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Category: East Asia
Kim Jong Un’s sister ‘not to be underestimated,’ author says
North Korea’s next global “charm offensive” will be led by leader Kim Jong Un’s younger sister, Kim Yo Jong, who is the strategic mastermind in Pyongyang and could eventually succeed her brother in power. At least that’s according to Sung-Yoon Lee, a North Korea expert and fellow at the Wilson Center who late last year released a 304-page biography about the woman he calls “the brains” behind the despotic rule of her brother, a man he says is more interested in basketball. “She is really the mastermind of this family campaign to expand their influence over South Korea and beyond,” Lee said at a book-signing event hosted by the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea at DACOR Bacon House in Washington, D.C., on Thursday morning. Lee told the gathering that his book, titled “The Sister: North Korea’s Kim Yo Jong, the Most Dangerous Woman in the World,” was years in the making, with his interest piqued by her attendance at her father’s funeral in 2011, when the world knew little about her or her brother. Even though in Korea, the “proper way to express your sorrow is to really overdo it, to exaggerate and wail away almost deliriously,” Lee said, noting there was an added incentive to do so in the North, Kim Yo Jong “showed genuine, profound sadness” but otherwise felt no need to go further, even when the cameras were trained on her face. Sung-Yoon Lee, left, speaks alongside Committee for Human Rights in North Korea Executive Director Greg Scarlatoiu at an event at DACOR Bacon House in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 25, 2024. (Alex Willemyns/RFA) In the years that followed, he said, her always perfectly upright posture, “Mona Lisa smile” and “imperious” demeanor when appearing in public made him more curious about her role leading the hermit kingdom. “Unfortunately, I see in her eyes a sparkle – intelligence,” he said. “I saw that in Kim Jong Il, too, and in Kim Il Sung, the state founder. They were intelligent; they were not crazy, in the conventional sense.” “I don’t see that sparkle in Kim Jong Un,” he added. Winter Olympics The wider world first got to know Kim Yo Jong, believed to be 37 years old, at the February 2018 Winter Olympics in the South Korean city of PyeongChang, which took place in the lead-up to then-U.S. President Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un’s first meeting in June 2018. With South and North Korea fielding a united team, Kim Yo Jong was invited to the south to represent Pyongyang in meetings with then-South Korean President Moon Jae-In and to attend the games. After arriving at Incheon airport “not showing any bit of excitement or happiness that she was there … [almost] as if she had walked into her own living room,” she later attended the games’ opening ceremony, where she was seated directly behind Moon and U.S. Vice President Mike Pence, who famously chose to “ignore” her presence behind him. “Throughout the evening, from certain camera angles, it seemed she was lording it over Mike Pence, seated right behind,” Lee said, adding that the visual was sought by North Korea for propaganda reasons. “Later, I learned that this was not an accident,” he said. “Kim Yo Jong had insisted that she be seated behind them – above President Moon and Vice President Pence – or else ‘We go back home.’” “So accommodations were made,” he explained. The Sister: North Korea’s Kim Yo Jong, the Most Dangerous Woman in the World by Sung-Yoon Lee is about Kim Jong Un’s increasingly powerful sister, tapped to be his successor to lead North Korea. (Courtesy of PublicAffairs) The next day, Kim Yo Jong visited Moon at his offices in Seoul and for a short while became “a star” on the world stage, with many seemingly enchanted by the sudden emergence of a female North Korean leader. More importantly, after months of escalating provocations between her brother and Trump, her message of peace and reconciliation seemed to resonate as more sincere than if it had come from Kim Jong Un. ‘Don’t trust her’ Lee says that is a mistake he hopes to shatter with his biography, arguing Kim Yo Jong will be wheeled out as the friendly face of the North’s global outreach when it once again tries to appear open to compromise. He called for the world not to be fooled. “She is the No. 2 official in arguably the world’s most tyrannical regime,” he added. “What she says, no matter how sweet it may sound, must be questioned and cannot be accepted at face value.” A switch back to diplomatic niceties after the ongoing round of provocations is as predictable as the plot to Rambo 4, Lee said, noting that “[Rambo] First Blood was a good movie, but by the time you’ve seen Rambo 4, you have a pretty good idea how the movie ends.” As the true director of North Korea’s propaganda department since 2012, he said, Kim Yo Jong was a skilled political operator, and would be even more at ease on the world stage her second time around. Kim Yo Jong, right, shakes hands with South Korea’s director of the National Security Office, Chung Eui-yong, June 12, 2019 as she delivers a condolence message in Panmunjom in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) from her brother to the family of former South Korean first lady Lee He-ho, who passed away. (Korean Central News Agency/AFP) “People will want to believe in her message, and perhaps even share in the credit that she seeks peace and denuclearization,” Lee said. “Don’t trust her. Don’t believe everything she says. Don’t patronize her.” “She’s not to be underestimated,” he said. Eventually, Kim Yo Jong may position herself to take over the reins from her brother, even if the current leader’s daughter, Kim Ju Ae, born in 2013, has been slated as the heir apparent in Pyongyang. “When [Ju Ae] is in her mid-20s, and comes to view her auntie as expendable, cumbersome…
US urges China to push Iran to pressure Houthis over Red Sea attacks
U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has asked Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to use Beijing’s influence on Iran to push it to stop the Houthis in Yemen from attacking Red Sea trade routes. The appeal came during two days of meetings in Bangkok between the pair, according to a senior Biden administration official who spoke on condition of anonymity according to rules set by the White House. Over 12 hours, the pair also discussed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Myanmar’s civil war, North Korea, Israel’s war with Hamas, the South China Sea, fentanyl and artificial intelligence, the official said. It was their first meeting since Oct. 26, when Wang visited Washington in the run-up to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s trip to San Francisco in November for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, during which he also held direct talks with U.S. President Joe Biden. The official said the meeting was meant to build on the commitments made during that summit, including to reinstate military-to-military talks and to stem illicit Chinese exports of precursors for fentanyl, which has been called a leading cause of death for American adults. A working group on counternarcotics would be established on Tuesday and both Military-Maritime Consultative Agreement Meetings and talks about regulating artificial intelligence would be held in the Spring. “The two sides are committed to continuing these strategic channels of communication,” the official said, adding there would be “a telephone call between the two leaders at some point in the coming months.” Diplomatic telephone On the apparently widening conflict in the Middle East that began with the attack on Israel by Hamas on Oct. 7, the White House official said Sullivan had pressed Wang to use Beijing’s influence on Iran to push it to end attacks by Houthis on trade ships transiting the Red Sea. The Houthis’ latest attack took place Friday and this time directly targeted a U.S. warship, the USS Carney, which was patrolling the area to try to prevent further attacks in the lucrative trade route. Both Hamas and the Houthis have been labeled “proxies” of Iran by the United States, with Tehran not viewed as having direct control of either group but being accused of funding and training both. The Houthis, meanwhile, are accused of targeting trade ships off Yemen’s coast in response to Israel’s invasion of Hamas-controlled Gaza. As a major trading nation, China had its own interests in stopping the attacks on the Red Sea route and had the ability to pressure Iran as one of the biggest buyers of its oil, the White House official said. “We would characterize both the economic and trade relationship as giving Beijing leverage over Iran to some extent. How they choose to use that, of course, is China’s choice,” the official said. “Iran’s influence over the Houthis, and the Houthis’ destabilization of global shipping, raises serious concerns not just for the U.S. and China but for global trade,” they added. “There should be a clear interest in China in trying to quiet some of those attacks.” The civil war in Myanmar was also discussed by Sullivan and Wang, building off talks between Sullivan and Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin on Friday, during which the official said Sullivan “stressed the importance” of getting humanitarian aid into Myanmar. However, the official said the United States was less hopeful about China’s assistance in pushing North Korea to end its growing nuclear weapons program or its recent provision of ballistic missiles to Russia. “I’m not sure I would characterize anything recently as constructive,” the official said, adding the United States still hoped China would come round to helping “bring us back to the path of denuclearization.”
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US national security advisor to meet Chinese Foreign Minister in Bangkok
U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and China’s foreign minister Wang Yi are set to meet in Bangkok Friday and Saturday to build on a pledge to deepen their dialogue, despite the two superpowers’ differences on Taiwan. This meeting will be the first high-level talk between the two nations since the U.S. President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping met in the United States in November. “During the new round of meetings, (Wang) will state China’s position on China-U.S. relations, including the Taiwan issue, and exchange views with the U.S. side on international and regional issues of common interest,” a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson told reporters at a regular press conference on Friday. Upon his arrival in Thailand’s capital Friday, Sullivan first met with Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin and Foreign Minister Parnpree Bahiddha-nukara and discussed ties between the two nations as well as regional and global issues, including efforts to address the worsening crisis in Myanmar. During the meeting, Sullivan emphasized “U.S. commitment to expanding collaboration on trade and investment, accelerating the transition to a clean energy future, deepening the two nations’ people-to-people ties, and broadening our security cooperation as we promote a free and open Indo-Pacific,” according to a White House statement. Thailand’s Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, left, talks with U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan at the government house in Bangkok, Thailand, Friday, Jan. 26, 2024. (Government Spokesman Office via AP) Thailand, one of the U.S.’s major non-NATO allies and geographically important to the region, however, reaffirmed its non-interference approach. On the China-Taiwan issue, for instance, the Thai side reiterated before the meeting its “vision on Thai-Chinese relations, based on Thailand’s One China policy as well as common interests and international principles that the two countries adhere to, towards the building of a Thailand-China community with a shared future for enhanced stability, prosperity and sustainability.” Regarding planned talks between Sullivan and Wang, a Thai foreign ministry spokesperson said: “The meeting is actually arranged bilaterally between the two sides. We did not have any role in organizing for the meeting or anything but we are pleased that Thailand is the venue for such a meeting.” “And we are confident that the dialogue between the two sides will contribute to peace and security and development of the countries in the regions also at the global stage as well.” Dr. Isa Gharti, a public policy researcher at Chiang Mai University, believes the meeting between Sullivan and Wang stresses Thailand’s strategic position as the middleman for the super powers. “The country has a long history of balancing its relationship with China and the U.S., which is appropriate for it to be the host,” Gharti told Radio Free Asia. “The role as a facilitator to solve high-level conflict is a positive thing for the Srettha administration,” he added, referring to the current prime minister’s government. Thailand and China will celebrate 50 years of diplomatic ties in 2025, marking 190 years of their relationship. Edited by Taejun Kang and Mike Firn.
Military battalion camp seized by Kachin rebels in Myanmar’s Shan state
An ethnic army has captured the military camp of the junta’s Light Infantry Battalion No. 123 in northern Myanmar’s Shan state, residents and the rebel group said Thursday, capping months of fighting for control of a key trade route with China. The loss of the base means that ethnic rebels now control the entire 130-kilometer (80-mile) trade route from Muse township on the border with China to Hseni, located some 50 kilometers (30 miles) north of northern Shan state’s largest town of Lashio. It is also the latest in a number of setbacks for the military since an ethnic offensive in late October that has seen the Three Brotherhood Alliance capture 15 cities in northern Shan state, seize control of more than 200 military camps, and force the surrender of some 4,000 junta troops. The Kachin Independence Army, or KIA, took control of the camp on Wednesday evening after initially overrunning Nam Hpat Kar town on Jan. 17, KIA spokesman Col. Naw Bu told RFA Burmese. “We heard that the military camp at Nam Hpat Kar was seized around 3 p.m. or 4 p.m., but we haven’t received any details from the field yet,” he said. “We haven’t been able to get a phone connection through.” A resident of Nam Hpat Kar who, like others interviewed for this report, spoke on condition of anonymity due to security concerns, told RFA that KIA soldiers entered the military compound on Wednesday, prompting junta troops to flee toward nearby Tarmoenye township. “I’m sure the KIA troops are now stationed at Light Infantry Battalion No. 123 camp,” he said. “Since the troops retreated toward Tarmoenye, they are following them and clearing them out. The damage to the village is huge.” Ethnic rebels began attacking Nam Hpat Kar township in late August, but the KIA only started the fight for control of the Light Infantry Battalion camp on Jan. 14. Junta forces responded to attacks on the camp with heavy artillery and airstrikes, residents said. The KIA claimed on Jan. 16 that it was able to shoot down a junta jet fighter during fighting in the area. Civilian casualties Another resident of Nam Hpat Kar, who was forced to leave his home amid the fighting, told RFA that the military airstrikes destroyed area homes and caused civilian casualties. “The [KIA] also broke into the houses and fired from inside of them, so the military attacked the houses based on information they received,” he said. “At the moment, out of the eight houses I know [were fired on], four were reduced to ashes. The rest of the houses no longer have walls or roofs.” The resident said at least two civilians were killed in the fighting, but was unable to provide additional details. He said villagers are afraid to return home because of the threat of additional airstrikes. More than 20,000 people live in Nam Hpat Kar, which consists of four wards and nine village tracts. Aid workers said that some 10,000 residents of villagers close to the military camp were forced to flee to monasteries in the townships of Namhkan, Muse, Lashio and other nearby areas amid the clashes. Another resident of Nam Hpat Kar told RFA that, as of Jan. 17, he had documented the deaths of at least 24 civilians due to military airstrikes and artillery fire, and said at least 100 homes had been damaged. The KIA claims to have downed a junta jet fighter during the Nam Hpat Kar battle. On Jan. 25, 2024 an image of the downed jet from the Battle of Nam Hpat Kar was released. (Provided by Citizen Journalist) A social worker who fled from Nam Hpat Kar due to the fighting said on Thursday that the number of casualties and extent of the damage had yet to be fully accounted for, due to severed internet and telephone lines. The junta has not released any statement about the situation in Nam Hpat Kar. KIA demonstrates importance A former military officer, who now works as a commentator on military and political issues in Myanmar, said that the capture of the camp in Nam Hpat Kar is a demonstration of the junta’s increasing weakness in the region. “The attack took 10 days, and we should praise the bravery [of the junta troops] who resisted it,” he said. But he criticized the military’s leadership for failing to do enough to hold the camp. “[Nearby] Kutkai and Namhkan [townships were] seized by the [Ta’ang National Liberation Army],” the former officer said, referring to one of the three ethnic armies that, along with the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Arakan Army, form the Three Brotherhood Alliance. “Now, Nam Hpat Kar, which is located at the top of the road heading to Namhkan, has been captured. So now it is all done, and [the KIA] has demonstrated the importance of its role [in fighting the military],” he said. In the five months of fighting between ethnic armies and the junta for Nam Hpat Kar, more than 50 civilians – including women and children – were killed, according to residents. Translated by Htin Aung Kyaw. Edited by Joshua Lipes and Matt Reed.
China unlikely to invade Taiwan in next 5 years: survey
China is unlikely to invade Taiwan in the next five years, a survey released this week showed. But Beijing is capable of executing “a law enforcement-led quarantine and a People’s Liberation Army (PLA)-led blockade of Taiwan,” according to experts who took part in a survey by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released on Monday. A quarantine to substantially reduce trade into, and communications with, Taiwan would put significant pressure on the island and could serve as the prelude to a blockade by the PLA or a full-on amphibious invasion, said the experts. The new poll – “Surveying the Experts: U.S. and Taiwan Views on China’s Approach to Taiwan” – was released by the CSIS’s China Power Project just after Taiwan elected its new president, Lai Ching-te. It was conducted from Nov. 28 to Dec. 15, 2023 – before the presidential poll – with the participation of 87 experts, 52 from the U.S. and 35 from Taiwan, all leading academics or former officials. Invasion unlikely Responding experts said that in the next five years, “if China seeks to coerce Taiwan, Beijing’s most likely course of action would be a law enforcement-led quarantine of Taiwan.” But “if China’s goal is to force immediate unification of Taiwan, a PLA-led highly kinetic joint blockade” is the most likely scenario, according to 80% of respondents. Without U.S. intervention, most experts did not believe Taiwan could resist a blockade for more than three months. Just 26% of U.S. respondents and 17% of Taiwanese respondents agreed that China has the military capability to effectively launch an amphibious invasion of Taiwan within the next five years. The rest had much lower confidence in China’s ability as such invasion would require “a much larger commitment of military forces than a quarantine or blockade, and the operations involved would be significantly more complicated.” Soldiers at the 2nd Battalion of the Taiwanese army’s 58th Artillery Command conduct an exercise in Jan. 2024. (Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense) Taiwanese experts seemed to have a lower perception of the China threat compared to U.S. experts – only 51% of them believed that China could sustain a high-intensity conflict for more than a year versus 71% of American respondents. Among U.S. experts, 44% believed China would be willing to detonate nuclear weapons against U.S. or coalition forces during a Taiwan conflict, but only 11% of Taiwanese experts thought the same. U.S. support While virtually all U.S. respondents were confident that their country would intervene militarily in the case of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, 9% of Taiwanese respondents said they were not confident. And 11% of Taiwanese experts were not confident that the U.S. would intervene if China conducted a joint sea and air blockade of Taiwan. Some 63% of U.S. experts believed that America would step in against a quarantine of Taiwan, but only 40% of their Taiwanese peers thought so. The survey’s authors explained that these lower levels of confidence stemmed from various factors, the first of which was that “U.S. support for Taiwan is conditional.” “The goal of U.S. policy toward Taiwan has long been to avoid moves by either side of the Taiwan Strait to unilaterally shift the status quo,” they said, “and if Taiwan’s actions precipitate a conflict, the United States may be disinclined to intervene.” The second factor lies in China’s campaign of misinformation and disinformation in Taiwan about U.S. willingness to support Taipei. “These efforts are aimed at causing the Taiwan public to lose hope and feel that unification is their only option,” the survey authors said. Beijing, on the other hand, “has little doubt that Washington would defend Taiwan,” they added. Edited by Taejun Kang and Mike Firn.
North Korea urges mothers to snitch on their kids who watch South Korean media
North Korea is asking mothers to snitch on their kids who steal government property and watch illegal media, promising forgiveness if they report their actions to authorities, residents in the country told Radio Free Asia. The request came during the country’s national meeting for mothers, held from Dec. 3-5, the fifth ever meeting of its kind and first in 11 years. Speakers at the meeting emphasized that mothers must strengthen family education and do their part to eradicate anti-socialist elements. In January, people who attended the national meeting were obliged to provide lectures organized by the Socialist Women’s Union of Korea, the country’s premier women’s organization. The message of forgiveness was relayed to the mothers during these lectures, sources said. In the city of Anju in the western province of South Pyongan, attendees to the lecture were surprised that it was an ordinary woman who spoke to them rather than an official, a resident there told RFA Korean. “This is the first time that an ordinary member of the Women’s Union gave a lecture,” she said, adding that the speaker told them the usual messages of respecting their husbands and having lots of children. “The lecturer said that it is important for mothers to educate their children to eliminate anti-socialism,” she said. “If their children have committed a crime, such as watching South Korean movies or stealing state property, mothers should voluntarily report it to the judicial authorities and receive forgiveness.” Serious crime Stealing from government supplies and watching illegal media are serious crimes in North Korea, with violators punished harshly, sometimes even with public executions. Last year RFA reported that parents would take the rap if their kids were caught watching foreign media, but now authorities appear to be asking moms to tell on their kids. At the lecture held in Tongrim county, in the northwestern province of North Pyongan, the speaker took it a step further, saying that mothers should police how their kids dress and forbid them from dancing in a certain way, a resident there told RFA. “The lecturer said that educating our children is important to eliminate the trends of unusual clothing and dancing that has recently appeared among young people,” she said. “If mothers voluntarily reported their children who took drugs at home, indulged in exotic cultures, or committed social crimes, the authorities would take responsibility, educate them, and not charge them with any crime.” But many in attendance were not buying it. “Women responded to the lecture about reporting their children to the judicial authorities with astonishment,” she said, “saying mothers are now being used as a means of controlling young people.” Translated by Claire S. Lee. Edited by Eugene Whong. Photo in folder ENG_KOR_MothersMeeting_01222024People listen as North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un speaks at the 5th National Meeting of Mothers in Pyongyang, Dec. 4, 2023. (KCNA via REUTERS)
N Korea asserts military commitment amid underwater nuclear test doubts
North Korea has reiterated its dedication to enhancing its military prowess on the global stage as South Korea has suggested that Pyongyang’s claim about testing underwater nuclear weapons might be “exaggerated” and “fabricated.” “There is a widespread dominance of coercion and unilateral actions driven by the logic of power, which severely encroaches upon the sovereignty and survival rights of nations advocating for self-determination and independence,” said Kim Son Gyong, North Korea’s deputy minister of foreign affairs, as cited by the North’s state-run Korean Central News Agency on Monday. Speaking at the Non-Aligned Movement summit in Uganda last week, the deputy minister justified Pyongyang’s continued pursuit of military advancement, including its nuclear program. “The situation where the sovereignty, autonomy, survival, and development rights of sovereign nations are under severe threat is particularly evident on the Korean Peninsula,” said Kim. “As provocations from our adversaries increase, there is a continuous need to build an overwhelmingly strong military preparedness, capable of deterring any form of provocation or action, and being fully and thoroughly prepared.” Such remarks came as North Korea said Friday it had carried out a test of an underwater nuclear weapons system, claiming it was facing severe security threats from the allies. The North’s Underwater Weapon System Institute tested the “Haeil-5-23,” its underwater nuclear system involving drones, its Ministry of National Defence claimed. Submarine-launched weapons can be deployed covertly, often evading the allies’ detection systems, potentially offering Pyongyang a more elusive means of deploying its nuclear weapons. South Korea on Sunday, however, raised the possibility that the claim might have been exaggerated and fabricated. “There is a possibility that North Korea’s claims may have been exaggerated and fabricated, based on our comprehensive analysis up until today,” South Korea’s Presidential Office said in a statement. “If indeed a test had taken place, it is presumed to have involved some form of torpedo, and the likelihood of it being a nuclear-powered system is highly improbable. “There are no instances of developing a small nuclear reactor suitable for a torpedo with a diameter of less than 1 meter.” Amid the tensions, North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un pledged last week to amend the country’s constitution to declare Seoul as Pyongyang’s “primary and immutable enemy.” Edited by Taejun Kang Elaine Chan.
Bhutan ‘open for business’ as voters choose former PM Tobgay to rebuild economy
“Bhutan is open for business,” wrote Prime Minister-elect Tshering Tobgay on X, after the people of the tiny Himalayan kingdom returned him to power in parliamentary elections this month. Analysts say Tobgay’s two-thirds majority win indicates the 800,000 people of Bhutan are pinning their hopes on an experienced hand to rebuild the economy, reverse an ongoing migration crisis, and strengthen ties with the landlocked nation’s two neighbors, India and Tibet, amidst ongoing border negotiations with China. The victory by Harvard-educated conservation advocate Tobgay, 58 – who served as Bhutan’s second democratically elected prime minister between 2013 and 2018 – comes as the country faces “unprecedented challenges” that are prompting it to tailor its famed “Gross National Happiness”(GNH) policy to one that takes into account its economic needs. Tobgay’s People’s Democratic Party (PDP) – which promised to leverage GNH in its efforts to turn Bhutan into a developed nation – won 30 of the 47 National Assembly seats, while its rival Bhutan Tendrel Party (BTP) won the remaining 17 seats in Bhutan’s fourth general elections since its 2008 transition from an from an absolute to a constitutional monarchy, with a bicameral elected parliament. Bhutan’s Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay with his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi before their meeting at Hyderabad House in New Delhi, India, July 6, 2018. (Altaf Hussain/Reuters) Bhutan’s GNH index was first conceptualized in 1972 by the King Jigme Singye Wangchuk as a “holistic approach” to sustainable development and a more important measure of growth than gross domestic product. Since then, the country’s leaders have promoted and the model — which emphasizes good governance, sustainable development, cultural preservation and promotion, and environmental conservation — widely regarded as Bhutan’s soft power export to the world. However, concerns about the economy and record high youth unemployment levels of 28.6%, which have forced young Bhutanese to emigrate in large numbers for better job opportunities, have weighed on this election, with both parties citing economic growth as a key priority. The PDP has said it believes that “…GNH should continue to be the springboard to enhance peace, prosperity, and happiness for all Bhutanese in our collective journey to become a developed nation.” “The PDP has the experience of having worked as the opposition in the first democratic government and as the ruling party in the second. So, it has exposure to different aspects of governance,” said Dasho Kunzang Wangdi, Bhutan’s former chief election commissioner, who set up and ran the country’s first democratic elections in 2008. “We are hopeful their efforts will be geared towards not only reviving but also giving an added fillip to economic growth and balancing that with the need to ensure the general well-being of the people of Bhutan,” he added. Balancing happiness and growth Tobgay – who detailed an ambitious 12-point economic transformation plan to turn Bhutan into a developed nation by 2047 – is expected to lead the implementation of a 15 billion ngultrum (US$181 million) economic stimulus plan and drive initiatives to attract foreign direct investment, improve ease of doing business, and boost export and tourism levels. “Our nation’s economy is teetering on the brink of collapse. With an average growth rate of just 1.7% in the past five years, our economy is at its worst in our recent history,” said Tobgay in his party’s manifesto, titled ‘A Contract with Bhutan.’ “The next five years are crucial for us to rebuild – get our economy back on track, enable private businesses to thrive, increase job opportunities, revitalize our education and healthcare systems, uplift the poor, empower our public servants, transform agriculture, and boost national revenue generation,” Tobgay added. He also plans to accelerate Bhutan’s hydropower and renewable energy generation, while bolstering the country’s private sector through the establishment of special economic zones and the privatization and divestmens of state-owned enterprises to boost capital markets. Tobgay’s office did not immediately respond to Radio Free Asia’s request for comment on his program. A Bhutanese man looks at posters of candidates on the eve of polling to the upper house National Council in Samdrup Jonkhar, Bhutan, April 22, 2013. Bhutan ended more than a century of absolute monarchy with its first parliamentary elections in 2008. (Anupam Nath/AP) Tobgay’s approach represents “a pragmatic tailoring of the GNH concept to what the world needs today,” Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy, an associate fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, a Washington, D.C. think tank. “Bhutan knows that it cannot be isolated from the rest of the world and the rest of the economy, and that’s why this whole special economic zone has been proposed. And I think that is a classic example of how Bhutan tailors its GNH concept with its economic growth and economic need,” he told Radio Free Asia. Bhutan has been gradually boosting the communications and information technology sector since the early 2010s, and the move to set up the SEZs intends to draw investment and sustainable development through service-intensive projects such as resorts and IT parks, rather than industrial projects, Shivamurthy said. “There’s a massive expectation from the new government. I think people have voted for this new government for the very reason that they know this party… and expect that this experienced party will offer them solutions rather than a new party coming in and trying to start from scratch,” he added. Namgay Pem, a Bhutanese citizen who cast her vote at the Lingmu-Toedwang Constituency in Punakha District, one of the 20 dzongkhags or districts comprising Bhutan, echoed that sentiment. “The interventions that the government brings in should not compromise the happiness and well-being of the citizens, and that GNH, which is the main philosophy, should guide all the developmental and economic developments in the country,” she said. Relations with India and China The election was closely watched by India, against the backdrop of Bhutan’s ongoing border negotiations with China – an issue of strategic concern for India, which has faced border disputes and skirmishes with its northern neighbor. In October, Bhutanese Foreign Minister Dr Tandi Dorji visited…
The Myanmar military’s air superiority is slipping away amid sanctions and opposition attacks
One of the most important setbacks for Myanmar’s military since an opposition alliance launched Operation 1027 last October has been the loss of three different aircraft: two jet trainers and an Mi-17 heavy-lift helicopter. An Mi-35 attack helicopter was also lost in 2023. The Myanmar military should have total air superiority. For the first two years of the conflict, the opposition National Unity Government’s (NUG) best air defense was doxing Air Force pilots – publishing their addresses, as part of an assassination campaign. Gradually, the NUG’s People’s Defense Force militias began to erode the junta’s air superiority by effectively deploying armed drones. Significantly, we’re now seeing Ethnic Resistance Organizations (EROs) begin to deploy air defenses, at a time when the junta has become even more dependent on air attacks. That increased tempo of operations requires more maintenance on overworked airframes. Fighters of anti-junta Mandalay People’s Defense Forces prepare a drone with an explosive-drop amid clashes with Myanmar junta forces in northern Shan State, Dec. 11, 2023. These military junta losses matter for three reasons. First, while not small by regional standards, the Myanmar Air Force (MAF) certainly does not have excess capacity. At the top end, it has some 31 SU-29s and four recently delivered SU-30s from Russia. The recently delivered seven JF-17s multi-role fighters, jointly produced by China and Pakistan, are reportedly already grounded due to cracks in their airframes and other maintenance issues. Airworthiness questions On paper, Myanmar has approximately 40 other jet fighters, but these are old, Chinese-produced knock-off Russian jets from the 1990s. They are well beyond their service life. The MAF is thought to have 20 Nanchang Q-5s, the Chinese version of the MiG-19, down from the 36 it imported from 1994-2001. It also has some 21 Chengdu J-7s, a Chinese produced MiG-21. That’s down from some 60 that it had purchased from 1990-1999. It’s unclear how many of these fighters are still airworthy. Myanmar’s military has relied on its 18 Russian-built Yak-130 trainers for much of its combat operations. Since the February 2021 coup, Myanmar has taken delivery of some six Guizhou JL-9 jet trainers, referred to as FTC-2000G, which have a spotty performance and safety record. A fighter of anti-junta Mandalay People’s Defense Forces pilots a drone near the frontline amid clashes with Myanmar junta forces in northern Shan State, Dec.11, 2023. (AFP Photo) The MAF also flies an unknown number of Chinese K-8 trainers that can be used for ground support. Second, we should also assume that given sanctions on the Singapore-based companies that have been the key importers of spare parts, the overall lack of foreign exchange available to the junta, and other supply chain issues, including those caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine, that around 20% of the aircraft are probably not operational. In December 2023, the sanctioned director of Sky Aviator and two others were caught trying to smuggle 508,925 Singapore dollars (US $382,380) in cash out of that city-state. Sky Aviator, which has an office in Singapore, had a large contract to purchase spare parts for the air force. Another sanctioned firm, Sky Royal Hero Company Limited, has the contract for the maintenance and spare parts for servicing the Russian jet fighters. For nearly three years, the MAF has been flying at increased tempos without the scheduled maintenance they require. Airstrikes ramping up The military’s promised counter offensive has not materialized. Over 4,000 troops have surrendered since Operation 1027 began, and well-documented recruitment issues mean the military does not have a sufficient number of troops to launch ground offensives across the multiple battle zones, which has forced them to rely on long range artillery and air strikes. An independent research firm documented 336 airstrikes in December 2023, alone, with nearly half against the Three Brotherhood Alliance, the group of ethnic armies behind Operation 1027.. The loss of one of their 12 already over-taxed heavy lift helicopters is another important setback for the military’s counter-offensive. One of their tactical advantages has been air mobility and resupply, especially given their loss of key roads. Although the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) claims to have shot down the Guizhou JL-9/FTC-2000G on Jan. 17, there is little evidence to support this, Video footage that shows the plane falling from the sky, without smoke or any other sign of hostile fire, indicates likely engine failure. Myanmar Air Force Jet fighters drop bombs during military exercises in Ayeyarwady delta region, Feb. 2, 2018. (Lynn Bo Bo/Pool via AP) That leads to the third implication: The MAF is losing aircraft to hostile fire. While the military claims that it was a technical malfunction that brought down a K-8 trainer, Karenni forces claim to have shot it down. The KIA claims to have shot down an Mi-17 transport helicopter, killing all six crew members on Jan. 3. Both helicopters and the trainers, especially when they are being used for ground attacks, are vulnerable to small arms fire. Eyes on Beijing But these developments also beg the question: What weapons are being used to down the aircraft? The only ethnic armed group that is known to have shoulder-launched surface-to-air missiles (known as MANPADs) is the United Wa State Army (UWSA). Until very recently, the UWSA has sat out the conflict, neither supporting the junta nor joining the NUG. It recently declared its neutrality in the Three Brotherhood Alliance’s Operation 1027, though it did receive two townships from them. A man looks on at homes destroyed after air and artillery strikes in Mung Lai Hkyet displacement camp in northern Kachin state, Oct. 10, 2023. (AP Photo) Though the UWSA has quietly sold weapons to other ethnic armies and the NUG, it has, to date, refrained from selling MANPADs. Has that changed? And if so, why now? It was long believed that they would not sell the weapons for fear of angering China. So did China approve the transfer, or are the groups now willing to incur Beijing’s wrath? The KIA claims that they shot down the Mi-17…
