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Month: June 2024

Thai Senate adopts historic bill legalizing same-sex marriage

Editor09 mins

People rejoiced in the streets of Bangkok and other Thai cities on Tuesday after the Senate passed a bill that puts Thailand on the cusp of becoming the first Southeast Asian nation to legalize same-sex marriage. With the two houses of the Thai legislature having now adopted legislation that provides equal marriage rights to LGBTQ people, the bill will become law within 120 days after the king signs it and it is published in the Royal Gazette. The legislation is expected to unlock previously denied legal rights for Thai same-sex and non-traditional couples, such as adoption or the ability to make health care decisions for their partners’ behalf, human rights activists said.  A majority of senators attending the session voted in favor of its passage. About 100 of the 250-member Senate were not present for the vote. Out of 152 voters, 130 approved, four disapproved and 18 abstained, said Gov. Singsuk Singprai, the first vice president of the Senate, who chaired Tuesday’s session. The scene outside Government House in Bangkok was filled with rainbow colors of the Pride flag as gay people and others gathered to celebrate this landmark moment for Thailand’s LGBTQ community.      “As an LGBTQ person who is in love and wants to marry another woman, we have long hoped that we would have equal rights and dignity, just like the heterosexual couples who can marry and start families,” Ann “Waaddao” Chumaporn, an LGBTQ organizer and community spokesperson, said during Tuesday’s Senate deliberations on the Marriage Equality Bill.    _________________________________RELATED STORYTogether three decades, Thai same-sex couple hopes for legal recognition _________________________________ The bill proposes replacing terms such as “husband” and “wife” with “spouse” in Section 1448 of Thailand’s Civil and Commercial Code.  “We hope that changes in Thailand will ignite a spark for other countries in Asia. Although this law is not 100% perfect, from an international human rights organization’s perspective, it makes Thai law more aligned with international standards,” Mookdapa Yangyuenpradorn, a Southeast Asian human rights associate at Fortify Rights, told BenarNews, an affiliate of Radio Free Asia. If and when the bill becomes law, Thailand would join Taiwan and Nepal as the only countries in Asia to recognize the rights of same-sex couples to wed. Members of the LGBTQ+ community celebrate after Thailand’s Senate passed a marriage equality bill to legalize same-sex unions, outside Government House in Bangkok, June 18, 2024. (Patipat Janthong/Reuters) Isa Gharti, a public policy researcher at Chiang Mai University, said the vote demonstrates progress in accepting sexual diversity. “This shows the societal advancement in Thailand in terms of accepting sexual diversity and safeguarding the rights of the LGBTQ community to equality both legally and in human dignity. This is a positive sign that will make Thai society more open, although there are still some voices of opposition,” Isa said. “Going forward, Thailand must also address deeply entrenched gender discrimination and biases in education, employment, and public health,” Isa said. “It’s essential to educate the public to foster understanding and reduce stigmatization of sexual diversity.” ‘Beautiful and powerful’ In Thailand, a Buddhist-majority politically conservative country, legislation around same-sex marriage has been more than two decades in the making.  An earlier marriage equality bill, introduced by opposition lawmakers from the progressive Move Forward Party, reached its second reading in November 2022, but didn’t move beyond that because of a series of legislative delays. It died when Parliament dissolved in March 2023 ahead of the general election two months later.  This year, the House of Representatives overwhelmingly approved the current bill, with 400 of 415 lawmakers present endorsing it at its final reading in March. Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, who is a backer of marriage equality, has said his government was working toward Bangkok hosting World Pride 2028. “We have fought a long time because we believe in all equal rights,” Srettha wrote on his X account after the vote. “Today is our day. We celebrate to ‘diverse’ love, not ‘different’ [love]. Love is beautiful and powerful.’ Supporters of LGBTQ+ rights march toward Government House in Bangkok as they celebrate the Senate’s approval of a same-sex marriage bill, June 18, 2024. (James Wilson-Thai News Pix/BenarNews) The movement for legal recognition of same-sex marriage began during the Thaksin Shinawatra government in 2001. At the time, the Ministry of Interior proposed amendments to the marriage law, but dropped them because of public opposition. A military coup forced Thaksin from the prime minister’s office in 2006. In 2012, the government of Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, introduced the Civil Partnership Bill for consideration. While this bill did not grant full marriage rights to same-sex couples, its progress was halted by another military coup in 2014 that drove her from the same office. The Move Forward Party proposed the Marriage Equality Bill in the lower House in 2022. Simultaneously, the administration of then-Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha submitted the Civil Partnership Bill for consideration.  While the two bills shared similarities, the Civil Partnership Bill would have established a “life partnership” status for same-sex couples, granting them fewer legal rights than “marriage.” The House term ended before either bill could be passed. After Tuesday’s Senate vote, Plaifah Kyoka Shodladd, an 18-year-old who identifies as non-binary, took the floor and thanked everyone who supported the legislation, calling it a “force of hope” that will help Thailand become more accepting of diversity, the Associated Press reported. “Today, love trumps prejudice,” Plaifah said. BenarNews is an online news outlet affiliated with Radio Free Asia.

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US Condemns ‘Aggressive’ China After Collision with Philippine Ship in South China Sea

Editor06 mins

The United States has issued a strong condemnation of China following a collision between a Chinese vessel and a Philippine supply ship near Second Thomas Shoal in the disputed South China Sea. This incident, which occurred early Monday, is the latest in a series of increasingly tense confrontations in the strategically critical waterway, heightening concerns about the potential for global conflict. Both nations have blamed each other for the collision, with China asserting “indisputable sovereignty” over almost the entire South China Sea, including many features far from its mainland. The Philippines, along with other nations, disputes these claims. In a post on X, US Ambassador to Manila MaryKay Carlson condemned China’s “aggressive, dangerous maneuvers,” accusing them of causing bodily injury and damaging Philippine vessels. Although neither side reported injuries or significant damage, the incident escalated tensions just weeks after Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. warned that the death of any Filipino in the South China Sea would be considered close to an act of war. Marcos has been strengthening ties with the US, which has emphasized its “ironclad commitment” to a 1951 mutual defense treaty with the Philippines. This treaty obligates both nations to defend each other if attacked by a third party. US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller reiterated the US’s support for the Philippines, condemning China’s “escalatory and irresponsible actions.” Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell discussed the collision with Philippine Undersecretary of Foreign Affairs Maria Theresa Lazaro, emphasizing that China had obstructed the Philippines’ lawful maritime operations, infringing on their freedom of navigation. The collision marks the first such incident since China enacted a new law on Saturday allowing its coast guard to seize foreign ships and detain their crews for up to 60 days without trial. The Chinese coast guard accused the Philippine ship of ignoring warnings and approaching in a “deliberately and dangerously” unprofessional manner. In contrast, Philippine authorities accused Chinese ships of “dangerous maneuvers,” including ramming and towing Philippine vessels. Philippine army spokesperson Col. Francel Margareth Padilla highlighted that the main issue is the illegal presence and actions of Chinese vessels within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone, infringing on their sovereignty. Second Thomas Shoal, a submerged reef located about 200 kilometers from the Philippine island of Palawan, is part of the Spratly Islands—a region claimed by multiple nations including China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan. The shoal has strategic importance due to its proximity to potential oil and gas reserves. In 2016, an international tribunal in The Hague ruled in favor of the Philippines, declaring China had no legal basis for its extensive claims in the South China Sea. However, China has ignored this ruling, continuing to assert its dominance in the region. Over the past year, clashes between China Coast Guard ships and Philippine vessels have resulted in damage and injuries to Filipino sailors. The latest incident involved a Philippine ship on a mission to supply soldiers stationed on the BRP Sierra Madre, a rusting vessel grounded deliberately in 1999 to assert the Philippines’ territorial claims. The Chinese Coast Guard accused the Philippines of illegally delivering supplies and conducted measures including “warnings and interceptions” and forced evictions, claiming their actions were reasonable and professional. Philippine officials have broadly denounced China’s actions. Defense Minister Gilberto C. Teodoro Jr. stated that China’s “dangerous and reckless behavior” would be resisted by the Armed Forces of the Philippines, calling for the international community to recognize China as the primary obstacle to peace and stability in the South China Sea. This incident underscores the ongoing and intensifying disputes in the South China Sea, where China’s actions continue to challenge regional stability and international maritime laws. For a detailed analysis of China’s broader maritime activities, refer to our extensive report, “An Investigation into the Dubious Chinese Distant-Water Fishing Fleet (DWF).”

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Guards beat dozens of female political prisoners in Myanmar

Editor03 mins

Myanmar prison authorities beat about 80 female political prisoners, critically injuring five of them, after prison authorities sparked a protest when they confiscated the women’s belongings, a human rights group told Radio Free Asia on Tuesday.  Many people have been imprisoned in Myanmar for their political beliefs and activity since a 2021 coup ended a decade of tentative democratic  reforms and triggered widespread opposition to military rule. Junta authorities have been accused of torture, extrajudicial killings and other abuses in Myanmar’s cramped and crumbling prisons. Tension in the Bago region’s Daik-U Prison began when guards seized food and personal belongings of about 40 political prisoners on Saturday, according to the Political Prisoner Network Myanmar. The women demanded their items back. As the disturbance grew, prison authorities punched and beat women prisoners and fired shots into the air, said a member of the rights group’s steering committee, Thaik Tun Oo.  “The five who were seriously injured are being treated at the prison’s clinic,” he told RFA, adding that they had suffered severe blows to the head.  Thirty of the victims were locked in cells following the riot, he said.  RFA contacted both the junta’s Prison Department and the Myanmar office of the International Committee of the Red Cross for more information on the situation but telephone calls and emails to both went unanswered. About 160 political prisoners, including many of the victims, had recently been transferred from Kyaikmaraw Prison in Mon state, as well as Bago’s Thayarwady Prison, known for its poor conditions and crumbling infrastructure, Thaik Tun Oo said.  Two prominent members of the political activist organizations 88 Generation Peace and Open Society, Nu Nu Aung and Khat Khat Lwin, are being held at Daik-U Prison, said sources close to Nu Nu Aung, who added that she had been injured in the disturbance.  According to the rights group the Assistance Association for the Political Prisoners, as of Monday, more than 9,000 of the 26,877 people arrested since the coup had been sentenced to prison terms. Translated by RFA Burmese. Edited by Kiana Duncan and Taejun Kang. 

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Former top Tibet official under probe for corruption

Editor010 mins

The Chinese Communist Party’s former top boss in Tibet is being investigated for “severe violations of discipline and law,” according to a statement from China’s anti-corruption body, using a euphemism commonly used to describe corruption.  Wu Yingjie, former party secretary of the Tibet Autonomous Region, is one of several top officials recently dismissed from the Chinese Communist Party amid a crackdown on officials past and present who have engaged in graft.  The move was praised by Tibetans on Chinese social media in a rare display of public opinion about such measures in China. “It is very good that this man has been arrested,” said one person. “This is good news for Tibetans,” said another.  “This enemy of the Tibetans has been captured and it will eliminate harm from the Tibetan people,” said a third. In 2022, the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Wu, 67, for his policies in Tibet that “involved serious human rights abuse, including extrajudicial killings, physical abuse, arbitrary arrests, and mass detentions” in the far-western region. Additional abuses cited included forced sterilization, coerced abortion, restrictions on religious and political freedoms, and the torture of prisoners. Wu, who now serves on the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, is the first former party secretary of the Tibetan Autonomous Region, or TAR, to be placed under investigation and the eighth ministerial-level official to face a probe since the Communist Party’s National Congress in 2022.  The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the National Supervisory Commission announced the investigation on June 16.    Other officials under investigation include Dong Yunhu, chief of the Shanghai legislature; Sun Zhigang, a former medical reform official; Han Yong, former chairman of the Shaanxi Provincial Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference; Gou Zhongwen, former sports minister; Tang Yijun, former justice minister; Tang Renjian, agriculture minister; and Li Yuefeng,  executive vice-chairman of the Central Committee of the Taiwan Democratic Self-Government League. Tibetans react Tibetans inside Tibet took to Chinese social media to express their scorn for Wu Yingjie, known for his crackdowns and repressive policies, a source inside Tibet told Radio Free Asia on the condition of anonymity for fear of reprisal.  More than 760 comments appeared on a WeChat channel in response to a story about Wu’s investigation, all expressing support for the probe. Members of the Tibetan community in Belgium hold a demonstration to mark the celebration of the 57th Tibetan Uprising Day in front of the EU headquarters in Brussels on March 10, 2016. (Emmanuel Dunand/AFP) But at least one activist predicted the investigation would do nothing to change the plight of Tibetans. “Despite Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s investigation of  Wu Yingjie and other officials as part of the nation’s anti-corruption campaign, there will be no positive impact on Tibet and its related issues,” said Sangay Kyap, a Tibetan rights analyst. Shortly after Wu was promoted to party secretary in 2016, he issued a statement stressing the need for officials to “expand positive propaganda” and to “thoroughly expose and criticize” the Dalai Lama, the spiritual leader of Tibetan Buddhism. Wu also urged officials to “eliminate the negative influence” of the Dalai Lama’s use of religion and to guide believers to treat religion rationally. Under President Xi Jinping, Wu also intensified repressive measures in Tibet, including the establishment of Chinese-run boarding schools with a curriculum focused on the Chinese language that undermines Tibetan culture and language, said Bawa Kelsang Gyaltsen, representative of the Office of Tibet in Taiwan. “Wu Yingjie had been the CCP party secretary for the region, implementing severe and oppressive policies in Tibet for over 20 years,” he said, referring to the Chinese Communist Party. Another official, Jiang Jie, 58, a former senior political advisor in the TAR, was also indicted on charges of taking bribes by the Supreme People’s Procuratorate following an investigation, the body announced on June 14. Jiang Jie is shown in a Jan. 17, 2024 post on X. (@globaltimesnews via X) Prosecutors in Tianjin allege that Jiang, who is also a former vice chairman of the TAR’s Regional Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, misused his various positions, including serving as mayor of Dongying in Shandong province and deputy head of the regional government, to unlawfully gain advantages for others in exchange for significant sums of money and valuables. Xinjiang official expelled In a related development, Li Pengxin, a former deputy secretary of the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, the region north of Tibet, has been expelled from the Communist Party and dismissed from public office for “serious violations of Party discipline and laws,” official Chinese media reported Monday. An investigation found that Li, 63, had lost his ideals and convictions, was dishonest about his problems, accepted money and valuables, took advantage of his former position to seek benefits for others, and was suspected of accepting bribes, according to a statement issued Monday by China’s anti-corruption body and the National Commission of Supervision. Li Pengxin is shown in a June 17, 2024 post on X. (@PD China via X) When Li was deputy secretary in Xinjiang from September 2016 to July 2021, he oversaw a crackdown on Uyghur educators, sending them to prison  At a meeting of party cadres in 2017, Li announced that prominent Uyghur scholar Tashpolat Teyip had been removed and replaced as president of Xinjiang University.  Afterwards, Teyip disappeared from public view, leading Uyghurs to believe he had been detained. Uyghurs interviewed by RFA in 2018, after news about his disappearance came to light, said they believed Teyip was removed amid an unprecedented ideological purge in Xinjiang against so-called “two-faced” Uyghur officials. The term is used by authorities to describe Uyghurs who do not willingly follow directives and exhibit signs of disloyalty. Additional reporting and translation by Tenzin Dickyi for RFA Tibetan and Alim Seyoff for RFA Uyghur. Edited by Tenzin Pema, Roseanne Gerin and Malcolm Foster.

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China says Philippine vessel causes collision in South China Sea

Editor04 mins

China said a Philippine supply vessel “dangerously” approached its ship near a disputed atoll in the South China Sea on Monday, causing a collision but the Philippines dismissed the complaint as “deceptive and misleading.” The Chinese coast guard said in a statement a supply ship from the Philippines “illegally intruded into the waters adjacent to Ren’ai Reef,” using the Chinese name for the Second Thomas Shoal.  The Philippines deliberately ran a World War II-era warship, the BRP Sierra Madre, aground on the shoal in 1999 to serve as a military outpost. It runs regular rotation and resupply missions to the shoal, known as Ayungin in the Philippines. The Chinese coast guard added the Philippine supply ship ignored its warnings, violated international regulations for preventing collisions at sea and “deliberately and dangerously” approached the Chinese vessel in an “unprofessional manner, resulting in a collision.” “The responsibility lies entirely with the Philippines,” it said. The Philippine military said in response that it would not discuss operational details of what it calls “legal humanitarian rotation and resupply mission” at the shoal. “We will not dignify the deceptive and misleading claims of the China coast guard,” it said in a statement, adding that the main issue remained “the illegal presence and actions of Chinese vessels” within the Philippines’ EEZ. The Chinese actions not only infringe the sovereignty and sovereign rights of the Philippines but also escalate tensions in the region, it stated. Tensions between China and the Philippines at the shoal have in recent months been the most serious in years in the South China Sea, where six parties hold overlapping claims with China’s claim the most expansive, including more than 80% of the waters. New order China has been blocking the Philippines’ efforts to bring supplies to the marines stationed on the BRP Sierra Madre, saying the voyages violate China’s jurisdiction despite the reef being located well inside Manila’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ). In March, Chinese coast guard and maritime militia vessels were accused of firing a water cannon at a Philippine supply boat near the shoal, causing significant damage to the vessel and injuring its crew. It is unclear whether a water cannon was used in the Monday incident and what damage the alleged collision caused to the vessels involved. The Chinese coast guard has issued a new order, which became effective on June 15, that allows its force to detain foreign vessels and crew suspected of “trespassing” into Chinese-claimed waters. Edited by Taejun Kang. 

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Myanmar’s junta takes desperate measures to stem capital flight

Editor014 mins

The rumors were everywhere: A politically connected crony, U Thein Wai, better known as Serge Pun, was called in for questioning.  While he was not arrested, the military’s questioning of the CEO of Yoma Bank and eight directors of other subsidiaries under his control is another indicator of just how dire Myanmar’s economic situation is.  The 71-year old Sino-Burmese tycoon sits atop a massive business empire of some 50 different interrelated companies. The most important of these are First Myanmar Investment Company (FMI), Serge Pun and Associates (SPA), and, of course, Yoma Bank.  While largely invested in real estate through Yoma Land, SPA is one of the largest conglomerates in the country, with investments in real estate, construction, banking and financial services, Suzuki automobile assembly, the KFC franchise and healthcare.  Yoma Bank is one of the largest private banks in Myanmar and has been in important overseas conduit, especially after the US government sanctioned two state banks in June 2023. Yoma Bank has ties to the military, lending to both the military-owned Mytel and Pinnacle Asia, which is owned by Min Aung Hlaing’s daughter, Khin Thiri Thet Mon. Yoma Bank CEO U Thein Wai, also known as Serge Pun, smiles as electronic trading commences during the opening day of trading at Yangon Stock Exchange, March 25, 2016. (Gemunu Amarasinghe/AP) In November 2022, the State Administrative Council, as the junta is formally called, bestowed on him the honorific Thiri Pyanchi, granted for outstanding performance.  Pun’s ties to the military are deep enough that the World Bank’s International Finance Corporation divested their 4.55% equity stake in Yoma Bank in December 2022, selling it to FMI. This is not to say that Pun has been completely pro-military. Compared to other cronies, he’s been much less so. He’s hedged his bets and incorporated holdings in Singapore and Hong Kong. Arguably he would be a lot wealthier were it not for the coup, but he’s worked within the reality of the coup. So what prompted the Office of the Chief of Military Security Affairs, the feared military intelligence service, to come calling? In short, facilitating capital flight.  Real estate roadshow In late May, a group of five executives of a real estate firm, Minn Thu Co., held an unauthorized roadshow, selling Bangkok condominiums. Minn Thu had allegedly established unauthorized bank accounts in Thailand to facilitate the sales.  Thai real estate is being pitched to Burmese as a safe investment at a time when the kyat has fallen to a record low of over 5,000 kyat per dollar, while soaring inflation eats into the currency’s purchasing power.  Gold has reached record rates: 5.8 million kyat per tical (15.2 grams, .54 oz) – 4.5 times the pre-coup rate of 1.3 million kyat. Over 20 gold dealers have been arrested recently, accused of engaging in speculation.  The beleaguered middle class is desperately searching for a place to park what’s left of their assets after more than three years of conflict. Four of the five businessmen who staged the roadshow have been arrested, and one other executive is at large.  A customer waits to withdraw money at Yoma Bank in Yangon, June 17, 2013. (Soe Zeya Tun/Reuters) To serve as a deterrent to others, the junta arrested three people who purchased the condos, having illegally transferred assets overseas. Yoma Bank is believed to have assisted in financing the purchases by  transferring assets to Bangkok in violation of the junta’s currency controls. Military intelligence officials are also investigating whether Yoma Bank is offering what are de facto mortgages for overseas real estate, as an investment vehicle, in contravention of Myanmar law. In recent days, the junta has expanded their investigation into over 100,000 private bank transfers. Capital flight began immediately after the coup. Radio Free Asia reported the purchase of THB2.5 billion (US$69 million) and THB 3.7 billion (US$100 million) in Thai real estate in 2022 and 2023, respectively.  In the first quarter of 2024, Burmese were the second largest group of foreign nationals to invest in Thai real estate, according to the Bangkok Post, having purchased at least 384 units, worth THB2.2 billion ($60 million). Estimates, though, are far higher, as many properties are believed to have been purchased using Thai nominees.  Focus on funds And of course, the revelation that junta leader Min Aung Hlaing’s own children have moved their own assets to Thailand was a huge embarrassment for the regime. Aung Pyae Sone owns a condominium worth around $1 million in Bangkok, while Khin Thiri Thet Mon has two accounts at Siam Commercial Bank.  Reports are emerging that Khin Sri Thet Mon purchased a condo in the ultra swank SCOPE Langsuan, which was completed in May 2023, and where a three bedroom unit sells for $4.2 million to over $15 million. The SAC has deployed uniformed personnel to both public and private banks since mid-2021 to block transfers to the civil disobedience movement, the National Unity Government, and ethnic resistance organizations. But soon after that, they also began monitoring capital flight. The junta is increasingly cracking down on the informal banking sector, known as hundi, that is used by at least 40 percent of overseas workers. In early June, the regime froze the accounts of 39 additional hundi dealers, following the crackdown on 20 others in January.  The hundi system keeps desperately needed foreign exchange out of the formal banking system, where people and companies are forced to convert it to kyat at artificially low exchange rates. Given the state of the economy, capital flight is the rational choice for Burmese with the means.. Myanmar junta chief Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing and his wife, Kyu Kyu Hla, visit a Buddhist monastery in Thailand in February 2018. (Myanmar military) The World Bank has reported on the dire state of the economy, which has shrunk by nearly 20% since the coup. The poverty rate is now 32%, while 2024 GDP growth estimates have been halved to 1%.  The NUG estimates that the junta has printed 30 trillion kyat…

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Government mum about Hun Sen audio calling for opposition to be ‘smashed’

Editor07 mins

Former Prime Minister Hun Sen encouraged supporters of the ruling Cambodian People’s Party to “smash” and “destroy” opposition political activists in audio comments that circulated on Khmer social media this week. The Cambodian government has neither confirmed nor denied the veracity of the audio, which circulated widely on Facebook and other social media. Listeners say it sounds like the veteran leader, who currently serves as Senate president. It was purportedly recorded at a party meeting last week. “Please all city, capital and provincial presidents of the party, be informed that in the past few weeks I sent a decision pertaining to a group of people who are experts in destroying the grassroots,” Hun Sen says in the audio. “You must smash this force to a point that they no longer disturb us, let’s make it clear,” he said. “While we destroy their forces, we can persuade them to join us.” In August, Hun Sen stepped down as prime minister, a position he held since 1985, allowing his son to take over. But he retains power as the president of the Senate and head of the Cambodian People’s Party, or CPP. The run-up to the July 2023 parliamentary elections saw a months-long campaign of intimidation and threats against opposition leaders and activists. Some activists were persuaded to publicly switch their allegiance to the CPP.  Additionally, the National Election Committee ruled that the main opposition Candlelight Party couldn’t appear on the ballot, citing inadequate paperwork. The decision paved the way for the CPP to win 120 of 125 seats in the National Assembly. Cambodia also held Senate elections in February and local provincial, municipal and district elections in May. Care for the new ‘brothers and sisters’ In the audio, Hun Sen urged CPP officials to work on persuading opposition activists to defect now – instead of waiting to act months before the next round of elections.  Cambodia has local commune council elections scheduled for 2027. Its next parliamentary election is set to take place in 2028. Supporters of the ruling Cambodian People’s Party participate in a campaign rally in Phnom Penh on July 21, 2023. (Tang Chhin Sothy/AFP) Efforts should include incorporating party switchers into the CPP’s party structure and encouraging them to recruit more defectors, Hun Sen said. “I ask the provincial party and local party offices to expeditiously administer these brothers and sisters [defectors] so they do not feel left out, or that there is a lack of care for them by the local party branches,” he said.  “Let’s declare the incorporation [of the defectors] into the party from now,” he said. “Let’s break their grassroot bases now so that they do not have base support.” Hun Sen is an avid social media user, with 14 million followers on Facebook and 925,000 on TikTok. RFA messaged Hun Sen on Facebook on Wednesday to verify the audio, but he hadn’t responded by Friday. RFA was also unable to reach government spokesman Pen Bona for comment. ‘Psychological threat’ Eng Chhai Eang, a former opposition lawmaker who now lives in the United States, said the audio was forwarded to him last week after a CPP official had sent it to opposition activists in Cambodia. He told RFA he believed the audio was real and reflects Hun Sen’s longtime approach to political opponents. Eng Chhai Eang continues to serve as the vice president of the Cambodian National Rescue Party, or CNRP, which was the main opposition party until it was banned by the Supreme Court in 2017. “His vicious deeds started after the CNRP dissolution,” he said. “He ordered attacks against those who refused to defect. Any activists were attacked.” The audio was probably intended as a “a psychological threat,” according to Rong Chhun, a prominent opposition activist who is an adviser to the opposition National Power Party, which was founded last year. Translated by Yun Samean and Sok Ry Sum. Edited by Matt Reed and Malcolm Foster.

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China’s dependency on potash imports could give tiny Laos rare leverage

Editor012 mins

Let’s start with the good news – potentially great news, in fact – for Southeast Asia: Laos could be sitting on 10 billion tons of potash, one of the three main fertilizers used in global agriculture.  In 2022, a subsidiary of the Chinese company Asia-Potash International announced a $4.3 billion investment in a potash mining venture in Khammouane province. This deal grants exploration rights to 48 square kilometers for potassium ore.  The company reckons it can start with producing 1 million metric tons of potash annually, scale up to 5 million tons by 2025 and eventually reach 7 to 10 million tons. For a comparison, Canada, the world’s largest potash producer, exported around 23 million metric tons, valued at approximately $6.6 billion, in 2023. In 2022, Laos’s potash exports were valued at approximately $580 million, representing about 1.7 percent of global supply. It isn’t inconceivable that Laos will become a global player.  Location helps Laos Geography is key. Next door is China, the world’s largest importer of food and food inputs, and the world’s third-biggest purchaser of potash. China imports around 8 million metric tons each year, about half of its demand, although that is increasing.  China is the world’s biggest producer of potatoes, which are very reliant on potassium. China’s potato heartlands – Yunnan, Guizhou and Sichuan provinces – are on Laos’ doorstep. Guangdong province, China’s main banana producer, isn’t too far away.  There’s ample room for Laos to expand potash exports in Southeast Asia, too. Indonesia, the world’s fourth-largest potash importer, bought around $2.1 billion worth in 2022, with Laos holding a 6 percent market share.  Malaysia, the sixth-largest importer, spent around $1 billion on potash, with Laos having a 2 percent share. Laos is already the largest supplier of potash to Vietnam, with exports worth about $82 million in 2022. Officials with Sino-Agri International Potash Co., Ltd. and the Lao government sign a memorandum of understanding March 24, 2023, to build a smart eco-industrial city in Khammouane province. (Pathedlao) If, for instance, Laos was to replace suppliers like Jordan and Israel and capture a 20% share of China’s potash import market, its exports could rise to around US$750-800 million, making potash Laos’ second-largest export product, after energy.  Right now, the spot price for potassium chloride is US$307 per metric ton. So, loosely, 10 million tons exported a year would bring in around US$3 billion.  Expectations shouldn’t be that high, though. It’s one thing for a Chinese investor to promise to produce 10 million tons a year and it’s another thing for it to actually deliver it.  And because it’s a Chinese firm selling the goods, most of the money won’t stay in Laos. And there are already the same complaints as with every Chinese investment: Asia-Potash International isn’t hiring local workers.  Geopolitics Nonetheless, estimates vary, but there still could be between $30 million and $300 million in annual revenue for the Lao state. Almost certainly it will be towards the lower end, but it’s not to be sniffed at by the badly-indebted government.  However, consider the geostrategic implications.  Up until now, China hasn’t really needed Laos. It lacks the strategic importance of Cambodia, with its naval base on the Gulf of Thailand, or the trade routes offered by Myanmar, where China is developing a $7 billion port to access the Indian Ocean for oil and LNG imports from the Gulf.  In 2022, Laos accounted for a mere 0.1 percent of China’s total imports; food makes up less than a tenth of that, so Laos isn’t a solution to China’s future food insecurity. A bulldozer works on a large hill of potash at the Dead Sea Works in Israel’s Sodom area, Feb. 16, 2016. (Menahem Kahana/AFP) China’s primary import from Laos is pulped paper, not energy. Instead, China constructs hydropower dams and coal-fired stations in Laos, which generate electricity sold to Thailand and Vietnam.  Geostrategically, Laos is a useful ally for Beijing to have because of its ASEAN membership, but Vientiane holds little weight in the regional bloc.  Should something drastic occur in Laos – such as the fall of the ruling communist party or the emergence of an anti-China government – Beijing would be displeased and Chinese investments would be at risk, but China’s national security would be unaffected.  That situation changes if Laos becomes a significant supplier of potash. If projections are correct and Laos can produce between 7-10 million tons of potash annually, it could theoretically more than meet China’s entire import demand. That makes Laos a national security interest for Beijing. Food security The Chinese government is preparing itself for military conflict. It knows that in the event it launches an invasion of Taiwan or attacks a rival state in the South China Sea, the West will hammer it with economic sanctions so damaging it would make the retribution reaped on Russia look like a slap on the wrist.  Self-sufficiency and diversification are the buzzwords. But it’s doubtful that China – arguably the country most dependent on world trade and on U.S. protection of shipping routes – could survive such sanctions.  Even short of war, food security has long been a major concern for China., for reasons too long to go into. According to Xi Jinping, the supreme leader, food security is the “foundation for national security.”  Beijing is also concerned that its reliance on imported fertilizer inputs “could pose a major threat to its food security”. There’s no way China can achieve the food self-sufficiency that Xi wants, as was spelled out in a detailed study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a U.S. thinktank. Farmers operate rice seedling transplanters in Taizhou, in eastern China’s Jiangsu province, June 12, 2024. (AFP) China can domestically produce enough nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, the latter essential for phosphate-hungry rice. But almost all of China’s phosphate is produced in Xinjiang and Tibet, far away from the rice-growing Han heartland and where the local population is largely hostile to rule by Beijing. China will remain…

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Junta troops destroy roads in northern Myanmar as renewed fighting looms

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Military junta troops have destroyed major roads that connect several towns and cities controlled by rebel forces in northern Myanmar’s Shan State in what could be preparation for renewed fighting in the area, residents told Radio Free Asia. Junta forces used bulldozers on Wednesday to damage a road connecting Namtu township and Namsang Man Ton, which has been under the control of the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, or TNLA. On Thursday, junta bulldozers made a section of the Lashio-Hsenwi road impassable. That part of the road, which leads to Hsenwi, Kun Long and Chinshwehaw townships, is an area controlled by the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, or MNDAA. The TNLA, MNDAA and Arakan Army together make up the Three Brotherhood Alliance, which in October launched an offensive that has dealt the military a series of defeats, pushing government forces back. Residents of Lashio told RFA that security has been tightened at the entrance to the strategic town, which is home to the military’s northeast command headquarters. The road leading to Lashio city under the control of Brigade 6 of the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) was destroyed by the junta, June 13, 2024. (PSLF/TNLA News via Telegram) That’s likely a reaction to a nearby buildup of forces by the Three Brotherhood Alliance, a resident told RFA on condition of anonymity for security reasons. “It’s been apparent that the junta has also been gathering its forces and weapons near the area controlled by the ethnic armed organizations,” the resident said.  “Moreover, insurgent forces have been seen near Lashio,” the resident. “And now the roads to Lashio have been cut off. It is expected that conflict will occur very soon.” Ceasefire violation A resident of Moe Meik township, who requested not to be named, told RFA that people are already fleeing to safe areas ahead of expected armed clashes between the junta and the alliance. “We have learned that the ethnic alliance force is headed to this area,” he said. “Almost all the people have left the town now.” The destroyed roads have led to a rise in the price of rice and other goods, a Namtu township resident told RFA. Gasoline has increased from 3,600 kyat (US$1.72) to 4,000 kyat (US$1.91) per liter and is being sold on a limited basis, he said. In nearby Kutkai township, the price of rice has risen by 50,000 kyat (US$24) per bag as people rush to buy supplies, a resident there said. Three Brotherhood Alliance and junta representatives agreed to a Chinese-brokered ceasefire during a round of talks in January. Less than a week after the agreement, both sides were accused of violating the deal.  Members of the Kokang army (MNDAA) clean up the Rantheshan camp, which they had just captured, October 29, 2023. (The Ko Kang via Facebook) Junta forces carried out artillery shelling on June 9 on a TNLA outpost between Pang Tin and Man Pying villages, which is located about 32 kilometers (20 miles) away from Moe Meik.  Troop movements and other preparations by the TNLA are in response to the shelling, several residents said. TNLA spokeswoman Lway Yay Oo told RFA that the junta is violating the January ceasefire agreement, and they will carry out retaliatory attacks if junta troops conduct more military action. “It was found that the junta has sent more drones and forces in northern Shan state. They are also cutting off routes,” he said. “It is deliberately creating fear in the public.” Calls by RFA to junta spokesperson Major Gen. Zaw Min Tun for a response to the TNLA spokeswoman’s remark went unanswered.    It’s unlikely that members of the Three Brotherhood Alliance would accept another ceasefire, military and political commentator Hla Kyaw Zaw said. “Even if China tries to prevent it again, the TNLA will not stop its mission,” he said. “Now that the junta has cut through the roads, the TNLA has reason to attack.” Translated by Aung Naing. Edited by Matt Reed and Malcolm Foster.

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Investigative Journalism Reportika © March 2022 by Ij-Reportika is licensed under CC BY 4.0