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High stakes, low expectations as top US diplomat opens China visit
UPDATED AT 02:00 pm EDT on 2023-06-18 U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken opened a high-stakes visit to China on Sunday with lengthy talks with top Chinese officials that both countries described as “candid” and “constructive” and called for more stable ties after years of rising tensions. Blinken is the first secretary of state to visit China in five years, amid China’s strict coronavirus pandemic lockdowns and strains over the self-governing island of Taiwan, Russia’s war in Ukraine, Beijing’s human rights record, assertive Chinese military moves in the South China Sea and technology trade. The top U.S. diplomat began two days of meetings with extended talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang and other officials and a working dinner at Diaoyutai State Guesthouse. Neither Blinken nor Qin made any substantive public comments during their meetings. Blinken’s talks with Qin were “candid, substantive, and constructive,” said State department spokesperson Matthew Miller. “The Secretary emphasized the importance of diplomacy and maintaining open channels of communication across the full range of issues to reduce the risk of misperception and miscalculation,” Miller said in written statement late Sunday. Blinken, the spokesperson added “raised a number of issues of concern, as well as opportunities to explore cooperation on shared transnational issues with the PRC where our interests align.” Chinese state media described the talks as “candid, in-depth and constructive communication on the overall relationship between China and the United States and related important issues.” The report quoted Qin as saying that “Sino-US relations are at the lowest point since the establishment of diplomatic relations. This does not conform to the fundamental interests of the two peoples, nor does it meet the common expectations of the international community.” “China is committed to building a stable, predictable and constructive Sino-US relationship,” the Chinese-language report quoted Qin as saying. “It is hoped that the U.S. side will uphold an objective and rational understanding of China, meet China halfway, maintain the political foundation of Sino-U.S. relations, and handle unexpected incidents calmly, professionally and rationally,” the Chinese foreign minister added. As he had in a blunt pre-meeting phone call with Blinken on Wednesday, however, Qin said China would not budge on its “core interests,” including that the self-governing island of Taiwan will be reunited with the mainland. Qin called Taiwan “the core of China’s core interests, the most important issue in Sino-US relations, and the most prominent risk,” Sunday’s readout said. Blinken is slated to have further talks with Qin, as well as China’s top diplomat Wang Yi, director of the Central Foreign Affairs Office, on Monday. Observers see a possible meeting with President Xi Jinping as a barometer of Beijing’s willingness to re-engage with Washington after years of frosty ties. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, center, left, walks with Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang, center right, at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing, China, Sunday, June 18, 2023. (Leah Millis/Pool Photo via AP) The visit comes after almost a year of strained relations between the Biden administration and Beijing, which began with then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan in August. Other irritants include China’s diplomatic and propaganda support for Russia for its war against Ukraine, and U.S. allegations that Beijing is attempting to boost its worldwide surveillance capabilities. Blinken postponed a planned February trip to China after a suspected Chinese spy balloon flew over U.S. airspace and was shot down. This visit went ahead despite the revelations early this month of a multibillion-dollar Chinese spy base in Cuba. He told reporters before leaving Friday that Washington wants to improve communications “precisely so that we can make sure we are communicating as clearly as possible to avoid possible misunderstandings and miscommunications.” ‘Legitimate differences’ President Joe Biden told White House reporters Saturday he was “hoping that over the next several months, I’ll be meeting with Xi again and talking about legitimate differences we have, but also how … to get along.” U.S. defense officials say Chinese officials have refused phone calls since Blinken canceled a planned trip to Beijing in February due to the Chinese spy balloon. Beijing asserts it was a weather balloon. Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu also declined to meet with U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore earlier at the start of the month, with Li instead using the forum to accuse the United States of “double standards.” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken (2nd R) and China’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang (2nd L) meet at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing on June 18, 2023. Credit: Leah Millis / POOL / AFP There have been recent high-level contacts, including a trip to China by CIA chief William Burns in May, a visit to the U.S. by China’s commerce minister, and a meeting in Vienna Austria between Wang and Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan. Reuters news agency quoted a senior State Department official as telling reporters during a refueling stop in Tokyo that Washington and Beijing understand they need to communicate more. “There’s a recognition on both sides that we do need to have senior-level channels of communication,” the official said. “That we are at an important point in the relationship where I think reducing the risk of miscalculation, or as our Chinese friends often say, stopping the downward spiral in the relationship, is something that’s important,” the official said. “Hope this meeting can help steer China-U.S. relations back to what the two Presidents agreed upon in Bali,” tweeted Chinese assistant foreign minister Hua Chunying. Biden and Xi met face-to-face on the sidelines of a summit of the Group of 20 big economies in November and agreed to try to restore dialogue despite sharp differences. The two leaders have opportunities to meet later this year, including at the Group of 20 leaders’ gathering in September in New Delhi and at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in November in San Francisco. Updated with statements from the U.S. and China after Sunday’s meetings.
Junta pilot and trainee killed in Myanmar military helicopter crash
A junta helicopter crashed near an air force base in Myanmar’s capital Naypyidaw, killing the pilot and a trainee, local media reported Friday. The military confirmed Thursday’s crash, thought to have been caused by sudden engine failure, but did not give the names and ranks of the dead. Local news reports, quoting anonymous military sources, named the pilot/instructor as Maj. Min Thu Aung but only said the trainee was a woman without naming her. One local told RFA the army sent an investigation team to the site of the helicopter crash on the Bago mountain range. “It crashed on the Bago Plateau on the edge of Lewe township [in Naypyidaw] and bordering Taungdwingyi township [in Magway region],” said the resident who didn’t want to be named for security reasons. “Military vehicles came to the area but could not reach the crash site. We saw a lot of helicopter traffic.” The junta said in a statement that they were working to transport the bodies to the nearest military hospital. In March last year, a military helicopter crashed during bad weather in a forest in Chin state’s Hakha township, injuring some military council air force officers and some education workers. That helicopter was Russian-made and Thein Tun Oo, the executive director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategic Studies, a think tank group made up of former military officers, said at the time it was a durable design but probably crashed due to bad weather. The make of the helicopter that crashed this week is not yet known. Russia is the biggest arms supplier to Myanmar, selling U.S.$406 million worth of military equipment to the junta since the Feb. 1, 2021 coup, according to a report last month by Tom Andrews, the United Nations Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Myanmar on May 17. China, Singapore and India sold at least a combined $600 million-worth of weapons to Myanmar over the same period, he said. Translated by RFA Burmese. Edited by Mike Firn.
North Korean diplomat’s wife and son go missing in Russian far east
Russian authorities have issued a missing persons alert for the family of a North Korean diplomat, in what local and international media reports said could be an attempted defection. According to a public notice issued Tuesday, Kim Kum Sun, 43, and her son Park Kwon Ju, 15, were last seen on Sunday leaving the North Korean consulate in Vladivostok, in Russia’s far east, and their whereabouts are unknown. They are the wife and son of a North Korean trade representative in his 60s surnamed Park, sources in Vladivostok told RFA’s Korean Service. Park, considered a diplomat, had returned to North Korea in 2019, they said. Park and his family were dispatched to Russia prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, where they were assigned to earn foreign currency for the North Korean regime by running the Koryo and Tumen River restaurants in Vladivostok, a source in Vladivostok who declined to be named told Radio Free Asia. The missing woman was identified as Kim Kum Sun, who was the acting manager of both restaurants on behalf of her husband, according to a Russian citizen of Korean descent familiar with confidential news involving North Korean state-run companies in Vladivostok. He spoke to Radio Free Asia on condition of anonymity for security reasons. Rode off in taxi On the day they disappeared, the mother and son rode a taxi and got off on Nevskaya Street, which is not far from the consulate, Russian Media reported. The consulate reported to authorities that they had lost touch with the pair after they were not able to contact them. “[The mother and son] had been detained in the North Korean consulate in Vladivostok for several months and then disappeared during the time they had once per week to go out,” the Russian citizen of Korean descent said. “Park said he would return after the restaurant’s business performance review, but he was not able to return because the border has been closed since COVID hit,” he said, adding that the pandemic was rough on business at the Koryo restaurant, that Kim Kum Sun was running in her husband’s stead. “In October of last year, the assistant manager, who oversaw personnel escaped,” the Korean Russian said. The assistant manager of the Koryo restaurant, Kim Pyong Chol, 51 attempted to claim asylum but was arrested. Shortly afterward, the consulate closed the restaurant fearing that others would also attempt to escape, he said. “The acting manager and her son were then placed under confinement inside the consulate in Vladivostok,” said the Korean Russian. “They were allowed to go out only one day a week since they did not commit any specific crime, they just did chores inside the consulate and were monitored.” Fear of returning Rumors about a possible reopening of the North Korea-Russia border have made North Koreans stranded in Russia by the pandemic anxious that they might have to return to their homeland soon, another North Korea-related source in Vladivostok told RFA on condition of anonymity to speak freely. “They fear that when they return to North Korea, they will return to a lifestyle where they are cut off from the outside world,” the North Korea-related source said. The fear of returning to one of the world’s most isolated countries is palpable among the fledgling community of North Korean dispatched workers and officials in Vladivostok, said Kang Dongwan, a professor at Busan’s Dong-A University, who recently visited the far eastern Russian city. “The North Korean workers I met in Vladivostok were in a harsh situation and were quite agitated,” he said. “If [a border reopening] happens, there is a high possibility that North Korean workers and diplomats’ families will return to North Korea. So they may have judged that the only chance to escape North Korea is now.” According to South Korea’s Dong-A Ilbo newspaper, the presidential office in Seoul has confirmed that the mother and son have gone missing, and the related South Korean agencies are actively searching for their whereabouts. They have not made contact with South Korean authorities. An official from the office told Dong-A that the case is “not yet at the stage where they are trying to seek asylum in South Korea, as far as I know.” Translated by Claire Shinyoung Oh Lee. Edited by Eugene Whong and Malcolm Foster.
China to account for more than half renewable capacity rise, report says
The speedy deployment of renewable power worldwide is set to lead the largest annual increase in new renewable capacity ever, a report released on Thursday said. Renewable power capacity is expected to increase by a third this year and will continue to rise next year, primarily due to a stronger push by governments amid higher fossil fuel prices and energy security concerns, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its latest Renewable Energy Market update. The Paris-based group said there would be a significant surge in the global addition of renewable capacity, with a record-breaking increase of 107 gigawatts (GW) expected in 2023, resulting in total renewable capacity of over 440 GW worldwide. That is 24% more than projected six months earlier and double what the world added in 2019. Furthermore, projections indicate that total global renewable electricity capacity will reach 4,500 GW, equivalent to the combined power output of China and the United States, by the following year. China is expected to account for nearly 55% of global additions of renewable power capacity in both 2023 and 2024, consolidating “its position as the undisputed leader in global deployment,” the IEA said. In 2022, China accounted for less than half of all new renewable power capacity worldwide. By 2024, the report projected that China will deliver almost 70% of all new offshore wind projects globally, as well as over 60% of onshore wind and 50% of solar photovoltaic (PV) projects. An infographic showing China’s renewable capacity increase between 2017 and 2024. Credit: IEA. According to the IEA, the “dynamic expansion” is also occurring elsewhere in the world’s major markets. In Europe, many countries boosted their renewables to reduce their reliance on Russian natural gas after the invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing energy crisis. In the United States, the wind and solar PV markets experienced a decline last year due to trade restrictions and limitations in the supply chain. However, these markets are anticipated to rebound significantly, with an estimated growth of approximately 40% expected in 2023. In India, renewable capacity expansion in both 2023 and 2024 is attributed to the accelerated deployment of onshore wind, hydropower, and distributed solar PV systems. “Solar and wind are leading the rapid expansion of the new global energy economy,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said. “This year, the world is set to add a record-breaking amount of renewables to electricity systems … The global energy crisis has shown renewables are critical for making energy supplies cleaner, more secure, and affordable – and governments are responding with efforts to deploy them faster.” Birol said more robust growth faces challenges, including the “need to upgrade and expand power grids to ensure we can take full advantage of solar and wind’s huge potential.” According to the report, solar PV additions will account for two-thirds of this year’s increase in renewable power capacity and are expected to keep growing in 2024, with high electricity prices driving faster growth of rooftop panels. Meanwhile, wind power additions are forecast to grow by almost 70% year-on-year in 2023 after a slow couple of years. The faster growth is mainly due to the end of COVID-19 restrictions in China and recovering supply chain issues worldwide. The IEA said that compared to solar PV, wind turbine supply chains are still not growing fast enough to match increasing demand over the medium term due to rising commodity prices and continued supply chain challenges, resulting in some reduction in profit for manufacturers. Edited by Mike Firn.
Malaysia’s Mahathir says Russia may take nuclear option
The world is facing the grim prospect of a nuclear war as the Ukrainian conflict drags on, a former Asian leader has warned. “I don’t think you can make Russia surrender,” said former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad about the ongoing Ukraine war on Friday – the second day of the Future of Asia conference hosted by the Nikkei news group in Tokyo. “They will fight to the end, and in desperation they may resort to the use of nuclear weapons,” said the former statesman who will be 98 in July, adding that not only Ukraine and Russia, but “the whole world will suffer.” Mahathir served as Malaysia’s prime minister from 1981 to 2003 and again from 2018 to 2020. “Nuclear war is the worst kind of war because of the extent of destruction it causes,” he said, reflecting on the end of World War II when two atomic bombs were dropped on Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. A summit of Group of Seven (G7) of the world’s most developed nations was held in Hiroshima last week. “It seems that G7 countries went to Hiroshima trying to persuade the Global South that they should support the West’s efforts in the Ukraine war,” Mahathir said. The Global South is a term generally used for less developed countries in Latin America, Africa, Asia and Oceania, as opposed to more prosperous nations in the Global North including North America, Europe, and Australia, as well as several rich Asian countries like Japan, South Korea and Singapore. “We should not get involved in wars,” the former leader said before criticizing what he called “the mindset of some countries.” “Global North thinks that war is a solution to conflicts between nations,” Mahathir said. “Russia and the West were partners in the war against Germany,” he said, “but immediately after the war the West decided that their new enemy is Russia so they set up NATO.” ‘World government’ The rivalry between the world’s two superpowers China and the U.S. once again was highlighted at the Future of Asia event, in its 28th year this year. Sri Lanka’s President Ranil Wickremesinghe said on Thursday that his country “welcomes the G7’s announcement that they are prepared to build a stable and constructive relationship with China.” Singapore Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong went further adding: “Any attempt either to contain China’s rise or to limit America’s presence in the region will have few takers. Nobody wants to see a new cold war.” Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad (right) at a Q&A session at the Future of Asia conference, May 26, 2023. Credit: RFA/Screenshot from livestream For his part, Mahathir Mohamad urged Asian countries that they “should not take sides to support either the U.S. or China.” “We should support the world that includes the U.S., China and the rest.” “We should free ourselves from the influences by the West both in the economic and political fields,” said the former leader, known for his anti-Western rhetoric. In his opinion, the United Nations as an organization needs to be restructured in order to lead global efforts in dealing with common world problems such as climate change, pandemics and consequences of wars. “We should think of a common approach to deal with world problems, through a kind of world government,” he said. Future of Asia, held by Japan’s Nikkei annually since 1995, is “an international gathering where political, economic, and academic leaders from the Asia-Pacific region offer their opinions frankly and freely on regional issues and the role of Asia in the world.” This year’s theme is ‘Leveraging Asia’s power to confront global challenges.’ Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida delivered a speech Thursday saying Tokyo is “focused on co-creating the future” with its Asian partners. Edited by Mike Firn.
A new big brother for Laos?
The Friendship Shield 2023 war games brought 200 Chinese troops and 700 Lao soldiers together for three weeks near the Lao capital Vientiane for joint military exercises. The drills between the two Communist states gave troops from impoverished, land-locked Laos firsthand experience using modern Chinese weapons, opening the way for the Southeast Asian country to replace its Soviet-era and Russian military supplies. Neighboring Vietnam, Laos’ biggest traditional ally, is believed to be watching the Sino-Lao relationship warily, while the U.S. is also concerned about China’s expanding military influence.
Myanmar’s junta increasingly relying on airstrikes, research group says
Myanmar’s junta is increasingly relying on airstrikes in its war against groups opposed to its rule, according to tallies compiled by Nyan Lynn Thit Analytica, an independent local research group, because its troops have faced fierce resistance on the ground. The military carried out 1,427 airstrikes across Myanmar since taking power by force in a coup d’etat on Feb. 1, 2021, the group said in a report released Monday. During the first four months of 2023, the junta launched 454 airstrikes – a rate that puts it on track for double the 2022’s total of 820, the group said. Most of the attacks have taken place in Kayin state and the Sagaing region – areas where junta forces have struggled to maintain control. Even former military officers have criticized the army’s reliance on airplanes. “The military uses its air power depending on the need for ground operations,” said Thien Tun Oo, executive director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategic Studies, which is made up of former military officers. “It’s funny to say that the military has to use its air power, as its ground troops cannot handle the battles,” he said. “That’s our opinion.” The number of people killed by junta airstrikes is also increasing every year, said Moe Htet Nay, a research and political adviser for Nyan Lynn Thit Analytica. In 2021, 74 civilians were killed; in 2022, 168 civilians were killed; and during the first three months of 2023, 192 have been killed, he said. Civilians hide in a cave after airstrikes and mortar attacks on their village in Doo Tha Htoo district in Myanmar’s eastern Kayin state, May 3, 2022. Credit: Free Burma Rangers/AFP Civilians targeted ‘indiscriminately’ The airstrikes are intended to bring chaos to anti-junta forces and to separate them from villages and civilian populations, Moe Htet Nay said. The most deadly airstrike came last month when 188 people were killed in Kanbalu township of Sagaing region on April 11. Political analyst Than Soe Naing believes the junta will continue to target airstrikes at civilian populations, in addition to the People’s Defense Forces, made up of ordinary citizens who have taken up arms against the military. “The military first used the air forces to relocate its ground troops,” he said. “But later, the air forces started attacking every possible target of the PDFs. Now, the junta launches airstrikes at any populated place indiscriminately.” Radio Free Asia reached out to a junta spokesman to ask about the airstrikes, but there was no response. Nyan Lynn Thit Analytica collected data on the airstrikes from reports in more than 40 news outlets, including RFA, Voice of America and Myanmar Now, and through the social media sites of more than 1300 PDFs. Burned remains of buildings cover the ground in a village in Doo Tha Htoo district in Myanmar’s eastern Kayin state, May 3, 2022. Credit: Free Burma Rangers/AFP Some villagers afraid to dig bomb shelters Kyaw Zaw, spokesman for the president’s office of the shadow National Unity Government, told RFA in early May that they are constructing a system that can notify the public in advance of incoming junta air strikes. The project also includes a proposal to build bomb shelter bunkers. But many villagers wouldn’t dare dig bomb shelter trenches because junta forces believe that families with bomb shelters are aligned with PDFs, according to a resident of Kanbalu township who refused to be named for security reasons. “How can we protect ourselves against the danger of their airstrikes during the battles? Their ground troops destroy our bomb shelters as they raid our places,” the resident said. Debris and soot cover the floor of a middle school in Let Yet Kone village in Tabayin township in the Sagaing region of Myanmar the day after an airstrike hit the school, Sept. 17, 2022. Credit: Associated Press Chinese and Russian entities have sent more than US$660 million in weaponry and other arms-related equipment to the junta since the coup, according to the United Nations’ special rapporteur for Myanmar, Tom Andrews. That includes Russian-made Mi-35 military helicopters, MiG-29 and Yak-130 planes and Chinese-made K-8 jet fighters that have been used by the military to target and destroy civilian homes and buildings, Andrews said in a report last week. Pro-democracy activists, including NUG acting President Duwa Lashi La, have called on the international community to stop the junta from purchasing military equipment and technology, and to cut off its sources of jet fuel. Translated by Myo Min Aung. Edited by Matt Reed and Malcolm Foster.
G7 talks tough on Ukraine, Taiwan and Korea during Blinken’s Asia trip
UPDATED AT 07:34 a.m. ET on 2023-04-17. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Japan where he, together with other foreign ministers from the Group of Seven (G7) nations, discussed a common approach to the war in Ukraine Monday, confirming “that they remain committed to intensifying, fully coordinating and enforcing sanctions against Russia, as well as to continuing strong support for Ukraine,” according to a Japanese Foreign Affairs Ministry statement. The statement was in line with the goals of the Biden administration, which are to shore up support for Ukraine and to ensure the continued provision of military assistance to Kyiv, as well as to ramp up punishment against Russia through economic and financial sanctions, a senior official from Blinken’s delegation told the Associated Press ahead of the meeting. Earlier G7 ministers vowed to take a tougher stance on China’s threats to Taiwan, and North Korea’s missile tests. Meanwhile, Britain’s Financial Times reported that China was refusing to let Blinken visit Beijing over concerns that the FBI will release the results of an investigation into the suspected Chinese spy balloon downed in February. The FT quoted four people familiar with the matter as saying that “China had told the U.S. it was not prepared to reschedule a trip that Blinken cancelled in February while it remains unclear what the administration of President Joe Biden will do with the report.” It is unclear when the trip would be rescheduled. The U.S. military shot the Chinese balloon down over concerns that it was spying on U.S. military installations but China insisted that it was a weather balloon blown off course due to “force majeure.” The incident led to Blinken abruptly canceling his ties-mending trip to Beijing, during which he was expected to call on Chinese leader Xi Jinping. The relationship between Washington and Beijing has been strained in the last few years over issues such as China’s threats to Taiwan and security concerns in the Indo-Pacific. Upgrading U.S.-Vietnam partnership Antony Blinken arrived at Karuizawa in Nagano prefecture in central Japan on Sunday after a visit to Vietnam to promote strategic ties with the communist country. This was Blinken’s first visit to Hanoi as U.S. Secretary of State. The U.S. is building a U.S.$1.2 billion compound in Hanoi, one of its largest and most expensive embassies in the world. During his visit, Blinken met with Vietnam’s most senior officials, including the General Secretary of the Communist Party, Nguyen Phu Trong, to discuss “the great possibilities that lie ahead in the U.S.-Vietnam partnership,” the secretary of state wrote on Twitter. Secretary of State Antony Blinken (L) meets with Vietnam’s Communist Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong at the Communist Party of Vietnam Headquarters in Hanoi, Vietnam, April 15, 2023. Credit: Andrew Harnik/Pool via Reuters Two weeks before Blinken’s visit, Trong and his U.S. counterpart Joe Biden had a phone conversation during which the two leaders agreed to “promote and deepen bilateral ties,” according to Vietnamese media. Former enemies Hanoi and Washington normalized their diplomatic relationship in 1995 and in 2013 established a so-called Comprehensive Partnership to promote cooperation in all sectors including the economy, culture exchange and security. Vietnam’s foreign relations are benchmarked by three levels of partnerships: Comprehensive, Strategic and Comprehensive Strategic. Only four countries in the world belong to the top tier of Comprehensive Strategic Partners: China, Russia, India and South Korea. Vietnam has Strategic Partnerships with 16 nations including some U.S. allies such as Japan, Singapore and Australia. U.S. officials have been hinting at upgrading the ties to the next level Strategic Partnership which offers deeper cooperation, especially in security and defense, amid new geopolitical challenges posed by an increasingly assertive China. Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh told the U.S. Secretary of State on Saturday in Hanoi that the consensus reached amongst the Vietnamese leadership is to “further elevate the bilateral partnership to a new height” adding that “relevant government agencies have been tasked with looking into the process.” Vietnam analysts such as Carl Thayer from the University of New South Wales in Australia said that an upgrade of Vietnam-U.S. relationship to Strategic Partnership within this year is possible, despite concerns that it would antagonize Beijing. The U.S. is currently the largest export market and the second-largest commercial partner for Vietnam. Hanoi aims to benefit across the board from U.S. assistance, especially in trade, science and technology, Thayer told Radio Free Asia. Vietnam as one of the South China Sea claimants has been embroiled in territorial disputes with China and could benefit from greater cooperation in maritime security. In exchange, “the U.S. would benefit indirectly by assisting Vietnam in capacity-building to address maritime security issues in the South China Sea to strengthen a free and open Indo-Pacific,” said Thayer. “The U.S. is trying to mobilize and sustain an international coalition to oppose Russia’s war in Ukraine and to deter China from using force against Taiwan and intimidation of South China Sea littoral states,” the Canberra-based political analyst said. Hanoi’s priority Some other analysts, such as Bill Hayton from the British think tank Chatham House, said that there might have been a miscalculation on the U.S.’s part. “Washington is now taking itself for a massive ride in its misunderstanding of what Vietnam wants from the bilateral relationship,” Hayton said. “All the Communist Party of Vietnam wants is regime security. It has no interest in confronting China,” the author of “A brief history of Vietnam” said. Blogger Nguyen Lan Thang was sentenced to six years in prison for ‘spreading anti-state propaganda’ on April 12, 2023. Credit: Facebook: Nguyen Lan Thang Just before Blinken landed in Hanoi, a dissident blogger was sentenced to six years in prison for “spreading anti-state propaganda.” Nguyen Lan Thang was also a contributor to Radio Free Asia. The U.S. State Department condemned the sentence and urged the Vietnamese government to “immediately release and drop all charges against Nguyen Lan Thang and other individuals who remain in detention for peacefully exercising and promoting human rights.” “Vietnam is an…
Southeast Asia’s water festivals: Hopes and scenes
As Cambodia, Myanmar and Laos celebrate their annual New Year’s water festivals, RFA asked readers what they hoped for in the year ahead. For many, the wishes are simple – peace and freedom. Cambodia “As a Cambodian, I wish the country and its people would get a leader who pays attention to people’s living standards so they can live in harmony, democracy (and) the rich and poor have equal rights, the same as those who live in the free world. I also wish people would have mutual unity and would restore Cambodia to the prosperity that our ancestors left us.” Sophie Lok “I want RFA to resume its office in this peaceful country. Losing RFA is losing breaking news!” Mala San “I wish Hun Sen would lose the upcoming election.” Boozz Boy “I wish this current regime wouldn’t wage war against its own people.” Rachana Konpa “Hun Sen’s regime changes to a democratic country.” Phairy Kim Myanmar “We miss the past. We hope for peace.” Yangon youth “We would like to get back the stability and development in Myanmar like under Mother Suu’s administration. We would like to see the immediate release of all those arbitrarily detained including Mother Suu and President U Win Myint, and to regain the power by the NLD government, which was elected by the people. I do not want to see people being killed unjustly.” “I wish for the emergence of a federal state which has been desired by all ethnic minorities. I do not want to see the country’s future leaders sacrifice their lives. May the Spring Revolution be successful as soon as possible!” Mandalay woman “As we mark Myanmar’s New Year, may Myanmar be liberated from military dictatorship and end the wars.” Aung Naingtun “I have a sole New Year wish. It is nothing, but down with the military council! I do not want to wish for other things. I know prayer alone is not enough, so I am doing it pragmatically. If I could travel with ‘Time travel,’ I would like to go back to January 31, 2021 and its previous days. I miss those days ruled by Mother (Suu)… I miss my home. I was forced to leave my motherland but I am eager to return to my family.” Salmon “My hope is that people should be involved [in the movement] and they should provide more assistance to the success of the uprising. May Myanmar people possess better lives in the New Year! May the uprising be successful as soon as possible!” Win Ko Ko Oo “I am from Taze township, Sagaing region. In previous years, I used to return to my village during Thingyan holidays. I am so sad that I cannot return to my home this year because I have no home there. Although festivals are held in cities, I cannot enjoy them. I am so sad because I cannot return to my native village and my parents.” Maung Aye Min Htet from a village in Taze township, Sagaing region Laos “I wish I had better health, better living conditions and a higher salary. We can’t go on like this in the current condition in which the cost of living is rising, while the income is staying low.” Grade school teacher in Pakkading district, Borikhamxay province “Yesterday, I went grocery shopping and I bought three cat fish for which I paid 90,000 kip ($5.29), up more than 7% a month ago.” A businesswoman in Vientiane wishes that Laos could get out of the economic and financial troubles sooner than later An owner of a small factory in capital Vientiane wants the war between Ukraine and Russia to be over as soon as possible because the war is the main cause of all the economic and financial woes in the world, including Laos.
Blinken’s trip to Vietnam may result in possible upgrade for US-Vietnam ties
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is hoping to upgrade relations with Vietnam to a strategic partnership from the current comprehensive one during meetings with officials in Hanoi on Friday and Saturday, amid China’s rising regional power and aggression in the South China Sea. Blinken is scheduled to meet with senior Vietnamese officials to discuss “our shared vision of a connected, prosperous, peaceful, and resilient Indo-Pacific region,” the State Department said in an April 10 statement. Blinken also will break ground on a new U.S. embassy compound in Hanoi. Blinken’s trip comes about two weeks after a phone call between U.S. President Joe Biden and Nguyen Phu Trong, general secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam. July will mark the 10th anniversary of the 2013 U.S.-Vietnam Comprehensive Partnership. Vietnam already has “strategic” partnerships with many U.S. allies, but the U.S. itself has remained at the lower “comprehensive” partnership level despite improvements in the bilateral relationship because disaccord over human rights hindered talks. But political analysts believe Vietnam may agree to boost the relationship this time around. Ha Hoang Hop, an associate senior fellow specializing in regional strategic studies at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, a research center in Singapore, said he was certain that Vietnam would upgrade its partnership with the U.S. during Blinken’s visit. “A good and better relationship between Vietnam and the U.S. will certainly contribute to maintaining the stability and security of Southeast Asia, as well as of a broader region,” he told RFA. “It will also significantly make Vietnam more proactive, confident, and stronger in ensuring its stability and security given many complexities in the world and in the region.” Vietnam has comprehensive partnerships with a dozen other countries, strategic partnerships with another 13, and comprehensive strategic partnerships with China, Russia, India and South Korea. A boost in relations between the U.S. and Vietnam would prompt China to react across the board in terms of security, economic development, trade and cultural exchange, Hop said. “Even now, we all see that China does not want Vietnam to have good relations with other countries,” he said because Beijing believes it would not bode well for its claims in the South China Sea over which it has sparred with Hanoi for decades. “We all know they have used so-called ‘gray zone tactics’ to disturb, annoy and cause instability,” Hop said. “Then, they gradually encroach and at some point when other countries, including Vietnam, let it go, they will achieve their sovereignty goals.” Making Hanoi happy Prominent human rights lawyer Le Cong Dinh also waxed positive on the possible upgrading of bilateral ties between the U.S. and Vietnam. “This relationship is considered in the context of the U.S.’s strategy in the Indo-Pacific region,” he said. The strategy, issued by the Biden administration in early 2022, outlines the president’s vision for the U.S. to more firmly anchor itself in the Indo-Pacific region in coordination with allies and partners to ensure the region is free and open, connected, prosperous, secure and resilient. “Vietnam’s position and role is quite important to the U.S.’s regional strategy, especially in terms of containing China in the South China Sea,” said Dinh, a former vice-president of the Ho Chi Minh Bar Association. “Therefore, the U.S. always tries to find ways to make Hanoi happy and deepen the bilateral relationship.” He went on to suggest that for the U.S. regional security issues have taken precedence over human rights in Vietnam. But Dinh cautioned that to avoid upsetting China, the Vietnamese government must take a tactful and smart approach to upgrade bilateral ties with the U.S. and not hastily use the term ‘strategic partnership.’” “Doing so, in reality, the two sides can work on the issues that a strategic partnership allows us to do, which a comprehensive partnership does not. China’s state-run Global Times newspaper on April 9 cited Chinese experts who said Blinken’s visit may yield results in maritime security or improvement in economic cooperation, but it would not affect Vietnam’s overall strategy because there are still inherent and structural contradictions – ideological and historical issues – between Vietnam and the U.S. Translated by Anna Vu for RFA Vietnamese. Edited by Roseanne Gerin and Matt Reed.
