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Category: East Asia
Counting underway in Taiwan’s pivotal presidential election
Voting has ended and counting is underway in Taiwan’s presidential election, a ballot that will shape its future relationship with China and stance on independence and stability. Polls opened at 8:00 a.m. at nearly 18,000 locations, from the island’s south to its capital Taipei and closed at 4 p.m with votes immediately being counted and reported to the election authorities soon after. The result for Saturday’s election should be clear by late evening when the losers concede and the winner gives a victory speech. At stake is the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait between the Chinese mainland and the self-governed island, claimed by Beijing as its own, but equally important are bread-and-butter issues. Key candidates in the presidential race are: Vice President Lai Ching-te of the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Hou Yu-ih of the Beijing-favored Kuomintang (KMT) and Ko Wen-je of Taiwan’s People’s Party (TPP). Former physician and mayor of Tainan, Lai, known for his support of Taiwan independence, aims to continue President Tsai’s policies of maintaining Taiwan’s de facto independence amidst heightened tensions with Beijing. Facing challenges like slow wage growth and high housing costs, Lai’s DPP, once an opposition to the KMT’s rule, now faces criticisms of being the establishment. “Today is a glorious day, great weather to vote. I encourage everyone to go vote, demonstrate the vigor of Taiwanese democracy,” said Lai after casting his vote in his hometown of Tainan. “Let Taiwan continue to move forward.” Hou from the KMT, a former police officer and mayor of New Taipei City, represents a “Taiwanese flavor” in politics, which his party believes could help attract a broader voter base beyond its traditional supporters; he advocates for dialogue with Beijing under the “1992 consensus” to reduce cross-strait tensions. However, the viability of this consensus is in question since Chinese President Xi Jinping’s 2019 interpretation aligned it with a stringent “one China principle,” echoing the increasingly restrictive model seen in Hong Kong. “I am very happy to see people voluntarily come out to vote early in the morning. This demonstrates a very important voting behavior of Taiwanese democracy in the electoral process – where democracy is used to select the most ideal president, vice president and legislators,” said Hou after voting in New Taipei City. “More importantly, no matter how chaotic the election process is, everyone must unite after the election.” Ko, a former surgeon turned politician, founded the TPP four years ago, focusing on domestic issues like energy and housing, after a surprising victory in Taipei’s mayoral race as an independent. While the TPP isn’t strong enough to dominate the legislature, Ko aims to position it as a parliamentary power broker, advocating for a coalition with the KMT and offering a “third choice” to voters, with policies aligning more closely with the KMT’s stance on China. Asked by journalists how he felt after casting his ballot in Taipei, Ko said:”Keep a normal mind, finish what one needs to finish every day, and plan for the next stage after each is completed.” An official of a polling station holds up a ballot slip, as vote counting for the presidential elections commences, at a high school in New Taipei City on January 13, 2024. (Sam Yeh / AFP) Just hours before the polls got underway China continued to assert its presence in the region. Taiwan’s defense ministry said eight People’s Liberation Army (PLA) aircraft and six PLA Navy vessels were detected around the island as of 6 a.m. local time, with one aircraft entering Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone. Some voters may be dissuaded from supporting independence-leaning candidates by China’s military threats, but the United States has pledged support for whichever government forms. A White House official said on Wednesday that U.S. President Joe Biden will send an “unofficial” delegation of former officials to Taiwan following the presidential elections. Aside from tensions with China, the Taiwan election is also predominantly determined by domestic concerns. In November 2023, Taiwan’s statistics bureau reported its GDP growth forecast as 1.42%, the lowest since 2008. Taiwan is grappling with soaring housing prices, ranked among the highest globally, while its wage levels were among the lowest compared to other developed economies, according to March figures. The outcome of the elections will also impact the security and economy of neighboring countries like Japan and South Korea. Taro Aso, the former Prime Minister of Japan, recently warned that China’s territorial claims on Taiwan could lead to a dire crisis for Japan, necessitating Tokyo’s intervention in the Taiwan Strait during any conflict to protect its citizens. Additionally, a Bloomberg Economics report released on Tuesday indicated that South Korea’s GDP would face the second-largest drop, after Taiwan, if a war were to break out between China and the democratic island. A woman casts her vote in the presidential election at a polling station in a temple in New Taipei City on Jan. 13, 2024. (Alastair Pike/AFP) Experts who spoke to Radio Free Asia said they believe maintaining the status quo is considered the safest approach regardless of the outcome of the elections. Despite Beijing’s ongoing threats to use force to reclaim Taiwan, there’s little belief in an immediate invasion by China, they said, citing several factors at play: Taiwan’s determination to maintain its freedom and identity, the relations between Washington and Beijing, and the U.S.’s commitment to protecting Taiwan’s interests. Above all, the economic cost of a conflict could be devastating for the region and the world. For one, Taiwan is the leading global producer of the most advanced semiconductors. Beyond the presidential and vice presidential elections, there are also 113 legislative seats up for grabs. More than 83% of the total population, or approximately 19.55 million voters, are eligible to cast their ballot. In 2020, DPP President Tsai Ing-wen and her running mate Lai won over 8.17 million votes, or 57.13% of the total, to defeat Han Kuo-yu and Chang San-cheng of the KMT. Additionally, a majority of seats was gained by the DPP in the…
Experts denounce trips to Xinjiang as ‘genocide tourism’
The Chinese government has thrown open the door for tourists to Xinjiang. Or at least those it deems worthy of an invite. While officials previously let in diplomats, journalists and those considered “friends of China,” they are now presenting the restive far-western region as a tourist destination of sorts in a bid to remove some of the tarnish from China’s image as a human rights violator in the far-western region in the eyes of the international community. Nearly 400 delegations and groups consisting of more than 4,300 people from various countries and international organizations visited the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region in 2023, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said at a press conference on Jan. 5. Visitors included government officials, diplomats, religious figures, experts, scholars, and journalists as well as ordinary travelers, he said. Unlike travel in the rest of China, however, visits remain by invitation only and visitors are led on government-sponsored tours. These include trips to mosques and heritage sites “to see how Xinjiang’s traditional culture is protected,” Wang said. “They went to local factories, businesses and farms to learn about Xinjiang’s production and development, and visited ordinary households where they saw the happy life of people of various ethnic groups.” “Seeing is believing,” he said. “People are not blind to the truth. For certain countries, they are comfortable telling lies about genocide and forced labor in Xinjiang…. Xinjiang will keep its door open to the world.” Foreign envoys visit an exhibition on Xinjiang’s anti-terrorism and de-radicalization work in Urumqi, capital of northwestern China’s Xinjiang region, Aug. 4, 2023. (Zhao Chenjie/Xinhua via Getty Images) The move comes as China gets ready for its fourth Universal Periodic Review, or UPR — a Human Rights Council mechanism that calls for each U.N. member state to undergo a peer review of its human rights records every 4.5 years. The review is scheduled to be held in Geneva, Switzerland, on Jan. 23. Authorities have tightly controlled who enters Xinjiang, where harsh repression of Uyghurs and other Muslims in recent years has amounted to genocide and crimes against humanity, according to the United States, the United Nations, the parliaments of other Western countries and human rights groups. Authorities in Xinjiang have detained an estimated 1.8 million Uyghurs and other Turkic Muslims, destroyed thousands of mosques and banned the Uyghur language in schools and government offices. China has said that the “re-education camps” have been closed and has denied any policy to erase Uyghur culture. A recent CBS documentary on China’s “rebranding” effort shows surveillance cameras and facial recognition devices monitoring Uyghurs. The name of the ancient town of Kashgar appears in Chinese as “Kashi” on signs and billboards, while the 15th-century Id Kah Mosque — closed to local Muslims since 2016 — has been transformed into a tourist attraction. Through the scripted travel junkets, the Chinese government is spreading a narrative that Uyghurs live happy lives to cover up Beijing’s severe human rights violations in Xinjiang, experts on the region said. Foreign visitors, in turn, have perpetuated the narrative through photos and posts on their social media accounts. Criticism from rights groups The dissemination of propaganda and China’s efforts to enhance the image of Xinjiang have sparked criticism from human rights groups. Claudia Bennett, a legal and program officer at Human Rights Foundation, said the orchestrated visits conceal the harsh realities of forced family separations, arbitrary detentions of millions in concentration or forced labor camps, and thousands of Uyghurs living in exile and forcibly rendered stateless. “In a strategic effort to legitimize its colonization of the Uyghur region, the Chinese Communist Party carefully organizes propagandist visits for diplomats, journalists and religious scholars,” she told Radio Free Asia. “These tours are designed to whitewash the CCP’s gross human rights violations.” The U.S.-based Uyghur Human Rights Foundation, or UHRP, called the visits “genocide tourism” in a report issued last Aug. 30, saying that they help China conceal genocide and crimes against humanity occurring in Xinjiang. Dolkun Isa, president of the World Uyghur Congress, took the criticism of the junkets a step further. “Collaborating with China’s propaganda equates to complicity in genocide – a grave crime,” he said. “Humanity will not forget, and the Uyghur nation will not forget. Those involved will be held accountable before history.” Hector Dorbecker, counselor for economic-commercial and financial affairs at the Embassy of Mexico in Beijing, tries to play dutar, a long-necked two-stringed lute, in Jiayi village of Xinhe county in northwestern China’s Xinjiang region, Aug. 2, 2023. (Zhao Chenjie/Xinhua via Getty Images) Travel and excursion propaganda to portray life in Xinjiang as normal is part of “Beijing’s current strategy,” explained Adrian Zenz, an expert on China’s policies in Xinjiang. “They are showing Uyghurs and Uyghur culture, but not real and free people or culture, but a hollowed out version, a mummified version, like a CCP museum,” said Zenz, director of China studies at the U.S.-based Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation. With the U.N.’s UPR session on the horizon, there can be little doubt that Beijing is touting the visits as a way to counter criticism of its policies in Xinjiang, said Sophie Richardson, former China director at Human Rights Watch. The main problem with the UPR, however, is that there are no penalties for failing to comply or to correct abuses, Richardson added. “Beijing has proven just how easy it is to manipulate the process to keep independent civil society, both inside and outside China, out of the process … and to submit a national report that is breathtakingly dishonest in its claims to upholding human rights.” Translated by RFA Uyghur. Edited by Roseanne Gerin and Abby Seiff.
Ex-junta official says Shan state ceasefire is ‘not sustainable’
Junta officials and a resistance alliance agreed to a temporary ceasefire during talks in China, a person attending the meeting told Radio Free Asia on Friday morning. The Three Brotherhood Alliance and regime representatives reached the decision during peace talks in China’s Kunming on Thursday. The agreement was signed into effect at 10 p.m., the anonymous source said, asking RFA not to disclose his name because he was not authorized to talk to the media. As a result of the discussion, the allied Arakan Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and Ta’ang National Liberation Army agreed to cease capturing cities and military camps in northern Shan state. Junta officials agreed not to instigate aerial attacks and operate heavy weaponry. China’s border with Myanmar would be re-opened after renegotiation among the three northern alliances, junta officials and China when the area is more stable, the meeting attendee said. This decision is a result of Chinese pressure and would not be sustainable in the long run, said an ex-military official, who asked RFA to protect his identity for safety reasons. “This ceasefire is due to pressure from China. China definitely put pressure on both sides, because Yunnan’s industrial products are affected. Because of this, a ceasefire agreement was reached before the resolution was clear,” he said. “This halt is a breather for the junta council. The Three Brotherhood Alliance also breathed a sigh of relief. And China also breathes a sigh of relief. But I want to say that this is not a long-term, stable situation.” Neither party could deny it was a result of Chinese pressure, said Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a political and military analyst based in China. “There are pros and cons. Some say this could set back the Spring Revolution. I don’t think so. As for the northern group, they still need to rest in order to prepare their armies in peace, and the ceasefire is temporary,” she told RFA. “It’s a good thing to stop temporarily and politically discuss. They also need to be free to discuss. There may be some consideration for what China wants [from the Three Brotherhood Alliance] when China intervenes.” Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning voiced Beijing’s support for the ceasefire at a regular news conference Friday. “China hopes the relevant parties in Myanmar can conscientiously implement the agreement, exercise maximum restraint toward each other and solve the issues through dialogue and consultations,” she said, adding that the ceasefire was also in China’s interests. “The two sides promised not to undermine the safety of Chinese people living in the border area and Chinese projects and personnel in Myanmar,” she said. A previously reported cease-fire was not honored by either side. The result of this discussion is only for northern Shan state and would not apply to Rakhine state, added the meeting attendee. The Arakan Army’s attacks have also impacted Chinese development projects in Rakhine. On Monday morning, the Arakan Army launched an offensive on a junta naval base in a Chinese special economic zone. Representatives from the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, Arakan Army, and Ta’ang Liberation Army attended the meeting, said the anonymous source. Lt. Gen. Min Naing and five members from the military council also attended, he added, as well as China’s special representative Deng Xin Jun. Since Operation 1027 launched on October 27, 2023, 15 out of 22 townships in northern Shan state have been occupied by northern resistance groups, according to data compiled by RFA. Combined troops from Karenni National Defense Force, People’s Liberation Army, Bamar People’s Liberation Army have captured six cities across Shan state, including Chinshwehaw, Kunlong and Hsenwi. The United Wa State Army has since captured Hopang and Pan Lon cities. The Ta’ang Liberation Army also seized Namhsan and Manton, in addition to other cities in Ta’ang Self-Administered Zone, including Namhkam, Mongngawt, and Namtu cities. Translated by RFA Burmese. Edited by Mike Firn.
Kokang handover of towns to Wa rebels seen as boon to Myanmar resistance
The handover to ethnic Wa fighters of two towns seized from the military by Kokang rebels last week is likely part of a bid to elicit their support in the fight against the junta and deals a blow to the regime’s hold on power in northern Myanmar, observers said Thursday. On Jan. 4, fighters with the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, or MNDAA, stormed the junta’s Kokang regional command center in Laukkaing township – the largest base in northern Shan state near the Chinese border – prompting soldiers in the facility to lay down their arms, despite the military’s attempt to defend the facility from afar with artillery fire and airstrikes. A day later, the MNDAA seized the towns of Pang Long and Hopang from the military in the Wa Self-Administered Region’s Hopang township, located around 6.5 kilometers (4 miles) away from Laukkaing’s town of Chinshwehaw. Under MNDAA protection, armed troops with the United Wa State Army, or UWSA, later entered the townships as some 700 junta troops and their family members retreated to the Wa region town of Lashio. A military analyst, who spoke to RFA Burmese on condition of anonymity due to security reasons, noted that the MNDAA and UWSA are former allies and said the MNDAA made the handover to ensure relations between the two groups remain on good terms. “[The MNDAA] will not maintain friendship with the Wa if [they] establish an administrative system by themselves [in Hopang and Pang Long] as they did in Chinshwehaw and [nearby] Kunlong after seizing those towns,” the analyst said. Hopang and Pang Long are part of an area formerly controlled by the UWSA that was handed over to the then-military regime, the State Law and Order Restoration Council, as part of a negotiated ceasefire agreement. “So it was expected that the [MNDAA] would attack Hopang and Pang Long and hand them to the Wa, even though the Wa were not involved in the fight to occupy them,” the analyst said. The MNDAA had taken control of Chinshwehaw after the start of Operation 1027, an offensive it launched along with the Ta’ang National Liberation Army and the Arakan Army as part of the so-called Three Brotherhood Alliance of ethnic armies in late October that has since reportedly captured 10 townships in northern Shan state and seized control of more than 200 junta camps. Wa assumes control On Wednesday, the MNDAA handed over Pang Long and Hopang to the UWSA, which controls territory connected to the two townships, in a formal ceremony, according to residents and UWSA officials. The UWSA is Myanmar’s largest ethnic army, and in November had vowed to remain neutral amid Operation 1027. Myint Than, a resident of Hopang, told RFA that the UWSA “greeted locals cordially” during the handover and noted that while junta troops and their families had left, “it is not true that the [ethnic majority] Bamars were driven out.” “The Bamars have been operating clothing stores, all of which have been allowed to reopen,” she said. “It is likely that those who have joined the [anti-junta] Civil Disobedience Movement [boycotting state jobs under the military regime] will be re-employed.” The handover ceremony for the Myanmar towns of Hopang and Panglong on Jan. 10, 2024 drew a crowd. (Citizen journalist) The 2008 constitution designated the six townships of Hopang, Mongmao, Pangwaun, Narphan, Matman, and Pangsang/Pangkham of northeastern Shan state as the Wa Self-Administered Region. With the handover of Hopang township, the junta only controls Matman township, while the UWSA now controls the remaining five townships. Residents told RFA that the UWSA informed them they will be issued residential permits, which will allow them to travel freely within the entire Wa region. Handover ‘a positive’ for resistance A former military officer, who also declined to be named for fear of reprisal, said the junta is likely incensed by the handover, as Pang Long was home to a military base and a key part of its territory in northern Shan state. “To be frank, [the UWSA] managed to outwit them by taking those towns without a fight,” the officer said. “The military will not be pleased. The Wa have broken the status quo by taking these two towns.” Hla Kyaw Zaw, a political and military observer based in China, said that the UWSA’s occupation of Hopang and Pang Long would be good for the resistance. “I see the gradual unity of ethnic groups as a positive [for anti-junta forces],” she said. “The Wa focus on the interests of their own people and the MNDAA has said that its main goal is to regain the [ethnic] Kokang region and form a special region again. They realize that it would be impossible for them to do so only by freeing their own people.” “Since they understand that the whole country needs to be free from the military dictatorship, I believe they will assist the resistance, which will benefit the revolution,” she added. Translated by Htin Aung Kyaw. Edited by Joshua Lipes and Malcolm Foster.
China helps world achieve record renewable energy growth
China’s “extraordinary” acceleration in renewable energy capacity propelled 2023 to witness the fastest global growth rate in over twenty years, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a new report on Thursday. The world’s annual additions to renewable electricity generation capacity soared by nearly 50%, reaching approximately 510 gigawatts (GW) – marking the 22nd consecutive year of setting new records in renewable capacity growth, the Paris-based IEA said in its Renewables 2023 report. According to the report, China’s deployment of solar PV (photovoltaic) in 2023 increased by 116%, matching the global total of 2022, while its wind power installations increased by 66% compared to the previous year. The report predicted that the next five years will see the fastest growth yet, but warned the lack of financing for emerging and developing economies is a vital issue. The current expansion of renewable power has made the COP28 goal of tripling global capacity to at least 11,000 GW by 2030, which more than 130 governments agreed to during the climate change conference last month in Dubai. China, India, and Indonesia did not join the pledge due to its accompanying anti-coal stance and the more demanding goal of doubling the average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements to 4%. “Onshore wind and solar PV are cheaper today than new fossil fuel plants almost everywhere and cheaper than existing fossil fuel plants in most countries,” IEA’s executive director Fatih Birol said. “For me, the most important challenge for the international community is rapidly scaling up financing and deployment of renewables in most emerging and developing economies, many of which are being left behind in the new energy economy.” “Success in meeting the tripling goal will hinge on this.” This infographic shows renewable electricity capacity growth by country/region between 2005 and 2028. (IEA) Under existing policies and market conditions, global renewable power capacity is expected to grow to 7,300 GW by 2028, with renewables overtaking coal to become the largest source of global electricity generation by early 2025, according to IEA projection. The growth trajectory is about 2.5 times its current level, which is still short of the tripling goal by 2030. Asia-Pacific progress report The world’s second-biggest economy, China, has a renewable energy capacity to triple the previous five years’ increase of 2,000 GW in the next five years, making up 56% of the global increase, IEA said. From 2023 to 2028, China will add almost four times more renewable capacity than the European Union and five times more than the US, the second and third-largest growth market. According to IEA’s forecast, the world’s renewables “powerhouse” is expected to reach its national 2030 target for wind and solar PV installations – 1,200 GW – this year, six years ahead of schedule. By 2028, almost half of China’s electricity generation will come from renewable energy sources. A solar farm operates next to Donggou village near Shijiazhuang city in northern China’s Hebei province, Nov. 10, 2023. (Ng Han Guan/AP) Apart from China, the rest of Asia will see renewable capacity grow by 430 GW by 2028, a 73% increase from 2022 levels, with India driving half of the regional growth and ASEAN adding 14%. India is projected to add 205 GW by 2028, doubling its 2022 capacity, and is poised to become the third-largest global market for renewables. The 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is expected to increase renewable capacity by a combined 63 GW by 2028, IEA said. Southeast Asia has the potential to offer one of the highest global renewable growth possibilities, the IEA said, but would require “more ambitious renewable energy targets and prompt implementation of long-term, transparent, and competitive support policies.” In major Southeast Asian economies such as Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand, regulations and policy support gaps hinder renewable energy growth and project development. The overcapacity of young, contract-bound fossil fuel power plants, particularly coal and gas, impedes the transition to renewable energy by financially disincentivizing utilities from investing in new renewable projects. Vietnam’s rapid solar PV boom, with installations reaching 20 GW in 2019-2020, has led to challenges in integration, with a pressing need for more investment in transmission and distribution infrastructure. Last year, Vietnam and Indonesia signed into the Just Energy Transition Programme in a shift towards reassessing and potentially retiring older conventional plants, aided by international financial support to alleviate government budget pressures. Edited by Mike Firn and Taejun Kang.
World Bank urges Laos to raise VAT tax and taxes on tobacco, alcohol
Laos should raise its value-added tax rate and also increase taxes on cigarettes and alcohol as part of efforts to address high inflation and currency depreciation, the World Bank said. The government should also spend more money on health care and education to lay a foundation for future development, the bank’s representative in Laos, Alex Kremer, said in a report released last month. But the World Bank’s tax recommendations were mostly aimed at tackling Lao’s current troubled economy, which has struggled with rapidly rising prices, low foreign investment and public debt that could grow to 125 percent of GDP this year. The massive amount of debt, which reached US$18.7 billion at the end of 2022, has destabilized the country’s macroeconomy and slowed economic growth, Kremer said in the report. Just over half of the debt is owed to China, which helped Laos build the US$6 billion Lao-China High Speed Railway as part of its Belt and Road Initiative. Other major Chinese investments include roads and hydropower dams. Mining projects and local jobs Meanwhile, the government approved 192 concession projects last year worth almost US$5 billion in 2023, more than double the number from the previous year, according to the Ministry of Planning and Investment. Most of the investors are from China and Vietnam who are focused on the country’s mining, energy and agricultural sectors, the ministry said in a report. Projects approved by the government in 2022 were worth US$2.3 billion, according to the ministry. Most of the projects are in the mining sector, which could create more jobs for local people as companies seek to extract gold, ore and other minerals, according to an official who is familiar with the country’s planning and investment sector . “Of course, there are some impacts but they are not big problems,” he said. “There will be damage to local roads, but the investing companies are responsible for that. Some local people will have opportunities to work as daily workers.” Debt servicing Service payments on the country’s debt – the regular payments required by loan issuers that include interest and principal – could rise to 39 percent of GDP, the World Bank said. Laos’ currency, the kip, depreciated 29% against the Thai baht and 21% against the U.S. dollar last year. The main cause of the depreciation was a shortage of foreign currencies needed to pay down the debt and fund development projects, according to the World Bank. Similar to a sales tax, the value-added tax, or VAT, is added to the price of a product or service at each stage of production. Raising it from 7% to 10% and bringing in more revenue from tobacco and alcohol sales would help stabilize the government’s finances, Kremer said. The Lao government has also been cracking down on corruption, selling government assets and eliminating ineffective state enterprises. New import-export requirements An official from Laos’ national bank, the Bank of the Lao PDR, told Radio Free Asia that other measures to get inflation under control, such as mandating exchange rates and enforcing the law on foreign currency management, haven’t been working. “We’ve failed to control exchange rates, even after we shut down all money exchange outlets,” he said, requesting anonymity for safety reasons like other sources in this report. “But we can’t inspect everything and everywhere.” The Lao Ministry of Industry and Trade on Dec. 29 unveiled a new rule that requires all import-export companies to register with the government and to conduct all foreign transactions only through banks in Laos. “We want the companies to make payments through the banks in Laos so that more foreign currencies will be in the system,” an official from the Lao Ministry of Finance said. Most commercial banks in Laos aren’t able to sell foreign currencies to customers, according to an official of the Joint Development Bank’s Luang Prabang branch. “We only buy foreign currencies,” he said. “If customers really need foreign currencies, they can write a formal letter requesting to buy foreign currencies from any banks.” Because of the government enforcement on foreign currency, business people in Laos have turned to the black market for foreign currency, an employee of an import-export company that brings in goods from Thailand told RFA. Translated by Phouvong. Edited by Matt Reed.
World Bank urges Laos to raise VAT tax and taxes on tobacco, alcohol
Laos should raise its value-added tax rate and also increase taxes on cigarettes and alcohol as part of efforts to address high inflation and currency depreciation, the World Bank said. The government should also spend more money on health care and education to lay a foundation for future development, the bank’s representative in Laos, Alex Kremer, said in a report released last month. But the World Bank’s tax recommendations were mostly aimed at tackling Lao’s current troubled economy, which has struggled with rapidly rising prices, low foreign investment and public debt that could grow to 125 percent of GDP this year. The massive amount of debt, which reached US$18.7 billion at the end of 2022, has destabilized the country’s macroeconomy and slowed economic growth, Kremer said in the report. Just over half of the debt is owed to China, which helped Laos build the US$6 billion Lao-China High Speed Railway as part of its Belt and Road Initiative. Other major Chinese investments include roads and hydropower dams. Mining projects and local jobs Meanwhile, the government approved 192 concession projects last year worth almost US$5 billion in 2023, more than double the number from the previous year, according to the Ministry of Planning and Investment. Most of the investors are from China and Vietnam who are focused on the country’s mining, energy and agricultural sectors, the ministry said in a report. Projects approved by the government in 2022 were worth US$2.3 billion, according to the ministry. Most of the projects are in the mining sector, which could create more jobs for local people as companies seek to extract gold, ore and other minerals, according to an official who is familiar with the country’s planning and investment sector . “Of course, there are some impacts but they are not big problems,” he said. “There will be damage to local roads, but the investing companies are responsible for that. Some local people will have opportunities to work as daily workers.” Debt servicing Service payments on the country’s debt – the regular payments required by loan issuers that include interest and principal – could rise to 39 percent of GDP, the World Bank said. Laos’ currency, the kip, depreciated 29% against the Thai baht and 21% against the U.S. dollar last year. The main cause of the depreciation was a shortage of foreign currencies needed to pay down the debt and fund development projects, according to the World Bank. Similar to a sales tax, the value-added tax, or VAT, is added to the price of a product or service at each stage of production. Raising it from 7% to 10% and bringing in more revenue from tobacco and alcohol sales would help stabilize the government’s finances, Kremer said. The Lao government has also been cracking down on corruption, selling government assets and eliminating ineffective state enterprises. New import-export requirements An official from Laos’ national bank, the Bank of the Lao PDR, told Radio Free Asia that other measures to get inflation under control, such as mandating exchange rates and enforcing the law on foreign currency management, haven’t been working. “We’ve failed to control exchange rates, even after we shut down all money exchange outlets,” he said, requesting anonymity for safety reasons like other sources in this report. “But we can’t inspect everything and everywhere.” The Lao Ministry of Industry and Trade on Dec. 29 unveiled a new rule that requires all import-export companies to register with the government and to conduct all foreign transactions only through banks in Laos. “We want the companies to make payments through the banks in Laos so that more foreign currencies will be in the system,” an official from the Lao Ministry of Finance said. Most commercial banks in Laos aren’t able to sell foreign currencies to customers, according to an official of the Joint Development Bank’s Luang Prabang branch. “We only buy foreign currencies,” he said. “If customers really need foreign currencies, they can write a formal letter requesting to buy foreign currencies from any banks.” Because of the government enforcement on foreign currency, business people in Laos have turned to the black market for foreign currency, an employee of an import-export company that brings in goods from Thailand told RFA. Translated by Phouvong. Edited by Matt Reed.
Chinese ‘monster’ ship patrols near Vietnam’s oil fields
Chinese coast guard ship 5901, dubbed “The Monster” for its size, has been near Vietnam’s oil exploration blocks at Vanguard Bank in the South China Sea since early December, Radio Free Asia has learned. The CCG 5901 has “conducted an intrusive patrol of Vietnam’s oil and gas fields west of Vanguard Bank,” said Ray Powell, director of the U.S.-based SeaLight project, who was the first to spot the latest movement of the vessel in Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ). An EEZ gives a state exclusive access to the natural resources in the waters and in the seabed. Data obtained by RFA from tracking website MarineTraffic show the CCG 5901 (formerly known as Zhong Guoa Hai Jing 3901) has weaved an on-and-off pattern west of the Vanguard Bank, where Vietnam has some oil exploration projects, since at least Dec. 9, 2023. MarineTraffic uses AIS (automatic information system) signals that ships are obliged to transmit for safety reasons to track them. The Chinese ship has mostly been running “dark”, or not broadcasting AIS, since departing Sanya, Hainan, on Nov. 14, 2023, according to Powell. “This frequent practice violates the International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea, of which China is a signatory,” he added. Chinese coast guard ship 5901’s activities in Vietnam’s economic zone, Dec. 9, 2023- Jan. 7, 2024. (MarineTraffic) The last time the CCG 5901 turned on its AIS was on Jan. 7, 2024 at around 8:20 a.m. UTC. The ship was about 50 nautical miles (92.6km) southwest of Vanguard Bank. Several Vietnamese fishery patrol vessels were seen tailing the Chinese ship. The Chinese ship’s AIS was also activated on Dec. 9 and Dec. 29, 2023. The 12,000-ton CCG 5901 is double the size of a U.S. Navy Ticonderoga-class guided missile cruiser and is also bigger than an Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer. The coast guard ship, armed with heavy machine guns, also has a helicopter platform and a hangar large enough to accommodate larger rotary wing aircraft. Shared future Vanguard Bank, called Bai Tu Chinh in Vietnamese, is an important site of Vietnamese oil and gas development where Vietnam and some foreign partners carry out oil and gas exploration. It is also a known flashpoint between Vietnam and China – their law enforcement vessels confronted each other in July 2019 in one of the worst maritime standoffs in the South China Sea between them in recent years. Chinese coast guard vessels maintain a frequent presence near the Vanguard Bank (Wan’an Tan in Chinese) – a submerged formation that lies entirely within Vietnam’s EEZ. China is among the six parties that hold claims over the South China Sea but Beijing’s claim is by far the largest, covering almost 90% of the sea. “The [incursion] is not new but it happens right after Vietnam and China agreed to build a ‘Community with a Shared Future’ during Xi Jinping’s visit to Hanoi in December,” said Le Hong Hiep, a senior fellow at Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. The concept of a ‘Community with a Shared Future’ is China’s vision for international relations in the Chinese leader, Xi’s Jinping era. “That shows that essentially the Vietnam-China bilateral relations have not changed and it remains very difficult for the two countries to share a future should China continue pursuing its current claim over nearly-entire South China Sea,” Hiep told RFA. Another Vietnamese political analyst, Nguyen Khac Giang, said that the Chinese coast guard patrols “may be sending a message to not only Vietnam but the broader international community about China’s sovereignty in the South China Sea.” “On the other hand, China wants to maintain its pressure to interrupt Vietnam’s oil and activities in the area, as well as to push Hanoi to agree to a joint exploration plan with China in the same manner as what it achieved with the Philippines under the Duterte administration,” said Giang. In 2018, Manila and Beijing signed an agreement to explore oil and gas reserves in the South China Sea but the Philippines declared an end to it in June 2022, after President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. took power. The two countries, however, had agreed ‘to resume discussions on oil and gas development” after Marcos visited Beijing in December. Edited by Mike Firn and Elaine Chan.
‘We’ve been in this situation for a long time’
As Taiwan gears up for presidential and legislative elections next Saturday, voters on the streets of the democratic island’s capital Taipei say a Chinese invasion isn’t at the top of their list of concerns. Despite the Chinese Communist Party’s ongoing information wars, political infiltration and military incursions in the Taiwan Strait, some of the island’s 23 million people say that such worries aren’t at the forefront of their minds. As the country counts down the last days of a presidential race, voters must choose between incumbent ruling Democratic Progressive Party Vice President Lai Ching-te, who has a strong track record of standing up to China, against the more China-friendly opposition candidates – Hou Yu-ih for the Kuomintang and Ko Wen-je for the Taiwan People’s Party. But not all voters are following the threat from China as closely as they were. “It’s pretty pointless as a Taiwanese person to speculate on such matters, as we’ve been in this situation for a long time,” a voter who gave only the surname Lu told RFA Mandarin in a recent round of street interviews. Much of the early debate on the presidential campaign trail revolved around how candidates will handle the military threat from China. U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping walk together after a meeting during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders’ week in Woodside, California, on Nov. 15, 2023. Xi’s statement that there wasn’t a timetable for an invasion of Taiwan appears to have made voters feel more secure. (Brendan Smialowski/AFP) But Chinese President Xi Jinping’s comments to U.S. President Biden at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco in November, in which he denied there was a timetable for an invasion of Taiwan, appear to have made voters feel more secure. “We all know deep down that there can be no war,” a voter who gave only the surname Weng said. “I’m not worried,” said a voter surnamed Chou. “The Taiwanese people must have confidence in themselves, and make their country strong.” “There is no problem,” she said. “I feel confident.” Protecting sovereignty Xi hasn’t relinquished China’s territorial claim on the island, which split from the mainland in 1949 amid civil war and has never been ruled by the Chinese Communist Party, reiterating in a New Year address on Dec. 31 that “China will surely be reunified.” But a 31-year-old Taipei office worker who gave only the surname Hsieh said people are used to military threats and ramped-up rhetoric from Beijing at election time. “All of the parties want to protect Taiwan’s sovereignty,” Hsieh said, adding that he doesn’t see a vote for any of the candidates as a vote for war. Neither can any of them promise that China would definitely not invade if they won the election, he said, adding that low-level, city-level exchanges are likely to alleviate current tensions with China. A J-15 Chinese fighter jet takes off from the Shandong aircraft carrier during exercises around Taiwan, April 9, 2023. One Taipei office worker says people are accustomed to military threats from Beijing at election time. (An Ni/Xinhua via AP) Hsieh said the main advantage for the opposition parties is that China won’t talk to the DPP, which has dismissed Beijing’s claim on Taiwan and criticized its crackdown on dissent in Hong Kong. But he said the ruling party has a better track record when it comes to diplomacy, national defense and boosting Taiwan’s international status, not to mention the all-important relationship with Washington. ‘Stop interfering’ A 90-year-old voter who gave only the surname Kao said he is a staunch Kuomintang supporter, who nonetheless doesn’t want to see Chinese interference in Taiwan’s democracy. “I wish China would stop interfering in Taiwanese politics,” Kao said. “Taiwan is under a democratic system now, which is different from communism.” He said Taiwan has come a long way since the civil war between Mao Zedong and Chiang Kai-shek, and has spent the last few decades moving towards democracy, while China has been under Communist Party rule for more than 70 years. “Taiwan has gotten used to ruling itself democratically,” Kao said. A resident uses a magnifying glass as he reads a newspaper article calling Taiwan Vice President Lai Ching-te’s debate speech “Disaster words,” in Beijing, Wednesday, Jan. 3, 2023. A 90-year-old voter says she wishes “China would stop interfering in Taiwanese politics.” (Andy Wong/AP) A voter who gave only the surname Li said anti-communism has been deeply ingrained in Taiwanese society since the 1927-1949 civil war between the Kuomintang government of the 1911 Republic of China and communist insurgents. “They may fear our independence, but they didn’t build our country,” she said. “It’s better if they live their lives, we live ours, and we maintain peaceful cross-straits relations.” Housing, the economy Some told RFA Mandarin that they are more worried about the high price of housing than the threat of war. “The economy is still pretty important, and our leaders need to take active steps to deal with it,” Lu said. “The high cost of housing has led a lot of young people to lose confidence in the future,” he said, adding that he feels it’s time for a change after eight years of DPP rule. “If you are in power for too long, then issues of corruption are more likely,” Lu said. “This is a problem faced by all ruling parties in the world, not just in Taiwan.” Chou disagreed, saying the current leadership has done a good job, and that “Taiwan is very happy now,” and that she’s counting her blessings. Others said they were keen on Ko, because he appeared more down-to-earth, and to have concerns that were closer to their daily lives. “The stuff about China is kind of out of our reach, and I don’t pay much attention to it,” a voter surnamed Qu told RFA Mandarin. A Lai supporter surnamed Yang said the issue was much simpler for him. “We must elect people who are able to protect Taiwan,” he…
‘Kids start to ask themselves who they are and where they come from’
As families leave Hong Kong in droves in a bid to remove their kids from an education system that is increasingly steeped in Chinese Communist Party propaganda, they are building new lives in democratic societies like Taiwan and the United Kingdom. Many middle-class parents, asked why they chose to leave their home amid an ongoing crackdown on public dissent in Hong Kong, say it’s for the kids. Yet the challenges for children uprooted from friends, school, family and the city they once called home are far from insignificant. Three years ago, the Cheungs emigrated to Taiwan with their family of five, including Yuet, 13, Guji, 10 and Yiu, 8. According to a YouTube video made by Yuet at the time, they called out excitedly “We’re going through the gate now!” before giving their relatives a quick hug, and embarking on their new life more than 700 kilometers (400 miles) away. Around the same time, the Ho family were taking off for the United Kingdom, with 10-year-old Marcus and 9-year-old Max. “[My dad] just said we were going to the U.K.,” Marcus said in a recent interview with Radio Free Asia. “Actually, I don’t remember the details because we were very young at the time.” “I never thought much about leaving behind all my classmates and friends.” The Cheung children said they had some idea of why they were leaving, other than their parents wanting them to get a better education, and that there wasn’t much room for resistance to the idea. Language problems Coming from Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong, they also found it hard to communicate when they first got to Taiwan, where Mandarin Chinese is the medium of instruction in schools, and where Taiwanese – mutually unintelligible with Cantonese – is also widely spoken. “I didn’t understand Mandarin at all, or any other languages,” Guji said. “It was hard for me to communicate.” All three children were thrown into a system that taught them in a spoken language they didn’t know well, and required them to understand phonetic notation systems they had never been taught, leading them to lose marks in Chinese tests that should otherwise have been a cinch. “They all know this phonetic system because they learned it in kindergarten,” Yuet complained. “But we were in fifth and sixth grade and we didn’t know it, yet 20 marks out of every 100 were for phonetic spellings, so I got 70.” “There’s a bit less homework compared with Hong Kong, and the teachers are kinder and a bit less scary when they tell you off,” Guji said. “They’re not as strict.” The Ho family emigrated to the United Kingdom with 10-year-old Marcus and 9-year-old Max. (Shi Shi) The Cheungs also get to spend more time with their parents instead of being left with a domestic helper, as they were in Hong Kong. In the U.K., Marcus and Max have also had to work hard to overcome the language barrier. Marcus found leaving Hong Kong, where he was on the soccer, badminton and swimming teams and class president, quite a wrench. But there have been compensations, too. British schools have far less of a hothouse atmosphere than the education system in Hong Kong, and don’t expect kids to study all hours of the day and night just to keep up with requirements. That leaves more time and energy for doing the things they love, including plenty of energetic outdoor play. “The pace in school seemed very leisurely,” their father Simon told RFA Cantonese. “But after I looked at what he was doing, it turned out he wasn’t just playing around — he had written two pages.” “After they caught up in English, communication became easier, and they both like to play football, so it became a lot easier for them to communicate with their friends,” he said. “I think they’re fairly happy,” he said. “They’re not particularly unhappy.” Less pressure Asked if this was an accurate assessment, Marcus said he prefers life in the U.K., because there’s less pressure. Early years education expert Bonnie, who has also emigrated to Taiwan with her children, said children are adaptable and generally manage to settle, even after such a move. But they thrive in an atmosphere where they can talk about their feelings, and have a sense that the family is working together to overcome problems. “First, remember that you’re in this together, and second, give them time and give them space,” she advised. “I don’t mind letting my kids see my weakness, because that’s a very real feeling.” But ultimately, the parents are the ones responsible for emigration, not the kids, she said. “Children have to let go of the people and things they love most because of a decision made by their parents,” she said. Marcus, Max and the Cheung children aren’t alone. BNO visas So far 40,000 Hong Kong minors have been approved for the British National Overseas visa program, which offers a pathway to permanent residency and citizenship. Childhood education expert Bonnie, who has emigrated to Taiwan with her children, says children are adaptable and generally manage to settle, even after such a move. (Chunyin) Meanwhile, schools in Taiwan reported 129 new students from Hong Kong in the 2020 academic year, and 174 in the 2021 academic year, compared with less than 100 between 2015 and 2019. National Taiwan University sociologist Lu Ching-hu said parents who emigrate from Hong Kong were far more likely to oppose the changes in that city than those who stay behind. “There is a positive relationship between resistance and immigration,” said Lu, who has studied emigrating Hong Kong families. “If you are a parent, the relationship is even stronger.” U.K.-based Simon said that was a key factor in the Ho family’s decision to leave. “One of the reasons is that the teaching materials have been changed,” he said. This makes it harder for parents to help kids revise for tests in what has become an unfamiliar and hostile education system. “There are some…
