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Dozens of Rohingya rescued from capsized boat off Indonesian coast

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Indonesian rescuers on Thursday brought ashore 69 additional Rohingya who were found clinging to their wooden boat for nearly a day and suffering from hunger and dehydration after it capsized in the Indian Ocean off the coast of Aceh province, authorities said.  Those rescued were brought to shore for medical treatment, said Supriadi, captain of the rescue ship, even as some locals protested their arrival. Six others from the same boat were rescued Wednesday by local fishermen. “When they were found, they were weak due to dehydration and perhaps had not eaten for several days,” said Supriadi, who goes by one name.  Authorities reported that search efforts were complete.   A video taken by a fisherman on Wednesday showed more than 50 Rohingya standing on the overturned hull of the barely visible boat as they frantically waved for help. The boat had flipped over in waters off Kuala Bubon port (16 nautical miles from Meulaboh), possibly after being struck by large waves, according to officials. Zaned Salim, one of the original six to be rescued, said 150 Rohingya departed from a Malaysian refugee camp 24 days ago, hoping to sail to Australia, adding that about 50 people had died during the journey. Authorities said they did not recover any bodies during rescue efforts, adding that those efforts were finished.  Meanwhile, hundreds of residents blocked roads in protest against the latest Rohingya arrival.  “The residents demand that the Rohingya refugees not be placed in their village,” said Iswahyudi, West Aceh’s deputy police chief, who goes by one name. Local journalists reported that villagers were carrying banners and shouting their opposition to the refugees’ presence.  “We do not accept refugees here. … Why bring them to our village?” said one resident. Indonesia is not a signatory to the 1951 Refugee Convention, but has a long history of hosting refugees from various conflicts. It allows refugees to stay temporarily, while they wait for a third country to resettle them, a process that can take years. Aceh has a history of welcoming Rohingya, specifically, but there has been growing resistance fueled by negative sentiment on social media. Some residents claimed there are not enough resources for both themselves and the Rohingya. A Rohingya holds a floatation device as he swims toward a rescue boat in the waters off West Aceh, Indonesia, March 21, 2024. [Reza Saifullah/AP] Faisal Rahman, an associate with the United Nations refugee agency (UNHCR) praised the collaborative rescue operations by the local leadership and law enforcement. “The UNHCR deeply appreciates the swift and compassionate action of the West Aceh district officials and their teams in aiding the Rohingya,” Faisal said, adding several of those rescued were in poor health and rushed to a local hospital. Rahman said Zaned Salim’s claim that as many as 150 people were aboard the boat needed to be verified.  “If the refugee’s claims were true, it implies a tragic loss of lives at sea, as only 75 individuals have been accounted for,” he said.  A child and other Rohingya sleep aboard a National Search and Rescue Agency ship after being rescued from their capsized wooden boat about 16 nautical miles off the coast at a port in Meulaboh, West Aceh, March 21, 2024. [Zahul Akbar/AFP] Persecuted minority The Rohingya are members of a persecuted stateless Muslim minority from Myanmar who have been fleeing violence and oppression in their homeland for years.  Following a 2017 military offensive in Myanmar’s Rakhine state that the U.N. described as a “textbook example of ethnic cleansing,” about 740,000 Rohingya fled from their homes across the border to Bangladesh. About 1 million Rohingya live in crowded camps in and around Cox’s Bazar in southeastern Bangladesh. Desperate, many leave overcrowded refugee camps in Bangladesh, seeking better lives in other Muslim countries including Malaysia and Indonesia.  The latest wave of Rohingya began arriving in Aceh in October 2023.  Since then, over 1,800 refugees have landed in Indonesia and have been accommodated in locations across Aceh, according to the UNHCR. In January, the UNHCR reported that 569 Rohingya refugees had died or went missing at sea in 2023 while attempting to flee from Myanmar or Bangladesh. BenarNews is an online news affiliate of Radio Free Asia.

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Junta navy arrests around 80 Rohingya off Myanmar coast

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Myanmar’s junta navy arrested around 80 Rohingya attempting to flee the country by boat, residents who witnessed the event told Radio Free Asia on Thursday.  Officials arrested the group on Tuesday morning in Myanmar’s coastal Mon state. The boat was intercepted off the shores of Ye township’s Kaleguak Island in the Andaman Sea. Mon state’s junta spokesperson Aung Myat Kyaw Sein told RFA that although Mon’s administration was made aware of the arrest, other details have yet to be confirmed. “The estimated number is about 80, but we do not know the genders yet,” he said, adding that unspecified official processes still need to be carried out. The arrested Rohingya will be treated well and officials will follow official procedures, he said.  RFA was able to confirm the group traveled on a boat named Zwel Khit San, but could not identify where the group traveled from or where it intended to go. Many Rohingya who had remained in Rakhine state after being targeted in a genocide by the Myanmar military in 2017 fled to Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia following the country’s 2021 coup. In October and November 2023, junta troops arrested over 200 Rohingya escaping to nearby countries by boat, citing job scarcity, unemployment and increasing restrictions placed on the ethnic minority. After junta troops announced the enactment of the People’s Military Service Law on Feb. 10, videos originating from Rakhine state’s west a month later showed Rohingya undergoing military training. Troops have also preyed on Rohingya in internally displaced people’s camps, offering them freedom of movement in exchange for bolstering the junta’s numbers.  Mon state residents said that junta forces arrested 117 Rohingya on a rubber farm in Thanbyuzayat township’s War Kha Yu village in January, but the reason is still unknown.  The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees reported on Jan. 23 that during 2023, at least 569 Rohingya died and went missing after leaving Myanmar and refugee camps in Bangladesh. Translated by RFA Burmese. Edited by Kiana Duncan and Mike Firn. 

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Overseas activists vow to keep fighting despite new Hong Kong security law

Editor09 mins

Overseas activists have vowed to keep up their campaign for Hong Kong’s promised rights and freedoms amid international condemnation of the city’s second national security law, which critics say will likely widen an ongoing crackdown on dissent when it takes effect on Saturday. The Taiwan-based advocacy group Hong Kong Outlanders said the Safeguarding National Security Law, passed unanimously in a Legislative Council with no opposition members on Tuesday, had been rushed through in just 11 days. “We will continue to speak out without fear of this evil law,” the group said, announcing a protest on the streets against the legislation on Saturday, to “defend the rights of Hong Kongers.” U.S. Senator Ben Cardin, who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said the law will have “a chilling effect on the remaining vestiges of Hong Kong’s autonomy and freedoms.” He said he was “alarmed” about the impact of the law on American citizens, businesses and independent media in the city. “I urge the Beijing and the Hong Kong governments to rescind Article 23, as well as the 2020 National Security Law, and restore to the people of Hong Kong their basic rights and freedoms,” Cardin said, adding that Congress will continue to reevaluate the treatment of Hong Kong as a separate entity from the rest of China under U.S. law. Making life harder British Foreign Secretary David Cameron warned that the law will make it harder to live, work and do business in Hong Kong. “It fails to provide certainty for international organizations, including diplomatic missions, who are operating there,” Cameron said in a statement on the government website. A poster advertises a street activity in Taipei on the Facebook page of the Taiwan-based exile group Hong Kong Outlanders. (hkoutlanders.tw via Facebook) “It will entrench the culture of self-censorship which now dominates Hong Kong’s social and political landscape, and enable the continuing erosion of freedoms of speech, of assembly, and of the media,” he said.  In Beijing, foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said such comments were “slander.” “China expresses strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition to certain countries and institutions that denigrate and smear Hong Kong’s Safeguarding National Security Ordinance,” Lin told a regular news briefing in Beijing. “The Chinese government is unswervingly determined to safeguard national sovereignty, security, and development interests, and … to oppose any external interference in Hong Kong affairs,” he said. ‘Puppet government’ U.S.-based Hong Kong rights campaigner Frances Hui said she had “struggled to get out of bed” due to depression after the government bypassed democratic institutions that took decades to build. “I know #JoshuaWong, Wong Ji-yuet, and others will probably spend more days in jail under this law,” Hui said via her X account, in a reference to democracy activists already imprisoned for taking part in protests in the city. “The only remaining bits of freedom in the city will soon be crumbled. Hong Kong will become just another Chinese city with a puppet govt that obeys China,” she wrote. But she added: “I know our determination for freedom & democracy will never change. One day, we will meet again.” Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party condemned the passing of the law as the “darkest day” for Hong Kong.  Police officers stand guard outside the Legislative Council in Hong Kong, March 19, 2024. (Louise Delmotte/AP) “Hong Kong is now completely shrouded in the shadow of the Chinese Communist Party’s totalitarian rule,” the party said in a statement on Wednesday, adding that the Legislative Council was now just a “rubber stamp” for Beijing. It said the new law’s more expansive interpretations of national security crimes would “completely destroy what Hong Kong has left in the way of human rights or a legal system.” The party vowed to support the international effort to help Hong Kong, safeguard democracy and counter totalitarianism. Investors will leave In Japan, Foreign Ministry Press Secretary Kobayashi Maki said the government has “grave concern” about the law, and called on the authorities to ensure that the rights of Japanese nationals and companies in Hong Kong were respected, citing close economic ties with the city. U.S. State Department spokesperson Vedant Patel said the law has the potential “to accelerate the closing of Hong Kong’s once open society.” “We’re alarmed by the sweeping and what we interpret as vaguely defined provisions laid out in their Article 23 legislation,” he told a regular news briefing in Washington on Tuesday. “We think that this was fast-tracked through the non democratically elected Legislative Council after a truncated public comment period,” he said, adding that U.S. officials are in the process of analyzing potential risks to American interests under the law. Wu Jui-ren, an associate researcher at Taiwan’s Academia Sinica, predicted that the law will spell the end of Hong Kong’s status as a global financial center. Foreign investors will leave one after another, he predicted.  Patrick Poon, human rights campaigner and visiting researcher at the University of Tokyo, said the law gives officials too much power, especially when it comes to defining what is meant by “collusion with foreign forces” or “state secrets,” or what constitutes subversion. He said anyone working for foreign organizations in the city could be at risk under the law, even if they post something online that the government doesn’t like. “It’s all entirely up to those who enforce the law to decide, in line with the practice of totalitarian governments,” Poon said. “Hong Kong has gone a step further towards being just like mainland China.” Translated by Luisetta Mudie. Edited by Malcolm Foster.

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Resistance groups kill and threaten Myanmar junta’s conscription supporters

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Rebel defense groups killed two administrators in vigilante slayings and are threatening the lives of more, according to resistance organizations. Since the country’s 2021 military coup d’etat, significant defeats for the junta have driven coup leader Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing to enact the People’s Military Service Law. Subsequent widespread panic from Myanmar’s youth has pushed them into hiding, across the Thai border in droves, with one even taking his own life. The law would require men and women between 18 and 35 to serve in the country’s military for two years and skilled professionals for longer terms.  In two regions in central Myanmar, Wundwin Township Revolution Force and Salin People’s Defense Force have taken action into their own hands. The groups admitted to gunning down two local administrators in Magway’s Salin township and Mandalay’s Wundwin township, according to the defense forces. Salin People’s Defense Force told Radio Free Asia they murdered 50-year-old Myint Htoo on Monday at 10:30 p.m. after he took a loudspeaker to the village’s streets to encourage young people in Pu Khat Taing to serve in the junta’s military. Radio Free Asia could not independently confirm details about Maung Pu’s death, but a Salin People’s Defense Force official reported that both village administrators were armed with hand-made guns.  An official of the Salin People’s Defense Force who spoke on the condition of anonymity for security reasons told RFA they plan to continue targeting administrators who support conscription. “We have made a list of local administrators, officials from the general administrative department and immigration officials who are taking advantage of political instability to threaten people and seek their own interests,” he told RFA on Wednesday. “We still have to continue to take action individually.” A representative from Wundwin Township Revolution Force said they are monitoring the behavior of local officials backing the junta. “Anyone who continues to work for the military service law according to the junta council must go the same way as Maung Pu,” he said. He agreed to speak about the group’s actions under the condition of anonymity.  RFA contacted Magway and Mandalay junta spokesmen Myo Myint and Thein Htay for comments on the deaths, but they did not respond. Nationwide threats As military recruitment begins in Yangon, five guerilla groups issued a statement on Tuesday night with warnings that they would take “severe action” against administrators supporting the law. The joint statement was issued by the Yangon Region People’s Defense Force, Yangon Urban Guerrillas, Yangon UG Association, Yangon Army and Yangon Guerrilla Army, who called the conscription system “a flagrant violation of human security.” Junta officials began their registration and recruitment operations to bolster army numbers on March 12. Still a deeply junta-controlled region, the vast majority of township and neighborhood-level officials are carrying out the orders, a Yangon resident said. “The current enumeration and enlistment are being led by the chairs of administration and administrators,” he said, asking to remain anonymous for fear of reprisals. “They have to send the lists to the township-level administration and carry it on, step by step. It looks like many of the lists have already reached their hands.” Yangon region’s junta spokesperson Htay Aung told RFA Wednesday that these procedures were not necessarily in connection with the conscription law, but merely business as usual. “Security is normal for us. Yangon is calm and peaceful as usual,” he said. “Normal procedures are being carried out in accordance with the law.” Twenty-one local administrators of Rakhine state’s Thandwe township submitted their resignations on March 18 after junta officials asked them to recruit a militia and compile lists of potential recruits. Translated by RFA Burmese. Edited by Kiana Duncan and Mike Firn. 

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Health authorities on alert as anthrax infects 14 in southern Laos

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More than a dozen people have been infected by anthrax in two districts in southern Champassak province and authorities have responded by placing restrictions on the movement and slaughtering of some farm animals, several officials told Radio Free Asia.  Provincial health officials announced on March 12 that anthrax – a rare, serious infectious disease caused by bacteria – was found in the carcasses of 97 cows, buffaloes and goats.  Three people in Champassak tested positive for anthrax last week, but that number jumped to 14 on Tuesday, according to the provincial Health Department. The 14 patients all have large, dark scabs and are receiving treatment, a health official told RFA. Authorities believe they contracted anthrax – or what’s known as “black blood disease” – by eating meat from infected cows or buffaloes.. Anthrax usually affects livestock like cattle, sheep and goats, but humans can be infected if they are exposed to contaminated animal products or animals.  According to the World Health Organization, anthrax isn’t generally considered to be contagious between humans, although there have been some cases of person-to-person transmission. The provincial health department has issued a notice asking local medical centers and authorities to report any new cases and urging anyone who develops black bumps on their body to see a doctor as soon as possible. “We’re concerned. We have stopped eating meat,” a Soukhoumma district resident told RFA. “Now, we eat only pork and fish.” Transporting and slaughtering farm animals has been temporarily banned, and people are required to properly bury their dead animals, the department said. A slaughterhouse worker told RFA that they are complying with the order and have stopped buying animals from local farmers.  An agricultural official in Pathoumphone district said authorities have stepped up surveillance efforts and have officially warned the public not to eat locally slaughtered meat. Translated by Max Avary. Edited by Matt Reed and Malcolm Foster.

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Blinken stresses ‘ironclad’ support for Philippines in South China Sea standoffs

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U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with his Philippine counterpart in Manila on Tuesday to lay the groundwork for a summit between the leaders of the United States, the Philippines and Japan next month. U.S. President Joe Biden, Philippine leader Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will meet in Washington on April 11 for trilateral talks that will focus on protecting a “free and open” Indo-Pacific region, according to the White House. Speaking at a press conference alongside Blinken, Filipino Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo said the three-way summit aimed to capitalize on “complementarities” between the countries, notably in infrastructure, critical minerals, energy and maritime security. Blinken said that collaboration on defense and economic issues would only result in all three countries becoming stronger. “So that’s what the summit is about, as well as our work together to uphold international law,” he said. He and Manalo had discussed ways of streamlining the budding trilateral alliance “to make sure that even as we have this leaders’ summit, we have mechanisms in place to make sure there are things working together day in day out.” Blinken’s visit comes at a crucial moment in bilateral relations between the two allies, who have ramped up defense cooperation amid increasing Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea, including in waters that fall within the Philippine’s exclusive economic zone. China claims nearly all of the South China Sea while dismissing the territorial claims of several Southeast Asian nations and Taiwan. “The alliance has never been stronger, but we not only have to sustain that, we have to continue to accelerate the momentum,” said Blinken, who was making his second trip to Manila as America’s top diplomat. He first visited the Philippines in August 2022, weeks after Marcos took office as president. Filipino activists protest at the Mendiola Peace Arch outside the presidential Malacañang Palace in Manila ahead of a meeting between President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on March 19, 2024. (Jojo Riñoza/BenarNews) Manalo said he had thanked Blinken for Washington’s “consistent support,” particularly in regards to Chinese harassment of Filipino supply boats. In the most recent incident, four Filipino sailors sustained minor injuries earlier this month when China Coast Guard boats intercepted a supply vessel and fired at them with water cannons. “We discussed regional issues, especially the situation in the South China Sea, and I stated that the Philippines is committed to managing disputes in accordance with our national interests, the rules-based international order and international law, especially UNCLOS,” Manalo said, referring to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. “We reaffirmed our shared view that a strong and capable Philippines would make a formidable ally for the United States.”  Blinken reiterated Washington’s “ironclad commitments” to defend the Philippines from outside aggression. He also said the two allies had shared concerns about Chinese “actions that threaten our common vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific,” including within the Philippine exclusive economic zone. “Repeated violations of international law and the rights of the Philippines – water cannons, blocking maneuvers, close shadowing, other dangerous operations – these waterways are critical to the Philippines, to its security, to its economy, but they’re also critical to the interests of the region, the United States, and the world,” Blinken said.   On Tuesday, China’s foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said the U.S. had no right to interfere in disputes between Manila and Beijing and China would take the necessary actions to defend its territory. “Military cooperation between the United States and the Philippines should not harm China’s sovereignty and maritime rights and interests in the South China Sea, let alone be used to prop up the Philippines’ illegal position,” Lin told a regular briefing, according to a report from Reuters.  Blinken is expected to meet with Marcos later on Tuesday. The Philippine leader recently returned from a trip to Germany and the Czech Republic in which he criticized Beijing’s expansive territorial claims and sought support for a free and open South China Sea.  Camille Elemia contributed reporting from Manila. BenarNews is an RFA-affiliated online news organization.

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COVID symptoms kill 5 North Korean children, schools and daycares shuttered

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At least five North Korean children have died as a resurgence of a respiratory disease believed to be COVID-19 has caused authorities to enact quarantine procedures in Ryanggang province, residents told Radio Free Asia. Residents living in the central northern province, which borders China, will have to wear masks and children will be confined to their homes, as schools and daycare centers have been temporarily shuttered. Sources said they were not sure if the lockdown applied outside of Ryanggang province. “In early March, children showing symptoms of coronavirus died one after another in Paegam county,” a resident of the province, who requested anonymity for safety reasons, told RFA Korean. “The provincial party committee took emergency quarantine measures through the quarantine center.”  According to the resident, quarantine workers that went house-to-house informed residents that three children in Paegam county died along with two more in nearby Kapsan county after exhibiting coronavirus-like symptoms. Another Ryanggang resident confirmed how the news was spread.  ‘Fever cases’ Residents, however, say they believe the situation could be much worse than reported, the first resident said. For the first two-and-a-half years of the pandemic, North Korea claimed outwardly to be completely “virus free,” but in April 2022, Pyongyang admitted the virus had spread to all areas of the country and declared a state of “maximum emergency” the following month.  During the entirety of the emergency, the government kept an official tally of “fever cases,” but its official total on global COVID-19 case tracking websites remained at or near zero. Experts said it was likely that cases could not be confirmed due to a lack of reliable testing capacity.  Prior to the emergency, when patients in North Korean hospitals with COVID symptoms died, the hospital would quickly cremate the bodies so that they could not be tested for the disease, then attributed the deaths to other causes. Though authorities acknowledge that five children have died, residents think that the response points to many more casualties, as daycare centers, kindergartens and schools will be closed for a 10-day period, and everyone will be required to wear masks or face punishment, the resident said. He said that the quarantine center in the city of Hyesan ordered all children to be kept at home as much as possible because they are at greater risk than adults. “Some are complaining about how children are supposed to be kept indoors when the adults have to do whatever it takes to make a living and find food,” the resident said. “On the other hand, some others agree that the temporary school closure is the best option in the absence of medicine.” The quarantine center also promoted personal hygiene practices when it went house-to-house, the second Ryanggang resident told RFA on condition of anonymity to speak freely.  “The quarantine workers warned of the seriousness of the situation and they also shared the news that several children infected with the coronavirus had died in Paegam and Kapsan counties,” she said. “There are many patients around me who are coughing and suffering from high fevers, similar to coronavirus symptoms.” The second resident said things were just as bad now as they were during the pandemic.  At that time, the border with China was closed and trade had been suspended, so there were shortages of everything. Additionally, lockdowns at home meant that people could not go out to earn money to support themselves. “There is no money now, just like during the big outbreak,” she said. “And even if you have money it is difficult to get medicine.” Translated by Claire S. Lee. Edited by Eugene Whong.

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‘Piles of corpses’ left after Myanmar junta attacks village

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A junta aerial bombardment killed and injured dozens in western Myanmar, locals told Radio Free Asia.  Most residents in Thar Dar, a predominantly Rohingya village in Myanmar’s Rakhine state, were sleeping when a fighter jet dropped a bomb around 1 a.m. Friday, a local said.  “Twenty-three people died on the spot and more than 30 were injured. There are piles of corpses in the village,” said the man who didn’t want to be named for safety reasons. “Children and elderly are among the dead, covered with tarpaulin and everything. Most of those who died and were injured lost their limbs.” Thar Dar village, nearly five kilometers (three miles) north of Minbya city, was captured by the Arakan Army on Feb. 26. The rebel group has also seized six other townships in Rakhine state, including most recently Kyaukphyu, where a large Chinese mega-project is located. The army also controls Pauktaw township in neighboring Chin state to the north. While the Arakan Army has announced its intentions to control the state’s capital of Sittwe, junta troops have focused their resources on both small and large-scale attacks against civilians, which villagers have labeled a pattern of indiscriminate killings. Thar Dar village has little more than 300 houses and a population of under 2,000, residents said. While there was no battle in the area to warrant an attack, residents told RFA the village had become a brief refuge for Rohingya fleeing nearby Sin Gyi Pyin village after it was also targeted. Rakhine state has also seen other attacks on the ethnically persecuted group, including an attack that killed an entire Rohingya family in Sittwe.  RFA contacted Rakhine state’s junta spokesperson U Hla Thein for more information on Thar Dar’s aerial bombardment, but he did not pick up the phone. Junta columns regularly shell and drop bombs on villages in Minbya, Mrauk-U, Pauktaw and Ponnagyun townships where they have already lost control, residents said.  As of March 3, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reported more than 170 civilians had been killed and over 400 injured since the fighting in Rakhine state began again on Nov. 11, 2023. Translated by RFA Burmese. Edited by Kiana Duncan and Mike Firn. 

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Vietnam’s next leader faces crunch time with economy, demographics

Editor014 mins

January brought a fresh gust of rumors about the whereabouts of Nguyen Phu Trong, the Communist Party of Vietnam general secretary. He hadn’t been seen in public for a few weeks and failed to meet with the visiting president of Indonesia, leading some commentators to speculate that his health was deteriorating once again.  We had been here in 2019 when it was rumored – accurately, it turned out – that Trong had suffered a stroke while on a visit down south. This time around, Trong showed up again rather quickly, delivering a speech to the National Assembly on January 15. But rumors of the 79 year-old’s failing health are a reminder of his and the country’s frailty.   Given that party chiefs tend to rule for two five-year terms, we can assume that the next general-secretary, if voted in at the next Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) National Congress in 2026 and if Trong does actually retire then, will rule until 2036.  It is not overly dramatic to say that the next party chief will govern during the most consequential decade of Vietnam’s development.  Women work at the Hung Viet garment export factory in Hung Yen province, Vietnam, Dec. 30, 2020. (Kham/Reuters) Not least, that person  is likely to enter office facing even more uncertain world politics.  One uncertainty is China, whose economy is in a terrible state and which is set to experience perhaps the worst demographic crisis of any country in known history.  The other is a retreating America. The great debate in the United States right now is whether to maintain its post-1945 interest in world affairs or to descend into nationalism and protectionism. If Washington chooses the latter – and Donald Trump’s possible re-election later this year would be an indication of that – the globalization we’ve known since 1945 that has depended on U.S. security guarantees, not least to keep the seas safe for world trade, could collapse.  Vietnam has arguably been one of the biggest beneficiaries of globalization – perhaps second only to China in recent decades. More to the point, China and the United States combined account for 46 percent of Vietnam’s exports and 40 percent of its imports.  Demographic time bomb Hanoi can do little to rectify China’s troubled economy or dispel America’s isolationist tendencies. But it can clean its own house.  The most existential concern, as framed by a headline in the state-run press last year, is its “demographic time bomb.” Thailand is set to lose 10 million people of working age by 2050, about a quarter of its current workforce. China, based on conservative estimates, will lose 217 million workers, down from 984 million today.  Vietnam, thanks to its citizens having so many children in the 1990s, will only see its working-age population dip by around 253,000 people by 2050, from 67.6 million now – a 0.3 percent fall. The workforce will have passed its peak by the mid-2030s.   Instead, Vietnam appears set to suffer the problem of too many retirees. Vietnam became an “aging” society in 2011, when 7 percent of its population was aged over 65. It will become an “aged” society, when that demographic is more than 14 percent of the population, in 2034.  Elderly people exercise at a public park in Hanoi, Oct. 9, 2018. (Kham/Reuters) Vietnam will be the fourth “aged” society in Southeast Asia, after Singapore, Thailand and Brunei. The percentage of people over 65, those who don’t work and are net extractors of state money, will double between now and 2050, from 10 percent to 20 percent.  In fact, people over 60 will go from 14.7 to 26.5 percent of the population over this timeframe. That’s the figure to bear in mind since Vietnam’s retirement age for men will be 62 in 2028 and 60 for women in 2035.  Moreover, the proportion of retirees will probably be higher than 26 percent of the population since women, who retire earlier, outnumber men by the time they’re 60 years old. So it’s possible that Vietnam is looking at around a fifth of its population in retirement by 2030 and nearly a third by 2050.  Unlike Thailand and China, whose demographic future is dire, more so than some analysts think, Vietnam won’t see a declining workforce at the same time as an increase in retirees, so it won’t be left trying to scrape less money from fewer workers for greater welfare payments to more retirees.  However, Vietnam is starting from a lower wealth base. If its GDP per capita doubles between now and 2034, it would still be on par with Thailand’s GDP per capita today. If it triples, it will be on par with today’s Malaysia, which won’t become “aged” until 2042.  Tough decisions won’t wait Vietnam risks becoming old before it becomes rich, unless, that is, it can turbocharge its economy over the coming decade and half. According to the World Bank, Vietnam has until 2042 before its “demographic window of opportunity will close.”  The state will have to find vastly more money for its retirees, sapping funds that could be invested in infrastructure and education.  Spending on education has already fallen from around 18 percent of government expenditure in the early 2010s to around 15 percent. Infrastructure spending has been criminally misused. Just look at the badly managed Ho Chi Minh City metro project.  Currently, average social insurance payments are just $240 per month, a little over two-thirds of workers’ average income. A lengthy World Bank report noted that “Countries with old-age dependency ratios equal to Vietnam’s projected level in 2035 typically spend 8-9 percent of GDP on public pensions, well above the 2-3 percent that Vietnam has spent over the past decade”.  Commuters fill the street during morning rush hour in Ho Chi Minh City, Jan. 12, 2024. (Jae C. Hong/AP) By today’s GDP, that means the Vietnamese state will need to find something in the range of $18-21 billion annually just for pensions within a decade. That’s not counting the additional…

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