The world is indeed experiencing a resurgence of proxy conflicts, where major powers exert influence indirectly through smaller, often less stable, nations. This is part of a broader geopolitical strategy, allowing these big powers to avoid direct confrontation while still advancing their global interests. Historically, this is not a new phenomenon, but it has taken on a new intensity with current global tensions.
What best describes a proxy war?
A proxy war is like a war between two countries, where major powers avoid direct conflict, using smaller nations and unstable regions as battlegrounds. From Ukraine to the Middle East, Africa, and beyond, global powers exert influence through proxy wars and indirect conflicts.
Why do countries use proxy wars?
- Avoid direct fighting: They don’t want to fight their own soldiers.
- Control the outcome: They want to help one side win.
- Test things: They want to try out new weapons or strategies.
While proxy wars can be complex and often involve geopolitical motivations, there are also significant economic benefits associated with arms sales. These benefits can include:
- Job creation: The manufacturing of weapons and related equipment can create jobs in various industries, including metalworking, engineering, and technology.
- Economic growth: Arms sales can contribute to a country’s GDP, especially for countries with a strong defense industry.
- Technological advancement: The development of new weapons systems can lead to advancements in technology that can be applied to other industries.
- Foreign policy influence: Arms sales can be used to strengthen relationships with other countries and to influence their foreign policies.
Let’s break down some of the key examples of the Proxy Wars in the contemporary world :
- Ukraine vs. Russia (NATO vs. Russia): The conflict between Ukraine and Russia is widely seen as a battleground between Western powers (NATO, the US, and EU) and Russia. Ukraine, backed by substantial military and financial aid from NATO countries, stands as a proxy for the West, trying to prevent Russian expansionism. For Russia, this war is about securing its borders and asserting influence over former Soviet territories.
- Afghanistan (US Proxy): Afghanistan was a proxy theater for the US throughout the Cold War against the Soviet Union, where the US funded and supported the Afghan Mujahideen in their fight against Soviet forces. Even post-9/11, Afghanistan remained a proxy battleground as the US tried to stabilize the country, only for it to fall into chaos again after the US withdrawal in 2021.
- Syria (Russian Proxy): The Syrian civil war has become another site of proxy conflict. Russia’s intervention to support Bashar al-Assad’s regime has turned Syria into a key Russian foothold in the Middle East. Meanwhile, the US, Turkey, and several Gulf states supported different factions in Syria, turning the civil war into a broader geopolitical struggle.
- Middle East (US vs. Russia): Smaller Middle Eastern nations have long been proxies in the broader geopolitical rivalry between the US and Russia. Nations like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel have been close US allies, while Iran, and previously Iraq, leaned towards Russia. These rivalries are often manifested in indirect wars, such as the ongoing proxy battle between Saudi Arabia and Iran in Yemen.
- Pakistan (US/China Proxy): Pakistan has shifted alliances over time. During the Cold War and the War on Terror, Pakistan was a critical ally of the US. However, in recent years, it has grown closer to China, largely due to economic assistance through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and shared security interests, particularly regarding India. China’s support has included infrastructure development, military aid, and even nuclear cooperation.
- North Korea (Chinese Proxy): North Korea has long been a thorn in the side of the US, and China has used its influence over the North Korean regime to maintain regional stability while keeping the US and South Korea in check. Pyongyang’s provocative missile tests and nuclear ambitions serve Beijing’s purpose by distracting the West, without China having to engage directly.
- Libya (Russia and Turkey Proxies): In the chaos following Gaddafi’s fall, both Russia (through the Wagner group) and Turkey support rival factions in an ongoing civil conflict.
- Venezuela (Russian and Chinese Proxy): Venezuela has received substantial financial, military, and political backing from both Russia and China, countering US influence in Latin America.
- Yemen (Saudi Proxy vs. Iranian Proxy): A civil war that has become a proxy conflict between Saudi Arabia (backed by the US) and Iran.
Africa: The New Geopolitical Chessboard
Africa, is another complex proxy theater. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) saw massive infrastructure investments across Africa, but there have been setbacks due to debt issues, political instability, and pushback from local governments. Despite these challenges, China remains a dominant power in African economic affairs, with investments in key sectors like mining, infrastructure, and telecommunications. Meanwhile, the US, France, and Russia (via private military companies like Wagner) are also vying for influence, making Africa a battleground for economic and political control.
The Nature of Modern Proxies:
In this “Era of Proxies,” big powers avoid direct military confrontation to mitigate risks of global wars, particularly nuclear conflicts. Instead, they rely on economic aid, military support, political alliances, and indirect warfare through smaller states, which act as intermediaries. This also creates a buffer, making it easier for larger powers to distance themselves from conflict outcomes while still influencing global dynamics.
In conclusion, the current global landscape is marked by indirect confrontations. These proxy conflicts are not only a way to project power but also serve as avenues for larger powers to test new technologies, strategies, and alliances. As this trend continues, smaller nations will increasingly find themselves caught in the crossfire of global geopolitics, sometimes to their detriment.
Report by Josphine Coy
