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Category: South Asia

Pneumonia, bird flu, other outbreaks prompt concerns of new contagion in Asia

Editor013 mins

Hospitals in China are being inundated with respiratory infections, particularly affecting children.  While not widespread internationally, yet, there are reports of similar outbreaks as far as Ireland. But it’s not the only public health scare at the moment.  COVID-19 cases are spiking again, prompting fears of a new variant emerging as China’s public health authorities, never known for their candor, have not revealed much about the wave of recent infections. Meanwhile, avian influenza (H5N1) has been spreading in 2022-2023, with the latest outbreak reported in Japan.   And Indian public health officials in September worked to contain an outbreak of the deadly Nipah virus, which infected many but fortunately only caused two deaths. Is the world ready for another virus transmitted from animals to humans that spreads rapidly? Has the world learned sufficient lessons from the last pandemic and is China now more transparent? The answers to these questions are far from a resounding “yes.” Now is the time for public health officials to start putting in place more efficient information sharing, collaborative data analysis, and response plans so nations are not caught unaware like they were in 2019 with COVID-19. Human deaths from bird flu China said the surge in respiratory infections appears to be caused by a mix of bacteria and viruses. They include seasonal influenza and the bacteria-caused mycoplasma pneumoniae that in turn causes respiratory tract infections, Chinese health authorities said. No novel coronavirus has been detected, and no deaths have been reported.  As for H5N1, also called bird flu and avian influenza, several Asian and Southeast Asian countries reported outbreaks in 2023. Children, many of whom apparently contracted respiratory illnesses since mid-October, receive a drip at a hospital in Beijing, Nov. 23, 2023. (Jade Gao/AFP) In Indonesia, a single H5N1outbreak led to 4,400 ducks being infected in Kalimantan alone, although there were no known cases of human transmission.  In Cambodia, two people died from H5N1, the first reported human transmissions since 2014. Authorities announced a large H5N1 outbreak in poultry flock in November near the Vietnamese border. Still, no human transmissions were reported, nor was there evidence of bird flu spreading to Vietnam. Chinese officials also reported outbreaks of H5N1 in July. There were six human transmissions of another bird flu variant, H5N6, in 2023 in China. The most recent human transmission, in Chongqing, China, in September, caused one death.  China has reported 88 cases of human transmission of H5N6 since 2014, with a fatality rate of 52%.  Nipah rears its head The most recent outbreak in Kerala, India, of Nipah, a zoonotic virus, is thought to have been transmitted to humans from fruit bats. A zoonotic virus can spread from animals to people, and Nipah has a human fatality rate of between 40% and 75%. The virus is transmitted from excrement, saliva or urine that infects fruit, which in turn enters the human food chain, either directly or indirectly, through pigs. Human-to-human transmission is caused by respiratory droplets and bodily fluids. There is no approved vaccine, though an mRNA vaccine is being tested.  To date, the rate of human-to-human transmission – (the R-Value – remember that?) – has been low. In epidemiology, the R-value is the reproductive ratio of a virus – that is, the number of people one person carrying the virus can infect. But the one thing that concerns public health officials is the long incubation period of the Nipah virus, meaning that people can infect a large number of people before they know they themselves are infected. Nipah’s symptoms are not unique – fever, cough, headache and body pains in the early stages, with delirium beginning in the final stages.  Indian flying foxes or fruit bats, which transmit the Nipah virus to humans, roost in a tree near the city of Thottilpalam, in the southern state of Kerala, India, Sept. 30, 2023. (Sreekanth Sivadasn/Reuters) The Nipah virus was detected in Malaysia and Singapore in September 1998. That outbreak infected 265 people, causing 105 deaths. Back then, pigs were the host, and authorities responded with a mass cull. There have been no outbreaks in either country since 1999. In India, though, the September outbreak is the sixth one since 2001. And neighboring Bangladesh, WHO says has seen 11 separate outbreaks of Nipah from 2001-2011, which have led to the deaths of 237 people of 335 infected (71%).  The Philippines had an outbreak in 2014 that was transmitted through horse meat. Governments in Southeast Asia have been conducting testing.  In the Philippines, schools canceled classes briefly in Cagayan d’Oro amid fears of an outbreak. Authorities in Indonesia’s Bali stepped up monitoring at the airport.  There were no signs of the disease in either country,  but public health officials are clearly jumpy. Can economies take another hit? Were sufficient lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic learned and uniformly embraced to be able to deal with a large outbreak of one of these infections is the first concern. One lesson learned was that being transparent led to punishments, and the next time around countries may not be so forthcoming.  For instance, countries were often punished with travel bans and other scrutiny for being open about the influx of new variants. They found there was a short-term political and economic incentive in holding back such information, although that’s exactly what should not be done. Doctors and nurses put on protective equipment before entering a quarantine facility for COVID-19 patients in Tangerang, Banten province, Indonesia, June 22, 2020. (Adek Berry/AFP) Second, after a much-needed lull, there is always a concern about complacency and societal fatigue.  Could governments impose new rounds of public health lockdowns and quarantines, even at a local level, when China itself has abandoned its draconian micro-quarantining policy? Third, the national responses were inconsistent. For example, wealthy Singapore imposed very severe lockdowns, while much poorer Indonesia was highly reluctant to impose any for fear of slowing the economy.  Additionally, governments across tourism-dependent Southeast Asia would have to decide whether the advantages of keeping borders open outweigh the risks…

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Kissinger had a consequential, controversial impact across Asia

Editor09 mins

Henry Kissinger, who died on Nov. 30 at the age of 100, was an influential diplomat and strategist who wielded major influence on U.S. foreign policy for more than five decades. President Nixon’s National Security Adviser Henry A. Kissinger and Le Duc Tho, the chief North Vietnamese negotiator at the Paris peace talks, speak to the media in Paris, June 13, 1973. (Michel Lipchitz/AP) Credited for arms negotiations with the Soviet Union and shuttle diplomacy in pursuit of Middle East peace, Kissinger had a great impact on events across Asia.  Presidential advisor Henry Kissinger tells newsmen at the “Western White House” in San Clemente, Calif., that the Cambodia issue is being discussed with Chinese envoy Huang Chen, July 6, 1973. (AP) He was a central figure in President Richard Nixon’s early 1970s U.S. diplomatic opening with China and won the Nobel Peace Prize for negotiating the end of the Vietnam War. President Richard Nixon and Ambassador Agha Hilaly of Pakistan huddle over a newspaper account as they discuss the devastation in Pakistan, at the White House on Nov. 23, 1970. Henry Kissinger [right] is also in attendance. (AP) Critics condemn his role in the bombing of Cambodia and Laos, his backing of Pakistan’s military despite its 1971 campaign of killings and mass rape in East Pakistan, the future Bangladesh.  U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger [left], Chinese Deputy Prime Minister Deng Xiaoping and White House Chief of Staff Donald Rumsfeld admire the banquet site at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, Nov. 25, 1974. (AP) They say he greenlighted Indonesia’s seizure of former Portuguese colony East Timor in 1975 that led to a quarter century of brutal occupation. U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger confers with Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheik Mujibur Rahman in Dacca, Bangladesh, Oct. 30, 1974. (AP) Kissinger, who served as secretary of state and national security adviser in the administrations of Presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford, led arms control talks with the Soviet Union, and worked to improve relations between Israel and its Arab neighbors through intensive shuttle diplomacy.  Presidential advisor Henry Kissinger chats with Pakistan President Agha Mohammed Yahya Khan in Rawalpindi, July 8, 1971. (AP) He visited China more than 100 times, and met every leader, and advised at least 10 U.S. presidents on foreign policy. U.S. President Richard M. Nixon congratulates Secretary of State Henry Kissinger on his 1973 Nobel Peace Prize award, at the White House in Washington, D.C., Oct. 16, 1973. (AP) His first, secret, visit to Beijing in 1971 opened the door to diplomatic relations between China and the United States seven years later. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger is seen at the State Department in Washington, D.C., after the announcement that he had won the Nobel Peace Prize, Oct. 16, 1973. (AP) Improved U.S.-China relations gave Kissinger leverage against the the two countries’ shared Cold War adversary, the Soviet Union, leading to arms control treaties between Washington and Moscow. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger greets Indonesia Foreign Minister Adam Malik during a State Department luncheon in Malik’s honor in Washington, D.C., June 29, 1976. (AP) U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Kissinger’s wisdom “led presidents, secretaries of state, national security advisors, and other leaders from both parties to seek his counsel.” Japanese Prime Minister Takeo Miki gesticulates as he talks with Secretary of State Henry Kissinger in Tokyo at Miki’s official residence, Dec. 8, 1975. (Koichiro Morita/AP) Amid widespread mourning by Chinese state media and social media users, Xi and other top leaders sent condolences to Kissinger’s family. A waitress pours a drink for former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger at a banquet in Beijing in his honor, Nov. 9, 1985. (Neal Ulevich/AP) “Dr. Kissinger was a good old friend of the Chinese people. He is a pioneer and builder of Sino-U.S. relations,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said at a regular news conference. Presidential advisor Henry Kissinger [right] reports to President Richard Nixon [center] on his four days of talks in Paris with North Vietnam’s negotiators at breakfast in the family dining room at the White House, Oct. 13, 1972. (John Duricka/AP) “China and the U.S. should carry forward Kissinger’s strategic vision, political courage and diplomatic wisdom… and promote the sound, stable and sustainable development of China-U.S. relations,” Wang added. Presidential advisor Henry Kissinger [right] reports to President Richard Nixon [center] on his four days of talks in Paris with North Vietnam’s negotiators at breakfast in the family dining room at the White House, Oct. 13, 1972. (John Duricka/AP)  Xi called Kissinger “a world-renowned strategist, and a good old friend of the Chinese people.” Secretary of State Henry Kissinger greets China’s Premier Zhou Enlai before the start of their meeting in Beijing, Nov. 12, 1973. (Harvey Georges/AP) The Shanghai Communique paved the way for diplomatic normalization and trade relations between the U.S. and China. China’s President Jiang Zemin [left] talks to former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger at a luncheon address to U.S. business groups in New York, Oct. 23, 1995. (Jim Bourg/Reuters) His last trip to Beijing featured a meeting with President Xi Jinping in July, shortly after Kissinger’s 100th birthday. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi meets former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, Nov. 22, 2019. (Jason Lee/Pool via AP) “Half a century ago, he made a historic contribution to the normalization of China-U.S. relations with brilliant strategic vision, benefiting both countries as well as changing the world,” Xi said in response to Kissinger’s death. Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing, July 20, 2023. (China Daily via Reuters)

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N Korea closes diplomatic missions in Bangladesh, DR Congo: reports

Editor04 mins

In a further shutdown of diplomatic missions, North Korea has been closing down its embassies in Bangladesh and the Democratic Republic of Congo, media reports showed.  As of May 2023, North Korea operated a total of 53 foreign missions, but since then, media reports have confirmed the closure of North Korean embassies and consulates in as many as a dozen locations, including those in countries Pyongyang views as longtime allies. The North shut down its embassy in Dhaka on Nov. 20 and informed the Bangladeshi government that its embassy in India would assume responsibility for the relevant affairs, according to a Bangladeshi daily, The Daily Star, on Nov. 26. The paper quoted a Bangladeshi foreign ministry official as saying the North’s move would not affect Bangladesh “in any way” since it does not have any notable trade relations with Pyongyang.  The two countries established diplomatic relations in 1973. The North Korean embassy in Bangladesh consisted of four diplomats, including the ambassador. Bangladesh does not have its mission in North Korea and maintains diplomatic relations with it through the Bangladesh embassy in China. Separately, NK News reported on Nov. 28 that the North Korean embassy in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is “set to close” and its operations will be handled by the embassy in Ethiopia, citing a spokesman for the country’s foreign ministry. But the spokesman said the North did not give a reason for the embassy closure. “Tightened international sanctions on North Korea have hampered its ability to earn foreign currency, making it difficult to maintain its diplomatic missions,” an official from South Korea’s Ministry of Unification, which oversees inter-Korean relations, said in October. “This is a glimpse of North Korea’s dire economic situation, where it is difficult to maintain even minimal diplomatic relations with traditional allies,” the ministry official said.  But amid the speculation over its finances, a North Korean foreign ministry spokesperson said on Nov. 3 that it is in the process of “closing and opening” diplomatic missions in other countries, and this is a normal part of the business of sovereign nations. “We will continue to take the necessary diplomatic steps in the context of the prospective development of our external relations in line with the evolving international environment,” the spokesperson said at that time.  Edited by Mike Firn and Elaine Chan.

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Chinese navy drops anchor in Myanmar for joint drills

Editor08 mins

Three Chinese naval vessels have arrived at Thilawa Port in Yangon for joint drills with Myanmar’s navy amid insurgent conflict along the neighboring nations’ shared border, according to the country’s military and pro-junta media reports. Nearly 700 sailors with a Chinese naval task force landed at Myanmar’s largest city on Monday aboard the destroyer Zibo, frigate Jingzhou and replenishment vessel Qiandaohu to take part in a maritime security drill and a goodwill visit, the Commander-in-Chief of Defence Services website said. Details about the date, location and format of the drills were not made publicly available. Junta Deputy Information Minister Major-General Zaw Min Tun categorized the visit as typical of two “strategic partners” who have “established a strong friendship between militaries.” But the arrival of the three vessels comes amid bilateral tensions stemming from a surge of conflict in northern Myanmar along the border with China since late October. Senior Myanmar naval officers [right] welcome members of the Chinese navy upon their arrival at Thilawa Port in Yangon, Myanmar, Monday, Nov. 27, 2023. (AFP/Myanmar’s Military Information Team) In the month since the “Three Brotherhood” Alliance of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Arakan Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army launched an offensive on Oct. 27 dubbed “Operation 1027” the rebels have made notable gains against the military in several key cities in Shan state in the country’s northeast. The alliance claims to have captured more than 170 military outposts since the start of the campaign. In an address to the National Defense and Security Council on Nov. 8, junta chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing said that the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, or MNDAA, has been using drones to attack the military, which he noted “can easily be bought in China.” Not long after, pro-junta supporters staged a protest in front of the Chinese Embassy in Yangon, accusing Beijing of supplying arms to the Three Brotherhood Alliance. In the meantime, China’s People’s Liberation Army on Nov. 25 began conducting live-fire drills in southern Yunnan province near the border with Shan state. Chinese state media has run footage of the drills involving armored vehicles, artillery shelling and small arms fire, saying they are aimed at “safeguarding national sovereignty, border stability and the lives and property of the people against repercussions from civil war in northern Myanmar.” Shoring up ties Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-based analyst of Myanmar affairs, told RFA Burmese that the visit is meant to reinforce the trade relationship of the two neighboring nations amid the border conflict. “The military recently raised an anti-Chinese voice, but now has praised the tour of Chinese vessels as a success in diplomatic relations,” he said. “China has made a lot of investments in its business across the world. It is also a major trade partner of more than 100 countries. So, China is seeking to maintain good relationships with its trade-partner countries.” Political and military commentator Aung Myo, a former officer in the Myanmar military, told RFA that China’s visit is meant to show support for the junta. “China has made a visit of navy vessels to offer their guarantee of a constructive, strategic relationship with Myanmar, and it is likely meant to relieve junta suspicions that China is involved in the armed conflict in northern Shan state,” he said. “Another message is to show that the influential power of China is standing with the [military] and its supporters.” Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army troops examine the recaptured Nansalet military camp on Nov. 25, 2023. (The Kokang) However, political commentator Than Soe Naing noted that the joint drills were scheduled before the start of Operation 1027 in northern Shan state, suggesting they are not meant to signal support for the junta. “The visit of the navy vessels is likely to be part of a goodwill tour and does not indicate Chinese support for the junta in its armed conflict,” he said. “China has expressed an unwillingness to take any sides – either that of the military or the resistance forces – while calling for peace dialogue.” On Oct. 27, the day that Operation 1027 began, China’s foreign ministry called for dialogue to end the conflict. Since then, there have been several high-level meetings between Chinese and junta officials in both China and Myanmar that have included talks on the fighting in Shan state, but clashes have continued, and the analysts RFA spoke with say there is no end in sight. Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army forces recaptured Nansalet military camp on Nov. 25, 2023. (The Kokang) Attempts by RFA to contact the Chinese Embassy in Yangon for comment on the drills and the state of Myanmar-China relations went unanswered Tuesday, as did requests for comment to junta officials. From Nov. 7-9, junta troops conducted drills alongside around 800 sailors and three destroyers from the Russian navy in the Bay of Bengal near Myeik township in southern Myanmar’s Tanintharyi region. Translated by Aung Naing. Edited by Joshua Lipes and Malcolm Foster.

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S Korea, Japan, China fail to set summit date, condemn N Korea

Editor07 mins

South Korea, Japan, and China have not only failed to agree on a date for a landmark trilateral summit of their leaders, but also in jointly condemning North Korea’s latest illegal satellite launch, exposing the widening gaps in reinvigorating that three-party cooperation. The foreign ministers of the three nations did not hold a joint press conference on Sunday, after their first ministerial talks in four years – a rare occurrence that could signify the differing diplomatic stances among these key Asian geopolitical entities. “The countries have reaffirmed their agreement to hold the summit, the apex of their cooperative framework, at the earliest mutually convenient time,” South Korea’s Foreign Minister Park Jin said in a solo briefing after the trilateral meeting with his Japanese and Chinese counterparts, Yoko Kamikawa and Wang Yi in the South’s port city of Busan. A South Korean government source, who asked for anonymity due to sensitivity of the matter, told Radio Free Asia that the joint press conference did not take place as Wang had pre-arranged plans. The person did not elaborate. According to a separate South Korean government official who spoke to RFA prior to the meeting, the primary goal of the ministerial meeting was to set a date for the trilateral summit. The last trilateral summit took place in 2019 in Chengdu, China. “Efforts will be made to ensure that the summit takes place soon,” Park said, without specifying an exact date. The South Korean minister mentioned his proposal for the three countries to reactivate their intergovernmental mechanism as a means to fortify the framework of trilateral cooperation. However, he did not clarify whether this proposal was agreed upon by all parties. Whether China would want to continue the trilateral summit platform has become questionable as its emergence as a global power has relatively lessened its focus in the region. The increasing collaboration of South Korea and Japan under the trilateral framework with the United States also has been a source of discomfort for Beijing. In fact, with South Korea’s current conservative Yoon Suk Yeol administration, Seoul has been more vocal in criticizing China on the international stage – with concerns ranging from Beijing’s decision to repatriate North Korean defectors back to the Kim Jong Un regime to China’s coercive behavior towards the democratically self-governed island of Taiwan. North Korea The three ministers also failed to issue a joint statement in condemning North Korea’s latest provocation, a departure from previous trilateral foreign ministers’ meetings which usually included a consensus on security issues in the Korean peninsula. “I emphasized that North Korea’s recent so-called military reconnaissance satellite launch, along with its ballistic missile launches and nuclear development, are among the greatest threats to peace and security in the region,” Park said during his solo briefing, without saying what has been agreed with his Japanese and Chinese counterparts.   North Korea launched a satellite last Tuesday, despite international warnings. Rocket technology can be used for both launching satellites and missiles. For that reason, the U.N. bans North Korea from launching a ballistic rocket, even if it claims to be a satellite launch. The lack of a joint statement is a sharp contrast with the trilateral foreign minister meeting among the U.S., South Korea and Japan in San Francisco, in which the three called the military cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow, including Russia’s technological aid to help the North Korean launch,  a “serious threat to international peace and stability.” Unlike previous occasions, when China’s foreign ministry often expressed its regrets, Beijing refrained from issuing a public criticism of North Korea’s latest launch, as the strategic value of Pyongyang has been raised due to intensifying U.S.-China relations. North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency on Saturday claimed that its satellite passed over Hawaii and observed “a naval base in the Pearl Harbor, the Hickam air-force base in Honolulu,” as well as South Korea’s Busan.

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Foreign ministers wield new brooms in Cambodia and Thailand

Editor013 mins

Shortly after being appointed Thailand’s new foreign minister in early September, Parnpree Bahiddha-Nukara made a telling remark: “We want the Thai people to feel that the foreign ministry is contributing to their lives.”  Sok Chenda Sophea, Cambodia’s new foreign minister, appointed a few days before Parnpree, told his new ambassadors: “All of you should work to represent the nation and enhance the Kingdom’s prestige, especially in areas like diplomacy, economics, food, sports and the arts. These are the focus of the new government’s foreign policy.” The two new foreign ministers bear a striking resemblance. Neither are career diplomats. Parnpree, whose father and grandfather were prominent in the foreign ministry, instead rose through the ranks of the commerce ministry under the Shinawatra sibling’s governments and then became chairman of the state oil company PTT.  Thailand’s Foreign Minister Parnpree Bahiddha-Nukara arrives at the government house in Bangkok, Thailand, Sept. 5, 2023, to take his oath of office. Credit: Sakchai Lalit/AP Sok Chenda cut his teeth in the tourism ministry in the 1990s. Parnpree served as chairman of the Thailand Board of Investment. Sok Chenda was head of the Council for the Development of Cambodia, the country’s investment board, from 1997 until this year. Parnpree was head of a negotiation team for the creation of a free trade zone with India. Sok Chenda headed the Cambodian Special Economic Zones Board. Parnpree studied public administration at the University of Southern California. Sok Chenda studied economics at the University of Aix en Provence.  Moreover, both are unlike their predecessors. Don Pramudwinai, a career diplomat and foreign minister under the years of Prayut Chan-ocha’s military-run government, was often accused of putting geopolitics, chiefly relations with Beijing, ahead of more balanced, economics-focused policy, as well as for conducting “cowboy diplomacy” over the Myanmar crisis that badly dented ASEAN unity.   Another charge against Don was that, because he was appointed by a junta that had just taken power in a coup, he “spent a large part of his time explaining when, how, and to what extent his country would return, or has returned, to democracy.” As Benjamin Zawacki added, “His tenure has been marked by a conservative and defensive posture rather than one of enterprise or ambition.”  Similar accusations have been leveled at Cambodia’s former foreign minister. Prak Sokhonn, who was quick to lash out against the perceived Western interference in Cambodia’s domestic affairs, was more aligned with Beijing than some officials in the economic ministries liked, and, one hears, not entirely trusted by the former prime minister Hun Sen. Indeed, Hun Sen is believed to have ignored Prak and the foreign ministry by condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  Economics at the center Parnpree and Sok Chenda are new brooms, appointed to refashion their ministries away from a defensive posture on their relations with China and a fixation with stoking geopolitical tensions, and towards a more sustainable, front-foot policy that puts economics at the center. As one Thai newspaper put it, Parnpree is “expected to impart a new momentum to the country’s foreign policy with a strong emphasis on exploring economic dimensions of bilateral and multilateral relationships.”  A Cambodian analyst has argued, “To maintain economic development, Cambodia cannot become subject to US or Western economic sanctions. Maintaining economic development may be Cambodia’s main priority under the leadership of Prime Minister Hun Manet. This appears to be the case with the appointment of Sok Chenda Sophea as the minister of Foreign Affairs.”  These ideas aren’t radical. Surakiart Sathirathai, Thailand’s foreign minister between 2001 and 2005, sought to create “CEO ambassadors”. Surin Pitsuwan, a predecessor, established a “Team Thailand” approach, with diplomats supposed to represent the nation as much as the foreign ministry. But the return to a more stable, stripped-down foreign policy makes sense as Thailand and Cambodia undergo political change.  Hun Sen speaks at a press conference at the National Assembly after a vote to confirm his son, Hun Manet, as Cambodia’s prime minister in Phnom Penh, August 22, 2023. It is said that Hun Sen did not entirely trust his foreign minister, Prak Sokhonn. Credit: Cindy Liu/Reuters Thailand has its first civilian, democratically elected government again for more than a decade. Cambodia has just undergone a once-in-a-lifetime generational succession of its ruling elites, with almost the entire old guard resigning in August to make way for a younger generation, mostly the children of that old guard. Neither Parnpree nor Sok Chenda are big characters. Indeed, they’re rather bureaucratic. And they are on the senior end of the age spectrum. At 66, Parnpree is one of the oldest in the new Thai cabinet. Sok Chenda, aged 67, is the oldest of Cambodia’s important ministers. (He’s 20 years older than the PM.) They are also excellent counterparts to their prime ministers. Srettha Thavisin, the Thai premier, is a businessman at heart.  Although Hun Manet rose through the ranks of the military, he studied economics and played a guiding role in the companies owned by his wife. Parnpree and Sok Chenda appear happy to defer much of the more razmataz foreign policy, such as showing up for international summits, to their prime ministers. Srettha, the self-styled “salesman”-in-chief, clearly likes traveling around the world and meeting foreign leaders, and posing for rather ingratiating and embarrassing selfies with them.  Cambodia’s ruling party obviously wants Hun Manet to be front-and-center of Cambodia’s engagement abroad, a role similar to the one played by his father. As such, having nose-to-the-grindstone foreign ministers makes sense alongside globetrotting premiers.  Experienced foreign policy thinkers In part, too, the two new foreign ministers are also designed to appease the private sectors, especially as Cambodia and Thailand have untested and unsteady governments; Thailand in the form of an odd coalition and Cambodia with its dynastic succession of Hun Manet and almost the entire cabinet. It’s not quite the Biden administration’s evocation of a “Foreign Policy for the Middle Class” but it’s not far off.  How the new foreign ministers translate their briefs into action remains to be seen. In…

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China media talk up economic environment to shore up FDI

Editor08 mins

In recent days, China’s state media have spared no effort in posting upbeat narratives even as the latest economic indicators for October showed a patchy recovery. Some reports hailed rosy projections from foreign investment banks as the basis of the argument such as the one in the Economic Daily on Friday, which cited the likes of Goldman Sachs and UBS Group. The paper said these banks believe that the “important driver of the accelerated recovery of [emerging markets in 2024] is China’s economic development.” The slew of articles talking up the economic landscape comes as foreign interests continued to shrink for the fifth month in October, with foreign direct investments (FDI) falling 9.4% to 987 billion yuan (US$138 billion) in the first 10 months of the year, compared with the year-earlier period.  Furthermore, China recorded its first-ever quarterly deficit in FDI by balance of payments for July-September, the latest data available, at US$11.8 billion. The measure records monetary flows linked to foreign-owned entities in China. Andrew Collier, managing director of Orient Capital Research, said foreign investors will have little appetite in placing their money in China until the structural adjustments in the economy are completed or the end is in sight.  “There will continue to be opportunities in certain pockets, including electronic vehicles, fintech, AI, and some supply chains, but they are relatively small compared with the larger industrial base and property,” he told Radio Free Asia. “China will always be important to the global economy but the peak growth days are over for the foreseeable future.” Amid the stuttering post-COVID recovery, Beijing is also grappling with economic structural challenges, coupled with global slowing growth and a cautious improvement in bilateral relations with the United States following last week’s summit between the two’s leaders Xi Jinping and Joe Biden in San Francisco.  The drag from the real estate market crisis, underscored by indebted property developers that have defaulted on creditors and implicated overseas investors, is playing up on the broader economy. A battered property sector means slower land sales, a crucial lifeline for the coffers of local governments who are already under the weight of overextended local government fund vehicles established to fund infrastructure projects that struggled to generate sufficient returns to cover their obligations.  Measures to shore up the property market included relaxing borrowing rules like reducing mortgage rates and the downpayment ratio and raising the liquidity of banks by lowering the reserve amount they need to maintain. Chinese regulators have also ordered banks and financial institutions to help stabilize the property market by keeping financing channels available for developers. Banking But in urging banks to step up efforts, authorities are reiterating the need to manage risks better and preserve the soundness of the financial system. Again, they borrowed the views of China-based foreign banks like HSBC and Standard Chartered, via state media reports. The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) mouthpiece People’s Daily cited these foreign institutions for being “very optimistic of the potential of the China market.” HSBC, it said, recorded a 54% increase in net profit to more than 6 billion yuan, and the bank would have invested an additional 3 billion yuan between 2021 and 2025. HSBC headquarters building is seen in Pudong financial district in Shanghai December 8, 2010. Picture taken December 8, 2010. (Credit: Reuters) Standard Chartered, on the other hand, would have invested US$300 million in areas including digital transformation, expanding its network and risk management between 2022 and 2024. “All the western banks have to say positive things about the Chinese economy otherwise they will be in trouble with the regulators and the leadership in Beijing,” said Collier. “However, a number of Hong Kong-based banks, including HSBC, earn the majority of their profits from mainland activities and therefore they are forced to put all their eggs in one basket as they have few alternatives.” Outlook for 2024 Pundits are hopeful for more stimulus policies when a revival of market-oriented reforms may be unlikely due to the political climate where the state exerts greater control over the economy including a once vibrant private sector. Such indications could come next month at the CCP’s annual Central Economic Work Conference where officials meet annually to set policy plans and the outlook for the world’s second-largest economy. In its forecast, UBS is expecting China’s 2024 growth to be in the mid-4% and Goldman Sachs at 4.8%.  Goldman Sachs analysts in their forecast for next year said several reasons constitute “a challenging longer-run growth outlook.” They are a persisting property downturn and ongoing demographic deterioration – with a shrinking working-age population – that requires China to reinvent its growth model. Additionally, while there may be a modest cyclical rebound in exports, it is unlikely to reverse the ongoing diversification of global value chains away from China and toward some of its peers. Still for 2023, China’s central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said the country is on track to achieve its targeted 5% growth. Edited by Taejun Kang and Mike Firn. 

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China orders financial support for battered property sector

Editor010 mins

The Chinese government has urged banks and financial institutions to back a sputtering real estate sector where the biggest developers have buckled under the weight of tremendous debt and don’t have the capital to complete pre-sold homes to hundreds of thousands of homebuyers. The move underscores Beijing’s dilemmatic position of having to defuse local government debt risks while pumping capital into the real economy to prop up growth. The property sector is particularly precarious not only because it is a major growth driver, but the housing issue is closely tied to social stability.  Authorities told financial institutions that they need to support “reasonable” fund-raising requirements for developers that are “operating normally,” according to a report from the official Xinhua news agency Friday.  The report added that capital raised through credit, bonds and stock issuance has paid off in helping stabilize the real estate market, citing a meeting organized by the central bank, the People’s Bank of China, foreign exchange and stock regulators, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange and the China Securities Regulatory Commission.  The meeting was also attended by officials from the two stock exchanges, policy banks and 18 national commercial banks, five asset management firms and four of the country’s biggest stockbrokers. There is no official tally of the extent of debt chalked up by property developers.  China Evergrande is the world’s most indebted developer with more than US$300 billion in liabilities. It defaulted on its debt two years ago and has yet to come up with a repayment plan. At the end of October, a Hong Kong High Court judge gave the Hong Kong-listed company until Dec. 4 to come up with a plan when a winding-up hearing will be heard. Evergrande is not alone. Country Garden and Sunac are also in hot soup.  The crisis is more pronounced in tier-two cities or below, where most of the 841 demonstrations against property developers since January 2022 to date have occurred, based on data from Freedom House’s China Dissent Monitor. Most of them were staged by homebuyers demanding delivery of their properties with a smaller proportion of construction workers seeking salary payments. Implications of property woes China’s property crisis is a growing concern and a drag on the broader economy – the financial wellbeing of local governments, where traditionally, land sales for real estate projects are a huge contributor to their revenues.  These governments are already under pressure from the cracks of local government fund vehicles that are issued to fund infrastructure like roads and airports but have not generated enough returns to cover their obligations. And massive debts piling up are also fueling concerns of a systemic financial crisis. The Central Financial Commission, the financial watchdog led by Premier Li Qiang, on Monday emphasized in a meeting the need to improve financial services that will help economic development. “It is necessary to comprehensively strengthen financial supervision, the responsibility of managing risks, coordination among departments, heighten control of the risk sources as they are diffused, and boost relevant reforms to improve prevention, warning and management mechanisms,” according to a separate Xinhua report citing a commission meeting that Li chaired. A woman rides a scooter past a construction site of residential buildings by Chinese developer Country Garden, in Tianjin, China August 18, 2023. Credit: Reuters Government debts are expected to account for 83% of China’s gross domestic product in 2023, up from 77% last year, according to data from the International Monetary Fund.  The IMF’s Mission Chief for China, Sonali Jain-Chandra pointed out that more measures are needed to secure a recovery of the property market, which should include ways to accelerate the exit of troubled developers and greater central government funding for housing completion, following a visit to China early this month. According to analysts at Nomura, an estimated 20 million units of unconstructed and delayed pre-sold homes across the country are the biggest hurdle to turning the property crisis around, and about $440 billion will be needed to complete their construction, CNBC reported. In October alone, official data showed that the scale of unsold floor area for residential real estate soared by 19.7%, compared with October 2022. Funds raised by developers dropped 13.8% to 10.73 trillion yuan (US$1.48 trillion) in the first 10 months of the year. Domestic loans into real estate dropped 11% while foreign investments plunged 40.3% in the 10 months. The rating agency S&P Global has forecast China’s property sales to fall as much as 15% this year, with the drop to taper off to 5% for 2024. The continued property slump would hinder the post-COVID recovery of the world’s second-largest economy where real estate and its related industries make up about 30% of GDP. Beijing has also been ramping up measures to prop up the economy. It announced last month a 1 trillion yuan government bond issuance, which allows local governments to frontload part of their 2024 bond quotas. Indications for 2024 Investors and businesses are also watching out for more indications on Beijing’s macroeconomic direction for 2024 at next month’s annual Central Economic Work Conference. “I think they will continue to send similar signals as what we’ve seen in the past couple of quarters. That is, a high priority to supporting private consumption, fighting financial risks including from housing, continued fiscal support and continued support for the private sector and further opening-up,” said Allan von Mehren, China economist for Danske Bank.  “It will be interesting to see if we get any clues about their growth target for 2024.”  Von Mehren pointed out that there is speculation of a 5% target but he sees this as a “quite ambitious target as the base effects will be much less favorable compared to this year.” Beijing has set a growth target of around 5% for this year, which state media has touted this month to be within reach. Last month’s data show China’s recovery to remain uneven. While industrial output and retail sales were on an uptrend, the consumer price index, a gauge of inflation,…

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Ongoing conflict in northern Myanmar kills 2, including child

Editor05 mins

Residents in northeastern Myanmar are facing both a humanitarian crisis and intense conflict, people living in the area told Radio Free Asia. On Sunday night, airstrikes by junta forces killed two people, including a child, in Shan state.   Locals were caught off guard when a junta plane began an aerial attack on Myo Thit village in Namhsan township around 10 pm. It was unexpected because there had not been any fighting beforehand, said one local, asking to remain anonymous for fear of reprisals.  “There is no fighting in Namhsan, but the aerial bombardment was carried out while people were sleeping,” he told RFA, adding that six women and two men were injured in addition to the two killed. “People died and houses were also burned.” The explosions damaged 23 houses in total. The bomb weighed roughly 500 pounds and killed Tar San Naw, as well as a child, when it landed on a house, according to a statement released by the Ta’ang National Liberation Army on Monday. The junta has not released any information about this attack and calls by RFA to Shan state’s junta spokesperson Khun Thein Maung went unanswered. Conflict in northeastern Shan state has intensified in the last two months, as an allied group of resistance armies took three major cities in Operation 1027 in late October. Earlier that month, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army attacked several junta convoys, causing their troops to retaliate. Since Oct. 10, nearly 30,000 internally displaced people have been sheltering in makeshift tents near the China-Myanmar border in Laukkaing township.  A camp for internally displaced people in Laukkaing township on November 18, 2023. Credit: The Kokang Since Thursday, heavy rain has made life more difficult for those forced from their homes. After several days of rain, resources are becoming harder to find and people’s health is deteriorating, said a Laukkaing resident, who did not want to be named for security reasons.  “They have been living in tents since before [the rain]. It is raining and they are not comfortable anymore. Most are workers from other areas, not residents,”  he told RFA. “There are many people who came to work in Laukkaing from other areas. Water also became scarce in that camp.” Elderly people and children are also more prone to illness in the colder weather without blankets, he added. On Saturday, the camp’s water and electricity were cut off. The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army warned Chinese citizens in Laukkaing to return to China to avoid conflict in the region. They also told civilians to stay away from military camps and not to move around the area. All of Laukkaing’s roads and gates out of the city are blocked and locals are facing food shortages, residents also reported. Junta troops are not letting food or supplies into the city.  After Operation 1027, battles between the military junta and the three northern allies have been continuing in eight townships, including Namhkan, Chinshwehaw, Nawnghkio, Lashio and Manton. Translated by RFA Burmese. Edited by Mike Firn.

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Brotherhood Alliance campaign in Shan State spawns contagion effect in Myanmar

Editor013 mins

The Three Brotherhood Alliance’s Operation 1027 in northern Shan State has caused a contagion effect, with its sweeping victories since late October followed by major gains by ethnic resistance organizations across Myanmar.  Since the country’s founding in 1948, the military has never suffered such significant and widespread battlefield setbacks. Despite having seized power in a coup d’état in February 2021, Myanmar’s military has never been able to consolidate power. But now, it looks like the beginning stages of their total defeat, with plummeting morale amongst the rank and file.  Operation 1027 continues across Shan State with the Three Brotherhood Alliance — , which includes the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, (TNLA) the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and the Arakan Army — and some people’s defense forces under the National Unity Government (NUG) having taken nine towns, over 160 military camps, and now controlling key roads.  Opposition forces have seized abandoned armor, artillery, and a large cache of small arms and ammunition. And army attempts to supply their isolated forces by air have had little success with opposition forces often recovering the supplies. Members of the Karenni Nationalities Defense Force, KNDF pose in front of Loikaw University in Kayah State following their attack on junta forces on Nov. 15, 2023. Credit: KNDF The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) is currently pushing towards their former headquarters in Laukkaing, which they lost in 2009. Ironically, the commander of Myanmar’s military forces in that 2009 battle was none other than junta leader Min Aung Hlaing.  Radio Free Asia has reported that a second battalion of some 120 men has laid down their arms in Shan State. The first light infantry battalion to do so, which included 41 men, took place on October 30, 2023. Authorities in Naypyitaw are so concerned about the total loss of Kokang Special Autonomous Zone, that they replaced the head of the local allied Border Guards Force that was established in 2009, Myint Swe, with Brigadier-General Tun Tun Myint of the northeastern command. But beyond that the military is unable to do little other than barrage the region with long-range artillery and aerial bombardments. Despite Min Aung Hlaing’s vow to mount a counter offensive, the military is short on manpower, helicopter lift capability and is facing crumbling morale. Contagion Effect The Kachin Independence Army has joined the fray, capturing a military base in Kutkai, in northern Shan state, where they claim 30 soldiers were killed.  There are ongoing encounters between them and military regime forces in Kachin. With the roads contested, the military is now dependent on ferrying in men and supplies. The fighting has significantly expanded in the past week. Karenni forces launched a parallel offensive, Operation 1111, in Kayah state. They have seized 20 military outposts in 6 days of fighting.  But most significantly, they are in the middle of an assault on Loikaw. The city of 50,000, is the first provincial capital that is at risk of falling to opposition forces.  Karenni Nation Defense Forces (KNDF) have claimed to have killed 110 soldiers and taken 38 prisoners of war. Footage spread across social media shows KNDF personnel taking the surrender and providing medical care for soldiers at the University in Loikaw.  Members of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, MNDAA Pose with ammunition seized from Hkoke Htan military outpost in Kokang region on Nov. 16, 2023. Operation 1027 continues across Shan State with the Three Brotherhood Alliance and some people’s defense forces Under the National Unity Government, NUG having taken nine towns, over 160 military camps, and now controlling key roads. Credit: The Kokang The situation in Chin state has been more fluid. Military forces drove some Chin fighters into India’s Mizoram state, but some dozen were returned to military custody by the Assam Rifles. Days later, military personnel found themselves in Mizoram where they had fled. In this case, the Assam Rifles helicoptered them back to safety in Myanmar.  The military has responded with airstrikes; one of which killed eight children when a bomb fell on the house being used as a makeshift school. The situation in Rakhine has the potential to be the most costly to the SAC.  The Arakan Army (AA) and the military broke their 2020 ceasefire following the coup, but both sides quickly concluded that an escalation of violence was not in their best interest.  A second ceasefire was reached in November 2022. This was an enormous disappointment for the National Unity Government, which sought a new front against the junta.  Breakdown in Rakhine Yet the involvement of the Arakan Army in northern Shan state, where they are a member of the Three Brotherhood Alliance, has led to a breakdown in the peace in Rakhine state.  The military has deployed several navy ships to the region along with additional personnel, but both failed to serve as a deterrent. The AA broke the ceasefire on November 13.  In the first 24 hours of commencing offensive operations, the AA seized over 40 military and police outposts. Some 26 police surrendered. In many cases police have abandoned remote posts to consolidate in the larger towns.  A man stands amongst debris in the aftermath of a military strike on a camp for displaced people near northern Laiza area on Oct. 11, 2023. Credit: AFP The AA took the town of Pauktaw, their first. The military has responded as they can, with aerial bombardment and indiscriminate fire from their naval vessels that has led to the death of innocent civilians and over 20,000 displaced people.  There are reports that several ministers from the Rakhine State Military Council have already fled the capital Sittwe, for fear of being arrested by the AA. The AA can be expected to quickly fill the political vacuum. In Sagaing — where a joint operation between the KIA, the AA, the All Burma Students’ Defense Force, and other PDFs led to the capture of Kawlin — the first of 330 nationwide township capitals to fall, has now spread to Tigyaing township. The…

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Investigative Journalism Reportika © March 2022 by Ij-Reportika is licensed under CC BY 4.0