China to account for more than half renewable capacity rise, report says

The speedy deployment of renewable power worldwide is set to lead the largest annual increase in new renewable capacity ever, a report released on Thursday said. Renewable power capacity is expected to increase by a third this year and will continue to rise next year, primarily due to a stronger push by governments amid higher fossil fuel prices and energy security concerns, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its latest Renewable Energy Market update. The Paris-based group said there would be a significant surge in the global addition of renewable capacity, with a record-breaking increase of 107 gigawatts (GW) expected in 2023, resulting in total renewable capacity of over 440 GW worldwide. That is 24% more than projected six months earlier and double what the world added in 2019. Furthermore, projections indicate that total global renewable electricity capacity will reach 4,500 GW, equivalent to the combined power output of China and the United States, by the following year. China is expected to account for nearly 55% of global additions of renewable power capacity in both 2023 and 2024, consolidating “its position as the undisputed leader in global deployment,” the IEA said. In 2022, China accounted for less than half of all new renewable power capacity worldwide.  By 2024, the report projected that China will deliver almost 70% of all new offshore wind projects globally, as well as over 60% of onshore wind and 50% of solar photovoltaic (PV) projects.  An infographic showing China’s renewable capacity increase between 2017 and 2024. Credit: IEA. According to the IEA, the “dynamic expansion” is also occurring elsewhere in the world’s major markets.  In Europe, many countries boosted their renewables to reduce their reliance on Russian natural gas after the invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing energy crisis.  In the United States, the wind and solar PV markets experienced a decline last year due to trade restrictions and limitations in the supply chain. However, these markets are anticipated to rebound significantly, with an estimated growth of approximately 40% expected in 2023. In India, renewable capacity expansion in both 2023 and 2024 is attributed to the accelerated deployment of onshore wind, hydropower, and distributed solar PV systems.  “Solar and wind are leading the rapid expansion of the new global energy economy,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said. “This year, the world is set to add a record-breaking amount of renewables to electricity systems … The global energy crisis has shown renewables are critical for making energy supplies cleaner, more secure, and affordable – and governments are responding with efforts to deploy them faster.” Birol said more robust growth faces challenges, including the “need to upgrade and expand power grids to ensure we can take full advantage of solar and wind’s huge potential.” According to the report, solar PV additions will account for two-thirds of this year’s increase in renewable power capacity and are expected to keep growing in 2024, with high electricity prices driving faster growth of rooftop panels. Meanwhile, wind power additions are forecast to grow by almost 70% year-on-year in 2023 after a slow couple of years. The faster growth is mainly due to the end of COVID-19 restrictions in China and recovering supply chain issues worldwide. The IEA said that compared to solar PV, wind turbine supply chains are still not growing fast enough to match increasing demand over the medium term due to rising commodity prices and continued supply chain challenges, resulting in some reduction in profit for manufacturers. Edited by Mike Firn.

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North Korea vows to try again after failed satellite launch

On the heels of a failed spy satellite launch on Wednesday, North Korea vowed that a second launch would come soon, state media reported. Taking off from the Sohae Satellite Launching ground at 6:27 a.m., the Malligyong-1 satellite mounted on the new-type Chollima-1 rocket lost thrust over the Yellow Sea, the state-run Korean Central News Agency, or KCNA reported. The second stage of the rocket engine did not ignite properly, the report said, citing remarks made by a spokesperson from the National Aerospace Development Administration. “Scientists, technicians and experts concerned [will] start discovering concrete causes,” KCNA said. After determining them, the scientists will “take urgent scientific and technological measures to overcome them and conduct the second launch as soon as possible through various part tests.” Had the launch been successful it would have been the first time North Korea managed to place a reconnaissance satellite in its proper orbit. In seven attempts, only two satellites have reached orbit but both failed shortly after, U.S.-based satellite imagery expert Jacob Bogle told RFA’s Korean Service. “It’s a cliché to say that ‘space is hard’, but that’s because it is. Failures commonly happen in both government-led space programs like the ESA as well as in privately-funded programs such as SpaceX,” said Bogle.  South Korean military personnel recover what is believed to be a part of the rocket that North Korea said crashed into the sea off the west coast of the Korean peninsula, Wednesday, May 31, 2023. Credit: South Korea Defense Ministry/Handout via Reuters Bogle said it was very likely that North Korea would try again. “The launch window was from May 31 to June 11, and they launched on the very first day of that window. We don’t know what the internal decision-making process was but this could have been a rushed launch,” he said. “North Korea is the only country in the region without a reliable spacefaring capability, and Kim Jong Un has placed a lot of importance on acquiring it. … North Korea will likely try another satellite launch in the near-term.” North Korea’s account of the failed launch is likely true, the Rand Corporation’s Bruce Bennett told RFA. “This is possible, but other failures could also have happened. Kim has already promised to try again, so I think we can expect it,” said Bennett.   The goal of the launch was to put the spy satellite in a polar orbit, optimal for spy satellites, he said.   “A polar satellite travels roughly over the North Pole and the South pole as it circles the Earth. It flies at a much lower altitude, usually 200 to 1,000 km,” said Bennett.  A polar orbit is usually used for reconnaissance … [and] lets them see areas all over the Earth as the Earth turns, and the altitude is low enough for relatively good pictures on a periodic basis (weekly) for any given location.” Renewed condemnation Despite its failure, members of the international community reminded North Korea that the launch, even despite its failure, violated U.N. resolutions meant to limit Pyongyang’s missile and nuclear capabilities. “The EU strongly condemns the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) launch using ballistic military technology that occurred on 31 May,” Nabila Massrali, the regional bloc’s Spokesperson for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy said in a statement. “The EU calls on the DPRK to cease all actions that raise tensions and instead choose the path of dialogue with the main parties.” The International Maritime Organization’s Maritime Safety Commission adopted a resolution that condemned North Korea for conducting the launch without proper notification and for not adhering to UN resolutions, and called for North Korea to “cease unlawful and unannounced ballistic missile launches across international shipping lanes.” Lawmakers Anne-Marie Trevelyan of the U.K. and Young Kim of the U.S. also wrote tweets condemning the launch.   “Kim Jong Un’s consistent & rogue aggression must be taken seriously by the United States & our Indo-Pacific allies,” Rep. Kim (R-Calif.) said. “We must stand firm in holding him accountable & working toward complete, verifiable, & irreversible denuclearization of North Korea.” Reported by Lee Sangmin and Kim Soyoung for RFA Korean. 

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