What’s behind the latest corruption trial in Hanoi?

On October  23, Vietnamese prosecutors began a second corruption trial against fugitive businesswoman Nguyen Thi Thanh Nhan. Given her alleged ties to Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, this is no run of the mill fraud and bribery trial. Elite political infighting is clearly at play as the jockeying for power ahead of the 14th Congress intensifies. Nhan, 54, is the former chairwoman of the Advanced International Joint Stock Company (AIC), a trading company established in 1994, which has been involved in the import of any number of things, from corporate electronics, medical equipment, pharmaceuticals, auto parts, alcohol, machine tools, and farm equipment. Nhan who was tried in absentia along with 35 other defendants in December 2022 for a $6.3 million bid rigging and bribery case involving 16 hospitals in Dong Nai province. She allegedly paid some $1.8 million in bribes to local officials to secure inflated contracts,  Nhan was convicted and received a 30-year sentence in January 2023. Also convicted was Tran Dinh Thanh, who had been the provincial party chief at the time for accepting bribes.   The current case is similar to her first conviction, and involves six instances of bid rigging in the sale of medical equipment to state hospitals in the northeastern province of Quang Ninh, as well as bid-rigging at a medical lab in Ho Chi Minh City.  Vietnam’s Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh meets with U.S. President Joe Biden (not pictured) in Hanoi, Sept. 11, 2023. Credit: Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters The fraud involved in this case is only VND50 billion ($2 million). There are 15 other defendants including AIC’s accountant and Nhan’s brother. The latter had fled but returned to Vietnam to face justice.  But what makes the case so sensitive is that the Quang Ninh’s provincial party chief from 2011-2015, was Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh. The former Ministry of Public Security intelligence official was given some of his first management experience as he was being groomed for senior government service.  Nhan is rumored to be Chinh’s former mistress. But even if that is an unfounded rumor, Nhan clearly benefited from her close relationship with the prime minister and other leaders. She had a pattern of cultivating ties with provincial leadership where she sought contracts.   AIC’s webpage also notes that the firm serves as a consultant to the powerful Ministry of National Defense. Nhan as the middlewoman In addition to dealing in medical supplies, she allegedly became Vietnam’s intermediary for weapons procurement from Israel. Israeli defense firms reportedly secured some $1.5 billion in sales in the past decade as the People’s Army sought to modernize and lessen their dependence on Russian arms. Israel has been negotiating some $2 billion in additional sales to Vietnam, including surface-to-air missiles and other weapons systems, with Nhan as the middlewoman. In 2018, Vietnam entered into negotiations with Israel Aerospace Industries about procuring the Ofek-16 spy satellite, which would give Vietnam their first independent overhead imagery.  The deal was worth $550 million, but Nhan allegedly tried to get the Israeli manufacturer to significantly increase the price to secure a larger commission. Israeli officials were angered that the corruption scheme has potentially upended the sale, and at the very least delayed its implementation. An Ofek-16 spy satellite blasts off from the Palmachim air base in central Israel, July 6, 2020. Credit: Israel Ministry of Defense Spokesperson’s Office via AP Nhan has never been charged for anything involving military procurement, which probably reflects a fear of shedding light on the sensitive issue of the military’s procurement practices. Prosecutors have focused on her medical industry dealings, much the way that investigators may be focusing on tycoon Nguyen Thi Phuong Thao’s other business dealings, rather than her conglomerate SOVICO, which has an extensive history of brokering weapons imports from Russia. Madame Nhan has been a fugitive since the Ministry of Public Security issued a warrant for her arrest in April 2022.  Her December 2022 trial came as CPV General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong’s “Blazing Furnace” campaign brought down two deputy prime ministers, Politburo-member Pham Binh Minh and Vu Duc Dam, and two months later President and Politburo member Nguyen Xuan Phuc. At the time, Prime Minister Chinh appeared to be the next target. Chinh is reported to have gone through a self-criticism session and has held onto his job. But arguably what really saved him was not his innocence, but the lack of an obvious replacement. None of the new deputy prime ministers are on the Politburo and there’s an overall dearth of economic management experience on the top decision-making body.  Nhan is reportedly hiding in Germany, which rejected a formal extradition request from Vietnam. Indeed, Berlin issued a very stern warning to Hanoi to not repeat the abduction of the former executive of the state-owned PetroVietnam Construction, Trinh Xuan Thanh, in 2017. After his illegal rendition, allegedly through Slovakia, Thanh was convicted of embezzlement and sentenced to life in prison; a trial that also saw Politburo member and former chief of PetroVietnam, Dinh La Thang, sentenced to 13 years. Germany expelled two Vietnamese diplomats and has convicted two people for the abduction, but wants to deter a similar operation. New targets Nhan’s trial could be another attempt to weaken the prime minister as jockeying for leadership positions heats up ahead of the Communist Party of Vietnam’s 14th Congress expected to be held in January 2026.  RFA’s Vietnamese Service has reported that the vice chairman of the Quang Ninh People’s Committee and two former vice chairmen have been investigated and officially reprimanded for their management shortcomings and oversight of the AIC deal. It’s just more unwanted pressure on the Prime Minister. Vietnamese Deputy Prime Minister Vu Duc Dam was one of the high-ranking officials recently removed from their positions. Credit: Hoang Dinh Nam/AFP file photo The Politburo continues to have just 17 members, as both the 7th and 8th Central Committee Plenums in May and October, respectively, failed to garner sufficient consensus to elect new members following the ouster of Minh and Phuc. …

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Pakistani police crack down on Uyghurs at risk for deportation

Pakistani authorities began conducting unexpected house raids on the homes of Uyghurs living in Rawalpindi just before a government order to expel all illegal migrants who had not left the country by the start of November took effect, according to Uyghurs involved in the matter.  Officials issued a warning in early October, stating that migrants without a legal residence permit in Pakistan had to leave by Nov. 1 or face deportation. The measure affects nearly 20 Uyghur families — or about 100 individuals — living in Rawalpindi, the fourth most populous city in Pakistan.  Pakistani officials issued the expulsion order after dozens of people were killed in two suicide bombings in late September. Though they said that most such bombings this year were conducted by Afghan nationals, they decided to expel all migrants without a valid residence permit – including 1.73 million Afghan refugees – if they didn’t leave on their own. Most of the affected Uyghurs are descendants of individuals who migrated decades ago from Xinjiang to Afghanistan and later to Pakistan. They lack Afghan or Chinese passports and Pakistani residence permits.  The Uyghurs, who have been living in a state of uncertainty in Pakistan for the past month, said authorities began sudden house raids at midnight on Oct. 31.  “They are raiding homes at midnight or at 1 or 2 o’clock,” said a Uyghur man named Turghunjan who is married and has two daughters and a son. “The landlords are also telling us to leave, but we will have nowhere to sleep.”  Landlords who rent homes to the Uyghurs reported some of them to the authorities, and on Nov. 1, a man named Amanullah was detained during a house search by police as part of the effort to investigate illegal migrants, the Uyghurs said. Police released Amanullah on bail five hours later.   It remains unclear if authorities will deport the Uyghur families. Stopped by police Turghunjan, a relative of Amanullah, said he was abruptly stopped by police on his way home from work on the evening of Oct. 31, during which the officers checked his identity and warned him of a potential search the following day. “While I was on my way home, the police stopped me and asked me questions,” he said. “They slapped me on the face three or four times and said they would search me after Nov. 1.”   “We are not Afghan, and if they deport us, where will we go?” he asked. RFA could not reach police in Rawalpindi for comment. The Uyghur families are concerned that their safety will be at risk under current Taliban control if Pakistani authorities deport them to Afghanistan. They also fear being forced back to China, where Uyghurs in the far-western Xinjiang region face repression and are subjected to severe rights abuses. “They are not leaving their homes, [and] the landlords are reporting them to the police,” said  Omer Khan, founder of the Pakistan-based Omer Uyghur Trust, who has been assisting the families. Though police have threatened some Uyghurs over the past days, they have not yet arrested or deported anyone, he said. The Uyghurs sought help from the U.N. refugee agency’s office in Pakistan for years without success. But this October, the agency collected their names, addresses, and details about their families, following an early October report about their plight by Radio Free Asia.  At the time, the agency also said it was investigating the situation of the Uyghur families facing deportation if they failed to comply with the government order expelling all illegal migrants.  Khan said he received a reassuring call from a representative of the U.N. refugee agency,  officially the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, or UNHCR, on Nov. 2 while the Uyghurs faced harassment by police. “We didn’t ask them to come and take us,” he said. “We just need a response and decision from the U.N. about refugee status.” Neither the U.N.’s refugee agency in Geneva, Switzerland, nor its office in Pakistan responded to inquiries from RFA. Translated by RFA Uyghur. Edited by Roseanne Gerin and Malcolm Foster.

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Myanmar’s navy arrests over 200 Rohingya fleeing Rakhine

Junta navy officials have arrested 226 Rohingya fleeing Myanmar by boat since Oct. 27, communities in western Myanmar told Radio Free Asia. They were attempting to escape to Malaysia and Thailand.  On Thursday, the navy apprehended two boats carrying 167 Rohingya off the coast of Ayeyarwady region, a source close to the region’s police force said Friday. “They were caught when they left to go to Thailand. They were caught at sea,” he told RFA, asking to remain anonymous for fear of reprisals. “There were 80 men and 87 women on the boat.” Ten Myanmar crew members are also being prosecuted, he added.  The group of 167 Rohingya originated from Rakhine state. They traveled in boats called Thuta Kyaw and Zeya Aung and were sailing northwest from Hainggyikyun in Ayeyarwady region, some pro-army channels on the messaging app Telegram reported. Junta navy warship 553 caught the boats while patrolling the area. Navy officials took the arrested Rohingya to an unknown location from Hainggyikyun police station, said a local close to the junta council administration. Their whereabouts is still unknown.  Similarly, officials arrested nine men and 12 women on Monday after the group entered Rakhine state from Bangladesh’s refugee camps. They intended to go to Malaysia, but were arrested in the sea near Rathedaung township’s Done Paik village.  On Oct. 27, junta officials arrested 38 Rohingya enroute to Malaysia. The boat was caught near Ah Ngu Maw village in Rakhine’s Rathedaung township. The following day, the group was taken to Sittwe police station to be prosecuted, according to a press release from the junta-controlled Rakhine Daily Telegram page.  In relation to the three cases, police arrested six more people, including boat owners, crew members and a broker. Rohingya regularly leave by boat for neighboring countries because it is more difficult for them to survive in Rakhine state, one Rohingya refugee from Sittwe told RFA. “This leaving is normal and there is no way to stop it. People are going in droves, although they know the way is deadly,” he said, asking to remain anonymous. “About half of those who left have arrived. But there is absolutely no way to stop it. Because it’s difficult to live here – job scarcity and unemployment, no freedom. And people are leaving because the resentment is growing day by day.” They are trying to leave by paying brokers up to 10 million kyats (US$4,762) per person, he added. Rohingya are often arrested by the Myanmar navy while leaving on boats. RFA contacted Ayeyarwady region’s junta council spokesman, Maung Maung Than for comment on the arrested Rohingya, but did not receive a reply by the time of publication.  Translated by RFA Burmese. Edited by Mike Firn.

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Candlelight Party officials vote for alliance with Khmer Will Party

Top officials from the opposition Candlelight Party voted on Tuesday to align with the smaller Khmer Will Party as it prepares for upcoming district and Senate elections. The move will allow the Candlelight Party – which has been stymied in its efforts to regain official status – to register candidates under the Khmer Will Party name in next year’s district elections. The Khmer Will Party did not appear on the ballot in the July general elections, but it maintains a recognized registration status with the Ministry of Interior. “The Candlelight Party has spent time and money and paved obstacles,” said Phal Sithon, a senior Khmer Will Party official. “We owe it gratitude.” After the former main opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party was dissolved by the Supreme Court in 2017, the Candlelight Party began organizing and gathering support. Many of its leaders were once part of the CNRP. But in May, the National Election Committee ruled that the Candlelight Party couldn’t compete in July’s parliamentary election because it did not have the original registration form issued by the Interior Ministry.  With no real opposition, the ruling Cambodian People’s Party, or CPP, swept to victory. The president of the Khmer Will Party is Kong Monika, a former senior member of the Candlelight Party. His father, Kong Korm, was once a senior adviser to the Candlelight Party. Phal Sithon said the Khmer Will Party will allow the Candlelight Party to register its candidates under its party’s name in next year’s district elections. However, he wouldn’t specify how the two parties would choose which of their candidates would appear on ballots.  “We can’t say the percentage but they have been working on their candidates so we must respect that,” he said. Checks and balances The Candlelight Party announced earlier this month its intention to form an alliance with several minor parties, including the Khmer Will Party. The alliance will also look to field candidates in the 2027 commune elections and the 2028 general election.  Last week, Candlelight Party Vice President Rong Chhun said it may also form an alliance with the newly formed National Power Party. Legal scholar Vorn Chanlot on Tuesday told RFA that the Khmer Will Party most resembles the Candlelight Party compared to the other two parties in the alliance – the Grassroots Democratic Party and the Cambodia Reform Party.  “People need an opposition party that has a will and wisdom for the sake of social benefit for checks and balances over the government,” he said. Also last week, the ruling CPP unveiled its own alliance with 27 minor parties. Speaking at the CPP’s headquarters, Hun Sen alleged that an unnamed group “has plans to topple the government and destroy peace.” The longtime leader, who stepped down as prime minister in August but remains the CPP’s president, was likely referring to Candlelight’s recent efforts to form ties with other parties. “I would like to affirm that we must collectively destroy this political extremist group. I have already directed a plan to destroy this political organization,” Hun Sen said, adding that he succeeded in neutralizing the remnants of the Khmer Rouge in the 1990s. Translated by Yun Samean. Edited by Matt Reed and Malcolm Foster.

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Manila rejects Beijing’s account of sea encounter

Manila for the second time this month has dismissed China’s version of a military encounter near the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea. On Monday the Chinese military said it had monitored and warned off a Philippine warship that it accused of “trespassing” into the waters around the Scarborough Shoal. Senior Col. Tian Junli, the spokesperson for China’s Southern Theater Command, said in a statement that the Philippine frigate “intruded into the waters adjacent to China’s Huangyan Dao without the approval of the Chinese government,” referring to the shoal by its Chinese name. He said the naval and air forces of the Command “tracked, monitored, warned, and restricted the Philippine military vessel according to law.” On Tuesday, Philippine authorities responded with their own version of the incident. National Security Adviser Eduardo M. Año said the Navy’s BRP Conrado Yap (PS-39) “conducted routine patrol operations in the general vicinity of Bajo de Masinloc (Scarborough Shoal) without any untoward incident.” “China is again over hyping this incident and creating unnecessary tensions between our two nations,” Año said. This is the second time in three weeks that China claimed that Manila “violated China’s sovereignty over the reef” and that Chinese law enforcement forces drove Philippine ships away. Both times, the Philippines dismissed China’s claims and insisted that under international law, the Philippines had every right to patrol the area. Test of U.S. commitment “Such incidents will re-occur with increased frequency,” said Carlyle Thayer, a veteran political analyst based in Canberra, Australia. China seized Scarborough Shoal after a standoff with the Philippines in 2012 and has maintained control over it since. Manila brought Beijing to an international tribunal over its claims in the South China Sea, including of the islands, and won but China has refused to accept the 2016 ruling. “China considers Philippine vessels’ activities near the shoal a violation of China’s sovereignty and will react strongly every time,” said Thayer, adding “Beijing doesn’t want to be seen as weak.” This undated photo provided on Sept. 26, 2023, by the Philippine Coast Guard shows the anchor used to hold the floating barrier which was removed by a coast guard diver, in the Scarborough Shoal. Credit: Philippine Coast Guard via AP Another South China Sea scholar, Hoang Viet from the Ho Chi Minh City University of Law, said that the recent rapprochement between the Philippines and the United States under current Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has also contributed to China’s ramped up response. In February, Manila granted the U.S. access to four more military bases in the country. “China wants to warn those countries which, in its opinion, are seeking to move closer to the U.S.,” Viet said. “With such incidents, Beijing also wants to test Washington’s commitment in the region, especially as the U.S. is being drawn into so many global conflicts and crises,” the analyst said.  The U.S. has repeatedly stated that Article IV of the 1951 U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty extends to armed attacks on Philippine armed forces, public vessels, and aircraft – including those of its Coast Guard – anywhere in the South China Sea. For its part, Manila has “embarked on a tactic of assertive transparency,” as noted by Ray Powell from Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation. That means incidents in disputed waters are being reported in a timely and transparent manner.  In late September, the Philippines said China had installed a 300-meter (984-foot) floating barrier to block Philippine fishermen from accessing the waters around the shoal. The Philippine coast guard carried out a “special operation” to cut the barrier and remove its anchor. Jason Gutierrez in Manila contributed to this article. Edited by Mike Firn and Taejun Kang.

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Myanmar junta shutters independent news outlet in Rakhine state

Myanmar junta troops raided and shuttered an independent news outlet in Rakhine state on Sunday, arresting one reporter and a guard, while the rest of the staff went into hiding, relatives of the employees said. Soldiers arrested Htet Aung, the Sittwe-based reporter for Development Media Group, or DMG, and night watchman Soe Win Aung, and no one has had any contact with them yet, they said. DMG was established in 2012 along the Thailand-Myanmar border, but later moved its operations to Rakhine’s capital Sittwe. The news outlet covers armed conflict and human rights violations in the western state that borders Bangladesh. When some family members went to the Sittwe police station where the two were detained, police did not allow them to meet, said Ma Aye Yi, mother of Htet Aung. “When I went there to take lunch [to my son], they told me that [he] had been taken to the military security affairs office for interrogation,” she said.  Silencing news outlets The ruling military junta, which seized power in a February 2021 coup, has cracked down on independent media outlets in Myanmar to silence them from reporting about the coup, its violent aftermath, and armed conflict.  In 2021, the junta shut down five media outlets that provided independent coverage of the protests against military rule. This year, the regime threatened legal action against Democratic Voice of Burma TV and Mizzima TV, demanding the shuttered independent news broadcasters pay thousands of dollars in transmission fees, VOA reported in July. Soldiers arrested Htet Aung while he was taking news photos at the Wingabar open field in Rakhine’s capital city. Sometime later, about 20 junta troops with police raided DMG’s office and arrested the night watchman. Development Media Group reporter Htet Aung was arrested by Myanmar junta forces in Sittwe, capital of western Myanmar’s Rakhine state, Oct. 29, 2023. Credit: Htet Aung/Facebook The soldiers and police also confiscated cameras, computers and office accessories before sealing the building, DMG news agency officials said. It was a violent suppression of the independent news media, one news agency official said. “We condemn the arresting of journalists and office staff and raiding of the office,” the person said. “It is an act of terrorism. No matter how they suppress us, we will report the truth from the ground as much as we can.” Not the first time Meanwhile, the families of the other workers who fled to safety said they don’t know about their whereabouts.    RFA’s calls to the state attorney general, who is the junta’s spokesman for Rakhine state, went unanswered. The State Administration Council, as the junta regime is known, has not yet issued a statement about the raid. This isn’t the first time the military has targeted DMG. In 2019, the military and the military-controlled Home Affairs Ministry under the previous civilian-led government filed a criminal case against DMG editor-in-chief Aung Min Oo for allegedly violating Section 17(2) of the country’s Unlawful Associations Act. The military filed defamation lawsuits under Section 66(d) of the Telecommunications Law against other DMG reporters in 2021. Translated by Htin Aung Kyaw for RFA Burmese. Edited by Roseanne Gerin and Malcolm Foster.

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China urges ‘fair’ investigation into Baltic pipeline damage

China has said it will stand “ready to provide necessary assistance” to the investigation into Finland’s claims a Hong Kong vessel may have damaged a natural gas pipeline. Finnish police said on Tuesday the Balticconnector pipeline between Finland and Estonia was likely damaged by an anchor as “on the seabed, a 1.5 to 4 meter-wide dragging trail is seen to lead to the point of damage in the gas pipeline.” The investigators said they found the anchor just a few meters from the gas pipeline damage point. They said the anchor may have belonged to the Chinese container vessel Newnew Polar Bear which was sailing through the area at around 1:20 a.m. local time on Oct. 8, 2023 when the pipeline was reported damaged. The police focused their suspicion on the ship as until now, they “could not visually confirm that both front anchors of the vessel were in their place.”  Newnew Polar Bear is a Chinese-owned and Hong Kong-registered commercial ship.   The vessel “was contacted several times, but they were not willing to cooperate,” they said, adding that help is needed from the Chinese authorities for the investigation to continue. A graphic obtained by Reuters on October 13, 2023, shows where the Balticconnector pipeline between Finland and Estonia was damaged on October 8, by an unknown reason. Credit: NORSAR/Handout via Reuters In Beijing, a Foreign Ministry spokesperson said China maintains “unimpeded communication with parties including Finland” over the incident, which is still under investigation, and “stands ready to provide necessary assistance in accordance with international law.” Mao Ning told reporters on Wednesday that the Chinese government hopes “relevant parties will follow the principles of being objective, fair, just and professional and find out what happened soon.” Earlier this week, Mao said the Chinese vessel was “sailing through relevant waters normally when the incident occurred. Due to the rather bad conditions at sea, it didn’t detect anything abnormal.”  Finland’s National Bureau of Investigation has published a photo of the broken anchor that investigators retrieved from the seabed.  The next step would be to confirm that it came from the Chinese container vessel and determine if the damage was an accident or intentional, said Carl Schuster, a retired U.S. Navy captain turned maritime analyst. “If evidence of the Newnew Polar Bear’s involvement surfaces, then the captain will try to claim it was an accident but that is not likely unless the evidence is conclusive,” Schuster told RFA. Cable cutting The Estonian government has said it is investigating two incidents that might also be linked to the Newnew Polar Bear, in which a telecoms cable connecting Finland and Estonia and another between Sweden and Estonia, were damaged. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas was quoted in the domestic media as saying that there are reasons to believe that the three incidents are related, but “it is too early to reveal sensitive information.” Some observers recall that Chinese ships were accused of damaging communications cables before. In April, Taiwan’s National Communications Commission blamed two Chinese ships for cutting two undersea internet cables connecting Taiwan island and the outlying islands of Matsu, leading to 50 days of no, or very limited internet access, there. The same cables have been damaged 27 times since 2017 by Chinese sand dredging and fishing boats, some cut by ships’ anchors, Taiwanese authorities said. RFA analyzed automatic identification system data provided by ship-tracking website MarineTraffic and found that at around 1:00 a.m. on Oct. 8, the Newnew Polar Bear was approaching the site of the Balticconnector pipeline.  During the course of one hour or so, the Newnew Polar Bear slowed down to under 11 knots before picking up again, but did not stop.  Besides the Chinese ship, a Russian flag bearer – the nuclear-powered cargo ship Sevmorput – was also seen at the scene, sailing at a higher speed. Norwegian seismology institute NORSAR reported blast-like waves near the pipeline at the time. What does Russia say? NewNew Polar Bear was renamed and registered in Hong Kong in June. Immediately prior to this, the ship sailed under the name Baltic Fulmar flying the Cypriot flag. Newnew Polar Bear and four other ships owned by China’s Hainan Yangpu Newnew Shipping Co. began transporting cargo between Russia and China using the Northern Sea Route along Russia’s Arctic coast in July. The route was previously not operational because of the ice. The Newnew Polar Bear made a port call in Baltiysk, Russia, on Oct. 6. Credit: Anton Alikhanov’s Telegram Russian state nuclear corporation Rosatom is believed to assist the Chinese shipping line with nuclear-powered icebreakers, reducing the transit time between Russia’s St Petersburg and China’s Shanghai to less than a month, compared to 45-50 days if using the route through the Suez Canal. Sevmorput is part of the Rosatom-owned nuclear icebreaker fleet, the only such fleet in the world. The Northern Sea Route is one of the strategic priorities of cooperation between the Russians and the Chinese, and Newnew Polar Bear reflects this close collaboration.  But Russian netizens have posted photos of the vessel flying the Russian flag at port calls, such as on Oct. 6 in Baltiysk, Kaliningrad’s region. This left watchers puzzled. “It is not legal under international law for the ship to fly a Russian flag unless its registration was changed to Russia. There is no evidence it has changed its registration,” said maritime analyst Carl Schuster.  “A commercial vessel must fly the flag of its country of registration although it may have a logo of its country of ownership painted on its superstructure,” he added, So far, as the suspicion is not directed at Russia, Russian official channels have yet to comment on the case.  Yet on social media platforms, Russian analysts and observers have been talking about what they call “the West attempting to block traffic from China to Russia and Europe.” “Perhaps the West understands that this traffic can increase massively in the near future – both from the Baltic and along the Northern Sea Route,” one…

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US officials: China’s economic woes may slow military rise

China’s military may be more aggressive than ever before, but economic woes could force some tough spending decisions that slow its continued rise, two U.S. defense officials said Monday. Speaking at the Atlantic Council about the Pentagon’s latest China Military Power Report, an annual evaluation of Beijing’s military power mandated by Congress, the officials said China’s economic troubles coincided with higher costs of military modernization.  “They are getting into areas that are more expensive and more technologically complex,” said Michael Chase, the deputy assistant secretary of defense for China, Taiwan and Mongolia. Chase said Beijing relied more on the People’s Liberation Army “as an instrument of advancing his foreign policy objectives” than ever before, and that an economic slowdown would not likely change that. But U.S. officials, he said, were watching “whether a slowing economy imposes some trade offs between different projects that are important components of PLA modernization.” He listed the building of aircraft carriers, nuclear weapons and foreign bases as big-ticket items. “We’re probably beginning to see some of that evidence, and I think we’ll see more of it over time,” he said. “They’re becoming increasingly technologically sophisticated and, therefore, increasingly pricey.” Nuclear threat Released last week, the China Military Power Report says Beijing last year continued to build its nuclear weapons arsenal and may even be considering building missiles capable of reaching the United States. It also reiterated last year’s report that said China is the U.S. military’s “top pacing challenge” and the “the only competitor with the intent and increasingly the capability to reshape the international order.” Ely Ratner, the assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security, told the Atlantic Council on Monday that despite that assessment, he agreed that China’s economic issues had thrown a spanner in the works – both for the military and for its regular diplomacy.  “We may be seeing some of those trade-offs already,” Ratner said. “We have seen for instance, over the last couple of years, Belt and Road investments by [China] dropping dramatically around the world.” The Belt and Road Initiative was “one of the top priorities for the leadership in Beijing” when it was launched 10 years ago, he said, but “because of their economic slowdown, you see them less able and less willing to be supporting those kinds of investments overseas.” “So even things that are high priorities are getting cut in the face of this economic slowdown, and the PLA will be no different over time.”

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Will Hong Kong’s star shine again?

A typical Friday evening in Mong Kok district comes to a hush before midnight. It is the new normal for a district once fused with the buzz and raw energy that was the essence of Hong Kong.  Yet, it is the old vibe that Hong Kong officials are aspiring to recover. In mid-September, the government launched “Night Vibes Hong Kong,” involving night markets, food stalls, movie screenings and live music events over weekends. Over the past 12 months, it has rolled out campaigns including a six-month program to bring tourists back and also gone on global roadshows to win back investors.  The effectiveness of the efforts remains elusive, despite Chief Executive John Lee’s vow to a year ago in his maiden policy speech to go all out to draw back talent and businesses to a city battered by a stringent zero-COVID policy and Beijing’s hardened grip. Tell the world the good stories of Hong Kong was the mantra, he quipped. As Lee prepares to make his second policy address this week, analysts say the good stories are few, and the issues that have eroded Hong Kong’s unique competitiveness continue to chip away. The city’s international financial center and economic hub positions are crumbling under the weight of Beijing’s tightened grip of the special administrative region where the “one country, two systems” principle is taking a new form under Chinese President Xi Jinping. “Hong Kong’s major indicators – freedom, rule of law, international financial center status, international standards of practices, property market, stock market, government’s financial reserves – are all on the decline, and it is a Hong Kong government problem,” points out Lew Mon-hung, a businessman and former Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference committee member. ‘Promoting Marxism’ To be exact, it’s a problem stemming from Beijing, Lew says, because Hong Kong’s progress and fate are intricately tied to China’s continuous reforms as they have been the past four decades.  That path, however, has been stymied by the shift in political climate in the mainland, and the Chinese National People’s Congress’s passing of the National Security Law in June 2020 – bypassing Hong Kong’s legislature – to quell months of anti-government protests. “In China now, they are promoting Marxism – having gotten into the philosophy of struggle, wolf warrior diplomacy,” which Lew says comes at the expense of economic and thought regressions. People walk through an outdoor market in Hong Kong’s Mong Kok area on Aug. 20, 2022. Credit: Bertha Wang/AFP These weighed on the “one country, two systems,” China’s constitutional principle to govern Hong Kong under a mini-constitution called the Basic Law, where the city is allowed freedom of assembly and speech, an independent judiciary and some democratic rights – except in the areas of diplomacy and defense.  “Beijing reckons that Hong Kong only needs to play an economic role after its return to Chinese rule,” says Hong Kong current affairs commentator Johnny Lau Yui-siu.  “But Hong Kong people’s view of the world is different from mainland China’s political awareness and consciousness. And Beijing wants Hong Kong to align.”  Hong Kongers, he says, are outward-looking, used to international practices, free flow of information and speech, unlike their Chinese counterparts who are restricted by the boundaries that the Chinese Communist Party had set.  As China stalls in its convergence towards international standards, Hong Kong became the by-product of that stagnation, Lau says. The numbers add up The numbers tell the same story. China’s exports fell 14.3% and 8.8% in July and August respectively, while Hong Kong’s fell 9.1% and 3.7%. The benchmark stock index has lost about 12% since the beginning of 2023 and Hong Kong’s property prices are forecast to fall 5% for the year, according to a commercial real estate services firm Cushman & Wakefield.  The uncertainties that keep foreign investors guessing about where the political winds blow in China also reverberate in Hong Kong. China’s crackdown on industries such as the technology sector, as well as its more recent position to let an indebted property industry go into a free fall, have done little to assure investors. A pedestrian passes the Hong Kong Stock Exchange electronic screen in Hong Kong on July 21, 2023. Credit: Louise Delmotte/AP The latest annual survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai published in September showed that the percentage of U.S. firms optimistic about their outlook on China over the next five years slid to 52%, the lowest level since the annual report was introduced in 1999. In Hong Kong, a member sentiment survey by the AmCham in Hong Kong released in March found that American businesses’ three biggest challenges are U.S.-China tensions, a weakening global economy and the overseas perception of Hong Kong, a factor that was previously absent. “If the HKSAR Govt can reassure international investors that the rule of law will prevail, and the NSL will not put their staff in jeopardy, it will go a long way.  But it is at the moment delivering neither,” says Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute at SOAS University of London. Rebuilding reputation The chamber has urged Hong Kong chief Lee to provide “straightforward interpretations and applications” of the law in his upcoming policy speech. In its written submission in September to the public consultation for the policy address, the chamber wants Lee to reassure businesses that the law will be applied narrowly and be consistent with the principles of an independent judiciary. The ramifications of the national security law, which criminalizes any act of secession, subversion, terrorism and collusion with foreign or external forces, have never ceased since it was implemented. How the Hong Kong government has used the law to change the political and civic institutions in the city has alarmed a wide spectrum of the society. Opposition parties and media outlets were shuttered, while pro-democratic figures have either been arrested or have fled the city. An earlier post-COVID reopening by longtime rival Singapore didn’t help. Toeing Beijing’s stringent zero-COVID policy was a death knell for…

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Yangon residents skip meals amid soaring rice and cooking oil prices

Residents in Myanmar’s largest city of Yangon are having to eat less food because rice and cooking oil prices have more than doubled – and sometimes tripled – since the junta came to power in the February 2021 coup, they told Radio Free Asia. The economy of Myanmar has suffered under the junta with unemployment rising sharply and price increases for nearly all commodities. Residents report that their wages have not increased amid rampant inflation. Aye Aye Thin, the matriarch of her family, told RFA Burmese that the adults are skipping meals so that the children can have their fill. “Before 2021, I could cook seven tins of rice, and my family was well fed,” she said. “After the coup, I can cook only four tins of rice. Our income is not enough because rice and cooking oil prices are skyrocketing.” She said that everyone in the house eats a morning meal, but the adults skip the afternoon meal because there is nothing left. “We have to go to bed hungry,” Aye Aye Thin said. “I haven’t seen good quality rice and cooking oil for a long time.”  Another resident, Thin Zar, said that she skips meals so that she can feed her son and husband. “It is not enough to buy rice with 1,000 or 2,000 kyats (48 U.S. cents to $1). Only when I buy 2,500 kyats ($1.20) worth of rice, it is just enough for my husband and son,” she said. “Mostly, I’m starving. The only way we’re all well fed is if there is charity.”   War and price controls There are several reasons for the surging rice prices, including unrealistic price controls, transport restrictions and fighting that has destroyed farms and farmland. Farmers told RFA that since junta troops burned houses and barns in Shwebo, Kanbalu Khin-U, Ye-U and Taze townships, they can no longer grow as much rice as they could before. There are several Destruction of rice fields and homes, or forcing people to flee in rice-producing upper Myanmar, price control by the junta authorities and transport restrictions are the reasons for higher rice prices in Myanmar. “Wages are not increasing, it’s only the price of goods that keeps going up,” Khin Maung Win, who used to own an apartment in Yangon, now lives as a tenant. Credit: RFA Khin Maung Win, who used to own an apartment in Yangon, now lives as a tenant. He told RFA that over the last two or three years, prices have risen but wages have not. Rice prices have tripled, and the price of lower quality rice, which has red seeds mixed in, isn’t that much lower, he said. Cooking oil  The price of cooking oil has also jumped. Customers who once were able to afford sunflower oil or peanut oil now have to line up to buy cheaper palm oil because prices have been rising and there is a cooking oil shortage, Ma Soe, a grocery store owner, told RFA. “In a period of three years, the [cooking oil] prices have doubled or tripled, so they can’t afford sunflower oil or peanut oil anymore,” he said. “People of all walks of life can only afford palm oil. But the stores can’t get enough.” A rice shop in Yangon is seen on Oct. 4, 2023. The price of even low-grade rice has doubled. Credit: RFA On Sept. 9, Myanmar junta chief Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing said that action has been taken against those who are speculating on commodity prices. However, Kyi Tha, an economic analyst, said that such action can be ruinous for economic growth. “They arrest and imprison rice and oil merchants. They extort them. They told the merchants that they had to sell at set prices,” he said. “You can’t create an economic boom by orders and authority.” According to the analysis of Trading Economics, which provides data for the economic indicators of 196 countries, Myanmar’s unemployment rate was only 0.7 percent in 2019, and now it has reached 2.2 percent in 2023.  In a list of the 25 poorest countries in the world 2023, published by the International Monetary Fund, Myanmar is ranked 24, the poorest country in Southeast Asia. Translated by Htin Aung Kyaw. Edited by Eugene Whong and Malcolm Foster.

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