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Category: ASEAN

Foreign ministers wield new brooms in Cambodia and Thailand

Editor013 mins

Shortly after being appointed Thailand’s new foreign minister in early September, Parnpree Bahiddha-Nukara made a telling remark: “We want the Thai people to feel that the foreign ministry is contributing to their lives.”  Sok Chenda Sophea, Cambodia’s new foreign minister, appointed a few days before Parnpree, told his new ambassadors: “All of you should work to represent the nation and enhance the Kingdom’s prestige, especially in areas like diplomacy, economics, food, sports and the arts. These are the focus of the new government’s foreign policy.” The two new foreign ministers bear a striking resemblance. Neither are career diplomats. Parnpree, whose father and grandfather were prominent in the foreign ministry, instead rose through the ranks of the commerce ministry under the Shinawatra sibling’s governments and then became chairman of the state oil company PTT.  Thailand’s Foreign Minister Parnpree Bahiddha-Nukara arrives at the government house in Bangkok, Thailand, Sept. 5, 2023, to take his oath of office. Credit: Sakchai Lalit/AP Sok Chenda cut his teeth in the tourism ministry in the 1990s. Parnpree served as chairman of the Thailand Board of Investment. Sok Chenda was head of the Council for the Development of Cambodia, the country’s investment board, from 1997 until this year. Parnpree was head of a negotiation team for the creation of a free trade zone with India. Sok Chenda headed the Cambodian Special Economic Zones Board. Parnpree studied public administration at the University of Southern California. Sok Chenda studied economics at the University of Aix en Provence.  Moreover, both are unlike their predecessors. Don Pramudwinai, a career diplomat and foreign minister under the years of Prayut Chan-ocha’s military-run government, was often accused of putting geopolitics, chiefly relations with Beijing, ahead of more balanced, economics-focused policy, as well as for conducting “cowboy diplomacy” over the Myanmar crisis that badly dented ASEAN unity.   Another charge against Don was that, because he was appointed by a junta that had just taken power in a coup, he “spent a large part of his time explaining when, how, and to what extent his country would return, or has returned, to democracy.” As Benjamin Zawacki added, “His tenure has been marked by a conservative and defensive posture rather than one of enterprise or ambition.”  Similar accusations have been leveled at Cambodia’s former foreign minister. Prak Sokhonn, who was quick to lash out against the perceived Western interference in Cambodia’s domestic affairs, was more aligned with Beijing than some officials in the economic ministries liked, and, one hears, not entirely trusted by the former prime minister Hun Sen. Indeed, Hun Sen is believed to have ignored Prak and the foreign ministry by condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  Economics at the center Parnpree and Sok Chenda are new brooms, appointed to refashion their ministries away from a defensive posture on their relations with China and a fixation with stoking geopolitical tensions, and towards a more sustainable, front-foot policy that puts economics at the center. As one Thai newspaper put it, Parnpree is “expected to impart a new momentum to the country’s foreign policy with a strong emphasis on exploring economic dimensions of bilateral and multilateral relationships.”  A Cambodian analyst has argued, “To maintain economic development, Cambodia cannot become subject to US or Western economic sanctions. Maintaining economic development may be Cambodia’s main priority under the leadership of Prime Minister Hun Manet. This appears to be the case with the appointment of Sok Chenda Sophea as the minister of Foreign Affairs.”  These ideas aren’t radical. Surakiart Sathirathai, Thailand’s foreign minister between 2001 and 2005, sought to create “CEO ambassadors”. Surin Pitsuwan, a predecessor, established a “Team Thailand” approach, with diplomats supposed to represent the nation as much as the foreign ministry. But the return to a more stable, stripped-down foreign policy makes sense as Thailand and Cambodia undergo political change.  Hun Sen speaks at a press conference at the National Assembly after a vote to confirm his son, Hun Manet, as Cambodia’s prime minister in Phnom Penh, August 22, 2023. It is said that Hun Sen did not entirely trust his foreign minister, Prak Sokhonn. Credit: Cindy Liu/Reuters Thailand has its first civilian, democratically elected government again for more than a decade. Cambodia has just undergone a once-in-a-lifetime generational succession of its ruling elites, with almost the entire old guard resigning in August to make way for a younger generation, mostly the children of that old guard. Neither Parnpree nor Sok Chenda are big characters. Indeed, they’re rather bureaucratic. And they are on the senior end of the age spectrum. At 66, Parnpree is one of the oldest in the new Thai cabinet. Sok Chenda, aged 67, is the oldest of Cambodia’s important ministers. (He’s 20 years older than the PM.) They are also excellent counterparts to their prime ministers. Srettha Thavisin, the Thai premier, is a businessman at heart.  Although Hun Manet rose through the ranks of the military, he studied economics and played a guiding role in the companies owned by his wife. Parnpree and Sok Chenda appear happy to defer much of the more razmataz foreign policy, such as showing up for international summits, to their prime ministers. Srettha, the self-styled “salesman”-in-chief, clearly likes traveling around the world and meeting foreign leaders, and posing for rather ingratiating and embarrassing selfies with them.  Cambodia’s ruling party obviously wants Hun Manet to be front-and-center of Cambodia’s engagement abroad, a role similar to the one played by his father. As such, having nose-to-the-grindstone foreign ministers makes sense alongside globetrotting premiers.  Experienced foreign policy thinkers In part, too, the two new foreign ministers are also designed to appease the private sectors, especially as Cambodia and Thailand have untested and unsteady governments; Thailand in the form of an odd coalition and Cambodia with its dynastic succession of Hun Manet and almost the entire cabinet. It’s not quite the Biden administration’s evocation of a “Foreign Policy for the Middle Class” but it’s not far off.  How the new foreign ministers translate their briefs into action remains to be seen. In…

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Activists call for probe into China’s ‘consular volunteers’ network

Editor011 mins

The Chinese Communist Party is running a global network of “consular volunteers” through its embassies and consulates who form part of its “United Front” influence and enforcement operations on foreign soil, according to a new report, prompting calls for democratic governments to investigate. While Chinese embassies and consulates have been using such informal networks for at least a decade, they were recently formalized through a State Council decree that took effect on Sept. 1, yet the networks remain largely undeclared to host countries, the Spain-based rights group Safeguard Defenders said in a report published this week. Consular volunteers are mostly drafted in to help with administrative tasks linked to consular protection, risk assessments, and even “warnings and advisories” to overseas citizens and organizations, the report said, citing multiple online recruitment advertisements and other official documents. This gives them full access to individuals’ personal information, and “may also dangerously enhance their function of control over overseas communities and dissenters,” the report warned. China is already known to rely on an illegal, overseas network of “police service centers” that are sometimes used as a base from which to monitor and harass dissidents in other countries. Since taking power in 2012, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has launched an accelerated expansion of political influence activities worldwide, much of which rely on overseas community and business groups under the aegis of the United Front Work Department. Under the radar While Beijing has shut down some of its overseas police “service centers” following protests from host countries, the “consular volunteer” network has managed to fly under the radar until now, further enabling China’s overseas influence and illegal transnational law enforcement operations, according to the report. According to the State Council decree, “The state encourages relevant organizations and individuals to provide voluntary services for consular protection and assistance.” The state also “encourages and supports insurance companies, emergency rescue agencies, law firms and other social forces” to take part in consular work, it says. A building [with glass front] suspected of being used as a secret police station in Chinatown for the purpose of repressing dissidents living in the United States on behalf of the Chinese government stands in New York City’s lower Manhattan on April 18, 2023. Credit: Spencer Platt/Getty Images The decree also requires Chinese nationals overseas to “abide by the laws of China,” regardless of location. Organizations and individuals that “make outstanding contributions to consular protection and assistance” are to be commended and rewarded, it says. And official reports on volunteer commendation ceremonies and training events show that they are – under the supervision of individuals with “direct and demonstrable ties to the CCP’s United Front,” the Safeguard Defenders report said. “The [consular volunteer] network runs through United Front-linked associations and individuals and shows the involvement of the Overseas Chinese Affairs Office,” it said, adding that the Office was labeled an “entity that engages in espionage” by the Federal Canadian Court in 2022. Global effort A March 2023 recruitment drive by the Chinese Embassy in the Czech Republic posted to an official website called for volunteers from among “overseas Chinese, international students, Chinese employees of Chinese-funded enterprises and other individuals in the Czech Republic, overseas Chinese groups, Chinese-funded enterprises and other organizations, institutions and groups.” Similar notices have been seen in Trinidad and Tobago, Botswana, Turkey, Malaysia, Johannesburg, Equatorial Guinea, Chile and Japan, the report said, adding that the Overseas Chinese Affairs Office has also been directly named as a participant at training events for consular volunteers in Rio de Janeiro and Florence, Italy. According to the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, “the United Front system acts as a liaison and amplifier for many other official and unofficial Chinese organizations engaged in shaping international public opinion of China, monitoring and reporting on the activities of the Chinese diaspora, and serving as access points for foreign technology transfer.”  The Safeguard Defenders report called on democratic countries to review the practice of “consular volunteering” by Chinese diplomatic missions, and warned them not to take part in United Front-linked events. French current affairs commentator Wang Longmeng described consular volunteers as quasi-spies. “The so-called assistance in providing consular services actually means collecting financial support from overseas Chinese individuals,” Wang said. “This can help the Chinese Communist Party control overseas Chinese remotely, making them loyal to party and state, as well as helping China to steal Western technology and intelligence.” “These people are also collecting information on dissidents, and many dissidents’ family members back home are also being threatened,” he said. “This is a quasi-espionage organization and an integral part of the Chinese Communist Party’s transnational repression network.” Wang said European countries have been fairly slow to catch on to such practices, compared with the United States. “That encourages the Chinese Communist Party to extend its long arm even further,” he said. “Their intention was never to stop transnational repression and United Front work,” he said, calling for EU legislation to curb such activities “as soon as possible.” APEC summit Zhou Fengsuo, executive director of the U.S.-based Human Rights in China, said China’s consulate in San Francisco had engaged in the large-scale mobilization of patriotic protesters during President Xi Jinping visit last week to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders’ summit in the city.. “The Chinese Communist Party will take up every bit of space it can in democratic societies to extend its rule and engage in state persecution,” Zhou told Radio Free Asia.  “Consulates wield a great deal of power overseas.” “Much like it did with overseas police stations, the international community needs to face up to this form of [Chinese] government control.” After Chinese international student Tian Ruichen took part in protests supporting the “White Paper” movement of November 2022 and the Hong Kong pro-democracy movement, he was unsettled to find he’d been doxxed – a common tactic employed by supporters of Beijing. He told Radio Free Asia that overseas dissident communities need far more protection from the long arm of the Chinese Communist Party than they are currently…

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Over 1,000 Myanmar schools empty as fighting resumes in Rakhine

Editor04 mins

Over 1,000 schools in western Myanmar have been abandoned by pupils, education officials told Radio Free Asia on Thursday. Escalating battles in northern Rakhine state between the junta and Arakan Army have emptied schools in 10 townships.  In those townships, students are normally sent to some 1,800 schools, now of which only about 650 can operate, said Rakhine state’s education director Ba Htwe Sein. “It’s not that they are closed. Parents in uninhabited villages don’t send children to school,” he told RFA. “Children don’t come to school because parents don’t let them go. They are worried about the children. We have not ordered the schools to close.” Rakhine’s education department is telling township education offices to encourage students to go to school and asking schools to run as normal in areas where they can, he added. Some entire villages have fled because of fighting, like Chein Khar Li in Rathedaung township, said one parent from the village. Since Nov. 13 when the Arakan Army and junta’s year-long ceasefire ended, children have not been sent to school in conflict-ridden areas. “My daughter is in the fourth grade. She attends Chein Khar Li village’s elementary school. Since November 13, the entire village has fled. There is only a school with no teacher at all,” the parent said, asking to remain anonymous for fear of reprisals.  “Everyone is fleeing. Even if the child wants to go to school, she could not go to school because there is no one to teach her. I am worried about the delay in children’s education.” Since the junta has blocked land and water routes to suppress the Arakan Army, teachers and other school employees can’t get to work, he added. Most educators in battlegrounds are also fleeing for their lives, said one middle school teacher in Pauktaw, where a series of junta attacks since Nov. 16 have led residents to flee en masse. “How can the teachers go to schools? The teachers themselves are fleeing the war. There are no schools anymore, so who is going to teach?” she said, asking to remain anonymous to protect herself from reprisals. “Even teachers have to flee to save their lives.” Reopening schools seems impossible in the near future, residents told RFA, adding that junta troops are firing heavy artillery every day in Pauktaw.  More than 26,000 people from 4,700 households in Rakhine state have fled due to intense conflict, the United Nation Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reported on Friday.  The report also said at least 11 local people have been killed and more than 30 have been injured by heavy shelling in Maungdaw, Mrauk-U, Kyauktaw and Ann townships. Translated by RFA Burmese. Edited by Mike Firn.

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Myanmar junta arrests 50 in Yangon-area crackdown

Editor06 mins

Myanmar’s military junta has arrested nearly 50 young people in and around Yangon over the past three weeks, residents told Radio Free Asia. The people, mostly under 30 years old, were arrested between Nov. 1 and 21. Approximately 30 of them were arrested in Kayan township, about 40 kilometers (25 miles) east of Myanmar’s largest city. People from the area told RFA Burmese that the Kayan People’s Defense Force have frequently conducted attacks on junta targets there. It has not yet been possible to obtain information on the reasons for their detention or their whereabouts, and their family members have no access to them, said a resident who insisted on anonymity for security reasons. Arrests of civilians has been a common practice since the February 2021 coup, when the military took over control of the government. The Thailand-based Assistance Association for Political Prisoners released an updated report on Nov. 21 stating that over 25,000 civilians have been arrested across the country since the coup, with 19,702 still remaining in detention. At least 10 of the people arrested in Kayan township were taken into custody on Nov. 19, when the junta inspected overnight guests at a dormitory there, the resident said. “Soldiers inspected overnight registration at a dormitory. The arrestees had been living there for some time,” the resident said. “They showed all their documents, but around 10 young men were apprehended. They have not been released and cannot be contacted.” The other 20 people from Kayan township were arrested between Nov. 1 and 18, usually at night. This has resulted in decreased nighttime activity in the township, residents said. Over the same period of time, three people were arrested in Kamayut township, five in Dagon Myothit (Seikkan) township and 10 in North Okkalapa township. People monitoring these arrests told RFA that it remains unknown whether they will be released or not. Two of the Kamayut arrests occurred on Tuesday, a covert online media group called Kamayut Information told RFA. “We have learned that some young men living on the first floor of Sin Ma Leik wholesale market were arrested around 7 pm,” a member of the group told RFA on condition of anonymity to speak freely. “The military has also made arrests at the bustling San Yeik Nyein bus stop, Hledan bus stop and Hledan train station in Ward 3 since August and September.” Staying home A resident of Shwe Pyi Thar township told RFA, requesting not to be identified for safety reasons, that news of arrests keeps people inside at night. “In our ward, no one goes outside at night after we ask the children to come back home before we close the doors.” Ko Kaung, a participant in recurring anti-junta flash protests in Yangon, told RFA that the junta soldiers arrest individuals during their patrols, with a specific focus on targeting the youth under 18. “They make arrests if they find anything suspicious on mobile phones during inspections, and they also detain individuals around 18-year old during their patrols,” he said. Ko Ye Ba Wal, the chairman of the Octopus youth organization that helped to organize flash protests, told RFA that the military has three separate plans to maintain power. “The first plan is to hide the battle news across the country. The second is to defeat urban resistance forces, and the third one is to extort money as ransom from those apprehended.” The Mirror, a military controlled newspaper, reported Wednesday that false information had been circulating suggesting that young people were being forced to do military training to become porters for the military.  According to the report  a junta official said that this was misinformation, and did not acknowledge that any arrests had occurred. RFA attempted to contact Attorney General Htay Aung, the spokesperson of Yangon Region government for a comment but phone calls went unanswered. Translated by Aung Naing. Edited by Eugene Whong and Malcolm Foster.

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Myanmar junta uses pregnant women and monks as human shields

Editor05 mins

Nearly 100 civilians were caught in a battle in western Myanmar on Tuesday, locals told Radio Free Asia. As fighting in Rakhine state between the Arakan Army and junta forces continues over the disputed town of Pauktaw, residents report an increase in abductions and injuries across the region.   Junta forces abducted nearly 100 people, including monks, the elderly, children and pregnant women in Pauktaw to use as human shields. The civilians were abducted on Nov. 16 when the Arakan Army captured Pauktaw’s police station, which was previously occupied by junta troops. In retaliation, the regime attacked the coastal area by firing weaponry from navy ships and aircraft.  By the following week, the junta army and police had re-captured Pauktaw and were patrolling neighborhoods.  The Arakan Army seized control of the city again on Tuesday and rescued the captured civilians, according to a statement the group released. It also stated the regime was frequently using heavy artillery and launching rockets from ships and by aircraft.  The junta stated it had captured Pauktaw before Tuesday, but an announcement by junta spokesman Maj. Gen Zaw Min Tun in military-controlled newspapers did not say anything about the arrested people. Fighting between the two groups is also affecting civilians in the state’s northeast. On Monday evening in Paletwa township on the Chin state border, eight civilians, including five children, were injured in a junta airstrike.  Some of the children are in a critical condition after they were struck by bomb shrapnel while bathing in a creek, said a woman from Mee Zar village, who wished to remain anonymous for fear of reprisals. “The children were hit when they came back from bathing in the creek down from the village. The adults were hit when they went to pick things up,” she said. “I heard that the injured are in a critical condition. At the moment, we’re hiding when we hear the sound of the plane. I am still afraid it will come again.” All eight victims are currently receiving medical treatment at Mee Zar District Hospital. RFA contacted Chin state’s junta spokesperson Kyaw Soe Win by phone regarding the aerial bombardment, but he did not respond by the time of publication. Mee Zar village is about 10 kilometers (six miles) away from Paletwa township’s Hta Run Aing village, where another clash between the junta army and Arakan Army erupted, locals said. On Monday evening, a Christian church in Matupi township’s Lalengpi town was destroyed during the junta’s airstrike, according to the locals. Eleven residents, including eight children, were killed during an aerial bombardment on Vuilu village in Matupi township on the night of Nov. 15.  Translated by RFA Burmese. Edited by Mike Firn.

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Karenni officials: 200 university workers are safe after evacuation

Editor07 mins

More than 200 civilians evacuated from a university during recent fighting in the Kayah state capital in eastern Myanmar are being provided health care at a safe location, Karenni officials told Radio Free Asia. The military junta has alleged that the civilians, which include teachers and the rector from Loikaw University, were being detained against their will. “Some of them seem to be in a good mood, but some others said they are missing their family members,” said Banyar, the director of the Karenni Human Rights Organization. “We have told them that we will proceed in accordance with rules and regulations.”  Fighting began in Loikaw in eastern Myanmar on Nov. 11 when the Karenni Nationalities Defense Force, or KNDF, targeted junta bases and a prison in the city. Junta troops retaliated with airstrikes and shelling, killing 20 civilians, according to the Karenni Human Rights Organization.  The KNDF announced on Nov. 15 that they had successfully occupied the university, where two battalions of military junta soldiers had been stationed. The soldiers had frequently raided and shelled nearby villages, according to KNDF Chairman Khun Bedu.  Regime spokesperson Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun said the attack on Loikaw University was a “barbaric act” and alleged that Karenni troops had killed some teachers and taken other teachers hostage. Khun Bedu denied these accusations, saying the attack was carried out only because soldiers were stationed there. Karenni Nationalities Defense Force fighters stand at Loikaw University in Loikaw, Myanmar, in this still image taken from video released Nov. 16, 2023. Credit: Karenni Nationalities Defense Force/Handout via Reuters A Karenni National Progressive Party official told RFA that junta troops used some university staff members and students as human shields during the fighting. They were evacuated to a secure place and no one has been tortured or killed, he said. “We are working to allow them to go to their destinations safely,” he said. “We are not using them as human shields like the military did.” On Monday, the KNDP published a recorded video clip on its social media page with statements from the university’s rector and several teachers. Some of the university staff members were being questioned about possible junta associations, said Banyar, who goes by one name. Legal action may be taken against some of them, he said on Monday. He did not provide specific details. Artillery attacks and air strikes Karenni forces launched their offensive this month after their northern allies’ “Operation 1027,” during which rebel groups won control of three major cities in Shan state.  The Karenni Humanitarian Aid Initiative on Tuesday said air strikes and artillery attacks killed 68 civilians between Nov. 11-19 in Loikaw and Shan’s Pekon township. Victims included 10 children and 18 women, the group said. The information was gathered from the Karenni Human Rights Organization and media reports, they said. A humanitarian volunteer for Karenni displaced persons told RFA that the actual casualty toll  may be higher. “We cannot get some figures from the frontlines of battles,” the volunteer said. “As the military was being defeated in the battles, they carried out air strikes on civilian targets and shot people dead.” RFA attempted to contact Myint Kyi, junta spokesperson for Kayah state, but phone calls went unanswered. Myanmar military soldiers who surrendered to the Karenni Nationalities Defense Force ride in the back of a vehicle in Loikaw, Myanmar, in this still image taken from video released Nov. 15, 2023. Credit: Karenni Nationalities Defense Force/Handout via Reuters Neither the junta nor Kareni forces have stated total casualty tolls from the fighting that began on Nov. 11.  Elsewhere in Myanmar, a People’s Defense Force in Chin state said they have occupied a military outpost at Kennedy Peak between Kalay and Tedim townships. About 30 junta soldiers had been stationed at the outpost since the February 2021 military coup. “We began to attack this outpost at 4 a.m., and totally controlled the camp at around 6 a.m.,” an official from PDF Zoland told RFA. “It was the highest mountain in northern Chin and strategically important. So we captured it.” RFA attempted to contact Kyaw Soe Win, the social affairs minister and junta spokesperson for Chin state government, for his response but was unable to reach him. Translated by Aung Naing. Edited by Matt Reed and Malcolm Foster.

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Ongoing conflict in northern Myanmar kills 2, including child

Editor05 mins

Residents in northeastern Myanmar are facing both a humanitarian crisis and intense conflict, people living in the area told Radio Free Asia. On Sunday night, airstrikes by junta forces killed two people, including a child, in Shan state.   Locals were caught off guard when a junta plane began an aerial attack on Myo Thit village in Namhsan township around 10 pm. It was unexpected because there had not been any fighting beforehand, said one local, asking to remain anonymous for fear of reprisals.  “There is no fighting in Namhsan, but the aerial bombardment was carried out while people were sleeping,” he told RFA, adding that six women and two men were injured in addition to the two killed. “People died and houses were also burned.” The explosions damaged 23 houses in total. The bomb weighed roughly 500 pounds and killed Tar San Naw, as well as a child, when it landed on a house, according to a statement released by the Ta’ang National Liberation Army on Monday. The junta has not released any information about this attack and calls by RFA to Shan state’s junta spokesperson Khun Thein Maung went unanswered. Conflict in northeastern Shan state has intensified in the last two months, as an allied group of resistance armies took three major cities in Operation 1027 in late October. Earlier that month, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army attacked several junta convoys, causing their troops to retaliate. Since Oct. 10, nearly 30,000 internally displaced people have been sheltering in makeshift tents near the China-Myanmar border in Laukkaing township.  A camp for internally displaced people in Laukkaing township on November 18, 2023. Credit: The Kokang Since Thursday, heavy rain has made life more difficult for those forced from their homes. After several days of rain, resources are becoming harder to find and people’s health is deteriorating, said a Laukkaing resident, who did not want to be named for security reasons.  “They have been living in tents since before [the rain]. It is raining and they are not comfortable anymore. Most are workers from other areas, not residents,”  he told RFA. “There are many people who came to work in Laukkaing from other areas. Water also became scarce in that camp.” Elderly people and children are also more prone to illness in the colder weather without blankets, he added. On Saturday, the camp’s water and electricity were cut off. The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army warned Chinese citizens in Laukkaing to return to China to avoid conflict in the region. They also told civilians to stay away from military camps and not to move around the area. All of Laukkaing’s roads and gates out of the city are blocked and locals are facing food shortages, residents also reported. Junta troops are not letting food or supplies into the city.  After Operation 1027, battles between the military junta and the three northern allies have been continuing in eight townships, including Namhkan, Chinshwehaw, Nawnghkio, Lashio and Manton. Translated by RFA Burmese. Edited by Mike Firn.

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Brotherhood Alliance campaign in Shan State spawns contagion effect in Myanmar

Editor013 mins

The Three Brotherhood Alliance’s Operation 1027 in northern Shan State has caused a contagion effect, with its sweeping victories since late October followed by major gains by ethnic resistance organizations across Myanmar.  Since the country’s founding in 1948, the military has never suffered such significant and widespread battlefield setbacks. Despite having seized power in a coup d’état in February 2021, Myanmar’s military has never been able to consolidate power. But now, it looks like the beginning stages of their total defeat, with plummeting morale amongst the rank and file.  Operation 1027 continues across Shan State with the Three Brotherhood Alliance — , which includes the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, (TNLA) the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and the Arakan Army — and some people’s defense forces under the National Unity Government (NUG) having taken nine towns, over 160 military camps, and now controlling key roads.  Opposition forces have seized abandoned armor, artillery, and a large cache of small arms and ammunition. And army attempts to supply their isolated forces by air have had little success with opposition forces often recovering the supplies. Members of the Karenni Nationalities Defense Force, KNDF pose in front of Loikaw University in Kayah State following their attack on junta forces on Nov. 15, 2023. Credit: KNDF The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) is currently pushing towards their former headquarters in Laukkaing, which they lost in 2009. Ironically, the commander of Myanmar’s military forces in that 2009 battle was none other than junta leader Min Aung Hlaing.  Radio Free Asia has reported that a second battalion of some 120 men has laid down their arms in Shan State. The first light infantry battalion to do so, which included 41 men, took place on October 30, 2023. Authorities in Naypyitaw are so concerned about the total loss of Kokang Special Autonomous Zone, that they replaced the head of the local allied Border Guards Force that was established in 2009, Myint Swe, with Brigadier-General Tun Tun Myint of the northeastern command. But beyond that the military is unable to do little other than barrage the region with long-range artillery and aerial bombardments. Despite Min Aung Hlaing’s vow to mount a counter offensive, the military is short on manpower, helicopter lift capability and is facing crumbling morale. Contagion Effect The Kachin Independence Army has joined the fray, capturing a military base in Kutkai, in northern Shan state, where they claim 30 soldiers were killed.  There are ongoing encounters between them and military regime forces in Kachin. With the roads contested, the military is now dependent on ferrying in men and supplies. The fighting has significantly expanded in the past week. Karenni forces launched a parallel offensive, Operation 1111, in Kayah state. They have seized 20 military outposts in 6 days of fighting.  But most significantly, they are in the middle of an assault on Loikaw. The city of 50,000, is the first provincial capital that is at risk of falling to opposition forces.  Karenni Nation Defense Forces (KNDF) have claimed to have killed 110 soldiers and taken 38 prisoners of war. Footage spread across social media shows KNDF personnel taking the surrender and providing medical care for soldiers at the University in Loikaw.  Members of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, MNDAA Pose with ammunition seized from Hkoke Htan military outpost in Kokang region on Nov. 16, 2023. Operation 1027 continues across Shan State with the Three Brotherhood Alliance and some people’s defense forces Under the National Unity Government, NUG having taken nine towns, over 160 military camps, and now controlling key roads. Credit: The Kokang The situation in Chin state has been more fluid. Military forces drove some Chin fighters into India’s Mizoram state, but some dozen were returned to military custody by the Assam Rifles. Days later, military personnel found themselves in Mizoram where they had fled. In this case, the Assam Rifles helicoptered them back to safety in Myanmar.  The military has responded with airstrikes; one of which killed eight children when a bomb fell on the house being used as a makeshift school. The situation in Rakhine has the potential to be the most costly to the SAC.  The Arakan Army (AA) and the military broke their 2020 ceasefire following the coup, but both sides quickly concluded that an escalation of violence was not in their best interest.  A second ceasefire was reached in November 2022. This was an enormous disappointment for the National Unity Government, which sought a new front against the junta.  Breakdown in Rakhine Yet the involvement of the Arakan Army in northern Shan state, where they are a member of the Three Brotherhood Alliance, has led to a breakdown in the peace in Rakhine state.  The military has deployed several navy ships to the region along with additional personnel, but both failed to serve as a deterrent. The AA broke the ceasefire on November 13.  In the first 24 hours of commencing offensive operations, the AA seized over 40 military and police outposts. Some 26 police surrendered. In many cases police have abandoned remote posts to consolidate in the larger towns.  A man stands amongst debris in the aftermath of a military strike on a camp for displaced people near northern Laiza area on Oct. 11, 2023. Credit: AFP The AA took the town of Pauktaw, their first. The military has responded as they can, with aerial bombardment and indiscriminate fire from their naval vessels that has led to the death of innocent civilians and over 20,000 displaced people.  There are reports that several ministers from the Rakhine State Military Council have already fled the capital Sittwe, for fear of being arrested by the AA. The AA can be expected to quickly fill the political vacuum. In Sagaing — where a joint operation between the KIA, the AA, the All Burma Students’ Defense Force, and other PDFs led to the capture of Kawlin — the first of 330 nationwide township capitals to fall, has now spread to Tigyaing township. The…

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Taiwan: the ‘most sensitive’ issue, linchpin to US-China relations

Editor012 mins

The leaders of the world’s two biggest economies emerged from a high-profile summit with a conciliatory and consensual commitment to find a forward path of managing competition that benefits the United States and China, but one issue still remains as the linchpin: Taiwan.  While pundits would not have expected the meeting between President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping this week to have moved the needle as far as Taiwan is concerned, the issue was tabled and discussed, with both sides posturing as they always have. Biden reiterated the U.S.’s agreement to a One China policy and its position that Taiwan maintains its sovereignty despite China’s claims to the contrary. Xi, according to Xinhua news agency, called for the U.S. to take concrete actions to show that it is not supporting “Taiwan’s independence,” stop arming Taiwan and back China’s reunification. “China will realize reunification, and this is unstoppable,” Xi said during the summit, which nonetheless resulted in both sides agreeing to a dialogue on artificial intelligence, set up a working group to combat precursors for fentanyl, as well as resume high-level military-to-military communications. Chinese President Xi Jinping speaks during a bilateral meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, in Woodside, California, U.S., November 15, 2023. Credit: Reuters The self-governed democratic island has been the flashpoint amid the increasingly tense bilateral relationship between China and the U.S. The two have disputed the Taiwan issue for years, especially since the previous administration of Donald Trump. Beijing has claimed numerous times that it could resort to using force to reclaim the island if necessary. The escalated diplomatic stand-off, coupled with China’s apparent increased inward-looking and restricting investment environment for foreign investors to be topped by Beijing’s tightened grip on Hong Kong have triggered an outflow of capital.  “Taiwan was really an essential part of the summit,” pointed out Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis. “The well-crafted speech by Xi during the business summit referring to the fact that China will not engage in any cold war, or that China is looking for a military conflict is very important. I think China knows well that the Taiwan issue is top on the agendas of business executives. And that risk is now one of the reasons actually why some people aren’t investing either in Taiwan for that matter or the mainland. So I think that is a big statement.” “Peaceful coexistence” The evening after his summit with Biden, Xi addressed a room full of top U.S. business leaders in San Francisco, where he called “peaceful coexistence” a baseline for China and the U.S. to uphold as two major countries. Xi stressed that China never bets against the U.S. or interferes in its internal affairs. “Likewise the United States should not bet against China, or interfere in China’s internal affairs.” He added, “aggression and expansion are not in our genes.” To what extent Xi’s remarks will help de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait, and by virtue the broader South China Sea, will likely be watched closely by analysts, but more importantly by Taiwan’s neighbors Japan and South Korea which are key allies of the U.S. in the region. At the same time, it also raises the question of how reassuring it would be to investors to bring fresh capital back to China. The U.S., Japan and South Korea have expressed their objection to what they saw as threats from Beijing, as China conducted military exercises around Taiwan to assert its sovereignty over the island. The Chinese navy has also been engaging in aggressive maneuvers in the South China Sea in a standoff with the Philippines. A Taiwan Navy Knox-class frigate fires chaff during a navy exercise off Yilan County, Taiwan, Friday, April 13, 2018. Credit: AP The dispute between the two major powers over the island amplified when Beijing issued a strong criticism following the visit of the then-Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, to Taiwan in August 2022. Since the event, the Chinese side had suspended its military communication channels with the U.S., a critical channel considered a last resort to prevent an unintended military confrontation. According to Zhang Baohui, professor of government and international affairs at Hong Kong-based Lingnan University, although the resumption of military communication channels between the U.S. and China will have a limited effect on the Taiwan issue, it is still a stabilizer to the high-risk relations between the two. “The US achieved its goal of reopening military to military ties and secured Chinese cooperation, while China achieved the goal of stabilizing the strategic rivalry, preventing it from getting worse,” said Zhang. “I think the outcome is positive for both countries. Both gained the image that they can work together to enhance global welfare.” Financial implications  On the financial and business front, investors are taking a wait-and-see approach to the impact of the summit. For one, the U.S. did not lift any export controls on high-end semiconductors, an issue that China raised in the summit, criticizing the Americans for attempting to deny Chinese people the right to development. “The meeting should prove to have little long-term impact on financial markets. Xi did receive a very positive reception from business leaders, but here he was preaching to the choir,” said Brock Silvers, chief investment officer of Kaiyuan Capital.  “Little was said or agreed that would convince recalcitrant investors that China was now prepared to tackle systemic or deflationary pressures, make necessary reforms, or meaningfully address investability concerns. “For investors, very few minds were likely changed.”  U.S. President Joe Biden and China’s President Xi Jinping walk in the gardens at the Filoli Estate in Woodside, Calif., Wednesday, Nov, 15, 2023, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. Credit:The New York Times via AP, Pool Garcia-Herrero is more optimistic. Overall, the Xi-Biden meeting could prompt the foreign business community to see that “maybe China’s not so uninvestable,” she said.  “I’m expecting inflows into China because of this…

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Former lawmaker dies in police custody after arrest for Myanmar scams

Editor011 mins

A former member of parliament for Myanmar’s pro-military Union Solidarity and Development Party wanted by Chinese authorities has died in police custody after being arrested for masterminding an online scam ring, according to junta-controlled media. Police in the Kokang Self-Administered Zone in northern Shan state, along Myanmar’s border with China, arrested ethnic Chinese businessman Ming Xuechang in Laukking township on Thursday in addition to his son Ming Guoping and grandson Ming Zhenzhen, MRTV said in a report. Beijing issued arrest warrants for the three late last week for allegedly helping to orchestrate telecom scam rings in Myanmar staffed by human trafficking victims. During the arrest, Ming Xuechang was injured by what MRTV described as a “self-inflicted gunshot wound from his own pistol.” He later died in hospital while undergoing treatment, the report said. Myanmar authorities handed Ming Guoping and Ming Zhenzhen over to police from China’s Yunnan province via the border gate at Yanglongkeng, according to MRTV. In addition to the three, Chinese authorities had also issued an arrest warrant for Ming Xuechang’s daughter, Ming Julan, who remains at large. Myanmar’s junta said the four family members committed online fraud, abduction, illegal detention, and extortion in the Kokang Self-Administered Zone. Experts say that many powerful officials in Kokang hold Chinese national ID cards and passports, giving Chinese police the jurisdictional authority to issue warrants for their arrest. Arrests in Yunnan Prior to issuing warrants for the members of the Ming family, authorities in China arrested 11 businesspeople at a trade fair in Yunnan’s Lincang township on Oct. 1, according to Chinese state media.  Among them was Liu Zhangqi – a hotelier and former lawmaker for the Union Solidarity and Development Party in Kone Kyan township who is another of Ming Xuechang’s grandsons. Phoe Wa, a native of Hopan township in northern Shan’s Wa state self-administered zone with knowledge of the online scam industry, told RFA Burmese that he believes the arrests are related. “Some of the 11 are friends or relatives of the four who were the focus of the recent arrest warrants,” he said. “While there are [gambling] coin games on the first floor of hotels in Laukkaing, Muse and Chinshwehaw townships, there are typically restricted upper floors which house online fraud businesses. I assume that these cases are related to these online scams.” A source who is close to Liu Zhangqi, also known as “Maung Maung,” told RFA on condition of anonymity that attempts by family members to meet with the 11 arrested businesspeople in Yunnan have been rebuffed by Chinese authorities. Residents of Kokang who speak Chinese said that on Nov. 12, Liu published a statement in the Chinese media calling on the public to “help the Chinese government control online fraud” in the region. In the statement, Liu said Chinese authorities would “raid homes, hotels and casinos to find suspects,” and warned that anyone who resists arrest “bears responsibility for their own actions.” While reports by local media suggest that Chinese special forces have entered Kokang to conduct arrests of online fraud suspects, RFA has been unable to independently verify the claims. Kokang chief removed The arrest of the Mings comes a day after the junta removed Myint Swe as chief administrator for Kokang and replaced him with Brig. Gen. Tun Tun Myint on a temporary basis. Myint Swe was last seen in public on Nov. 8 at an emergency meeting of the National Defense and Security Council in Naypyidaw, which he had been invited to as a special participant. The junta’s announcement of his replacement made no mention of whether it was related to Thursday’s arrests. RFA made several attempts to contact the Chinese Embassy in Yangon by email for comment on the warrants, arrests, and alleged operations by Chinese special forces in Kokang, but received no response by the time of publishing. Myint Swe, seen at a meeting Nov. 8, was removed on Wednesday as the chief administrator for Kokang Self-Autonomous Special Region. Credit: Myanmar military Chinese Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong led a delegation of officials to meet with junta chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing in Naypyidaw on Oct. 31. During the meeting, the two agreed to form a joint Myanmar-China task force to eradicate online scam rings in the Laukkaing area, according to pro-junta media reports. Days earlier, the “Three Brotherhood” Alliance of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Arakan Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army launched an offensive on Oct. 27 dubbed “Operation 1027” and have since made notable gains against the military in several key cities in Shan state. On Day One of the campaign, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, or MNDAA, occupied Chinshwehaw township and arrested several people for alleged roles in online scams. Crackdown only ‘tip of iceberg’ According to pro-junta media, authorities in Kokang have arrested a total of 7,789 foreign nationals – including 7,395 Chinese, 189 Vietnamese, 162 Thais, 32 Malaysians and two Laotians – in connection with online scams in the region. Authorities have deported 6,892 of them to China, reports said. Junta authorities in Myanmar’s Shan state have arrested and deported hundreds of Chinese nationals linked to telecom scams in the region in recent stings, but residents say the rings continue to flourish there, attracting workers with the promise of good-paying jobs. Scamming gangs have proliferated in Shan state, along eastern Myanmar’s borders with China and Thailand, amid the political chaos of the Feb. 1, 2021, coup d’etat, benefitting from widespread unemployment, poor oversight, and growing investment from across the border. Residents told RFA Burmese that scamming operations continue to thrive despite the crackdown, offering high-paying jobs to candidates with computer and language skills who are then held against their will and forced to earn money for their captors by working as telecom scammers. The gangs are known to brutally punish trafficking victims who refuse to work for them or fail to meet earning quotas, sometimes with deadly consequences. MNDAA spokesman Li Kyarwen told RFA that local military…

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Investigative Journalism Reportika © March 2022 by Ij-Reportika is licensed under CC BY 4.0