him back to Naypyidaw and gave him security. However, China intervened to stop the fighting in the northern Shan state, so the junta could not deny them and gave China what they wanted.” The Chinese embassy statement called the operation “another significant success in law enforcement cooperation between China and Myanmar.” On Jan. 23, more than 1,000 Chinese nationals were arrested in Shan state’s Namhsan for alleged connection to scam centers. About 44,000 people suspected of committing crimes have been handed over to China as a result of joint police action against online fraud in northern Myanmar, the statement continued. This number includes investors and gang leaders. As of Wednesday, the military had not released any information on the joint operation. RFA contacted regime spokesperson Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun, but he did not respond by the time of publication. Translated by RFA Burmese. Edited by Mike Firn.
Chinese activists transiting at Taipei airport say they’re seeking asylum
Three Chinese nationals who fled to Thailand in November and arrived at Taipei’s airport on Tuesday told Radio Free Asia they fear arrest if they return to Beijing and are planning to seek assistance from the Taiwanese government to move to a third country. Tian Yongde, Wei Yani and Huang Xingxing all obtained United Nations temporary refugee cards in Bangkok after traveling there in November. All three arrived in Taiwan on a flight from Kuala Lumpur and had tickets to board another flight to Beijing. But in an interview with RFA late Tuesday, Tian Yongde said the three were instead preparing to pass through a security checkpoint at Taoyuan Airport in order to stay in Taiwan. “I hope the Taiwan government will give me some time and let me wait here,” he said. “Taiwan is recognized for its high quality, and it is safe and secure to wait for a U.S. visa in Taiwan.” Tian, 52, said authorities began keeping tabs on him in 2005 when he visited the home of Zhao Ziyang, China’s former prime minister who was removed from power in the wake of the 1989 Tiananmen massacre and kept under house arrest for 16 years. After that, Tian was unable to work and was summoned by police many times for writing articles or participating in “group incidents.” RFA was not immediately able to verify the account of Tian and his traveling companions, but they forwarded images of the identification cards provided to them by the U.N. refugee agency. “I was arrested twice for ‘subversion of state power’ in 2009 and 2011,” Tian said. “The first time, I gave materials to petitioners, and I was said to be illegally holding state secrets.” The other two people – 53-year-old Wei Yani and 17-year-old Huang Xingxing – are mother and son. They are unrelated to Tian, and only met him once they arrived in late November in Thailand. They eventually made plans to travel together. ‘Unsafe in Thailand’ Wei said she was imprisoned four times in China for a total of 10 years for petitioning for basic rights for herself and for friends. Authorities accused her of “picking quarrels and provoking troubles” and “subverting state power,” she told RFA. She said she had trouble finding work after she was released from prison in June, and also had one more criminal trial pending. “So I borrowed money from others to apply for a refugee certificate with my son,” she told RFA. “I just want to be able to move on from here [Taiwan] through media appeals.” Tian recorded a video at Taoyuan Airport in which he said he feels more safe in Taiwan than in Thailand, where authorities have recently sent a number of prominent activists and dissidents back to China. “Hello everyone, I am Tian Yongde,” he said in the video. “Because I feel unsafe in Thailand, when I came to Taiwan, which feels relatively safe, my purpose is to go to the United States.” Wei said she and her son will seek asylum in the United States or the Netherlands if they are allowed to stay in Taiwan. In the future, she would like to help Chinese people petition for complaints. “I still have more things to do,” Wei said, referring to her previous work with writing and gathering petitions. The Taiwan Immigration Department didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment by RFA on the three Chinese nationals. Edited by Chen Meihua, He Ping and Matt Reed.
Kim Jong Un’s sister ‘not to be underestimated,’ author says
North Korea’s next global “charm offensive” will be led by leader Kim Jong Un’s younger sister, Kim Yo Jong, who is the strategic mastermind in Pyongyang and could eventually succeed her brother in power. At least that’s according to Sung-Yoon Lee, a North Korea expert and fellow at the Wilson Center who late last year released a 304-page biography about the woman he calls “the brains” behind the despotic rule of her brother, a man he says is more interested in basketball. “She is really the mastermind of this family campaign to expand their influence over South Korea and beyond,” Lee said at a book-signing event hosted by the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea at DACOR Bacon House in Washington, D.C., on Thursday morning. Lee told the gathering that his book, titled “The Sister: North Korea’s Kim Yo Jong, the Most Dangerous Woman in the World,” was years in the making, with his interest piqued by her attendance at her father’s funeral in 2011, when the world knew little about her or her brother. Even though in Korea, the “proper way to express your sorrow is to really overdo it, to exaggerate and wail away almost deliriously,” Lee said, noting there was an added incentive to do so in the North, Kim Yo Jong “showed genuine, profound sadness” but otherwise felt no need to go further, even when the cameras were trained on her face. Sung-Yoon Lee, left, speaks alongside Committee for Human Rights in North Korea Executive Director Greg Scarlatoiu at an event at DACOR Bacon House in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 25, 2024. (Alex Willemyns/RFA) In the years that followed, he said, her always perfectly upright posture, “Mona Lisa smile” and “imperious” demeanor when appearing in public made him more curious about her role leading the hermit kingdom. “Unfortunately, I see in her eyes a sparkle – intelligence,” he said. “I saw that in Kim Jong Il, too, and in Kim Il Sung, the state founder. They were intelligent; they were not crazy, in the conventional sense.” “I don’t see that sparkle in Kim Jong Un,” he added. Winter Olympics The wider world first got to know Kim Yo Jong, believed to be 37 years old, at the February 2018 Winter Olympics in the South Korean city of PyeongChang, which took place in the lead-up to then-U.S. President Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un’s first meeting in June 2018. With South and North Korea fielding a united team, Kim Yo Jong was invited to the south to represent Pyongyang in meetings with then-South Korean President Moon Jae-In and to attend the games. After arriving at Incheon airport “not showing any bit of excitement or happiness that she was there … [almost] as if she had walked into her own living room,” she later attended the games’ opening ceremony, where she was seated directly behind Moon and U.S. Vice President Mike Pence, who famously chose to “ignore” her presence behind him. “Throughout the evening, from certain camera angles, it seemed she was lording it over Mike Pence, seated right behind,” Lee said, adding that the visual was sought by North Korea for propaganda reasons. “Later, I learned that this was not an accident,” he said. “Kim Yo Jong had insisted that she be seated behind them – above President Moon and Vice President Pence – or else ‘We go back home.’” “So accommodations were made,” he explained. The Sister: North Korea’s Kim Yo Jong, the Most Dangerous Woman in the World by Sung-Yoon Lee is about Kim Jong Un’s increasingly powerful sister, tapped to be his successor to lead North Korea. (Courtesy of PublicAffairs) The next day, Kim Yo Jong visited Moon at his offices in Seoul and for a short while became “a star” on the world stage, with many seemingly enchanted by the sudden emergence of a female North Korean leader. More importantly, after months of escalating provocations between her brother and Trump, her message of peace and reconciliation seemed to resonate as more sincere than if it had come from Kim Jong Un. ‘Don’t trust her’ Lee says that is a mistake he hopes to shatter with his biography, arguing Kim Yo Jong will be wheeled out as the friendly face of the North’s global outreach when it once again tries to appear open to compromise. He called for the world not to be fooled. “She is the No. 2 official in arguably the world’s most tyrannical regime,” he added. “What she says, no matter how sweet it may sound, must be questioned and cannot be accepted at face value.” A switch back to diplomatic niceties after the ongoing round of provocations is as predictable as the plot to Rambo 4, Lee said, noting that “[Rambo] First Blood was a good movie, but by the time you’ve seen Rambo 4, you have a pretty good idea how the movie ends.” As the true director of North Korea’s propaganda department since 2012, he said, Kim Yo Jong was a skilled political operator, and would be even more at ease on the world stage her second time around. Kim Yo Jong, right, shakes hands with South Korea’s director of the National Security Office, Chung Eui-yong, June 12, 2019 as she delivers a condolence message in Panmunjom in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) from her brother to the family of former South Korean first lady Lee He-ho, who passed away. (Korean Central News Agency/AFP) “People will want to believe in her message, and perhaps even share in the credit that she seeks peace and denuclearization,” Lee said. “Don’t trust her. Don’t believe everything she says. Don’t patronize her.” “She’s not to be underestimated,” he said. Eventually, Kim Yo Jong may position herself to take over the reins from her brother, even if the current leader’s daughter, Kim Ju Ae, born in 2013, has been slated as the heir apparent in Pyongyang. “When [Ju Ae] is in her mid-20s, and comes to view her auntie as expendable, cumbersome…
US urges China to push Iran to pressure Houthis over Red Sea attacks
U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has asked Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to use Beijing’s influence on Iran to push it to stop the Houthis in Yemen from attacking Red Sea trade routes. The appeal came during two days of meetings in Bangkok between the pair, according to a senior Biden administration official who spoke on condition of anonymity according to rules set by the White House. Over 12 hours, the pair also discussed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Myanmar’s civil war, North Korea, Israel’s war with Hamas, the South China Sea, fentanyl and artificial intelligence, the official said. It was their first meeting since Oct. 26, when Wang visited Washington in the run-up to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s trip to San Francisco in November for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, during which he also held direct talks with U.S. President Joe Biden. The official said the meeting was meant to build on the commitments made during that summit, including to reinstate military-to-military talks and to stem illicit Chinese exports of precursors for fentanyl, which has been called a leading cause of death for American adults. A working group on counternarcotics would be established on Tuesday and both Military-Maritime Consultative Agreement Meetings and talks about regulating artificial intelligence would be held in the Spring. “The two sides are committed to continuing these strategic channels of communication,” the official said, adding there would be “a telephone call between the two leaders at some point in the coming months.” Diplomatic telephone On the apparently widening conflict in the Middle East that began with the attack on Israel by Hamas on Oct. 7, the White House official said Sullivan had pressed Wang to use Beijing’s influence on Iran to push it to end attacks by Houthis on trade ships transiting the Red Sea. The Houthis’ latest attack took place Friday and this time directly targeted a U.S. warship, the USS Carney, which was patrolling the area to try to prevent further attacks in the lucrative trade route. Both Hamas and the Houthis have been labeled “proxies” of Iran by the United States, with Tehran not viewed as having direct control of either group but being accused of funding and training both. The Houthis, meanwhile, are accused of targeting trade ships off Yemen’s coast in response to Israel’s invasion of Hamas-controlled Gaza. As a major trading nation, China had its own interests in stopping the attacks on the Red Sea route and had the ability to pressure Iran as one of the biggest buyers of its oil, the White House official said. “We would characterize both the economic and trade relationship as giving Beijing leverage over Iran to some extent. How they choose to use that, of course, is China’s choice,” the official said. “Iran’s influence over the Houthis, and the Houthis’ destabilization of global shipping, raises serious concerns not just for the U.S. and China but for global trade,” they added. “There should be a clear interest in China in trying to quiet some of those attacks.” The civil war in Myanmar was also discussed by Sullivan and Wang, building off talks between Sullivan and Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin on Friday, during which the official said Sullivan “stressed the importance” of getting humanitarian aid into Myanmar. However, the official said the United States was less hopeful about China’s assistance in pushing North Korea to end its growing nuclear weapons program or its recent provision of ballistic missiles to Russia. “I’m not sure I would characterize anything recently as constructive,” the official said, adding the United States still hoped China would come round to helping “bring us back to the path of denuclearization.”
A Critical Survey of the Biggest 5 Economies: The Survey Reportika
A critical Survey of the Biggest 5 economies of the world viz the USA, China, Japan, Germany and India titled Survey Reportika.
US national security advisor to meet Chinese Foreign Minister in Bangkok
U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and China’s foreign minister Wang Yi are set to meet in Bangkok Friday and Saturday to build on a pledge to deepen their dialogue, despite the two superpowers’ differences on Taiwan. This meeting will be the first high-level talk between the two nations since the U.S. President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping met in the United States in November. “During the new round of meetings, (Wang) will state China’s position on China-U.S. relations, including the Taiwan issue, and exchange views with the U.S. side on international and regional issues of common interest,” a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson told reporters at a regular press conference on Friday. Upon his arrival in Thailand’s capital Friday, Sullivan first met with Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin and Foreign Minister Parnpree Bahiddha-nukara and discussed ties between the two nations as well as regional and global issues, including efforts to address the worsening crisis in Myanmar. During the meeting, Sullivan emphasized “U.S. commitment to expanding collaboration on trade and investment, accelerating the transition to a clean energy future, deepening the two nations’ people-to-people ties, and broadening our security cooperation as we promote a free and open Indo-Pacific,” according to a White House statement. Thailand’s Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, left, talks with U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan at the government house in Bangkok, Thailand, Friday, Jan. 26, 2024. (Government Spokesman Office via AP) Thailand, one of the U.S.’s major non-NATO allies and geographically important to the region, however, reaffirmed its non-interference approach. On the China-Taiwan issue, for instance, the Thai side reiterated before the meeting its “vision on Thai-Chinese relations, based on Thailand’s One China policy as well as common interests and international principles that the two countries adhere to, towards the building of a Thailand-China community with a shared future for enhanced stability, prosperity and sustainability.” Regarding planned talks between Sullivan and Wang, a Thai foreign ministry spokesperson said: “The meeting is actually arranged bilaterally between the two sides. We did not have any role in organizing for the meeting or anything but we are pleased that Thailand is the venue for such a meeting.” “And we are confident that the dialogue between the two sides will contribute to peace and security and development of the countries in the regions also at the global stage as well.” Dr. Isa Gharti, a public policy researcher at Chiang Mai University, believes the meeting between Sullivan and Wang stresses Thailand’s strategic position as the middleman for the super powers. “The country has a long history of balancing its relationship with China and the U.S., which is appropriate for it to be the host,” Gharti told Radio Free Asia. “The role as a facilitator to solve high-level conflict is a positive thing for the Srettha administration,” he added, referring to the current prime minister’s government. Thailand and China will celebrate 50 years of diplomatic ties in 2025, marking 190 years of their relationship. Edited by Taejun Kang and Mike Firn.
Military battalion camp seized by Kachin rebels in Myanmar’s Shan state
An ethnic army has captured the military camp of the junta’s Light Infantry Battalion No. 123 in northern Myanmar’s Shan state, residents and the rebel group said Thursday, capping months of fighting for control of a key trade route with China. The loss of the base means that ethnic rebels now control the entire 130-kilometer (80-mile) trade route from Muse township on the border with China to Hseni, located some 50 kilometers (30 miles) north of northern Shan state’s largest town of Lashio. It is also the latest in a number of setbacks for the military since an ethnic offensive in late October that has seen the Three Brotherhood Alliance capture 15 cities in northern Shan state, seize control of more than 200 military camps, and force the surrender of some 4,000 junta troops. The Kachin Independence Army, or KIA, took control of the camp on Wednesday evening after initially overrunning Nam Hpat Kar town on Jan. 17, KIA spokesman Col. Naw Bu told RFA Burmese. “We heard that the military camp at Nam Hpat Kar was seized around 3 p.m. or 4 p.m., but we haven’t received any details from the field yet,” he said. “We haven’t been able to get a phone connection through.” A resident of Nam Hpat Kar who, like others interviewed for this report, spoke on condition of anonymity due to security concerns, told RFA that KIA soldiers entered the military compound on Wednesday, prompting junta troops to flee toward nearby Tarmoenye township. “I’m sure the KIA troops are now stationed at Light Infantry Battalion No. 123 camp,” he said. “Since the troops retreated toward Tarmoenye, they are following them and clearing them out. The damage to the village is huge.” Ethnic rebels began attacking Nam Hpat Kar township in late August, but the KIA only started the fight for control of the Light Infantry Battalion camp on Jan. 14. Junta forces responded to attacks on the camp with heavy artillery and airstrikes, residents said. The KIA claimed on Jan. 16 that it was able to shoot down a junta jet fighter during fighting in the area. Civilian casualties Another resident of Nam Hpat Kar, who was forced to leave his home amid the fighting, told RFA that the military airstrikes destroyed area homes and caused civilian casualties. “The [KIA] also broke into the houses and fired from inside of them, so the military attacked the houses based on information they received,” he said. “At the moment, out of the eight houses I know [were fired on], four were reduced to ashes. The rest of the houses no longer have walls or roofs.” The resident said at least two civilians were killed in the fighting, but was unable to provide additional details. He said villagers are afraid to return home because of the threat of additional airstrikes. More than 20,000 people live in Nam Hpat Kar, which consists of four wards and nine village tracts. Aid workers said that some 10,000 residents of villagers close to the military camp were forced to flee to monasteries in the townships of Namhkan, Muse, Lashio and other nearby areas amid the clashes. Another resident of Nam Hpat Kar told RFA that, as of Jan. 17, he had documented the deaths of at least 24 civilians due to military airstrikes and artillery fire, and said at least 100 homes had been damaged. The KIA claims to have downed a junta jet fighter during the Nam Hpat Kar battle. On Jan. 25, 2024 an image of the downed jet from the Battle of Nam Hpat Kar was released. (Provided by Citizen Journalist) A social worker who fled from Nam Hpat Kar due to the fighting said on Thursday that the number of casualties and extent of the damage had yet to be fully accounted for, due to severed internet and telephone lines. The junta has not released any statement about the situation in Nam Hpat Kar. KIA demonstrates importance A former military officer, who now works as a commentator on military and political issues in Myanmar, said that the capture of the camp in Nam Hpat Kar is a demonstration of the junta’s increasing weakness in the region. “The attack took 10 days, and we should praise the bravery [of the junta troops] who resisted it,” he said. But he criticized the military’s leadership for failing to do enough to hold the camp. “[Nearby] Kutkai and Namhkan [townships were] seized by the [Ta’ang National Liberation Army],” the former officer said, referring to one of the three ethnic armies that, along with the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Arakan Army, form the Three Brotherhood Alliance. “Now, Nam Hpat Kar, which is located at the top of the road heading to Namhkan, has been captured. So now it is all done, and [the KIA] has demonstrated the importance of its role [in fighting the military],” he said. In the five months of fighting between ethnic armies and the junta for Nam Hpat Kar, more than 50 civilians – including women and children – were killed, according to residents. Translated by Htin Aung Kyaw. Edited by Joshua Lipes and Matt Reed.
China unlikely to invade Taiwan in next 5 years: survey
China is unlikely to invade Taiwan in the next five years, a survey released this week showed. But Beijing is capable of executing “a law enforcement-led quarantine and a People’s Liberation Army (PLA)-led blockade of Taiwan,” according to experts who took part in a survey by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released on Monday. A quarantine to substantially reduce trade into, and communications with, Taiwan would put significant pressure on the island and could serve as the prelude to a blockade by the PLA or a full-on amphibious invasion, said the experts. The new poll – “Surveying the Experts: U.S. and Taiwan Views on China’s Approach to Taiwan” – was released by the CSIS’s China Power Project just after Taiwan elected its new president, Lai Ching-te. It was conducted from Nov. 28 to Dec. 15, 2023 – before the presidential poll – with the participation of 87 experts, 52 from the U.S. and 35 from Taiwan, all leading academics or former officials. Invasion unlikely Responding experts said that in the next five years, “if China seeks to coerce Taiwan, Beijing’s most likely course of action would be a law enforcement-led quarantine of Taiwan.” But “if China’s goal is to force immediate unification of Taiwan, a PLA-led highly kinetic joint blockade” is the most likely scenario, according to 80% of respondents. Without U.S. intervention, most experts did not believe Taiwan could resist a blockade for more than three months. Just 26% of U.S. respondents and 17% of Taiwanese respondents agreed that China has the military capability to effectively launch an amphibious invasion of Taiwan within the next five years. The rest had much lower confidence in China’s ability as such invasion would require “a much larger commitment of military forces than a quarantine or blockade, and the operations involved would be significantly more complicated.” Soldiers at the 2nd Battalion of the Taiwanese army’s 58th Artillery Command conduct an exercise in Jan. 2024. (Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense) Taiwanese experts seemed to have a lower perception of the China threat compared to U.S. experts – only 51% of them believed that China could sustain a high-intensity conflict for more than a year versus 71% of American respondents. Among U.S. experts, 44% believed China would be willing to detonate nuclear weapons against U.S. or coalition forces during a Taiwan conflict, but only 11% of Taiwanese experts thought the same. U.S. support While virtually all U.S. respondents were confident that their country would intervene militarily in the case of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, 9% of Taiwanese respondents said they were not confident. And 11% of Taiwanese experts were not confident that the U.S. would intervene if China conducted a joint sea and air blockade of Taiwan. Some 63% of U.S. experts believed that America would step in against a quarantine of Taiwan, but only 40% of their Taiwanese peers thought so. The survey’s authors explained that these lower levels of confidence stemmed from various factors, the first of which was that “U.S. support for Taiwan is conditional.” “The goal of U.S. policy toward Taiwan has long been to avoid moves by either side of the Taiwan Strait to unilaterally shift the status quo,” they said, “and if Taiwan’s actions precipitate a conflict, the United States may be disinclined to intervene.” The second factor lies in China’s campaign of misinformation and disinformation in Taiwan about U.S. willingness to support Taipei. “These efforts are aimed at causing the Taiwan public to lose hope and feel that unification is their only option,” the survey authors said. Beijing, on the other hand, “has little doubt that Washington would defend Taiwan,” they added. Edited by Taejun Kang and Mike Firn.
