Defying China’s threats and rejecting its campaign to isolate Taiwan, U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi landed on the self-ruled island for a visit. An angry Beijing, which claims sovereignty over Taiwan, conducted air-and-sea military drills to the east of the island and announced live-fire war games to run for four days after her trip. Polls show scant support in Taiwan for any merger between the democratic island and Communist China.
Lawmakers in Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan expressed cross-party support for U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit, rejecting threats from Beijing amid an ongoing debate on the democratic island about the strength of its ties with the United States. Opposition Kuomintang lawmaker Chiang Wan-an said Beijing, which announced live-fire military exercises on the eve of Pelosi’s arrival, has no right to prevent sovereign countries from having international visitors. “The Republic of China is a sovereign and independent country,” Chiang said, using the formal name of Taiwan’s government that dates back to the 1911 revolution under Sun Yat-sen. “Congress in particular represents the people, so there are mutual visits,” he said. “Such an overreaction by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is unnecessary.” “We also hope that the relevant parties can guard against the escalation of military tensions around Taiwan,” Chiang said. Ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lawmaker Lo Chih-cheng said Pelosi’s visit would significantly boost Taiwan’s faith in the U.S.’ commitment to its security, however, Taiwan’s official Central News Agency (CNA) reported. Chiu Hsien-chih of the New Power Party, said the visit would likely pave the way for the U.S.’ unequivocal support for Taiwan in the future, the agency said. But Chieh Chung, an associate researcher at Taiwan’s National Policy Research Foundation, warned of possible incursions by Chinese military aircraft during Pelosi’s visit. “Sending planes into Taiwan’s airspace will cause even more conflict,” Chieh told. “I think the CCP’s purpose is to make a strong impression on Taiwan and the area around it, not to actually create conflict [but] to make the situation very tense with a high-intensity show of force.” “But the purpose will probably be a show of force or the threat of it,” he added. A U.S. military aircraft with US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on board prepares to land at Songshan Airport in Taipei on August 2, 2022. Credit: AFP Missile launches possible Chieh said regular incursions were likely across the median line of the Taiwan Strait, particularly at its narrower sections. “July, August and September usually see intensive periods of advanced tactical training for the CCP army, so they may just adjust the timing of some exercises,” Chieh said. “At the same time, we could see a large-scale missile test launch, even of DF-17, YJ-21 or DF-21D anti-ship missiles, which could be tested on sea targets,” he added. He said the main concern was the threat of military accidents or miscalculations sparking full military conflict. “Accidents are a concern when you have such a high density of military activities in the same area,” Chieh said. “Any unexpected incident could cause a sudden and rapid escalation in the situation, which could even trigger an unexpected military conflict.” “That’s what we should be most worried about right now.” Kuan-ting Chen of the Taiwan Next-Gen Foundation think tank, said there is an ongoing debate within Taiwan about how best to win greater international recognition and participation in the face of the threat of Chinese invasion. Chen said that China’s military expenditure has jumped from about 80 billion yuan in the late 1980s to 1,476 billion yuan in 2022, an 18-fold increase. “There will be a debate within Taiwan about how to ensure peace in the Taiwan Strait and the stability of the government regardless of the circumstances,” Chen told. “[It’s about] ensuring that there are no changes to the living standards, economy or political life because of [tensions with China],” he said. Widespread public support Associate professor Huang Kui-po of Taiwan’s National Chengchi University said Pelosi’s visit seems to have garnered fairly widespread public support in Taiwan, despite the military threats from Beijing. “The reason for the support is that Congress is an elected body, and the representatives of the people from both Taiwan and the United States should visit each other,” Huang said. “Another faction believes that Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan may raise tensions in the Taiwan Strait,” he said. “But tensions are going to rise sooner or later; there could be a ripple effect.” Much of the public debate appears to be around a lack of certainty that the U.S. would commit to a full-scale military involvement in Taiwan’s defense, should China invade. The Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation found in an April 2022 poll that a majority of 53.8 percent of Taiwanese adult do not believe there will be a U.S. military intervention in the event of a Chinese invasion, while only 36.3 percent said they believe there would be. Paul Huang, research fellow at the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation, wrote in a recent op-ed article that public confidence in U.S. military support had “decisively turned skeptical” following the lack of intervention in Ukraine following the Russian invasion. “The lack of a direct US military intervention to help Ukraine (despite all kinds of military and non-military aid, intelligence sharing, and other assistance) had a major impact on the Taiwanese public’s confidence in U.S. military intervention and drove a significant number, as much as a quarter of the Taiwanese, toward non-confidence,” Huang wrote for Inkstick Media. Meanwhile, the majority of the Taiwanese public has been very sympathetic toward Ukraine and is highly supportive of Western-led sanctions against Russia, Huang wrote. A majority of supporters of President Tsai Ing-wen’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) do believe in U.S. intervention, while 70 percent of “government workers” who include those on active military service don’t, Huang said, citing recent polls. Punishing Taiwan, not the US Yujen Kuo of Taiwan’s Institute for National Policy Research said any meeting between Pelosi and Tsai will be of “great historic significance” for many in Taiwan, however. “So far, the White House and the State Department have been quite cautious, but Pelosi visiting Taiwan will set a new paradigm,” Kuo said. But he warned that any response from China will likely seek to punish Taiwan rather than the U.S. “I worried about [Chinese] military exercise around the median line of the Taiwan Strait, because this has never happened before, and if a large…
Russia on Tuesday backed Beijing’s disapproval of an expected visit by U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi to the democratic island of Taiwan, calling it a “provocation,” as China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) engaged in live-fire military exercises across the Taiwan Strait. Foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told a news briefing that Moscow opposes Taiwanese independence “in any form.” Her comments came as the official media of the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) made no mention of escalating tensions across the Taiwan Strait after Chinese leader Xi Jinping warned President Joe Biden not to “play with fire” ahead of Pelosi’s planned arrival on Tuesday evening. Neither the People’s Liberation Army Daily nor the CCP’s official newspaper, the People’s Daily, made any mention of the story, with the People’s Daily leading with agricultural developments in Fujian. However, the English-language Global Times ran a top story titled “Tension escalates hours ahead of Pelosi’s potential Taiwan visit as PLA remains fully prepared for any crisis.” It said any visit by Pelosi would be “a serious provocation and violation to China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity which would be met with severe countermeasures from the Chinese military.” The article largely repeated comments also made on Tuesday by Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying. It also cited a maritime safety warning to shipping reporting live-fire military exercises off Weifang in the Bohai Sea on Aug. 3, while “military training in parts of the South China Sea” was reported by the Guangdong maritime authorities. The paper’s former editor Hu Xijin tweeted on Tuesday: “Based on what I know, in response to Pelosi’s possible visit to Taiwan, Beijing has formulated a series of countermeasures, including military actions.” Hu also tweeted on Monday: “If she dares to stop in Taiwan, it will be the moment to ignite the powder keg of the situation in the Taiwan Straits.” Tacit understanding? Current affairs commentator Johnny Lau said he expects there is more likely to be a tacit understanding between Beijing and Washington enabling Xi to step up the appearance of military threat to boost his support at home. “Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan is highly beneficial to Xi Jinping, who is taking the opportunity ensure that top military and political figures must unite around him ahead of the 20th CCP national congress [later this year],” Lau said. “The mainland could have the PLA’s planes cross over the median line of the Taiwan Strait, and neither the U.S. nor Taiwan will attack them,” he said. “Both sides know where the lines are drawn, and whoever fires the first shot will be responsible [for starting a war],” he said. “Everyone is flexing their muscle in what is both a political show and a military gesture aimed at certain circles,” Lau said. Wu Qiang, an independent researcher at Beijing’s Tsinghua University, said China could also announce sanctions on members of the Congressional delegation, including Pelosi, including banning them from entering China. “If the Chinese ministry of foreign affairs imposes sanctions after Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, it would be no more than the sanctions imposed on other U.S. politicians in recent years,” Wu said. “They could ban them from entering China or Hong Kong, freeze their assets there, and ban companies from doing business with their families,” Wu said. Diplomacy failures He said Beijing has little other recourse short of military action. “Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan marks an unprecedented change in Sino-U.S. relations, which is of course due to the failure of Chinese diplomacy [in recent years],” he said. China has also suspended imports from 35 Taiwanese exporters of biscuits and pastries since Monday. Taiwan’s Central News Agency reported on Tuesday that China has listed 2,066 foodstuffs as being subject to “import suspension.” Wu said such trade sanctions would likely continue as international support for the democratic island, which has never been ruled by the CCP, nor formed part of the People’s Republic of China, grows. He said China could also try to restrict international maritime access to the Taiwan Strait. “They could declare that the Taiwan Strait is China’s territorial waters, and its airspace part of China’s airspace, and say that foreign vessels [or aircraft] must get approval from China to enter them,” Wu said. International relations scholar Zhong Shan agreed. “China will definitely react in some way, maybe by including Taiwan in its Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) … with military aircraft flying over or around the island,” Zhong said. “It’s fairly easy for the foreign ministry to whip up populist sentiment, but it’s not so easy to suppress it again,” he said. Translated and edited by Luisetta Mudie.
Thai natural gas project suspended after pipeline carrying gas from Myanmar to Thailand has exploded twice in three days, according to locals.
Religious freedom in China is in a state of peril. The primary reason is that Chinese authorities never miss any opportunity to crack down on religion. Over the past year alone, China has detained Muslim for showing their faith, forced Buddhists to pledge allegiance to the ruling Communist Party, and coerced Christian churches to take down their crosses or shut down.
The Taiwanese military has stepped up its combat readiness to prepare for threats from China ahead of the U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s potential visit to the island, local media reported. At the same time, the U.S. aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan and its strike group is operating near Taiwan, a Chinese think-tank said. Taiwan’s official Central News Agency (CNA) quoted anonymous “reliable sources” as saying that from 08:00 a.m. on Tuesday until 12:00 noon on Thursday the military will “strengthen combat readiness” of troops and make adjustments in accordance to the threats from China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Taiwan’s armed forces operate at two levels of combat readiness for peacetime and wartime, each level comprises several stages. It is understood that the current stage of preparedness is still within the peacetime level but could change. The island’s Ministry of National Defense has yet to make any comment on the news that comes as China announced more live-fire exercises in the South China Sea and Bohai Sea. On Tuesday morning several Chinese military aircraft and warships came close to the median line of the Taiwan Strait – the tacit maritime border between Taiwan and the mainland – Reuters said, quoting an anonymous source. This move is “unusual” and can be seen as “very provocative,” the source was quoted as saying. Taiwan’s defense ministry said the island’s military has a “full grasp” of activities near Taiwan and “will appropriately dispatch forces in reaction to enemy threats.” Aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan conducted a replenishment-at-sea in the Philippine Sea on July 31. CREDIT: U.S. Navy 7th Fleet. USS Ronald Reagan in the Philippine Sea Meanwhile on Tuesday the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan has been sailing in the northern Philippine Sea, east of Taiwan, China’s South China Sea Probing Initiative (SCSPI) think-tank said, tracking the latest flight trajectory of the carrier-borne C-2A Greyhound cargo aircraft. On Monday and Tuesday China announced four more live-fire drills on top of four exercises that ended at the weekend. The first one is being held in the South China Sea near Hainan Island on Aug. 1 until Aug. 6, the same period of Pelosi’s Asia tour. The other three live-fire drills are in the Bohai Sea, the first from Aug. 1 to Aug. 4, the second on Aug. 3, and the third from Aug. 4 to Aug. 6. On Sunday, just one day before Pelosi began her Asia trip, the PLA also conducted mock air combat training after midnight “with the aim of improving the pilots’ ability to quickly enter combat status for abnormal situations at any time,” the state-supported Global Times reported. RFA sources, and sources cited by local media and America’s CNN, said Nancy Pelosi would make an unofficial trip on Tuesday evening to the island, which is not on her official four-nation itinerary. China issued fresh warnings that the visit “would lead to serious consequences.” “If Pelosi visits Taiwan, the Chinese side will respond resolutely and take strong countermeasures to defend our sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Chinese Foreign Ministry’s spokesman Zhao Lijian told a press conference in Beijing on Monday. “As for what those measures will be, let’s see what happens if she actually goes,” Zhao added. In Washington, the White House and the top U.S. diplomat said Pelosi’s travel plans were up to her, but urged China not to turn any such visit to Taiwan into a diplomatic crisis. Pelosi’s right to visit Taiwan “The speaker has the right to visit Taiwan, and a speaker of the House has visited Taiwan before, without incident, as have many members of Congress, including this year,” said national security spokesman John Kirby. “There is no reason for Beijing to turn a potential visit consistent with long-standing U.S. policy into some sort of crisis or conflict, or use it as a pretext to increase aggressive military activity in or around the Taiwan Strait,” he told reporters. Kirby said Washington would not be moved by any Chinese effort to raise tensions over Pelosi. “We will not take the bait or engage in saber rattling. At the same time, we will not be intimidated,” he said. Taiwan’s presidential office and foreign ministry have both declined to comment on any visit by Pelosi, although premier Su Chen-chang has said the island’s government, which still uses the name of the 1911 Republic of China, will welcome any foreign VIP guests. The United States does not recognize Taiwan diplomatically, but retains close unofficial ties with Taipei and is obligated by law to provide it with defense capabilities. Beijing considers the self-ruling, democratic island a breakaway province, to be united with the mainland by force if necessary, and objects strongly to high-level U.S. visits.
An 18-year-old student who died on her way to school, when her scooter hit an army vehicle, was not drunk enough for that to be the cause of the crash, according to a doctor who spoke with RFA. Ho Hoang Anh collided with a seven-seater military carrier driven by Maj. Hoang Van Minh of the 937th regiment, 370th division, as she went to pick up a permit for her final exam. The crash threw Ho from her scooter, smashing her head into an electricity pole and she died on the way to hospital. Security camera video from the scent showed the army people carrier turning right into a slope and colliding with the scooter. Video of the crash went viral on social media with many blaming the army officer for the girl’s death. More than two weeks after the June 28 accident the girl’s father released the blood alcohol test results he received from the police. They showed her alcohol level was 0.79 milligrams per 100 milliliters of blood. Despite the low alcohol level, many people on social media said the release of the test result was an attempt to exonerate the army officer by implying that drink was to blame. Doctor and social activist Dinh Duc Long said the alcohol concentration was too low to affect Ho’s driving ability. “According to Decree No. 100/2019/ND-CP of the Government, the administrative fine level starts to apply to road users when having an alcohol concentration in blood of 50 milligrams to 100 milliliters,” he said. “Thus, the Scientific Council of Ninh Thuan Provincial General Hospital should publicly conclude that the blood alcohol concentration of the victim is normal according to the standards of the Ministry of Health.” A local paper quoted Bui Van Ky, deputy director of the Ninh Thuan Department of Health, as saying that according to Decision 320 of the Ministry of Health, blood/alcohol levels less than 50.23 milligrams per100 milliliters are considered to have no alcohol content. He also said foods such as fruit, yogurt or carbonated soft drinks can also cause small amounts of alcohol to be present in the blood. “It is necessary to conduct experiments at the scene to conclude who violated the road traffic law causing death,” Dr Long told RFA, adding that not everyone who is drunk causes traffic accidents. Lawyer Nguyen Kha Thanh said it was more important to discover whether the girl was observing traffic regulations than to test her blood for alcohol. “Even if the female student had a high blood alcohol concentration, if she followed the law and did not encroach on the road, the person who collided with her would still be responsible for the accident,” he said Ho’s father was enraged on hearing the blood alcohol results. He immediately filed a complaint asking for a review of claims his daughter’s drinking caused the crash, and spoke with many newspapers to make the point that alcohol was not to blame. After receiving Ho Hoang Hung’s petition the People’s Committee of Ninh Thuan province asked the provincial police to carry out an urgent investigation to verify the blood/alcohol test result. The military criminal investigation agency issued a notice on July 25, asking for witnesses to the accident.
A photographer known for documenting anti-junta protests and other activities has died in custody after being detained by authorities in Myanmar’s embattled Sagaing region over the weekend, family members and friends said Monday. Aye Kyaw, 48, who runs the Hayman Photography studio in Sagaing’s former capital, Sagaing city, was arrested by junta troops who arrived at his home in a convoy of six military vehicles at 2 a.m. on July 30, citing a “tip” that there were weapons stashed there, his relatives told RFA Burmese. Sources close to Aye Kyaw said that the administrator of Aung Chanthar ward, where the photographer lived, contacted his family around noon the same day to inform them that he had died and that his body was being held in the mortuary of Sagaing City Hospital. The family members were told they “could retrieve it if you want it, or leave it there.” An official from the Ohbo Health and Social Assistance Association, a charity burial service in Sagaing, told RFA that his group had taken Aye Kyaw’s body from the hospital to a religious hall in Aung Chanthar ward to prepare it for burial. “We took the body, as requested [by the family], from the morgue and sent it to the village ‘zayat’ (religious hall),” said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity. “We didn’t see any superficial wounds on the body but I noticed his chest was sewn up like a postmortem. I didn’t see any injuries or leaking body fluids.” He said that the family buried Aye Kyaw on Sunday. Another friend of Aye Kyaw’s family, who also declined to be named, told RFA that soldiers had searched the photographer’s home for weapons during his arrest but found nothing. “The army came in six cars and arrested him. Three were outside, three entered the compound,” the source said. “[The troops] said they would shoot if the gate was not opened. They searched the entire house but they found nothing. Nothing at all.” The source said Aye Kyaw’s body was “left outside” by staff at the hospital for the Ohbo Health and Social Assistance Association to pick up and bring to his family. “We didn’t see any injuries on the face but there were dark bruises on the ribs and back,” the source said. “He was a jolly, easy-going man and had a lot of friends. When they heard his news, they were all shocked.” Aye Kyaw was a member of the Upper Myanmar Photography Association. Credit: Hay Marn Documenting a coup Aye Kyaw, who was a member of the Upper Myanmar Photography Association, was known for documenting protests and other anti-junta activities in the aftermath of the military’s Feb. 1, 2021 coup. He would post his photography to social media, where it was regularly shared by politicians and the local media. Members of Aye Kyaw’s photography group on Monday expressed sadness over his death, which is the latest of 137 that have occurred within days of detention or during interrogation by authorities since the coup, according to RFA’s count. A resident of Sagaing, who did not want to be named for security reasons, said people in the city are “living in fear” because of incidents such as Aye Kyaw’s death in custody. “I worked with Aye Kyaw during the protests in Sagaing and we took photos together. I feel horrible,” he said. The resident said that Aye Kyaw’s body showed no signs of external injuries, leading him to believe that his fellow photographer died “due to extreme torture.” “What happens here in Sagaing is that we see arbitrary arrests and killings when a military column comes and finds something they don‘t like,” he said. “There is no law. The law comes from the barrel of the gun. They do whatever they want. We feel like the death penalty has been delivered whenever the army columns approach.” The resident said that Aye Kyaw’s case marks the first time in Sagaing that a person has died within hours of being arrested by the junta. Calls by RFA to junta Deputy Information Minister Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun and the spokesman for Sagaing Region Social Affairs Minister Aye Hlaing went unanswered Monday. According to Bangkok-based NGO Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, junta forces have killed at least 2,142 civilians since the coup and arrested nearly 15,000, mostly during peaceful anti-junta protests. Translated by Khin Maung Nyane. Written in English by Joshua Lipes.
Exploitative online money lending networks are increasingly preying on poor Cambodian women on social media to trap them into debt and blackmail them by posting nude photos and videos of them online, a Cambodian human rights organization said Monday. The Cambodian League for the Promotion and Defense of Human Rights (Licadho) said in a report on its website that it helped three women in the past year who were harassed by informal online lenders after they had borrowed small amounts to pay for health care or other expenses. “Licadho interviewed three female victims last year, but there are many more women who have reported to us,” Am Sam Ath, Licadho’s director general, told RFA Monday. “But, for their honor and dignity, they want to hide their identities. Their cases are similar.” Exploitative online lenders thrive in countries like Cambodia where people struggle to pay informal fees and costs for health care and education. Private debt levels there skyrocketed to 174% of the country’s GDP as of March, and repayment of the debt has resulted in coerced land sales, unsafe migration and human rights abuses, Licadho said. The women who went to Licadho for help borrowed sums as small as U.S. $50, but were given high interest rates and vague terms that increased the amounts they had to repay. Other lenders contacted the women via the instant messaging appTelegram with new loan offers. The predatory lenders then harassed friends and relatives of the women to pressure them to pay off their debt. At that point, a new group called Loanly stepped in and offered the women large loans so they could repay the smaller debt, but only if the women sent nude photographs or videos of themselves via Telegram, along with their location and identity documents. Seeing no other way out, the women downloaded Loanly’s application, which granted the group access to their phone contacts. But they received hundreds of dollars less than promised via the mobile banking app eMoney, with Loanly claiming the rest was deducted as fees. One of the women borrowed U.S. $1,000 from Loanly, received less than U.S. $600 after undefined fees, and then paid the group almost U.S. $1,400, though the harassment continued, Licadho said. Loanly then harassed the women and their associates by phone, posted photos of their families on Facebook, and added them to Telegram groups where other women’s nude photos were being shared, Licadho said. Loanly distributed naked photos of one of the women in a Telegram group. “The lenders threaten to publicize naked photos or videos to extort money from the victims, who would feel humiliated and disgraced among friends or family if the images were to go public,” said Am Sam Ath. Though the women filed official complaints with extensive evidence, the Ministry of Interior’s Anti-Cyber Crime Department has not taken any action against the predatory online lenders or held them accountable for their crimes, Licadho said. While Loanly’s application no longer appears to be available, the online loan groups continue to target and harass Cambodians on Facebook and Telegram. “This creates impunity and has intensified fear among the victims,” Am Sam Ath said. “Licadho’s report is meant to warn social media users to be aware of this problem and not to be deceived.” To stop predatory lending, the rights group has called on the Cambodian government to properly regulate formal and informal lending and provide accessible basic social services. Licadho repeated a previous call for the Anti Cyber Crime Department to conduct rapid and thorough investigations to ensure justice in accordance with Cambodian law. It also called on Facebook and Telegram to prevent their platforms from being used for gender-based violence and criminal activity. Translated by Sok Ry Sum for RFA Khmer. Written in English by Roseanne Gerin.
Any visit by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who is currently leading a congressional delegation on an Asian tour, to Taiwan would lead to “very serious developments and consequences,” China warned Monday, the eve of an expected visit to the democratic island. While Taiwan wasn’t on Pelosi’s official four-country itinerary, RFA sources and sources cited by local media and CNN said she would make an unofficial trip late on Tuesday to the island, which has never been ruled by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) nor formed part of the People’s Republic of China. But even an unofficial stopover would be regarded by Beijing as “a gross interference in China’s internal affairs,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian told reporters. “We would like to tell the United States once again that China is standing by, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army will never sit idly by, and China will take resolute responses and strong countermeasures to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Zhao said. “If she dares to go, wait and see what happens,” he told a regular news briefing in Beijing. The Trump administration announced in January 2021 that the U.S. was lifting curbs that had been in place since Washington cut ties with Taipei in favor of Beijing in 1979, saying Washington would no longer “appease” Beijing. President Joe Biden has previously said China is ‘flirting with danger’ with its ongoing threat to annex Taiwan, saying the U.S. is committed to defending the island in the event of a Chinese invasion, a statement U.S. officials later framed as an interpretation of the existing terms of the Taiwan Relations Act requiring Washington to ensure the island has the means to defend itself. But Biden struck a more conciliatory note in a phone call last Friday with CCP leader Xi Jinping, saying U.S. policy hadn’t changed, and that Washington doesn’t support full international recognition for Taiwan’s sovereignty. Xi warned Biden that “those who play with fire get burnt.” Taiwan’s presidential office and foreign ministry have both declined to comment on any visit by Pelosi, although premier Su Chen-chang has said the island’s government, which still uses the name of the 1911 Republic of China, will welcome any foreign VIP guests. “We extend a warm welcome to foreign VIPs who come to visit our country; we will make the best possible arrangements for their visit, and also respect their plans when arranging the schedule,” Su told reporters. Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong (R) shakes hands with U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi at the Istana Presidential Palace in Singapore during a visit to the Asia-Pacific region, Aug. 1, 2022. Credit: Singapore’s Ministry of Communications and Information / AFP More saber-rattling Drew Thompson, a former U.S. defense official and senior visiting fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, said via his Twitter account that he expects Pelosi to make an unofficial stop in Taiwan after her visit to Malaysia. While Beijing privately considers this an acceptable outcome, Thompson said the PLA could launch high-profile reconnaissance flights around Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), a form of saber-rattling that has become commonplace in recent years. Former Taiwanese civil aviation director Chang Kuo-cheng said Pelosi’s aircraft won’t be allowed to enter Taiwan’s airspace, so much take a roundabout route via airspace controlled by the Philippines, the U.S. and Japan. “She will not pass through our airspace,” Chang said. “If she tries, China may take action; something they have long prepared.” Tao Yi-fen, an associate professor of politics at National Taiwan University, said Pelosi’s visit could still prompt Xi to take action, regardless of the route Pelosi takes if she visits. “The CCP is about to hold the 20th party congress, so if Xi Jinping does nothing after issuing all of those warnings, it could have a negative impact on his bid for a further term in office at the party congress,” Tao said. Taiwan resident Hsiao Wu said the war of words is largely being manufactured by Beijing, created by the CCP’s insistence on annexing Taiwan, by force if necessary. “Every now and then, I will get Chinese friends asking me if [Taiwan] really wants a war,” Wu said. “But no, we don’t. Our side is peaceful.” “If the PLA really scrambles to fly alongside [Pelosi’s] flight or target-locks their missiles, then that would be an overreaction,” he said. “[Nonetheless], if a person of her rank comes to Taiwan, regardless of what they want to talk about, it will show support and a good attitude to Taiwan, and boost its [international] image,” Wu said. External distractions Meanwhile, a Chinese student in Canada said the CCP needs an external distraction from an imploding real estate market and weak economic performance in the wake of Xi’s zero-COVID policy. “Social conflicts are more acute in China now … it needs to engage in some provocations … and strengthen domestic controls so as to shore up social stability,” the student said. “The more conflicts at home intensify, the more they will project them outwards.” Current affairs commentator Fang Wenxiang agreed. “I think that [China’s] ‘wolf-warrior’ diplomacy has affected all areas of government now,” Fang said. “Ministry of defense spokesmen used to be very cautious, but now they’re coming out with unreasonable statements, from which it will be hard to back down.” Wu Qiang, independent researcher at Beijing’s Tsinghua University, said the official response seems to be changing from day to day since the row over Pelosi’s trip blew up. “[The official line] is changing from day to day, and it colored by opportunism and ambiguity,” Wu said. “It seems they have reached their rhetorical limit for the time being, because they don’t want to cause political shocks or turmoil in China ahead of the 20th party congress.” “Nor do they want an expansion of popular nationalism off the back of Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan … the CCP is being cautious about nationalistic sentiment ahead of the 20th party…
