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Category: ASEAN

Another junta battalion surrenders to rebels in Myanmar’s Shan state

Editor06 mins

A light infantry battalion with more than 120 troops surrendered to ethnic rebels – the second time in two weeks that a battalion belonging to Myanmar’s military junta has laid down arms to rebel forces in northern Shan state. The entire Light Infantry Battalion 129, including its commander and 134 family members, surrendered on Sunday to the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance, a spokesman for the rebel group told Radio Free Asia. “We welcome the soldiers who have surrendered to us,” MNDAA spokesman Li Kyarwen said. “We are also safeguarding them. The injured persons are getting medical treatment. We have safely transported them to their expected destination.”  Each of the junta soldiers was awarded 1 million kyat (US$476) while one family member was given an additional 100,000 kyat (US$47), Li Kyarwen said. The junta battalion was based near the border with China in Laukkaing, one of about a half dozen areas in Shan state targeted during a coordinated military offensive launched last month by an alliance of three ethnic armies. Reports show that the Three Brotherhood Alliance – made up of the MNDAA and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army in Shan state and the Arakan Army in Rakhine state – has taken some 150 military camps in battles throughout Shan state, causing alarm among top military brass.  On Oct. 30, all 41 members of Light Infantry Battalion 143, including a deputy commander and two company commanders, surrendered to the MNDAA in Shan’s Kunlong township. A total of 127 Myanmar army soldiers and 134 of their family members – 261 people – surrendered to the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance on Nov. 12, 2023 in northern Shan state. Credit: Three Brotherhood Alliance Junta chief Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing said last week that the alliance’s Operation 1027 – named for the date that the offensive began – could “break the country into pieces” if left unchecked.  RFA attempted to contact a spokesman for the military junta for comment on the latest battalion surrender, but phone calls went unanswered on Tuesday. No reinforcements On Sunday, the junta declared martial law in eight townships in Shan state, including Laukkaing.  But troops in the region haven’t received military reinforcements recently, which must have been a contributing factor in the battalion’s choice to give up, said Than Soe Naing, a military and political observer.  “They didn’t think that it was worthy for them to sacrifice the lives of more than 200 people, including soldiers and their families,” he said. “In this helpless situation, they made the decision to surrender.” That was the right decision for commanders to make, said Captain Lin Htet Aung, a former military officer who joined the non-violent Civil Disobedience Movement, or CDM, in opposition to the junta. “We have seen considerable losses to the military in recent battles, and we haven’t heard the military express condolences or offer encouragement,” he said. “So, junta soldiers should think about whether they should sacrifice their lives to protect these leaders.” Junta forces also suffered a loss during fighting on Monday near the Indian border in western Myanmar’s Chin state. More than 40 junta soldiers fled across the border and were later handed back to Myanmar authorities by Indian forces. Additionally, fighting between the Arakan Army and junta troops in Rakhine state has intensified in recent days. And in northeastern Myanmar, Karenni Nationalities Defense Force targeted junta bases in Loikaw University and a prison in the capital of Kayah state on Saturday. Translated by Aung Naing. Edited by Matt Reed and Malcolm Foster.

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APEC 2023: Xi heads for US in closely-watched summit with Biden

Editor010 mins

Even as the world watches keenly as China’s President Xi Jinping meets his American counterpart Joe Biden on Wednesday, expectations of what could transpire in a climate of fraught bilateral relations marred by a tech war and regional tensions are modest. Xi is heading to San Francisco where he is due to meet Biden on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, the first time in a year since the two met in Bali, Indonesia. Some experts, while not anticipating a change in the trajectory of the U.S.-China relationship, are hopeful that the talks will deliver some results such as the formal resumption of military-to-military relations. Diplomatic and commercial dialogues between the two have resumed after the downing of the Chinese balloon earlier this year, pointed out Zhang Baohui, director of the Centre for Asian Pacific Studies at Lingnan University.  “The two sides have even begun strategic dialogues on nuclear and maritime issues. However, the U.S. wants to reopen military to military dialogues to prevent inadvertent incidents. This meeting between the top leaders should remove the hurdle for military-to-military exchanges. “If so, this should be a significant development as the world is very concerned by the prospect of military conflicts between the two countries in sensitive areas like the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea,” Zhang said.  To be sure, the White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters on Monday that both sides will discuss strengthening communications and managing competition responsibly so that the U.S.-China relationship “does not veer into conflict” during the summit.  “The way we achieve that is through intense diplomacy,” said Sullivan. He added that there are areas where “interests overlap,” such as efforts to effectively manage competition that could be done by reestablishing military-to-military communications. Incremental outcomes If there were any outcomes to come from the Xi-Biden summit, Ian Chong, a political scientist from the National University of Singapore believes they would be “incremental, but nonetheless important” to maintain the momentum of expanding dialogue. “Such effects will not be seen immediately after the meeting. Rather, they may unfold as more areas come under discussion in the following months to inject more predictability into the U.S.-PRC relationship to avoid unintended escalation, even as competition continues,” Chong said, referring to China’s formal name, the People’s Republic of China. “Xi probably seeks to press the PRC’s case on Taiwan and the South China Sea, while probing the U.S. on trade and technology and seeking more predictably in the bilateral relationship,” he noted.  “Biden will likely reiterate U.S. positions on Taiwan and the South China Sea, while seeking more stability in the bilateral relationship. They may try to gauge each other’s positions on the Israel-Hamas conflict, Russian aggression in Ukraine, climate, and AI.” U.S. President Joe Biden meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 leaders’ summit in Bali, Indonesia, November 14, 2022. (Source: Reuters) Another area of contention that is expected to be discussed is semiconductors in light of the recent chip export ban by Biden, alongside the push for generative AI in both the U.S. and China, observed James Downes, head of the Politics and Public Administration Programme at Hong Kong Metropolitan University. “The key achievable issues or goals will likely relate to the ongoing tech war between both countries,” said Downes. “The Biden-Xi Summit will be much more successful if both sides focus on economic issues, as opposed to long-term and divisive geopolitical issues.” According to Lingnan University’s Zhang, Xi will no doubt pressure the U.S. to relax technology denial measures against China, but he believes the U.S. is unlikely to yield on this issue.  “Technological competition constitutes a central place in the overall U.S. competition strategy,” he explained. Zhang believes that Xi will try to persuade Biden to return the relationship to cooperation, away from strategic competition, seeking a U.S. commitment that it does not support Taiwan’s quest for independence. Biden, in contrast, will seek to stabilize the competition to prevent “conflict” by pursuing more measures to build “guardrails” for its competition with China, like the resumption of military-to-military dialogues.  “The US will assure Beijing that it will follow the One China principle. Nonetheless, deepening security cooperation between Washington and Taipei will continue to bother Beijing and lead to contentious relations with the US.” Seeking specific outcomes Meanwhile, Sullivan said the U.S. is looking for specific outcomes in the overlapped areas of interests from the summit, which include efforts to combat the illicit fentanyl trade and discussion between the two leaders on critical global issues such as Russia’s war against Ukraine, and the evolving crisis in the Middle East. Given China’s stance on the Middle East conflict, there may be a potential that the leaders may agree-at-large, in expressing the importance of peace in the region. China’s deputy permanent representative to the United Nations, Geng Shuang, said in New York on Monday that establishing peace in the region was an important task for Beijing.  However, it could be challenging for Biden and Xi to release a joint agreement on criticizing Hamas as Beijing has traditionally shown a less sympathetic stance on Israel, when compared to that of the U.S. This difference in diplomatic approaches may complicate the leaders in reaching a more detailed consensus on the Israel-Hamas war.  In fact, according to Xinhua News Agency, Geng expressed “shock and concern” over statements made by Israeli officials regarding nuclear weapons usage in Gaza Strip, labeling the Israeli remarks as “irresponsible and troubling.” While Geng condemned the idea of using nuclear weapons, largely aligning with the international community and the Non Proliferation Treaty principles, the senior diplomat did not specifically address or criticize the actions of Hamas, which have led to civilian casualties. Edited by Mike Firn and Taejun Kang.

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Junta expands use of radio shows, Telegram app to boost propaganda

Editor05 mins

Myanmar’s military junta is increasingly using state media outlets for propaganda purposes while it continues its crack down on independent news outlets, several journalists have told Radio Free Asia. The junta has ramped up its use of its channel on the messaging app Telegram to distribute its information, according to the reporters. In addition, there are a number of pro-junta Telegram channels that then amplify the junta’s propaganda. “People need to be vigilant against fake news,” Sein Win, newsroom management editor for Mizzima Media. “It is a traditional and common strategy of the military since long, long ago. People might be trapped in their propaganda.” The junta has revoked the licenses of four publishers and two printing houses since the junta seized power in a Feb. 1, 2021, coup d’etat. Some 14 media outlets including Mizzima, Democratic Voice of Burma and The Irrawaddy have also lost their licenses.  Last month, junta troops raided and shuttered independent news outlet Development Media Group in Rakhine state, arresting one reporter and a guard. The news outlet covers armed conflict and human rights violations in the western state that borders Bangladesh. But junta-controlled media such as Thazin FM continue to operate. Every Wednesday, the outlet broadcasts its “Public Voices Among Public” call-in program. Most of the callers are just parroting junta-approved talking points, several residents of the Yangon and Sagaing regions told RFA. Journalists cover a protest against Myanmar’s junta in Myaynigone, Yangon, on Feb. 27, 2021. Credit: RFA The general message repeated on the program is that the National Unity Government, or NUG, and the anti-junta People’s Defense Force paramilitaries are creating problems that worsen people’s lives. The NUG is made up of leaders in the former civilian government and other anti-junta activists. Junta leader’s visit to friendly media outlets Thazin FM also inserts a variety of songs that carry junta messages into the call-in program, a Khin-U township resident told RFA on condition of anonymity. But the propaganda won’t be enough to counteract what many people are experiencing, he said. “We love to listen to a variety of music, including modern songs,” he said. “But actually, people are suffering various hardships in daily life.” In June, junta chief Sr. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing spoke about the need for more public interest and educational programs during visits to Thazin FM and the military-owned Myawaddy Television. “The military council is preventing spread of accurate information to the world, to the people and to its forces by cracking down on independent media and by creating fake news,” said Nay Phone Latt, the spokesman for NUG’s Office of the Prime Minister. “In addition, they have developed fake media agencies to spread misinformation.” Junta spokesman Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun didn’t immediately reply to RFA’s request for comment on the junta’s use of propaganda. Translated by Aung Naing. Edited by Matt Reed.

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Cambodia’s Hun Manet goes up against the private sector

Editor014 mins

On November 13, Cambodia’s princeling prime minister, Hun Manet, will meet with Cambodia’s aggravated private sector for his administration’s first Government-Private Sector Forum which his nascent government has been preparing for months. There has already been a public furore over the likely rise in taxation, which Hun Manet has denied will happen, but anyone with sense knows it must happen.  The property sector is in a very bad way. Worse is the banking sector, where high private debt has everyone on alter and is leading to sleepless nights amongst the middle classes—domestic credit to the private sector stands at 182 percent of GDP as of last year, according to a World Bank report from last month (p. 46). By comparison, in China, it was 220 percent. Hun Manet greets supporters during a campaign rally in Phnom Penh in July 2023. Prime Minister, Hun Manet, will meet with Cambodia’s aggravated private sector for his administration’s first Government-Private Sector Forum in November which his nascent government has been preparing for months. Credit: Tang Chhin Sothy/AFP Wetting our appetites, Hun Manet has suggested that he will announce new policies, including for the property sector, later this month. One could be to allow foreigners to buy villas in gated communities (boreys), where most of the toxic credit in the property sector seems to be.  At the same time, however, Hun Manet will be being told by his elders—including his father, Hun Sen, Cambodia’s ruler for almost four decades—that he cannot give away too much to the private sector. Hun Manet is an inexperienced, slightly hollow leader whose legitimacy is tied to being his father’s chosen successor, not any of his own achievements (yet). No ‘social bargain’ The upcoming forum will be a moment when some people in the private sector—those expected to fund the lavish lifestyles of the political nobility and the increasing tax burdens of the state, but without getting an actual seat at the political table—think they can gain an advantage.  There is no “social bargain” in Cambodia between the political nobility and commoners. If the economy goes pear-shaped, the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) won’t voluntarily resign from power, nor would it allow the masses to openly protest on the streets. However, there is a delicate bargain between the political nobility and the private sector. The task for all authoritarian regimes is this: how do you ensure that the private sector pays the piper but doesn’t call the tune? After all, why maintain the political nobility (which is rentier in nature) when the private sector isn’t getting something in return? Why not go over the heads of the political rent-seekers?  A man rides a cart in Phnom Penh, Sept. 2023. Credit: Tang Chhin Sothy/AFP This dynamic isn’t specific to Cambodia. In China and Vietnam, the defining policies of Xi Jinping and Nguyen Phu Trong, the two communist parties’ general secretaries, have been a mammoth crackdown on the private sector that reasserts the communists’ monopoly on power as part of vast anti-corruption campaigns. Why? Because authoritarian governments only have to be good at one thing: denying space for any alternative to their authority. But private sectors would be an alternative if they weren’t constrained, as seemed to be the case in both communist states before 2012, the year Xi and Trong came to power. Indeed, businesses and tycoons might start demanding the predictability of the rule of law and private property rights; they might want a direct say in politics; they might start to publicly criticize their political masters (think Jack Ma of Alibaba!); and they might protest by denying the state the taxation it needs to survive.  Splurging on titles How do you rectify this? You co-opt the private sector; you turn a blind eye to its dodgy actions; you create policies favorable to its advancement; you intermarry your political nobility with the economic elites; you arrest outspoken individuals for corruption to set an example of what happens if someone steps out of line. During its succession process this year, the CPP in Cambodia has tried to appease the private sector. It has splurged on the number of oknha titles it awarded; as of June 2023, there were 1,299 people with the honorific, although the number grew after the July general elections The number of land concessions and other corrupt practices also boomed. The Cambodia Oknha Association was launched in June by Cambodia’s most prominent tycoons, with Hun Sen as honorary president. Ostensibly a way for the ruling party to collect “charitable” donations, it is actually a way for the most powerful oknha to constrain their lessors and do Hun Sen’s bidding. Hun Manet’s government now has 1,422 secretaries or undersecretaries of state, more than double the number his father’s government had. Many of these positions are bought and allow the occupiers to extract patronage payments. Moreover, the new administration has vowed to run the country in a more technocratic and economic-minded manner.  A woman on a motorcycle laden with goods rides past a Rolls-Royce at a car dealership in Phnom Penh in 2014. Credit: Samrang Pring/Reuters The apparent insinuation is that it will focus on finances, not playing at geopolitics. It has maintained or appointed ministers whom the private sector trusts. Aun Pornmoniroth, the powerful finance minister, kept his job and is now the real architect of government policy. Sok Chenda Sophea, formerly the head of the Council for the Development of Cambodia, the government body tasked with attracting and managing foreign investment, is now foreign minister. Keo Rottanak, the new Minister of Mines and Energy, was managing director of the state-owned electricity provider Electricite du Cambodge. Chheang Ra, the new health minister, was director of the state-run Calmette Hospital. However, constraining the private sector and economic barons will become a lot more difficult. Things were easier in the past when the lifestyles of the political nobility were relatively cheap (a few billion dollars) and when the Cambodian state had a small budget that was primarily funded by foreign…

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Beijing tests Manila’s nerves in disputed reef

Editor07 mins

China was once again trying to block Philippine ships from delivering supplies to the troops stationed at the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea on Friday. Earlier in the day, “China Coast Guard (CCG) and Chinese Maritime Militia (CMM) vessels recklessly harassed, blocked, executed dangerous maneuvers in another attempt to illegally impede or obstruct a routine resupply and rotation mission to BRP Sierra Madre (LS 57) at Ayungin Shoal (Second Thomas Shoal),” the National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea said in a statement. The West Philippine Sea is the name that Filipinos use for waters claimed by Manila in the South China Sea. “CCG vessel 5203 deployed water cannon against Philippine supply vessel M/L Kalayaan,” it said. M/L, or motor launch, implies a small-sized, motor-powered boat.  The Kalayaan and another supply boat, the Unaizah Mae 1, were “also subjected to extremely reckless and dangerous harassment at close proximity” by Chinese vessels inside the shoal’s lagoon during their approach to BRP Sierra Madre, said the Philippine National Task Force.   “Nonetheless, both supply boats were able to successfully reach LS 57 (BRP Sierra Madre),” it said. “We condemn, once again, China’s latest unprovoked acts of coercion and dangerous maneuvers … that has put the lives of our people at risk.” Manila deliberately ran the World War II-era Sierra Madre aground in 1999 to serve as its outpost at the shoal and has to dispatch ships on a regular basis to deliver fresh supplies to the military personnel there. The Philippines’ rotation and resupply (RoRe) missions have recently been increasingly impeded and blocked by Chinese ships. Philippine ships were surrounded by a large number of Chinese vessels, Nov. 10, 2023. Credit: Ray Powell on X In a graphic provided by Ray Powell from the U.S. Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation, Philippine Coast Guard ships accompanying the two supply boats were surrounded by a large number of Chinese vessels. “In total, 24 Chinese ships were involved in the incident, including four Coast Guard ships. The rest were maritime militia ships,” Powell said. Continuing blockade “Beijing is testing Manila’s nerves,” said Malcolm Davis, a defense analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI). “China will keep on conducting such blockades with the hope that Manila will give up its RoRe missions but it won’t happen,” Davis told Radio Free Asia. When and how the United States, the Philippines’ treaty ally, will get involved remains to be seen, according to the analyst. By a mutual defense treaty, Washington is obliged to defend its ally in the case the latter is being attacked. The U.S. has repeatedly said that Article IV of the 1951 U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty “extends to armed attacks on Philippine armed forces, public vessels, and aircraft – including those of its Coast Guard – anywhere in the South China Sea.” The Chinese Coast Guard quickly issued a statement calling Manila’s mission “illegal.” Spokesperson Gan Yu said that “two small transport ships and three coast guard ships from the Philippines entered the waters adjacent to Ren’ai Reef (Chinese name for Second Thomas Shoal) in China’s Nansha (Spratly) Islands without permission from the Chinese government.” “The Chinese Coast Guard follows Philippine ships in accordance with the law, takes control measures, and makes temporary special arrangements for the Philippines to transport food and other necessary daily supplies,” Gan said. “The Philippines’ actions violate China’s territorial sovereignty, violate the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, and violate its own commitments,” he said, “We urge the Philippines to immediately stop its infringing actions.” For its part, Manila said the Philippine Embassy in China “has demarched the Chinese foreign ministry and protested” against China’s actions. As of Nov. 7, the Philippines has made 58 diplomatic protests against what it sees as China’s violations of its sovereignty in the South China Sea. Last month Manila summoned the Chinese ambassador to the Philippines to protest over two similar incidents, one of which led to a small collision of ships. Second Thomas Shoal is about 200 kilometers (124 miles) from the Philippine island of Palawan, and more than 1,000 kilometers from China’s Hainan island. It is claimed  by the Philippines, China, Vietnam and Taiwan, but is located inside the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Edited by Mike Firn and Elaine Chan. BenarNews is an RFA-affiliated online news organization.

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Interview: Opposition’s Operation 1027 in Shan State indicates ‘low point’ in Myanmar-China ties

Editor017 mins

On Oct. 27, the Northern or “Three Brotherhood” Alliance of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Arakan Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army launched “Operation 1027” – named for the date of the offensive. The groups simultaneously struck junta positions in the strategic Shan cities of Kunlong, Hseni, Chin Shwe Haw, Laukkaing, Namhkan, Kutkai, and Lashio, the state’s largest municipality. Since then, reports indicate that the alliance has taken some 150 military camps in battles throughout Shan state and caused alarm in the top military brass. The campaign will “break the country into pieces” if left unchecked, said junta chief Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing on Nov. 8. To understand the significance of Operation 1027, Radio Free Asia Burmese reporter Ye Kaung Myint Maung interviewed Jason Tower, the country director for the Burma program at United Stated Institute of Peace in Washington. Tower has decades of experience researching cross-border conflicts in Southeast Asia. Radio Free Asia: The Northern Alliance groups have advanced their campaign 1027, a military operation. And it was reported that they have captured more than 100 military outposts and even some important towns in northern Shan State, and some fighting has reached an area not far from where the military academy is located. What’s your overall take on Operation 1027? Tower: In my view, this operation potentially could really be a game changer in terms of the broader revolution and conflict in Myanmar. I think a lot of this in terms of the timing has to do with China’s growing dissatisfaction with the junta regime, because over the past five months you’ve seen where the junta not only has proven incapable of working with the Chinese to advance any of China’s economic interests. You’ve also seen it fail miserably in terms of providing support to China around security interests and cracking down on increasingly malign criminal actors who are harming a global population through scams and human trafficking – a lot of which are targeting Chinese nationals. And so you’ve seen … out of frustration, the Chinese side has cracked down in a pretty strong way on the United Wa State Army and on the National Democratic Alliance Army, even detaining high-level Wa leaders like Bao Jin Fang, the number two in the army, and issuing arrest warrants for two other leaders, really showing, I think, very clearly how serious the Chinese side is in terms of wanting the military to try to crack down on this activity.  And despite all of that pressure, the military still failed to act. So I think very clearly you saw they’re going to launch this operation. What’s very significant about it is just how quickly the Brotherhood has been able to take major cities within 24 hours of the announcement of the operation. In my view, this was not something that was done quickly. This was a plan that was coordinated over probably a month or more. This operation is a very serious operation. And in order for the Brotherhood Alliance to do this, it would need to have at least tacit support from the Chinese side. And I believe it did have this in this case. Now, what’s really interesting about it is the way the Brotherhood Alliances framed this around cracking down on the transnational criminal activity and liberating people from these scam centers. And that does seem to be what a lot of the initial targets are that you are seeing, now the Brotherhood Alliance groups and PDFs go in, identify some of these centers and liberate the scam centers. So you are seeing some of that happening. But of course, I think the bigger issue here is that in Koh Kong, all eyes of the Myanmar army, the four eco Kong clan families that represent the COCOM border guard force have refused to do anything to crack down on this because this is the main source of revenue and a major source of revenue also for the military. And so now you’re seeing the Brotherhood really take this into their own hands. I think the other major factor here is that on one hand, you know, the entire country is watching this operation and they’re seeing how weak the Myanmar army is. You know, Myanmar army troops are going in and they’re defecting immediately, giving all of their arms over to the Brotherhood alliance. … And I think this is emboldening everyone. It’s letting everyone sort of see just how weak the military has become and how illegitimate it has become. Because the ultimate reason why the Chinese greenlighted this operation is because the junta has failed to take any steps to crack down on this awful transnational criminal activity, which is harming the interests of Thailand, harming the interests of China, harming the interests of really every country around the world. So in that respect, I think this really a game changer, because we’re at a point right now where the Chinese side has really reached a kind of a low point in terms of its relationship with the military junta.  Radio Free Asia: We know that China has played a very important role in the armed conflict in northern Myanmar. And also China has strong ties with members of Northern Alliance groups. So in this case in particular, what led you to the conclusion that China has given the green light to start this military operation? Tower: I think that the reason why China is comfortable with this operation is because the operation is framed around doing exactly what the Chinese side has been telling the Myanmar army to do for the past four months. But what the Myanmar army has refused to do, which is to crack down on the criminal activity, take down these scam syndicates, free the victims of human trafficking and so on. And so that’s, you know, the justification that the Brotherhood is giving for launching this operation. And you do see where it has yielded…

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China dominates in overseas ports: report

Editor05 mins

China has built a global network of commercial ports overseas that helps Beijing wield economic power as well as expand naval activities, a new report said. The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) think tank released an interactive report Monday tracking China’s control of overseas ports, some of which could double up as naval bases. In 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping first announced a plan for the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road as part of his ambitious Belt and Road Initiative to boost global connectivity and China’s access to foreign markets as around 95 percent of China’s international trade is being conducted through sea lanes. Ten years on, Chinese entities have now acquired equity ownership or operational stakes in 101 port projects across the world, 92 of which are active. Beijing has signed 70 bilateral and regional shipping agreements with 66 countries and regions. “China operates or has ownership in at least one port in every continent except Antarctica,” CFR said. The network of sea ports that China owns and operates bears an increasingly strategic importance, not least because of its potential dual use.  Among the 92 active projects, 13 have a major Chinese ownership. Ten of them have suitable infrastructure for future military use. Potential naval use Some projects with dual-use potential where China owns a majority share are in Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Peru and Brazil. However, “the growing scrutiny from the West could mean that building naval bases is not an effective way for the Communist Party of China (CPC) and the Chinese government to project power globally,” the CFR report said. “The real leverage of the CPC and the Chinese government over the West is not necessarily in building newer and bigger naval bases,” the authors said, adding that “China’s leverage is in its varied degrees of investment and ownership in the world’s busiest and most-connected ports, which underpin the global flow of goods.” A Chinese construction worker stands on land that was reclaimed from the Indian Ocean for the Colombo Port City project in Colombo, Sri Lanka, Jan. 2, 2018. Credit: AP Photo/Eranga Jayawardena China has already invested heavily in some of the most connected countries in the world such as South Korea and Singapore.  “China’s heavy investment in the world’s most-connected ports highlights its strong influence over the supply chains of global trade,” CFR added. Besides the network of ports, China also owns the largest fleet in the world. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy currently has 370 ships and submarines, according to a recent report by the Pentagon. To compare, the U.S. Navy has 291 ships.  The U.S. Defense Department also estimated that China’s fleet will grow to 395 ships by 2025 and 435 ships by 2030.  Edited by Elaine Chan and Taejun Kang.

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Displaced villagers face food shortages after attack in Myanmar

Editor03 mins

More than 30,000 Myanmar residents are fleeing after a battle erupted between junta forces and a resistance group, residents and aid workers told Radio Free Asia.  Junta airstrikes in Sagaing region’s Tabayin township forced locals to evacuate on Sunday. No deaths or injuries have been reported from junta media or local resistance groups. As a result, villages in the area are facing food shortages, said Moe Tain, head of Tabayin township’s war relief association. “All of them are from villages in the west of Tabayin township. More and more people are fleeing day by day and there is not enough food,” he told RFA on Wednesday. “Some of them have to search for food themselves.” A People’s Defense Force attacked Saing Pyin’s police station in Tabayin township on Sunday, causing both groups to exchange fire and locals to flee. Later that day, junta soldiers retaliated with airstrikes on Tabayin’s villages.  About 80 junta troops were stationed in Pyan Kya village in Tabayin township Tuesday afternoon and left on Wednesday, Moe Tain added. Residents from 15 villages nearby, including Pyan Kya, Let Tee and Ma Gyi Oke, fled after the clash started.  Tabayin residents faced two attacks in late October, where junta troops burned one village down and captured 15 civilians to use as human shields.  RFA called Sagaing region’s junta spokesperson Sai Naing Naing Kyaw for comment on the attacks, but did not receive a reply by the time of publication.  Translated by RFA Burmese. Edited by Mike Firn.

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Israel-Hamas war: How tech, social media spur misinformation

Editor012 mins

The adage “The first casualty when war comes is truth” remains as relevant today as it did when the U.S. Sen. Hiram Johnson first said it more than a century ago. The recent conflict between Israel and Hamas serves as a reminder of how truth can be overshadowed by falsehoods and propaganda during times of war. In the month since violence erupted, a second invisible battle has emerged online. Both sides are involved in spreading disinformation and fake news. Old images are being passed off as new. Video game footage is presented as reality. Credible news outlets like The New York Times have faced backlash over flawed reporting. While disinformation campaigns are nothing new in war, their efficiency today is unparalleled. Advances in AI have made it cheaper and simpler to generate deceptive, but convincing fabrications. As a result, impartial audiences find themselves grappling with the challenge of distinguishing fact from fiction. Faced with this flood of propaganda, numerous reports have examined its impact on domestic and international audiences. AFCL has reviewed several of these reports, highlighting how technology and social media enable online users and governments to take advantage of religious divides and cultural intolerance by spreading misinformation. The findings paint a troubling picture of truth obscured and tensions inflamed by the digital tools of modern war. AI muddles fact and fiction The weaponization of AI is muddying the waters of truth in the Israel-Hamas conflict. As revealed by Reuters, several viral images purporting to show support for Palestians or Israelis were actually AI-generated fakes, for instance, and these are only a tip of the iceberg.  A widely shared image of Israeli citizens hanging flags off balconies was proven to be generated by AI. (Original image saved by Reuters Fact Check team, annotated by AFCL) Furthermore, advanced “deepfake” technology has enabled the creation of fabricated footage, such as a video of the U.S. President Joe Biden claiming he would send American troops to aid Israel. More dangerous than the false information itself, experts warn these AI fabrications sow doubts about even verifiable facts.  As one AI researcher told The New York Times: “The real power of this technology is how it undermines truth and trust.” In an already polarized conflict, these insidious digital deceptions risk inflaming tensions by making truth itself seem unknowable. ‘Verified users’ lead in spreading misinformation Social media platforms have become hotbeds of misinformation amid the Israel-Hamas war. Services like X, formerly known as Twitter, are rife with unsubstantiated claims and outright falsehoods disseminated by both anonymous and supposedly “verified” users. On these digital battlegrounds, propaganda and lies gain traction faster than truth. One illustrative example comes from X user “Sprinter.” Originally blocked for spreading pro-Russian disinformation, Sprinter was reinstated under Elon Musk’s ownership and granted a blue verification checkmark. The user then falsely claimed the Wall Street Journal had reported that U.S.-made bombs were dropped on Gaza’s AI-Ahli Hospital. Ironically, this false claim received nearly six times more views than the American daily’s genuine tweet about the story earlier that day.  According to internet monitoring group NewsGuard, nearly three-fourths of the 250 most popular tweets containing misinformation in the first week of conflict were posted by verified users.  Jack Brewster, one of the authors of the report, told AFCL that unlike past wars which involved large amounts of automated accounts, he believes “overwhelmingly real individuals” are behind the current wave of disinformation. The X user Sprinter (right), spread misinformation that The Wall Street Journal had reported an attack on a Gaza hospital was conducted with U.S.-made artillery shells. X  afterwards annotated the post to include a rebuttal of the claim by the WSJ itself. (Screenshot/Sprinter’s and official WSJ X accounts) Business model for monetization In their quest to maximize revenue, social media platforms have instituted business models that reward viral lies over verifiable facts, and experts warn these profit-driven decisions fundamentally undermine platforms’ role as trusted spaces for public discourse. NewsGuard cited X’s new business model as an example. X users who subscribe to a premium account can obtain the blue checkmark while also having their posts prioritized in other users’ feeds. The company further announced in July 2023 that premium users with at least 500 followers who received 5 million impressions on their posts within three months would be eligible for ad profit-sharing. Mike Caulfield, a specialist in social media and disinformation at the University of Washington, told AFCL that online misinformation will become more prevalent as long as businesses can profit from it.  Leveraging social media  Beyond the direct combatants, social media users across the world leverage platforms to advance favored narratives about the Israel-Hamas war. Their agenda-driven posts flood networks with biased misinformation. Pro-Hamas voices spotlight Gaza hospital bombings to paint Israel as evil, a disinformation expert told Reuters, while pro-Israel users accuse Palestinians of faking injuries to discredit their suffering. Even supposedly neutral parties take sides online. The Digital Forensic Research Lab, a division of the Atlantic Council, found that at least 25 X accounts claiming to be located in India coordinated posting identical tweets and videos about the conflict at nearly the same time.  Though mostly pro-Israel in content, some accounts bizarrely shared pro-Palestine messages shortly after pro-Isreal messages. By flooding platforms with contradictory claims, these users advance their own agendas, irrespective of consistency or truth.  The Digital Forensics Research Lab found multiple X accounts claiming to be based in India had released coordinated posts containing identical disinformation about the war. (Screenshots taken from The Digital Forensic Research Lab) Despite its large Muslim population, anti-Muslim sentiment among India’s Hindu majority runs high. Islamophobic rhetoric backed by the country’s ruling right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party and current Prime Minister Narendra Modi is creating anti-Palestinian attitudes and a flood of misinformation during the current conflict, according to an Al Jazeera article.  Meanwhile, misinformation coming out of Indonesia is heavily pro-Palestinian. As Voice of America analysis found, the country’s Muslim majority population and widespread pro-Palestine views among Indonesian leaders shape social media narratives…

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Five dead, over 1,000 trapped in Myanmar city battle

Editor07 mins

Fighting between the Myanmar military and resistance groups in Sagaing region continued Monday after junta airstrikes over the previous three days killed  at least five civilians, one armed group told Radio Free Asia.  The battle began Friday, when three allied groups attacked a school campus and other buildings where junta troops were stationed.  The Arakan Army, Kachin Independence Army and People’s Defense Forces attacked the school before dawn. The group also targeted a police station and administration office in Sagaing region’s Kawlin township. The junta reacted by calling in airstrikes killing and injuring several civilians, said Kawlin city locals.  A junta jet attacked Hpa Le village in Kawlin township on Friday night, killing 34-year-old Naing Min Oo. The following day, the junta carried out more than 10 airstrikes, damaging buildings and killing two people, according to Kawlin-based defense groups.  And on Sunday morning, a fighter jet enroute from Mandalay region’s Tada-U township opened fire on Kawlin city.  Defense forces have reportedly rescued more than 10,000 residents trapped in the city since Friday. There were still more than 1,500 people trapped as of Sunday morning due to heavy airstrikes near the city’s high school, a local resident who wished to remain anonymous for fear of reprisals told RFA. “The situation in the morning was that they were still fighting with the junta army. A jet came often and opened fire. A jet dropped bombs in the morning,” the local said. “People were trapped and some were injured due to the junta’s aerial bombardment. When civilians were trying to leave toward the eastern part of the city, junta soldiers arrived and the locals were trapped.” Residents who could not escape had to hide in houses during the fighting, he added. Aid workers are still trying to evacuate the people trapped in the city, said a rescue worker, who asked not to be named for security reasons. “People are being evacuated as much as possible. Some were evacuated on Sunday morning. All the phone lines were cut, some people were outside [the war zone], but they were still out of contact,” they said. “The junta troops are stationed around the city’s general administrative office now.” Residents from Kawlin’s surrounding villages also fled, bringing the total number of people forced to abandon their homes to nearly 100,000, according to the rescue worker.  Fighting has also prevented aid workers from collecting bodies in the area and they have not been able to accurately count the number of people who died since the initial blasts on Friday. “Junta troops are stationed in high-rise buildings. They shoot people if they come out on the street,” the rescue worker said. “There are people who have died due to the junta’s shooting. They use people as human shields.” The battle is taking longer than expected because of the combined junta ground and air attack, said a member of Kawlin township’s People’s Defense Force (PDF), who wished to remain anonymous for security reasons. “There is a hospital next to the general administration office, and the Number Two High School is next to the hospital. The defense forces took up positions for more than 200 meters and are fighting fiercely to capture the junta’s camp,” they said.  “The four sides of the General Administrative Office were surrounded by our PDF troops. But we still can not get close because junta troops have strong bunkers and weapons. A jet came to open fire every 30 minutes, and we had to retreat when the jet flew in.” The junta has not released any information about the attacks in Kawlin. RFA’s calls to Sagaing region’s junta spokesperson Sai Naing Naing Kyaw went unanswered on Sunday. At noon on Monday, some allied forces and locals claimed that resistance forces had finally taken control of Kawlin city, but RFA has not been able to independently confirm this.  Translated by RFA Burmese. Edited by Mike Firn.

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Investigative Journalism Reportika © March 2022 by Ij-Reportika is licensed under CC BY 4.0