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Category: South Asia

Planned dam sparks concerns that Luang Prabang could lose World Heritage status

Editor010 mins

A satellite photo comparison dated Feb. 2, 2024 (left) and Feb. 7, 2021 (right) shows vast construction in preparation for a controversial hydropower dam across the Mekong River, about 25 kilometers (16 miles) upstream of the historic Lao town of Luang Prabang, a UNESCO World Heritage site. The Lao government is playing down speculation the dam project puts the UNESCO status at risk. (Planet Labs) Speculation that the historic Lao town of Luang Prabang could be stripped of its World Heritage status because of a massive dam planned upstream is worrying local residents. Although the Lao government denies there is cause for concern, a former senior UNESCO official has reportedly warned that it’s a real threat hanging over one of the country’s main tourist attractions. Luang Prabang was named a UNESCO World Heritage Site in 1995 for its “unique, remarkably well-preserved townscape.” It’s known for its daily parade of monks collecting alms, vibrant night market, well-preserved Buddhist temples, including the 16th-century gilded Wat Xieng Thong, and colonial-era architecture.  Nearly 780,000 foreign and domestic visitors in the first nine months of 2023, according to Lao tourism figures.  Miss Laos New Year carries a replica of King Kabinlaphom’s head during the annual Laos New Year or ‘Pi Mai’ celebrations at the Wat Xiengthong Buddhist temple in Luang Prabang, Laos, April 15, 2019. (Manan Vatsyayana/AFP) Questions about the town’s status arose after Minja Yang, a former deputy director of the UNESCO World Heritage Centre, told Nikkei Asia in January that Luang Prabang was at risk of losing its status because of increasing development related to a hydropower dam project about 25 kilometers (16 miles) upstream on the Mekong River.  In March 2023, UNESCO issued a report recommending that Laos continue efforts to ensure that the Luang Prabang Dam would not have a negative impact on the town’s heritage sites, and take measures to regulate tourism-related activities and infrastructure development. The US$3 billion, 1,460-megawatt dam project on the Mekong mainstream is located between the upstream Pak Beng hydropower project and the downstream Xayaburi Dam, and will provide power for export to Thailand and Vietnam after completion in 2027. It is one of many dams the Lao government is building along the Mekong River in the country’s quest to become the “battery of Southeast Asia.” French colonial row houses are seen along a street in Luang Prabang, Laos, March 2023. (Courtesy photo) The U.N.’s Paris-based cultural agency requested that Laos submit to the World Heritage Centre an updated report on the state of conservation and the implementation of the measures by Feb. 1, 2024, to preserve the city’s “outstanding universal value.” “If the second dam is indeed constructed, I believe Luang Prabang should be delisted,” Yang told Nikkei in an email. “Without the World Heritage status, ill-conceived projects of shopping malls and casinos aimed for certain categories of tourists that we have so far succeeded in stopping over the past 20 years, will now cave into various vested interests,” Yang told Nikkei. “So, I can only imagine what the future of the town will be.” RFA could not reach Yang or officials in UNESCO’s Bangkok office for comment. Mixed reactions An official from the World Heritage Department of the Lao Ministry of Information, Culture and Tourism,  who wanted to be identified only by his first name Pheune, told RFA on Feb. 2 that Luang Prabang would not be delisted and that UNESCO officials had expressed concerns outlined in the March 2023 report. Pheune also said that construction of the Luang Prabang Dam would not affect the town’s World Heritage status because the site is far from the city. A Luang Prabang province official, who like the other sources in this report requested anonymity for safety reasons, agreed. “To delist the town of Luang Prabang is not easy,” he said.  “Yes, many Chinese are leasing buildings and transforming them to hotels and restaurants, and some of them might not be complying with the rules and regulations of UNESCO, so our city officials should be aware of those issues and should step up the control,” he said. A girl wears a traditional Lao costume at the Wat Xiengthong Buddhist temple on Lao New Year or ‘Pi Mai’ in Luang Prabang, Laos, April 15, 2019. (Manan Vatsyayana/AFP) But other Lao officials and city residents say they are concerned that Luang Prabang might be at risk because of too many Chinese-backed developments, as Chinese investors lease more buildings and turn them into hotels and restaurants. A Lao businessman in the city said he heard about the delisting rumor, but believes that Luang Prabang is still preserving its heritage, culture and tradition, especially in the city center.  The development is occurring mainly in the suburbs, and builders must receive permission before erecting structures, he said. The man cited the example of a Chinese company that wants to build a cable car line near the town, though city authorities have not yet given it the green light. But a town resident was not so optimistic, noting that Chinese investors in various businesses are not interested in preserving local tradition and culture.   “I heard that Luang Prabang could be stripped of its World Heritage status because there are too many Chinese businesses here,” he told RFA. “Don’t forget, getting World Heritage Site status is not easy. Our government should be careful because Luang Prabang as a World Heritage Site attracts a lot of tourists from around the world. We, the residents, enjoy better living conditions because of that status.” A tourist visits the Haw Pha Bang temple in the grounds of the Palace Museum in Luang Prabang, Laos, Sept. 8, 2014. (Mark Baker/AP) Another resident raised concern about the future dam.  “What would happen if the dam broke in the future?” he asked about the fate of Luang Prabang, which lies in a valley at the confluence of the Mekong and Nam Khan rivers. “Certainly, that break would wreak havoc on our town and people.” Phakhanxay Sikhanxay, director general of the Heritage…

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Suspected Chinese spy pigeon released after 8-month detention in India

Editor04 mins

A pigeon, suspected of being used by China for espionage, has been released after eight months in police custody in Mumbai, according to local media reports.  The falsely-accused bird was released from the Bai Sakarbai Dinshaw Petit Hospital for Animals on Tuesday, said a police officer in India’s most populous city, as cited by the Press Trust of India (PTI) news agency on Wednesday. Its current whereabouts are unknown.  The pigeon was caught in May, 2023, at a port in the Chembur suburb of Mumbai with two rings tied to its legs featuring words that appeared to be Chinese, which led the police to suspect it was spying for China, PTI reported. The bird was taken to the animal hospital for custody, until it emerged in January that it was actually an open-water racing pigeon from Taiwan, which had escaped and flown to India, according to the news agency. This was not the first time a pigeon has been detained by the watchful Indian police force. In March, 2023, two suspected spy pigeons were caught in the eastern Odisha state. The first one was found on a fishing boat with devices fitted on its leg which appear to be a camera and a microchip. The two birds are believed to still be under investigation.  Back in 2020, police in Indian-controlled Kashmir captured a bird that belonged to a Pakistani fisherman, but later found that it had simply flown across the border, admittedly without permission. Before that, in 2016, another pigeon was captured after it was found with a note threatening Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Flying spies Throughout history, pigeons have been used by the militaries in many countries for delivering messages and spying. China, for instance, allegedly runs a special military pigeon unit at the Guilin Joint Logistics Support Center in Kunming, Yunnan province, according to media reports. “Today, with all kinds of ways to intercept messages sent by electronic means, terrorists or enemies of a state can use ways that cannot be tapped, such as pigeons,” said Yusuf Unjhawala, an Indian defense analyst as well as a scholar at the Takshashila Institution in Bangalore “The use of animals for military purposes is an old thing, from horses to elephants to pigeons,” said Unjhawala. “Dolphins can also be used to detect underwater mines.” A Taiwanese defense expert, Shen Ming-Shih from the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, said racing pigeons have gained such popularity that raising them has become an industry in Taiwan. “Taiwan also uses racing pigeons to send intelligence or deliver messages, despite the advancement of various communication technologies,” Shen told Radio Free Asia. Edited by Taejun Kang and Elaine Chan.

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Myanmar arrests alleged Chinese scammers, former MP

Editor03 mins

Police in northern Myanmar have arrested 10 phone and internet fraud suspects and sent them to China, the Chinese embassy in Yangon announced.  Six of those arrested on Tuesday night are accused of being ringleaders of the scam operation, the embassy’s statement said.  They include Bai Suocheng, a former chairman of Myanmar’s Kokang region, his son Bai Yingcang, Wai Huairen, Liu Zhengxiang, Liu Zhengmauk and Xu Laofa. They have since been handed over to China, the embassy said.  Bai Suocheng and his son were among 10 people named in arrest warrants issued on Dec. 10 by China’s Ministry of Public Security. Bai Suocheng is a former member of parliament for the junta’s Union Solidarity and Development Party and a close friend of regime leader Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, according to political analyst Than Soe Naing, who added that Suocheng was trusted by the junta. “Bai Suocheng was mainly working on scamming businesses in Kokang’s economy and China demanded his arrest when this scamming increased. The junta had to carry it out,” he told Radio Free Asia.  “When China issued a warrant, the military junta immediately brought him back to Naypyidaw and gave him security. However, China intervened to stop the fighting in the northern Shan state, so the junta could not deny them and gave China what they wanted.” The Chinese embassy statement called the operation “another significant success in law enforcement cooperation between China and Myanmar.” On Jan. 23, more than 1,000 Chinese nationals were arrested in Shan state’s Namhsan for alleged connection to scam centers. About 44,000 people suspected of committing crimes have been handed over to China as a result of joint police action against online fraud in northern Myanmar, the statement continued. This number includes investors and gang leaders. As of Wednesday, the military had not released any information on the joint operation. RFA contacted regime spokesperson Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun, but he did not respond by the time of publication. Translated by RFA  Burmese. Edited by Mike Firn.

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Karenni resistance group claims victory in Myanmar’s northeast

Editor06 mins

The Karenni Nationalities Defense Force captured a mineral-rich city in northeast Myanmar, the group announced, saying most junta troops fled from checkpoints and camps on Friday, two days before the ethnic army moved in.  Karenni troops captured Mawchee city in Kayah state on Sunday with no subsequent battle, a spokesperson told Radio Free Asia. The city in Hpasawng township is home to one of the world’s largest tin ore and tungsten mines. “The entire city of Mawchee has been captured and controlled by the Karenni revolutionary forces,” he said. “The military junta camps in Mawchee are in a state of retreat. We learned that junta troops retreated around the night of Jan. 26.” Because there was no battle, residents did not have to flee, he added. Banyar, the director of the Karenni Human Rights Group, said residents had been warned that if the junta abandoned camps in towns and villages, it often bombarded them with aerial and artillery attacks. “The junta army always does two things when they abandon these towns and villages. One is to burn the villages and the other is to shoot and destroy them with heavy weapons and airstrikes,” he told RFA on Sunday. “We are worried about that. People are well aware of this situation and they are making the necessary arrangements.” RFA has not been able to contact residents of Mawchee because phone and internet access have been cut off. RFA called Kayah state’s junta spokesperson Myint Kyi to learn more about the situation, but calls went unanswered on Sunday. Karenni joint forces have been carrying out Operation 1111 since Nov. 11, 2023. As part of the operation, the Karenni Nationalities Defense Force formed alliances with the Karenni Army, Urban Guerrilla Forces, and People’s Defense Forces from Loikaw, Moebye, and Demoso in Kayah and southern Shan state. Together, the joint forces have been carrying out attacks on junta camps. Since Nov. 11, the forces have captured 20 camps in Loikaw, Demoso, and Moebye, according to a Karenni Nationalities Defense Forces statement on Jan. 28. Battles to occupy cities are likely to continue this year, according to political analyst Than Soe Naing. “People are worried about the ceasefire in northern Shan state [breaking down]. Although it seems like the [military] movement in other areas across Myanmar will be calm, the Kachin Independence Army has captured Mabein city [in Shan state],” he said. “As for Rakhine state, Pauktaw has been completely seized. So the developments of the spring revolution and its momentum continue.” The Three Brotherhood Alliance and junta signed a ceasefire on Jan. 11 under Chinese pressure during a meeting in Kunming to end clashes over territory in northern Shan state. However, other ethnic armed groups have continued fighting elsewhere in the country, forcing junta troops to abandon five cities nationwide. Junta tanks seized by the Arakan Army at junta camps in Paletwa township on Jan. 18, 2024. (Arakan Army Military Desk) Shan state’s Mabein, Chin state’s Paletwa, Rakhine state’s Pauktaw, and Kayah state’s Ywar Thit and Mawchee have all been captured since the ceasefire was announced. According to data compiled by RFA, ethnic armed groups and People’s Defense Forces have attacked and seized 36 cities across the country from the military junta since October 2023. Junta chief Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing said Friday that groups should not take up arms and ignore the law in demanding self-determination, self-governance, and the establishment of self-administered regions. He told a meeting of the junta’s stability, law, and order committee these rights can only be given with the approval of parliament. It has been nearly three years since the junta seized power from a democratically elected government in a Feb. 1, 2021 coup. The junta has repeatedly delayed plans to call national elections. Translated by RFA Burmese. Edited by Mike Firn.

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US urges China to push Iran to pressure Houthis over Red Sea attacks

Editor06 mins

U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has asked Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to use Beijing’s influence on Iran to push it to stop the Houthis in Yemen from attacking Red Sea trade routes. The appeal came during two days of meetings in Bangkok between the pair, according to a senior Biden administration official who spoke on condition of anonymity according to rules set by the White House. Over 12 hours, the pair also discussed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Myanmar’s civil war, North Korea, Israel’s war with Hamas, the South China Sea, fentanyl and artificial intelligence, the official said. It was their first meeting since Oct. 26, when Wang visited Washington in the run-up to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s trip to San Francisco in November for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, during which he also held direct talks with U.S. President Joe Biden. The official said the meeting was meant to build on the commitments made during that summit, including to reinstate military-to-military talks and to stem illicit Chinese exports of precursors for fentanyl, which has been called a leading cause of death for American adults. A working group on counternarcotics would be established on Tuesday and both Military-Maritime Consultative Agreement Meetings and talks about regulating artificial intelligence would be held in the Spring.  “The two sides are committed to continuing these strategic channels of communication,” the official said, adding there would be “a telephone call between the two leaders at some point in the coming months.” Diplomatic telephone On the apparently widening conflict in the Middle East that began with the attack on Israel by Hamas on Oct. 7, the White House official said Sullivan had pressed Wang to use Beijing’s influence on Iran to push it to end attacks by Houthis on trade ships transiting the Red Sea. The Houthis’ latest attack took place Friday and this time directly targeted a U.S. warship, the USS Carney, which was patrolling the area to try to prevent further attacks in the lucrative trade route. Both Hamas and the Houthis have been labeled “proxies” of Iran by the United States, with Tehran not viewed as having direct control of either group but being accused of funding and training both. The Houthis, meanwhile, are accused of targeting trade ships off Yemen’s coast in response to Israel’s invasion of Hamas-controlled Gaza. As a major trading nation, China had its own interests in stopping the attacks on the Red Sea route and had the ability to pressure Iran as one of the biggest buyers of its oil, the White House official said. “We would characterize both the economic and trade relationship as giving Beijing leverage over Iran to some extent. How they choose to use that, of course, is China’s choice,” the official said. “Iran’s influence over the Houthis, and the Houthis’ destabilization of global shipping, raises serious concerns not just for the U.S. and China but for global trade,” they added. “There should be a clear interest in China in trying to quiet some of those attacks.” The civil war in Myanmar was also discussed by Sullivan and Wang, building off talks between Sullivan and Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin on Friday, during which the official said Sullivan “stressed the importance” of getting humanitarian aid into Myanmar. However, the official said the United States was less hopeful about China’s assistance in pushing North Korea to end its growing nuclear weapons program or its recent provision of ballistic missiles to Russia. “I’m not sure I would characterize anything recently as constructive,” the official said, adding the United States still hoped China would come round to helping “bring us back to the path of denuclearization.”

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Fate of junta officers unclear following surrender to rebels in Myanmar’s Shan state

Editor08 mins

Speculation is swirling over the fate of six brigadiers-general from the Burmese military following their surrender of a strategic Shan state city to ethnic rebels earlier this month in a humiliating setback to the ruling junta. The six were commanding officers deployed in the junta’s Kokang regional command center at Laukkai, the largest base in northern Shan state near the Chinese border. The base was overrun on Jan. 4 by the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, or MNDAA, prompting 2,100 soldiers in the facility to lay down their arms. Soldiers and family members were permitted to leave by the rebels. Sources close to the military told RFA Burmese that on Jan. 6, the six generals were flown by helicopter to the Northeast Regional Military Command headquarters, and later sent to the capital Naypyidaw.  The sources spoke on condition of anonymity due to security concerns. AFP, citing an unnamed military source, said the six generals had been taken into custody. The Irrawaddy online news journal on Tuesday cited unnamed “junta sources” as saying that three had been sentenced to death, and three jailed for life. The sources said the six had been charged under military law for “shamefully abandoning” their posts. RFA could not immediately confirm the sentences. AFP on Tuesday quoted the junta spokesman Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun as saying there was “no sentence for the six brigadier-generals yet.” The officers were identified as Brigadiers-General Moe Kyaw Thu, the head of Laukkai headquarters; Tun Tun Myint, the acting chief of the Kokang Self-Administered Zone; and Zaw Myo Win, commander of the 55th Division; and Aye Min Oo, Thaw Zin Oo, and Aung Zaw Lin – the heads of Operation Centers 14, 16, and 12, respectively. Sentences may have repercussions Analysts said that stiff sentences for the generals could have major repercussions within the military. Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington and an adjunct at Georgetown University, called the reported sentences “extremely draconian,” adding that, if true, they are “likely to cause an enormous backlash within the senior officer corps,” particularly if they were simply following orders from Naypyidaw. Regardless, he said, “no amount of scapegoats will make up for the SAC’s gross incompetence in managing the economy and war effort,” using an acronym for the official name of the junta, the State Administration Council. This photo taken on Dec. 10, 2023 shows members of the Mandalay People’s Defense Forces on patrol amid clashes with Myanmar’s military in northern Shan State.(AFP) Former Captain Aung Myo Khat, who now advises Myanmar’s resistance forces as part of the anti-junta Civil Disobedience Movement, agreed that the officers had likely surrendered on Naypyidaw’s orders, and that dealing with them had become a delicate situation for the junta. “If the soldiers who retreated learn about [the junta leadership] taking such action against their commanders, there may be a rebellion,” he said. “On the other hand, if no action is taken, battalion commanders and officers … in all parts of Myanmar may also follow in their footsteps and surrender. So, I think [junta leaders] are in a dilemma.” Than Soe Naing, a political commentator in Myanmar, said that regardless of who ordered the surrender, it was “a result of [the junta’s] mismanagement.” “Now there are lots of complaints about [mismanagement] in the army, and soldiers have lost confidence,” he said. “The idea that they cannot win the battle and therefore have to launch a suicide attack or surrender is dominating [the mindset of junta troops] in the entire Northeast region, and its spreading.” Leadership facing criticism The MNDAA claims that the seizure of Laukkai resulted in the largest surrender by the military during Operation 1027, an offensive it began in late October as part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance of ethnic armies, along with the Ta’ang National Liberation Army and the Arakan Army. Since its launch, the alliance has reportedly captured 15 cities in northern Shan state, seized control of more than 200 military camps, and prompted the surrender of some 4,000 junta troops. Myanmar’s military chief Min Aung Hlaing makes a speech during a defense and security council meeting in Naypyidaw, Jan. 31, 2023. (Provided by Myanmar Military Information Team/AFP) Nearly three years since its February 2021 coup d’etat, the military’s control of Myanmar is “rapidly diminishing,” Zach Abuza said, noting that there are growing calls for junta chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing to step down. “There will be schisms within the military leadership between those who are interested in negotiating a political settlement and those who feel that the military hasn’t been sufficiently resolute in crushing the dissent,” he said. Min Aung Hlaing has faced increasing criticism over his handling of Operation 1027 and for allowing Myanmar’s once-strong military to appear weak under his watch. Edited by Joshua Lipes and Mat Pennington.

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Bhutan ‘open for business’ as voters choose former PM Tobgay to rebuild economy

Editor014 mins

“Bhutan is open for business,” wrote Prime Minister-elect Tshering Tobgay on X, after the people of the tiny Himalayan kingdom returned him to power in parliamentary elections this month. Analysts say Tobgay’s two-thirds majority win indicates the 800,000 people of Bhutan are pinning their hopes on an experienced hand to rebuild the economy, reverse an ongoing migration crisis, and strengthen ties with the landlocked nation’s two neighbors, India and Tibet, amidst ongoing border negotiations with China.  The victory by Harvard-educated conservation advocate Tobgay, 58 – who served as Bhutan’s second democratically elected prime minister between 2013 and 2018 – comes as the country faces “unprecedented challenges” that are prompting it to tailor its famed “Gross National Happiness”(GNH) policy to one that takes into account its economic needs.  Tobgay’s People’s Democratic Party (PDP) – which promised to leverage GNH in its efforts to turn Bhutan into a developed nation – won 30 of the 47 National Assembly seats, while its rival Bhutan Tendrel Party (BTP) won the remaining 17 seats in Bhutan’s fourth general elections since its 2008 transition from an from an absolute to a constitutional monarchy, with a bicameral elected parliament. Bhutan’s Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay with his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi before their meeting at Hyderabad House in New Delhi, India, July 6, 2018. (Altaf Hussain/Reuters) Bhutan’s GNH index was first conceptualized in 1972 by the King Jigme Singye Wangchuk as a “holistic approach” to sustainable development and a more important measure of growth than gross domestic product. Since then, the country’s leaders have promoted and the model — which emphasizes good governance, sustainable development, cultural preservation and promotion, and environmental conservation — widely regarded as Bhutan’s soft power export to the world.  However, concerns about the economy and record high youth unemployment levels of 28.6%, which have forced young Bhutanese to emigrate in large numbers for better job opportunities, have weighed on this election, with both parties citing economic growth as a key priority. The PDP has said it believes that “…GNH should continue to be the springboard to enhance peace, prosperity, and happiness for all Bhutanese in our collective journey to become a developed nation.”  “The PDP has the experience of having worked as the opposition in the first democratic government and as the ruling party in the second. So, it has exposure to different aspects of governance,” said Dasho Kunzang Wangdi, Bhutan’s former chief election commissioner, who set up and ran the country’s first democratic elections in 2008.  “We are hopeful their efforts will be geared towards not only reviving but also giving an added fillip to economic growth and balancing that with the need to ensure the general well-being of the people of Bhutan,” he added. Balancing happiness and growth Tobgay – who detailed an ambitious 12-point economic transformation plan to turn Bhutan into a developed nation by 2047 – is expected to lead the implementation of a 15 billion ngultrum (US$181 million) economic stimulus plan and drive initiatives to attract foreign direct investment, improve ease of doing business, and boost export and tourism levels.   “Our nation’s economy is teetering on the brink of collapse. With an average growth rate of just 1.7% in the past five years, our economy is at its worst in our recent history,” said Tobgay in his party’s manifesto, titled ‘A Contract with Bhutan.’ “The next five years are crucial for us to rebuild – get our economy back on track, enable private businesses to thrive, increase job opportunities, revitalize our education and healthcare systems, uplift the poor, empower our public servants, transform agriculture, and boost national revenue generation,” Tobgay added. He also plans to accelerate Bhutan’s hydropower and renewable energy generation, while bolstering the country’s private sector through the establishment of special economic zones and the privatization and divestmens of state-owned enterprises to boost capital markets.  Tobgay’s office did not immediately respond to Radio Free Asia’s request for comment on his program. A Bhutanese man looks at posters of candidates on the eve of polling to the upper house National Council in Samdrup Jonkhar, Bhutan, April 22, 2013. Bhutan ended more than a century of absolute monarchy with its first parliamentary elections in 2008. (Anupam Nath/AP) Tobgay’s approach represents “a pragmatic tailoring of the GNH concept to what the world needs today,” Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy, an associate fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, a Washington, D.C. think tank. “Bhutan knows that it cannot be isolated from the rest of the world and the rest of the economy, and that’s why this whole special economic zone has been proposed. And I think that is a classic example of how Bhutan tailors its GNH concept with its economic growth and economic need,” he told Radio Free Asia. Bhutan has been gradually boosting the communications and information technology sector since the early 2010s, and the move to set up the SEZs intends to draw investment and sustainable development through service-intensive projects such as resorts and IT parks, rather than industrial projects, Shivamurthy said. “There’s a massive expectation from the new government. I think people have voted for this new government for the very reason that they know this party… and expect that this experienced party will offer them solutions rather than a new party coming in and trying to start from scratch,” he added.  Namgay Pem, a Bhutanese citizen who cast her vote at the Lingmu-Toedwang Constituency in Punakha District, one of the 20 dzongkhags or districts comprising Bhutan, echoed that sentiment. “The interventions that the government brings in should not compromise the happiness and well-being of the citizens, and that GNH, which is the main philosophy, should guide all the developmental and economic developments in the country,” she said. Relations with India and China The election was closely watched by India, against the backdrop of Bhutan’s ongoing border negotiations with China – an issue of strategic concern for India, which has faced border disputes and skirmishes with its northern neighbor.  In October, Bhutanese Foreign Minister Dr Tandi Dorji visited…

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The Myanmar military’s air superiority is slipping away amid sanctions and opposition attacks

Editor012 mins

One of the most important setbacks for Myanmar’s military since an opposition alliance launched Operation 1027 last October has been the loss of three different aircraft: two jet trainers and an Mi-17 heavy-lift helicopter. An Mi-35 attack helicopter was also lost in 2023.  The Myanmar military should have total air superiority.  For the first two years of the conflict, the opposition National Unity Government’s (NUG) best air defense was doxing Air Force pilots – publishing their addresses, as part of an assassination campaign. Gradually, the NUG’s People’s Defense Force militias began to erode the junta’s air superiority by effectively deploying armed drones.  Significantly, we’re now seeing Ethnic Resistance Organizations (EROs) begin to deploy air defenses, at a time when the junta has become even more dependent on air attacks. That increased tempo of operations requires more maintenance on overworked airframes. Fighters of anti-junta Mandalay People’s Defense Forces prepare a drone with an explosive-drop amid clashes with Myanmar junta forces in northern Shan State, Dec. 11, 2023. These military junta losses matter for three reasons. First, while not small by regional standards, the Myanmar Air Force (MAF) certainly does not have excess capacity. At the top end, it has some 31 SU-29s and four  recently delivered SU-30s from Russia.  The recently delivered seven JF-17s multi-role fighters, jointly produced by China and Pakistan, are reportedly already grounded due to cracks in their airframes and other maintenance issues.  Airworthiness questions On paper, Myanmar has approximately 40 other jet fighters, but these are old, Chinese-produced knock-off Russian jets from the 1990s. They are well beyond their service life.  The MAF is thought to have 20 Nanchang Q-5s, the Chinese version of the MiG-19, down from the 36 it imported from 1994-2001. It also has some 21 Chengdu J-7s, a Chinese produced MiG-21. That’s down from some 60 that it had purchased from 1990-1999.  It’s unclear how many of these fighters are still airworthy.  Myanmar’s military has relied on its 18 Russian-built Yak-130 trainers for much of its combat operations. Since the February 2021 coup, Myanmar has taken delivery of some six Guizhou JL-9 jet trainers, referred to as FTC-2000G, which have a spotty performance and safety record.  A fighter of anti-junta Mandalay People’s Defense Forces pilots a drone near the frontline amid clashes with Myanmar junta forces in northern Shan State, Dec.11, 2023. (AFP Photo) The MAF also flies an unknown number of Chinese K-8 trainers that can be used for ground support. Second, we should also assume that given sanctions on the Singapore-based companies that have been the key importers of spare parts, the overall lack of foreign exchange available to the junta, and other supply chain issues, including those caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine, that around 20% of the aircraft are probably not operational.  In December 2023, the sanctioned director of Sky Aviator and two others were caught trying to  smuggle 508,925 Singapore dollars (US $382,380) in cash out of that city-state. Sky Aviator, which has an office in Singapore, had a large contract to purchase spare parts for the air force. Another sanctioned firm, Sky Royal Hero Company Limited, has the contract for the maintenance and spare parts for servicing the Russian jet fighters.  For nearly three years, the MAF has been flying at increased tempos without the scheduled maintenance they require.  Airstrikes ramping up The military’s promised counter offensive has not materialized. Over 4,000 troops have surrendered since Operation 1027 began, and well-documented recruitment issues mean the military does not have a sufficient number of troops to launch ground offensives across the multiple battle zones, which has forced them to rely on long range artillery and air strikes. An independent research firm documented 336 airstrikes in December 2023, alone, with nearly half against the Three Brotherhood Alliance, the group of ethnic armies behind Operation 1027.. The loss of one of their 12 already over-taxed heavy lift helicopters is another important setback for the military’s counter-offensive. One of their tactical advantages has been air mobility and resupply, especially given their loss of key roads. Although the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) claims to have shot down the Guizhou JL-9/FTC-2000G on Jan. 17, there is little evidence to support this, Video footage that shows the plane falling from the sky, without smoke or any other sign of hostile fire, indicates likely engine failure. Myanmar Air Force Jet fighters drop bombs during military exercises in Ayeyarwady delta region, Feb. 2, 2018. (Lynn Bo Bo/Pool via AP) That leads to the third implication: The MAF is losing aircraft to hostile fire.   While the military claims that it was a technical malfunction that brought down a K-8 trainer, Karenni forces claim to have shot it down.  The KIA claims to have shot down an Mi-17 transport helicopter, killing all six crew members on Jan. 3.   Both helicopters and the trainers, especially when they are being used for ground attacks, are vulnerable to small arms fire.  Eyes on Beijing But these developments also beg the question: What weapons are being used to down the aircraft? The only ethnic armed group that is known to have shoulder-launched surface-to-air missiles (known as MANPADs) is the United Wa State Army (UWSA).  Until very recently, the UWSA has sat out the conflict, neither supporting the junta nor joining the NUG. It recently declared its neutrality in the Three Brotherhood Alliance’s Operation 1027, though it did receive two townships from them.  A man looks on at homes destroyed after air and artillery strikes in Mung Lai Hkyet displacement camp in northern Kachin state, Oct. 10, 2023. (AP Photo) Though the UWSA has quietly sold weapons to other ethnic armies and the NUG, it has, to date, refrained from selling MANPADs.  Has that changed? And if so, why now? It was long believed that they would not sell the weapons for fear of angering China. So did China approve the transfer, or are the groups now willing to incur Beijing’s wrath?  The KIA claims that they shot down the Mi-17…

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What role did China play in a rebel group’s victory in northern Myanmar?

Editor016 mins

When the Three Brotherhood Alliance of rebel groups in Myanmar started a campaign against junta forces in the northern part of the country they chose a slogan designed to win support from a fourth potential ally: China. “Wipe out the scammers, rescue our compatriots,” the group declared in the message.  China, which shares a border with Kokang, a region in Shan state in northern Myanmar, had expressed increasing frustration with organized crime rings that had been allowed to operate in the area by junta-aligned forces. An estimated 120,000 people are being held in Myanmar against their will. Chinese nationals have both been trafficked by these groups and fleeced by them.  The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army – which along with the Ta’ang National Liberation Army and the Arakan Army make up the Alliance – had tried and failed twice before to retake the region. This time, however, Kokang’s capital of Laukkai fell into rebel hands on Jan. 4.  Since then, China has played a clear role in mediating a truce between the two sides. But the initial success of the rebel campaign has led analysts to speculate that it had, in fact, received Chinese backing.  China’s leaders may have sought to kill “two birds with one stone,” according to Deng Yuwen, a political commentator and former journalist  – strengthening China’s position in the region while removing the destabilizing threat presented by the scam compounds. “The Chinese government can use the scamming operations as a way to secretly support local forces … and control the area that way,” Deng said.  “They solve the scamming problem and cultivate bold agents of the Chinese state at the same time,” he said, meaning China believes the new leaders of Kokang will better reflect its interests.  Chinese police arrest Chinese nationals allegedly involved in online scamming operations in Myanmar, Dec. 10, 2023. (Kokang officials) A ‘king’ and a coup Kokang has long been in China’s orbit, and many of its residents are ethnically Chinese. In the mid-20th century, Kokang served as a base for Myanmar communists.  With the collapse of the Communist Party of Burma in 1989, local warlord Peng Jiasheng – whose nickname was “the king of Kokang” – switched his allegiance to the junta. The military granted the region autonomy and allowed Peng to keep his military presence in the area, though China remained an important patron.  In 2009, Peng was ousted in a coup led by his second-in-command, Bai Suocheng, who consolidated his family’s control over the state. Bai allowed government troops to be stationed in Kokang for the first time while residents were granted Myanmar nationality.  Bai offered sanctuary to criminal groups in return for huge payouts that also benefited the junta. Eventually, massive, organized scam operations began to thrive in Kokang. China pushes back Last year, the Chinese government appeared fed up. In August, it took part in a joint operation with Myanmar and Thailand targeting the scam centers. Over the intervening months, more than 40,000 Chinese nationals were arrested in Shan state for involvement with online scams, according to data collected by RFA.  A number of powerful Kokang business people were arrested at a trade fair in China in October, and in November, Beijing issued arrest warrants for a well-connected Kokang politician and three family members on allegations of masterminding an online scam ring.  China’s Ministry of Public Security issued arrest warrants for 10 people, including the former chairman of the Kokang self-administered region, Bai Suocheng [top row, first left], his son Bai Yingcang [top row, second left] and his daughter Bai Yinglan [top row, third left]. (The Kokang) On Dec. 10, China’s Ministry of Public Security put out another wanted list, naming 10 individuals in connection with the scams, including Bai Suocheng, his grown children and a few junta officials. The move not only showed Beijing’s growing impatience with Myanmar’s handling of the scam rings, but signaled that China favored leaders in Kokang more closely aligned with its national interests. The prince’s plans After he had been dethroned as the king of Kokang, Peng Jiasheng resurfaced as the leader of the MNDAA, fighting Myanmar forces on occasion without significant success. When he died in 2022, his son, Peng Denren, took over and immediately made plans to reclaim control of his father’s lost territory. The Alliance launched “Operation 1027” – so-called for the on Oct. 27, 2023, date – offensive against Myanmar military strongholds in northern Myanmar. Even though the Alliance remained outnumbered by government troops, the rebel forces scored several significant victories early on. Its soldiers have since seized more than 300 military bases, around a dozen towns, and won control of several key trade routes with the neighboring Chinese province of Yunnan. Members of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army walk past a Myanmar military base after seizing it during clashes near Laukkaing township in Myanmar’s northern Shan state, Oct. 28, 2023. (Kokang Information Network/AFP) Suspicion over ‘foreign’ experts Myanmar’s junta chief in November claimed that the ethnic-minority armed groups were getting outside assistance, according to a report by Agence France-Presse.  He said the rebels had been using “drones with advanced technology” to attack junta positions and were aided by “foreign drone experts,” although he didn’t specify which country they came from. Li Jiawen, a spokesman for the MNDAA, denied the offensive was aided by the Chinese. “The situation we have today is the result of nearly 70 years of tyranny by the junta,” Li said. Even China’s tacit approval of the operation is important, Yun Sun, the director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank, said in an interview with RFA. “The biggest support that China has lended to this organization is to not stop them,” she said.  Rebel forces were able to retreat over the border to avoid junta artillery barrages. China allowed the flow of money and goods in Shan state that helped to sustain the rebels to continue, Sun said.  And there was likely a psychological…

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Investigative Journalism Reportika © March 2022 by Ij-Reportika is licensed under CC BY 4.0