About 30 Rohingya killed in clashes between Myanmar junta, insurgents

About 30 members of Myanmar’s Rohingya minority have been killed in clashes between junta forces and ethnic minority Buddhist insurgents, residents of Rakhine State said on Saturday, raising new fears that the persecuted Muslim community is being caught in the middle of increasingly bitter fighting. Twelve Rohingya civilians were killed in junta airstrikes targeting fighters from the Arakan Army, or AA, in Buthidaung township on Friday.  Later in the day, the Arakan Army bombed  a school where Rohingyas were sheltering with drones, killing 18 of them, residents said. About 200 people were wounded, a Buthidaung Rohingya resident who identified himself as Khin Zaw Moe told RFA. “People are scared. The casualties may be even higher,” he said. “The exact number is not known due to the difficulty in communicating.” Rohingyas from about 20 villages were sheltering in the high school when it was attacked, he said. It was not clear why the Arakan Army bombed the school. RFA tried to telephone the AA spokesman, Khaing Thukha, and the junta’s Rakhine State spokesperson, Hla Thein, but could not get through to either of them.  The AA, who are battling the junta for self-determination of the Buddhist ethnic Arakan community in the state, said in a statement on Saturday its forces had captured all junta bases in Buthidaung. It did not mention Rohingya civilians. Rohingya, who have been persecuted for decades in Buddhist-majority Myanmar, are getting caught up in the war between the AA and junta forces, human rights workers  say. Both sides have pressed Rohingya into their ranks and at the same time have accused Rohingya of helping their rivals. Both the AA and junta forces subjected members of the Muslim minority to violence, residents and rights workers say. Another Rohingya resident of Buthidaung said the AA burned down homes in eight neighborhoods of the town although he didn’t know how many of the homes had been destroyed. Rohingya activist Nay San Lwin told RFA that tens of thousands of Rohingyas had fled from their homes after the AA ordered them to leave the town by 10 a.m. on Saturday. Another township resident told RFA on Saturday that AA fighters had rounded up thousands of Rohingya near Buthidaung prison.  RFA was unable to confirm any of the accounts because telephone lines and internet links were down. More than 700,000 Rohingya fled from a Myanmar military crackdown in 2017, in response to a series of attacks on the security forces by Rohingya insurgents. Most of those refugees are sheltering in camps in southeast Bangladesh, where they joined hundreds of thousands who fled earlier abuses. More than half a million Rohingya remain in Rakhine State, many of them in camps for the internally displaced. Rohingya activists estimate the Rohingya population of Buthidaung to be around 200,000.  Edited by Mike Firn and Taejun Kang.

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Australia sanctions entities linked to North Korea-Russia arms deal

Updated May 17, 2024, 04:47 a.m. ET. Australia has imposed targeted sanctions against entities linked to the unlawful weapons trade between North Korea and Russia. “Australia is imposing targeted financial sanctions, in coordination with international partners, on a further six entities associated with North Korea’s supply of arms and related materiel to Russia,” said Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong in a statement on Friday. “Australia condemns, in the strongest possible terms, North Korea’s illegal export and Russia’s procurement and use of North Korean ballistic missiles, in support of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine.” Noting the continued transfer of weapons from North Korea to Russia is a flagrant violation of multiple United Nations Security Council resolutions, Wong said Australia would work with Western allies to hold Russia and North Korea to account and address the security threat posed by the North.  Wong’s statement came a day after the United States announced sanctions on two Russian individuals and three Russian companies for facilitating arms transfers with Pyongyang. U.S. Treasury officials said in a statement that the two countries had strengthened their military cooperation over the past year, with the North providing ballistic missiles and munitions to Russia in return for weapons and economic aid. The U.S., South Korea and others have accused Pyongyang of supplying Moscow with weapons to use in its war in Ukraine – an accusation that both countries have denied. A now-defunct U.N. panel of experts tasked with investigating violations of sanctions related to North Korea’s prohibited nuclear and ballistic missile programs, released a report in March, detailing with photographs Russia’s arms dealings with North Korea. A few hours after Australia’s announcement, North Korea fired several short-range ballistic missiles off its east coast, the South Korean military said.  “We identified several projectiles believed to be short-range ballistic missiles fired into the East Sea [Sea of Japan] from the Wonsan area of North Korea,” the Joint Chiefs of Staff said. The North Korean missile flew about 300 km (186 miles) before falling into the Sea of Japan, the JCS added. This is North Korea’s fifth ballistic missile test launch this year. The JCS said it was analyzing details of the missiles and shared relevant information with the U.S. and Japan. “We strongly condemn North Korea’s missile launch as a clear act of provocation that seriously threatens the peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula,” the JCS said, adding that South Korea will closely monitor the North’s activities. Edited by Mike Firn. This story was updated to include information about North Korea’s missile launch.

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Uyghur activist moved to safe location after perceived threat in Paris

A Uyghur activist living in Paris has been moved to a secure location after a group of unidentified men appeared on her doorstep last week and called for her to let them in, according to the president of the European Uyghur Institute. On the morning of May 8, eight unidentified people emerged from a black van with tinted windows outside the Paris home of Gulbahar Jelilova, a Uyghur businesswoman from Kazakhstan who spent 18 months in a Xinjiang internment camp, said Dilnur Reyhan, president of the institute. At the time of the incident, Jelilova was away from her apartment, but neighbors told her the unidentified people repeatedly buzzed her unit — though the bell does not list her name, Reyhan said. They also called her cell phone several times. As the group gathered in front of the building, Reyhan posted a photo on X, saying Jelilova was “terrified” by their presence.  “Gulbahar herself saw the Chinese men when she reached the turn leading to her house and took a photo of them. She was scared and called me,” Reyhan told Radio Free Asia.  “Their decision to ring the doorbell may have been intended to intimidate her, to send a message, or perhaps they had a specific purpose,” she said, adding that the car resembled “vehicle used for kidnappings.” A May 8, 2024 post on X by Dilnur Reyhan, president of the European Uyghur Institute, shows men and women dressed in black standing near a van outside the residence of Gulbahar Jelilova. (@DilnurReyhan via X) Reyhan said she called the police, who arrived and were told by the group they had come to see a Japanese rock garden they heard was in the building.  She said “trusted sources” later reported all eight were Chinese nationals and that her group was helping prepare a court complaint against the group. RFA could not confirm their identity or nationality.  Reyhan said such acts of intimidation had grown more common, and that she herself had been regularly followed by a car in recent months.  Jelilova could not be reached, and the French police did not respond to requests for comment from Radio Free Asia.  ‘Tomorrow this could be me’ Gulbahar Haitiwaji, a Uyghur detained in China’s “re-education” camps for two years but who now lives in France said the incident at Jelilova’s apartment had unnerved many.  “Because China is so ruthless, in the back of my mind I always think that one day they’ll bring about harm towards me,” she said. “For example, yesterday it was Gulbahar, tomorrow it could be me.” Related Stories Former Xinjiang Internment Camp Detainee Honored With ‘Hero of the Year’ Award Tibetan, Uyghur protesters greet Xi Jinping in Paris Pro-Beijing ‘thugs’ tormented Xi protesters, activists say The incident took place one day after Chinese President Xi Jinping wrapped up his two-day state visit to France, his first stop on a three-country European visit. His arrival was greeted by several protests from Tibetan, Uyghur and Chinese activists – including Jelilova. While such demonstrations have in the past been met, sometimes violently, with pro-Beijing counter-protests, there was little sign of that in Paris.  But at a May 5 protest at Madeleine Square, which is located close to the French president’s residence, Uyghur activists were met by a small group of French-speaking counter-protesters.  A video posted to Facebook shows about eight young men, all wearing masks and none of whom appear to be of Chinese descent, holding up letter-sized photos of World Uyghur Congress President Dolkun Isa with a mark across his face.  As the crowd of protesters approach them, they shout “liar” and “they are bulls–ing us” in French, before running away as police pursue them for unknown reasons.   Isa told RFA that he suspected the protests were the “result of the Chinese government’s arrangements, funding, or organization.” The Chinese Embassy in Paris did not respond to requests for comment by the time of publication.  Translated by RFA Uyghur. Edited by Abby Seiff and Malcolm Foster.

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Episode 6: Songs, (alleged) spies, and the curious case of Wang Shujun

“It’s go time!” says Amy as she tries her best impression of Eugene to start off the show. Podcast Free Asia We answered our first listener comment from a youtube user who took issue with our account of an Asia Fact Check Lab story about U.S. President Jimmy Carter discussing the One China policy, which recognizes China but only acknowledges China’s stance on Taiwan. This was way back in episode 1! We welcome all feedback, even negative feedback… and of course, we made our rebuttal. The Rundown This episode’s rundown was music themed! The Vietnamese Service reported about Vietnamese pop singer Dam Vinh Hung, who got in hot water for wearing a military-themed costume accentuated with medals that looked like those issued by the South Vietnamese during the Vietnam War, the faction that lost and was considered the enemy of the faction that won and set up the current government. Hung revealed that the medal in question had the words “HIGH QUALITY GARMENT” on it and therefore was obviously not a replica of any South Vietnamese medal, but another medal he wore said “Marine Semper Fi,” which is the motto of the U.S. Marines. Whoops. Hung did however say that he would never wear this costume again, so as not to offend anyone. The Korean Service reported about a new music video in North Korea that praises leader Kim Jong Un as the country’s “Friendly Father.”  Eugene revealed that he is a stan of the vocalist Kim Ryu Kyong, even if she is singing an over the top propaganda song. The video is also over the top with so many dolled-up apparently average North Koreans singing Kim’s praises that it has entertainment value for reasons its makers perhaps did not anticipate. Another interesting aspect of the video is that it contains some expensive musical instruments and equipment that may be violations of sanctions. So it is possible that part of the purpose of this video is for North Korea to thumb its nose at the world, showing that it can get around sanctions. How It’s Made We talked to Tara McKelvey and Jane Tang from RFA’s Investigative team about a their report on Wang Shujun, a pro-democracy activist from New York who is accused of spying for China. Wang allegedly met with Chinese intelligence agents and passed them information about Chinese dissidents located in the U.S. Through the discussion we learn that Wang is a very interesting character and that this case could serve as a precedent for other so-called “disposable assets” who may have been unwittingly serving as spies, possibly without their own knowledge. BACK TO MAIN

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China’s third aircraft carrier completes first sea trial

Satellite imagery shows China’s third aircraft carrier Fujian has returned to Shanghai Jiangnan Shipyard after completing an eight-day maiden sea trial. In a Planet Labs image from May 9, 2024, obtained by Radio Free Asia, the Fujian was seen moving back to its berth at Jiangnan, where it was built and fitted out over the last six years. During the sea trial that began on May 1, the carrier tested its propulsion and electrical systems and other equipment, and “achieved the expected results,” according to China Military Online. It will conduct follow-up tests according to established plans, the People’s Liberation Army’s news outlet said. “If previous experience is any guide, we can expect three to five months of sea trials to ensure the integrity of the hull and propulsion systems,” said Robert Farley, a senior lecturer at the University of Kentucky. “If everything goes well, Fujian could begin flight operations this year,” Farley said, adding that it could take a year or more for the aircraft carrier to “actually be operational.” Sailors assigned to China’s third aircraft carrier Fujian conduct maiden sea trial in an undated photo. (China Military Online) Fujian will likely host Shenyang J-15 fighters, as well as the next generation J-35s, JL-10 trainer jets and the new Xian KJ-600 fixed-wing AEWC (airborne early warning and control) aircraft. The airplanes would be launched from the carrier’s deck by a modern system called Catapult Assisted Take-Off Barrier Arrested Recovery (CATOBAR) that so far has only been used by the U.S. and French navies. It is the first Chinese aircraft carrier equipped with CATOBAR. China’s first two flattops – Liaoning and Shandong – use a ski jump-style launch system. The CATOBAR system is able to launch more and heavier aircraft than the ski jump system. At 80,000 tons, Fujian is of the same size as a U.S. Nimitz-class carrier but smaller than the new Gerald R. Ford carrier of 100,000 tons.  “Even after commissioning the Chinese will still have lots to learn, so we can expect Fujian to operate at a slower pace than a U.S. supercarrier, even given the differences in size,” said Farley. However, at the end of this process China will have “a very advanced carrier, probably more advanced and capable than the carriers currently operated by France or the United Kingdom,” the maritime affairs expert told RFA. Strategic platform The Chinese navy released a number of photographs and a nearly eight-minute video showing the Fujian’s movements during the sea trial. Chinese experts were quoted by the Global Times as saying that the successful maiden voyage “has laid a solid foundation for future test voyages, and marks a concrete step toward its commissioning” into the navy. The fleet of three aircraft carriers would boost the navy’s combat capability and serve as strategic platforms to safeguard China’s sovereignty, they said. China’s third aircraft carrier moving back to berth at Jiangnan Shipyard, Shanghai, on May 9, 2024. (Planet Labs) China already has numerically the largest navy in the world with an overall battle force of over 370 ships and submarines, compared with the U.S.’s 293 ships and submarines. It also has the largest coast guard fleet in the world, besides a powerful maritime militia. A report by the U.S. think-tank Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments said that in addition to its three aircraft carriers, China may build another two in the next 10 years. “No one would ever go through the process of learning CATOBAR operations just to build one carrier, so I expect that we’ll see at least one more ship of Fujian’s type,” Farley said. Edited by Mike Firn.

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Myanmar insurgents accused of recruiting Rohingya in Bangladesh camps

Myanmar Muslim insurgents have pressed about 500 Rohingya refugees in camps in Bangladesh to join the war in their homeland where fighting between rival factions has intensified sharply in recent weeks, refugees told Radio Free Asia.   Members of the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) and the smaller Rohingya Solidarity Organization have taken their fellow Muslim Rohingya refugees from the camps for military training, said people living in the world’s largest camp in southeast Bangladesh. RFA could not reach either of the insurgent groups for comment nor authorities responsible for the camps in Bangladesh. The reports, if confirmed, could herald intensifying conflict in western Myanmar’s Rakhine State where residents say the Myanmar junta has been pressing members of the persecuted Rohingya minority to help battle one of Myanmar most powerful insurgent forces, the Arakan Army, which draws it support from the state’s majority ethnic Rakhine Buddhist community. “Everyone is running from the camp,” said one Rohingya refugee who declined to be identified fearing for his safety. “Children under the age of 18 are being caught and sold to those groups … it’s said they are being sent to the Burma side to reinforce in the battles but I don’t know who they’re fighting against.” The refugees had been detained in the camps between April 29 and May 8, most of them between the ages of 14 and 30, said the refugee, who complained that Bangladesh authorities were doing nothing to stop the abductions, which averaged at about one young man per household. ARSA fighters attacked a string of Myanmar government border posts in 2017, triggering a sweeping crackdown by the Myanmar army that sent some one million Rohingya villagers fleeing to safety in Bangladesh. The rebel force, which is seeking self-determination in the state, surged in strength in the wake of that violence and is now one of Myanmar’s main groups fighting junta forces to end military rule.  “These are terrorist organizations,” another refugee said of the two groups whose members he said came at night to press-gang people. “Even 12 or 14-year-old children were among those arrested.” Rohingya villagers still living in Myanmar appear increasingly at risk as the junta army and the Arakan insurgents battle it out. Since the Arakan Army stepped up its attacks on the military in November, both sides have been accused of recruiting or killing Rohingya from camps for internally displaced people in Rakhine State. The ARSA has in the past been accused of violence against its own members living in Bangladesh and of faith-based massacres on Hindu villagers. Nearly one million refugees live in the camps in Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar district, according to the latest U.N. figures.  Translated by RFA Burmese. Edited by Kiana Duncan and Mike Firn.

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Fake images of US college protests circulate in China

Pro-Palestinian protests on U.S. college campuses have gotten attention on Chinese social media, but some of these posts show unrelated demonstrations that happened months or even years earlier. One aerial video showing a massive gathering of thousands of people packed together – purported to be at Columbia University in New York – is actually a demonstration in January in Hamburg, Germany, against a far-right political group. Another photo claimed to show a protester holding up a famous Mao Zedong quote in Chinese, “Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun.” But Asia Fact Check Lab found this to be from a pro-gun rally held in Virginia in 2020.  As the Israeli-Hamas conflict drags into its seventh month, student demonstrations supporting the Palestininans and calling for a cease-fire have spread across dozens of U.S. university campuses. The aerial video of thousands gathered in public was shared on the popular Chinese social media platform Weibo on April 28, with the breathless caption: “U.S. university demonstration: Pro-Palestinian protest at Columbia University is majestic!”  Chinese netizens claimed that a video posted on Weibo shows a pro-Palestinian demonstration in April, but in reality it wasn’t. (Screenshot/Weibo and TikTok) But a reverse image search found the video, shared on TikTok  Jan. 21, 2024, actually depicted 80,000 people in Hamburg, Germany, protesting against the far-right Alternative for Germany, or AfD, party “since their ‘secret meeting’ with the fascist Identitarian Movement was revealed. Keyword searches including “AfD” found the Hamburg demonstrations were one amongst a series of protests to break out against the party after a news report surfaced that the group had considered a plan to expel all people of “non-German backgrounds” from the country, including immigrants who have already obtained residency at a meeting with influential leaders. Video of demonstrations against the AfD released by German media and government agencies match the purported footage of pro-Palestianian demonstrations at Columbia University spread on Weibo. (Screenshots/YouTube) In another case, a number of Weibo influencers and X accounts also recently claimed that one protester at an unspecified college campus held up a poster with the Mao quote, “Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun.”  But this is false. The photo is from a pro-gun rally held in Virginia in 2020, and has nothing to do with any pro-Palestine demonstration.  The photo of a purported April protest recently spread on Weibo has actually been circulated online since 2020. (Screenshot/Sina Military and Weibo) A reserve image search reveals that a version of the same image shown in a larger frame was published in an article published on the Chinese military news blog Sina Military in 2020 Keyword searches using visual clues from the photo, including a banner that reads Constitutional Conservatives, found that it shows a rally held by pro-gun advocates from all across the U.S. in Richmond in 2020.  A closer look at the image also shows a street sign reading “N. 9th St.” at the top of the frame. A search in Google Maps found that this was a street in Richmond and not part of the university campus.  A person uploaded a photo of the pro-gun rally to Google Maps in January 2020 in real time as it was happening. (Screenshot/Google Maps) Translated by Shen Ke. Edited by Shen Ke, Taejun Kang and Malcolm Foster. Asia Fact Check Lab (AFCL) was established to counter disinformation in today’s complex media environment. We publish fact-checks, media-watches and in-depth reports that aim to sharpen and deepen our readers’ understanding of current affairs and public issues. If you like our content, you can also follow us on Facebook, Instagram and X.

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Hundreds of Myanmar junta troops surrender near Bangladesh border

At least 200 Myanmar junta troops have surrendered after an ethnic minority army captured their headquarters in Rakhine State, near the Bangladesh border, the anti-junta organization said on Monday.  The Arakan Army, which has been fighting the military regime for territory since a year-long ceasefire ended in November 2023, captured a junta camp in western Myanmar’s Rakhine State, near the Bangladesh border, last Thursday. The No.15 Operation Command Headquarters fell to the Arakan Army after a 12-day battle, the latest in a series of setbacks for the junta that seized power in a coup in 2021. The insurgent force released video footage of hundreds of soldiers and others surrendering. Some of the 200 soldiers pictured in the videos were captured from five battalions in late March and April, the Arakan Army said in a statement, identifying the battalions as the 552, 564, 565 and 551. “All of these battalions were captured by a heavy offensive attack between March 25 and May 3,” the group said. Junta soldiers as well as some Rohingya Muslims could also be seen in the video footage released by the Arakan Army. Some Rohingya have complained of being forced into the junta’s army. The Arakan insurgent group did not say how many junta troops it held but said they had surrendered because of its blockade of their Operation Command Headquarters. Junta troops and family members under No.15 Operation Command Headquarters surrendered to the Arakan Army, released on May 6, 2024. (Arakan Army Information Desk) Rakhine State’s junta spokesperson, Hla Thein, did not answer his telephone when RFA tried to contact him for comment by the time of publication.  Of the 12 military council battalions in Buthidaung township under the No.15 Operation Command Headquarters, five, including the No.15 Operation Command Headquarters, have been captured. Since November, the Arakan Army has captured nine townships across Rakhine State. Fighting continues in Ann, Buthidaung, Maungdaw, and Kyaukpyu townships. Translated by RFA Burmese. Edited by Kiana Duncan and Mike Firn. 

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INTERVIEW: Former North Korean diplomat on the drawbacks of being elite

Ryu Hyun-woo was North Korea’s acting ambassador to Kuwait when he defected to South Korea in 2019. As one of the elites in North Korea, he had rights and privileges that ordinary citizens do not. But at the same time, he and others like him were under even more scrutiny than the average citizen, he says. Ryu lived in an apartment complex in Pyongyang where all of his neighbors were high-ranking North Korean officials. In an interview with RFA Korean, Ryu explained that life as an elite is like already having “one foot in hell” because of the constant surveillance their lives are under, and how easily they are discarded if the leader needs someone to take the blame. The interview has been edited for length and clarity. RFA: Can you tell us a little bit about your background? Ryu: I was born in Pyongyang. I graduated from the Pyongyang Foreign Language Institute and Pyongyang University of Foreign Studies, majoring in Arabic. I then joined the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and worked there for over 20 years. After working as a diplomat in Syria and Kuwait, I came to South Korea in September 2019. I have settled in and I am living well in South Korea. RFA: When you were in North Korea, you lived in and exclusive area of Pyongyang, correct? Do all the elites live in the same area? Ryu: The administrative district name is Uiam-dong, Taedonggang district, Pyongyang. This place is also called Eundok village, and it is the residence of many officials. There are six major buildings in the residence. The generals of the North Korean People’s Army live in four of the buildings. One building is for high-ranking officials in the Central Committee. The remaining one is where high-ranking officials of the administrative department live. RFA: We often hear about North Korea’s chronic shortages of electricity. Did the elevators on these buildings cut out from time to time like they do for everyone else living in apartments? Ryu: You’re right. North Korea has a poor power supply system. Because of it, the elevator sometimes stops working. However, there are times when it operates normally. For example, during commuting hours, it is guaranteed. Nevertheless, the electricity often drops even during commuting hours.  My house was on the 4th floor. Oh Guk Ryol, the head of the operations department, lived on the 5th floor, and Director Kim Yang Gon lived on the 3rd floor. The former head of the United Front Work Department and Oh Guk Ryol came down from the floors above, and my father-in-law (Jon Il Chun, the former head Office 39, the secretive organization that manages the slush funds of the Kim family) and I would get on to the elevator. As we were going down, Kim Yang Gon got on.  Then just as the elevator was going down to the second floor, it suddenly stopped. I was the youngest of everyone there, so I had no choice but to open the escape hatch on the ceiling of the elevator. It’s like a vent. I climbed up to the third floor and I saw something that looked like a latch that opens the elevator door. I opened the door with it, contacted the management, and rescued the other officials in the elevator. The electricity situation was so bad. RFA: Can living in that area of Pyongyang be seen as a matter of pride for its residents? Ryu: It can be interpreted as having a lot of trust and high loyalty. However, there are pros and cons. Once you enter this place, you are subject to wiretapping, stalking and strong surveillance. You can’t say anything inside your house.  For example, wasn’t Chief of Staff Ri Yong Ho shot to death? It was because he was at home making slanderous remarks about Kim Jong Un with his wife. He was purged and disappeared. My mother-in-law kept pointing to her mouth whenever I tried to complain about something. She told me to be quiet and not to say anything because they listen to everything.  To that extent, they wiretap 24 hours a day. That’s why there is a different way to share thoughts. My in-laws would wake up around 5:30 in the morning. I would wake up around 6 o’clock. Then we go for a jog or walk together. That’s the time my father-in-law would ask me questions and I would also talk to him.  For example, while I was in Syria, I heard a South Korean refer to my father-in-law as ‘Kim Jong Il’s safekeeper,’ so I passed that on to my father-in-law. RFA: You told your father-in-law about something that came out in the South Korean media? Ryu: I told my father-in-law that in South Korea, he is referred to as ‘Kim Jong Il’s safekeeper.’ My father-in-law laughed. I told him those things, secret things that should not be caught by wiretapping. We exchanged stories like that while taking a walk or in a place where wiretapping does not work. Ryu Hyun-woo (right), who served as North Korea’s acting ambassador to Kuwait in 2019, escaped from North Korea and has now settled in South Korea, in a frame grab from an interview with RFA Korea. (RFA) RFA: Was there ever any frightful incident you witnessed while living there? Ryu: The household we were closest to was Park Nam Ki, director of the Planning and Finance Department of the ruling party of North Korea. Do you remember the currency reform in 2009?  (That was when North Korea introduced new versions of its paper currency, but allowed the people to exchange only a certain amount of their old currency, thereby wiping out most people’s savings.) As a result of that incident, Park Nam Ki was shot to death in January 2010. In February of the same year, Park Nam Ki’s entire family members went to a political prison camp. I remembered it was around 1 or 2 o’clock in the morning. There was a truck from…

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The Techo Funan Canal won’t end Cambodia’s dependency on Vietnam

First it was the Ream Naval Base. Now it’s the Techo Funan Canal.  Could the planned $1.7-billion waterway that will cut through eastern Cambodia – which will be built, funded and owned by a Chinese state firm – be used by Beijing to attack or threaten Vietnam?  Phnom Penh denies this and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet reportedly had to assuage the Vietnamese leadership of this concern during a visit last December.  Sun Chanthol, a Cambodian deputy prime minister and the former minister of public works, recently said he also tried to mollify Hanoi’s concerns about the project, formally known as the Tonle Bassac Navigation Road and Logistics System Project. The United States has been more vocal than Vietnam in raising concerns over the Ream Naval Base in southern Cambodia, which China is extensively refurbishing and where China appears to have stationed some vessels for the past few months.  Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet wave in Hanoi, Dec.11, 2023 during Manet’s visit to boost bilateral relations between the two Southeast Asian nations. (Hau Dinh/AP) But Hanoi’s worries about the Techo Funan Canal have leaked out in drabs from within Vietnam.  Last month, an academic journal article by two researchers at the Oriental Research Development Institute, part of the state-run Union of Science and Technology Associations, warned that the Cambodian canal might be a “dual-use” project.  “The locks on the Funan Techo Canal can create the necessary water depths for military vessels to enter from the Gulf of Thailand, or from Ream Naval Base, and travel deep into Cambodia and approach the [Cambodia-Vietnam] border,” they argued in a study that was republished on the website of the People’s Public Security Political Academy.  Geopolitical implications One ought to be skeptical. China having access to the Ream Naval Base is one thing— it is a military base. It makes sense for Beijing to want to station and refuel its vessels on the Gulf of Thailand, effectively encircling Vietnam.  But if China was thinking of attacking Vietnam, wouldn’t it be simpler for the Chinese navy to follow Cambodia’s coastline to Vietnam? Beijing presumably wouldn’t want its vessels to be stuck in a relatively narrow Cambodian canal.  But if you can imagine Cambodia allowing the Chinese military access to its inland waterways to invade Vietnam, why not imagine Phnom Penh allowing the Chinese military to zip along its (Chinese-built) expressways and railways to invade Vietnam?  If you are of that mindset, then Cambodia’s road or rail networks are just as much of a threat, or perhaps more so, as Cambodia’s naval bases or canals. Two Chinese warships, circled, are seen at Cambodia’s Ream naval base on April 18, 2024. (Planet Labs) Nonetheless, the canal has geopolitical implications for Vietnam.  Cambodia exports and imports many of its goods through Vietnamese ports, mainly Cai Mep. The Funan Techo Canal, by connecting the Phnom Penh Autonomous Port to a planned deepwater port in Kep province and an already-built deep seaport in Sihanoukville province, would mean that much of Cambodia’s trade no longer needs to go through Vietnam.  Phnom Penh can justifiably say this is a matter of economic self-sufficiency. “Breathing through our own nose,” as Hun Manet put it. Phnom Penh reckons the canal will cut shipping costs by a third.  Cambodia has a dependency on Vietnam’s ports. If Cambodia-Vietnam relations turned really sour, such as Phnom Penh giving the Chinese military access to its land, Hanoi could close off Cambodia’s access to its ports or threaten to do so, effectively blocking much of Cambodian trade – like it did briefly in 1994.  Remove that dependency, and Vietnam has less leverage over Phnom Penh’s decision making.  Mekong River projects Even the environmental concerns around the canal are about geopolitical leverage.  Vietnam is justified in fearing that Cambodia altering the course of the Mekong River—after Laos has been doing so for two decades—will affect its own already at-risk ecology.  Fears are compounded by the lack of publicly available environmental impact assessments over the canal and the fact that the Mekong River Commission, a regional oversight body that is supposed to assess the environmental impact of these riparian projects, has become a feckless body for dialogue.   Vietnam’s Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh and China’s President Xi Jinping, following a meeting at the Government Office in Hanoi, Dec. 13, 2023. (Nhac Nguyen/Pool Photo via AP) Hanoi is no doubt concerned about its own position since it hasn’t been able to get Phnom Penh to openly publish those impact assessments. This further compounds Vietnam’s sense of weakness for having failed for more than a decade to limit how its neighbors go about altering their sections of the Mekong River, with highly deleterious impacts on Vietnam’s environment and agricultural heartlands.  Clearly, Phnom Penh isn’t for turning on the canal project. Just this week, Hun Manet applauded apparent public support for the scheme as a “huge force of nationalism”. Phnom Penh is making this a sovereignty issue, thus making criticism a matter of state interference, a way of silencing dissent in Southeast Asia.  It’s not all bad news for Vietnam, though. The Financial Times noted that, according to Vietnamese analysts, even if the Techo Funan Canal goes ahead, “Hanoi retains leverage over Cambodia” because ships carrying more than 1,000 tonnes would still rely on Vietnamese ports.  Cambodia could get around this by using smaller vessels. That would be less profitable but still doable. By my calculation, Cambodia’s exports to Vietnam have grown by more than 800% over the last six years, from $324 million in 2018 to $2.97 billion last year.  In the first quarter of this year, Vietnam bought 22 percent of Cambodia’s goods. Exports certainly give leverage. No other single country is queuing up to start buying a fifth of Cambodia’s products.  Trade dependency In fact many of these Cambodian exports are re-exported by Vietnam to China, so Phnom Penh might think it can cut out the Vietnamese middleman. But it cannot.  Arguably, Cambodia’s…

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