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Category: Russia
China urges ‘fair’ investigation into Baltic pipeline damage
China has said it will stand “ready to provide necessary assistance” to the investigation into Finland’s claims a Hong Kong vessel may have damaged a natural gas pipeline. Finnish police said on Tuesday the Balticconnector pipeline between Finland and Estonia was likely damaged by an anchor as “on the seabed, a 1.5 to 4 meter-wide dragging trail is seen to lead to the point of damage in the gas pipeline.” The investigators said they found the anchor just a few meters from the gas pipeline damage point. They said the anchor may have belonged to the Chinese container vessel Newnew Polar Bear which was sailing through the area at around 1:20 a.m. local time on Oct. 8, 2023 when the pipeline was reported damaged. The police focused their suspicion on the ship as until now, they “could not visually confirm that both front anchors of the vessel were in their place.” Newnew Polar Bear is a Chinese-owned and Hong Kong-registered commercial ship. The vessel “was contacted several times, but they were not willing to cooperate,” they said, adding that help is needed from the Chinese authorities for the investigation to continue. A graphic obtained by Reuters on October 13, 2023, shows where the Balticconnector pipeline between Finland and Estonia was damaged on October 8, by an unknown reason. Credit: NORSAR/Handout via Reuters In Beijing, a Foreign Ministry spokesperson said China maintains “unimpeded communication with parties including Finland” over the incident, which is still under investigation, and “stands ready to provide necessary assistance in accordance with international law.” Mao Ning told reporters on Wednesday that the Chinese government hopes “relevant parties will follow the principles of being objective, fair, just and professional and find out what happened soon.” Earlier this week, Mao said the Chinese vessel was “sailing through relevant waters normally when the incident occurred. Due to the rather bad conditions at sea, it didn’t detect anything abnormal.” Finland’s National Bureau of Investigation has published a photo of the broken anchor that investigators retrieved from the seabed. The next step would be to confirm that it came from the Chinese container vessel and determine if the damage was an accident or intentional, said Carl Schuster, a retired U.S. Navy captain turned maritime analyst. “If evidence of the Newnew Polar Bear’s involvement surfaces, then the captain will try to claim it was an accident but that is not likely unless the evidence is conclusive,” Schuster told RFA. Cable cutting The Estonian government has said it is investigating two incidents that might also be linked to the Newnew Polar Bear, in which a telecoms cable connecting Finland and Estonia and another between Sweden and Estonia, were damaged. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas was quoted in the domestic media as saying that there are reasons to believe that the three incidents are related, but “it is too early to reveal sensitive information.” Some observers recall that Chinese ships were accused of damaging communications cables before. In April, Taiwan’s National Communications Commission blamed two Chinese ships for cutting two undersea internet cables connecting Taiwan island and the outlying islands of Matsu, leading to 50 days of no, or very limited internet access, there. The same cables have been damaged 27 times since 2017 by Chinese sand dredging and fishing boats, some cut by ships’ anchors, Taiwanese authorities said. RFA analyzed automatic identification system data provided by ship-tracking website MarineTraffic and found that at around 1:00 a.m. on Oct. 8, the Newnew Polar Bear was approaching the site of the Balticconnector pipeline. During the course of one hour or so, the Newnew Polar Bear slowed down to under 11 knots before picking up again, but did not stop. Besides the Chinese ship, a Russian flag bearer – the nuclear-powered cargo ship Sevmorput – was also seen at the scene, sailing at a higher speed. Norwegian seismology institute NORSAR reported blast-like waves near the pipeline at the time. What does Russia say? NewNew Polar Bear was renamed and registered in Hong Kong in June. Immediately prior to this, the ship sailed under the name Baltic Fulmar flying the Cypriot flag. Newnew Polar Bear and four other ships owned by China’s Hainan Yangpu Newnew Shipping Co. began transporting cargo between Russia and China using the Northern Sea Route along Russia’s Arctic coast in July. The route was previously not operational because of the ice. The Newnew Polar Bear made a port call in Baltiysk, Russia, on Oct. 6. Credit: Anton Alikhanov’s Telegram Russian state nuclear corporation Rosatom is believed to assist the Chinese shipping line with nuclear-powered icebreakers, reducing the transit time between Russia’s St Petersburg and China’s Shanghai to less than a month, compared to 45-50 days if using the route through the Suez Canal. Sevmorput is part of the Rosatom-owned nuclear icebreaker fleet, the only such fleet in the world. The Northern Sea Route is one of the strategic priorities of cooperation between the Russians and the Chinese, and Newnew Polar Bear reflects this close collaboration. But Russian netizens have posted photos of the vessel flying the Russian flag at port calls, such as on Oct. 6 in Baltiysk, Kaliningrad’s region. This left watchers puzzled. “It is not legal under international law for the ship to fly a Russian flag unless its registration was changed to Russia. There is no evidence it has changed its registration,” said maritime analyst Carl Schuster. “A commercial vessel must fly the flag of its country of registration although it may have a logo of its country of ownership painted on its superstructure,” he added, So far, as the suspicion is not directed at Russia, Russian official channels have yet to comment on the case. Yet on social media platforms, Russian analysts and observers have been talking about what they call “the West attempting to block traffic from China to Russia and Europe.” “Perhaps the West understands that this traffic can increase massively in the near future – both from the Baltic and along the Northern Sea Route,” one…
Southeast Asia’s mounting food insecurity
According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), global rice prices in August were 31% higher than the previous year, and at a 15-year high, which has left the inflation-sensitive governments of Southeast Asia scrambling for answers. Net rice importers such as populous Indonesia and the Philippines and net exporters like Thailand alike are wrestling with a surge in prices of the staple, driven by five underlying weather and international factors. First, states are confronted by declining agricultural output due to an acute El Niño effect this year, which has caused hotter than average temperatures across Southeast Asia, and a decrease in overall rainfall. In parts of the region, this also resulted in above average haze pollution caused by wildfires, in addition to annual haze generated by crop burning. Across the board, agricultural yields have been down, but rice, which is dependent on monsoon rains, has been particularly vulnerable in most countries. A worker rakes wheat in a granary on a private farm in Zhurivka, Kyiv region, Ukraine, Aug. 10, 2023. Credit: Efrem Lukatsky/AP Second, the ongoing war in Ukraine and Russia’s unilateral withdrawal from the July 2022 Black Sea Grain Initiative has created dislocations in global supplies of wheat, cereals, and cooking oil. Before Russia pulled out, 32 million tons of grain were exported, mostly to the developing world. Although successful Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s Black Sea fleet have allowed some ships to continue exports, without a firm agreement in place, this could be temporary. Southeast Asian states are all highly dependent on wheat imports and Ukraine is the 7th largest producer, with an annual production of 33 million tons. Its exports comprise 10% of global supplies. Third, as a result of El Niño-caused heat wave and food shortages, in August 2023, India announced curbs on rice exports. India is the largest exporter of rice in the world, accounting for 40% of global supply. India’s exports account for 11% of the global rice supply. Fourth, for the lower Mekong River states, Cambodia and Vietnam, rainfall shortfalls due to El Niño have been exacerbated by China’s retention of record amounts of water at their cascade of 11 upriver dams, plunging water levels in the river to an all time low. Fifth, declines in rice yields in the net-exporting states, such as Thailand and Vietnam, have led to higher prices and hoarding. Net importers The most immediate impact will be felt by the net importers: Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia. Between January and August, Indonesia imported 1.6 million tons of rice – more than triple the 429,000 million tons imported in 2022. Rice prices are now 16% higher year-on-year, a rise that prompted President Joko Widodo last month to order the release of stocks from BULOG, the strategic rice reserve, to try to keep a lid on inflation. In April, Jakarta contracted to import a total of 2.3 million metric tons of rice to shore up national stocks. In the Philippines, estimates that rice production would fall by 1.8% in 2023 caused rice prices to hit a record high in September. Workers unload rice imported from Vietnam by the Indonesian Logistics Bureau at the port of Malahayati, in Indonesia’s Aceh province, Oct. 11, 2023. Credit: Chaideer Mahyuddin/AFP Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who is concurrently the Secretary of Agriculture, imposed price caps last month of 41 and 45 pesos (US$0.72 and US$0.79) per kilogram (2.2 pounds) for average and well-milled rice, respectively. As a candidate, Marcos had pledged to bring the price of rice down to 20 pesos per kilogram. The Philippines imported a record 3.9 million metric tons in 2022-23. In September, Marcos signed a five-year purchase agreement with Vietnam, which supplied 90% of Philippine imports in 2022. In early October, Marcos lifted the rice cap, promising a slew of other measures to control prices, which remain high. Domestic rice production in Malaysia only satisfies 70% of demand, and yields declined in 2023 due to excessive heat. The government has imposed a price cap of 26 ringgit (US#5.50) per 10 kilograms (22 pounds) for domestically produced rice. Nonetheless, prices have been surging and Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has threatened to take legal action against hoarders. In September 2023, the government announced a 36% increase in rice imports. This month, the government announced that restaurants could purchase imported rice RM160 ($34) per kilogram, half the normal wholesale price. Anwar, who is also the country’s finance minister, has announced some 400 million ringgit ($84.72 million) in subsidies to purchase imported rice for government use, while the Minister of Agriculture imposed rice price caps in the important vote banks of Sabah and Sarawak. Net exporters Even the net exporters have seen instability in their rice markets. As the second largest exporter in the world, accounting for 15% of exports, Thailand has benefitted from surging rice prices. The announcement of Indian curbs led to a 20% spike in Thai rice prices. Thai rice peaked at $650 a ton in August, nearly 50% higher than a year earlier. Nonetheless, the country has been hit by El Niño, with rainfall down 18%. The Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives estimates rice production will decline by 3-6% in 2023-24, down to 25.8 million tons, while its reservoirs were at 54% capacity. Thailand usually exports half of its rice harvest. But because of soaring prices, there’s been an increase in domestic hoarding. This year Thailand is expected to export just under 9 million tons. Vietnam, the third largest exporter in the world, accounting for 14% percent of global exports, expects to harvest 43 million tons in 2023. In 2022, Vietnam exported 7.1 tons, a ten-year high. This year the goal is to export 7.8 million tons, a 10 percent increase over 2022. Vietnam has already exported 5 million tons in the first seven months of the year, an 18% year-on-year increase. Thus far, Vietnam is benefitting from surging prices, with a 30-35% increase in value in exports. But while things are good for now, diminished rainfall,…
Taiwanese AI taken down after it repeats Chinese government line
A top-level research institute in the democratic island of Taiwan has withdrawn a Chinese-language AI chat program after it started spouting Chinese government propaganda, according to multiple media reports. A researcher at Taiwan’s Academia Sinica posted a beta version of their newly developed CKIP-Llama-2-7b chat AI, but members of the public who asked it questions soon started getting some disturbing answers to basic questions. Asked its nationality, the chat program replied that it was “Chinese,” an identity not shared by the majority of Taiwan’s 23 million people because it suggests one is from the mainland. Asked who the national leader was, it answered “Xi Jinping,” the leader of China’s Communist Party who has vowed to force Taiwan to unify with China – by force, if necessary. The majority of Taiwanese don’t identify as Chinese, enjoy living in a democratic and pluralistic society, and have no wish to submit to authoritarian rule from Beijing, according to multiple opinion polls in recent years. “Academia Sinica said today that the content produced by the model was unexpected, and this is an area that needs to be improved in the future,” the island’s Central News Agency reported. “The beta version has been taken down for the time being,” it said. Democratic Progressive Party President Tsai Ing-wen swept to a landslide victory in 2020 on a platform of defending the island’s freedoms and democratic way of life from China’s expanding territorial ambitions, spurred on in part by the crackdown on the 2019 protest movement in Hong Kong. While there are concerns over China’s military saber-rattling, the prospect of too much rapprochement with China has sparked large protests in Taiwan, including the Sunflower Movement that occupied government buildings in 2014, and Tsai vowed in a National Day speech on Tuesday that the Taiwanese people will be a “democratic and free people for generations to come.” But according to CKIP-Llama-2-7b, “National Day” is Oct. 1 – the date of the 1949 founding of the People’s Republic of China, which has never ruled Taiwan. According to the Taiwan AI, “National Day” is Oct. 1 – the date of the 1949 founding of the People’s Republic of China, which has never ruled Taiwan. People [pictured] attend a flag-raising ceremony to mark China’s National Day at Tiananmen Square in Beijing on October 1, 2023. Credit: Jade Gao/AFP The chat program, which was partly based on the commercial open source model Llama-2-7b and Atom-7b, had some interesting opinions about its own provenance, too. Asked who created it, the program replied: “I was jointly developed by the Natural Language Processing Laboratory of Fudan University and the Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Laboratory. My birthday is 2023.” “My nationality is Chinese, my place of residence is the Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Laboratory Server Set, and I can speak Chinese and English,” it said. Asked to name the national anthem, it replied “The March of the Volunteers” – China’s communist anthem – instead of “The Three Principles of the People,” Taiwan’s anthem first adopted by the government of the 1911 Republic of China that fled to the island before the People’s Republic of China was established. Ruling party lawmaker Fan Yun commented on Facebook that the Taiwanese AI gaffe was “an information security issue and an issue of cognitive warfare.” The program was removed from public view on Oct. 9, according to the Central News Agency. Academia Sinica President James Liao said the program had been put online as a way to crowd-source its testing, mainly to save time. “This is a researcher who was keen to speed things up, so, in the spirit of open source software, he put out a program that hadn’t been fully tested yet and asked everyone to join in and test it with him,” Liao said. “It produced some questionable results.” Differences in the writing systems of the mainland and Taiwan were also an obstacle for the project. In 1956, the PRC began simplifying Chinese characters in a bid to increase literacy, and over the years, about 2,000 characters have been simplified. The characters remain unsimplified in Taiwan, and are known as “traditional Chinese” characters. Liao said the researcher had simply converted the data for simplified Chinese into traditional Chinese for CKIP-Llama-2-7b . He said Academia Sinica had learned from the incident that the traditional Chinese character data is important in its own right, and vowed to set up an audit mechanism to avoid similar issues in future, Central News Agency reported. Information technology expert Kun-Lin Hsieh commented on social media: “Academia Sinica’s AI has gone off the rails!” But he went on to explain that the chat program had been trained on an online data set provided by the Beijing-based Stardust AI and other dialogue training materials in the simplified Chinese characters, rather than in traditional characters. Information technology news service iThome said it is crucial to have “large language model” datasets that can speak in a way that is appropriate to the locality in which they are made. It quoted Taiwanese AI expert Tsai Ming-shun as calling on the Taiwanese government to take the opportunity to invest more resources in software development, especially large language models and data sets, to boost the development of homegrown AI. In April, China issued a new set of rules requiring AI chat programs developed in the country to stick to the ruling Communist Party line, requiring their responses not to make “subversive” statements or deliver “content that may disrupt economic and social order.” Translated by Luisetta Mudie. Edited by Eugene Whong.
‘Eliticide’ as China jails Uyghur intellectuals to erase culture
Over a fortnight, a Uyghur folklorist missing since 2017 was revealed to be serving a life prison for “separatism,” while another Uyghur scholar who had vanished into Chinese custody years earlier appeared on shortlists and oddsmakers picks for the 2023 Nobel Peace Prize. The cases of ethnographer Rahile Dawut, whose life conviction in December 2018 was uncovered by a U.S. NGO only last month, and economist Ilham Tohti, put away for life on similar charges in 2014, share key similarities that highlight the personal and family tragedies behind China’s relentless assimilation policies in the northwestern Xinjiang region. Both Dawut, who was born in 1966, and the 53-year-old Tohti built their academic careers inside the Chinese system, teaching at prestigious universities and releasing their work through major state publishing houses. The two scholars collaborated with and were respected as authorities by their Chinese and international peers. Uyghur professor Rahile Dawut talks with a man in northwestern China’s Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region in an undated photo. Photo courtesy of Akide Polat/Freemymom.org Dawut created and directed the Xinjiang University ‘s Minorities Folklore Research Center and wrote dozens of articles in international journals and a number of books on the region and its culture. An economist at the Central University for Nationalities in Beijing, Tohti ran the Uyghur Online website, set up in 2006, which drew attention to the discrimination facing Uyghurs under Beijing’s rule over Xinjiang and its increasingly restrictive religious and language policies. The families of Dawut and Tohti share the common fate of not having heard anything from their jailed loved once since 2017, the year that China’s harsh crackdown in Xinjiang went into overdrive, with the establishment of a network of internment camps for Uyghurs, Kazakhs and other Turkic minorities. “My first reaction was that I couldn’t believe it, I couldn’t believe it at all,” Dawut’s U.S.-based daughter, Akide Polat, told Radio Free Asia last month. “None of my mother’s work, nor the way she went about it, nor anything in her personal life had anything to do with ‘endangering state security,’” she said of the charges on which her mother was convicted. ‘No intellectual resistance’ The Dui Hua Foundation, which revealed Dawut’s life sentence, noted estimates of as many as several hundred Uyghur intellectuals who have been detained, arrested, and imprisoned since 2016. RFA Uyghur has documented scores of disappearances and detentions of Uyghur writers, academics, artists and musicians in recent years. “What we’ve seen inside the Uyghur region of China is what is often termed ‘eliticide,’” said Sean Roberts, a Central Asia expert at The George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs in Washington, D.C. “There’s a particular focus on the intellectual elites, many of whom were working at state institutions, have been loyal to the state, did not did not present any sort of real resistance. Their only crime was basically maintaining the idea of a Uyghur nation and identity,” he told RFA Uyghur. Akida Polat holds a photo of her mother, imprisoned Uyghur folklore expert Rahile Duwat. Credit: X/@Kuzzat_Altay Roberts said eliticide “is often identified as occurring at the beginning of a genocide, where there’s an attempt to get rid of the entire political, economic and intellectual elite to ensure that there is no intellectual resistance to the erasure of a people and their identity.” In early 2021, after years of cumulative reports on the internment camp system in Xinjiang, the United Nations, the United States, and the legislatures of several European countries, officially branded the treatment of Uyghurs as genocide or crimes against humanity. China has angrily rejected the genocide charges, arguing that the “reeducation camps” were a necessary tool to fight religious extremism and terrorism, in reaction to sporadic terrorist attacks that Uyghurs say are fueled by years of government oppression. Beijing has also waged an information counterattack, with a global media influence campaign that spreads Chinese state media content to countries in Asia and beyond, invites diplomats and journalists from China-friendly countries on staged tours of Xinjiang and promotes pro-China social media influencers. Awareness-raising on genocide Last month, the pushback saw Chinese diplomats pressuring fellow United Nations member states not to attend a panel on human rights abuses in Xinjiang sponsored by a think tank and two rights groups on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York. Tohti, who has been nominated for the Norwegian Nobel Committee’s Peace Prize since 2020, was listed by the U.S. news outlet Time as one of top three favorites to win the medal this year, following Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and jailed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. Tohti was given higher odds on many of London’s famed betting sites of winning the prize than the recipient, jailed Iranian activist Narges Mohammadi. “There are many human rights issues around the world that are equally as important as the suffering that the Uyghurs are going through, but the international status and power of the perpetrators of these human rights abuses aren’t considered equal,” said Jewher Ilham, Tohti’s daughter. “The Chinese government is known to have a much more powerful political and economic influence than the Iranian government in the western world,” she told RFA Uyghur. Jewher Ilham holds a photo of her father, Ilham Tohti, during the Sakharov Prize ceremony at the European Parliament, in Strasbourg, France, Dec. 18, 2019. Credit: AP Photo It is not clear that that China would be moved by a Nobel Prize to release Tohti or moderate policies in Xinjiang, where Communist Party chief Xi Jinping appears to be doubling down on draconian security measures and policies to suppress Uyghur culture. Beijing lashed out at the Nobel Committee and imposed trade sanctions on Norway after the Nobel 2010 went to Chinese dissident writer Liu Xiaobo. With Liu in jail, the Chinese capital Beijing won the right in 2015 to host the Winter Olympics, and Beijing largely shrugged off the global outcry when in 2017, Liu became the first Nobel laureate to die in jail since German journalist and Nazi opponent…
Thousands flee Sagaing region townships after Myanmar junta raids
Almost 5,000 people have fled their homes after two days of raids on villages in Sagaing region’s Salingyi township, locals told RFA on Thursday. Troops took several people with them to use as human shields, according to an organization helping victims of the conflict. The junta sent in a Russian-made attack helicopter on Wednesday morning, targeting villages between Salingyi and Yinmarbin townships. On Thursday morning, hundreds of troops stormed Let Taung Gyi village in Pale township. Local People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) had planted landmines near the entrance of the village but it’s not known whether the junta troops suffered any casualties. They arrested people suspected of planting the mines after entering the village, according to a local who wished to remain anonymous for fear of reprisals. “About 10 residents were arrested while they were fleeing to safety from Let Taung Gyi village this morning,” the resident said, adding that the identities of those arrested are not yet known. “The column [of soldiers] was in a convoy and moving slowly from one village to another. It had been going for a long time.” The local said the convoy contained around 300 soldiers and 17 military vehicles that opened fire on villages along the route while a helicopter strafed villages in Salingyi and Yinmarbin townships, according to an aid worker who also asked not to be named for safety reasons. “Helicopters shot at two villages,” they said. “The Mi-35 fired along both sides of the village road because [the junta] were worried PDFs would come along the road.” Around 5,000 residents of at least five villages fled their homes ahead of the raids, said the aid worker. Calls to Sagaing region’s junta spokesperson Sai Naing Naing Kyaw by RFA went unanswered Thursday. Translated by RFA Burmese. Edited by Mike Firn.
Myanmar guerrilla group says it shot junta conspirator in Yangon
A man accused of working with Myanmar’s ruling junta has been shot in the head in central Yangon, a local guerilla group said. The Urban Owls released a statement shortly after Monday’s shooting claiming responsibility for the attack, saying that businessman Nyan Lwin Aung was targeted for his close relationships with military leaders. They said the man accompanied junta leader Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing on his trip to Russia last year and met with Russian Defense Ministry officials. Nyan Lwin Aung also bought weapons for the junta, the group claimed. He was shot in the head at an intersection in Latha township, residents told Radio Free Asia on Tuesday. “It happened at around 10 p.m. last night,” said one local, asking to be kept anonymous for fear of reprisals. “He was sent to the Yangon General Hospital. A large number of junta troops arrived with military vans and investigated 17th to 19th Street after the shooting incident.” Police and soldiers began searching civilians along the busy Shwedagon Pagoda Road after the shooting, the local said. Another Latha resident said Nyan Lwin Aung was shot at close range in his left temple and was sent to Yangon General Hospital. The hospital’s emergency department confirmed to RFA Burmese that Nyan Lwin Aung arrived at the hospital Monday night with a serious wound. One surgeon said he was in a critical condition and being treated in the intensive care unit. Yangon division’s junta spokesperson and regional attorney general Htay Aung had not responded to RFA at the time of publication. Monday’s statement by the Urban Owls added that Nyan Lwin Aung had also worked for the Ministry of the Interior, installing CCTV facial recognition cameras. It said he had a company in Myanmar with business subsidiaries in Thailand, Russia, China, and the United Arab Emirates under the name North Gate Engineering and Technology. RFA has yet to confirm the group’s claims. When a reporter called North Gate’s Yangon office an employee said he was not authorized to comment. The guerilla group has carried out a number of killings, claiming responsibility for the death of Ye Khine, security chief of the Yangon International Airport, as well as Minn Tayzar Nyunt Tin, a junta-affiliated lawyer accused of money laundering. Translated by RFA Burmese. Edited by Mike Firn.
South Korea Presidents clash over North Korea policy
Five years ago, when leaders of the two Koreas exchanged a historic handshake in Pyongyang, the Korean people looked on with hope, wishing that this masterpiece of diplomacy may finally put an official end to the seven-decade-long war on the peninsula. But as time surges forward, the once-celebrated inter-Korean agreement stands vulnerable, overshadowed by North Korea’s escalating nuclear threats, and its leader, Kim Jong Un reinforcing ties with his fellow authoritarian leader Vladimir Putin of Russia. Now, South Korea grapples with a growing divide on whether to uphold that deal. The debate is set to intensify on the back of former South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s attendance of the commemorative event of the fifth anniversary of the September 19 Pyongyang Joint Declaration in Seoul on Tuesday. “The [current] government and the ruling party have expressed their intentions to reconsider or possibly scrap the military agreement,” Moon said at the event. “However, it’s crucial to note that the inter-Korean military agreement has been instrumental in preventing military confrontations between the two Koreas.” Moon’s comments are largely seen as a warning against the administration of President Yoon Suk Yeol for its hardline policy on North Korea. “It would be irresponsible to remove the last safety pin in place,” Moon added. “As relations between the two Koreas deteriorate and military tensions escalate, it’s imperative for both sides to uphold the agreement.” His remarks may potentially improve public opinion of South Korea’s progressives before the general election in April. Should that happen, it would conversely work against Yoon’s hardline policy on Pyongyang. Under the 2018 inter-Korean military deal, the two Koreas agreed to “end hostility” and to “take substantial steps to make the Korean Peninsula a permanent peace zone.” “Military accords should be honored and respected to the fullest extent to ensure dialogue continues and to prevent dire consequences,” Moon said. The former president was supported by key officials from his administration – his foreign minister Kang Kyung-wha and unification minister Kim Yeon-chul at the event. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un with South Korean President Moon Jae-in inside the Peace House at the border village of Panmunjom in Demilitarized Zone, South Korea on April 27, 2018. (Credit: AP) South Korea’s progressives see consistent engagement with North Korea as a potential catalyst for altering Pyongyang’s hostile behavior and its actions of violating human rights. They believe that integrating North Korea into the international stage would foster transparency, open avenues for dialogue, and gradually shift the North’s stance towards global norms and values. Conservatives, on the other hand, have long protested against what it defined as far-fetched engagement, saying that excessive aid to North Korea despite its continued provocations would only foster its nuclear ambitions. The conversative Yoon administration is thus adopting a hawkish policy on North Korea, aimed at pressing Pyongyang to forfeit its nuclear weapons. The ongoing debate is set to gain its momentum, as Yoon’s Defense Minister nominee Shin Won-sik has opined about his inclination to scrap the inter-Korean military deal last week. Some analysts consider the deal invalid, with North Korea returning to its brinkmanship diplomacy after its high-stakes summit with the United States collapsed in Hanoi February 2019. For instance, in November 2019, North Korea fired coastal artillery near the maritime buffer around the border island of Changlin-do. In May 2020, North Korea fired gunshots towards a South Korean guard post at the inter-Korean border, and in September 2020, a South Korean civilian was shot dead at the maritime border by the North and subsequently incinerated. Further complicating matters is North Korea’s amplified nuclear and missile threats. The threats are expected to further intensify with Putin vowing to aid North Korea in developing its satellite technology. Rocket technology can be used for both launching satellites and missiles. For that reason, the UN bans North Korea from launching a ballistic rocket, even if it claims to be a satellite launch. South Korea’s internal disagreement surrounding its North North Korea policy could potentially undermine that of the allies. The lack of a unified stance – be it hardline or dovish policy – risks disabling Seoul and Washington to form a coherent strategy that could be implemented in the long-term. Experts, however, noted that the main reason for this policy inconsistency is due to Kim Jong Un’s altered stance on his diplomacy after the fallout in Hanoi in 2019. “North Korean inconsistency is what leads to South Korea having to change its policy. If Pyongyang had continued to engage post-Hanoi summit, I think that both, Moon first, and Yoon now would have probably sought to try to accommodate this. Alas, this hasn’t been the case,” said Ramon Pacheco Pardo, Professor of International Relations at King’s College London and the KF-VUB Korea Chair at the Brussels School of Governance of Vrije Universiteit Brussel. “Likewise, I think that it was domestic instability in North Korea in the late 2000s, due to Kim Jong Il’s health condition, and then the transition process to Kim Jong Un, [being] the main reason behind the end of the inter-Korean engagement. So liberals and conservatives may not fully agree on how to approach North Korea, but I actually think that Pyongyang is the main reason why Seoul changes its policy.” Edited by Elaine Chan and Taejun Kang.
Kim-Putin military cooperation may pose potential setback for China
Updated Sept. 15, 2023, 5:35 a.m. ET North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian leader Vladimir Putin inspected a fighter jet production facility in Russia’s Far East on Friday while the United States allies prepare joint countermeasures in response to safeguarding the security in both Asia and Europe. Kim’s high-profile visit this week has pressured the allies to intensify their multilateral security cooperation in the region, a development which experts noted, may see China emerging as the most disadvantaged nation. The North Korean leader went to the Far Eastern Russian city of Komsomolsk-on-Amur early on Friday and inspected the Yuri Gagarin Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aircraft Plant (KnAAZ), according to Russia’s official news agency Tass. “A red carpet was unfurled for the top-ranking guest,” Tass said. “In accordance with the Russian tradition for special guests, Kim was welcomed with bread and salt.” KnAAZ is at the heart of Russia’s fighter jet production, which produces advanced warplanes such as its fifth generation jets: the Su-35 and Su-57. Kim’s visit to Russia’s core defense facility came after both sides agreed on Wednesday to boost their military cooperation that would significantly aid their battle against the West. The core of the cooperation is most likely to be Russia’s weapons technology transfer in exchange for North Korea’s conventional ammunition. As the speculation continues to rise, North Korea has reportedly begun providing ammunition to Russia in aiding its Ukraine aggression, according to a report from the New Voice of Ukraine, the country’s one of the largest news outlets, on Thursday. Putin has already received “122mm and 152mm artillery shells as well as Grad rockets from North Korea,” the New Voice of Ukraine claimed, quoting the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov. The cementing of such a trade deal puts the U.S. at risk in its attempt to curb Russia’s aggression on Ukraine, potentially prolonging the war, and containing North Korea’s nuclear pursuits to enhance nuclear capabilities. In response, the U.S., South Korea and Japan are reinforcing security cooperation to confront the latest development that could threaten their interests. Top security aides of the three – the U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, South Korea’s National Security Office Director Cho Tae-yong and Japan’s National Security Secretariat Secretary General Akiba Takeo – vowed to further consolidate their ties to jointly counter the possible Moscow-Pyongyang military cooperation. “The three NSAs reaffirmed the importance of trilateral coordination consistent with their commitment to consult,” White House said in a statement Thursday. “They noted that any arms exports from the DPRK to Russia would directly violate multiple UN Security Council resolutions, including resolutions that Russia itself voted to adopt.” The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea is the North’s formal name. Meanwhile, the U.S. and South Korea held discussions under the Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consulting Group (EDSCG) in Seoul on Friday, where vice foreign and defense ministers from both sides discussed practical ways to curb heightened security risk for the allies, including the latest posed by the high-stakes Kim-Putin summit. “The Russia-North Korea military cooperation is a serious violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions,” Chang Ho-jin, South Korea’s first vice minister of its Foreign Ministry, told reporters after the EDSCG discussion. “We have shared our concerns about the recent intensification of North Korea-Russia military cooperation and discussed future responses.” The U.S. and South Korea representatives said the trilateral cooperation including Japan would boost the allies’ capability in deterring North Korea’s nuclear provocations. “Japan would play a major role in stopping the North Korean naval and air threats in/over the East Sea, and Japanese Aegis ships might also assist in shooting down North Korean ballistic and cruise missiles,” said Bruce Bennett, adjunct international/defense researcher at the RAND Corporation and a professor at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. “In short, Japan would have a major role in helping to stop any North Korean invasion of the ROK,” he added, referring to South Korea’s formal name. “In the wake of a North Korean invasion of the ROK, the defense of the ROK might actually fail without Japanese assistance. And interestingly, if North Korea starts a major conflict against Japan and not the ROK, the ROK could play a major role in stopping the North Korean aggression,” Bennett pointed out. The EDSCG meeting represent an elevated level of cooperation among democracies, underscored by a heightened call for stronger trilateral collaboration. “To address the common security concerns, the initial step is to solidify and institutionalize the trilateral cooperation framework among South Korea, U.S. and Japan,” Jin Chang-soo, an expert at South Korea’s prestige think tank, Sejong Institute, said. “The most significant strategic disadvantage from this [cooperation] would likely be on China.” South Korea, the U.S., and Japan take part in joint naval missile defense exercises in international waters between Korea and Japan, April 17, 2023. (The South Korean Defense Ministry via Reuters) Biggest disadvantage: China China has long opposed the emergence of a multilateral security platform in the region, frequently expressing concerns over the possible establishment of what it called a “mini-Nato” in the Indo-Pacific. However, the latest Kim-Putin summit is likely to just provide the impetus for a more united security front involving the U.S., South Korea, and Japan – and possibly more. “This would be a major concern for China. The level of security cooperation among the U.S., South Korea, and Japan in terms of material capability, surpasses that of China, Russia and North Korea; they simply aren’t on the same playing field,” Jin said. “From China’s perspective, the North Korea-Russia summit intensifies pressure to bolster the trilateral cooperation among the like-minded nations. The military collaboration sought by North Korea and Russia to involve China might also not be in China’s best interests.” The consolidation of the trilateral security cooperation may work against China’s expansionist ambition. The institutionalized coalition could become a barrier to Beijing’s naval operations, including those in the South China Sea, where China has long pursued its territorial claims. Improved intelligence sharing and joint military exercises may also restrict China’s strategic options, potentially jeopardizing its…
G20 ends on high note for Indian host
The G20 wound up on Sunday with leaders visiting a memorial statue to Indian independence leader Mahatma Gandhi, a day after adding 55 new member states via the African Union and coming up with a compromise communique soft on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Prime Minister Narendra Modi invited the African Union to join the G20 as a permanent member on Saturday in his opening remarks, calling on members to end a “global trust deficit.” “It is time for all of us to move together,” Modi said. Despite widespread anticipation that this year’s summit would be a damp squib, it appeared to have featured some significant pushback on China’s apparent unwillingness to play ball with the developed world. Modi announced on Saturday that negotiators had resolved deep differences over the wording on the war in Ukraine, but the phrasing – not invasion by Russia but “war in Ukraine” – was clearly a bone to Russia and China, whose leaders did not attend. China and Russia were opposed to any joint statement that censures Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. U.S. President Joe Biden skipped the final session of the summit, heading to Vietnam, where a Whitehouse official said the two nations would elevate their relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership, putting it on a par with Beijing and Moscow’s engagement with Hanoi. U.S. President Joe Biden leaves for Vietnam after attending the G20 Summit, in New Delhi, India, Sunday, Sept. 10, 2023. Credit: AP Modi pronounced the summit a success. “On the back of the hard work of all the teams, we have received consensus on the G20 Leaders Summit Declaration. I announce the adoption of this declaration,” Modi told the G20 leaders in New Delhi. “#G20India has been the MOST ambitious in the history of #G20 presidencies. With 112 outcomes and presidency documents, we have more than tripled the substantive work from previous presidencies,” said India’s G20 Sherpa representative Amitabh Kant on social media. Commentators said that it was significant that India appeared to be ready to take a more assertive role in global politics. Modi ended the summit by passing on the ceremonial gavel to Brazil’s president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, whose country takes over the bloc’s presidency. Welcome Africa The announcement of permanent inclusion of the 55-nation African Union (AU) is likely to be a blow for Chinese president Xi Jinping, who did not attend the summit for unknown reasons, and recently heralded the new membership of six countries in the BRICS grouping as “historic.” The AU’s young population of 1.3 billion is expected to double by 2050, when it will account for a quarter of the global population. It’s strategically important to both China, Africa’s largest trading partner and one of its largest lenders, and Russia, its leading arms provider. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, right, shares a light moment with African Union Chairman Azali Assoumani upon his arrival at Bharat Mandapam convention center for the G20 Summit in New Delhi, India, Saturday, Sept. 9, 2023. Credit: Pool via Reuters Meanwhile, in what will likely be seen as a challenge to Xi’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), U.S. President Joe Biden, Modi and allies announced a rail and shipping corridor connecting India with the Middle East and ultimately Europe. The project will include the United States, India, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the European Union and other countries in the G20. Commentators speculate it will enable greater trade and be an ambitious counter to China’s massive BRI, through which it has sought to invest and lend its way to making its economy better connected with the world. Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, left, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi shake hands next to U.S. President Joe Biden on the first day of the G20 summit in New Delhi, India, Sept. 9, 2023. Credit: AP/POOL The moves on Saturday, which were roundly seen as pushback against China, came against a background of speculation as to why China’s Xi was not present and calls for Beijing to explain itself. “It’s incumbent upon the Chinese government to explain” why its leader “would or would not participate,” Jon Finer, the U.S. deputy national security adviser, told reporters in Delhi. He said there was speculation that China is “giving up on G20” in favor of groupings like BRICS, where it is dominant. Chinese Premier Li Qiang, who attended the summit as a representative of Xi, called on the European Union Commission President Ursula von der Leyen for greater unity and cooperation between the two sides to counter global uncertainties, according to a statement on Sunday from China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Li urged the EU to provide a non-discriminatory environment for Chinese companies, as the bloc becomes warier of the risks of engaging China, seeing it as a “systemic rival” since 2019. Edited by Mike Firn and Elaine Chan.
Vietnam wants it all in balancing its ties with the US and China
President Joe Biden is heading to Vietnam for a visit that will upgrade bilateral relations to a “strategic comprehensive partnership,” a symbolic step that opens the door to wider cooperation between former Cold War foes who are now grappling with an assertive, powerful China. The elevated status is a symbolic gesture that recognizes the developed state of U.S.-Vietnam ties, almost 30 years after they normalized diplomatic relations and a half century since the end of the Vietnam War. But it doesn’t reflect a fundamental change in Vietnamese policy. Indeed, it should be seen as a manifestation of what Hanoi calls its omnidirectional and independent foreign policy. The overall growth of the relationship will remain hemmed in by the fact that the communist leaders who run Vietnam share the same world view as those who control China. In a partnership hierarchy created by the Vietnamese government, at the very top are neighbors Laos and Cambodia. However, what was once Vietnam’s secure western flank is now a source of concern with China’s surge in influence through investment, lending, development projects, and corruption. Comprehensive strategic partnerships had been reserved for Vietnam’s friends since the days of the revolution: Russia, China, and India. In 2023, in recognition of their burgeoning economic relationship, Vietnam elevated South Korea to that pantheon, recently followed by Singapore and Australia, and soon Indonesia. Liu Jianchao [shown], the head of the Communist Party of China’s International Liaison Department, recently met with General Secretary of Communist Party of Vietnam, Nguyen Phu Trong. Credit: Andy Wong/AP file photo For the U.S., the leapfrog from Vietnam’s comprehensive partner to a comprehensive strategic partner is important for three reasons. First, for top leaders in Hanoi, symbolism does matter. That a former foe is now on a par with revolutionary era friends is a win. Second, this upgrade will not please China, even though Hanoi has worked assiduously to try to convince Beijing that it is maintaining its independent foreign policy. It is inconceivable that Hanoi has not briefed Beijing on this, and Communist Party of Vietnam General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong has made party-to-party ties stronger than ever. He would not have approved the relationship upgrade if he felt insecure by Beijing’s reaction. Five days before Biden’s expected arrival this weekend, Liu Jianchao, the head of the Chinese Communist Party’s International Liaison Department met with Trong, who no doubt gave him further assurances. While Washington may want to rankle Beijing, which has overplayed its hand in the region with its aggressive South China Sea behavior and hawkish “Wolf Warrior” diplomacy, its real goal is to see Vietnam be strong enough to assert its vaunted autonomous foreign policy. Hanoi will no doubt be sending a politburo-level delegation to assure Beijing that the upgrade is not a lurch towards the United States or in any way anti-Chinese, but a manifestation of Vietnam’s independent and omni-directional foreign policy. Third, at the bureaucratic level, it’s hoped that the upgrade gives political top cover for the line ministries to increase their cooperation with U.S. counterparts across a range of issues, from countering narcotics and human trafficking to security cooperation. The upgrade does not automatically lead to more market access, more trade and investment, more port visits and other military engagements, but it won’t hurt their prospects either. In short, this upgrade is long overdue, and reflects the fact that the U.S. has far deeper ties than many other states ranked above it. An economic imperative The upgrade comes as Vietnam’s economy is slowing dramatically. Despite 8.5% growth in 2022, GDP only grew by 3.72% in the first six months of 2023, half the target. The Asian Development Bank and IMF have lowered their annual forecasts to 5.8% and 4.7%, respectively. While Vietnam has benefitted from corporate supply chain diversification out of China, that trend has also made the economy over-dependent on exports, which have fallen for five consecutive months, the longest slump in 14 years. In July, exports fell 3.5%. Industrial production contracted 1.8% in the first half of 2023, causing a 13% year-on-year increase in industrial layoffs. While Vietnam enjoys a large trade surplus with the U.S. – $44.3 billion in the first seven months of 2023 – that is down 24% year-on-year. Vietnam runs enormous trade deficits with China, as its manufactured goods are highly dependent on imported Chinese components. Without its exports to the U.S., Vietnam would run chronic trade deficits. As a direct foreign investor, the U.S. lags behind South Korea, Singapore, China, and Japan. In early 2023, Boeing announced a production facility, while Apple shifted an iPad production line out of China to Vietnam. But there’s plenty of room for growth. We should also not lose sight of portfolio investment from the U.S., where one fund alone has invested $1.5 billion in six projects. An employee works at Heesung Electronics Vietnam factory in Hai Phong, Vietnam, Aug. 29, 2023. Vietnam’s economy is slowing, with GDP growth of only 3.72% in the first six months of 2023. Credit: Nhac Nguyen/AFP Corporate Vietnam is trying to make a splash in the U.S.. Electric vehicle maker VinFast broke ground on a $4 billion plant in North Carolina, and has seen wild stock valuations after its recent listing on NASDAQ. VinFast sees the United States as the key to its growth, if not viability, despite a rocky first nine months that saw few sales and a recall. The tech firm VNG, Vietnam’s first “unicorn,” has filed paperwork for its listing on NASDAQ. If Vietnam is to escape the middle-income trap, it’s through trade and investment ties with the U.S., not China. To that end, executives from a swath of U.S. semiconductor and other tech industry will be joining Biden’s trip. What remains missing in U.S. policy towards the Asia-Pacific is an economic architecture. Since the withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership in January 2017, the United States has abdicated its leadership. States are going along with the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) , but only to keep Washington…
