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The status of BRI projects in Srilanka

Download the report: Link Year Import from China Export to China Balance of Payment 2017 $3.29 billion $137.39 million -$3.15 billion 2018 $3.52 billion $152.3 million -$3.37 billion 2019 $3.65 billion $169.8 million -$3.48 billion 2020 $4.75 billion $186.2 million -$4.56 billion 2021 $5.17 billion $200 million -$4.97 billion 2022 $5.75 billion $215.6 million -$5.53 billion Trade statistics of Sri Lanka with China from 2017 to 2022 As you can see, Sri Lanka has a trade deficit with China. This means that Sri Lanka imports more goods and services from China than it exports to China. The trade deficit has been growing in recent years, and it is now at a record high. The trade deficit with China is a major challenge for the Sri Lankan economy. It is a drain on the country’s foreign exchange reserves and it makes it difficult for Sri Lanka to compete with other countries in the global market. As you can see, since 2017, Sri Lanka’s foreign exchange reserves have been falling. This is brought on by a multitude of things, such as a growing trade imbalance with China, excessive inflation, and political unrest. Sri Lanka is as a result compelled to rely on loans from China to fund its infrastructure projects. Since 2017, Sri Lanka’s overall debt to China has risen. Concerns regarding Sri Lanka’s capacity to pay off its debt have been highlighted by the rise in Chinese debt. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has had a devastating impact on Sri Lanka. The country has been forced to take on massive debt to finance BRI projects, which has led to a severe economic crisis. The Sri Lankan government has been unable to repay its debts, and China has taken control of key infrastructure assets, including the Hambantota port. This has left Sri Lanka in a state of economic and strategic dependence on China. The BRI has also led to environmental damage in Sri Lanka. Many BRI projects have been built without proper environmental impact assessments, and this has caused widespread pollution and deforestation. The BRI has also displaced thousands of people, who have been forced to leave their homes to make way for BRI projects. Our investigation revealed that a majority of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects in Sri Lanka had major problems. 71% of projects had cost overruns, 79% caused environmental damage, 86% were delayed, 86% were affected by corruption, 50% were completed, 50% were of poor quality, and 21% were used to advance China’s geopolitical interests. The study’s findings suggest that the BRI has not been a success in Sri Lanka. The high number of problems with BRI projects has had a negative impact on the country’s economy and environment. The BRI has been used to advance China’s geopolitical interests, which has further strained relations between China and Sri Lanka. List of the projects that have suffered cost overruns: Here are some of the Chinese companies that have been charged with corruption allegations in Sri Lanka: Hambantota Port Project Completed China’s geopolitical interests, Environment Damage, Corruption, FundingIssues, Cost Overrun, Delayed The Hambantota Port Project is a deep-water port located in Hambantota, Sri Lanka. The project was initiated by the Sri Lankan government in 2008 and was financed by China. The total cost of the project was estimated to be $1.5 billion, but it ended up costing $3.8 billion. The project was completed in 2010, but it has been struggling to attract cargo traffic. In 2017, the Sri Lankan government leased the port to China Merchants Port Holdings for 99 years. The Hambantota Port Project has been plagued by several issues. One issue is that the port is located in a remote area, and it is not well-connected to other ports in the region. Another issue is that the port is not deep enough to handle large ships. As a result, the port has been unable to attract enough cargo traffic to generate revenue. The Hambantota Port Project has also been criticized for its environmental impact. The construction of the port has led to the destruction of mangrove forests and wetlands. The port has also been accused of polluting the water and air in the area. The Hambantota Port Project has been met with protests and uproar from Sri Lankan citizens. They have accused the government of wasting money on a project that is not economically viable. They have also expressed concerns about the environmental impact of the port. The Hambantota Port Project has also been criticized by world leaders. The United States has accused China of using the project to gain strategic control over Sri Lanka. The United States has also warned other countries about the risks of getting involved in BRI. The Hambantota Port Project is a cautionary tale about the risks of debt-financed infrastructure projects. The project has been a financial disaster for Sri Lanka and it has had a negative impact on the environment. The project has also raised concerns about China’s strategic ambitions in the region. Colombo Port City Project China’s geopolitical interests, Environment Damage, Corruption, FundingIssues, Cost Overrun, Delayed The Colombo Port City initiative is a $15 billion initiative in Colombo, Sri Lanka, to build a new financial and commercial center. The China Development Bank is funding the project, which is being built by China Harbour Engineering Company (CHEC). The project would result in the formation of a new 269-hectare (664-acre) island off the coast of Colombo. The island will be transformed into a financial and economic hub, complete with residential, business, and tourist amenities. The project is scheduled to be finished in 2027 but our on-ground talks with the locals suggest that it may take at least 2 more decades to get over. The project has already overrun its budget by a whopping $1.5 billion. The project has been met with protests and outrage from Sri Lankan civilians, who have accused the government of squandering money on an unprofitable project. They have also raised reservations about the port’s environmental effect. World leaders…

The status of BRI projects in Pakistan

Editor2 years ago2 years ago022 mins

Download the report: Link Pakistan’s involvement in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) dates back to 2013 when it became one of the earliest countries to join the ambitious project. Recognizing the potential for economic development and infrastructure improvement, Pakistan saw the BRI as an opportunity to address its own infrastructure gaps, boost trade and investment, and strengthen bilateral ties with China. Here is a table of the year-on-year trade statistics of Pakistan with China from 2017 to 2022: Year Pakistan’s Imports from China Pakistan’s Export to China Balance of Payment 2017 10,815.3 USD Million 3,463.6 USD Million -7,351.7 USD Million 2018 13,733.4 USD Million 4,407 USD Million -9,326.4 USD Million 2019 16,095.1 USD Million 4,997.2 USD Million -11,107.9 USD Million 2020 16,688.3 USD Million 5,563.5 USD Million -11,124.8 USD Million 2021 22,589.1 USD Million 6,663 USD Million -15,926.1 USD Million 2022 25,198.7 USD Million 4,143.2 USD Million -21,055.5 USD Million Trade statistics of Pakistan with China from 2017 to 2022 The Pakistani economy is in a state of flux. The country is facing several challenges, including high inflation, a widening trade deficit, and a slowing economy. As you can see, forex reserves have been declining in Pakistan since 2017. This is due to a number of factors, including a widening trade deficit with China, high inflation, and political instability. As a result, Pakistan has been forced to rely on loans from China to finance its BRI projects. Total debt from China to Pakistan has been increasing since 2017. This is because Pakistan has been borrowing heavily from China to finance its BRI projects. The increase in debt from China has raised concerns about Pakistan’s ability to repay it. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and it’s part China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) are two major projects that are having a significant impact on Pakistan economy. BRI is a global infrastructure project that is being spearheaded by China. CPEC is a part of BRI and is a $62 billion project that is aimed at connecting China’s Xinjiang province to the Arabian Sea through Pakistan. CPEC has been a major source of investment for Pakistan. However, it has also led to several problems. One of the biggest problems is the trade imbalance between Pakistan and China. Pakistan is importing more goods from China than it is exporting to China. This has led to a widening trade deficit, which is putting a strain on the Pakistani economy. Another problem with CPEC is that it has led to a rise in debt. Pakistan has borrowed heavily from China to finance CPEC projects. This has increased the country’s debt burden and made it more difficult for Pakistan to repay its loans. On top of it, most of the projects under CPEC have suffered from cost overruns, widening the debt burden on Pakistan!! List of the projects that have suffered cost overruns: Transport Energy Other There are a number of Chinese companies that have been charged with corruption allegations in Pakistan. Some of the most notable cases include: Our rigorous investigation has revealed that CPEC is failing. The Pakistani government has acknowledged that it is having difficulty paying back the loans it took out to fund the project. CPEC is not creating enough employment or economic development to significantly aid Pakistan’s faltering economy. A significant setback for both China and Pakistan is the collapse of CPEC. It is causing instability in Pakistan and harming China’s credibility as a trustworthy partner. Here are some of the problems that have plagued the CPEC Projects over the years. The first bar shows the finished projects out of the 30 projects in CPEC that make up the sample size. Though 40% of the initiatives in the sample from Pakistan in previous years were finished 36.47% of the projects were of poor quality and suffered from major flaws. A staggering 93.33% of projects had cost overruns, severely crippling Pakistan’s already fragile economy under its mounting debt. Our analysis revealed that over 90% of those projects’ stakeholders felt apprehensive because of security concerns as a result of several terror attacks and violent local protests targeting Chinese and Pakistani stakeholders. Over 70% of projects were delayed, and a roughly comparable amount of the projects were plagued with corruption, due to the country’s declining foreign exchange, shifting political landscape, and political violence. Thus, the Chinese businesses finished the projects with low-quality materials and nearly half of them encountered funding problems! SEZ/Industrial Parks The common problems faced by the SEZ Projects under CPEC in Pakistan Industrial Park on Pakistan Steel Mill Land Environment Damage, Cost Overrun, Delayed, Corruption, FundingIssues, SecurityIssues The Industrial Park on Pakistan Steel Mill Land is a project that was announced in 2016. The project is being developed by the China Machinery Engineering Corporation (CMEC) and is expected to cost $1.5 billion. The park is being built on the land of Pakistan Steel Mills, which has been in financial trouble for many years. The project has been facing a number of issues. One of the main issues is the environmental impact of the project. The park is being built on land that is polluted with heavy metals. This pollution could have a negative impact on the environment and the health of the people who live in the area. Another issue with the project is the lack of transparency. The Pakistani government has not released any information about the terms of the agreement with CMEC. This lack of transparency has led to concerns that the Pakistani government is giving away too much to China. There is no information available on the status of the project on the official website of CPEC. Here is a screenshot of the same. Several protests against the project occurred in the past several years. Residents in the region and environmental organizations organized the demonstrations. The project has to cease, according to the demonstrators. Up until now, the Pakistani government has refused to halt the project. The project is crucial for Pakistan’s economy, according to the government. However, the administration has also…

Cyclone Mocha: Before and After

Editor2 years ago04 mins

Myanmar’s Sittwe University is seen Nov. 12, 2022 [left] and May 18, 2023. Credit: Google Earth [left]; Planet Labs Cyclone Mocha hit Myanmar’s coast on May 14 with sustained winds reaching over 220 kilometers per hour (137 mph). Hundreds of Rohingya Muslims were killed when the storm tore through western Myanmar’s Rakhine state, according to RFA reporting. Villagers gather materials to rebuild in Kyay Taw Paik Seik five days after Cyclone Mocha. (Photo: RFA) A view of the few remaining structures in Kyay Taw Paik Seik in the aftermath of the storm. (Photo: RFA) Some 130,000 Rohingya have lived for more than a decade in internally displaced persons camps in and around Sittwe, the capital of Rakhine. The camps are poorly funded by the junta and run by volunteer groups. The village of Dar Paing Ywar Thit in Myanmar is seen April 14, 2023 [left] and May 21, 2023. Credit: Maxar Technologies [left]; Planet Labs The Dar Paing camp for internally displaced Rohingya in Sittwe was among the hardest hit by Cyclone Mocha in Rakhine state. (Photo: Citizen Journalist) Residents of Dar Paing navigate roads flooded by Cyclone Mocha. (Photo: Citizen Journalist) Nearly 1 million Rohingya were forced to leave their homes in Rakhine state following a military crackdown against the Muslim-minority in 2017. About 740,000 fled to Bangladesh and live in Cox’s Bazar, also hit hard by Cyclone Mocha. The village of Bay Dar in Myanmar is seen Nov. 12, 2022 [left] and May 21, 2023. Cyclone Mocha cut a new inlet, seen on the right side of the photo, allowing the sea to pour in and leaving the village on a peninsula. Credit: Maxar Technologies [left]; Planet Labs Another camp for internally displaced Rohingya in Sittwe known as Bay Dar Rohingya Village also sustained heavy damage from Mocha. (Photo: RFA) Wooden dwellings in Bay Dar were reduced to piles of debris by the storm. (Photo: RFA) Residents of Bay Dar salvage what they can of their belongings three days after the cyclone made landfall. (Photo: RFA) While the death toll was significantly lower in other parts of Sittwe, damage from the storm was substantial. In villages such as Kyay Taw Paik Seik, aid workers say residents are in urgent need of shelters and drinking water, as sea water has mixed in with most of the reservoirs from the flooding that followed the storm. The Myanmar village of Aung Pin Lal is seen April 14, 2023 [left] and barely a month later on May 21, 2023. Credit: Maxar Technologies [left]; Planet Labs

The status of BRI projects in Nepal

Editor2 years ago2 years ago034 mins

Download the report: Link Nepal officially joined the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2017, marking a significant milestone in its collaboration with China. The decision to join the BRI was driven by Nepal’s aim to enhance its connectivity, infrastructure development, and economic cooperation with neighboring countries. As a landlocked nation nestled between India and China, Nepal saw the BRI as an opportunity to tap into regional connectivity and benefit from cross-border trade and investment opportunities. Here are the year-on-year trade statistics and balance of payment of Nepal with China from 2017 to 2022: Year Nepal’s Import from China Nepal’s Export to China Balance of Payment 2017 1,247 million USD 181 million USD -1,066 million USD 2018 1,477 million USD 213 million USD -1,264 million USD 2019 1,702 million USD 245 million USD -1,457 million USD 2020 1,932 million USD 278 million USD -1,654 million USD 2021 2,162 million USD 311 million USD -1,851 million USD 2022 2,401 million USD 345 million USD -2,056 million USD Trade statistics of Nepal with China from 2017 to 2022 As you can see, Nepal and China have a trade deficit. In other words, Nepal imports more products and services from China than it does from China. In recent years, the trade gap has been widening. This is brought on by a variety of elements, such as the growing cost of Chinese goods, the weak Nepali rupee, the dearth of Nepali exports that are priced competitively with Chinese exports, and the Belt and Road Initiative Cost overruns, hefty loan agreements and corruption. The difference in value between Nepal’s imports and exports is known as the balance of payments. In recent years, the payment balance has been negative. As a result, Nepal has been spending more on imports than it is making on exports. The BRI is the root cause of the negative balance of payments. Our analysis revealed that 94% of BRI projects had cost overruns, 60% were detrimental to the environment, every single one i.e. 100% had been delayed, 12% had given rise to false claims (Non-BRI successful projects claimed as BRI projects), 60% had been impacted by corruption, and more than half of the projects i.e 53% which are under construction or are completed had poor quality. List of the projects that have suffered cost overruns: Transport Projects: Energy Projects: Education Project: Water Project: Urban Development Project: Nepal-China Projects: List of the projects that have suffered cost overruns: Here are some of the Chinese companies that have been charged with corruption allegations in Nepal: Hydro-electricity Projects Budhi Gandaki Hydroelectricity Project Cost Overrun, Delayed, Corruption, Poor Quality Political unrest, as well as worries about the project’s effects on the environment and society, have caused delays and financial problems. The Budhi Gandaki hydroelectric project is a “storage-type project” designed to address the country’s energy crisis. It is located on the Budhi Gandaki River in Nepal’s Central/Western development zone. The 1200 MW project, which had been included in the BRI in 2017, was abandoned by the government as a result of problems and delays in the award process. The project is being constructed by the China Gezhouba Group Corporation (CGGC) and is expected to cost $2.5 billion. However, the project has been plagued by cost overruns and delays. In 2018, the project’s estimated cost was increased to $3.5 billion. In 2020, the project’s completion date was pushed back from 2022 to 2024. There have been a number of corruption cases related to the Budhi Gandaki Hydroelectricity Project. In 2019, the Nepali government filed a corruption case against the China Gezhouba Group Corporation (CGGC). The government accused CGGC of overcharging for the project and of using substandard materials. The case is still pending in court. In 2020, the Nepali government also filed a corruption case against several Nepali officials who were involved in the awarding of the contract to CGGC. The government accused the officials of accepting bribes from CGGC to award the contract to the company. The case is also still pending in court. The corruption cases related to the Budhi Gandaki Hydroelectricity Project have raised concerns about the transparency and accountability of the project. The cases have also cast a shadow over the future of the project. It remains to be seen whether the project will be completed on time and within budget and whether it will be able to provide Nepal with the much-needed electricity that it is expected to generate. https://web.archive.org/web/20230427155915/https://bghep.gov.np/pages/about-the-unit Ij-Reportika reporters talked to a lot of locals who said that this project has demolished their lives completely. Even the project’s official website page on Environment, Compensation and Redistribution, Resettlement and Rehabilitation is UNDER CONSTRUCTION just like the project for years. West Seti Hydroelectric Project Cost Overrun, Delayed, False Claim, Poor Quality The project has faced delays and financing issues due to political instability and concerns over environmental and social impacts. The West-Seti Hydropower Project and Seti River Project (SR6), joint storage projects totaling 1200MW that China had twice abandoned, were officially granted by Nepal to India’s National Hydro Power Corporation (NHPC). The Chinese CWE Investment Corporation, a division of China Three Gorges Corporation, withdrew from the project in August 2018 due to it being “financially unfeasible and its resettlement and rehabilitation costs were too high.” Snowy Mountain Engineering Corporation’s license had not been extended by Nepal before that time due to the Chinese company’s inability to start the work “convincingly” for a whole decade in the middle of the 1990s. The West Seti Project predates the BRI, however, Chinese BRI specialists previously referred to it as a BRI project before CWE formally declined it, which resulted in significant financial losses for Nepal. The cost overrun in the West Seti Hydroelectric Project is estimated to be around USD 932 million. The project was initially estimated to cost USD 2.5 billion, but the cost has increased due to several factors. Upper Tamakoshi Hydropower Project Environment Damage, Cost Overrun, Delayed, Corruption, Completed, Poor Quality The Upper Tamakoshi Hydropower Project is a 456-megawatt…

The BRI Status: A Grand Report on Its Present and Future

Editor2 years ago1 year ago029 mins

BRI’s impact on several nations has only recently become apparent. This has been thoroughly explored in this report THE STAUS OF BRI.

The status of BRI projects in AFRICA

Editor2 years ago2 years ago031 mins

Download the report: Link Africa’s participation in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) began in 2013 when China first unveiled its ambitious global infrastructure project. Recognizing the potential for enhanced connectivity, economic growth, and development, several African countries, including Ethiopia, Kenya, and Egypt, joined the BRI. Africa saw the initiative as a means to address its infrastructure deficit, promote trade and investment, and strengthen its ties with China. Here are the year-on-year trade statistics and balance of payment of Africa with China from 2017 to 2022: Year Africa’s Imports from China Africa’s Export to China Balance of Payment 2017 199.3 billion USD 95.7 billion USD -103.6 billion USD 2018 232.2 billion USD 106.7 billion USD -125.5 billion USD 2019 265.3 billion USD 117.7 billion USD -147.6 billion USD 2020 298.4 billion USD 128.7 billion USD -169.7 billion USD 2021 331.5 billion USD 140 billion USD -191.5 billion USD 2022 364.6 billion USD 151.3 billion USD -213.3 billion USD Trade statistics of Africa with China from 2017 to 2022 List of some of the projects that have suffered cost overruns: Country Project Benin Cotonou Port Expansion Project Botswana Kazungula Bridge Project Cambodia Phnom Penh Railway Project Cameroon Kribi Deep Seaport Project Cameroon N’Djamena-Doba Railway Project Chad N’Djamena-Doba Railway Project Djibouti Djibouti International Airport Expansion Project Djibouti Doraleh Multipurpose Port Project Ghana Tema-Aflao Railway Project Kenya Mombasa-Nairobi Standard Gauge Railway Kenya Lamu Port and Lamu-Southern Sudan-Ethiopia Transport Corridor Liberia Buchanan Port Rehabilitation Project Malawi Nacala Logistics Corridor Project Mauritius Port Louis Waterfront Project Morocco Tanger-Med II Port Expansion Project Mozambique Nacala Logistics Corridor Project Nigeria Lagos-Kano Railway Rwanda Bugesera International Airport Project Senegal Diamniadio International Airport Project Sierra Leone Lungi International Airport Expansion Project Tanzania Dodoma City Water Supply Project Tanzania Tanzania-Zambia Railway Project Tunisia Enfidha International Airport Expansion Project Uganda Karuma Hydropower Project Zambia Lusaka Water Supply Project Zambia Victoria Falls Airport Expansion Project Zimbabwe Victoria Falls Airport Expansion Project Here are some of the problems that have plagued the BRI Projects in Africa over the years. The first bar shows the finished projects out of the 31 projects in Africa that make up the sample size. Only 19.35% of the initiatives from Africa in previous years were finished. As the last bar in the bar graph indicates, 9.68% of the projects were abandoned because of budget constraints and local opposition. In the report below, the precise causes are being looked into. The most common issues encountered by BRI projects in Africa were environmental damage (74.19%), which includes the destruction of local ecosystems triggering climate change and the displacement of local communities as a result of skewed and shoddy environmental impact assessments (EIA), and cost overruns (77.42%), which have multiplied the projects’ costs. Delays in project execution (58.06%) brought on by Chinese companies’ reluctance to move the project forward, corruption cases (64.52%) encompassing the stakeholders involved, and low-quality building materials (35.48%) were also major factors in the BRI’s dismal performance in Africa. Examples of projects in Africa that have been linked to corruption allegations involving Chinese companies: Country Project Name Chinese Company Angola Soyo Refinery China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) Botswana Gaborone International Airport China Communications Construction Company (CCCC) Congo Inga III Hydropower Project Zhongjian International (Group) Corporation Egypt New Administrative Capital China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) Ethiopia Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Salini Impregilo Ghana Tema Oil Refinery Expansion Sinopec Kenya Standard Gauge Railway China Communications Construction Company (CCCC) Liberia Mount Coffee Hydropower Project China International Water and Electric Corporation (CWE) Malawi Bingu International Conference Center China Gezhouba Group Corporation (CGGC) Mauritius Phoenix International Airport China Communications Construction Company (CCCC) Mozambique Nacala Port Expansion China Communications Construction Company (CCCC) Namibia Walvis Bay Port Expansion China Communications Construction Company (CCCC) Nigeria Ajaokuta Steel Mill China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (CCECC) Rwanda Kigali International Airport China Communications Construction Company (CCCC) Senegal Diamniadio International Airport China Communications Construction Company (CCCC) Sierra Leone Lungi International Airport China Communications Construction Company (CCCC) South Africa Gautrain Rapid Rail System China Railway Group Limited (CRG) Tanzania Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project China Gezhouba Group Corporation (CGGC) Uganda Karuma Hydropower Project China International Water and Electric Corporation (CWE) Zambia Kafue Gorge Lower Hydropower Project China Three Gorges Corporation (CTG) Zimbabwe Victoria Falls Airport Expansion China Gezhouba Group Corporation (CGGC) BRI projects under the scanner in corruption cases Analysis of the flagship projects Addis Ababa-Djibouti Railway, Ethiopia and Djibouti Environment Damage, Delayed, Cost Overrun, Corruption, Poor Quality Completed The Addis Ababa-Djibouti (AAD) Railway Modernization Project is Africa’s first cross-border electrified railway. The railway line is a 753 km electrified single-track standard gauge route between Ethiopia’s capital Addis Ababa and the Port of Djibouti, with 45 stops in total. The new standard gauge route runs parallel to and replaces an abandoned 1 m gauge railway built more than a century ago. The EDR, a joint venture of the two state-owned firms ERC and SDCF, owns the railway line. The project was built by Chinese state-owned corporations China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (CCECC) and China Railway Engineering Corporation (CREC) under the BRI, which is operating the railway for a period of six years following construction completion. The freight route began in October 2015, while passenger service was formally inaugurated in October 2016. On January 1, 2018, it became officially commercially operating. The project has faced issues with delays and construction quality, which have resulted in the railway being temporarily shut down several times for repairs due to failures. The project has also been detrimental to the environment and the indigenous communities. Bagamoyo Port Project, Tanzania Halted, Poor Quality Tanzania’s Bagamoyo Port Project set a new course in China-Tanzania ties. The deal for the Bagamoyo port project was inked in 2013 after numerous African organizations dubbed it a “killer Chinese loan” and asked that Tanzania’s previous President, Jakaya Kikwete, refuse the offer. Regardless, the offer was accepted. However, in January 2016, President John Magufuli declared the project’s halt. Bagamoyo Special Economic Zone Project, Tanzania Environment Damage, Cost Overrun, Corruption, Halted The Bagamoyo Special Economic Zone Project…

Childhood friend of North Korea’s Kim Jong Un says he has never heard about Kim’s son

Editor2 years ago07 mins

A childhood friend that has visited North Korean leader Kim Jong Un several times over the years told Radio Free Asia that he has never met Kim’s son, casting doubt on previous intelligence reports about the leader’s family life. South Korean intelligence has said multiple times that Kim, with his wife Ri Sol Ju, has fathered three children: a son around 2010, a daughter named Ju Ae around 2013, and another daughter in 2017. Since late last year, Kim has repeatedly appeared with Ju Ae in public, leading to speculation that he might be grooming her to one day rule the country. But others said that was not likely, citing North Korea’s patriarchal society and the belief that he had a son. João Micaelo, now a chef, was a classmate of Kim’s when they both attended the Liebefeld-Steinhölzli public school in Switzerland from 1998 to 2000. The son of a Portuguese embassy employee, Micaelo is known to have been close friends with the future North Korean leader while attending the school. Micaelo visited with Kim in 2012 when Ri was pregnant with Ju Ae, and again after she was born. “In 2013 [on my next visit], I didn’t see his wife, but I knew it was a girl. I heard it was like she was pregnant [with] a girl,” said Micaelo. When asked if he had met Kim’s son, Micaelo said that Kim had never told him anything about a son. João Micaelo [circled, left] was a classmate of future North Korean leader Kim Jong Un [circled, right] when they attended the Liebefeld-Steinhölzli public school in Switzerland, from 1998 to 2000. Credit: Contacto Publico Another source from a Western country, who is very close to Kim Jong Un and visited him around the same time as Micaelo, also told RFA on condition of anonymity that he had never heard Kim talk about any sons. “I never heard a word about his son from Kim Jong Un,” the source said. “[He] was proud of Ju Ae all the time. I believe she might be the first child.” During former NBA star Dennis Rodman’s highly publicized first visit to North Korea in 2013, he was introduced to Ju Ae, and his account of the trip was the first time her name was revealed to the outside world. He is not known to have met a son of Kim. No Son? In March, South Korea’s National Intelligence Service reported at a meeting of the National Assembly’s Intelligence Committee that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s first child is a son. The spy agency reported that “although there is no specific evidence that the first child is a son, it is certain through information sharing with external intelligence agencies that it is a son.” But a high-ranking official from the South Korean Ministry of Unification met with reporters on May 22nd and said, “It is uncertain whether there is a first child [before Ju Ae] or not.” Kim’s son may not in fact exist, said Ken Gause, director of Center for Naval Analyses. “When Rodman was there, he visited Kim Jong Un in Wonsan … there were a lot of Kim relatives, including Kim Sol Song [his half-sister], but there was no son there,” said Gause. “I’ve also heard that potentially the son, if there is a son, may have some mental disorder or some sort of issue like that, [so] they may have wanted to keep him away … from outsiders being able to see him,” he said. Because Ju Ae is constantly in the spotlight, it seems that she may be Kim’s firstborn, he said. “I have always tended to believe that the son either doesn’t exist … because there was never any talk about, ‘Oh, I also have a son,’ I mean, [they] seem to act as if this were his first child, gushing about Ju Ae and everything,” he said. The family and authorities seems to be “very protective and very mom-like” toward Ju Ae, “which suggests … this wasn’t their second child, this was their first child.” Translated by Leejin J. Chung. Edited by Eugene Whong and Malcolm Foster.

Malaysia’s Mahathir says Russia may take nuclear option

Editor2 years ago06 mins

The world is facing the grim prospect of a nuclear war as the Ukrainian conflict drags on, a former Asian leader has warned. “I don’t think you can make Russia surrender,” said former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad about the ongoing Ukraine war on Friday – the second day of the Future of Asia conference hosted by the Nikkei news group in Tokyo. “They will fight to the end, and in desperation they may resort to the use of nuclear weapons,” said the former statesman who will be 98 in July, adding that not only Ukraine and Russia, but “the whole world will suffer.” Mahathir served as Malaysia’s prime minister from 1981 to 2003 and again from 2018 to 2020. “Nuclear war is the worst kind of war because of the extent of destruction it causes,” he said, reflecting on the end of World War II when two atomic bombs were dropped on Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. A summit of Group of Seven (G7) of the world’s most developed nations was held in Hiroshima last week. “It seems that G7 countries went to Hiroshima trying to persuade the Global South that they should support the West’s efforts in the Ukraine war,” Mahathir said. The Global South is a term generally used for less developed countries in Latin America, Africa, Asia and Oceania, as opposed to more prosperous nations in the Global North including North America, Europe, and Australia, as well as several rich Asian countries like Japan, South Korea and Singapore. “We should not get involved in wars,” the former leader said before criticizing what he called “the mindset of some countries.” “Global North thinks that war is a solution to conflicts between nations,” Mahathir said. “Russia and the West were partners in the war against Germany,” he said, “but immediately after the war the West decided that their new enemy is Russia so they set up NATO.” ‘World government’ The rivalry between the world’s two superpowers China and the U.S. once again was highlighted at the Future of Asia event, in its 28th year this year. Sri Lanka’s President Ranil Wickremesinghe said on Thursday that his country “welcomes the G7’s announcement that they are prepared to build a stable and constructive relationship with China.” Singapore Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong went further adding: “Any attempt either to contain China’s rise or to limit America’s presence in the region will have few takers. Nobody wants to see a new cold war.” Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad (right) at a Q&A session at the Future of Asia conference, May 26, 2023. Credit: RFA/Screenshot from livestream For his part, Mahathir Mohamad urged Asian countries that they “should not take sides to support either the U.S. or China.” “We should support the world that includes the U.S., China and the rest.” “We should free ourselves from the influences by the West both in the economic and political fields,” said the former leader, known for his anti-Western rhetoric. In his opinion, the United Nations as an organization needs to be restructured in order to lead global efforts in dealing with common world problems such as climate change, pandemics and consequences of wars. “We should think of a common approach to deal with world problems, through a kind of world government,” he said. Future of Asia, held by Japan’s Nikkei annually since 1995, is “an international gathering where political, economic, and academic leaders from the Asia-Pacific region offer their opinions frankly and freely on regional issues and the role of Asia in the world.” This year’s theme is ‘Leveraging Asia’s power to confront global challenges.’ Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida delivered a speech Thursday saying Tokyo is “focused on co-creating the future” with its Asian partners. Edited by Mike Firn.

A new big brother for Laos?

Editor2 years ago01 mins

The Friendship Shield 2023 war games brought 200 Chinese troops and 700 Lao soldiers together for three weeks near the Lao capital Vientiane for joint military exercises. The drills between the two Communist states gave troops from impoverished, land-locked Laos firsthand experience using modern Chinese weapons, opening the way for the Southeast Asian country to replace its Soviet-era and Russian military supplies. Neighboring Vietnam, Laos’ biggest traditional ally, is believed to be watching the Sino-Lao relationship warily, while the U.S. is also concerned about China’s expanding military influence.

Court in Myanmar’s Mandalay imprisons 3 monks for funding terrorism

Editor2 years ago02 mins

A court in Myanmar’s central Mandalay region has handed down 22-year sentences to three Buddhist monks accused of supporting anti-junta People’s Defense forces, a local resident told RFA Thursday. Tuesday’s sentences came after the monks from Taw Kyaung Gyi monastery in Patheingyi township were found guilty under Section 50 (j) of the Counter-Terrorism Law, which prohibits the financing of terrorist groups. The local, who didn’t want to be named for safety reasons, said the monks became involved because anti-junta militia often seek refuge in religious buildings, thinking they will be safer. “A monk is not a People’s Defense Force [member]. PDF youths set up camp in that monastery and sent drones over Mandalay city,” he said. “The monks probably encouraged them because locals are involved. Monks host the PDF and collect donations for them.” RFA has not been able to find out the names of the monks but the local said one was the chair of Mandalay’s Madaya township Sangha Maha Nayaka Committee, established by the government in 1980 to oversee the Buddhist clergy. Another local, who also requested anonymity, told RFA the three monks are being held in Mandalay’s Obo Prison following the hearing in Mandalay city’s Aungmyaythazan District Court Some 18,364 people are currently in detention in Myanmar, 6,076 of them serving prison sentences, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners. Translated by RFA Burmese. Edited by Mike Firn.

Category: World