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Myanmar guerrilla group says it shot junta conspirator in Yangon
A man accused of working with Myanmar’s ruling junta has been shot in the head in central Yangon, a local guerilla group said. The Urban Owls released a statement shortly after Monday’s shooting claiming responsibility for the attack, saying that businessman Nyan Lwin Aung was targeted for his close relationships with military leaders. They said the man accompanied junta leader Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing on his trip to Russia last year and met with Russian Defense Ministry officials. Nyan Lwin Aung also bought weapons for the junta, the group claimed. He was shot in the head at an intersection in Latha township, residents told Radio Free Asia on Tuesday. “It happened at around 10 p.m. last night,” said one local, asking to be kept anonymous for fear of reprisals. “He was sent to the Yangon General Hospital. A large number of junta troops arrived with military vans and investigated 17th to 19th Street after the shooting incident.” Police and soldiers began searching civilians along the busy Shwedagon Pagoda Road after the shooting, the local said. Another Latha resident said Nyan Lwin Aung was shot at close range in his left temple and was sent to Yangon General Hospital. The hospital’s emergency department confirmed to RFA Burmese that Nyan Lwin Aung arrived at the hospital Monday night with a serious wound. One surgeon said he was in a critical condition and being treated in the intensive care unit. Yangon division’s junta spokesperson and regional attorney general Htay Aung had not responded to RFA at the time of publication. Monday’s statement by the Urban Owls added that Nyan Lwin Aung had also worked for the Ministry of the Interior, installing CCTV facial recognition cameras. It said he had a company in Myanmar with business subsidiaries in Thailand, Russia, China, and the United Arab Emirates under the name North Gate Engineering and Technology. RFA has yet to confirm the group’s claims. When a reporter called North Gate’s Yangon office an employee said he was not authorized to comment. The guerilla group has carried out a number of killings, claiming responsibility for the death of Ye Khine, security chief of the Yangon International Airport, as well as Minn Tayzar Nyunt Tin, a junta-affiliated lawyer accused of money laundering. Translated by RFA Burmese. Edited by Mike Firn.
South Korea Presidents clash over North Korea policy
Five years ago, when leaders of the two Koreas exchanged a historic handshake in Pyongyang, the Korean people looked on with hope, wishing that this masterpiece of diplomacy may finally put an official end to the seven-decade-long war on the peninsula. But as time surges forward, the once-celebrated inter-Korean agreement stands vulnerable, overshadowed by North Korea’s escalating nuclear threats, and its leader, Kim Jong Un reinforcing ties with his fellow authoritarian leader Vladimir Putin of Russia. Now, South Korea grapples with a growing divide on whether to uphold that deal. The debate is set to intensify on the back of former South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s attendance of the commemorative event of the fifth anniversary of the September 19 Pyongyang Joint Declaration in Seoul on Tuesday. “The [current] government and the ruling party have expressed their intentions to reconsider or possibly scrap the military agreement,” Moon said at the event. “However, it’s crucial to note that the inter-Korean military agreement has been instrumental in preventing military confrontations between the two Koreas.” Moon’s comments are largely seen as a warning against the administration of President Yoon Suk Yeol for its hardline policy on North Korea. “It would be irresponsible to remove the last safety pin in place,” Moon added. “As relations between the two Koreas deteriorate and military tensions escalate, it’s imperative for both sides to uphold the agreement.” His remarks may potentially improve public opinion of South Korea’s progressives before the general election in April. Should that happen, it would conversely work against Yoon’s hardline policy on Pyongyang. Under the 2018 inter-Korean military deal, the two Koreas agreed to “end hostility” and to “take substantial steps to make the Korean Peninsula a permanent peace zone.” “Military accords should be honored and respected to the fullest extent to ensure dialogue continues and to prevent dire consequences,” Moon said. The former president was supported by key officials from his administration – his foreign minister Kang Kyung-wha and unification minister Kim Yeon-chul at the event. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un with South Korean President Moon Jae-in inside the Peace House at the border village of Panmunjom in Demilitarized Zone, South Korea on April 27, 2018. (Credit: AP) South Korea’s progressives see consistent engagement with North Korea as a potential catalyst for altering Pyongyang’s hostile behavior and its actions of violating human rights. They believe that integrating North Korea into the international stage would foster transparency, open avenues for dialogue, and gradually shift the North’s stance towards global norms and values. Conservatives, on the other hand, have long protested against what it defined as far-fetched engagement, saying that excessive aid to North Korea despite its continued provocations would only foster its nuclear ambitions. The conversative Yoon administration is thus adopting a hawkish policy on North Korea, aimed at pressing Pyongyang to forfeit its nuclear weapons. The ongoing debate is set to gain its momentum, as Yoon’s Defense Minister nominee Shin Won-sik has opined about his inclination to scrap the inter-Korean military deal last week. Some analysts consider the deal invalid, with North Korea returning to its brinkmanship diplomacy after its high-stakes summit with the United States collapsed in Hanoi February 2019. For instance, in November 2019, North Korea fired coastal artillery near the maritime buffer around the border island of Changlin-do. In May 2020, North Korea fired gunshots towards a South Korean guard post at the inter-Korean border, and in September 2020, a South Korean civilian was shot dead at the maritime border by the North and subsequently incinerated. Further complicating matters is North Korea’s amplified nuclear and missile threats. The threats are expected to further intensify with Putin vowing to aid North Korea in developing its satellite technology. Rocket technology can be used for both launching satellites and missiles. For that reason, the UN bans North Korea from launching a ballistic rocket, even if it claims to be a satellite launch. South Korea’s internal disagreement surrounding its North North Korea policy could potentially undermine that of the allies. The lack of a unified stance – be it hardline or dovish policy – risks disabling Seoul and Washington to form a coherent strategy that could be implemented in the long-term. Experts, however, noted that the main reason for this policy inconsistency is due to Kim Jong Un’s altered stance on his diplomacy after the fallout in Hanoi in 2019. “North Korean inconsistency is what leads to South Korea having to change its policy. If Pyongyang had continued to engage post-Hanoi summit, I think that both, Moon first, and Yoon now would have probably sought to try to accommodate this. Alas, this hasn’t been the case,” said Ramon Pacheco Pardo, Professor of International Relations at King’s College London and the KF-VUB Korea Chair at the Brussels School of Governance of Vrije Universiteit Brussel. “Likewise, I think that it was domestic instability in North Korea in the late 2000s, due to Kim Jong Il’s health condition, and then the transition process to Kim Jong Un, [being] the main reason behind the end of the inter-Korean engagement. So liberals and conservatives may not fully agree on how to approach North Korea, but I actually think that Pyongyang is the main reason why Seoul changes its policy.” Edited by Elaine Chan and Taejun Kang.
Kim-Putin military cooperation may pose potential setback for China
Updated Sept. 15, 2023, 5:35 a.m. ET North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian leader Vladimir Putin inspected a fighter jet production facility in Russia’s Far East on Friday while the United States allies prepare joint countermeasures in response to safeguarding the security in both Asia and Europe. Kim’s high-profile visit this week has pressured the allies to intensify their multilateral security cooperation in the region, a development which experts noted, may see China emerging as the most disadvantaged nation. The North Korean leader went to the Far Eastern Russian city of Komsomolsk-on-Amur early on Friday and inspected the Yuri Gagarin Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aircraft Plant (KnAAZ), according to Russia’s official news agency Tass. “A red carpet was unfurled for the top-ranking guest,” Tass said. “In accordance with the Russian tradition for special guests, Kim was welcomed with bread and salt.” KnAAZ is at the heart of Russia’s fighter jet production, which produces advanced warplanes such as its fifth generation jets: the Su-35 and Su-57. Kim’s visit to Russia’s core defense facility came after both sides agreed on Wednesday to boost their military cooperation that would significantly aid their battle against the West. The core of the cooperation is most likely to be Russia’s weapons technology transfer in exchange for North Korea’s conventional ammunition. As the speculation continues to rise, North Korea has reportedly begun providing ammunition to Russia in aiding its Ukraine aggression, according to a report from the New Voice of Ukraine, the country’s one of the largest news outlets, on Thursday. Putin has already received “122mm and 152mm artillery shells as well as Grad rockets from North Korea,” the New Voice of Ukraine claimed, quoting the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov. The cementing of such a trade deal puts the U.S. at risk in its attempt to curb Russia’s aggression on Ukraine, potentially prolonging the war, and containing North Korea’s nuclear pursuits to enhance nuclear capabilities. In response, the U.S., South Korea and Japan are reinforcing security cooperation to confront the latest development that could threaten their interests. Top security aides of the three – the U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, South Korea’s National Security Office Director Cho Tae-yong and Japan’s National Security Secretariat Secretary General Akiba Takeo – vowed to further consolidate their ties to jointly counter the possible Moscow-Pyongyang military cooperation. “The three NSAs reaffirmed the importance of trilateral coordination consistent with their commitment to consult,” White House said in a statement Thursday. “They noted that any arms exports from the DPRK to Russia would directly violate multiple UN Security Council resolutions, including resolutions that Russia itself voted to adopt.” The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea is the North’s formal name. Meanwhile, the U.S. and South Korea held discussions under the Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consulting Group (EDSCG) in Seoul on Friday, where vice foreign and defense ministers from both sides discussed practical ways to curb heightened security risk for the allies, including the latest posed by the high-stakes Kim-Putin summit. “The Russia-North Korea military cooperation is a serious violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions,” Chang Ho-jin, South Korea’s first vice minister of its Foreign Ministry, told reporters after the EDSCG discussion. “We have shared our concerns about the recent intensification of North Korea-Russia military cooperation and discussed future responses.” The U.S. and South Korea representatives said the trilateral cooperation including Japan would boost the allies’ capability in deterring North Korea’s nuclear provocations. “Japan would play a major role in stopping the North Korean naval and air threats in/over the East Sea, and Japanese Aegis ships might also assist in shooting down North Korean ballistic and cruise missiles,” said Bruce Bennett, adjunct international/defense researcher at the RAND Corporation and a professor at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. “In short, Japan would have a major role in helping to stop any North Korean invasion of the ROK,” he added, referring to South Korea’s formal name. “In the wake of a North Korean invasion of the ROK, the defense of the ROK might actually fail without Japanese assistance. And interestingly, if North Korea starts a major conflict against Japan and not the ROK, the ROK could play a major role in stopping the North Korean aggression,” Bennett pointed out. The EDSCG meeting represent an elevated level of cooperation among democracies, underscored by a heightened call for stronger trilateral collaboration. “To address the common security concerns, the initial step is to solidify and institutionalize the trilateral cooperation framework among South Korea, U.S. and Japan,” Jin Chang-soo, an expert at South Korea’s prestige think tank, Sejong Institute, said. “The most significant strategic disadvantage from this [cooperation] would likely be on China.” South Korea, the U.S., and Japan take part in joint naval missile defense exercises in international waters between Korea and Japan, April 17, 2023. (The South Korean Defense Ministry via Reuters) Biggest disadvantage: China China has long opposed the emergence of a multilateral security platform in the region, frequently expressing concerns over the possible establishment of what it called a “mini-Nato” in the Indo-Pacific. However, the latest Kim-Putin summit is likely to just provide the impetus for a more united security front involving the U.S., South Korea, and Japan – and possibly more. “This would be a major concern for China. The level of security cooperation among the U.S., South Korea, and Japan in terms of material capability, surpasses that of China, Russia and North Korea; they simply aren’t on the same playing field,” Jin said. “From China’s perspective, the North Korea-Russia summit intensifies pressure to bolster the trilateral cooperation among the like-minded nations. The military collaboration sought by North Korea and Russia to involve China might also not be in China’s best interests.” The consolidation of the trilateral security cooperation may work against China’s expansionist ambition. The institutionalized coalition could become a barrier to Beijing’s naval operations, including those in the South China Sea, where China has long pursued its territorial claims. Improved intelligence sharing and joint military exercises may also restrict China’s strategic options, potentially jeopardizing its…
G20 ends on high note for Indian host
The G20 wound up on Sunday with leaders visiting a memorial statue to Indian independence leader Mahatma Gandhi, a day after adding 55 new member states via the African Union and coming up with a compromise communique soft on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Prime Minister Narendra Modi invited the African Union to join the G20 as a permanent member on Saturday in his opening remarks, calling on members to end a “global trust deficit.” “It is time for all of us to move together,” Modi said. Despite widespread anticipation that this year’s summit would be a damp squib, it appeared to have featured some significant pushback on China’s apparent unwillingness to play ball with the developed world. Modi announced on Saturday that negotiators had resolved deep differences over the wording on the war in Ukraine, but the phrasing – not invasion by Russia but “war in Ukraine” – was clearly a bone to Russia and China, whose leaders did not attend. China and Russia were opposed to any joint statement that censures Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. U.S. President Joe Biden skipped the final session of the summit, heading to Vietnam, where a Whitehouse official said the two nations would elevate their relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership, putting it on a par with Beijing and Moscow’s engagement with Hanoi. U.S. President Joe Biden leaves for Vietnam after attending the G20 Summit, in New Delhi, India, Sunday, Sept. 10, 2023. Credit: AP Modi pronounced the summit a success. “On the back of the hard work of all the teams, we have received consensus on the G20 Leaders Summit Declaration. I announce the adoption of this declaration,” Modi told the G20 leaders in New Delhi. “#G20India has been the MOST ambitious in the history of #G20 presidencies. With 112 outcomes and presidency documents, we have more than tripled the substantive work from previous presidencies,” said India’s G20 Sherpa representative Amitabh Kant on social media. Commentators said that it was significant that India appeared to be ready to take a more assertive role in global politics. Modi ended the summit by passing on the ceremonial gavel to Brazil’s president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, whose country takes over the bloc’s presidency. Welcome Africa The announcement of permanent inclusion of the 55-nation African Union (AU) is likely to be a blow for Chinese president Xi Jinping, who did not attend the summit for unknown reasons, and recently heralded the new membership of six countries in the BRICS grouping as “historic.” The AU’s young population of 1.3 billion is expected to double by 2050, when it will account for a quarter of the global population. It’s strategically important to both China, Africa’s largest trading partner and one of its largest lenders, and Russia, its leading arms provider. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, right, shares a light moment with African Union Chairman Azali Assoumani upon his arrival at Bharat Mandapam convention center for the G20 Summit in New Delhi, India, Saturday, Sept. 9, 2023. Credit: Pool via Reuters Meanwhile, in what will likely be seen as a challenge to Xi’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), U.S. President Joe Biden, Modi and allies announced a rail and shipping corridor connecting India with the Middle East and ultimately Europe. The project will include the United States, India, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the European Union and other countries in the G20. Commentators speculate it will enable greater trade and be an ambitious counter to China’s massive BRI, through which it has sought to invest and lend its way to making its economy better connected with the world. Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, left, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi shake hands next to U.S. President Joe Biden on the first day of the G20 summit in New Delhi, India, Sept. 9, 2023. Credit: AP/POOL The moves on Saturday, which were roundly seen as pushback against China, came against a background of speculation as to why China’s Xi was not present and calls for Beijing to explain itself. “It’s incumbent upon the Chinese government to explain” why its leader “would or would not participate,” Jon Finer, the U.S. deputy national security adviser, told reporters in Delhi. He said there was speculation that China is “giving up on G20” in favor of groupings like BRICS, where it is dominant. Chinese Premier Li Qiang, who attended the summit as a representative of Xi, called on the European Union Commission President Ursula von der Leyen for greater unity and cooperation between the two sides to counter global uncertainties, according to a statement on Sunday from China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Li urged the EU to provide a non-discriminatory environment for Chinese companies, as the bloc becomes warier of the risks of engaging China, seeing it as a “systemic rival” since 2019. Edited by Mike Firn and Elaine Chan.
Vietnam wants it all in balancing its ties with the US and China
President Joe Biden is heading to Vietnam for a visit that will upgrade bilateral relations to a “strategic comprehensive partnership,” a symbolic step that opens the door to wider cooperation between former Cold War foes who are now grappling with an assertive, powerful China. The elevated status is a symbolic gesture that recognizes the developed state of U.S.-Vietnam ties, almost 30 years after they normalized diplomatic relations and a half century since the end of the Vietnam War. But it doesn’t reflect a fundamental change in Vietnamese policy. Indeed, it should be seen as a manifestation of what Hanoi calls its omnidirectional and independent foreign policy. The overall growth of the relationship will remain hemmed in by the fact that the communist leaders who run Vietnam share the same world view as those who control China. In a partnership hierarchy created by the Vietnamese government, at the very top are neighbors Laos and Cambodia. However, what was once Vietnam’s secure western flank is now a source of concern with China’s surge in influence through investment, lending, development projects, and corruption. Comprehensive strategic partnerships had been reserved for Vietnam’s friends since the days of the revolution: Russia, China, and India. In 2023, in recognition of their burgeoning economic relationship, Vietnam elevated South Korea to that pantheon, recently followed by Singapore and Australia, and soon Indonesia. Liu Jianchao [shown], the head of the Communist Party of China’s International Liaison Department, recently met with General Secretary of Communist Party of Vietnam, Nguyen Phu Trong. Credit: Andy Wong/AP file photo For the U.S., the leapfrog from Vietnam’s comprehensive partner to a comprehensive strategic partner is important for three reasons. First, for top leaders in Hanoi, symbolism does matter. That a former foe is now on a par with revolutionary era friends is a win. Second, this upgrade will not please China, even though Hanoi has worked assiduously to try to convince Beijing that it is maintaining its independent foreign policy. It is inconceivable that Hanoi has not briefed Beijing on this, and Communist Party of Vietnam General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong has made party-to-party ties stronger than ever. He would not have approved the relationship upgrade if he felt insecure by Beijing’s reaction. Five days before Biden’s expected arrival this weekend, Liu Jianchao, the head of the Chinese Communist Party’s International Liaison Department met with Trong, who no doubt gave him further assurances. While Washington may want to rankle Beijing, which has overplayed its hand in the region with its aggressive South China Sea behavior and hawkish “Wolf Warrior” diplomacy, its real goal is to see Vietnam be strong enough to assert its vaunted autonomous foreign policy. Hanoi will no doubt be sending a politburo-level delegation to assure Beijing that the upgrade is not a lurch towards the United States or in any way anti-Chinese, but a manifestation of Vietnam’s independent and omni-directional foreign policy. Third, at the bureaucratic level, it’s hoped that the upgrade gives political top cover for the line ministries to increase their cooperation with U.S. counterparts across a range of issues, from countering narcotics and human trafficking to security cooperation. The upgrade does not automatically lead to more market access, more trade and investment, more port visits and other military engagements, but it won’t hurt their prospects either. In short, this upgrade is long overdue, and reflects the fact that the U.S. has far deeper ties than many other states ranked above it. An economic imperative The upgrade comes as Vietnam’s economy is slowing dramatically. Despite 8.5% growth in 2022, GDP only grew by 3.72% in the first six months of 2023, half the target. The Asian Development Bank and IMF have lowered their annual forecasts to 5.8% and 4.7%, respectively. While Vietnam has benefitted from corporate supply chain diversification out of China, that trend has also made the economy over-dependent on exports, which have fallen for five consecutive months, the longest slump in 14 years. In July, exports fell 3.5%. Industrial production contracted 1.8% in the first half of 2023, causing a 13% year-on-year increase in industrial layoffs. While Vietnam enjoys a large trade surplus with the U.S. – $44.3 billion in the first seven months of 2023 – that is down 24% year-on-year. Vietnam runs enormous trade deficits with China, as its manufactured goods are highly dependent on imported Chinese components. Without its exports to the U.S., Vietnam would run chronic trade deficits. As a direct foreign investor, the U.S. lags behind South Korea, Singapore, China, and Japan. In early 2023, Boeing announced a production facility, while Apple shifted an iPad production line out of China to Vietnam. But there’s plenty of room for growth. We should also not lose sight of portfolio investment from the U.S., where one fund alone has invested $1.5 billion in six projects. An employee works at Heesung Electronics Vietnam factory in Hai Phong, Vietnam, Aug. 29, 2023. Vietnam’s economy is slowing, with GDP growth of only 3.72% in the first six months of 2023. Credit: Nhac Nguyen/AFP Corporate Vietnam is trying to make a splash in the U.S.. Electric vehicle maker VinFast broke ground on a $4 billion plant in North Carolina, and has seen wild stock valuations after its recent listing on NASDAQ. VinFast sees the United States as the key to its growth, if not viability, despite a rocky first nine months that saw few sales and a recall. The tech firm VNG, Vietnam’s first “unicorn,” has filed paperwork for its listing on NASDAQ. If Vietnam is to escape the middle-income trap, it’s through trade and investment ties with the U.S., not China. To that end, executives from a swath of U.S. semiconductor and other tech industry will be joining Biden’s trip. What remains missing in U.S. policy towards the Asia-Pacific is an economic architecture. Since the withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership in January 2017, the United States has abdicated its leadership. States are going along with the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) , but only to keep Washington…
African Union joins G20 as compromise statement agreed
Prime Minister Narendra Modi invited the African Union to join the G20 as a permanent member on Saturday in his opening remarks, calling on members to end a “global trust deficit.” “It is time for all of us to move together,” Modi said. Modi announced later in the day during the summit that negotiators had resolved deep differences over the wording on the war in Ukraine. “On the back of the hard work of all the teams, we have received consensus on the G20 Leaders Summit Declaration. I announce the adoption of this declaration,” Modi told the G20 leaders in New Delhi. China and Russia are known to be opposed to any joint statement that censures Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Despite widespread anticipation that this year’s summit would be a damp squib – perhaps resulting in no communique at all – the G20 appeared to be pushing back on China’s apparent lack of willingness to play ball with the developed world. The announcement of permanent inclusion of the 55-nation African Union (AU) is likely to be a blow for Chinese president Xi Jinping, who is not attending the summit for unknown reasons, and recently heralded the new membership of six countries in the BRICS grouping as “historic.” The AU’s young population of 1.3 billion is expected to double by 2050, when it will account for a quarter of the global population. It’s strategically important to both China, Africa’s largest trading partner and one of its largest lenders, and Russia, its leading arms provider. U.S. President Joe Biden listens to the opening remarks of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the first session of the G20 Summit, in New Delhi, India, Saturday, Sept. 9, 2023. Credit: Evan Vucci/Pool via Reuters Meanwhile, in what will likely be seen as a challenge to Xi’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), U.S. President Joe Biden, Modi and allies were reported to have plans to announce a rail and shipping corridor connecting India with the Middle East and ultimately Europe. The project would include the United States, India, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the European Union and other countries in the G20, the Associated Press reported Jon Finer, Biden’s principal deputy national security adviser, as saying. Biden, Modi and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen were to announce the project as part of the Partnership for Global Infrastructure Investment, with commentary speculating that it would enable greater trade and be an ambitious counter to China’s massive BRI, through which it has sought to invest and lend its way to making its economy better connected with the world. The moves on Saturday, which were roundly seen as pushback against China, came against a background of speculation as to why China’s Xi was not present and calls for Beijing to explain itself. “It’s incumbent upon the Chinese government to explain” why its leader “would or would not participate,” Jon Finer, the U.S. deputy national security adviser, told reporters in Delhi. He said there was speculation that China is “giving up on G20” in favor of groupings like BRICS, where it is dominant. Edited by Elaine Chan and Mike Firn.
Russia proposes joint naval drill with China, North Korea
Russia has formally proposed to China and North Korea for a joint naval drill in July, South Korea’s spies said on Monday – a move that could further escalate tensions in East Asia. “Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has made an official proposal for a trilateral naval drill to Kim Jong Un when he last visited North Korea,” Yoo Sang-beom, a lawmaker who was briefed by the nation’s spy agency, in the National Assembly, told reporters. The assessment by South Korea’s National Intelligence Service followed Shoigu’s visit to Pyongyang two months ago, which has raised suspicions that the two nations were looking to enhance their military cooperation including arms trading that would support Russia’s war with Ukraine. Washington issued a stern warning against North Korea last month regarding weapons transactions with Russia. The White House’s national security spokesperson John Kirby said the U.S. was concerned about potential arms deals between Russia and North Korea. While Pyongyang’s recent provocations have strengthened trilateral security cooperation among the U.S., South Korea and Japan, both China and Russia are defending North Korea on the international stage, with the North reciprocating this backing. The South Korean spies also saw North Korea’s missile launch Saturday as a response to the U.S.-South Korea joint drill, according to Yoo, hinting that authoritarian regimes in the world are seeking their own ways to counter military ties among democracies. North Korea launched two cruise missiles carrying mock nuclear warheads towards the West Sea of the Korean peninsula. The missiles traveled about 1,500 kilometers (932 miles) for more than two hours, before detonating at an altitude of 150 meters, the official Korean Central News Agency said. While firing cruise missiles isn’t prohibited by the U.N., they present a significant threat to U.S. troops stationed in South Korea. North Korea’s latest cruise missile launch marked only a partial success. The Intelligence Service confirmed that one of the two missiles launched on Saturday was unsuccessful. The partial success, however, hints at Pyongyang’s revamped strategy to integrate its conventional arsenal and tactical nuclear weapons to threaten allies. “It seems clear that they are thinking of a short-term war, if there is any, merging their conventional arsenal with tactical nuclear weapons,” Yoo said, citing the assessment of South Korea’s spy agency. He said the intelligence agents have emphasized North Korea’s inability to wage a long-term war, as the hermit state is strapped by an ongoing economic crisis. North Korea had imposed strict COVID restrictions in early 2020, shutting down its borders, including that with its biggest trading partner, China. The North Korean economy contracted for the third straight year in 2022, according to the Bank of Korea. COVID restrictions, compounded by international sanctions, are widely seen to have further depressed the North’s struggling economy. The South’s spies also reiterated the position that the agency has yet to draw any conclusion that Kim Ju Ae, Kim Jong Un’s daughter, will succeed her father as North Korea’s next leader. Kim Ju Ae was seen accompanying her father during the North’s Navy Day last week. It was her first public appearance since May 16, when she showed up for an on-site inspection of a preparatory committee related to the North’s attempt to launch a military spy satellite. The appearance was widely seen as a rare window of the regime’s motivations to familiarize the North Korean public with potential future leaders, a strategy that Pyongyang has employed for decades. Edited by Elaine Chan and Mike Firn.
IMF: China leads as global fossil fuel subsidies hit record $7 trillion
Global fossil fuel subsidies hit a record U.S.$7 trillion, equivalent to more than 7% of global gross domestic product in 2022, the International Monetary Fund said. The subsidies are financial support from governments that make fossil fuels like oil, gas, and coal cheaper to produce or buy. Subsidies for coal, oil and natural gas in 2022 represented more than world governments spent on education and two-thirds of what was spent on healthcare. According to the IMF report released Thursday, governments provided support to consumers and businesses during the surge in global energy prices, a consequence of Russia’s incursion into Ukraine and the economic rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic. The IMF’s report comes as the world witnesses its highest average monthly temperatures on record. When burned, fossil fuels emit harmful pollutants that contribute to global warming and intensify extreme weather events. They also contaminate the air with toxins, harming our respiratory systems and other vital organs and killing millions yearly. By fuel product, undercharging for oil products accounted for nearly half the subsidies, coal another 30%, and natural gas almost 20% (underpricing for electricity accounts for the remainder), the report said. By region, East Asia and the Pacific accounted for nearly half the global subsidy, according to the IMF. Meanwhile, by country, in absolute terms, China contributed by far the most to total subsidies ($2.2 trillion) in 2022, followed by the United States ($760 billion), Russia ($420 billion), India ($350 billion), and the European Union ($310 billion). Graphic showing yearly global fossil fuel subsidies. Credit: IMF The bulk of global subsidies accounted for in the study fall into what the IMF termed implicit subsidies, which arise when governments do not adequately charge for the environmental damage caused by the combustion of fossil fuels. Such damage encompasses air pollution and climate change, with the impact forecast to grow due to the rising consumption of fossil fuels by developing countries. The IMF said explicit subsidies, in which consumers pay less than the supply costs of fossil fuels, have tripled since 2020, from $0.5 trillion to $1.5 trillion in 2022. The figure is similar to the estimates from the Canada-based think tank, International Institute for Sustainable Development, released Wednesday, that said the world’s biggest economies, the G20, provided a record $1.4 trillion in public money for fossil fuels in 2022 despite the promise to reduce spending. That includes investments by state-owned enterprises and loans from public finance institutions. The G20 nations, which cause 80% of global carbon emissions, pledged to phase out “inefficient” fossil fuel subsidies in 2009. Comprehensively reforming fossil fuel prices by removing explicit fuel subsidies and imposing corrective taxes such as a carbon tax would reduce global carbon dioxide emissions by 43% below “business as usual” levels in 2030 (34% below 2019 levels) the IMF said. It added that this would be in line with keeping global warming to ‘well below’ 2 degrees Celsius and towards 1.5 degrees Celsius. “Underpricing fossil fuels implies that governments forgo a valuable source of much-needed revenue and undermines distributional and poverty reduction objectives since most of the benefits from undercharging accrue to wealthier households,” the IMF report said. “The gap between efficient and current fuel prices is often substantial given, not least, the damages from climate change and the large number of people dying prematurely from fossil fuel air pollution exposure (4.5 million a year).” The IMF said fuel price reform would avert about 1.6 million premature deaths yearly from local air pollution by 2030. Edited by Mike Firn and Taejun Kang.
Wagner head plane crash provokes discussion in China
Russia’s civil aviation agency said Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin was on an airplane that crashed near Moscow Wednesday. It has fueled a wave of online discussion in China, where some drew comparisons to the Chinese Communist Party’s not so distant past. No cause for the crash was provided, but Wagner-flagged Telegram accounts blamed Russian air defenses for shooting down the Embraer jet. Prigozhin’s death comes exactly two months – to the day – after the Wagner Group undertook an armed rebellion against the Russian Armed Forces, seizing control of a Russian military office in the city of Rostov-on-Don and briefly marching on Moscow. According to the Wagner Group, Prigozhin was among 10 people who lost their lives in the crash involving a private plane flying from Moscow to St. Petersburg that came down less than half an hour after taking off. The group posted what is believed to be a video of the crash on social media platforms, showing an airplane crashing and burning. They confirmed that Prigozhin had died, describing him as a hero and a patriot. They further claimed that he died at the hands of “Russian traitors.” Eyewitness footage of the crash site of a plane linked to Wagner Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, near Kuzhenkino, Tver region, Russia, August 23, 2023, in this screen grab taken from a video. Credit: Ostorozhno Novosti/Handout via Reuters Although the news broke in the middle of the night in China, keywords related to “Prigozhin” quickly trended on the social media app Weibo, which had 255 million daily users as of March of this year. Numerous bloggers also uploaded late-night videos discussing the implications of the Prigozhin incident. China’s earlier official response to Wagner Group’s brief mutiny was muted, with a Foreign Ministry statement on June 25 calling it “Russia’s internal affair,” adding that China “supports Russia in maintaining national stability.” But some experts interviewed by the state media outlet China Daily expressed concerns about the stability of China’s friend and neighbor. “The conflict between mercenaries and the Russian army is only the tip of the iceberg about the inherent contradictions in Russian society,” said Yu Sui, a professor at the China Center for Contemporary World Studies. Challenging the leadership Many online commentators remarked on the inherent risk of standing up to autocrats in what some of them dared to call “totalitarian” states. “Prigozhin, the head of the mercenaries, clearly didn’t understand politics. Didn’t he watch House of Cards? He made the mistake of rebelling against Putin,” blogger Yojia Fleet wrote. “Breaking news! Prigozhin’s private plane crashed north of Moscow. After offending Putin, he didn’t live long. As for the cause of his death, we can only speculate,” wrote another blogger who goes by the name of Wang Xiaodong Some Chinese netizens created polls such as “Who’s behind Prigozhin’s plane crash?” to attract attention and web traffic. Online comparisons were also made to the “Russian version of the Lin Biao incident,” a reference to a top leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and Chairman Mao Zedong’s chosen successor. In 1971, he is believed to have died when his plane nosedived into the grasslands of Outer Mongolia. China’s official line is that Lin planned to assassinate Mao and when his plot failed he tried to flee Beijing for Moscow, but with insufficient fuel to complete the flight. Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Chinese President Xi Jinping toast during their dinner in the Moscow Kremlin, Russia, March 21, 2023. CREDIT: Pavel Byrkin, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File Professor Yang Haiying of Japan’s Shizuoka University said the reason that online commentators were calling the incident the “Russian version of the Lin Biao incident” was because both China and Russia are dictatorships. “Chinese citizens are paying attention to this because of the close relationship between Xi and Putin. If anyone opposes Putin, their fate is sealed, just as if anyone opposes Xi, they might follow Lin Biao’s path,” said Yang. However, Hu Ping, honorary editor of the New York-based Beijing Spring magazine, said that the relationship between Prigozhin and Putin cannot be directly compared to that of Lin Biao and Mao Zedong. He added that Lin Biao’s accident was shocking all the same, and Prigozhin’s death was dramatic, sparking discussions online. “For the CCP, this isn’t politically sensitive because it’s an external event, but a dramatic one,” said Hu. “With the Chinese government supporting Russia in the war against Ukraine and Xi Jinping often comparing himself to Putin, these factors naturally lead to speculation.” Political commentator Wang Jian said that Chinese netizens were fascinated with the latest news because of China’s good relationship with Russia, but warned that government voices might use the news to make Chinese citizens even more afraid to challenge the government. “With issues like unemployment and dropping house prices, people are anxious,” said Wang. “The government is unpredictable. The focus of Chinese netizens on external events has decreased because of the economic downturn. But government online commentators might create an atmosphere that suggests disloyalty will lead to bad consequences.” Wang also alluded to the CCP’s complete grip on the military, saying it was unlikely that China could experience a mutiny similar to Russia’s. He added that Beijing won’t need to leverage the incident to strengthen control over the military. Edited by Mike Firn and Taejun Kang.
G20 spent a record $1.4 trillion on fossil fuels in 2022, report says
The world’s biggest economies, the G20, provided a record U.S.$1.4 trillion in public money for fossil fuels in 2022 despite the promise to reduce spending, a new study by a think tank said. “The 2022 energy price crisis, brought about by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has catapulted public financial support for fossil fuels to new levels,” said the International Institute for Sustainable Development, or IISD, in its analysis, Fanning the Flames, released on Wednesday. The amount is more than double the pre-pandemic and pre-energy crisis levels of 2019 and more than four times the annual average in the previous decade, the Canada-based organization said. When burned, fossil fuels emit harmful pollutants that contribute to global warming and intensify extreme weather events. They also contaminate the air with toxins, harming our respiratory systems and other vital organs and killing millions yearly. Of the funding, the largest share of $1 trillion was allocated as fossil fuel subsidies, while $322 billion was in the form of state-owned enterprise investments and an additional $50 billion as public financial institution loans. “While much of this was support for consumers, around one-third ($440 billion) was driving investment in new fossil fuel production,” the report said, adding such support “perpetuates the world’s reliance on fossil fuels, paving the way for yet more energy crises due to market volatility and geopolitical security risks.” “These figures are a stark reminder of the massive amounts of public money G20 governments continue to pour into fossil fuels – despite the increasingly devastating impacts of climate change,” said Tara Laan, a senior associate with the IISD and lead author of the study. The IISD said the increase in investment is against the expressed pledge in the 2015 Paris Agreement and such continued investments in fossil fuels greatly hinder the chances of meeting the climate targets, as they promote greenhouse gas emissions and diminish the cost-effectiveness of renewable energy. It said that G20 nations should redirect their financial investments from fossil fuels to targeted, sustainable support for social protection and the expansion of renewable energy. This aerial photo taken on Nov. 28, 2022 shows a cargo ship loaded with coal berthing at a port in Lianyungang, in China’s eastern Jiangsu province. Credit: AFP The report comes just ahead of the pivotal G20 leaders’ conference scheduled in New Delhi on Sept. 9-10, where discussions on climate change consensus are anticipated. The meeting could set the tone for the UN’s COP28 climate change conference in Dubai in November. The report lauded the achievement of G20 chair India as it reduced its fossil fuel subsidies by 76% from 2014 to 2022 while significantly increasing support for clean energy. The IISD urged G20 leaders to eliminate fossil fuel subsidies in developed nations by 2025 and in all other countries by 2030. The world leaders had agreed to phase out “inefficient” fossil fuel subsidies at the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow two years ago. “International public financing for fossil fuels has decreased in recent years but is still nearly four times greater than support for clean energy,” the report said, adding it came in the form of international aid, export credit support, and concessional financing, such as equity, grants, loans, and loan guarantees. China is among the top four largest providers of international public finance for fossil fuels in absolute dollar terms, providing $6.7 billion annually between 2019 and 2021. Japan provided $10.6 billion, while Canada provided $8.5 billion. South Korea came in third with a $7.3 billion investment. The most common fuels supported were oil and gas at 88%. The report also noted that G20 countries announced more than a quarter trillion dollars in subsidies for renewable power generation between 2020 and June 2023, with the United States, Germany and China leading the chart. “While positive, the renewable subsidies are dwarfed by subsidies for fossil fuels, which were over USD 1.4 trillion in the three years from 2020 to 2022,” the report said. The IISD also said while global investment in renewable energy reached a record high of $500 billion in 2022, it was still only around half of the investment in fossil fuels. Edited by Mike Firn and Taejun Kang.
