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Days after ceasefire, northern Myanmar sees more battles

Editor05 mins

Fighting erupted between the junta and allied ethnic groups in northern Myanmar just days after the two sides agreed a ceasefire, according to a statement released Wednesday by the Three Brotherhood Alliance. The alliance accused junta soldiers remaining in Shan state’s Kokang of firing grenades, the statement said. It added that junta troops launched the weapons from 30 meters (98 feet) away while allied Kokang resistance fighters were stationed near Kachin mountain.  Despite the ceasefire reached during a third round of China-brokered peace talks in Kunming on Thursday night, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army retaliated and fighting began again around 4 p.m. on Tuesday.  The alliance claimed junta troops fired back three times with heavy weapons before retreating. Despite the ceasefire, it’s possible that remaining junta troops separated from the rest of the army would open fire and attack, a military analyst who wished to remain anonymous for security reasons told Radio Free Asia on Wednesday. “The areas of Laukkai, Konkyan, and Yan Long Keng are very rough and it’s difficult to communicate there. It’s probably the remnants of the junta army that went into the forest during the [previous] battles,” he said.  “I am not sure whether they know about the ceasefire after the [Kunming] talks.” The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, one of the groups making up the Three Brotherhood Alliance, captured Laukkai city in Kokang’s Self-Administered Zone when more than 1,000 junta troops surrendered on Jan. 4  Although the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army sent the surrendering troops back to Lashio, some who were separated from the main group may have initiated the attack, military observers said. Both the alliance and regime announced their public agreement to the ceasefire on Friday. According to the agreement, all parties involved would immediately cease fighting in their current locations. Starting Friday, the Three Brotherhood Alliance agreed to refrain from attacks on cities and junta camps. Regime forces similarly committed to halting airstrikes and other heavy weapons attacks. However, tensions still run high. When the Kachin Independence Army launched an attack on a Kutkai military base Sunday night, the junta Defense Service released a statement claiming the Three Brotherhood Alliance’s Ta’ang National Liberation Army was involved.  Despite the ceasefire, the alliance is still preparing for future battles, claiming in a statement released Sunday that the regime is launching an offensive that began on Saturday. The statement added the junta is also responsible for airstrikes and heavy weapons attacks in Mongmit, Kutkai, and Kyaukme townships after the ceasefire agreement. RFA called Shan state junta spokesperson Khun Thein Maung and national junta spokesperson Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun for more information on these accusations, but calls went unanswered Wednesday. According to data compiled by RFA, in the more than two months since Operation 1027 launched on Oct. 27 to Friday’s ceasefire, the alliance captured 15 cities in northern Shan state. Translated by RFA Burmese. Edited by Mike Firn.

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What role did China play in a rebel group’s victory in northern Myanmar?

Editor016 mins

When the Three Brotherhood Alliance of rebel groups in Myanmar started a campaign against junta forces in the northern part of the country they chose a slogan designed to win support from a fourth potential ally: China. “Wipe out the scammers, rescue our compatriots,” the group declared in the message.  China, which shares a border with Kokang, a region in Shan state in northern Myanmar, had expressed increasing frustration with organized crime rings that had been allowed to operate in the area by junta-aligned forces. An estimated 120,000 people are being held in Myanmar against their will. Chinese nationals have both been trafficked by these groups and fleeced by them.  The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army – which along with the Ta’ang National Liberation Army and the Arakan Army make up the Alliance – had tried and failed twice before to retake the region. This time, however, Kokang’s capital of Laukkai fell into rebel hands on Jan. 4.  Since then, China has played a clear role in mediating a truce between the two sides. But the initial success of the rebel campaign has led analysts to speculate that it had, in fact, received Chinese backing.  China’s leaders may have sought to kill “two birds with one stone,” according to Deng Yuwen, a political commentator and former journalist  – strengthening China’s position in the region while removing the destabilizing threat presented by the scam compounds. “The Chinese government can use the scamming operations as a way to secretly support local forces … and control the area that way,” Deng said.  “They solve the scamming problem and cultivate bold agents of the Chinese state at the same time,” he said, meaning China believes the new leaders of Kokang will better reflect its interests.  Chinese police arrest Chinese nationals allegedly involved in online scamming operations in Myanmar, Dec. 10, 2023. (Kokang officials) A ‘king’ and a coup Kokang has long been in China’s orbit, and many of its residents are ethnically Chinese. In the mid-20th century, Kokang served as a base for Myanmar communists.  With the collapse of the Communist Party of Burma in 1989, local warlord Peng Jiasheng – whose nickname was “the king of Kokang” – switched his allegiance to the junta. The military granted the region autonomy and allowed Peng to keep his military presence in the area, though China remained an important patron.  In 2009, Peng was ousted in a coup led by his second-in-command, Bai Suocheng, who consolidated his family’s control over the state. Bai allowed government troops to be stationed in Kokang for the first time while residents were granted Myanmar nationality.  Bai offered sanctuary to criminal groups in return for huge payouts that also benefited the junta. Eventually, massive, organized scam operations began to thrive in Kokang. China pushes back Last year, the Chinese government appeared fed up. In August, it took part in a joint operation with Myanmar and Thailand targeting the scam centers. Over the intervening months, more than 40,000 Chinese nationals were arrested in Shan state for involvement with online scams, according to data collected by RFA.  A number of powerful Kokang business people were arrested at a trade fair in China in October, and in November, Beijing issued arrest warrants for a well-connected Kokang politician and three family members on allegations of masterminding an online scam ring.  China’s Ministry of Public Security issued arrest warrants for 10 people, including the former chairman of the Kokang self-administered region, Bai Suocheng [top row, first left], his son Bai Yingcang [top row, second left] and his daughter Bai Yinglan [top row, third left]. (The Kokang) On Dec. 10, China’s Ministry of Public Security put out another wanted list, naming 10 individuals in connection with the scams, including Bai Suocheng, his grown children and a few junta officials. The move not only showed Beijing’s growing impatience with Myanmar’s handling of the scam rings, but signaled that China favored leaders in Kokang more closely aligned with its national interests. The prince’s plans After he had been dethroned as the king of Kokang, Peng Jiasheng resurfaced as the leader of the MNDAA, fighting Myanmar forces on occasion without significant success. When he died in 2022, his son, Peng Denren, took over and immediately made plans to reclaim control of his father’s lost territory. The Alliance launched “Operation 1027” – so-called for the on Oct. 27, 2023, date – offensive against Myanmar military strongholds in northern Myanmar. Even though the Alliance remained outnumbered by government troops, the rebel forces scored several significant victories early on. Its soldiers have since seized more than 300 military bases, around a dozen towns, and won control of several key trade routes with the neighboring Chinese province of Yunnan. Members of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army walk past a Myanmar military base after seizing it during clashes near Laukkaing township in Myanmar’s northern Shan state, Oct. 28, 2023. (Kokang Information Network/AFP) Suspicion over ‘foreign’ experts Myanmar’s junta chief in November claimed that the ethnic-minority armed groups were getting outside assistance, according to a report by Agence France-Presse.  He said the rebels had been using “drones with advanced technology” to attack junta positions and were aided by “foreign drone experts,” although he didn’t specify which country they came from. Li Jiawen, a spokesman for the MNDAA, denied the offensive was aided by the Chinese. “The situation we have today is the result of nearly 70 years of tyranny by the junta,” Li said. Even China’s tacit approval of the operation is important, Yun Sun, the director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank, said in an interview with RFA. “The biggest support that China has lended to this organization is to not stop them,” she said.  Rebel forces were able to retreat over the border to avoid junta artillery barrages. China allowed the flow of money and goods in Shan state that helped to sustain the rebels to continue, Sun said.  And there was likely a psychological…

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Chinese warships leave Cambodia’s Ream naval base

Editor06 mins

Two Chinese warships leading a training program for the Cambodian Navy since early December have left the Ream naval base, satellite imagery shows. Images captured on Jan. 15 and provided by the U.S. earth imaging company Planet Labs show an empty berth at the new pier, where the two People’s Liberation Army (PLA) corvettes were docked for several weeks. The ships were still seen as of Jan. 13, 2024. The new pier at Ream Naval Base on Jan. 13, 2024 (left) with two vessels and on Jan. 15 without any vessel. (RFA via Planet Labs) Radio Free Asia reported on Dec. 5, 2023 about the arrival of the PLA vessels – the first foreign warships to gain access to the new China-funded facility with a deep-draft pier that can accommodate aircraft carriers. A U.S. State Department spokesperson said at that time that Washington had “serious concerns” about China’s plans for exclusive control over portions of Ream Naval Base, and was watching closely. The Chinese ships provided on-ship and in-port training to Cambodian navy staff, according to the Ream naval base’s social media. They may have also taken part in confidence-building activities with the local navy and population, according to Carl Schuster, a retired U.S. Navy captain and former director of operations at the U.S. Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center. “All port visits have a political element,” Schuster told RFA, “Allowing ship tours to visitors from the town, working with local naval forces and meeting with local officials often are more important than the training activities.” People-to People Exchange Year The ships’ departure took place as Cambodia and China officially launched a new campaign to boost bilateral ties and tourism called “The 2024 Cambodia-China People-to-People Exchange Year.” Chinese and Cambodian media reported that a launching ceremony was held last Saturday in Siem Reap. Former Defense Minister Tea Banh, now a member of the Supreme Privy Council to King Sihamoni, and Li Shulei, a member of the Political Bureau of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee, presided over the event. Tea Banh said that the campaign “will inject fresh momentum into building a high-quality, high-level and high-standard Cambodia-China community with a shared future in the new era,” according to Xinhua news agency. Cambodian dancers at the launch ceremony of the 2024 Cambodia-China People-to-People Exchange Year on Jan. 13, 2024. (Tea Banh’s Facebook) Cambodia received 2.36 million Chinese tourists in 2019, accounting for 35.7% of total international tourist arrivals. China and Cambodia have seen a rapid development of their relationship, with Beijing providing Phnom Penh with much needed financial assistance. Siem Reap is where a new Chinese-financed airport began operations in October. The airport has a capacity of 7 million passengers a year and serves as a gateway to Cambodia’s most important tourist destination – the Angkor Temple complex. The Siem Reap-Angkor International Airport was funded by a Chinese company under Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative development plan.  Another big airport near the capital Phnom Penh is also being financed and developed by China. More than 40% of Cambodia’s US$10 billion in foreign debt is owed to China, according to the Cambodian Ministry of Economy and Finance. For its part, Phnom Penh has become one of Beijing’s vocal supporters. After the weekend’s elections in Taiwan, Cambodia immediately “reaffirmed its strong support for the One-China policy.” “In light of the recent developments in Taiwan, the Ministry reiterates Cambodia’s resolute adherence to the One China policy, recognising the People’s Republic of China as the sole legitimate authority representing the entirety of China,” Foreign ministry’s spokesman An Sokhoeun was quoted as saying by local media. Edited by Mike Firn and Taejun Kang.

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Buddha hair relic raises questions about authenticity

Editor05 mins

A Vietnamese pagoda has quietly returned a supposed Buddhist relic – eight hairs said to be from Sidartha Gautma, the founder of Buddhism – to Myanmar after questions arose over its authenticity. The relic was on display at the Ba Vang Pagoda in northern Vietnam from Dec. 23-27, receiving huge press in the country at the time of its arrival. The pagoda made a big deal about receiving the relic with a large ceremony to receive what it was calling one of Myanmar’s “national treasures.” But when RFA Vietnamese asked RFA Burmese to verify the story with religious experts in Myanmar, they said there was little if any archaeological or historical evidence to authenticate the relic. If it were widely believed to be legitimate, the relic would be far more well-known in Myanmar, a country that is 87% Buddhist.  After doubts about the relic appeared on social media, the pagoda returned it to its owners. Many objects believed to be sacred relics have dubious origins, a Buddhist monk who is a member of Myanmar’s highest State Buddhist Sangha Council, told RFA Burmese on condition of anonymity for security reasons due to commenting on sensitive religious issues.  “Any relics that we have today are due to [people] over-believing in something unreasonable,” he said. “People should use their own reasoning [to determine] whether [something like this] could be possible or not.”  RFA attempted to discuss the matter with the Myanmar military junta’s Religious Affairs Department, but both spokesmen declined to comment or were unavailable. A gift from the enlightened According to legend, the eight hairs were given to two Burmese merchants by the Buddha himself, who lived in the sixth and fifth centuries B.C. Ba Vang Pagoda and its abbot, the Most Venerable Thich Truc Thai Minh, said they had borrowed the relic for display from Parami Monastery and Parami International Buddha Relics Museum in Myanmar.  If genuine, it would mean that the relic was passed down through the generations from the two merchants until the museum became its steward.  RFA confirmed that both the monastery and the museum exist. They are both located in Yangon, but could not reach the spokesperson or a responsible representative of either. Although the story about the relic went viral on social and mainstream media in Vietnam, Myanmar’s media has had no coverage regarding the lending of its “national treasure” to Vietnam for exhibition, as had been reported in Vietnam. The reckoning The Giác Ngộ online newspaper under the Vietnam Buddhist Sangha, or VBS, reported that at its meeting on Jan. 4, 2023, the standing board of VBS’ Northern Executive Council discussed disciplinary action against the abbot Minh for being involved in the display of the Buddha hair relic. According to the Most Venerable Thich Duc Thien, the vice-chairman and secretary-general of the Executive Council, the Minh admitted fault in front of monks, nuns and Buddhist followers for the display that provoked public controversy and damaged the reputation of the sangha. The VBS accepted his penance, asking him and the pagoda not to organize any international exchanges at the pagoda over the next year, Thien told RFA. Translated by RFA Burmese and Vietnamese. Edited by Eugene Whong and Malcolm Foster.

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Myanmar’s junta threatens to raze villages to bolster army numbers

Editor05 mins

Myanmar’s military junta is recruiting villagers across more than 50 townships in the country’s central areas, locals told Radio Free Asia on Monday. Up to 50 residents per village are required to serve in the regime’s militia in Bago region chosen through a raffle system, they added.  The junta is recruiting civilians between the ages of 18 and 60 heavily from western and eastern Bago. Twenty villages in eastern Bago and 28 villages in western Bago have already been targeted, residents said. Village administration appointed by the regime has required eligible members of each household to enter a raffle system, where those selected must attend a month-long military training course.  If villagers don’t cooperate, soldiers have threatened to burn down their villages, said a resident in western Bago region who wished to remain anonymous for security reasons. To be excused from service, they must pay between 800,000 kyat [US$380] and one million kyat [$476]. “The [junta] ordered one person per household to enlist. If not, the village will be burned down. When [soldiers] say something like that, people are afraid because they are villagers. They cannot afford to give people from every single house,” he said. “People did not want their village to be burnt, so they agreed with the raffle system. Also, a soldier changed the requirement later to only 10 people from every single village who had to serve for the militia. But people who got selected by the raffle system to serve also do not want to join the militia.” To be exempt from the raffle, residents are required to pay 100,000 kyat [$47] per household, they said.  The military junta began asking for 50 people per village in eastern Bago starting from Friday, said a man from Hpa Yar Gyi village.  “The [junta] is asking for between 50 and 60 people from our area. Let’s say there are 10 people in this village’s section – if two people are selected to join, they must go when the junta calls, whether they are at work or not,” he told RFA. “They have to join militia training. The junta just says joining training, but they have to go to the frontline after.” The military has advertised that those who join the militia will be paid 120,000 kyat [$ 57] and provided a bag of rice per month, residents said.  The junta started to implement the scheme after a meeting between military chiefs and pro-junta political parties on Jan 6. Bago’s junta spokesperson Tin Oo told RFA Thursday that this method allows locals to protect their communities, adding that participating would help increase stability and public security.  “No one wants terrorism,” he said. “[Serving in the militia] allows them to defend their homes and that depends on them preventing People’s Defense Force terrorists from getting into their villages.” Translated by RFA Burmese. Edited by Mike Firn.

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Cambodians need consumer rights NGOs in an era of scams and scandals

Editor016 mins

Long gone is the heyday of Cambodia’s civil society, which a decade ago was the most vibrant and rumbustious in Southeast Asia.  The authoritarian Cambodian People’s Party (CPP), in power since 1979 and now firmly in control of a one-party state, saw it as a threat and has systematically crushed the public sphere since 2013. Some NGOs still exist and are performing brave work, but they have been greatly defanged and are petrified of lawsuits or dissolution by the ruling party.  Despite decades of tens of millions of dollars being pumped into Cambodia’s NGO sector, mainly from foreign governments, there has never been an association created that specifically represents the interests of consumers. There is apparently an NGO registered as the Cambodian Consumer Association, but it has no website and good luck trying to find out anything about its activity.  Leader of Cambodian People’s Party Hun Sen and his son Prime Minister Hun Manet release pigeons during a ceremony to mark the 45th anniversary of the fall of the Khmer Rouge regime in Phnom Penh on Jan. 7, 2024. (Tang Chhin Sothy/AFP) Consumers International, a global organization for consumer groups, has no affiliate in Cambodia, according to its website. “Without consumer protection associations,” a report on Cambodia stated, “there will be an imbalance of bargaining power between consumers, and producers and sellers of products and services. As a result, consumers’ rights are not fully protected.”  Indeed, on the one hand, consumption is increasing and habits are changing. Household final consumption expenditure rose to $18.1 billion in 2021, up from around $10 billion in 2011 and just $3.3 billion in 2001, according to World Bank figures. Cambodia’s e-commerce sector, difficult to regulate, is expected to surge in value to $1.78 billion in 2025, more than double what it was worth in 2020.  ‘Scam-state’ Yet, there remain major concerns about the quality of products being sold, especially by traders on Facebook, and other consumer protection issues. Certainly not helping the situation, Cambodia has gotten a damaging reputation as a country of scammers—a “scam-state”, if you like. More and more Cambodians are also becoming consumers of government services, including the expanding healthcare sector, and contributors to the state through growing taxation collection.  On the other hand, business groups, foreign corporations and the country’s powerful tycoons, many of whom have married into the political aristocracy, are increasingly calling the shots. A Cambodian protest against a controversial law regulating non-governmental organizations in Phnom Penh, July 24, 2015. (Tang Chhin Sothy/AFP) Hun Manet, who took over as prime minister from his long-serving father in August, has pitched himself as a friend to the capitalist class. His young government spent months preparing for its first Government-Private Sector Forum in November, at which Hun Manet stressed: “Today’s forum is also a testament to the close cooperation and culture of dialogue between the government and the private sector to jointly address the problems and concerns of investors in order to promote private sector development in Cambodia”.  The claim made by the CPP throughout the decades is that economic freedom is more important than political freedom. Yet rather unequal freedom when one side (the businesses and producers) has vast institutional power and the ear of the premier, yet there are no comparable groups defending the interests of consumers.  Cambodia only adopted a Law on Consumer Protection in November 2019, and the commerce ministry created a National Programme on Consumer Protection last year. A lengthy report published in late 2021 by the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, titled Law in the Digital Age: Protection of Consumer Rights, noted that the “actual implementation of [the Law on Consumer Protection] in promoting and protecting consumer rights is questionable.”  Southeast Asian examples Chapter Seven of this report, titled “Legal and Practical Considerations for Establishing a Consumer Association in Cambodia,”  is an interesting read on this topic. The report recommended that “civil society and nongovernmental institutions need to play an outstanding role as check and balance agents in overseeing consumer rights promotion and protection in both traditional and electronic commerce. Civil society and NGOs shall urge, support, and join the establishment of consumer associations in different sectors to ensure that consumer rights to safety, rights to information, rights to choose, rights to be heard of concerns, and rights to redress are guaranteed.” Cambodian security officers detain protesters in prisoner uniforms as they demonstrate against a controversial law regulating non-governmental organizations outside the National Assembly building in Phnom Penh, July 26, 2015. (Tang Chhin Sothy/AFP) There are good examples across Southeast Asia. One is the Consumers Association of Singapore, a non-profit, non-governmental organization. It runs comparison websites that provide consumers with information on prices charged by companies for everyday necessities and energy. It operates an Accredited Businesses List so that consumers can check if companies are reputable. Importantly, consumers can also submit complaints on its websites which are then investigated.  Elsewhere in Southeast Asia, there is also the Federation of Malaysian Consumers Associations, the Myanmar Consumers’ Union, a Foundation for Consumers in Thailand and a Coalition for Consumer Protection and Welfare in the Philippines.  An overarching “Consumers Association of Cambodia” would be a welcome addition to the public sphere and, with the right funding, including from foreign donors, could engage in the same roles as the Singaporean counterpart. Yet, more targeted associations would also be needed.  Using public money One area could be in tax. In 2013, domestic tax revenue was just $900 million, or around $60 per capita. By 2022, it had spiked to $3.45 billion, or $206 per capita. As such, most Cambodians have become taxpayers as well as consumers of government services in recent years. The National Social Security Fund, a national healthcare insurance, has expanded rapidly in recent years and  Hun Manet vows to expand it further. State expenditure has increased from $409 million (13 percent of GDP) in 2013 to $7.9 billion (27 percent of GDP) in 2022. Yet there remains no “Taxpayers Alliance of Cambodia”. Such an association would lobby the government to…

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Time is not on Myanmar junta’s side, almost 3 years after coup

Editor013 mins

In his televised New Year’s address to the country, Myanmar’s junta leader Min Aung Hlaing vowed to prioritize economic growth in 2024, apportioning all the blame for the country’s sharp economic contraction on the opposition his coup ousted almost three years ago.   Min Aung Hlaing made no mention of the military’s setbacks since the Three Brotherhood Alliance of ethnic armies in northern Myanmar launched their offensive on October 27, 2023. And while the losses, which include over 30 towns and the surrender of over 3,000 troops are real, the continued economic crisis remains the junta’s single largest vulnerability. Smoke rises from a burning Myanmar military compound amid clashes with armed group Ta’ang National Liberation Army in northern Shan State, Dec. 13, 2023. (AFP Photo) The economy has shrunk by 10-12 percent since the Feb. 1,  2021 coup that deposed the National League For Democracy-led government.  In a recent report, the World Bank predicted the country would only see 1% growth in 2024, given the “broad-based slowdown across productive sectors including agriculture, manufacturing, and trade.”  Over half the population is living beneath the poverty line, while the World Bank found that 40% of surveyed families saw a decline in income in 2023 compared to 2022. The kyat currency has lost half of its value since the coup and it now appears that the State Administrative Council (SAC), as the junta is formally known, has given up any hope of controlling it.  Forex woes In early December 2023, the Central Bank of Myanmar announced that it would no longer fix the exchange rate, allowing the currency to trade at market prices.  This was a tacit acknowledgement that the gap between the official rate of 2,100 kyat per U.S. dollar  and black market rate of 3,500 kyat per greenback was too large to ignore, and that the regime no longer had foreign exchange reserves to prop up the declining kyat.  The shortage of dollars also portends a further energy crisis. Electric black- and brown-outs have been common throughout the country, even in Naypyidaw. And shortages of gasoline and diesel increased in late-2023.  Fighters of Ta’ang National Liberation Army search a building after running over a compound belonging to Myanmar junta military in Shan State, Dec. 12, 2023. (AFP Photo) The SAC had subsidized energy imports by making dollars available to politically-connected energy importers at below market rates in order to ensure a steady supply of fuel. The junta no longer can afford that.  In late December, there were reports of tankers refusing to unload in Yangon’s Thaliwa port until they were paid, indicating a dire shortage of dollars. The regime has been encouraging border trade with China and Thailand, which is conducted in Chinese yuan or Thai baht. But the loss of key border areas is hampering that.  While SAC forces still control the border city of Muse, which handles almost 90% of border trade with China, the Three Brotherhood Alliance now controls the Mile 105 Trade Zone as well as a host of smaller border crossings, such as Chin Shwe Haw. Muse and Lashio are the only towns in northern Shan State that are still under junta control. Ethnic armies on the march The Three Brotherhood Alliance – Arakan Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and Ta’ang National Liberation Army – now controls almost all towns along highways 3 and 34, to the border.  Ta’ang National Liberation Army forces captured a military camp as far west as Nawnghkio, which is only 15 miles from Pyin Oo Lwin, home of the Defense Services Academy, though the Air Force has intensified airstrikes to retake the town.  Among advances by other ethnic armies, Karenni forces now control much of the state including the trade routes to Mae Hong Son in Thailand. The Karen National Union has been consolidating its position along the Thai border.  Fuel prices, delays at the border and increased transportation costs resulted in some $500 million in lost border trade in the two months following the launch of Operation 1027 in northern Shan State. Border trade accounts for 40% of exports and 21% of imports.  Myanmar Now, citing Commerce Ministry figures, found that exports to Thailand and China in the last 9 months of 2023 fell by $178 and $157 million, respectively. Residents of an improvised neighborhood gather to receive rice distributed by the World Food on the outskirts of Yangon, May 21, 2021. Over half the population in Myanmar live beneath the poverty line. (AFP Photo) Sector after sector have been hit hard.  In late November, the SAC stopped supplying fuel to industrial estates, calling on factory owners to negotiate their own energy purchases. In the key garment sector, 271 of 817 factories (33%) have shut down since the coup – due to shortages of foreign exchange to pay for raw materials, high energy prices, and the loss contracts and foreign investor unease with the human rights situation. Even Chinese-owned firms are closing. For those still employed, wages are stagnant and being eaten up by inflation, which remains high at 29%. Prices of staples, including rice, eggs, and cooking oil, have soared.  The junta refused to increase the minimum wage for workers, instead offering a 1,000-kyat (US$0.20) daily allowance. The current minimum wage was set in 2018. Myanmar Kyat notes are seen in a donation coffer at a Buddhist pagoda in Yangon, April 17, 2017. (Roberto Schmidt/AFP) The agriculture sector has been impacted by changing weather patterns and shortages of imported fertilizers and pesticides. While the cost of production has soared for farmers, in mid-September 2023, the junta imposed price ceilings on wholesale rice trade to stabilize prices for urban consumers. U.S.-imposed sanctions on the Myanma Investment and Commercial Bank and Myanmar Foreign Trade Bank, which were responsible for most of the U.S. dollar transactions, have crippled foreign trade. Singapore’s United Overseas Bank has been quietly closing Myanmar-linked accounts, further hampering their international transactions. In December 2023, three Myanmar nationals, including Kyaw Min Oo, the CEO of Sky Aviator, were…

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Counting underway in Taiwan’s pivotal presidential election

Editor010 mins

Voting has ended and counting is underway in Taiwan’s presidential election, a ballot that will shape its future relationship with China and stance on independence and stability. Polls opened at 8:00 a.m. at nearly 18,000 locations, from the island’s south to its capital Taipei and closed at 4 p.m with votes immediately being counted and reported to the election authorities soon after. The result for Saturday’s election should be clear by late evening when the losers concede and the winner gives a victory speech. At stake is the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait between the Chinese mainland and the self-governed island, claimed by Beijing as its own, but equally important are bread-and-butter issues. Key candidates in the presidential race are: Vice President Lai Ching-te of the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Hou Yu-ih of the Beijing-favored Kuomintang (KMT) and Ko Wen-je of Taiwan’s People’s Party (TPP). Former physician and mayor of Tainan, Lai, known for his support of Taiwan independence, aims to continue President Tsai’s policies of maintaining Taiwan’s de facto independence amidst heightened tensions with Beijing. Facing challenges like slow wage growth and high housing costs, Lai’s DPP, once an opposition to the KMT’s rule, now faces criticisms of being the establishment. “Today is a glorious day, great weather to vote. I encourage everyone to go vote, demonstrate the vigor of Taiwanese democracy,” said Lai after casting his vote in his hometown of Tainan. “Let Taiwan continue to move forward.” Hou from the KMT, a former police officer and mayor of New Taipei City, represents a “Taiwanese flavor” in politics, which his party believes could help attract a broader voter base beyond its traditional supporters; he advocates for dialogue with Beijing under the “1992 consensus” to reduce cross-strait tensions. However, the viability of this consensus is in question since Chinese President Xi Jinping’s 2019 interpretation aligned it with a stringent “one China principle,” echoing the increasingly restrictive model seen in Hong Kong. “I am very happy to see people voluntarily come out to vote early in the morning. This demonstrates a very important voting behavior of Taiwanese democracy in the electoral process – where democracy is used to select the most ideal president, vice president and legislators,” said Hou after voting in New Taipei City. “More importantly, no matter how chaotic the election process is, everyone must unite after the election.” Ko, a former surgeon turned politician, founded the TPP four years ago, focusing on domestic issues like energy and housing, after a surprising victory in Taipei’s mayoral race as an independent. While the TPP isn’t strong enough to dominate the legislature, Ko aims to position it as a parliamentary power broker, advocating for a coalition with the KMT and offering a “third choice” to voters, with policies aligning more closely with the KMT’s stance on China. Asked by journalists how he felt after casting his ballot in Taipei, Ko said:”Keep a normal mind, finish what one needs to finish every day, and plan for the next stage after each is completed.” An official of a polling station holds up a ballot slip, as vote counting for the presidential elections commences, at a high school in New Taipei City on January 13, 2024. (Sam Yeh / AFP) Just hours before the polls got underway China continued to assert its presence in the region. Taiwan’s defense ministry said eight People’s Liberation Army (PLA) aircraft and six PLA Navy vessels were detected around the island as of 6 a.m. local time, with one aircraft entering Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone. Some voters may be dissuaded from supporting independence-leaning candidates by China’s military threats, but the United States has pledged support for whichever government forms. A White House official said on Wednesday that U.S. President Joe Biden will send an “unofficial” delegation of former officials to Taiwan following the presidential elections. Aside from tensions with China, the Taiwan election is also predominantly determined by domestic concerns. In November 2023, Taiwan’s statistics bureau reported its GDP growth forecast as 1.42%, the lowest since 2008. Taiwan is grappling with soaring housing prices, ranked among the highest globally, while its wage levels were among the lowest compared to other developed economies, according to March figures. The outcome of the elections will also impact the security and economy of neighboring countries like Japan and South Korea. Taro Aso, the former Prime Minister of Japan, recently warned that China’s territorial claims on Taiwan could lead to a dire crisis for Japan, necessitating Tokyo’s intervention in the Taiwan Strait during any conflict to protect its citizens. Additionally, a Bloomberg Economics report released on Tuesday indicated that South Korea’s GDP would face the second-largest drop, after Taiwan, if a war were to break out between China and the democratic island. A woman casts her vote in the presidential election at a polling station in a temple in New Taipei City on Jan. 13, 2024. (Alastair Pike/AFP) Experts who spoke to Radio Free Asia said they believe maintaining the status quo is considered the safest approach regardless of the outcome of the elections.  Despite Beijing’s ongoing threats to use force to reclaim Taiwan, there’s little belief in an immediate invasion by China, they said, citing several factors at play: Taiwan’s determination to maintain its freedom and identity, the relations between Washington and Beijing, and the U.S.’s commitment to protecting Taiwan’s interests. Above all, the economic cost of a conflict could be devastating for the region and the world. For one, Taiwan is the leading global producer of the most advanced semiconductors.  Beyond the presidential and vice presidential elections, there are also 113 legislative seats up for grabs. More than 83% of the total population, or approximately 19.55 million voters, are eligible to cast their ballot. In 2020, DPP President Tsai Ing-wen and her running mate Lai won over 8.17 million votes, or 57.13% of the total, to defeat Han Kuo-yu and Chang San-cheng of the KMT. Additionally, a majority of seats was gained by the DPP in the…

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Experts denounce trips to Xinjiang as ‘genocide tourism’

Editor09 mins

The Chinese government has thrown open the door for tourists to Xinjiang. Or at least those it deems worthy of an invite.  While officials previously let in diplomats, journalists and those considered “friends of China,” they are now presenting the restive far-western region as a tourist destination of sorts in a bid to remove some of the tarnish from China’s image as a human rights violator in the far-western region in the eyes of the international community. Nearly 400 delegations and groups consisting of more than 4,300 people from various countries and international organizations visited the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region in 2023, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said at a press conference on Jan. 5.  Visitors included government officials, diplomats, religious figures, experts, scholars, and journalists as well as ordinary travelers, he said. Unlike travel in the rest of China, however, visits remain by invitation only and visitors are led on government-sponsored tours.  These include trips to mosques and heritage sites “to see how Xinjiang’s traditional culture is protected,” Wang said. “They went to local factories, businesses and farms to learn about Xinjiang’s production and development, and visited ordinary households where they saw the happy life of people of various ethnic groups.” “Seeing is believing,” he said. “People are not blind to the truth. For certain countries, they are comfortable telling lies about genocide and forced labor in Xinjiang…. Xinjiang will keep its door open to the world.”  Foreign envoys visit an exhibition on Xinjiang’s anti-terrorism and de-radicalization work in Urumqi, capital of northwestern China’s Xinjiang region, Aug. 4, 2023. (Zhao Chenjie/Xinhua via Getty Images) The move comes as China gets ready for its fourth Universal Periodic Review, or UPR — a Human Rights Council mechanism that calls for each U.N. member state to undergo a peer review of its human rights records every 4.5 years. The review is scheduled to be held in Geneva, Switzerland, on Jan. 23. Authorities have tightly controlled who enters Xinjiang, where harsh repression of Uyghurs and other Muslims in recent years has amounted to genocide and crimes against humanity, according to the United States, the United Nations, the parliaments of other Western countries and human rights groups.  Authorities in Xinjiang have detained an estimated 1.8 million Uyghurs and other Turkic Muslims, destroyed thousands of mosques and banned the Uyghur language in schools and government offices. China has said that the “re-education camps” have been closed and has denied any policy to erase Uyghur culture. A recent CBS documentary on China’s “rebranding” effort shows surveillance cameras and facial recognition devices monitoring Uyghurs. The name of the ancient town of Kashgar appears in Chinese as “Kashi” on signs and billboards, while the 15th-century Id Kah Mosque — closed to local Muslims since 2016 — has been transformed into a tourist attraction. Through the scripted travel junkets, the Chinese government is spreading a narrative that Uyghurs live happy lives to cover up Beijing’s severe human rights violations in Xinjiang, experts on the region said. Foreign visitors, in turn, have perpetuated the narrative through photos and posts on their social media accounts. Criticism from rights groups The dissemination of propaganda and China’s efforts to enhance the image of Xinjiang have sparked criticism from human rights groups.  Claudia Bennett, a legal and program officer at Human Rights Foundation, said the orchestrated visits conceal the harsh realities of forced family separations, arbitrary detentions of millions in concentration or forced labor camps, and thousands of Uyghurs living in exile and forcibly rendered stateless.  “In a strategic effort to legitimize its colonization of the Uyghur region, the Chinese Communist Party carefully organizes propagandist visits for diplomats, journalists and religious scholars,” she told Radio Free Asia. “These tours are designed to whitewash the CCP’s gross human rights violations.” The U.S.-based Uyghur Human Rights Foundation, or UHRP, called the visits “genocide tourism” in a report issued last Aug. 30, saying that they help China conceal genocide and crimes against humanity occurring in Xinjiang. Dolkun Isa, president of the World Uyghur Congress, took the criticism of the junkets a step further. “Collaborating with China’s propaganda equates to complicity in genocide – a grave crime,” he said. “Humanity will not forget, and the Uyghur nation will not forget. Those involved will be held accountable before history.” Hector Dorbecker, counselor for economic-commercial and financial affairs at the Embassy of Mexico in Beijing, tries to play dutar, a long-necked two-stringed lute, in Jiayi village of Xinhe county in northwestern China’s Xinjiang region, Aug. 2, 2023. (Zhao Chenjie/Xinhua via Getty Images) Travel and excursion propaganda to portray life in Xinjiang as normal is part of “Beijing’s current strategy,” explained Adrian Zenz, an expert on China’s policies in Xinjiang.  “They are showing Uyghurs and Uyghur culture, but not real and free people or culture, but a hollowed out version, a mummified version, like a CCP museum,” said Zenz, director of China studies at the U.S.-based Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation. With the U.N.’s UPR session on the horizon, there can be little doubt that Beijing is touting the visits as a way to counter criticism of its policies in Xinjiang, said Sophie Richardson, former China director at Human Rights Watch. The main problem with the UPR, however, is that there are no penalties for failing to comply or to correct abuses, Richardson added. “Beijing has proven just how easy it is to manipulate the process to keep independent civil society, both inside and outside China, out of the process … and to submit a national report that is breathtakingly dishonest in its claims to upholding human rights.” Translated by RFA Uyghur. Edited by Roseanne Gerin and Abby Seiff.

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Ex-junta official says Shan state ceasefire is ‘not sustainable’

Editor07 mins

Junta officials and a resistance alliance agreed to a temporary ceasefire during talks in China, a person attending the meeting told Radio Free Asia on Friday morning. The Three Brotherhood Alliance and regime representatives reached the decision during peace talks in China’s Kunming on Thursday. The agreement was signed into effect at 10 p.m., the anonymous source said, asking RFA not to disclose his name because he was not authorized to talk to the media.  As a result of the discussion, the allied Arakan Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and Ta’ang National Liberation Army agreed to cease capturing cities and military camps in northern Shan state. Junta officials agreed not to instigate aerial attacks and operate heavy weaponry. China’s border with Myanmar would be re-opened after renegotiation among the three northern alliances, junta officials and China when the area is more stable, the meeting attendee said.  This decision is a result of Chinese pressure and would not be sustainable in the long run, said an ex-military official, who asked RFA to protect his identity for safety reasons.   “This ceasefire is due to pressure from China. China definitely put pressure on both sides, because Yunnan’s industrial products are affected. Because of this, a ceasefire agreement was reached before the resolution was clear,” he said.  “This halt is a breather for the junta council. The Three Brotherhood Alliance also breathed a sigh of relief. And China also breathes a sigh of relief. But I want to say that this is not a long-term, stable situation.” Neither party could deny it was a result of Chinese pressure, said Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a political and military analyst based in China. “There are pros and cons. Some say this could set back the Spring Revolution. I don’t think so. As for the northern group, they still need to rest in order to prepare their armies in peace, and the ceasefire is temporary,” she told RFA.  “It’s a good thing to stop temporarily and politically discuss. They also need to be free to discuss. There may be some consideration for what China wants [from the Three Brotherhood Alliance] when China intervenes.” Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning voiced Beijing’s support for the ceasefire at a regular news conference Friday. “China hopes the relevant parties in Myanmar can conscientiously implement the agreement, exercise maximum restraint toward each other and solve the issues through dialogue and consultations,” she said, adding that the ceasefire was also in China’s interests. “The two sides promised not to undermine the safety of Chinese people living in the border area and Chinese projects and personnel in Myanmar,” she said. A previously reported cease-fire was not honored by either side. The result of this discussion is only for northern Shan state and would not apply to Rakhine state, added the meeting attendee. The Arakan Army’s attacks have also impacted Chinese development projects in Rakhine. On Monday morning, the Arakan Army launched an offensive on a junta naval base in a Chinese special economic zone.  Representatives from the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, Arakan Army, and Ta’ang Liberation Army attended the meeting, said the anonymous source. Lt. Gen. Min Naing and five members from the military council also attended, he added, as well as China’s special representative Deng Xin Jun. Since Operation 1027 launched on October 27, 2023, 15 out of 22 townships in northern Shan state have been occupied by northern resistance groups, according to data compiled by RFA.  Combined troops from Karenni National Defense Force, People’s Liberation Army, Bamar People’s Liberation Army have captured six cities across Shan state, including Chinshwehaw, Kunlong and Hsenwi.  The United Wa State Army has since captured Hopang and Pan Lon cities.  The Ta’ang Liberation Army also seized Namhsan and Manton, in addition to other cities in Ta’ang Self-Administered Zone, including Namhkam, Mongngawt, and Namtu cities. Translated by RFA Burmese. Edited by Mike Firn.

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Investigative Journalism Reportika © March 2022 by Ij-Reportika is licensed under CC BY 4.0