EXPLAINED: Who are Myanmar’s Arakan Army?

The Arakan Army insurgent group in western Myanmar’s Rakhine state has made rapid advances against the junta over the past year and controls more territory and people than any other rebel force in Myanmar. Rakhine state, or Arakan as it used to be known, was a separate kingdom until it was conquered by Burmese kings in 1784. Now the Arakan Army, or AA, could be on the brink of a major step towards fulfilling what it calls the “Arakan Dream”, of once again securing self-determination for the state of more than 3 million people, some 60% of whom are ethnic Rakhine Buddhists and about 35% Muslim Rohingya. As the AA advances towards its goal of driving out junta forces, scrutiny has turned to how it sees Rakhine state’s future in Myanmar, how it would handle the state’s Muslim minority, amid accusations of serious rights abuses, which the AA denies, and how it would accommodate China’s economic ambitions. Lightning progress The AA was founded in 2009 by members of the ethnic Rakhine community, led by former student activist Twan Mrat Naing, seeking shelter with the Kachin Independence Army, or KIA, in northern Myanmar. The AA recruited some of its first fighters among Rakhine men working in jade mines in Kachin state. They gained experience fighting the military alongside the KIA and other insurgent forces in Shan state, before filtering back into Rakhine state from around 2014. The AA burst onto the scene in Rakhine state on Jan. 4, 2019, with Independence Day attacks on four police stations. Aung San Suu Kyi, who led a civilian government at the time, ordered the military to crush the “terrorist” force but the two sides later agreed to a ceasefire. The AA condemned the military’s February 2021 coup but did not immediately resort to arms. Over the next two years of on-again, off-again ceasefires, the AA built up its administrative capacity through its political wing, the United League of Arakan, including a COVID-19 vaccination drive. In November 2023, it launched a large-scale offensive in coordination with two Shan state insurgent forces, as part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance. The AA made lightning progress, initially in northern Rakhine state and a southern part of neighboring Chin state that it claims, seizing military outposts, bases and towns, as well as large amounts of arms and ammunition. Arakan Army soliders with captured arms and ammunition in a phto posted on the group’s website on Feb. 13, 2024. The AA claims to have more than 30,000 fighters though independent analysts suspect its strength is around 20,000. The AA controls about 80% of Rakhine state – 10 of its 17 townships and one in neighboring Chin state. In townships it does not control, it has pinned junta forces into pockets of territory, such as the state capital, Sittwe, the town of Ann, home of the military’s Western Command, and the Kyaukpyu economic zone on the coast where China has energy facilities. RELATED STORIES Arakan Army treatment of Rohingya minority poses challenge to Myanmar opposition Arakan Army’s gains enough to enable self-rule in Myanmar’s Rakhine state International criminal court seeks arrest warrant for Myanmar junta chief Confederation While all of Myanmar’s insurgent forces want to throw off military rule, they differ when it comes to ultimate aims. Most ethnic minority forces and pro-democracy militias drawn from the majority Burman community aspire to a democratic, federal union but the AA has called for a vaguely defined “confederate status” for Rakhine state. “We will see whether a Federal Union of Myanmar will have the political space for the kind of confederation that our Arakanese people aspire for,” AA leader Twan Mrat Naing told the Asia Times newspaper in a 2022 interview. The prospect of the AA governing Rakhine state is bound to raise fears for the Rohingya. The AA’s position on the persecuted Muslim minority community has shifted over the years, from seemingly moderate and inclusive to accusations of mass killings this year. The catalyst for the hardening of the AA line on the Rohingya was a campaign by the junta to recruit, at times forcibly, Rohingya men into militias to fight the AA. U.N. investigators said they documented attacks on Rohingya by both the AA and the junta. On Aug. 5, scores of Rohingya trying to flee from the town of Maungdaw to Bangladesh, across a border river, were killed by drones and artillery fire that survivors and rights groups said was unleashed by the AA. The AA denied responsibility. As well as capturing large volumes of weapons from the military, the AA has been helped by its insurgent allies in the northeast, analysts say. For revenue, it says it relies on taxes and donations from Rakhine workers overseas. It denies any link to the flow of methamphetamines from producers in Myanmar to a booming black market in Bangladesh. The role of China is likely to be crucial as it seeks to bring peace to Myanmar. China has extensive economic interests in its southern neighbor including a hub for its Belt and Road energy and infrastructure network in Rakhine state at Kyaukpyu, where China wants to build a deep sea port. Natural gas and oil pipelines begin at Kyaukpyu and run across Myanmar to southern China. The AA, like other insurgents in Myanmar, has not attacked Chinese interests, though it has surrounded Kyaukpyu. Some analysts say the AA, with its northeastern Myanmar connections, has links to China. However, there has been no public indication that China is pressing the AA to make peace with the junta, as it has done with groups in northern and northeastern Myanmar. Edited by Kiana Duncan and Taejun Kang. We are : Investigative Journalism Reportika Investigative Reports Daily Reports Interviews Surveys Reportika

Read More

Cambodia, Laos sack foreign ministers in preparation for more combative geopolitics

On Nov. 19, Sok Chenda Sophea, who was only brought in as Cambodia’s foreign minister last year, was given the in as secretary of state. Washington’s leading China hawk is expected to take a much tougher stance on Beijing’s partners in Asia, such as Cambodia, and on mainland Southeast Asia’s vast scam industry that is increasingly victimizing U.S. citizens. Unlike Sok Chenda Sophea, Prak is more of a ruling-party partisan who can push back against U.S. criticism. Presumably, Phnom Penh realizes it’ll soon have to wade into a new fight with Washington, making it even more important to be on the best terms with Beijing. Beijing won’t be displeased by Prak’s return. Attuned to Beijing China is believed to have grown weary with some of the princelings installed in Hu Manet’s cabinet during last year’s vast generational succession process. It has been lobbying for the return of Prak, an old-style politician who understands how Beijing prefers things to be done. In Vientiane, Saleumxay did a good job in recent years of pitching Laos to the rest of the world, including the West, and as the only fluent English speaker in the Politburo was key to securing some important development assistance packages from Japan, the U.S., and European states. Yet Laos’s dire economic situation, particularly its massive debts to China, isn’t improving, and only Beijing has the ability to assist meaningfully. A damning report by the IMF published last week noted that Laos’s economy “critically relies on the continued extension of debt relief from China.” Vientiane knows it must narrow its foreign relations again to focus squarely on China. Indeed, the communist party is eager to find a more senior role for pro-Beijing figures like Sommath Pholsena, currently a deputy president of the National Assembly and a childhood friend of Xi Jinping, China’s president. He’ll likely be the next National Assembly chair. Thongsavanh Phomvihane, the new foreign minister, started his career at Laos’s embassy in Beijing, has closer ties to the Chinese Communist Party, and is more of a party loyalist than Saleumxay. Like Prak, he’s an older, more traditional and safer pair of hands, someone who understands what Beijing wants and how to provide that. David Hutt is a research fellow at the Central European Institute of Asian Studies (CEIAS) and the Southeast Asia Columnist at the Diplomat. He writes the Watching Europe In Southeast Asia newsletter. The views expressed here are his own and do not reflect the position of RFA. We are : Investigative Journalism Reportika Investigative Reports Daily Reports Interviews Surveys Reportika

Read More

Children make up nearly 40% of Myanmar’s 3.4 million displaced: UN

Read RFA coverage of this topic in Burmese. Children make up nearly 40% of the more than 3.4 million people displaced in Myanmar due to the civil war, UNICEF said Thursday. The findings from United Nations Children’s Fund came as an organization that monitors conflict in Myanmar said the ruling junta and affiliated groups have killed more than 670 children since the military seized power in a February 2021 coup d’etat, sparking the conflict. In a statement on Thursday — a day after World Children’s Day — UNICEF Deputy Executive Director Ted Chaiban said that the humanitarian crisis in Myanmar is “reaching a critical inflection point,” with escalating conflict and climate shocks “putting children and families at unprecedented risk.” He said that approximately 1 million people have been affected by the country’s war, which was sparked amid public opposition to the military takeover, and devastation caused by late September’s Cyclone Yagi — Southeast Asia’s worst storm of the year. Chaiban said that during a recent trip to Myanmar’s embattled Kachin state, he saw children “cut off from vital services, including healthcare and education, and suffering from the effects of violence and displacement.” “[I] saw firsthand how vulnerable children and other civilians are in conflict-affected areas and the urgent need to uphold international humanitarian law to protect them from such brutal attacks,” he said. RELATED STORIES Myanmar junta airstrike kills children playing by a church, group says Over a dozen children missing after Myanmar boat accident Myanmar tops grim world ranking of landmine victims Chaiban noted that minors account for 32% of the more than 1,000 people injured and killed by landmines and other explosive devices since the start of the conflict. “The increasing use of deadly weapons in civilian areas, including airstrikes and landmines hitting homes, hospitals, and schools, has severely restricted the already limited safe spaces for children, robbing them of their right to safety and security,” he said, adding that “the situation is dire.” Chaiban called for all stakeholders in Myanmar to guarantee safe and unhindered aid, especially for children and families in conflict zones, to remove administrative barriers and ensure minimum operating standards and to protect children from grave violations. “International humanitarian law must be upheld, with a focus on protecting civilians and civilian infrastructure – including schools and hospitals – and ensuring safe passage for those fleeing from violence,” he said. Additionally, he urged the international community to increase its support for the country’s children through funding and advocacy. “The cost of inaction is far too high — Myanmar’s children cannot afford to wait,” he said. Hundreds of children killed Also on Thursday, the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners – Burma reported that, as of Nov. 20, the junta and its affiliate groups had killed at least 671 children in Myanmar since the coup nearly four years ago. The group said that the number showed a year-on-year increase in child mortality rates, attributable to the conflict. In 2021, AAPP said, 101 children under the age of 18 were reported killed, followed by 136 the following year. By 2023, the number had increased to 208 and, by the end of 2024, had reached 226 child fatalities. In one of the worst incidents since the coup, the junta bombed Konlaw village in Kachin state’s Momauk township on Nov. 15, killing nine displaced people, including seven children, the group said. Amid an escalating toll of child casualties caused by airstrikes, Naw Susanna Hla Hla Soe, the shadow National Unity Government’s Minister of Women, Youth, and Children’s Affairs, called for urgent measures to ban the sale of aviation fuel to Myanmar’s military. “We urgently request the cessation of aircraft fuel sales to the military regime, as it is being used to carry out brutal attacks that result in the killing of children,” she said during remarks delivered at a World Children’s Day event in Myanmar on Wednesday. Attempts by RFA to reach junta spokesperson Major General Zaw Min Tun for comment on the situation facing children in Myanmar went unanswered Thursday. According to the AAPP, junta authorities have killed at least 5,974 civilians since the military coup. Translated by Kalyar Lwin. Edited by Joshua Lipes and Malcolm Foster. We are : Investigative Journalism Reportika Investigative Reports Daily Reports Interviews Surveys Reportika

Read More

Five years on, PolyU protesters say they were defending freedoms

Five years after riot police besieged Hong Kong’s Polytechnic University and trapped protesters fought back with catapults and Molotov cocktails, four people who were there say they were trying to stand up for their promised rights and freedoms in the face of ongoing political encroachment from Beijing. The 10-day siege of PolyU began on Nov. 18, 2019, after around 1,000 protesters occupied the university as part of an ongoing series of actions to achieve the movement’s key demands: fully democratic elections; the withdrawal of plans to allow extradition to mainland China; greater official and police accountability; and an amnesty for detained protesters. The protesters were then trapped on campus as riot police encircled the area, prompting nearly 100,000 people to turn out to battle riot police across Tsim Sha Tsui, Jordan, Yau Ma Tei, Mong Kok and other parts of the Kowloon peninsula. Four young people who were among the besieged protesters spoke to RFA Cantonese on the fifth anniversary of the siege, which ended Nov. 19, 2019, and proved to be one of the last major standoffs between black-clad protesters and riot police after months of clashes sparked by plans to allow extradition to mainland China. Protesters are sprayed with blue liquid from a water cannon during clashes with police outside Hong Kong Polytechnic University in Hong Kong, Nov. 17, 2019. He said many young protesters were motivated by a desire to burn their home city to the ground rather than acquiesce in its transformation into another Chinese city under Communist Party rule. “Nowadays, the Chinese Communist Party is no longer hiding its authoritarian tendencies, and has been sanctioned by the international community, while the Hong Kong economy declines by the day,” Kai said. “This shows that our idea that we would all burn together was right on the money,” he said. Around 1,300 people were arrested, with around 300 sent to hospital for injuries related to water cannon blast, tear gas, and rubber bullets, as protesters wielding Molotov cocktails, catapults and other makeshift weapons from behind barricades beat back repeated attempts by riot police to advance into the university campus. Small groups of protesters continued to make desperate bids for freedom throughout the siege, many of them only to end up being arrested and beaten bloody by police. Police also deployed tear gas, water cannon, and rubber bullets against a crowd of thousands trying to push through towards Poly U from Jordan district, with hundreds forming human chains to pass bricks, umbrellas, and other supplies to front-line fighters. “I took part in a lot of protest-related activities from June [of that year] onwards, although I never considered myself a front-line fighter,” a former protester living in the United Kingdom who gave only the pseudonym Kit for fear of reprisals, told RFA Cantonese in a recent interview. “But I felt that if I wasn’t prepared to take it further, then we really would lose the rule of law in Hong Kong.” Protesters leave the Hong Kong Polytechnic University campus to surrender to police, in Hong Kong, Nov. 19, 2019. “What impressed me most was that some of the protesters used a homemade catapult to launch Molotov cocktails, which set fire to the police armored vehicle, forcing it to retreat,” he said. “Everyone cheered when that happened.” “Actually, the situation inside PolyU was total chaos, with a lot of misinformation coming in, and nobody really knew what to do,” he said. Tin said he had fled Hong Kong and wound up in Japan after traveling to several other countries first. “I’ve had good and bad experiences over the last five years, but I’ve survived,” he said. A former protester now living in Germany who gave only the nickname Hei for fear of reprisals said he went to PolyU on Nov. 17 to try to persuade his fellow protesters to leave while they still could. Before he knew it, he was trapped inside. “I wanted to persuade them to leave, because the situation was critical, with helicopters flying overhead,” Hei said. “But they refused to leave.” Hei never thought he’d be stuck there for as long as he was. “When it became clear at around 9.30 that evening that those of us left inside weren’t going to be able to leave, things got pretty dark,” he said. “One guy told us to make a written statement pledging not to commit suicide.” So he stayed behind to resist the advance of the riot police. “The police offensive was really intense,” he said. “I was on the platform of A Core for the entire night.” Pro-democracy lawmakers stand amid items left behind by protestors in Hong Kong Polytechnic University in Hong Kong, Nov. 26, 2019. “Just below us were the frontline fighters, and the police water cannon truck, which sprayed us on the platform with blue water from time to time,” Hei said. “Then at about 6.00 p.m. on the 18th, the police suddenly launched an offensive and fired large numbers of tear gas rounds and rubber bullets from a high altitude at the Core A platform.” “I opened my umbrella and squatted down next to a tree, and the bullets kept cracking on the umbrella,” he said. “We lost the position pretty quickly, but I was able to make it back to PolyU luckily.” Inside, rumors were swirling that the police would burst in to arrest everyone, so Hei managed to escape by following a lawyer who had come in to try to help the young people inside. He had a lucky escape. Anyone arrested during the siege was eventually charged with “rioting,” with some receiving jail terms of up to 10 years. “They only took my ID details,” said Hei, who wasn’t arrested, and who later left Hong Kong for Germany. He said the siege taught him how hard it is to stand up to an authoritarian regime. “But I have no regrets, because anyone with a conscience or any sense of justice would have chosen to stand up,” he…

Read More

Myanmar junta airstrike kills children playing by a church, group says

Read RFA coverage of this topic in Burmese. Myanmar’s air force bombed a church where displaced people were sheltering near the border with China killing nine of them including children, days after the junta chief reiterated a call for peace talks, an insurgent group official told Radio Free Asia. Fighting in Myanmar is expected to intensify in coming weeks as forces of the junta that seized power in 2021 take advantage of the dry season to try to recapture territory lost to guerrilla groups over the past year, and despite efforts by neighboring China to promote dialogue. In northern Myanmar’s Kachin state, fighters from the Kachin Independence Army, or KIA, have made significant gains this year, capturing numerous military positions as well as jade and rare earth mines and most crossings on the border with China. The military has responded with airstrikes, which insurgents and rights groups say are often targeted at civilians in a bid by the military to scare off support for the rebels. A junta plane dropped a bomb on a church in Kachin state’s Konlaw village on Friday, next to a camp for people displaced by fighting, killing nine of them, said a KIA information officer, Naw Bu said. “It hit kids from the camp who were playing in the area at the time, the camp itself and the church,” Naw Bu said. “In just one family, the father, the mother, and all their kids, six people in total, died,” he said, adding that nine people were killed in all. He said there was no instigation for the attack, adding that an attack on displaced civilians and a religious building was a war crime. Eleven people were wounded, seven critically, and were being treated at a hospital near Lai Zar on the Chinese border, he said. RFA tried to telephone military spokesperson Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun for comment but he did not answer. Many Kachin people are Christian as are members of some of the other ethnic minorities in predominantly Buddhist Myanmar’s hilly border lands. The KIA captured Kung Law, which is to the east of the town of Bhamo, in late March in fighting that displaced about 3,000 people. The deadly bombing comes days after the junta chief, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, reiterated during a visit to China a call for peace talks with the rebel forces fighting for self-determination and to end military rule. Anti-junta forces have dismissed Min Aung Hlaing’s call as aimed at appeasing China, which is pressing for an end to the bloody turmoil in its south neighbor that threatens its economic interests there, including energy pipelines running up from the Indian Ocean and mining projects. Insurgents say they expect offensives against them in different parts of the country this dry season, which usually begins in November and enables the military to advance with its heavy vehicles over poor roads. Naw Bu identified those killed in the airstrike as Sut Zai Li, 5, May Sen Pan, 7, Gum Seng Maw, 9, Tsawm San, 10, Mung Htoi Awng, 11, Sa Ra Seng, 11 Myu Jet Awn, 13, Lazum Lung Wa, 35 and Mun Mai 36. From January to October, airstrikes killed 540 people nationwide, the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners human rights group said in a report on Nov. 6. RELATED STORIES China denies entry to Myanmar nationals trapped by battle Residents in Myanmar feel the crunch as trade with China shuts down Fresh Chinese support may not be enough to save Myanmar junta Translated by Kiana Duncan. Edited by RFA staff. We are : Investigative Journalism Reportika Investigative Reports Daily Reports Interviews Surveys Reportika

Read More

HSBC restructuring a chance to rescue UK’s Hong Kongers from transnational repression

HSBC’s recently-announced plan to split into four businesses from Jan. 1 offers the British multinational bank a chance to correct a wrong against tens of thousands of Hong Kongers in the UK and Canada who have been denied access to their retirement savings. The Calls grow for UK to expand lifeboat scheme for Hong Kongers China Derecognizes BNO Passports as UK Launches Hong Kong Visa Scheme As the largest trustee of the MPF, HSBC oversees five MPF schemes and manages approximately 30 percent of the total MPF market, with assets totalling HK$371 billion (£37 billion). From this, Hong Kong Watch has estimated that HSBC is denying Hong Kongers access to as much as £978 million worth of assets in MPF holdings. ‘Financial transnational repression’ This week 13 Parliamentarians from every major political party in the UK wrote new HSBC Group Chief Executive Georges Elhedery urging him to resolve the frozen funds issue. “As Members of Parliament, we welcome information on how the restructuring of HSBC, specifically the creation of separate ‘Hong Kong’ and ‘UK’ businesses, will impact the more than 180,000 BNO Hong Kongers living across the UK who attempt to withdraw their MPF savings,” said the letter. Chris Patten, the last British governor of Hong Kong and a signatory to the letter, called on HSBC to make “meaningful changes” for the affected Hong Kongers during the restructuring. “If HSBC has not yet taken into account how its reorganisation, specifically in regard to the split between the Hong Kong and UK markets, will affect Hong Kongers abroad, it should carefully consider how to protect its Hong Kong customers from further financial transnational repression,” wrote Patten, a patron of Hong Kong Watch. It has been nearly four years since the UK government launched the BNO scheme, which is far too long for Hong Kongers to be blocked from the very savings that, for some, would unleash the path to their new life in Britain. A man bids farewell to relatives and friends at the Hong Kong airport as he and his family prepare to leave the city for England, on May 21, 2021. I continue to hear accounts of struggle as Hong Kongers long to adjust to their new lives in the UK, including a single mom who is again worried about not being able to afford heating this winter, as well as one family which cannot afford accessibility features in their home for their child with disabilities. HSBC must seriously consider how it will handle Hong Kongers’ MPF savings as they rearrange the foundations of the company to split the Hong Kong and UK markets, as it is time for their funds to be rightfully released. In addition, the new UK government should seek to further understand the issue, raise the freezing of BNO Hong Kongers’ savings in every bilateral meeting with China and Hong Kong, and take immediate action to issue guidance to MPF trustees regarding the use of BNO passports as valid, UK government-issued identity documents. This would ensure that Hong Kongers who are part of the UK’s BNO community do not have to face another cold winter nor a sleepless night trying to figure out how they will provide for their family while still in the shadow of trauma from escaping political repression in Hong Kong. Megan Khoo is policy director at the international NGO Hong Kong Watch. Khoo, based in London, has served in communications roles at foreign policy non-profit organizations in London and Washington, D.C.. The views expressed here do not reflect the position of Radio Free Asia. We are : Investigative Journalism Reportika Investigative Reports Daily Reports Interviews Surveys Reportika

Read More

Kim Jong Un wants North Korea to mass produce suicide drones

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un wants the country to begin mass production of suicide drones, raising concerns that Pyongyang could potentially send these to Russia for use in its war in Ukraine. State media reported that the country’s supreme leader Kim Jong Un visited a test site for the unmanned attack aircraft. “The suicide attack drones, designed to be used within different striking ranges on the ground and the sea, are to perform a precision attack mission against any enemy targets,” the Korea Central News Agency report said. In tests, the drones “precisely hit” targets, it said. Kim “underscored the need to build a serial production system as early as possible and go into full-scale mass production,” the report said. Though the report made no mention of the possibility of North Korea manufacturing drones to be sold to Russia, several analysts said that North Korea might look to do just that. The war is the motivation behind North Korean drone development, Bruce Bennett, a researcher at the U.S.-based RAND Corporation told RFA Korean. “Putin wants cheap weapons, and Kim Jong Un can produce them,” said Bennett. “I suspect that Russia transferred drone technology to support North Korea’s production.” North Korean leader Kim Jong Un watches a drone test at the Drone Institute of the Academy of Defense Sciences, Aug. 24, 2024. He also noted that any North Korean ability to mass-produce drones could be a potential threat to South Korea. The successful test of suicide drones as reported by North Korean state media is a concern in light of the deepening ties between Moscow and Pyongyang, Bruce Klingner of the Washington-based Heritage Foundation said. Klingner said that North Korea has already provided Russia with artillery shells, ballistic missiles, and over 10,000 troops. He also said that the recent ratification of a comprehensive bilateral security treaty between Russia and North Korea suggests that Moscow might soon increase transfer of military technology to Pyongyang. Meanwhile, the U.S. State Department expressed concern over the deepening relationship, calling it and its associated weapons transfers “a trend that should be of great concern to anyone who is interested in maintaining peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, preserving the global nonproliferation regime, and supporting the Ukrainian people.” Edited by Eugene Whong and Malcolm Foster. We are : Investigative Journalism Reportika Investigative Reports Daily Reports Interviews Surveys Reportika

Read More

Perhaps it would be better if Myanmar’s civil war became a ‘forgotten conflict’

It’s become fashionable in some quarters to suggest the three-year-old Myanmar civil war might be solvable if only more people remembered that it was taking place. Julie Bishop, a former Australian foreign minister appointed the UN Special Envoy on Myanmar in April, recently gave her first address to a UN General Assembly committee, in which she warned that “the Myanmar conflict risks becoming a forgotten crisis.” One might enquire by whom this conflict is apparently becoming “forgotten.” One can hardly say with a straight face that it has been forgotten by the 54 million people of Myanmar, nor by the 3.1 million people who have been displaced, nor the million or so Rohingya who must still live in hell-hole refugee camps abroad because they know the military junta wants to finish the genocide it started years ago. It is certainly not forgotten by the people who matter the most. Displaced people from Lashio cross the Dokhtawaddy river as they flee their homes following clashes between Myanmar’s military and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), in Zin Ann village between Lashio and Hsipaw township in Myanmar’s northern Shan state, July 8, 2024 But the claim also invites the question: Would there be any improvement if the conflict was less forgotten? Frankly, if any Western democracy or the UN wanted to intervene, they’ve had several years to do so. If ASEAN wanted to stop play-acting at mediation, it’s had since April 2021 to carve some teeth into the Five-Point Consensus, its unrealized peace plan. Post-colonial settlement This conflict has been raging since February 2021, though some might say, quite accurately, that it has actually been waiting to erupt since the 1950s. Whereas nearly every other Southeast Asian country underwent something like a civil war or democratic revolution after gaining independence from European colonial powers, Myanmar never did so. That process was left stillborne by the military coup of 1962. Because the military has shown that it cannot be trusted to share power with a civilian government, only now, do the people of Myanmar have the possibility of throwing off the foul despotism that has enchained them throughout the post-colonial era. RELATED STORIES newsletter. The views expressed here are his own and do not reflect the position of RFA. We are : Investigative Journalism Reportika Investigative Reports Daily Reports Interviews Surveys Reportika

Read More

Climate ‘flashpoint’ looms for Trump’s China-centric focus on Pacific: US analysts

Growing U.S. security and diplomatic ties with Pacific island nations are unlikely to slow even if American foreign policy undergoes a major shake-up during Donald Trump’s second term, say former White House advisers and analysts. Following decades of neglect, Washington has in recent years embarked on a Pacific charm offensive to counter the growing influence of China in the region. While Trump’s unpredictably and climate change skepticism could be potential flashpoints in relations, deepening U.S. engagement with the Pacific is now firmly a consensus issue in Washington. Trump is likely to maintain focus on the relationship, experts say, but he will have to prove that U.S. attention extends beyond just security-related matters. “President Trump saw a strategic rationale for increased engagement in the Indo-Pacific and increased engagement in the Pacific islands,” said Alexander Gray, a senior fellow in national security affairs at the American Foreign Policy Council. “While the reality is that the security lens is going to galvanize our commitment of resources and time on the region, it’s important for us to send a message that we have other interests beyond just security,” added Gray, who was the first-ever director for Oceania & Indo-Pacific security at the National Security Council. “We have to show an interest in development, economic assistance and economic growth.” A number of firsts Trump’s first term between 2017-21 contained a number of firsts for relations between the world’s No. 1 economy and Pacific islands. PHOTO President Joe Biden (R) meets with presidents of Pacific island nations at the U.S.-Pacific Island Country Summit in Washington, D.C., Sept. 29, 2022. Paik, who is now a senior fellow with the Australia Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the climate factor would complicate the relationship, but it was unlikely to “completely sink” it. Despite Trump’s open skepticism about dangerous planet warming, U.S. support for resilience efforts across the Pacific might not be affected, some observers said. “The Pacific certainly didn’t agree with us on our macro approach to climate change,” said Gray, who visited the region a number of times, including for the 2019 Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) in Tuvalu. “But we made tremendous progress in advancing our relationships in the region because we were able to talk about resilience issues that affect people day to day.” Shared values, mutual respect Following Trump’s sweeping victory on Tuesday, Pacific island leaders tried to stress their shared interests with the U.S. “We look forward to reinforcing the longstanding partnership between our nations, grounded in shared values and mutual respect,” said Papua New Guinea Prime Minister James Marape. Tonga’s Prime Minister Siaosi Sovaleni and Fiji’s Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabukia both said they looked forward to advancing bilateral relations and Pacific interests. Pacific island nations have sought to benefit from the China-U.S. rivalry by securing more aid and foreign investment. But they have expressed alarm that their region is being turned into a geopolitical battleground. Reilly said a danger for any new president was treating the Pacific islands as a “geopolitical chess board.” “That’s a terrible way to actually engage and win hearts and minds and build enduring partnerships,” he said. Paik said the U.S. now needs to build on the successes of the first phase of American re-engagement. The U.S. renewed its compact of free association deals with Micronesia, Palau and the Marshall Islands earlier this year, but “some of the implementation is still pending,” she said. The deals give the U.S. military exclusive access to their vast ocean territories in exchange for funding and the right for their citizens to live and work in the U.S. “Some of the embassies have been opened, but we still only have one or two diplomats on the ground,” said Paik. “We still need to open an embassy in Kiribati and potentially other locations. “We need to get ambassadors out to the region. We need a permanent ambassador to the PIF.” No sitting U.S. president has ever visited a Pacific island nation. We are : Investigative Journalism Reportika Investigative Reports Daily Reports Interviews Surveys Reportika

Read More

Cashing In

North Korea is sending more than 10,000 Korean People’s Army troops to fight for Russia in Ukraine, with some 3,000 already moved close to the front in western Russia. The deployment, under a security partnership pact North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russia’s Vladimir Putin signed in June, has raised concern among the U.S. and allies South Korea, Japan and Ukraine. Critics see mercenary motives in Pyongyang, which will receive cash and technology for the mission. We are : Investigative Journalism Reportika Investigative Reports Daily Reports Interviews Surveys Reportika

Read More