Russian street singer with anti-Putin sign in brief legal scrape in Vietnam

Police in Vietnam denied local media reports that they arrested a Russian citizen for a public protest against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, saying instead that they summoned him for an expired visa. Street performer Alex Kniazev was singing and playing guitar Monday in front of a sign he made that said “STOP WAR, STOP PUTIN, RUSSIA IS NOT PUTIN!!” at Lam Vien Square in the city of Da Lat, in Vietnam’s southern Lam Dong province. After images of  Kniazev, a stage name, went viral on Vietnamese social media on Monday,  multiple Vietnamese media organizations reported on Tuesday that Lam Dong police arrested Kniazev because of the sign. Protests of any kind in one-party Communist Vietnam, an ally of Moscow, are rare and quickly snuffed out. The Da Lat police, however, said they merely invited Kniazev to meet with authorities to work out visa issues, the Lam Dong Newspaper reported. Following the meeting, Kniazev understood that he was in violation and agreed to travel to Ho Chi Minh City to renew his passport and extend his visa, the official newspaper said. In an official statement, the Da Lat Police repudiated the reports that it arrested the Russian for the sign, and warned that people who share fake news related to Kniazev’s situation could face legal consequences, Tuoi Tre News reported. Kniazev used the word “arrest” when he described the situation in writing to RFA’s Vietnamese Service Tuesday. “They arrest me for 2 hours because I must wait my new visa in Saigon,” he said, using the name of Ho Chi Minh City before the communist era. “I follow Vietnam’s rules and go to Saigon. That’s all,” he wrote. Kniazev also said that the police told him “they do not welcome the political actions of foreigners.” RFA reported Monday that Vietnamese government-aligned “opinion workers” who promote the Communist Party and protect its image on social media are now pushing the Russian narrative about the situation in Ukraine on Vietnam’s social media. Vietnamese have shown support for Ukraine in various ways. Hundreds of people in Hanoi have taken part in events at the Ukrainian Embassy and fundraising events to raise money for those affected by the armed conflict. Translated by Anna Vu. Written in English by Eugene Whong.

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Shanghai-based Ji Xiaolong joins ranks of COVID-19 dissidents in China

Shanghai-based rights activist Ji Xiaolong, who was recently released on bail by police, vowed on Tuesday to keep speaking out against rights abuses in the city, much of which remains under tight restrictions amid renewed rounds of mass testing. Ji, who was incommunicado for two days after tweeting “The police are here looking for me” on Saturday. He told RFA late on Monday that he had been taken to the local police station for questioning. Police clad in full PPE started knocking on the door of his apartment in Yanlord Riverside City, Pudong New District at 3.00 p.m. on April 30, before breaking down the door and grabbing him and his wife. They gave no indication of their identity or purpose, but seized one of his laptops and two cell phones, as well as some letters he had exchanged with his wife in prison, Ji said. They were “disinfected” and subjected to PCR tests before being taken to Meiyuan New Village police station and interrogated separately. “I felt that something was up, because there were 10 of them this time, including two or three regular police officers from the local police station, some state security police from Pudong and also from the Shanghai municipal police department,” Ji said. “There were maybe four or five high-ranking officers.” Repeated calls to the Meiyuan New Village police station rang unanswered on Monday. Ji, who has already served a three-and-a-half year jail term for writing political graffiti in a Shanghai public toilet, has been a vocal critic of the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s zero-COVID policy of stringent lockdowns, mass isolation and quarantine facilities and wave upon wave of PCR testing that has sparked public anger over the “total chaos” of their implementation. People in Shanghai have repeatedly complained of shortages of food and essential supplies and lack of access to life-saving medical treatment for those sick with something other than COVID-19, during the lockdown. Policemen wearing personal protective equipment (PPE) stand on a street during a Covid-19 coronavirus lockdown in the Jing’an district in Shanghai, May 3, 2022. Credit: AFP Out on bond Ji was detained alongside his wife, who was released after a few hours, while he was released the following day on payment of a 1,000 yuan bond. “They confiscated by ID card, my passport and my cell phone, which has my Alipay account,” Ji said. “I can’t get a new SIM card because they took my ID,” Ji said. “So now I can’t go anywhere because you have to scan the [COVID-19] health code app to go anywhere.” “I can’t go to the mall, I can’t ride the subway, and I can’t take the bus,” he said. His questioning came after he posted a petition to several social media platforms calling on the central government in Beijing and the municipal authorities in Shanghai to suspend the “zero-COVID” policy, and compensate Chinese citizens and businesses for the economic losses it incurred. Ji had also posted a number of video clips and posts about Shanghai under lockdown. During the interview, police confronted him with various comments he had made to overseas media organizations including RFA, the Epoch Times and New Tang Dynasty TV, as well as the petition he started, some video clips he reposted and some social media posts he made. Ji said he had admitted to giving the interviews, and told them he had taken steps to verify the video clips before forwarding them. His bail notice says he is currently under suspicion of “picking quarrels and stirring up trouble,” a charge frequently used to target peaceful critics of the government. He said none of his interrogators had identified themselves to him, nor had they signed a transcript of the interview. “I firmly believe that I am innocent,” Ji said. “I won’t sit idly by and watch the people of Shanghai suffer, and I will continue [to speak out].” An undated photo of award-winning citizen journalist Zhang Zhan, who was sentenced in December 2020 to four years’ imprisonment by the Shanghai Pudong New District People’s Court after she reported from the front lines of the covid lockdown in Wuhan. Credit: Zhang Zhan. Citizen journalists in jail Ji isn’t the first to be targeted by the authorities anxious to prevent news from the front line of the zero-COVID policy reaching the internet. Award-winning citizen journalist Zhang Zhan, whose family has said she is close to death in Shanghai Women’s Prison, was sentenced in December 2020 to four years’ imprisonment by the Shanghai Pudong New District People’s Court, which found her guilty of “picking quarrels and stirring up trouble,” after she reported from the front lines of the lockdown in Wuhan. Meanwhile, private businessman Fang Bin has been incommunicado for more than two years after he reported as a citizen journalist from the early days of the pandemic in Wuhan. He is believed to be in Wuhan’s Jiang’an Detention Center pending a trial at the Jiang’an District People’s Court, according to an unconfirmed account shared with RFA in recent months. U.S.-based constitutional scholar Wang Tiancheng said more pandemic dissidents will likely follow in Zhang, Fang and Ji’s footsteps. “The situation will get worse and worse, and more people will be arrested for different reasons … some for criticizing the government, or accused by the authorities of spreading rumors when they were just telling the truth,” Wang told RFA. Six districts and five towns in Pudong were declared COVID-free by the Shanghai authorities on Sunday, but stringent lockdown conditions remain across nine other districts of the city. Ji was initially jailed for scribbling “Down with the Communist Party!” in a Shanghai public toilet as well as some satirical graffiti taking aim at CCP leader Xi Jinping’s removal of the two-term limit for China’s highest-ranking leaders. He was detained in July 2018 after calling on rights activists and democracy campaigners to respond to Xi’s call for a “toilet revolution” by penning political slogans on the walls of toilets in universities and hospitals that could be seen by thousands. Ji was sentenced to three-and-a-half years’ imprisonment…

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Japan, Taiwan militaries on alert as China flotilla heads to Pacific

The Japanese and Taiwanese militaries have been put on alert after a Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy flotilla led by the Liaoning aircraft carrier was spotted sailing from the East China Sea towards the Pacific Ocean. Japan Self-Defense Forces’ Joint Staff Office released a statement on Monday saying that the Liaoning, accompanied by seven destroyers and supply vessels, had left the East China Sea and passed through waters between Japan’s Okinawa and Miyako islands before entering the West Pacific. The Japanese defense ministry dispatched the Izumo light aircraft carrier, as well as P-1 maritime patrol aircraft and P-3C anti-submarine aircraft to monitor the activities of the Chinese ships, the statement said. Meanwhile on Tuesday, Taiwanese military spokesman Sun Li-fang told reporters that Taiwan’s military closely monitors Chinese military maneuvers in waters and airspace surrounding Taiwan, and would take “appropriate response measures.” According to the Japanese statement, among seven warships in the Liaoning carrier group were the Type 055 large guided missile destroyer Nanchang, the Type 052D guided missile destroyer Chengdu, and the Type 901 comprehensive supply ship Hulunhu. With a total of eight vessels, this is the largest Liaoning carrier group in recent voyages, said the state-run Chinese newspaper Global Times. The newspaper said it is likely that the Liaoning and other ships are to take part in a “routine PLA Navy far-sea exercise.” It quoted an anonymous military analyst as predicting that the Chinese ships “could go further east into the Pacific Ocean, or they could transit through the Bashi channel south of the island of Taiwan and conduct exercises in the South China Sea.” Combat training In one of the photos released by the Japanese military, the Liaoning – China’s first aircraft carrier – was seen carrying a number of J-15 fighter jets as well as Z-8 and Z-9 helicopters. This is the first time this year the Liaoning carrier group passed the so-called First Island Chain that includes Taiwan and Japan to enter the Pacific Ocean. Last December, the aircraft carrier and five other vessels conducted drills in the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea and the West Pacific for 21 days in order to boost its combat capability. Chinese naval movements in the close proximity of Taiwan have always been closely watched by the Taiwanese military, the island’s ministry of defense said. The ministry’s spokesman Sun Li-fang said Taiwan “has response plans based on possible actions by China.” The Liaoning regularly patrols the Taiwan Strait and may be deployed in the event of armed conflict with the self-governing island. China considers Taiwan a breakaway province that shall be united with the mainland. “It’s no secret that the Taiwanese Navy is totally overmatched by the PLA Navy,” said Gordon Arthur, a military analyst and Asia-Pacific editor of Shepherd, a defense news portal. “Last year, for example, China commissioned some combined 170,000 tonnage of new warships – this is more than the combined Taiwan’s fleet, and reflects Chinese additions in just one year.” “Taiwan cannot hope to compete with this, so it has been concentrating on vessels that will give it some asymmetric advantages,” Arthur said, adding that examples include the homemade Tuo Chiang-class corvette and the Indigenous Defense Submarine. Yet it’s still some years till the island’s Navy is fully capable to counter any blockade or invasion attempt by China, experts said.

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Pro-junta militia calls for killing of Myanmar reporters and their family members

A pro-junta militia that recently claimed responsibility for the slaying of opposition party members is now openly threatening to kill journalists and their families over content the military regime has dubbed “destructive to the state.” Last week, eight members of the deposed National League for Democracy (NLD) and their supporters were found brutally murdered with badges or cards on their bodies displaying the insignia of a group calling itself the Mandalay branch of the Thway Thauk, or “Blood Comrades,” militia. A social media post on the group’s Telegram account last week also called for the deaths of reporters and editors working for news outlets in Myanmar including The Irrawaddy, Mizzima, Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB) and The Irrawaddy Times — as well as their family members. Khit Thit media editor Tha Lun Zaung Htet, who was among those named in the Thway Thauk’s list, said he believes the group is acting on the orders of authorities, despite junta claims to the contrary. “This group is surely linked to the military because the victims were taken away by police or military vehicles and the bodies were later dropped by these same vehicles,” he said, adding that he is in possession of “photos taken by witnesses.” Photographs obtained by RFA show leaflets or cards bearing the group’s logo of crossed swords over the image of a man from Myanmar’s royal era left near the victim’s bodies — the same logo seen posted on the social media accounts of junta supporters and nationalist activists. Junta deputy minister of information, Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun, said during a press conference last week in Naypyidaw that the military has no ties to the Thway Thauk, adding that the only pro-junta militias active in the country formed independent of the regime in rural areas. At the same press conference, he accused seven media outlets of being “destructive elements” in Myanmar, including RFA, Khit Thit Media, The Irrawaddy, Mizzima, DVB and The Irrawaddy Times. “Ten local and foreign media outlets wrote around 55 inciting reports meant to disrupt Thingyan,” he said, referring to Myanmar’s April 13-16 New Year Water Festival, he said. “We saw seven media outlets reporting possible bomb threats during the week of Thingyan, and also publishing articles telling people not to participate in the festivities as a way of protest.” Thingyan — normally a bustling and jubilant holiday — was eerily silent in Myanmar’s main cities of Yangon and Mandalay, as residents chose to boycott junta-led festivities and heed warnings by armed opposition forces that the areas could become the target of attacks. An RFA investigation found that authorities arrested nearly 100 people in the two cities, as well as Myawaddy township in Kayin state, in the first 10 days of April as part of a pre-Thingyan crackdown. Some of those detained had joined anti-coup protests, while others were accused of being members of Yangon-based anti-junta paramilitary groups, including the People’s Defense Force (PDF). ‘A new low’ for press freedom Days ahead of International Press Freedom Day, veteran journalist Myint Kyaw said that the junta’s calling out of media outlets, combined with threats by groups such as the Thway Thauk, constituted “a new low” for Myanmar’s media environment. “We can say that [the junta and the Thway Thauk] have the same views because they think the media supports the opposition,” he said. “It’s not new that they would accuse us of such things when they think we are writing against them. But it’s unprecedented for them to threaten us and our families.” Sein Win, executive editor of Mizzima News, said the military and pro-junta armed groups are targeting and suppressing the media and journalists who report negatively on the junta, and expects the situation to continue while the military remains in power. “They don’t want people who criticize the military, who seek the truth or who value freedom of the press,” he said. “People will be arrested, imprisoned, and even killed. So long as there are military coups, democracy will remain dormant. Evil will reign if democracy cannot be given space to thrive.” An observer of the media, who declined to be named citing fear of reprisal, warned that a lack of legal protection for journalists in Myanmar will cripple the country’s development. “In short, freedom of the media is not protected in accordance with the law or international standards in current times,” they said. “Some are threatened, some are arrested, and some have died. … Journalists are seen as criminals and are constantly threatened. We are going back to the Dark Ages.” More than 50 journalists have been arrested on charges under Myanmar’s Penal Code since the military’s Feb. 1, 2021, coup, rather than for violations of the country’s media law. The business licenses of outlets including Myanmar Now, DVB, Khit Thit, 7 Days, Mizzima, Myitkyina Journal, The 74 Media, Tachileik News Agency, Delta News Agency, Zeyar Times and Kamaryut Media were revoked shortly after the military seized power. Paris-based media watchdog Reporters Without Borders ranks Myanmar 140th out of 180 countries in its annual Press Freedom Index and says the media environment is now at a danger level following last year’s coup. Translated by Khin Maung Nyane. Written in English by Joshua Lipes.

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Cambodia PM urges Myanmar junta boss to let ASEAN envoy meet Aung San Suu Kyi

Prime Minister Hun Sen has urged Myanmar’s military junta to allow the ASEAN special envoy to visit and meet deposed leader Aung San Suu Kyi, Cambodia’s Foreign Ministry said Tuesday. In a phone call Sunday, Hun Sen called on Snr. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, to allow the meetings and take other steps to implement a five-point agreement the junta leader reached between ASEAN’s foreign ministers in April 2021. Cambodia is the current rotating chair of the 10-nation Association of Southeast Asian Nations, and Hun Sen visited Myanmar in January and met Min Aung Hlaing and urged steps to resolve the political crisis sparked by his Feb. 1, 2021 coup. Hun Sen requested “further cooperation in facilitating the second visit to Myanmar by the ASEAN Chair’s Special Envoy special chairs envoy, possibly at the end of May,” the ministry said. “He reemphasized the importance of access for the Special Envoy to meet all parties concerned in Myanmar, including Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and former President Win Myint, for creating (a) conducive environment to start an inclusive political dialogue,” the ministry said. Aung San Suu Kyi and Win Myint are in detention and undergoing trial in military courts for what supporters say are politically motivated charges. The Cambodian leader also urged the junta chief to release political prisoners, “avoid excessive use of force in maintaining law and order” and to facilitate the delivery of humanitarian assistance particularly in conflict areas, it said. There was no immediate comment from Myanmar, but the Cambodian statement said Min Aung Hlaing had “pledged to facilitate meetings with other parties concerned.” Hun Sen is set to attend a May 12-13 summit between the U.S. and leaders of ASEAN, where the White House is keen to advance its vision of a “free and open” Indo-Pacific and discuss efforts to counter Chinese influence, but the Myanmar conflict is likely to be discussed. No progress has been made on the five-point agreement, which included an end to violence, the provision of humanitarian assistance, an ASEAN envoy’s appointment, all-party dialogue, and mediation by the envoy. Min Aung Hlaing has escalated the military’s attack on the people of Myanmar, and continued to target and detain political opponent. Nearly 1,800 people, mostly pro-democracy protesters, have been killed by Burmese security forces, since the coup.

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More than a dozen senior NLD officials sentenced for ‘graft’ in Myanmar in April

Military courts in Myanmar sentenced a total of 14 Cabinet ministers and senior officials from the deposed National League for Democracy (NLD) government to lengthy prison terms on corruption charges last month, according to data compiled by RFA’s Myanmar Service. On April 22, Deputy Minister for Construction Kyaw Lin was sentenced to 20 years in prison while directors-general Aung Mint Oo, Ye Min Zaw and Nay Aung Ye Myint were sentenced to two to four years in prison. That same day, Kachin State Chief Minister Khet Aung, Director of the State Municipal Authority Soe Naing, and ministers Wai Lin, Win Nyunt, La Sai, Naw Li, Zaw Win and Ne Win were also jailed on corruption charges. Former State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi, the head of the NLD who was arrested on the day of the military’s Feb. 1, 2021, coup, was sentenced to five years in prison on April 27 in the first of 11 corruption cases against her. Yangon Region Social Affairs Minister Naing Lin was also handed a prison sentence for corruption the following day. Naw Naw, the son of Khet Aung, told RFA that his father had worked tirelessly on behalf of the country only to end up jailed for 12 years on bogus corruption charges. “This sad development can be seen throughout the country, where all those who had worked in good faith are meeting the same fate,” he said. Mar La Myint, the wife of Ne Win, said her husband’s sentence was a blow to him and his entire family. “He was imprisoned before for his political beliefs, but this time it’s worse,” she said, adding that her husband was “incapable of corruption.” Other notable NLD officials who were sentenced on corruption charges last month include Sagaing Region Chief Minister Myint Naing, Bago Region Chief Minister Win Thein, and Yangon Region Transport Minister Nilar Kyaw. Plan to maintain power When asked for comment on last month’s sentences, junta deputy minister of information, Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun, told RFA that only those who are guilty of the charges against them had been sentenced. “We have no reason to put [NLD officials] into prison if didn’t do anything wrong,” he said. “If it were not for [their acts of] corruption, we wouldn’t have arrested them. No one is above the law. If you commit a crime, you will be punished accordingly.” But Win Myat Aye, minister for Humanitarian and Disaster Management for the shadow National Unity Government (NUG), told RFA the sentences were “part of the junta’s plan to hold onto power.” “They’ll do whatever it takes to reach their goal. From the very beginning, they seized state power by force. They’ll keep on using force to hold on to power,” he said. “What they are doing is illegal and not in line with the wishes of the people.” Political analyst Than Soe Naing said he sees the prison terms as part of a bid by the junta to exclude the NLD and its key party leaders from upcoming military-sponsored elections. “They are carrying out these unfair actions under unfair laws by unfair tribunals so that the NLD and all the party’s top leaders will not be able to run in the next election,” he said. “This year has seen a lot of unjust imprisonment under unjust legal procedures. I’m sure they are doing this to prevent the NLD taking part in the elections they are planning to hold.” Aung San Su Kyi, whose NLD ruled the country for five years and won re-election in November 2020 in a landslide vote that the army refused to honor, was sentenced in January to six years for violating export-import laws, the communications law and the natural disaster management law. She had already been sentenced to six years in prison on five of 18 charges lodged against her since the junta overthrew and detained her. With last week’s five-year sentence, she faces 11 years imprisonment from six charges, with 12 more charges pending. RFA records show that a total of 64 people, including NLD leaders and cabinet members, have been charged with corruption, in the 15 months since the military seized power. Translated by Khin Maung Nyane. Written in English by Joshua Lipes.

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At bilateral meet, Japanese, Thai PMs urge end to war in Ukraine

Japan and Thailand urged an end to the war in Ukraine and discussed working with the international community to provide humanitarian assistance, Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-Cha said after he met with his Japanese counterpart, Fumio Kishida, in Bangkok on Monday. The two countries also signed a defense deal as they reaffirmed their bilateral relationship during Kishida’s trip to Thailand, which coincides with the 135th anniversary of diplomatic relations and ten years of the strategic partnership between the two countries. Kishida arrived in Thailand Sunday evening for a two-day trip after visiting Vietnam, a staunch Russian ally, which nevertheless announced a humanitarian aid package worth U.S. $500,000 to Ukraine during the Japanese leader’s trip. “Concerning the situation in Ukraine, Thailand and Japan reaffirmed the principles of territorial integrity, international law, and the United Nations Charter. Both sides expressed concern over the escalation of tension in the situation and urged all relevant parties to cease all hostilities and violence and exercise utmost restraint,” Prayuth said in the statement. Japan condemned Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine and joined a slew of Western nations in imposing sanctions on Moscow. Thailand, meanwhile, abstained from a United Nations resolution vote to suspend Russia from the U.N. Human Rights Council for alleged human rights abuses in the war in Ukraine. It did however support a strongly worded U.N. resolution that “deplored” the aggression by Russia against Ukraine. Kishida said Japan admired Thailand for supporting the latter resolution. “I agree with Prime Minister Prayuth to denounce the violation of sovereignty and territorial integrity, unilateral use of force in any region, and disapproval of the use of weapons of mass destruction or the threat to use it,” the Japanese PM said. Prayuth also said he had proposed a “new approach towards ending confrontation which calls for the need to change the narrative of the Ukraine situation from conflict to humanitarian consideration for those who are affected by the Ukraine situation.” He said he had a similar approach “to resolve the situation in Myanmar and attached importance to humanitarian assistance for the people of Myanmar.” He did not give details about the so-called approach. Thailand shares a 2,400-kilometer (1,500-mile) long border with Myanmar. It has not outright condemned the coup in Myanmar or the actions of its security forces, which toppled the elected National League for Democracy (NLD) government on Feb. 1, 2021. Before arriving in Bangkok, the Japanese PM visited Hanoi where he spent fewer than 24 hours. He was received by all three of Vietnam’s top leaders, including the prime minister, the president, and the chairman of the national assembly. Speaking about Vietnam’s commitment of humanitarian aid for Ukraine, a Vietnamese analyst, Le Dang Doanh, said that Kishida’s visit helped Russian ally Vietnam “adjust its stance towards the Ukrainian war.” South China Sea At a meeting with his Vietnamese counterpart Pham Minh Chinh and the other Vietnamese leaders, Kishida also discussed the issue of the disputed South China Sea, and the need for a free and open Indo-Pacific. Vietnam shares interest with Japan in safeguarding maritime security in the South China Sea, where China holds expansive claims and has been militarizing reclaimed islands. China is involved in maritime disputes with Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea. China claims sovereignty over nearly all of the South China Sea, where Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam all have claims.  In Bangkok Monday, Kishida said that Japan along with Thailand hoped to “achieve the goal of [a] free and open Indo-Pacific and will closely cooperate to handle the matters of the South China Sea and North Korea and nuclear weapon and ballistic missile tests.” Defense deal Meanwhile the new defense equipment deal announced by Kishida and Prayuth would help facilitate the transfer of hardware and technology from Japan to Thailand, but the leaders provided no details. The deal “would support the strengthening of defense cooperation between the two countries and incentivize Japanese investment in the Thai defense industry, which is one of the targeted industries,” Prayuth said in a joint press conference held at the Government House in Bangkok on Monday evening. “The signing of our defense equipment and technology transfer agreement is a major step forward in expanding bilateral defense cooperation,” Kishida said. The two countries will later decide on the specific types of equipment for transfer. Apart from the defense deal, the two leaders also witnessed the signing of agreements to deepen financial cooperation between Japan and Thailand. Additionally, Japan gave Thailand COVID-19 emergency support worth 50 billion yen (U.S. $384 million) in loans and 500 million yen in grants aid, according to a joint statement. The two leaders discussed improvements in agricultural supply chains and agreed to continue working together on the Mekong sub-region, “particularly in promoting connectivity, human resource development, and sustainable development,” the statement said. Japan is Thailand’s biggest foreign investor, followed by the United States and Singapore. According to the Thai commerce ministry, Japanese investors represented 28.6 percent of the overall foreign investment in Thailand, worth more than 82.5 billion baht (U.S. $ 2.39 billion), in 2021. Japan’s investments, especially in the automotive industry, have been vital to Thailand’s economic growth in the last several decades.

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Philippines vote: Marcos seen as pro-China; Robredo will likely test Beijing ties

China would likely enjoy friendly ties with the Philippines if Ferdinand Marcos Jr. wins next week’s presidential election, while his main challenger, Vice President Leni Robredo, has vowed to seek help in protecting Philippine waters in the South China Sea, American analysts said. They say Marcos Jr. closely hews to the stance of outgoing President Rodrigo Duterte, who chose to ignore the 2016 Hague tribunal ruling that threw out China’s expansive claims in the South China Sea as Beijing promised rivers of money for infrastructure development. “Marcos is the most pro-Beijing of all candidates,” said Greg Poling, a Southeast Asia analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington-based policy research organization. “He is the most pro-Chinese in a system where most people are anti-Chinese. He avoids the press and debates, and what we have are these off-the-cuff remarks that are pro-Chinese. He is a friend of the Chinese embassy,” said Poling, director of CSIS’s Southeast Asia Program and Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative. He was referring to anti-Chinese government sentiment among much of the Philippine population who see their fishermen’s livelihoods being threatened and lives being endangered by alleged harassment on the part of Chinese navy and coast guard ships. Marcos Jr., the son and namesake of the country’s late dictator deposed by a people power revolt in 1986, has consistently led opinion polls ahead of the May 9 general elections to replace Duterte, who is limited by the constitution to a single six-year term. The latest survey conducted by independent pollster Pulse Asia from April 16-21 showed Marcos Jr. in the lead with 56 percent support, and Robredo in second place with 23 percent. The eight other candidates competing, including boxing superstar Manny Pacquiao, are already out of contention, according to experts. Marcos Jr. is running alongside Sara Duterte-Carpio, Duterte’s daughter, in what they tout as a continuity ticket that would safeguard the outgoing leader’s legacy. Pundits say that a Robredo government would take a tougher stance on Beijing over the sea dispute, and put an immediate stop to the Duterte government’s deadly war on drugs, which has killed thousands and battered the country’s international image. ‘Not a man of strong opinions’ Poling said that Marcos Jr. does not appear to “have many political beliefs” when it comes to the South China Sea, while Robredo has said she would enforce a 2016 arbitral ruling invalidating China’s claims to almost the entire, mineral-rich South China Sea. Robredo has stressed repeatedly that the West Philippine Sea, or that part of the South China Sea that falls within the country’s exclusive economic zone, belongs to the Philippines, and that she “will fight for that.” And she has put forward an idea never even entertained by the Duterte administration: that the ruling could be used to create a coalition of nations to pressure China. Poling said Robredo may not be ideologically pro-American or a “cheerleader for the alliance,” but she appears to be a nationalist who could tap allies for help in the territorial row that has dragged on for years. “She is pragmatic about the South China Sea. [She believes] China is a threat and violates the rule of law in the South China Sea,” Poling said, adding that there was reason to believe that her victory could strengthen the Philippine-U.S. alliance. Manila is Washington’s biggest ally in Southeast Asia, where an increasingly assertive China is encroaching on other claimant nations’ exclusive economic zones in the disputed South China Sea. Duterte tested the U.S.-Philippines relationship, threatening to drop one of many bilateral security agreements and vowing never to set foot in the United States while president. Marcos Jr. has said he would not rock the boat if he won, and would largely continue with Duterte’s policies. But, unlike the outgoing leader, he does not appear to have animosity towards Washington, analysts point out. “The impression you get of him is that he does and says things not of his own initiative but based on what people around him say. He is not a man of strong opinions,” said Vicente Rafael, a professor of Southeast Asian Studies at the University of Washington. Both candidates have little foreign policy experience, though in this election that area does not carry enough weight to swing votes, analysts said. Domestically, the Philippine economy is just recovering after being in one of the world’s longest lockdowns due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Foreign policy “is not a big deal in these elections,” according to Andrew Yeo, a senior fellow at The Brookings Institute. “The biggest issue is recovering from the pandemic.” Yeo said that relations with the U.S. are unlikely to get worse under Marcos Jr., because “the Philippine military is very supportive of the alliance with the U.S. and so is the foreign policy establishment.” “Marcos Jr. would have to calibrate his policies carefully, because he has to rely on the military and defense and foreign policy establishment for military and foreign policy. He will have to play some politics to keep them satisfied,” Yeo said. On Robredo, the Brookings fellow said that it is clear she would support the alliance with the U.S., which supports the rule of law and freedom of navigation in the seas. “She won’t bend to the will of China, like Duterte who gave up on the Hague ruling. She won’t do that,” he said. BenarNews is an RFA-affiliated online news service.

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Zero-COVID policy in Chinese border city stops freight to North Korea

North Korea and China are again suspending rail freight as Beijing’s zero-Covid policy spreads to cities on the Sino-Korean border, sources in both countries told RFA. A spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China announced at an April 29 news briefing that it would temporarily suspend all freight transportation between China’s Dandong and North Korea’s Sinuiju because of the COVID-19 situation in Dandong. Dandong and Sinuiju lie on opposite sides of the Yalu River that separates the two countries, and are the key hubs in Sino-North Korean trade. “The Dandong-Sinuiju freight train … will operate until the end of this month and will be suspended again from May 1,” a source from the North Korean province of North Pyongan told RFA’s Korean Service last week. “Since COVID-19 is spreading in Dandong … the city government began to lock down the city from the 25th and restricted residents’ movement. Because Dandong is locked down, our side is also suspending freight trains to prevent COVID-19,” said the source, who requested anonymity for security reasons. The rail stoppage comes as tens of millions of residents of major Chinese cities such as Beijing and Shanghai are facing rigid lockdowns and strict testing regimens as the country tries to stop the spread of the omicron variant of COVID-19 under the Communist Party’s zero-COVID policy. At the beginning of the pandemic in early 2020, Beijing and Pyongyang closed the border and suspended all trade, a move that was disastrous to the North Korean economy. Rail freight finally resumed on a limited basis almost two years later in January 2022, only to be shut off again after less than four months due to the lockdowns Days before the closure, traders made preparations for the last shipments, the source said. “The freight station is now filled with fertilizer, pesticide and food purchased by North Korean trading companies as national emergency goods. The last trains will be shipped to a quarantine facility in Uiju either tomorrow or the day after,” he said. RFA reported last year that North Korea had completed a new rail line between Sinuiju and a quarantine facility in Uiju, in anticipation of trade reopening prior to the end of the pandemic. The new facility allows entire trainloads of cargo to be sterilized prior to distribution to Pyongyang and the rest of the country. A second source familiar with Sino-North Korean trade in Dandong confirmed that rail freight would stop at the beginning of May. “North Korea urgently needs farming materials and fertilizer, so the two sides have both agreed to bring the supplies to Sinuiju by the end of this month,” he said. “People expect that the freight train between Dandong and Sinuiju will resume only after COVID-19 disappears and the city lockdown is lifted throughout China.” The lockdown in Dandong forbids all 2.2 million residents from leaving their homes and requires them to submit to daily testing. Translated by Claire Lee and Leejin J. Chung. Written in English by Eugene Whong.

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