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Ongoing conflict in northern Myanmar kills 2, including child

Editor1 year ago05 mins

Residents in northeastern Myanmar are facing both a humanitarian crisis and intense conflict, people living in the area told Radio Free Asia. On Sunday night, airstrikes by junta forces killed two people, including a child, in Shan state. Locals were caught off guard when a junta plane began an aerial attack on Myo Thit village in Namhsan township around 10 pm. It was unexpected because there had not been any fighting beforehand, said one local, asking to remain anonymous for fear of reprisals. “There is no fighting in Namhsan, but the aerial bombardment was carried out while people were sleeping,” he told RFA, adding that six women and two men were injured in addition to the two killed. “People died and houses were also burned.” The explosions damaged 23 houses in total. The bomb weighed roughly 500 pounds and killed Tar San Naw, as well as a child, when it landed on a house, according to a statement released by the Ta’ang National Liberation Army on Monday. The junta has not released any information about this attack and calls by RFA to Shan state’s junta spokesperson Khun Thein Maung went unanswered. Conflict in northeastern Shan state has intensified in the last two months, as an allied group of resistance armies took three major cities in Operation 1027 in late October. Earlier that month, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army attacked several junta convoys, causing their troops to retaliate. Since Oct. 10, nearly 30,000 internally displaced people have been sheltering in makeshift tents near the China-Myanmar border in Laukkaing township. A camp for internally displaced people in Laukkaing township on November 18, 2023. Credit: The Kokang Since Thursday, heavy rain has made life more difficult for those forced from their homes. After several days of rain, resources are becoming harder to find and people’s health is deteriorating, said a Laukkaing resident, who did not want to be named for security reasons. “They have been living in tents since before [the rain]. It is raining and they are not comfortable anymore. Most are workers from other areas, not residents,” he told RFA. “There are many people who came to work in Laukkaing from other areas. Water also became scarce in that camp.” Elderly people and children are also more prone to illness in the colder weather without blankets, he added. On Saturday, the camp’s water and electricity were cut off. The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army warned Chinese citizens in Laukkaing to return to China to avoid conflict in the region. They also told civilians to stay away from military camps and not to move around the area. All of Laukkaing’s roads and gates out of the city are blocked and locals are facing food shortages, residents also reported. Junta troops are not letting food or supplies into the city. After Operation 1027, battles between the military junta and the three northern allies have been continuing in eight townships, including Namhkan, Chinshwehaw, Nawnghkio, Lashio and Manton. Translated by RFA Burmese. Edited by Mike Firn.

Brotherhood Alliance campaign in Shan State spawns contagion effect in Myanmar

Editor1 year ago013 mins

The Three Brotherhood Alliance’s Operation 1027 in northern Shan State has caused a contagion effect, with its sweeping victories since late October followed by major gains by ethnic resistance organizations across Myanmar. Since the country’s founding in 1948, the military has never suffered such significant and widespread battlefield setbacks. Despite having seized power in a coup d’état in February 2021, Myanmar’s military has never been able to consolidate power. But now, it looks like the beginning stages of their total defeat, with plummeting morale amongst the rank and file. Operation 1027 continues across Shan State with the Three Brotherhood Alliance — , which includes the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, (TNLA) the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and the Arakan Army — and some people’s defense forces under the National Unity Government (NUG) having taken nine towns, over 160 military camps, and now controlling key roads. Opposition forces have seized abandoned armor, artillery, and a large cache of small arms and ammunition. And army attempts to supply their isolated forces by air have had little success with opposition forces often recovering the supplies. Members of the Karenni Nationalities Defense Force, KNDF pose in front of Loikaw University in Kayah State following their attack on junta forces on Nov. 15, 2023. Credit: KNDF The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) is currently pushing towards their former headquarters in Laukkaing, which they lost in 2009. Ironically, the commander of Myanmar’s military forces in that 2009 battle was none other than junta leader Min Aung Hlaing. Radio Free Asia has reported that a second battalion of some 120 men has laid down their arms in Shan State. The first light infantry battalion to do so, which included 41 men, took place on October 30, 2023. Authorities in Naypyitaw are so concerned about the total loss of Kokang Special Autonomous Zone, that they replaced the head of the local allied Border Guards Force that was established in 2009, Myint Swe, with Brigadier-General Tun Tun Myint of the northeastern command. But beyond that the military is unable to do little other than barrage the region with long-range artillery and aerial bombardments. Despite Min Aung Hlaing’s vow to mount a counter offensive, the military is short on manpower, helicopter lift capability and is facing crumbling morale. Contagion Effect The Kachin Independence Army has joined the fray, capturing a military base in Kutkai, in northern Shan state, where they claim 30 soldiers were killed. There are ongoing encounters between them and military regime forces in Kachin. With the roads contested, the military is now dependent on ferrying in men and supplies. The fighting has significantly expanded in the past week. Karenni forces launched a parallel offensive, Operation 1111, in Kayah state. They have seized 20 military outposts in 6 days of fighting. But most significantly, they are in the middle of an assault on Loikaw. The city of 50,000, is the first provincial capital that is at risk of falling to opposition forces. Karenni Nation Defense Forces (KNDF) have claimed to have killed 110 soldiers and taken 38 prisoners of war. Footage spread across social media shows KNDF personnel taking the surrender and providing medical care for soldiers at the University in Loikaw. Members of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, MNDAA Pose with ammunition seized from Hkoke Htan military outpost in Kokang region on Nov. 16, 2023. Operation 1027 continues across Shan State with the Three Brotherhood Alliance and some people’s defense forces Under the National Unity Government, NUG having taken nine towns, over 160 military camps, and now controlling key roads. Credit: The Kokang The situation in Chin state has been more fluid. Military forces drove some Chin fighters into India’s Mizoram state, but some dozen were returned to military custody by the Assam Rifles. Days later, military personnel found themselves in Mizoram where they had fled. In this case, the Assam Rifles helicoptered them back to safety in Myanmar. The military has responded with airstrikes; one of which killed eight children when a bomb fell on the house being used as a makeshift school. The situation in Rakhine has the potential to be the most costly to the SAC. The Arakan Army (AA) and the military broke their 2020 ceasefire following the coup, but both sides quickly concluded that an escalation of violence was not in their best interest. A second ceasefire was reached in November 2022. This was an enormous disappointment for the National Unity Government, which sought a new front against the junta. Breakdown in Rakhine Yet the involvement of the Arakan Army in northern Shan state, where they are a member of the Three Brotherhood Alliance, has led to a breakdown in the peace in Rakhine state. The military has deployed several navy ships to the region along with additional personnel, but both failed to serve as a deterrent. The AA broke the ceasefire on November 13. In the first 24 hours of commencing offensive operations, the AA seized over 40 military and police outposts. Some 26 police surrendered. In many cases police have abandoned remote posts to consolidate in the larger towns. A man stands amongst debris in the aftermath of a military strike on a camp for displaced people near northern Laiza area on Oct. 11, 2023. Credit: AFP The AA took the town of Pauktaw, their first. The military has responded as they can, with aerial bombardment and indiscriminate fire from their naval vessels that has led to the death of innocent civilians and over 20,000 displaced people. There are reports that several ministers from the Rakhine State Military Council have already fled the capital Sittwe, for fear of being arrested by the AA. The AA can be expected to quickly fill the political vacuum. In Sagaing — where a joint operation between the KIA, the AA, the All Burma Students’ Defense Force, and other PDFs led to the capture of Kawlin — the first of 330 nationwide township capitals to fall, has now spread to Tigyaing township. The…

Russian soldier in Ukraine discusses North Korean weapons in video

Editor1 year ago06 mins

Video of a Russian soldier in Ukraine talking about ammunition supplied by North Korea surfaced on social media this week, apparently debunking denials by Pyongyang and Moscow that the isolated East Asian country is supplying weapons for the war there. A video titled “Multiple rocket launcher (MRL) extended-range shells kindly provided by North Korean comrades have arrived in the NVO zone,” was shared on Nov. 12 on a Telegram channel called Paratrooper’s Diary, which contains frequent posts from Russian troops fighting in the northern front in Ukraine. The video shows a Russian soldier standing in front of a pile of rockets. “Our friends gave us a new type of ammunition similar to the twenty-second,” the soldier said in a possible reference to the rocket’s designation of R-122. “They travel farther distances and hit the target with higher accuracy. The victory will be ours.” If the weapons are indeed North Korean, it would be proof that Russia is in violation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1874, which prohibits arms trade with North Korea. The prospect that the rockets were provided by North Korea is very likely, David Maxwell, vice president of the Center for Asia Pacific Strategy, told RFA Korean. “These MRLs are ubiquitous,” Maxwell said. “Since the weapons are so common and so heavily used for indirect fire against tactical Ukrainian targets, the Russians are likely going through their ammunition stocks rapidly and thus need resupply from North Korea.” The rockets in the video were also identified as North Korean by military blogger War Noir on X. “The rockets appear to be rare R-122 HE-FRAG rockets with F-122 fuzes. These are produced and supplied #NorthKorea/#DPRK,” a Nov. 8 tweet by War Noir, which contained the same video, said. RFA previously reported that the same blogger had identified North Korean weaponry used by Hamas fighters in attacks on Israel last month. Russian denials Though both Pyongyang and Moscow have denied that North Korea is supplying Russia with weapons for use in Ukraine, this is not the first time that evidence to the contrary has surfaced. In October, the Ukrainian weapons analysis group ‘Ukraine Weapons Tracker’ released photos showing the Russian military using North Korean-made artillery shells in a tweet on X. But on Tuesday, a spokesman for the Kremlin, Dmitry Peskov, said at a press conference that allegations that Russia was using North Korean weapons were “completely groundless.” “[The allegations] have not been confirmed by anything,” he said. North Korea has also dismissed the idea, calling it an “absurd manipulation of public opinion.” The United States is deeply concerned about “the expansion of military cooperation between North Korea and Russia,” U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said on Tuesday. “North Korea is providing lethal weapons to Russia.” Meanwhile, South Korea’s Ministry of Unification was also critical of the apparent uptick in military cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow at a press briefing last month. “North Korea has repeatedly denied arms trade with Russia, but related circumstances are coming to light one after another,” the ministry’s spokesperson Koo Byoung Sam said. “The true nature of North Korea, which has deceived the entire world, is being revealed to the world.” RFA sent a message to the administrator of the Telegram channel to confirm the veracity of the video which is saying that the Russian military received North Korean weapons but did not receive a response. Translated by Claire Shinyoung Oh Lee. Edited by Eugene Whong and Malcolm Foster.

Former lawmaker dies in police custody after arrest for Myanmar scams

Editor1 year ago011 mins

A former member of parliament for Myanmar’s pro-military Union Solidarity and Development Party wanted by Chinese authorities has died in police custody after being arrested for masterminding an online scam ring, according to junta-controlled media. Police in the Kokang Self-Administered Zone in northern Shan state, along Myanmar’s border with China, arrested ethnic Chinese businessman Ming Xuechang in Laukking township on Thursday in addition to his son Ming Guoping and grandson Ming Zhenzhen, MRTV said in a report. Beijing issued arrest warrants for the three late last week for allegedly helping to orchestrate telecom scam rings in Myanmar staffed by human trafficking victims. During the arrest, Ming Xuechang was injured by what MRTV described as a “self-inflicted gunshot wound from his own pistol.” He later died in hospital while undergoing treatment, the report said. Myanmar authorities handed Ming Guoping and Ming Zhenzhen over to police from China’s Yunnan province via the border gate at Yanglongkeng, according to MRTV. In addition to the three, Chinese authorities had also issued an arrest warrant for Ming Xuechang’s daughter, Ming Julan, who remains at large. Myanmar’s junta said the four family members committed online fraud, abduction, illegal detention, and extortion in the Kokang Self-Administered Zone. Experts say that many powerful officials in Kokang hold Chinese national ID cards and passports, giving Chinese police the jurisdictional authority to issue warrants for their arrest. Arrests in Yunnan Prior to issuing warrants for the members of the Ming family, authorities in China arrested 11 businesspeople at a trade fair in Yunnan’s Lincang township on Oct. 1, according to Chinese state media. Among them was Liu Zhangqi – a hotelier and former lawmaker for the Union Solidarity and Development Party in Kone Kyan township who is another of Ming Xuechang’s grandsons. Phoe Wa, a native of Hopan township in northern Shan’s Wa state self-administered zone with knowledge of the online scam industry, told RFA Burmese that he believes the arrests are related. “Some of the 11 are friends or relatives of the four who were the focus of the recent arrest warrants,” he said. “While there are [gambling] coin games on the first floor of hotels in Laukkaing, Muse and Chinshwehaw townships, there are typically restricted upper floors which house online fraud businesses. I assume that these cases are related to these online scams.” A source who is close to Liu Zhangqi, also known as “Maung Maung,” told RFA on condition of anonymity that attempts by family members to meet with the 11 arrested businesspeople in Yunnan have been rebuffed by Chinese authorities. Residents of Kokang who speak Chinese said that on Nov. 12, Liu published a statement in the Chinese media calling on the public to “help the Chinese government control online fraud” in the region. In the statement, Liu said Chinese authorities would “raid homes, hotels and casinos to find suspects,” and warned that anyone who resists arrest “bears responsibility for their own actions.” While reports by local media suggest that Chinese special forces have entered Kokang to conduct arrests of online fraud suspects, RFA has been unable to independently verify the claims. Kokang chief removed The arrest of the Mings comes a day after the junta removed Myint Swe as chief administrator for Kokang and replaced him with Brig. Gen. Tun Tun Myint on a temporary basis. Myint Swe was last seen in public on Nov. 8 at an emergency meeting of the National Defense and Security Council in Naypyidaw, which he had been invited to as a special participant. The junta’s announcement of his replacement made no mention of whether it was related to Thursday’s arrests. RFA made several attempts to contact the Chinese Embassy in Yangon by email for comment on the warrants, arrests, and alleged operations by Chinese special forces in Kokang, but received no response by the time of publishing. Myint Swe, seen at a meeting Nov. 8, was removed on Wednesday as the chief administrator for Kokang Self-Autonomous Special Region. Credit: Myanmar military Chinese Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong led a delegation of officials to meet with junta chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing in Naypyidaw on Oct. 31. During the meeting, the two agreed to form a joint Myanmar-China task force to eradicate online scam rings in the Laukkaing area, according to pro-junta media reports. Days earlier, the “Three Brotherhood” Alliance of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Arakan Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army launched an offensive on Oct. 27 dubbed “Operation 1027” and have since made notable gains against the military in several key cities in Shan state. On Day One of the campaign, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, or MNDAA, occupied Chinshwehaw township and arrested several people for alleged roles in online scams. Crackdown only ‘tip of iceberg’ According to pro-junta media, authorities in Kokang have arrested a total of 7,789 foreign nationals – including 7,395 Chinese, 189 Vietnamese, 162 Thais, 32 Malaysians and two Laotians – in connection with online scams in the region. Authorities have deported 6,892 of them to China, reports said. Junta authorities in Myanmar’s Shan state have arrested and deported hundreds of Chinese nationals linked to telecom scams in the region in recent stings, but residents say the rings continue to flourish there, attracting workers with the promise of good-paying jobs. Scamming gangs have proliferated in Shan state, along eastern Myanmar’s borders with China and Thailand, amid the political chaos of the Feb. 1, 2021, coup d’etat, benefitting from widespread unemployment, poor oversight, and growing investment from across the border. Residents told RFA Burmese that scamming operations continue to thrive despite the crackdown, offering high-paying jobs to candidates with computer and language skills who are then held against their will and forced to earn money for their captors by working as telecom scammers. The gangs are known to brutally punish trafficking victims who refuse to work for them or fail to meet earning quotas, sometimes with deadly consequences. MNDAA spokesman Li Kyarwen told RFA that local military…

US Congress pushes sanctions on HK pension, judicial issues

Editor1 year ago08 mins

In a harsh rebuke to China’s tightening authoritarian grip, a new U.S. congressional report has called for sanctions against Hong Kong judges and expanded efforts to protect emigrants’ pension funds. The annual report from the Congressional-Executive Commission on China (CECC) on Tuesday recommends Congress-authorized sanctions on members of Hong Kong’s judiciary, including foreign nationals serving on the city’s Court of Final Appeal. It also urges action to prevent U.S. financial institutions from cooperating with Hong Kong authorities seeking to deny departing Hong Kongers access to their retirement savings. Restrictions on MPF withdrawal Commenting on the situation of Hong Kong immigrants being denied access to their MPF (Mandatory Provident Fund) deposits, the CECC says it believes the practice is the Hong Kong government’s way of punishing Hong Kong people who have emigrated overseas by using BNO, or British National (Overseas), status after the National Security Act came into effect. This has resulted in some 90,000 BNO holders being denied access to their MPF deposits, according to the report. The CECC cited the U.S.-based Prudential Group and the U.K.-based Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC) for refusing to allow Hong Kong residents to withdraw their MPF deposits after emigrating overseas. Under the Hong Kong Autonomy Act passed in 2020, the U.S. Department of State is required to submit an annual report to Congress on the status of Hong Kong. As such, the CECC has recommended that Congress should direct the Department of State to include in the annual report information on the Hong Kong government’s restriction on the withdrawal of MPF by Hong Kong residents abroad. The CECC believes that the authorities may consider imposing sanctions on those involved in restricting the freedom of immigration. It also recommended that Congress take further steps to prevent U.S. financial institutions involved in the management of Hong Kong people’s funds from complying with the Hong Kong government’s requests to assist in the infringement of immigration freedoms and to withhold lawfully earned pensions from those involved. Simon Lee, senior lecturer at the School of Accountancy of the Chinese University of Hong Kong, said the Hong Kong government not only lacks political advisers, but also a grasp of the global diplomatic struggle. “Now the MPF issue has escalated to the U.S. Congress, complicating the situation. It not only embarrasses the central government, but also affects the free flow of funds in Hong Kong and reduces investor confidence,” Lee told Radio Free Asia Cantonese on Nov. 15. “I think it’s silly to use all sorts of back doors to restrict MPF withdrawals. If unsure, it’s better not to do anything,” he said. Instead, Lee suggested that the local authorities should relax the restrictions to avert any potential sanctions, and send out positive signals that will help maintain Hong Kong’s status as an international financial center. Judicial independence The CECC also recommends that Congress amend the Hong Kong Autonomy Act to include in its annual report an assessment of Hong Kong’s judicial independence, reflecting faithfully whether the city’s chief executive, or any other body acting on behalf of the Chinese government, has exerted undue influence on its judicial system in a way that infringes on the right to a fair and independent trial guaranteed by the Basic Law. Based on the assessment results, Congress may impose sanctions on individuals serving in the Hong Kong judiciary, including foreign judges serving in the Hong Kong Court of Final Appeal, the report noted. Samuel Bickett, an American lawyer who used to work in Hong Kong, told RFA Cantonese that Hong Kong no longer had judicial independence and the rule of law to speak of, and that every judge and prosecutor involved in trials under the National Security Act had a role to play in undermining the city’s autonomy. “I think it’s a sign that different parts of the U.S. government, from Congress to the executive branch, have taken note of the need for further sanctions [against Hong Kong] and the failure of the U.S. government to implement them over the last few years,” Bickett said. “It’s a good sign that the Hong Kong 47 case, the Stand News case, the Jimmy Lai trial, all of these cases are going to get the attention of the United States and add momentum to the actions of the U.S. Congress and the president.” The CECC was established by the U.S. Congress in 2000 to study, report and make recommendations on how the U.S.-China trade and economic relationship affects U.S. national security. In the past, Congress introduced bills to sanction Hong Kong judges. Early this month, a bipartisan group of Congress members co-sponsored a bill on sanctions against Hong Kong officials – The Hong Kong Sanctions Act – which involves a list of 49 people and is the first time that a number of Hong Kong National Security Act judges and prosecutors are named in the bill. Translated by RFA Staff. Edited by Mike Firn and Elaine Chan.

Thailand backs away from Chinese police patrol plan amid furor

Editor1 year ago05 mins

The Thai government has ruled out a proposal for Chinese police to be stationed at tourist hotspots around the kingdom amid a public backlash. The Tourism Authority of Thailand, TAT, on Sunday said the country was in talks with China about introducing joint police patrols as a way to appease Chinese visitors’ fears about safety. But the announcement sparked an outcry and earned pushback from the national police chief, Gen. Torsak Sukvimol, who said having Chinese officers on Thai soil was “a breach of sovereignty,” according to a report from BenarNews, an affiliate of Radio Free Asia. Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, who is in San Francisco for the APEC summit, said Monday there was no plan to station Chinese police in the country for joint patrols. Thailand only wanted to exchange information with China on criminal gangs operating in the Southeast Asian nation, Srettha said, according to a report from Bloomberg News. In Bangkok, Tourism Minister Sudawan Wangsuphakijkosol echoed the prime minister’s comments, saying there was “no policy to bring Chinese police” to Thailand. “The Thai police are already adequate … and are working hard to ensure tourist confidence,” he told reporters on Tuesday. TAT Gov. Thapanee Kiatphaibool apologized the same day for the “misunderstanding” and any “negative sentiment” stirred up by her comments. Chinese tourists accounted for a quarter of nearly 40 million tourist arrivals in Thailand in 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic hit. But visitor numbers from the world’s No 2 economy have been slower to bounce back than anticipated after Beijing lifted its hardline pandemic rules in January. Thailand expects between 4 million and 4.4 million Chinese visitors this year, the TAT said. On Wednesday, Chinese Ambassador to Thailand Han Zhiqiang paid a courtesy visit to Sudawan to stress the importance of the bilateral relationship. “China’s government supports Chinese tourists visiting Thailand,” he said in a video posted by the tourism ministry. “This helps stimulate the economy, the tourism industry and, moreover, brings the two countries closer together.” The country’s image as a safe tourist destination for Chinese has been knocked by a spate of recent kidnap-for-ransom cases and reports of people being tricked into being trafficked as workers at scam call centers in nearby Myanmar. A shooting spree that left three people dead, including one Chinese national, at a popular Bangkok shopping mall last month has also raised safety concerns. The presence of Chinese police on foreign soil has become a sensitive issue worldwide after it was revealed by Spain-based Safeguard Defenders group in a September 2022 report that China was carrying out transnational policing operations across five continents, without the approval of the jurisdictions they were operating in. The report said the operations “eschew official bilateral police and judicial cooperation and violate the international rule of law, and may violate the territorial integrity of third countries involved in setting up a parallel policing mechanism using illegal methods.” BenarNews is an online news outlet affiliated with Radio Free Asia.

Another junta battalion surrenders to rebels in Myanmar’s Shan state

Editor1 year ago06 mins

A light infantry battalion with more than 120 troops surrendered to ethnic rebels – the second time in two weeks that a battalion belonging to Myanmar’s military junta has laid down arms to rebel forces in northern Shan state. The entire Light Infantry Battalion 129, including its commander and 134 family members, surrendered on Sunday to the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance, a spokesman for the rebel group told Radio Free Asia. “We welcome the soldiers who have surrendered to us,” MNDAA spokesman Li Kyarwen said. “We are also safeguarding them. The injured persons are getting medical treatment. We have safely transported them to their expected destination.” Each of the junta soldiers was awarded 1 million kyat (US$476) while one family member was given an additional 100,000 kyat (US$47), Li Kyarwen said. The junta battalion was based near the border with China in Laukkaing, one of about a half dozen areas in Shan state targeted during a coordinated military offensive launched last month by an alliance of three ethnic armies. Reports show that the Three Brotherhood Alliance – made up of the MNDAA and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army in Shan state and the Arakan Army in Rakhine state – has taken some 150 military camps in battles throughout Shan state, causing alarm among top military brass. On Oct. 30, all 41 members of Light Infantry Battalion 143, including a deputy commander and two company commanders, surrendered to the MNDAA in Shan’s Kunlong township. A total of 127 Myanmar army soldiers and 134 of their family members – 261 people – surrendered to the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance on Nov. 12, 2023 in northern Shan state. Credit: Three Brotherhood Alliance Junta chief Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing said last week that the alliance’s Operation 1027 – named for the date that the offensive began – could “break the country into pieces” if left unchecked. RFA attempted to contact a spokesman for the military junta for comment on the latest battalion surrender, but phone calls went unanswered on Tuesday. No reinforcements On Sunday, the junta declared martial law in eight townships in Shan state, including Laukkaing. But troops in the region haven’t received military reinforcements recently, which must have been a contributing factor in the battalion’s choice to give up, said Than Soe Naing, a military and political observer. “They didn’t think that it was worthy for them to sacrifice the lives of more than 200 people, including soldiers and their families,” he said. “In this helpless situation, they made the decision to surrender.” That was the right decision for commanders to make, said Captain Lin Htet Aung, a former military officer who joined the non-violent Civil Disobedience Movement, or CDM, in opposition to the junta. “We have seen considerable losses to the military in recent battles, and we haven’t heard the military express condolences or offer encouragement,” he said. “So, junta soldiers should think about whether they should sacrifice their lives to protect these leaders.” Junta forces also suffered a loss during fighting on Monday near the Indian border in western Myanmar’s Chin state. More than 40 junta soldiers fled across the border and were later handed back to Myanmar authorities by Indian forces. Additionally, fighting between the Arakan Army and junta troops in Rakhine state has intensified in recent days. And in northeastern Myanmar, Karenni Nationalities Defense Force targeted junta bases in Loikaw University and a prison in the capital of Kayah state on Saturday. Translated by Aung Naing. Edited by Matt Reed and Malcolm Foster.

APEC 2023: Xi heads for US in closely-watched summit with Biden

Editor1 year ago010 mins

Even as the world watches keenly as China’s President Xi Jinping meets his American counterpart Joe Biden on Wednesday, expectations of what could transpire in a climate of fraught bilateral relations marred by a tech war and regional tensions are modest. Xi is heading to San Francisco where he is due to meet Biden on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, the first time in a year since the two met in Bali, Indonesia. Some experts, while not anticipating a change in the trajectory of the U.S.-China relationship, are hopeful that the talks will deliver some results such as the formal resumption of military-to-military relations. Diplomatic and commercial dialogues between the two have resumed after the downing of the Chinese balloon earlier this year, pointed out Zhang Baohui, director of the Centre for Asian Pacific Studies at Lingnan University. “The two sides have even begun strategic dialogues on nuclear and maritime issues. However, the U.S. wants to reopen military to military dialogues to prevent inadvertent incidents. This meeting between the top leaders should remove the hurdle for military-to-military exchanges. “If so, this should be a significant development as the world is very concerned by the prospect of military conflicts between the two countries in sensitive areas like the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea,” Zhang said. To be sure, the White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters on Monday that both sides will discuss strengthening communications and managing competition responsibly so that the U.S.-China relationship “does not veer into conflict” during the summit. “The way we achieve that is through intense diplomacy,” said Sullivan. He added that there are areas where “interests overlap,” such as efforts to effectively manage competition that could be done by reestablishing military-to-military communications. Incremental outcomes If there were any outcomes to come from the Xi-Biden summit, Ian Chong, a political scientist from the National University of Singapore believes they would be “incremental, but nonetheless important” to maintain the momentum of expanding dialogue. “Such effects will not be seen immediately after the meeting. Rather, they may unfold as more areas come under discussion in the following months to inject more predictability into the U.S.-PRC relationship to avoid unintended escalation, even as competition continues,” Chong said, referring to China’s formal name, the People’s Republic of China. “Xi probably seeks to press the PRC’s case on Taiwan and the South China Sea, while probing the U.S. on trade and technology and seeking more predictably in the bilateral relationship,” he noted. “Biden will likely reiterate U.S. positions on Taiwan and the South China Sea, while seeking more stability in the bilateral relationship. They may try to gauge each other’s positions on the Israel-Hamas conflict, Russian aggression in Ukraine, climate, and AI.” U.S. President Joe Biden meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 leaders’ summit in Bali, Indonesia, November 14, 2022. (Source: Reuters) Another area of contention that is expected to be discussed is semiconductors in light of the recent chip export ban by Biden, alongside the push for generative AI in both the U.S. and China, observed James Downes, head of the Politics and Public Administration Programme at Hong Kong Metropolitan University. “The key achievable issues or goals will likely relate to the ongoing tech war between both countries,” said Downes. “The Biden-Xi Summit will be much more successful if both sides focus on economic issues, as opposed to long-term and divisive geopolitical issues.” According to Lingnan University’s Zhang, Xi will no doubt pressure the U.S. to relax technology denial measures against China, but he believes the U.S. is unlikely to yield on this issue. “Technological competition constitutes a central place in the overall U.S. competition strategy,” he explained. Zhang believes that Xi will try to persuade Biden to return the relationship to cooperation, away from strategic competition, seeking a U.S. commitment that it does not support Taiwan’s quest for independence. Biden, in contrast, will seek to stabilize the competition to prevent “conflict” by pursuing more measures to build “guardrails” for its competition with China, like the resumption of military-to-military dialogues. “The US will assure Beijing that it will follow the One China principle. Nonetheless, deepening security cooperation between Washington and Taipei will continue to bother Beijing and lead to contentious relations with the US.” Seeking specific outcomes Meanwhile, Sullivan said the U.S. is looking for specific outcomes in the overlapped areas of interests from the summit, which include efforts to combat the illicit fentanyl trade and discussion between the two leaders on critical global issues such as Russia’s war against Ukraine, and the evolving crisis in the Middle East. Given China’s stance on the Middle East conflict, there may be a potential that the leaders may agree-at-large, in expressing the importance of peace in the region. China’s deputy permanent representative to the United Nations, Geng Shuang, said in New York on Monday that establishing peace in the region was an important task for Beijing. However, it could be challenging for Biden and Xi to release a joint agreement on criticizing Hamas as Beijing has traditionally shown a less sympathetic stance on Israel, when compared to that of the U.S. This difference in diplomatic approaches may complicate the leaders in reaching a more detailed consensus on the Israel-Hamas war. In fact, according to Xinhua News Agency, Geng expressed “shock and concern” over statements made by Israeli officials regarding nuclear weapons usage in Gaza Strip, labeling the Israeli remarks as “irresponsible and troubling.” While Geng condemned the idea of using nuclear weapons, largely aligning with the international community and the Non Proliferation Treaty principles, the senior diplomat did not specifically address or criticize the actions of Hamas, which have led to civilian casualties. Edited by Mike Firn and Taejun Kang.

Cambodia’s Hun Manet goes up against the private sector

Editor1 year ago014 mins

On November 13, Cambodia’s princeling prime minister, Hun Manet, will meet with Cambodia’s aggravated private sector for his administration’s first Government-Private Sector Forum which his nascent government has been preparing for months. There has already been a public furore over the likely rise in taxation, which Hun Manet has denied will happen, but anyone with sense knows it must happen. The property sector is in a very bad way. Worse is the banking sector, where high private debt has everyone on alter and is leading to sleepless nights amongst the middle classes—domestic credit to the private sector stands at 182 percent of GDP as of last year, according to a World Bank report from last month (p. 46). By comparison, in China, it was 220 percent. Hun Manet greets supporters during a campaign rally in Phnom Penh in July 2023. Prime Minister, Hun Manet, will meet with Cambodia’s aggravated private sector for his administration’s first Government-Private Sector Forum in November which his nascent government has been preparing for months. Credit: Tang Chhin Sothy/AFP Wetting our appetites, Hun Manet has suggested that he will announce new policies, including for the property sector, later this month. One could be to allow foreigners to buy villas in gated communities (boreys), where most of the toxic credit in the property sector seems to be. At the same time, however, Hun Manet will be being told by his elders—including his father, Hun Sen, Cambodia’s ruler for almost four decades—that he cannot give away too much to the private sector. Hun Manet is an inexperienced, slightly hollow leader whose legitimacy is tied to being his father’s chosen successor, not any of his own achievements (yet). No ‘social bargain’ The upcoming forum will be a moment when some people in the private sector—those expected to fund the lavish lifestyles of the political nobility and the increasing tax burdens of the state, but without getting an actual seat at the political table—think they can gain an advantage. There is no “social bargain” in Cambodia between the political nobility and commoners. If the economy goes pear-shaped, the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) won’t voluntarily resign from power, nor would it allow the masses to openly protest on the streets. However, there is a delicate bargain between the political nobility and the private sector. The task for all authoritarian regimes is this: how do you ensure that the private sector pays the piper but doesn’t call the tune? After all, why maintain the political nobility (which is rentier in nature) when the private sector isn’t getting something in return? Why not go over the heads of the political rent-seekers? A man rides a cart in Phnom Penh, Sept. 2023. Credit: Tang Chhin Sothy/AFP This dynamic isn’t specific to Cambodia. In China and Vietnam, the defining policies of Xi Jinping and Nguyen Phu Trong, the two communist parties’ general secretaries, have been a mammoth crackdown on the private sector that reasserts the communists’ monopoly on power as part of vast anti-corruption campaigns. Why? Because authoritarian governments only have to be good at one thing: denying space for any alternative to their authority. But private sectors would be an alternative if they weren’t constrained, as seemed to be the case in both communist states before 2012, the year Xi and Trong came to power. Indeed, businesses and tycoons might start demanding the predictability of the rule of law and private property rights; they might want a direct say in politics; they might start to publicly criticize their political masters (think Jack Ma of Alibaba!); and they might protest by denying the state the taxation it needs to survive. Splurging on titles How do you rectify this? You co-opt the private sector; you turn a blind eye to its dodgy actions; you create policies favorable to its advancement; you intermarry your political nobility with the economic elites; you arrest outspoken individuals for corruption to set an example of what happens if someone steps out of line. During its succession process this year, the CPP in Cambodia has tried to appease the private sector. It has splurged on the number of oknha titles it awarded; as of June 2023, there were 1,299 people with the honorific, although the number grew after the July general elections The number of land concessions and other corrupt practices also boomed. The Cambodia Oknha Association was launched in June by Cambodia’s most prominent tycoons, with Hun Sen as honorary president. Ostensibly a way for the ruling party to collect “charitable” donations, it is actually a way for the most powerful oknha to constrain their lessors and do Hun Sen’s bidding. Hun Manet’s government now has 1,422 secretaries or undersecretaries of state, more than double the number his father’s government had. Many of these positions are bought and allow the occupiers to extract patronage payments. Moreover, the new administration has vowed to run the country in a more technocratic and economic-minded manner. A woman on a motorcycle laden with goods rides past a Rolls-Royce at a car dealership in Phnom Penh in 2014. Credit: Samrang Pring/Reuters The apparent insinuation is that it will focus on finances, not playing at geopolitics. It has maintained or appointed ministers whom the private sector trusts. Aun Pornmoniroth, the powerful finance minister, kept his job and is now the real architect of government policy. Sok Chenda Sophea, formerly the head of the Council for the Development of Cambodia, the government body tasked with attracting and managing foreign investment, is now foreign minister. Keo Rottanak, the new Minister of Mines and Energy, was managing director of the state-owned electricity provider Electricite du Cambodge. Chheang Ra, the new health minister, was director of the state-run Calmette Hospital. However, constraining the private sector and economic barons will become a lot more difficult. Things were easier in the past when the lifestyles of the political nobility were relatively cheap (a few billion dollars) and when the Cambodian state had a small budget that was primarily funded by foreign…

Interview: Opposition’s Operation 1027 in Shan State indicates ‘low point’ in Myanmar-China ties

Editor1 year ago017 mins

On Oct. 27, the Northern or “Three Brotherhood” Alliance of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Arakan Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army launched “Operation 1027” – named for the date of the offensive. The groups simultaneously struck junta positions in the strategic Shan cities of Kunlong, Hseni, Chin Shwe Haw, Laukkaing, Namhkan, Kutkai, and Lashio, the state’s largest municipality. Since then, reports indicate that the alliance has taken some 150 military camps in battles throughout Shan state and caused alarm in the top military brass. The campaign will “break the country into pieces” if left unchecked, said junta chief Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing on Nov. 8. To understand the significance of Operation 1027, Radio Free Asia Burmese reporter Ye Kaung Myint Maung interviewed Jason Tower, the country director for the Burma program at United Stated Institute of Peace in Washington. Tower has decades of experience researching cross-border conflicts in Southeast Asia. Radio Free Asia: The Northern Alliance groups have advanced their campaign 1027, a military operation. And it was reported that they have captured more than 100 military outposts and even some important towns in northern Shan State, and some fighting has reached an area not far from where the military academy is located. What’s your overall take on Operation 1027? Tower: In my view, this operation potentially could really be a game changer in terms of the broader revolution and conflict in Myanmar. I think a lot of this in terms of the timing has to do with China’s growing dissatisfaction with the junta regime, because over the past five months you’ve seen where the junta not only has proven incapable of working with the Chinese to advance any of China’s economic interests. You’ve also seen it fail miserably in terms of providing support to China around security interests and cracking down on increasingly malign criminal actors who are harming a global population through scams and human trafficking – a lot of which are targeting Chinese nationals. And so you’ve seen … out of frustration, the Chinese side has cracked down in a pretty strong way on the United Wa State Army and on the National Democratic Alliance Army, even detaining high-level Wa leaders like Bao Jin Fang, the number two in the army, and issuing arrest warrants for two other leaders, really showing, I think, very clearly how serious the Chinese side is in terms of wanting the military to try to crack down on this activity. And despite all of that pressure, the military still failed to act. So I think very clearly you saw they’re going to launch this operation. What’s very significant about it is just how quickly the Brotherhood has been able to take major cities within 24 hours of the announcement of the operation. In my view, this was not something that was done quickly. This was a plan that was coordinated over probably a month or more. This operation is a very serious operation. And in order for the Brotherhood Alliance to do this, it would need to have at least tacit support from the Chinese side. And I believe it did have this in this case. Now, what’s really interesting about it is the way the Brotherhood Alliances framed this around cracking down on the transnational criminal activity and liberating people from these scam centers. And that does seem to be what a lot of the initial targets are that you are seeing, now the Brotherhood Alliance groups and PDFs go in, identify some of these centers and liberate the scam centers. So you are seeing some of that happening. But of course, I think the bigger issue here is that in Koh Kong, all eyes of the Myanmar army, the four eco Kong clan families that represent the COCOM border guard force have refused to do anything to crack down on this because this is the main source of revenue and a major source of revenue also for the military. And so now you’re seeing the Brotherhood really take this into their own hands. I think the other major factor here is that on one hand, you know, the entire country is watching this operation and they’re seeing how weak the Myanmar army is. You know, Myanmar army troops are going in and they’re defecting immediately, giving all of their arms over to the Brotherhood alliance. … And I think this is emboldening everyone. It’s letting everyone sort of see just how weak the military has become and how illegitimate it has become. Because the ultimate reason why the Chinese greenlighted this operation is because the junta has failed to take any steps to crack down on this awful transnational criminal activity, which is harming the interests of Thailand, harming the interests of China, harming the interests of really every country around the world. So in that respect, I think this really a game changer, because we’re at a point right now where the Chinese side has really reached a kind of a low point in terms of its relationship with the military junta. Radio Free Asia: We know that China has played a very important role in the armed conflict in northern Myanmar. And also China has strong ties with members of Northern Alliance groups. So in this case in particular, what led you to the conclusion that China has given the green light to start this military operation? Tower: I think that the reason why China is comfortable with this operation is because the operation is framed around doing exactly what the Chinese side has been telling the Myanmar army to do for the past four months. But what the Myanmar army has refused to do, which is to crack down on the criminal activity, take down these scam syndicates, free the victims of human trafficking and so on. And so that’s, you know, the justification that the Brotherhood is giving for launching this operation. And you do see where it has yielded…

Category: Europe