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Category: Australia

Manila rejects Beijing’s account of sea encounter

Editor06 mins

Manila for the second time this month has dismissed China’s version of a military encounter near the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea. On Monday the Chinese military said it had monitored and warned off a Philippine warship that it accused of “trespassing” into the waters around the Scarborough Shoal. Senior Col. Tian Junli, the spokesperson for China’s Southern Theater Command, said in a statement that the Philippine frigate “intruded into the waters adjacent to China’s Huangyan Dao without the approval of the Chinese government,” referring to the shoal by its Chinese name. He said the naval and air forces of the Command “tracked, monitored, warned, and restricted the Philippine military vessel according to law.” On Tuesday, Philippine authorities responded with their own version of the incident. National Security Adviser Eduardo M. Año said the Navy’s BRP Conrado Yap (PS-39) “conducted routine patrol operations in the general vicinity of Bajo de Masinloc (Scarborough Shoal) without any untoward incident.” “China is again over hyping this incident and creating unnecessary tensions between our two nations,” Año said. This is the second time in three weeks that China claimed that Manila “violated China’s sovereignty over the reef” and that Chinese law enforcement forces drove Philippine ships away. Both times, the Philippines dismissed China’s claims and insisted that under international law, the Philippines had every right to patrol the area. Test of U.S. commitment “Such incidents will re-occur with increased frequency,” said Carlyle Thayer, a veteran political analyst based in Canberra, Australia. China seized Scarborough Shoal after a standoff with the Philippines in 2012 and has maintained control over it since. Manila brought Beijing to an international tribunal over its claims in the South China Sea, including of the islands, and won but China has refused to accept the 2016 ruling. “China considers Philippine vessels’ activities near the shoal a violation of China’s sovereignty and will react strongly every time,” said Thayer, adding “Beijing doesn’t want to be seen as weak.” This undated photo provided on Sept. 26, 2023, by the Philippine Coast Guard shows the anchor used to hold the floating barrier which was removed by a coast guard diver, in the Scarborough Shoal. Credit: Philippine Coast Guard via AP Another South China Sea scholar, Hoang Viet from the Ho Chi Minh City University of Law, said that the recent rapprochement between the Philippines and the United States under current Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has also contributed to China’s ramped up response. In February, Manila granted the U.S. access to four more military bases in the country. “China wants to warn those countries which, in its opinion, are seeking to move closer to the U.S.,” Viet said. “With such incidents, Beijing also wants to test Washington’s commitment in the region, especially as the U.S. is being drawn into so many global conflicts and crises,” the analyst said.  The U.S. has repeatedly stated that Article IV of the 1951 U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty extends to armed attacks on Philippine armed forces, public vessels, and aircraft – including those of its Coast Guard – anywhere in the South China Sea. For its part, Manila has “embarked on a tactic of assertive transparency,” as noted by Ray Powell from Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation. That means incidents in disputed waters are being reported in a timely and transparent manner.  In late September, the Philippines said China had installed a 300-meter (984-foot) floating barrier to block Philippine fishermen from accessing the waters around the shoal. The Philippine coast guard carried out a “special operation” to cut the barrier and remove its anchor. Jason Gutierrez in Manila contributed to this article. Edited by Mike Firn and Taejun Kang.

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Migration throws Laos’ communist government a lifeline

Editor015 mins

In a rare moment in the international spotlight, Laos was the topic of two articles published by major world media outlets in early October, although not with the sort of headlines the ruling communist party wanted to read.  The BBC ran a piece on October 8 under the banner: “’I feel hopeless’: Living in Laos on the brink”. Days later, the Washington Post went with “China’s promise of prosperity brought Laos debt — and distress”, presumably because the editors thought Laos isn’t interesting enough unless tales of Chinese debt traps are also included.  But both gave an accurate sense of the grim situation most Laotians, especially the young, now find themselves in. As the BBC report began: “Confronted with a barren job market, the Vientiane resident holds no hope of finding work at home, and instead aims to become a cleaner or a fruit picker in Australia.”  Laotians are leaving the country in droves. My estimate is that around 90,000, perhaps more, will have migrated officially by the end of the year, joining around 51,000 who left last year and the hundreds of thousands who have moved abroad earlier. Laos has had a horrendous last few years.  The landlocked Southeast Asian nation didn’t do particularly well during the COVID-19 pandemic. Since the early months of 2021, it has had one of the worst inflation rates in Asia, peaking at 41.3 percent in February and still hovering at around 25 percent. The kip, the local currency, is collapsing; it hit an all-time low in mid-September when it was trading in commercial banks at 20,000 to the U.S.  dollar, compared to around 8000 (US$44) in 2019. An acquaintance in Vientiane tells me that it used to cost 350,000 kip to fill up his car with diesel in 2019; today, it’s closer to 1.2 million kip (US$58)  and the price keeps rising—and bear in mind that the minimum wage is now just 1.6 million kip  (US$77), per a tiny increase in October. Another correspondent of mine, a foreigner, says he’s now leaving: “It’s got to the point where I’m just… done!”  Motorcyclists line up for gas in Laos amid shortages, May 10, 2022. Credit: RFA The communist government is hopeless in responding, and not even the rare resignation of a prime minister last December has added any vitality to its efforts. Worse, far larger structural problems remain. The national debt, probably around 120 percent of GDP, puts Laos at risk of defaulting every quarter. It cannot continue to borrow so the authorities are jacking up taxation, and because of flagrant corruption, the burden falls more heavily than it should on the poor.  Looking ahead, what is the national debt if not a tax deferred on the young and yet-to-be-born? There are not enough teachers in schools and not enough schools for students. Attendance rates have plummeted. Public expenditure on education and health, combined, has fallen from 4.2 percent of GDP in 2017 to just 2.6 percent last year, according to the World Bank’s latest economic update. More than two-thirds of low-income families say they have slashed spending on education and healthcare since the pandemic began, it also found. According to the BBC report, 38.7 percent of 18-to-24-year-olds are not in education, employment or training, by far the highest rate in Southeast Asia. A Laotian youth told me that few people want to waste money on bribes to study at university when they can quickly study Korean and try to get a high-paying factory job in Seoul.  In June, an International Labour Organization update gave a summary of the numbers of Laotians leaving by official means, as estimated by the Ministry of Labour and Social Welfare:  Thailand 2022: 51,501 (29,319 women) 2023, up until 30 June: 42,246 (23,126 women) Malaysia 2022: 469 men Japan 2022: 312 (122 women) 2023, up until 30 June: 289 (120 women)  South Korea, long-term (3 years contract) 2022: 796 (194 women) 2023, up until 30 June: 389 (54 women)  South Korea, short-term seasonal workers (5 months contract) 2022: 1,356 (598 women) The first thing to note is that this is emigration by official channels. To Japan and South Korea, that official process is arduous and involves a lengthy contract procedure before leaving the country. However, the workers in South Korea can earn in a day what they would earn in a month in Laos.  It’s less strenuous getting to Thailand although a considerable number of Laotians emigrate there by unofficial means, hopping across the border and not registering that they’ve left. In 2019, the Thai authorities estimated that there were around 207,000 Lao migrants working legally and 30,000 illegally, but the actual number of legal and illegal workers could have been as high as 300,000. (No one really knows how many Laotians work illegally in Thailand.) Also, consider how many Laotians have left the country so far this year compared to 2022. If we assume that emigration flows keep the same pace in the last six months of 2023 as they did in the first six, around 84,000 Laotians will have officially emigrated to Thailand by the end of this year, up from 51,000 in 2022.   In April, a National Assembly delegate castigated the government for the fact that “workers have left factories in Laos for jobs in other countries because the wages paid by factories here are not keeping pace with the rising cost of living…As a result, factories in Laos are facing a labor shortage.”  Saving grace? But isn’t this actually a saving grace for the communist Lao People’s Revolutionary Party (LPRP), at least in the short term? Much woe betide is made of Laos’ land-locked geography but it is rather convenient to border five countries, four of which are wealthier, if you want to avoid a situation of having disaffected, unemployed or poorly paid youths hanging around doing nothing but getting increasingly angry at their dim prospects. Conventional wisdom holds that authoritarian regimes constrain emigration as it can lead to mass labor shortages, one reason…

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Police arrest former opposition councilor amid call to boycott poll

Editor011 mins

Hong Kong police have arrested a former pro-democracy member of the city’s District Council and prison welfare activist — amid calls for a boycott of forthcoming district elections, which are open to “patriots only.” Derek Chu, a 46-year-old former directly elected councilor who resigned in 2021 before being forced to take an oath of loyalty to the Hong Kong and Chinese governments, was arrested in Shatin on Tuesday on suspicion of breaching the city’s mandatory pension law, police told the paper. His arrest comes as the government moves ahead with an “election” process that will slash the number of directly elected seats on the District Council by 80%, while ensuring that almost nobody in the city’s once-vibrant opposition camp will stand for election again, the result of ongoing arrests of pro-democracy figures and rule changes requiring political vetting. “At about 12 noon, Derek Chu was taken to an office at Manulife Plaza in Kwun Tong by the police for evidence collection,” the report said. “He was later taken to a food store in W Plaza in Mong Kok and Fuk Keung Industrial Building in Tai Kok Tsui for investigation.” Those locations are linked to Chu’s “Migratory Bird” platform to support prisoners, which raised money via the As One online shopping platform – part of the “yellow economic circle of pro-democracy businesses” – to support his prison work. He is currently being held by the Sham Shui Po Crime Division pending further investigation, after his home was also searched and documents confiscated, the paper reported. Pan-democratic legislators announce their resignation from Hong Kong’s Legislative Council in Hong Kong, Nov. 11, 2020. Credit: Tyrone Siu/Reuters Chu was a member of the last directly elected District Council, which saw a landslide victory for pro-democracy candidates amid record turnout that was widely seen as a ringing public endorsement of the 2019 protest movement. He resigned his seat along with many like-minded colleagues amid an ongoing crackdown on dissent under a national security law imposed on the city by Beijing from July 2020. ‘Patriots’ only The government later changed the Legislative Council electoral rules to ensure only “patriots” loyal to Beijing could stand as candidates or hold any kind of public office, prompting record-low turnout of 30.2% in Legislative Council elections in December 2021 compared with more than 70% in the last District Council poll. Officials then rewrote the District Council poll rules in May, citing a “disastrous” result in the 2019 election, sparking calls from overseas activists for a boycott of the forthcoming poll on Dec. 10. “Abandon illusions, boycott this fake election,” read an Oct. 16 statement on Facebook signed by dozens of former pro-democracy councilors. “We, the last district councilors to be elected by the citizens of Hong Kong, solemnly declare that we will not recognize these so-called elections run by the Communist regime of Hong Kong, and call on all citizens of Hong Kong to boycott the election and the councilors it produces,” the statement said. It said candidates wishing to take part have to run a complex gamut of vetting from support for nomination to a slew of official recommendation letters to political background checks, “all of which runs counter to the democratic spirit,” warning that anyone who makes it to the list of candidates is “purely a permitted cheerleader for the regime.” It said the government also looks set to use the “election” as an opportunity to engage in “the political brainwashing of minors.” “This so-called election will actually take place under military totalitarian rule, and can have no fairness or legitimacy,” the councilors wrote. Australia-based former pro-democracy lawmaker Ted Hui, who signed the statement, said the forthcoming poll is a “huge step backwards for democracy” in Hong Kong. “Most of the seats will be controlled by the government,” Hui said. “We believe that it would be best for citizens to totally refuse to take part, to boycott [the election].” ‘Huge step backwards’ Some parties in the democratic camp have said they will field candidates, though it remains to be seen if their bid for candidacy will be accepted. The Democratic Party has said it hopes to field six candidates, and the Association of Democracy and People’s Livelihood wants to field two. Candidates celebrate after winning in the Legislative Council election in Hong Kong, December Dec. 20, 2021. The rules for the election were changed to ensure only ‘patriots’ loyal to Beijing could stand as candidates or hold any kind of public office. Credit: Lam Yik/Reuters But Hui said this could send a dangerous signal about complicity with the authorities, who have told opposition parties to give up any hope of “Western-style democracy” in the city. “One or two [pro-democracy candidates] might pass the test and get nominated, but this will do great harm, because it shows the people of Hong Kong that they agree with this huge step backwards for democracy,” he said. Former district councilor Sam Yip, who also signed the statement, said it was naive of pro-democracy parties to imagine it was worth contesting such elections. “It helps to whitewash these elections, which are illegal, unfair and inconsistent with the whole concept of democracy,” Yip said. “Their actions are actually ruining democracy.” ‘A screening process’ Secretary for Home and Youth Affairs Alice Mak, asked if the government is expecting turnout to fall in this year’s poll, said it wasn’t the most important thing. “We should not just look at the turnout in District Council elections, [which can be] affected by many factors, such as the weather, including whether it rains that day, whether there is a typhoon in the summer, and whether the weather will be too cold,” Mak said. “The most important thing is how to find patriots who sincerely serve the community and citizens through the electoral system,” she said. Former Hong Kong Island Eastern District councilor Derek Ngai, who also resigned to avoid taking his oath, said democrats faced with the oath of loyalty requirement feared being required to pay back two…

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Another brick wobbles in China’s Great Wall of debt

Editor012 mins

As China’s economic miracle has unraveled over the past several years, property giant Country Garden Holdings appeared to be an unassailable fortress redoubt. Rival Evergrande tried to restructure its debt, failed, and now its founder, Hui Ka Yan, once the richest man in China, is under house arrest. But Country Garden, until very recently, was considered safe as houses. On Tuesday the walls of the Country Garden redoubt crumbled, as the property giant missed a HK$470 million (US$60 million) loan repayment and issued a statement on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange warning that it wasn’t going to be able to repay all of its creditors – not even those that had extended it a grace period. The company has about US$200 billion in liabilities and close to US$10 billion in debt, it said in the Tuesday statement. “I think it’s not so much ‘final straw’ as ‘high profile symbol’ of the structural reversal in China’s property market bust. But it’s also possible that because of that, confidence in this fragile market will be further undermined,” said George Magnus, research associate at the China Centre, Oxford University, and the School of African and Oriental Studies in London. “The knock-on effects of a property bust in a market that’s as big as China’s are going to be remarkable,” added Magnus. “There simply isn’t anything that can compensate [for the problem] because nothing – least of all Xi’s new productive forces – is sufficiently big. It’ll keep the Chinese economy on a low-growth path with all the attendant consequences for unemployment, absent a major program of market reforms, which Xi is opposed to.” Chinese President Xi Jinping is famously opposed to “welfarism,” which he reportedly equates with laziness. A person rides a scooter past a construction site of residential buildings by Chinese developer Country Garden, in Tianjin, China Aug. 18, 2023. Credit: Reuters   Markets have found some solace in announcements emanating out of Beijing, suggesting that stimulus is on the way, but analysts are skeptical even though Hong Kong and Shanghai stocks rallied on Thursday, after China’s investment fund had bought a stake in the country’s banking giants. Bill Bishop of the widely read Sinocism newsletter commented, “The relatively small investment by Huijin in the four banks – 477 million RMB, about USD $65 million – is not meaningful financially,” adding that the investment fund Huijin had bought similar stakes in the past with the probable aim of achieving a short-term boost to stock values. ‘All the money in the world’ “They’ll respond with some stimulus but there isn’t enough money in the world to make a difference,” said Anne Stevenson-Yang, founder and research director at J Capital Research, “Consider,” she said: “If they lend an extra 1 trillion yuan (US$137 billion) – and bank lending is around 90% of financing in this economy – you get less than a 1% boost in credit. “Basically, so what?” Oxford’s Magnus agreed. “The speculation is that the central government will use its own balance sheet to announce a stimulus program of about 1 trillion yuan or about 0.7% GDP to breathe new life into the economy,” he said. “If it goes, as in the past, towards infrastructure and real estate projects, it’ll spur activity in the short term but leave China’s structural malaise worse. “What China needs is household demand and income stimulus, but this has been studiously avoided so far – and it’s not the CCP’s way.” Stevenson-Yang said, “We’re not going to see a bank failure, because they [the Communist Party] can control that. But the whole shadow sector has collapsed or is collapsing, and that erases a lot of personal wealth. “And local services are going away,” she added in a reference to the belt-tightening forced on local governments, which have even been reducing civil service salaries to make ends meet. Michael Pettis, Carnegie Endowment economist, writing on X, formerly known as Twitter, pointed out that there may be hidden liabilities for the banking sector with as-yet unknown consequences. “Mounting damage to banks’ balance sheets from the property meltdown could also make stabilizing other parts of the economy more difficult,” Pettis said. “This is likely to be what causes the most long-term damage to the economy … There is likely to be a lot more exposure in less direct forms. That’s because after three decades of soaring prices, it would be astonishing if Chinese banks didn’t have a lot of indirect exposure to the property market, partly reflected for example in the RMB 3.4 trillion in supplier trade payables estimated by Gavekal,” he wrote referring to research by Gavekal Research. The firm predicted that China’s property sector owes 3.4 trillion yuan in trade payables to their suppliers. “The major damage to the economy caused by a property sector collapse usually occurs not directly through the property sector but indirectly, through wealth effects and, above all, the impact on the banking system,” said Pettis. “With one of the biggest property sectors in history, and perhaps the most expensive real estate bubble since Japan in the 1980s, I’d be really surprised if we were near the end of the adjustment process.” Stability above all In its Tuesday statement Country Garden admitted, referring to its inability to meet debt commitments, “Such non-payment may lead to relevant creditors of the group demanding acceleration of payment of the relevant indebtedness owed to them or pursuing enforcement action.” A Chinese flag flutters in front of the logo of China Evergrande Group seen on the Evergrande Center in Shanghai, China September 22, 2021. Credit: Reuters   Property developer Evergrande’s collapse led to widespread “mortgage strikes” and protests China-wide in 2021 and 2022. The fear in Beijing is that Country Garden, which is heavily invested in third- and fourth-tier cities, where the economic crisis is at its worst, will lead to yet more protests. “The first and utmost priority of Xi and the CCP [Chinese Communist Party] is to maintain power, which means maintaining order and stability,” said Australia-based…

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Chinese police harass family of Washington DC student activist

Editor016 mins

An international student in the U.S. capital has been harassed by China’s state security police for pro-democracy activism on American soil, with his loved ones back in China hauled in by police for questioning and told to get him in line, Radio Free Asia has learned. Zhang Jinrui, a law student at Washington’s Georgetown University, said his family in China received an unexpected visit in June from state security police, who interrogated his father about Zhang’s level of patriotism and questioned him about his activities in the United States. “The state security police knocked on our door and took my father away for lengthy questioning,” Zhang told Radio Free Asia in a recent interview. “[They asked him] ‘Does this child of yours take part in pro-democracy activities? Do they usually love their country and the [ruling Chinese Communist] Party?’” “If not, you have to teach him to love his country and the party better,” the police said. “It’s not OK that he’s doing this, and it won’t do any good.” Zhang’s experience comes amid growing concern over Beijing’s “long-arm” law enforcement targeting overseas activists and students, who had expected to enjoy greater freedom of speech and association while living or studying in a democratic country. Zhang said the questioning of his father came after he took part in protests in support of the “white paper” protest movement in November 2022, and against Beijing’s hosting of the Winter Olympics in February. There are growing concerns over Beijing’s “long-arm” law enforcement targeting overseas activists and students. Here, “Viola,” a New York University graduate student, delivers a speech during a gathering to mark the third anniversary of the death of Chinese whistleblower Li Wenliang in New York on Feb. 5, 2023. Credit: Gemunu Amarasinghe/RFA Yet he wasn’t contacted at the time by police, who sometimes contact overseas Chinese nationals via social media platforms to get their message across.  “On the evening of June 29, I suddenly received a WeChat message from my sister saying ‘Contact me urgently, something happened,’” Zhang said. “The people from the police station had called my sister and asked about her [relative] in Washington, wanting to know if they took part in the Torch on the Potomac group, saying I was a key member.” Fear and self-censorship Torch on the Potomac was set up by students at the George Washington University in April, to provide a safe space for dissident activities by Chinese students. But Zhang was nonplussed by the accusation, saying that the group has yet to organize any activities, and that police have also been harassing the families of Chinese students who haven’t taken part in any activism at all. Calls to the Wusan police station, which is close to Zhang’s family home in the northeastern Chinese city of Shenyang, rang unanswered during office hours on Sept. 19. Several other Chinese students declined to be interviewed when contacted by Radio Free Asia. Sarah McLaughlin, senior scholar at The Foundation for Individual Rights in Education, said speaking to the foreign media could bring down further trouble on the heads of students who may already have seen their families hauled in for questioning. “I know that that’s something that international students have run into before,” she said. “They’ve gotten in trouble when they returned home for things they’ve said online while in the United States.” McLaughlin said the harassment of their families in China will have a chilling effect on students’ speech, even overseas. “There are definitely some real fears among these students, and there’s definitely self censorship,” she said. Classroom informants And the police aren’t the only source of such anxiety – there is also the risk of being reported by fellow students from China, who are encouraged via the Chinese Students and Scholars Associations to keep an eye on each other. A Georgetown University faculty member who asked to remain anonymous said the problem is becoming more and more serious, with Chinese students feeling unable to speak freely in class, for fear of being informed on by their Chinese classmates. Georgetown University student Zhang Jinrui says he was harassed by members of the Georgetown branch of the Chinese Students and Scholars Association as he was distributing flyers. Credit: Gemunu Amarasinghe/RFA Last year, when students at George Washington University put up posters on campus opposing China’s hosting of the 2023 Winter Olympics, the Chinese Embassy sent members of the campus branch of the Chinese Students and Scholars Association to tear them down again and put up posters denouncing their actions. “They even got in touch with the school, saying that the Chinese students who support democracy and oppose zero-COVID are racist,” Zhang said. “That’s why they set up the Torch on the Potomac, because a lot of their activities weren’t getting the support of the school.” George Washington University President Mark Wrighton admitted in a Feb. 8 statement that the removal of the posters was a mistake, and the university administration should have waited until they better understood the situation before acting. “We began to receive a number of concerns through official university reporting channels that cited bias and racism against the Chinese community,” Wrighton said. “I also received an email directly from a student who expressed concerns.” “I have since learned from our university’s scholars that the posters were designed by a Chinese-Australian artist, Badiucao, and they are a critique of China’s policies,” he said. “Upon full understanding, I do not view these posters as racist; they are political statements.” Neither Georgetown University nor George Washington University had responded to requests for comment on the renewed harassment of Chinese students in the United States by Sept. 19. A wall with posters at Georgetown University in Washington. Torch on the Potomac was set up by students at the George Washington University in April, to provide a safe space for dissident activities by Chinese students. Credit: Gemunu Amarasinghe/RFA Close contact with embassies Zhang said he has also been personally harassed by members of the Georgetown branch of the…

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Vietnam wants it all in balancing its ties with the US and China

Editor017 mins

President Joe Biden is heading to Vietnam for a visit that will upgrade bilateral relations to a “strategic comprehensive partnership,” a symbolic step that opens the door to wider cooperation between former Cold War foes who are now grappling with an assertive, powerful China.  The elevated status is a symbolic gesture that recognizes the developed state of U.S.-Vietnam ties, almost 30 years after they normalized diplomatic relations and a half century since the end of the Vietnam War.  But it doesn’t reflect a fundamental change in Vietnamese policy. Indeed, it should be seen as a manifestation of what Hanoi calls its omnidirectional and independent foreign policy. The overall growth of the relationship will remain hemmed in by the fact that the communist leaders who run Vietnam share  the same world view as those who control China. In a partnership hierarchy created by the Vietnamese government, at the very top are neighbors Laos and Cambodia. However, what was once Vietnam’s secure western flank is now a source of concern with China’s surge in influence through investment, lending, development projects, and corruption. Comprehensive strategic partnerships had been reserved for Vietnam’s friends since the days of the revolution: Russia, China, and India. In 2023, in recognition of their burgeoning economic relationship, Vietnam elevated South Korea to that pantheon, recently followed by Singapore and Australia, and soon Indonesia. Liu Jianchao [shown], the head of the Communist Party of China’s International Liaison Department, recently met with General Secretary of Communist Party of Vietnam, Nguyen Phu Trong. Credit: Andy Wong/AP file photo For the U.S., the leapfrog from Vietnam’s comprehensive partner to a comprehensive strategic partner is important for three reasons. First, for top leaders in Hanoi, symbolism does matter. That a former foe is now on a par with revolutionary era friends is a win.  Second, this upgrade will not please China, even though Hanoi has worked assiduously to try to convince Beijing that it is maintaining its independent foreign policy. It is inconceivable that Hanoi has not briefed Beijing on this, and Communist Party of Vietnam General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong has made party-to-party ties stronger than ever. He would not have approved the relationship upgrade if he felt insecure by Beijing’s reaction.  Five days before Biden’s expected arrival this weekend, Liu Jianchao, the head of the Chinese Communist Party’s  International Liaison Department met with Trong, who no doubt gave him further assurances. While Washington may want to rankle Beijing, which has overplayed its hand in the region with its aggressive South China Sea behavior and hawkish “Wolf Warrior” diplomacy, its real goal is to see Vietnam be strong enough to assert its vaunted autonomous foreign policy.   Hanoi will no doubt be sending a politburo-level delegation to assure Beijing that the upgrade is not a lurch towards the United States or in any way anti-Chinese, but a manifestation of Vietnam’s independent and omni-directional foreign policy. Third, at the bureaucratic level, it’s hoped that the upgrade gives political top cover for the line ministries to increase their cooperation with U.S. counterparts across a range of issues, from countering narcotics and human trafficking to security cooperation.  The upgrade does not automatically lead to more market access, more trade and investment, more port visits and other military engagements, but it won’t hurt their prospects either. In short, this upgrade is long overdue, and reflects the fact that the U.S. has far deeper ties than many other states ranked above it.  An economic imperative  The upgrade comes as Vietnam’s economy is slowing dramatically. Despite 8.5% growth in 2022, GDP only grew by 3.72% in the first six months of 2023, half the target. The Asian Development Bank and IMF have lowered their annual forecasts to 5.8% and 4.7%, respectively. While Vietnam has benefitted from corporate supply chain diversification out of China, that trend has also made the economy over-dependent on exports, which have fallen for five consecutive months, the longest slump in 14 years. In July, exports fell 3.5%. Industrial production contracted 1.8% in the first half of 2023, causing a 13% year-on-year increase in industrial layoffs. While Vietnam enjoys a large trade surplus with the U.S. – $44.3 billion in the first seven months of 2023 – that is down 24% year-on-year. Vietnam runs enormous trade deficits with China, as its manufactured goods are highly dependent on imported Chinese components. Without its exports to the U.S., Vietnam would run chronic trade deficits. As a direct foreign investor, the U.S. lags behind South Korea, Singapore, China, and Japan. In early 2023, Boeing announced a production facility, while Apple shifted an iPad production line out of China to Vietnam. But there’s plenty of room for growth. We should also not lose sight of portfolio investment from the U.S., where one fund alone has invested $1.5 billion in six projects.  An employee works at Heesung Electronics Vietnam factory in Hai Phong, Vietnam, Aug. 29, 2023. Vietnam’s economy is slowing, with GDP growth of only 3.72% in the first six months of 2023. Credit: Nhac Nguyen/AFP Corporate Vietnam is trying to make a splash in the U.S.. Electric vehicle maker VinFast broke ground on a $4 billion plant in North Carolina, and has seen wild stock valuations after its recent listing on NASDAQ. VinFast sees the United States as the key to its growth, if not viability, despite a rocky first nine months that saw few sales and a recall. The tech firm VNG, Vietnam’s first “unicorn,” has filed paperwork for its listing on NASDAQ. If Vietnam is to escape the middle-income trap, it’s through trade and investment ties with the U.S., not China. To that end, executives from a swath of U.S. semiconductor and other tech industry will be joining Biden’s trip. What remains missing in U.S. policy towards the Asia-Pacific is an economic architecture. Since the withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership in January 2017, the United States has abdicated its leadership. States are going along with the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) , but only to keep Washington…

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Philippine officials release footage of sea standoff, as senator pushes for inquiry

Editor09 mins

A senator called Wednesday for an inquiry into how the Philippines could strengthen control of its South China Sea territory, as the coast guard released footage from a standoff between Filipino and Chinese ships in disputed waters a day earlier.  The videos showed a convoy of Philippine boats and ships as they maneuvered past the China Coast Guard while sailing on a resupply mission to a remote military outpost in Ayungin Shoal (Second Thomas Shoal) in the Spratly Islands.  Two Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) ships, the BRP Cabra and BRP Sindangan, escorted the convoy. They had arranged a rendezvous with civilian boats contracted by the military on Monday before setting off for Ayungin Shoal the following day, Commander Jay Tarriela said.   The PCG spokesman challenged Chinese claims that its ships allowed the supply mission to proceed peacefully, and said that when the Philippine ships were within 2.5 nautical miles of reaching the shoal “we experienced dangerous maneuvers by four China Coast Guard vessels backed by four Chinese maritime militia.  “They executed different ways for the Philippine Coast Guard to be separated from the supply boats so that they would be able to prevent (them) from entering the shoal,” Tarriela told reporters.  Also on Wednesday, Sen. Risa Hontiveros alleged that the People’s Republic of China had continued to militarize portions of the West Philippine Sea, despite international condemnation. Manila uses that name for South China Sea waters that lie within its territory. During a speech in the Senate, Hontiveros called “for an inquiry, in aid of legislation, into further capacitating and empowering the Philippine Coast Guard to enable it to carry out its primary mission of enforcing Philippine law and upholding national sovereignty within the country’s maritime zones, particularly the West Philippine Sea.” China’s actions, she said, had led to an “unprecedented challenge to the Philippine Coast Guard’s primary mission of enforcing Philippine law, maintaining the country’s sovereignty and upholding vital national interests. In Beijing on Wednesday, China’s foreign ministry called on the Philippines “to immediately stop any actions that may complicate the situation on the ground.  “Let me stress that in response to what the Philippines did, China Coast Guard took necessary law enforcement action in accordance with the law,” ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said.  Tuesday’s incident followed one about two weeks ago where the China Coast Guard fired water cannons at the BRP Sierra Madre, a World War II-era ship deliberately run aground by the Philippines to serve as its military outpost in Ayungin Shoal.  The shoal is about 200 km (124 miles) from the western Philippine island of Palawan, and more than 1,000 km (621 miles) from China’s nearest major landmass, Hainan island. “Now, it has become clear that China has her eye on Ayungin Shoal. The water cannons, the military laser, the removal of a naval gun cover – all these severe provocations were against Philippine vessels making their way to Ayungin,” Hontiveros told the Senate on Wednesday. “China is actively blocking these missions because she does not want any further reinforcement to our most defiant sovereign marker in the West Philippine Sea, the BRP Sierra Madre.” Videos On Wednesday, Tarriela presented a video that showed a China Coast Guard ship blocking a Philippine Coast Guard ship from entering the shoal.  A second Chinese ship was positioned to intercept the Filipinos in case they got through the first cordon, the video showed.  “There are also other videos that we have showing that our supply boats were being blocked by China Coast Guard vessels and the four Chinese maritime militia,” he said.  “Well, this time our game plan really was to outmaneuver the China Coast Guard vessels … and make sure that the supply boats would be successful in entering the shoal,” Tarriela said.    A U.S. Navy plane flies over the Ayungin Shoal during a Philippine resupply mission to the BRP Sierra Madre, Aug. 22, 2023. Credit: Aaron Favila/AP     The Chinese ships issued radio challenges and warnings that said Beijing had “indisputable sovereignty” over the sea region, according to officials. The Chinese ships said they were allowing the Philippine Coast Guard and the supply boats to pass through “in the spirit of humanism.”  “[W]e don’t need permission from the People’s Republic of China and Ayungin Shoal is within our exclusive economic zone. We have the sovereign right over these waters,” Tarriela said. “Secondly, it is not true that they are humane or extended humanitarian assistance.” Journalists who traveled with the Philippine Coast Guard on Tuesday posted photos of a U.S. Navy P-8 Poseidon patrol and reconnaissance plane flying overhead during the resupply mission.  In Washington on Wednesday, officials at the Pentagon did not immediately respond to a BenarNews request for comment about the flight. On Monday, U.S., Australian and Philippine troops held an air assault drill in Rizal town, in the western island province of Palawan, about 108 nautical miles from Ayungin Shoal. BenarNews is an Ijreportika-affiliated online news organization.

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Pacific island countries facing faster sea level rise, UN says

Editor09 mins

The low-lying Pacific islands face severe threats due to rising sea levels, which are increasing quicker than anticipated, while heightened temperatures impact marine habitats, according to a new U.N. meteorological body report. The Pacific region is experiencing an approximate increase of 4 millimeters of sea level rise annually in certain regions, which is higher than the worldwide average of 3.4 mm per year, the World Meteorological Organization, or WMO, said in its 2022 State of the Climate report released on Friday. The Pacific islands most vulnerable to this rising sea level include nations such as Kiribati, Tuvalu, the Marshall Islands, and the Maldives. These low-lying nations, often no more than a few meters above sea level, are alarmingly at the forefront of this crisis. Their unique geographies and limited land mass make them especially susceptible to even the slightest increase in sea level, threatening their very existence and the livelihoods of their residents. Separately, the report added that ocean heat and acidification threaten vulnerable marine ecosystems and their way of life. It said that weather-related disasters and climate change impacts are posing socio-economic risks and effects on key sectors like agriculture in the South-West Pacific region, which comprises all countries between Malaysia and Kiribati. The ocean absorbs over 90% of the surplus heat in our climate system, the WMO said, as the warming is responsible for about 40% of the average global sea-level increase due to the thermal expansion of seawater. It also impacts ocean currents and storm patterns. In 2022, the South-West Pacific experienced 35 recorded natural disasters that killed more than 700 people, with floods accounting for over 70% of these incidents, according to the report. These events impacted over 8 million individuals, inflicting an economic toll nearing U.S.$9 billion. In the Philippines and Fiji, storms were the predominant reason for the high death toll and the many affected individuals. A woman walks past a flooded market caused by monsoon rains and the recent typhoon Doksuri, in Balagtas, Bulacan province, Philippines, July 29, 2023. Credit: Reuters Even though the number of reported disaster events decreased in 2022, economic losses increased mainly due to a series of flooding events in Australia. Last year’s flood damage of U.S.$8.5 billion was over four times the 20-year average from 2002 to 2021. “Early warning is one of the most effective ways of reducing damage from disasters, as it empowers people to make risk-informed decisions for food security, as well as other sectors,” said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas. “Despite continuous efforts to strengthen multi-hazard early warning systems, the present report clearly shows that there are still significant gaps to be addressed to strengthen these systems to reduce the adverse impacts of hydrometeorological hazards in the region.” El Nino this year might make it worse The WMO said the three-year-long La Nina event, from 2020 to the start of 2023, had a temporary cooling influence, though 2022 still ranks within the top ten warmest years for the region, with the mean temperature of 0.2 to 0.3 degrees Celsius higher than during the last intense La Nina event in 2011. The report said that prominent marine heatwaves persisted for over six months in a vast region northeast of Australia and south of Papua New Guinea, specifically in the Solomon and Coral Seas. The region has now entered El Nino, which means drier and hotter weather. “This will have a big impact on the South-West Pacific region as it is frequently associated with higher temperatures, disruptive weather patterns and more marine heatwaves and coral bleaching,” said Taalas.  According to the WMO, the upper ocean (between zero and 700 meters below the surface) has warmed since 1993 in most of the Pacific’s South-West region. The report said that many regions in the Pacific region, including the Solomon Sea, Banda and Timor Seas, and regions east of the Philippines and the southern shoreline of Indonesia, have experienced significant warming, with the rates two to three times higher than the global average. The WMO said the glacier size in the western part of the Indonesian island of New Guinea decreased by 15% from 0.27 to 0.23 square kilometers between July 2021 and April 2022, while ice thickness dropped 24 meters from June 2010 to early 2021, with only 6 meters remaining in December 2022. July had warmest ocean temperature Earlier this month, another report from the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, or C3S, said the global average sea surface temperatures continued to rise after a long period of unusually high temperatures since April 2023, reaching a new high of 20.96 degrees Celsius (69.73 degrees Fahrenheit) in July. Global ocean temperatures are usually warmest in March, so scientists say the record will likely keep increasing. Overall, the global mean sea surface temperature for the month surpassed the 1991-2020 average by 0.51 degrees Celsius, Copernicus said in its report on July 8. For July, the North Atlantic recorded temperatures of 1.05 C higher than usual, while marine heatwaves were observed south of Greenland, in the Labrador Sea, within the Caribbean region, and throughout the Mediterranean Sea. “These records have dire consequences for both people and the planet exposed to ever more frequent and intense extreme events,” said Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of the C3S. “2023 is currently the third warmest year to date at 0.43ºC above the recent average, with the average global temperature in July at 1.5°C above pre industrial levels.” “Even if this is only temporary, it shows the urgency for ambitious efforts to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions, which are the main driver behind these records,” she said. July also had the warmest global air temperature, according to the WMO. Edited by Mike Firn and Taejun Kang.

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Will US break APEC rules if Hong Kong leader barred from summit?

Editor09 mins

Chinese authorities claimed that it would be a “violation of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) rules” if the United States bars Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu from attending the APEC leaders summit in San Francisco in November. The claim came after media reports that Washington plans to prohibit Lee from attending the meeting of 21 regional economies.  But the claim is misleading. APEC guidelines state visiting delegates are responsible for arranging their visas if they require them. The Hong Kong leader is under sanctions that bar his entry into the U.S. In a report published on July 27, The Washington Post cited unnamed White House officials as saying that the U.S. has decided to bar Lee from participating in the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meetings (AELM) to be held in San Francisco from Nov. 15  to 17, 2023.  In response to the report, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said that refusing to invite Lee due to current U.S. sanctions against him was a mistake which “blatantly violates APEC rules and gravely contravenes the U.S. commitment as the host.” Lee currently cannot obtain any U.S. immigrant or non-immigrant visas due to an earlier U.S. presidential order and subsequent sanctions imposed on him and 10 other Hong Kong officials implicated in a 2020 government crackdown against democracy protestors. Hong Kong’s government pointed out in a separate statement that as the host of AELM, the U.S. had a basic responsibility to invite Hong Kong’s leader to the meeting. However the claim is misleading. Below is what AFCL discovered.  Is the AELM host responsible for inviting the leaders of all APEC members? Yes. Article 4 of APEC’s guidelines for hosting meetings state that the host is supposed to send official invitations at least eight weeks in advance of the meeting, after deciding upon the meeting’s location and time.  The guidelines also say: “APEC Leaders implicitly understand that they are invited to attend this meeting; the letter of invitation from the host economy’s leader is simply a formality.”  But Matthew Goodman, a former National Security Council staff member who personally helped prepare for APEC meetings, told AFCL that APEC’s guidelines are neither related to international law nor legally binding. The explanation of rules concerning invitations and visa preparations for countries participating in APEC meetings. (Screenshots taken from APEC’s official website) Will invited representatives always be able to attend AELM? No. Section 12 of the guidelines states that all delegates invited to attend APEC meetings are responsible for arranging any required travel documents themselves. The section does not state that the host is required to issue them visas or waive policy or laws that would prohibit a person from entering its borders.           “Given that the domestic laws of host countries must be respected, it isn’t right to claim that the U.S. is violating APEC’s rules,” Goodman says.     What will happen to Lee? Unknown. A State Department spokesperson told AFCL that members of a foreign delegation must abide by U.S. laws and regulations when participating in APEC activities.  “The U.S. will work with Russia and Hong Kong to ensure they participate in AELM ‘in an appropriate way’,” said the spokesperson without elaborating further.  Russian President Vladimir Putin is in a similar situation to Lee as a result of U.S. sanctions put on him following the start of the Russo-Ukrainian war in 2022.  This means Both Lee and Putin would need to secure a special visa waiver from the U.S. in order to attend this year’s AELM in San Francisco.  The APEC Secretariat has not responded to inquiries about Hong Kong and Russian leaders as of press time. Meanwhile, a spokesperson from Hong Kong’s Chief Executive Office reiterated its earlier call on the U.S. to abide by APEC’s rules when inviting leaders to attend AELM.  “Hong Kong will attend the APEC meeting in accordance with APEC rules, guidelines and practices,” the spokesperson told AFCL. APEC guidelines state that representatives can remotely attend AELM and other preparatory meetings leading up to the conference.  Is there a history of a host refusing to invite APEC member economies to AELM?  Yes – particularly in the case of APEC member Chinese Taipei, as Taiwan is referred to by the 21-member grouping. China strongly objects to Taiwan’s participation as it regards the island as part of China although Taiwan is self-governing.  When China hosted AELM in 2001, it did not invite any Taiwanese representatives, despite then-Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian’s expressed desire to attend in person. South Korea, the host of AELM in 2016, also refused to invite then-President of Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan Wang Jin-pyng to the meeting, requesting that Taiwan instead send an economic official rather than a political figure.  Australia, which hosted AELM in 2007, rejected Tsai Ing-wen, who had just left her position as vice premier of Taiwan’s Executive Yuan, for similar reasons. Former Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian expressed regret and dissatisfaction over China’s refusal to allow Taiwan’s delegates to attend the APEC meeting (Screenshot taken from the official website of Taiwan’s Office of the President) Translated by Shen Ke. Edited by Taejun Kang and Mat Pennington. Asia Fact Check Lab (AFCL) is a new branch of RFA established to counter disinformation in today’s complex media environment. Our journalists publish both daily and special reports that aim to sharpen and deepen our readers’ understanding of public issues.

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Did US falsify medal tally in the 2023 World Aquatics Championships?

Editor06 mins

A screenshot taken from a broadcast of the 2023 World Aquatics Championships has been repeatedly shared in Chinese-language social media posts that claim it shows U.S. media had falsified the country’s final rank in the international championships. But the claim is false. The screenshot only shows partial results for the swimming match – one of the competition’s six disciplines, not the final ones for all events, where China ended with the most gold medals. A tweet posted by a user @ChanJoe18 on July 29 reads: “Rigging the standings, falsifying the rankings: U.S. ranks first with 3 gold medals, China only ranks third with 20 gold medals.”  The claim was accompanied by a screenshot of a medal table of the 2023 World Aquatics Championships, which shows the U.S. ranked first, Australia second and China third by total medals.  The same screenshot alongside similar claims has also been shared in Chinese-language social media posts as well as state media reports in China and Russia.  The international championships were held in Fukuoka, Japan, between July 14 and 30, 2023, with a total of 75 medals awarded across six disciplines: swimming, artistic swimming, open water swimming, diving, high diving, and water polo.   Although it’s a subject of debate whether nations should be ranked by total medals won, rather than gold medals won, there was no factual error in the screenshot, which was misrepresented in these social posts. So the claim is false. A widely circulated post on Chinese social media claimed that U.S. media falsified the results of the 2023 World Aquatics Championships, with Chinese and Russian official media soon claiming the U.S. was “fooling itself.” (Screenshots taken from Twitter and Weibo) Origin of screenshot Through keyword searches, AFCL found the identical screenshot published on July 28 in a tweet by the founder of swimming news outlet SwimSwam, Braden Keith. A logo and text included in the screenshot show that it was taken from a broadcast of the competition on the NBC streaming platform Peacock. NBC is the oldest of the three major traditional American television networks and covers major sporting events.  “Today, NBC and USA Swimming officially waived (sic) the white flag at the end of finals by changing their medals table graphic to a total medals sort,” said Keith, pointing out the broadcaster’s move to rank nations by total medals won rather than by gold medals won. Some netizens joined him in mocking how the medals tally was presented. According to the medals table in the screenshot, the U.S. leads the tally with a total of 25 medals, despite earning fewer gold medals than Australia and China.  Braden Keith, editor-in-chief of a swimming news outlet SwimSwam, posted the tweet which contained the screenshot later spread by Chinese netizens. (Screenshot taken from Twitter) Not final results AFCL found that the screenshot only displayed results from the first six days of the nine-day swimming match at the championships, and is clearly marked as such. The medal counts depicted in the screenshot correspond to the official tally between July 22 and July 27.   The championships concluded on July 30 with China leading the medal tally in all disciplines with 20 gold medals followed by Australia and the U.S. in second and third place, respectively.  Translated by Shen Ke. Edited by Taejun Kang and Mat Pennington.  Asia Fact Check Lab (AFCL) is a new branch of RFA established to counter disinformation in today’s complex media environment. Our journalists publish both daily and special reports that aim to sharpen and deepen our readers’ understanding of public issues.

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Investigative Journalism Reportika © March 2022 by Ij-Reportika is licensed under CC BY 4.0