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Category: East Asia
Days after ceasefire, northern Myanmar sees more battles
Fighting erupted between the junta and allied ethnic groups in northern Myanmar just days after the two sides agreed a ceasefire, according to a statement released Wednesday by the Three Brotherhood Alliance. The alliance accused junta soldiers remaining in Shan state’s Kokang of firing grenades, the statement said. It added that junta troops launched the weapons from 30 meters (98 feet) away while allied Kokang resistance fighters were stationed near Kachin mountain. Despite the ceasefire reached during a third round of China-brokered peace talks in Kunming on Thursday night, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army retaliated and fighting began again around 4 p.m. on Tuesday. The alliance claimed junta troops fired back three times with heavy weapons before retreating. Despite the ceasefire, it’s possible that remaining junta troops separated from the rest of the army would open fire and attack, a military analyst who wished to remain anonymous for security reasons told Radio Free Asia on Wednesday. “The areas of Laukkai, Konkyan, and Yan Long Keng are very rough and it’s difficult to communicate there. It’s probably the remnants of the junta army that went into the forest during the [previous] battles,” he said. “I am not sure whether they know about the ceasefire after the [Kunming] talks.” The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, one of the groups making up the Three Brotherhood Alliance, captured Laukkai city in Kokang’s Self-Administered Zone when more than 1,000 junta troops surrendered on Jan. 4 Although the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army sent the surrendering troops back to Lashio, some who were separated from the main group may have initiated the attack, military observers said. Both the alliance and regime announced their public agreement to the ceasefire on Friday. According to the agreement, all parties involved would immediately cease fighting in their current locations. Starting Friday, the Three Brotherhood Alliance agreed to refrain from attacks on cities and junta camps. Regime forces similarly committed to halting airstrikes and other heavy weapons attacks. However, tensions still run high. When the Kachin Independence Army launched an attack on a Kutkai military base Sunday night, the junta Defense Service released a statement claiming the Three Brotherhood Alliance’s Ta’ang National Liberation Army was involved. Despite the ceasefire, the alliance is still preparing for future battles, claiming in a statement released Sunday that the regime is launching an offensive that began on Saturday. The statement added the junta is also responsible for airstrikes and heavy weapons attacks in Mongmit, Kutkai, and Kyaukme townships after the ceasefire agreement. RFA called Shan state junta spokesperson Khun Thein Maung and national junta spokesperson Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun for more information on these accusations, but calls went unanswered Wednesday. According to data compiled by RFA, in the more than two months since Operation 1027 launched on Oct. 27 to Friday’s ceasefire, the alliance captured 15 cities in northern Shan state. Translated by RFA Burmese. Edited by Mike Firn.
What role did China play in a rebel group’s victory in northern Myanmar?
When the Three Brotherhood Alliance of rebel groups in Myanmar started a campaign against junta forces in the northern part of the country they chose a slogan designed to win support from a fourth potential ally: China. “Wipe out the scammers, rescue our compatriots,” the group declared in the message. China, which shares a border with Kokang, a region in Shan state in northern Myanmar, had expressed increasing frustration with organized crime rings that had been allowed to operate in the area by junta-aligned forces. An estimated 120,000 people are being held in Myanmar against their will. Chinese nationals have both been trafficked by these groups and fleeced by them. The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army – which along with the Ta’ang National Liberation Army and the Arakan Army make up the Alliance – had tried and failed twice before to retake the region. This time, however, Kokang’s capital of Laukkai fell into rebel hands on Jan. 4. Since then, China has played a clear role in mediating a truce between the two sides. But the initial success of the rebel campaign has led analysts to speculate that it had, in fact, received Chinese backing. China’s leaders may have sought to kill “two birds with one stone,” according to Deng Yuwen, a political commentator and former journalist – strengthening China’s position in the region while removing the destabilizing threat presented by the scam compounds. “The Chinese government can use the scamming operations as a way to secretly support local forces … and control the area that way,” Deng said. “They solve the scamming problem and cultivate bold agents of the Chinese state at the same time,” he said, meaning China believes the new leaders of Kokang will better reflect its interests. Chinese police arrest Chinese nationals allegedly involved in online scamming operations in Myanmar, Dec. 10, 2023. (Kokang officials) A ‘king’ and a coup Kokang has long been in China’s orbit, and many of its residents are ethnically Chinese. In the mid-20th century, Kokang served as a base for Myanmar communists. With the collapse of the Communist Party of Burma in 1989, local warlord Peng Jiasheng – whose nickname was “the king of Kokang” – switched his allegiance to the junta. The military granted the region autonomy and allowed Peng to keep his military presence in the area, though China remained an important patron. In 2009, Peng was ousted in a coup led by his second-in-command, Bai Suocheng, who consolidated his family’s control over the state. Bai allowed government troops to be stationed in Kokang for the first time while residents were granted Myanmar nationality. Bai offered sanctuary to criminal groups in return for huge payouts that also benefited the junta. Eventually, massive, organized scam operations began to thrive in Kokang. China pushes back Last year, the Chinese government appeared fed up. In August, it took part in a joint operation with Myanmar and Thailand targeting the scam centers. Over the intervening months, more than 40,000 Chinese nationals were arrested in Shan state for involvement with online scams, according to data collected by RFA. A number of powerful Kokang business people were arrested at a trade fair in China in October, and in November, Beijing issued arrest warrants for a well-connected Kokang politician and three family members on allegations of masterminding an online scam ring. China’s Ministry of Public Security issued arrest warrants for 10 people, including the former chairman of the Kokang self-administered region, Bai Suocheng [top row, first left], his son Bai Yingcang [top row, second left] and his daughter Bai Yinglan [top row, third left]. (The Kokang) On Dec. 10, China’s Ministry of Public Security put out another wanted list, naming 10 individuals in connection with the scams, including Bai Suocheng, his grown children and a few junta officials. The move not only showed Beijing’s growing impatience with Myanmar’s handling of the scam rings, but signaled that China favored leaders in Kokang more closely aligned with its national interests. The prince’s plans After he had been dethroned as the king of Kokang, Peng Jiasheng resurfaced as the leader of the MNDAA, fighting Myanmar forces on occasion without significant success. When he died in 2022, his son, Peng Denren, took over and immediately made plans to reclaim control of his father’s lost territory. The Alliance launched “Operation 1027” – so-called for the on Oct. 27, 2023, date – offensive against Myanmar military strongholds in northern Myanmar. Even though the Alliance remained outnumbered by government troops, the rebel forces scored several significant victories early on. Its soldiers have since seized more than 300 military bases, around a dozen towns, and won control of several key trade routes with the neighboring Chinese province of Yunnan. Members of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army walk past a Myanmar military base after seizing it during clashes near Laukkaing township in Myanmar’s northern Shan state, Oct. 28, 2023. (Kokang Information Network/AFP) Suspicion over ‘foreign’ experts Myanmar’s junta chief in November claimed that the ethnic-minority armed groups were getting outside assistance, according to a report by Agence France-Presse. He said the rebels had been using “drones with advanced technology” to attack junta positions and were aided by “foreign drone experts,” although he didn’t specify which country they came from. Li Jiawen, a spokesman for the MNDAA, denied the offensive was aided by the Chinese. “The situation we have today is the result of nearly 70 years of tyranny by the junta,” Li said. Even China’s tacit approval of the operation is important, Yun Sun, the director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank, said in an interview with RFA. “The biggest support that China has lended to this organization is to not stop them,” she said. Rebel forces were able to retreat over the border to avoid junta artillery barrages. China allowed the flow of money and goods in Shan state that helped to sustain the rebels to continue, Sun said. And there was likely a psychological…
Chinese warships leave Cambodia’s Ream naval base
Two Chinese warships leading a training program for the Cambodian Navy since early December have left the Ream naval base, satellite imagery shows. Images captured on Jan. 15 and provided by the U.S. earth imaging company Planet Labs show an empty berth at the new pier, where the two People’s Liberation Army (PLA) corvettes were docked for several weeks. The ships were still seen as of Jan. 13, 2024. The new pier at Ream Naval Base on Jan. 13, 2024 (left) with two vessels and on Jan. 15 without any vessel. (RFA via Planet Labs) Radio Free Asia reported on Dec. 5, 2023 about the arrival of the PLA vessels – the first foreign warships to gain access to the new China-funded facility with a deep-draft pier that can accommodate aircraft carriers. A U.S. State Department spokesperson said at that time that Washington had “serious concerns” about China’s plans for exclusive control over portions of Ream Naval Base, and was watching closely. The Chinese ships provided on-ship and in-port training to Cambodian navy staff, according to the Ream naval base’s social media. They may have also taken part in confidence-building activities with the local navy and population, according to Carl Schuster, a retired U.S. Navy captain and former director of operations at the U.S. Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center. “All port visits have a political element,” Schuster told RFA, “Allowing ship tours to visitors from the town, working with local naval forces and meeting with local officials often are more important than the training activities.” People-to People Exchange Year The ships’ departure took place as Cambodia and China officially launched a new campaign to boost bilateral ties and tourism called “The 2024 Cambodia-China People-to-People Exchange Year.” Chinese and Cambodian media reported that a launching ceremony was held last Saturday in Siem Reap. Former Defense Minister Tea Banh, now a member of the Supreme Privy Council to King Sihamoni, and Li Shulei, a member of the Political Bureau of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee, presided over the event. Tea Banh said that the campaign “will inject fresh momentum into building a high-quality, high-level and high-standard Cambodia-China community with a shared future in the new era,” according to Xinhua news agency. Cambodian dancers at the launch ceremony of the 2024 Cambodia-China People-to-People Exchange Year on Jan. 13, 2024. (Tea Banh’s Facebook) Cambodia received 2.36 million Chinese tourists in 2019, accounting for 35.7% of total international tourist arrivals. China and Cambodia have seen a rapid development of their relationship, with Beijing providing Phnom Penh with much needed financial assistance. Siem Reap is where a new Chinese-financed airport began operations in October. The airport has a capacity of 7 million passengers a year and serves as a gateway to Cambodia’s most important tourist destination – the Angkor Temple complex. The Siem Reap-Angkor International Airport was funded by a Chinese company under Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative development plan. Another big airport near the capital Phnom Penh is also being financed and developed by China. More than 40% of Cambodia’s US$10 billion in foreign debt is owed to China, according to the Cambodian Ministry of Economy and Finance. For its part, Phnom Penh has become one of Beijing’s vocal supporters. After the weekend’s elections in Taiwan, Cambodia immediately “reaffirmed its strong support for the One-China policy.” “In light of the recent developments in Taiwan, the Ministry reiterates Cambodia’s resolute adherence to the One China policy, recognising the People’s Republic of China as the sole legitimate authority representing the entirety of China,” Foreign ministry’s spokesman An Sokhoeun was quoted as saying by local media. Edited by Mike Firn and Taejun Kang.
Time is not on Myanmar junta’s side, almost 3 years after coup
In his televised New Year’s address to the country, Myanmar’s junta leader Min Aung Hlaing vowed to prioritize economic growth in 2024, apportioning all the blame for the country’s sharp economic contraction on the opposition his coup ousted almost three years ago. Min Aung Hlaing made no mention of the military’s setbacks since the Three Brotherhood Alliance of ethnic armies in northern Myanmar launched their offensive on October 27, 2023. And while the losses, which include over 30 towns and the surrender of over 3,000 troops are real, the continued economic crisis remains the junta’s single largest vulnerability. Smoke rises from a burning Myanmar military compound amid clashes with armed group Ta’ang National Liberation Army in northern Shan State, Dec. 13, 2023. (AFP Photo) The economy has shrunk by 10-12 percent since the Feb. 1, 2021 coup that deposed the National League For Democracy-led government. In a recent report, the World Bank predicted the country would only see 1% growth in 2024, given the “broad-based slowdown across productive sectors including agriculture, manufacturing, and trade.” Over half the population is living beneath the poverty line, while the World Bank found that 40% of surveyed families saw a decline in income in 2023 compared to 2022. The kyat currency has lost half of its value since the coup and it now appears that the State Administrative Council (SAC), as the junta is formally known, has given up any hope of controlling it. Forex woes In early December 2023, the Central Bank of Myanmar announced that it would no longer fix the exchange rate, allowing the currency to trade at market prices. This was a tacit acknowledgement that the gap between the official rate of 2,100 kyat per U.S. dollar and black market rate of 3,500 kyat per greenback was too large to ignore, and that the regime no longer had foreign exchange reserves to prop up the declining kyat. The shortage of dollars also portends a further energy crisis. Electric black- and brown-outs have been common throughout the country, even in Naypyidaw. And shortages of gasoline and diesel increased in late-2023. Fighters of Ta’ang National Liberation Army search a building after running over a compound belonging to Myanmar junta military in Shan State, Dec. 12, 2023. (AFP Photo) The SAC had subsidized energy imports by making dollars available to politically-connected energy importers at below market rates in order to ensure a steady supply of fuel. The junta no longer can afford that. In late December, there were reports of tankers refusing to unload in Yangon’s Thaliwa port until they were paid, indicating a dire shortage of dollars. The regime has been encouraging border trade with China and Thailand, which is conducted in Chinese yuan or Thai baht. But the loss of key border areas is hampering that. While SAC forces still control the border city of Muse, which handles almost 90% of border trade with China, the Three Brotherhood Alliance now controls the Mile 105 Trade Zone as well as a host of smaller border crossings, such as Chin Shwe Haw. Muse and Lashio are the only towns in northern Shan State that are still under junta control. Ethnic armies on the march The Three Brotherhood Alliance – Arakan Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and Ta’ang National Liberation Army – now controls almost all towns along highways 3 and 34, to the border. Ta’ang National Liberation Army forces captured a military camp as far west as Nawnghkio, which is only 15 miles from Pyin Oo Lwin, home of the Defense Services Academy, though the Air Force has intensified airstrikes to retake the town. Among advances by other ethnic armies, Karenni forces now control much of the state including the trade routes to Mae Hong Son in Thailand. The Karen National Union has been consolidating its position along the Thai border. Fuel prices, delays at the border and increased transportation costs resulted in some $500 million in lost border trade in the two months following the launch of Operation 1027 in northern Shan State. Border trade accounts for 40% of exports and 21% of imports. Myanmar Now, citing Commerce Ministry figures, found that exports to Thailand and China in the last 9 months of 2023 fell by $178 and $157 million, respectively. Residents of an improvised neighborhood gather to receive rice distributed by the World Food on the outskirts of Yangon, May 21, 2021. Over half the population in Myanmar live beneath the poverty line. (AFP Photo) Sector after sector have been hit hard. In late November, the SAC stopped supplying fuel to industrial estates, calling on factory owners to negotiate their own energy purchases. In the key garment sector, 271 of 817 factories (33%) have shut down since the coup – due to shortages of foreign exchange to pay for raw materials, high energy prices, and the loss contracts and foreign investor unease with the human rights situation. Even Chinese-owned firms are closing. For those still employed, wages are stagnant and being eaten up by inflation, which remains high at 29%. Prices of staples, including rice, eggs, and cooking oil, have soared. The junta refused to increase the minimum wage for workers, instead offering a 1,000-kyat (US$0.20) daily allowance. The current minimum wage was set in 2018. Myanmar Kyat notes are seen in a donation coffer at a Buddhist pagoda in Yangon, April 17, 2017. (Roberto Schmidt/AFP) The agriculture sector has been impacted by changing weather patterns and shortages of imported fertilizers and pesticides. While the cost of production has soared for farmers, in mid-September 2023, the junta imposed price ceilings on wholesale rice trade to stabilize prices for urban consumers. U.S.-imposed sanctions on the Myanma Investment and Commercial Bank and Myanmar Foreign Trade Bank, which were responsible for most of the U.S. dollar transactions, have crippled foreign trade. Singapore’s United Overseas Bank has been quietly closing Myanmar-linked accounts, further hampering their international transactions. In December 2023, three Myanmar nationals, including Kyaw Min Oo, the CEO of Sky Aviator, were…
Counting underway in Taiwan’s pivotal presidential election
Voting has ended and counting is underway in Taiwan’s presidential election, a ballot that will shape its future relationship with China and stance on independence and stability. Polls opened at 8:00 a.m. at nearly 18,000 locations, from the island’s south to its capital Taipei and closed at 4 p.m with votes immediately being counted and reported to the election authorities soon after. The result for Saturday’s election should be clear by late evening when the losers concede and the winner gives a victory speech. At stake is the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait between the Chinese mainland and the self-governed island, claimed by Beijing as its own, but equally important are bread-and-butter issues. Key candidates in the presidential race are: Vice President Lai Ching-te of the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Hou Yu-ih of the Beijing-favored Kuomintang (KMT) and Ko Wen-je of Taiwan’s People’s Party (TPP). Former physician and mayor of Tainan, Lai, known for his support of Taiwan independence, aims to continue President Tsai’s policies of maintaining Taiwan’s de facto independence amidst heightened tensions with Beijing. Facing challenges like slow wage growth and high housing costs, Lai’s DPP, once an opposition to the KMT’s rule, now faces criticisms of being the establishment. “Today is a glorious day, great weather to vote. I encourage everyone to go vote, demonstrate the vigor of Taiwanese democracy,” said Lai after casting his vote in his hometown of Tainan. “Let Taiwan continue to move forward.” Hou from the KMT, a former police officer and mayor of New Taipei City, represents a “Taiwanese flavor” in politics, which his party believes could help attract a broader voter base beyond its traditional supporters; he advocates for dialogue with Beijing under the “1992 consensus” to reduce cross-strait tensions. However, the viability of this consensus is in question since Chinese President Xi Jinping’s 2019 interpretation aligned it with a stringent “one China principle,” echoing the increasingly restrictive model seen in Hong Kong. “I am very happy to see people voluntarily come out to vote early in the morning. This demonstrates a very important voting behavior of Taiwanese democracy in the electoral process – where democracy is used to select the most ideal president, vice president and legislators,” said Hou after voting in New Taipei City. “More importantly, no matter how chaotic the election process is, everyone must unite after the election.” Ko, a former surgeon turned politician, founded the TPP four years ago, focusing on domestic issues like energy and housing, after a surprising victory in Taipei’s mayoral race as an independent. While the TPP isn’t strong enough to dominate the legislature, Ko aims to position it as a parliamentary power broker, advocating for a coalition with the KMT and offering a “third choice” to voters, with policies aligning more closely with the KMT’s stance on China. Asked by journalists how he felt after casting his ballot in Taipei, Ko said:”Keep a normal mind, finish what one needs to finish every day, and plan for the next stage after each is completed.” An official of a polling station holds up a ballot slip, as vote counting for the presidential elections commences, at a high school in New Taipei City on January 13, 2024. (Sam Yeh / AFP) Just hours before the polls got underway China continued to assert its presence in the region. Taiwan’s defense ministry said eight People’s Liberation Army (PLA) aircraft and six PLA Navy vessels were detected around the island as of 6 a.m. local time, with one aircraft entering Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone. Some voters may be dissuaded from supporting independence-leaning candidates by China’s military threats, but the United States has pledged support for whichever government forms. A White House official said on Wednesday that U.S. President Joe Biden will send an “unofficial” delegation of former officials to Taiwan following the presidential elections. Aside from tensions with China, the Taiwan election is also predominantly determined by domestic concerns. In November 2023, Taiwan’s statistics bureau reported its GDP growth forecast as 1.42%, the lowest since 2008. Taiwan is grappling with soaring housing prices, ranked among the highest globally, while its wage levels were among the lowest compared to other developed economies, according to March figures. The outcome of the elections will also impact the security and economy of neighboring countries like Japan and South Korea. Taro Aso, the former Prime Minister of Japan, recently warned that China’s territorial claims on Taiwan could lead to a dire crisis for Japan, necessitating Tokyo’s intervention in the Taiwan Strait during any conflict to protect its citizens. Additionally, a Bloomberg Economics report released on Tuesday indicated that South Korea’s GDP would face the second-largest drop, after Taiwan, if a war were to break out between China and the democratic island. A woman casts her vote in the presidential election at a polling station in a temple in New Taipei City on Jan. 13, 2024. (Alastair Pike/AFP) Experts who spoke to Radio Free Asia said they believe maintaining the status quo is considered the safest approach regardless of the outcome of the elections. Despite Beijing’s ongoing threats to use force to reclaim Taiwan, there’s little belief in an immediate invasion by China, they said, citing several factors at play: Taiwan’s determination to maintain its freedom and identity, the relations between Washington and Beijing, and the U.S.’s commitment to protecting Taiwan’s interests. Above all, the economic cost of a conflict could be devastating for the region and the world. For one, Taiwan is the leading global producer of the most advanced semiconductors. Beyond the presidential and vice presidential elections, there are also 113 legislative seats up for grabs. More than 83% of the total population, or approximately 19.55 million voters, are eligible to cast their ballot. In 2020, DPP President Tsai Ing-wen and her running mate Lai won over 8.17 million votes, or 57.13% of the total, to defeat Han Kuo-yu and Chang San-cheng of the KMT. Additionally, a majority of seats was gained by the DPP in the…
Experts denounce trips to Xinjiang as ‘genocide tourism’
The Chinese government has thrown open the door for tourists to Xinjiang. Or at least those it deems worthy of an invite. While officials previously let in diplomats, journalists and those considered “friends of China,” they are now presenting the restive far-western region as a tourist destination of sorts in a bid to remove some of the tarnish from China’s image as a human rights violator in the far-western region in the eyes of the international community. Nearly 400 delegations and groups consisting of more than 4,300 people from various countries and international organizations visited the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region in 2023, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said at a press conference on Jan. 5. Visitors included government officials, diplomats, religious figures, experts, scholars, and journalists as well as ordinary travelers, he said. Unlike travel in the rest of China, however, visits remain by invitation only and visitors are led on government-sponsored tours. These include trips to mosques and heritage sites “to see how Xinjiang’s traditional culture is protected,” Wang said. “They went to local factories, businesses and farms to learn about Xinjiang’s production and development, and visited ordinary households where they saw the happy life of people of various ethnic groups.” “Seeing is believing,” he said. “People are not blind to the truth. For certain countries, they are comfortable telling lies about genocide and forced labor in Xinjiang…. Xinjiang will keep its door open to the world.” Foreign envoys visit an exhibition on Xinjiang’s anti-terrorism and de-radicalization work in Urumqi, capital of northwestern China’s Xinjiang region, Aug. 4, 2023. (Zhao Chenjie/Xinhua via Getty Images) The move comes as China gets ready for its fourth Universal Periodic Review, or UPR — a Human Rights Council mechanism that calls for each U.N. member state to undergo a peer review of its human rights records every 4.5 years. The review is scheduled to be held in Geneva, Switzerland, on Jan. 23. Authorities have tightly controlled who enters Xinjiang, where harsh repression of Uyghurs and other Muslims in recent years has amounted to genocide and crimes against humanity, according to the United States, the United Nations, the parliaments of other Western countries and human rights groups. Authorities in Xinjiang have detained an estimated 1.8 million Uyghurs and other Turkic Muslims, destroyed thousands of mosques and banned the Uyghur language in schools and government offices. China has said that the “re-education camps” have been closed and has denied any policy to erase Uyghur culture. A recent CBS documentary on China’s “rebranding” effort shows surveillance cameras and facial recognition devices monitoring Uyghurs. The name of the ancient town of Kashgar appears in Chinese as “Kashi” on signs and billboards, while the 15th-century Id Kah Mosque — closed to local Muslims since 2016 — has been transformed into a tourist attraction. Through the scripted travel junkets, the Chinese government is spreading a narrative that Uyghurs live happy lives to cover up Beijing’s severe human rights violations in Xinjiang, experts on the region said. Foreign visitors, in turn, have perpetuated the narrative through photos and posts on their social media accounts. Criticism from rights groups The dissemination of propaganda and China’s efforts to enhance the image of Xinjiang have sparked criticism from human rights groups. Claudia Bennett, a legal and program officer at Human Rights Foundation, said the orchestrated visits conceal the harsh realities of forced family separations, arbitrary detentions of millions in concentration or forced labor camps, and thousands of Uyghurs living in exile and forcibly rendered stateless. “In a strategic effort to legitimize its colonization of the Uyghur region, the Chinese Communist Party carefully organizes propagandist visits for diplomats, journalists and religious scholars,” she told Radio Free Asia. “These tours are designed to whitewash the CCP’s gross human rights violations.” The U.S.-based Uyghur Human Rights Foundation, or UHRP, called the visits “genocide tourism” in a report issued last Aug. 30, saying that they help China conceal genocide and crimes against humanity occurring in Xinjiang. Dolkun Isa, president of the World Uyghur Congress, took the criticism of the junkets a step further. “Collaborating with China’s propaganda equates to complicity in genocide – a grave crime,” he said. “Humanity will not forget, and the Uyghur nation will not forget. Those involved will be held accountable before history.” Hector Dorbecker, counselor for economic-commercial and financial affairs at the Embassy of Mexico in Beijing, tries to play dutar, a long-necked two-stringed lute, in Jiayi village of Xinhe county in northwestern China’s Xinjiang region, Aug. 2, 2023. (Zhao Chenjie/Xinhua via Getty Images) Travel and excursion propaganda to portray life in Xinjiang as normal is part of “Beijing’s current strategy,” explained Adrian Zenz, an expert on China’s policies in Xinjiang. “They are showing Uyghurs and Uyghur culture, but not real and free people or culture, but a hollowed out version, a mummified version, like a CCP museum,” said Zenz, director of China studies at the U.S.-based Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation. With the U.N.’s UPR session on the horizon, there can be little doubt that Beijing is touting the visits as a way to counter criticism of its policies in Xinjiang, said Sophie Richardson, former China director at Human Rights Watch. The main problem with the UPR, however, is that there are no penalties for failing to comply or to correct abuses, Richardson added. “Beijing has proven just how easy it is to manipulate the process to keep independent civil society, both inside and outside China, out of the process … and to submit a national report that is breathtakingly dishonest in its claims to upholding human rights.” Translated by RFA Uyghur. Edited by Roseanne Gerin and Abby Seiff.
Ex-junta official says Shan state ceasefire is ‘not sustainable’
Junta officials and a resistance alliance agreed to a temporary ceasefire during talks in China, a person attending the meeting told Radio Free Asia on Friday morning. The Three Brotherhood Alliance and regime representatives reached the decision during peace talks in China’s Kunming on Thursday. The agreement was signed into effect at 10 p.m., the anonymous source said, asking RFA not to disclose his name because he was not authorized to talk to the media. As a result of the discussion, the allied Arakan Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and Ta’ang National Liberation Army agreed to cease capturing cities and military camps in northern Shan state. Junta officials agreed not to instigate aerial attacks and operate heavy weaponry. China’s border with Myanmar would be re-opened after renegotiation among the three northern alliances, junta officials and China when the area is more stable, the meeting attendee said. This decision is a result of Chinese pressure and would not be sustainable in the long run, said an ex-military official, who asked RFA to protect his identity for safety reasons. “This ceasefire is due to pressure from China. China definitely put pressure on both sides, because Yunnan’s industrial products are affected. Because of this, a ceasefire agreement was reached before the resolution was clear,” he said. “This halt is a breather for the junta council. The Three Brotherhood Alliance also breathed a sigh of relief. And China also breathes a sigh of relief. But I want to say that this is not a long-term, stable situation.” Neither party could deny it was a result of Chinese pressure, said Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a political and military analyst based in China. “There are pros and cons. Some say this could set back the Spring Revolution. I don’t think so. As for the northern group, they still need to rest in order to prepare their armies in peace, and the ceasefire is temporary,” she told RFA. “It’s a good thing to stop temporarily and politically discuss. They also need to be free to discuss. There may be some consideration for what China wants [from the Three Brotherhood Alliance] when China intervenes.” Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning voiced Beijing’s support for the ceasefire at a regular news conference Friday. “China hopes the relevant parties in Myanmar can conscientiously implement the agreement, exercise maximum restraint toward each other and solve the issues through dialogue and consultations,” she said, adding that the ceasefire was also in China’s interests. “The two sides promised not to undermine the safety of Chinese people living in the border area and Chinese projects and personnel in Myanmar,” she said. A previously reported cease-fire was not honored by either side. The result of this discussion is only for northern Shan state and would not apply to Rakhine state, added the meeting attendee. The Arakan Army’s attacks have also impacted Chinese development projects in Rakhine. On Monday morning, the Arakan Army launched an offensive on a junta naval base in a Chinese special economic zone. Representatives from the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, Arakan Army, and Ta’ang Liberation Army attended the meeting, said the anonymous source. Lt. Gen. Min Naing and five members from the military council also attended, he added, as well as China’s special representative Deng Xin Jun. Since Operation 1027 launched on October 27, 2023, 15 out of 22 townships in northern Shan state have been occupied by northern resistance groups, according to data compiled by RFA. Combined troops from Karenni National Defense Force, People’s Liberation Army, Bamar People’s Liberation Army have captured six cities across Shan state, including Chinshwehaw, Kunlong and Hsenwi. The United Wa State Army has since captured Hopang and Pan Lon cities. The Ta’ang Liberation Army also seized Namhsan and Manton, in addition to other cities in Ta’ang Self-Administered Zone, including Namhkam, Mongngawt, and Namtu cities. Translated by RFA Burmese. Edited by Mike Firn.
Kokang handover of towns to Wa rebels seen as boon to Myanmar resistance
The handover to ethnic Wa fighters of two towns seized from the military by Kokang rebels last week is likely part of a bid to elicit their support in the fight against the junta and deals a blow to the regime’s hold on power in northern Myanmar, observers said Thursday. On Jan. 4, fighters with the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, or MNDAA, stormed the junta’s Kokang regional command center in Laukkaing township – the largest base in northern Shan state near the Chinese border – prompting soldiers in the facility to lay down their arms, despite the military’s attempt to defend the facility from afar with artillery fire and airstrikes. A day later, the MNDAA seized the towns of Pang Long and Hopang from the military in the Wa Self-Administered Region’s Hopang township, located around 6.5 kilometers (4 miles) away from Laukkaing’s town of Chinshwehaw. Under MNDAA protection, armed troops with the United Wa State Army, or UWSA, later entered the townships as some 700 junta troops and their family members retreated to the Wa region town of Lashio. A military analyst, who spoke to RFA Burmese on condition of anonymity due to security reasons, noted that the MNDAA and UWSA are former allies and said the MNDAA made the handover to ensure relations between the two groups remain on good terms. “[The MNDAA] will not maintain friendship with the Wa if [they] establish an administrative system by themselves [in Hopang and Pang Long] as they did in Chinshwehaw and [nearby] Kunlong after seizing those towns,” the analyst said. Hopang and Pang Long are part of an area formerly controlled by the UWSA that was handed over to the then-military regime, the State Law and Order Restoration Council, as part of a negotiated ceasefire agreement. “So it was expected that the [MNDAA] would attack Hopang and Pang Long and hand them to the Wa, even though the Wa were not involved in the fight to occupy them,” the analyst said. The MNDAA had taken control of Chinshwehaw after the start of Operation 1027, an offensive it launched along with the Ta’ang National Liberation Army and the Arakan Army as part of the so-called Three Brotherhood Alliance of ethnic armies in late October that has since reportedly captured 10 townships in northern Shan state and seized control of more than 200 junta camps. Wa assumes control On Wednesday, the MNDAA handed over Pang Long and Hopang to the UWSA, which controls territory connected to the two townships, in a formal ceremony, according to residents and UWSA officials. The UWSA is Myanmar’s largest ethnic army, and in November had vowed to remain neutral amid Operation 1027. Myint Than, a resident of Hopang, told RFA that the UWSA “greeted locals cordially” during the handover and noted that while junta troops and their families had left, “it is not true that the [ethnic majority] Bamars were driven out.” “The Bamars have been operating clothing stores, all of which have been allowed to reopen,” she said. “It is likely that those who have joined the [anti-junta] Civil Disobedience Movement [boycotting state jobs under the military regime] will be re-employed.” The handover ceremony for the Myanmar towns of Hopang and Panglong on Jan. 10, 2024 drew a crowd. (Citizen journalist) The 2008 constitution designated the six townships of Hopang, Mongmao, Pangwaun, Narphan, Matman, and Pangsang/Pangkham of northeastern Shan state as the Wa Self-Administered Region. With the handover of Hopang township, the junta only controls Matman township, while the UWSA now controls the remaining five townships. Residents told RFA that the UWSA informed them they will be issued residential permits, which will allow them to travel freely within the entire Wa region. Handover ‘a positive’ for resistance A former military officer, who also declined to be named for fear of reprisal, said the junta is likely incensed by the handover, as Pang Long was home to a military base and a key part of its territory in northern Shan state. “To be frank, [the UWSA] managed to outwit them by taking those towns without a fight,” the officer said. “The military will not be pleased. The Wa have broken the status quo by taking these two towns.” Hla Kyaw Zaw, a political and military observer based in China, said that the UWSA’s occupation of Hopang and Pang Long would be good for the resistance. “I see the gradual unity of ethnic groups as a positive [for anti-junta forces],” she said. “The Wa focus on the interests of their own people and the MNDAA has said that its main goal is to regain the [ethnic] Kokang region and form a special region again. They realize that it would be impossible for them to do so only by freeing their own people.” “Since they understand that the whole country needs to be free from the military dictatorship, I believe they will assist the resistance, which will benefit the revolution,” she added. Translated by Htin Aung Kyaw. Edited by Joshua Lipes and Malcolm Foster.
China helps world achieve record renewable energy growth
China’s “extraordinary” acceleration in renewable energy capacity propelled 2023 to witness the fastest global growth rate in over twenty years, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a new report on Thursday. The world’s annual additions to renewable electricity generation capacity soared by nearly 50%, reaching approximately 510 gigawatts (GW) – marking the 22nd consecutive year of setting new records in renewable capacity growth, the Paris-based IEA said in its Renewables 2023 report. According to the report, China’s deployment of solar PV (photovoltaic) in 2023 increased by 116%, matching the global total of 2022, while its wind power installations increased by 66% compared to the previous year. The report predicted that the next five years will see the fastest growth yet, but warned the lack of financing for emerging and developing economies is a vital issue. The current expansion of renewable power has made the COP28 goal of tripling global capacity to at least 11,000 GW by 2030, which more than 130 governments agreed to during the climate change conference last month in Dubai. China, India, and Indonesia did not join the pledge due to its accompanying anti-coal stance and the more demanding goal of doubling the average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements to 4%. “Onshore wind and solar PV are cheaper today than new fossil fuel plants almost everywhere and cheaper than existing fossil fuel plants in most countries,” IEA’s executive director Fatih Birol said. “For me, the most important challenge for the international community is rapidly scaling up financing and deployment of renewables in most emerging and developing economies, many of which are being left behind in the new energy economy.” “Success in meeting the tripling goal will hinge on this.” This infographic shows renewable electricity capacity growth by country/region between 2005 and 2028. (IEA) Under existing policies and market conditions, global renewable power capacity is expected to grow to 7,300 GW by 2028, with renewables overtaking coal to become the largest source of global electricity generation by early 2025, according to IEA projection. The growth trajectory is about 2.5 times its current level, which is still short of the tripling goal by 2030. Asia-Pacific progress report The world’s second-biggest economy, China, has a renewable energy capacity to triple the previous five years’ increase of 2,000 GW in the next five years, making up 56% of the global increase, IEA said. From 2023 to 2028, China will add almost four times more renewable capacity than the European Union and five times more than the US, the second and third-largest growth market. According to IEA’s forecast, the world’s renewables “powerhouse” is expected to reach its national 2030 target for wind and solar PV installations – 1,200 GW – this year, six years ahead of schedule. By 2028, almost half of China’s electricity generation will come from renewable energy sources. A solar farm operates next to Donggou village near Shijiazhuang city in northern China’s Hebei province, Nov. 10, 2023. (Ng Han Guan/AP) Apart from China, the rest of Asia will see renewable capacity grow by 430 GW by 2028, a 73% increase from 2022 levels, with India driving half of the regional growth and ASEAN adding 14%. India is projected to add 205 GW by 2028, doubling its 2022 capacity, and is poised to become the third-largest global market for renewables. The 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is expected to increase renewable capacity by a combined 63 GW by 2028, IEA said. Southeast Asia has the potential to offer one of the highest global renewable growth possibilities, the IEA said, but would require “more ambitious renewable energy targets and prompt implementation of long-term, transparent, and competitive support policies.” In major Southeast Asian economies such as Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand, regulations and policy support gaps hinder renewable energy growth and project development. The overcapacity of young, contract-bound fossil fuel power plants, particularly coal and gas, impedes the transition to renewable energy by financially disincentivizing utilities from investing in new renewable projects. Vietnam’s rapid solar PV boom, with installations reaching 20 GW in 2019-2020, has led to challenges in integration, with a pressing need for more investment in transmission and distribution infrastructure. Last year, Vietnam and Indonesia signed into the Just Energy Transition Programme in a shift towards reassessing and potentially retiring older conventional plants, aided by international financial support to alleviate government budget pressures. Edited by Mike Firn and Taejun Kang.
World Bank urges Laos to raise VAT tax and taxes on tobacco, alcohol
Laos should raise its value-added tax rate and also increase taxes on cigarettes and alcohol as part of efforts to address high inflation and currency depreciation, the World Bank said. The government should also spend more money on health care and education to lay a foundation for future development, the bank’s representative in Laos, Alex Kremer, said in a report released last month. But the World Bank’s tax recommendations were mostly aimed at tackling Lao’s current troubled economy, which has struggled with rapidly rising prices, low foreign investment and public debt that could grow to 125 percent of GDP this year. The massive amount of debt, which reached US$18.7 billion at the end of 2022, has destabilized the country’s macroeconomy and slowed economic growth, Kremer said in the report. Just over half of the debt is owed to China, which helped Laos build the US$6 billion Lao-China High Speed Railway as part of its Belt and Road Initiative. Other major Chinese investments include roads and hydropower dams. Mining projects and local jobs Meanwhile, the government approved 192 concession projects last year worth almost US$5 billion in 2023, more than double the number from the previous year, according to the Ministry of Planning and Investment. Most of the investors are from China and Vietnam who are focused on the country’s mining, energy and agricultural sectors, the ministry said in a report. Projects approved by the government in 2022 were worth US$2.3 billion, according to the ministry. Most of the projects are in the mining sector, which could create more jobs for local people as companies seek to extract gold, ore and other minerals, according to an official who is familiar with the country’s planning and investment sector . “Of course, there are some impacts but they are not big problems,” he said. “There will be damage to local roads, but the investing companies are responsible for that. Some local people will have opportunities to work as daily workers.” Debt servicing Service payments on the country’s debt – the regular payments required by loan issuers that include interest and principal – could rise to 39 percent of GDP, the World Bank said. Laos’ currency, the kip, depreciated 29% against the Thai baht and 21% against the U.S. dollar last year. The main cause of the depreciation was a shortage of foreign currencies needed to pay down the debt and fund development projects, according to the World Bank. Similar to a sales tax, the value-added tax, or VAT, is added to the price of a product or service at each stage of production. Raising it from 7% to 10% and bringing in more revenue from tobacco and alcohol sales would help stabilize the government’s finances, Kremer said. The Lao government has also been cracking down on corruption, selling government assets and eliminating ineffective state enterprises. New import-export requirements An official from Laos’ national bank, the Bank of the Lao PDR, told Radio Free Asia that other measures to get inflation under control, such as mandating exchange rates and enforcing the law on foreign currency management, haven’t been working. “We’ve failed to control exchange rates, even after we shut down all money exchange outlets,” he said, requesting anonymity for safety reasons like other sources in this report. “But we can’t inspect everything and everywhere.” The Lao Ministry of Industry and Trade on Dec. 29 unveiled a new rule that requires all import-export companies to register with the government and to conduct all foreign transactions only through banks in Laos. “We want the companies to make payments through the banks in Laos so that more foreign currencies will be in the system,” an official from the Lao Ministry of Finance said. Most commercial banks in Laos aren’t able to sell foreign currencies to customers, according to an official of the Joint Development Bank’s Luang Prabang branch. “We only buy foreign currencies,” he said. “If customers really need foreign currencies, they can write a formal letter requesting to buy foreign currencies from any banks.” Because of the government enforcement on foreign currency, business people in Laos have turned to the black market for foreign currency, an employee of an import-export company that brings in goods from Thailand told RFA. Translated by Phouvong. Edited by Matt Reed.
