Russia proposes joint naval drill with China, North Korea

Russia has formally proposed to China and North Korea for a joint naval drill in July, South Korea’s spies said on Monday – a move that could further escalate tensions in East Asia.   “Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has made an official proposal for a trilateral naval drill to Kim Jong Un when he last visited North Korea,” Yoo Sang-beom, a lawmaker who was briefed by the nation’s spy agency, in the National Assembly, told reporters.  The assessment by South Korea’s National Intelligence Service followed Shoigu’s visit to Pyongyang two months ago, which has raised suspicions that the two nations were looking to enhance their military cooperation including arms trading that would support Russia’s war with Ukraine.  Washington issued a stern warning against North Korea last month regarding weapons transactions with Russia. The White House’s national security spokesperson John Kirby said the U.S. was concerned about potential arms deals between Russia and North Korea. While Pyongyang’s recent provocations have strengthened trilateral security cooperation among the U.S., South Korea and Japan, both China and Russia are defending  North Korea on the international stage, with the North reciprocating this backing.  The South Korean spies also saw North Korea’s missile launch Saturday as a response to the U.S.-South Korea joint drill, according to Yoo, hinting that authoritarian regimes in the world are seeking their own ways to counter military ties among democracies. North Korea launched two cruise missiles carrying mock nuclear warheads towards the West Sea of the Korean peninsula. The missiles traveled about 1,500 kilometers (932 miles) for more than two hours, before detonating at an altitude of 150 meters, the official Korean Central News Agency said. While firing cruise missiles isn’t prohibited by the U.N., they present a significant threat to U.S. troops stationed in South Korea. North Korea’s latest cruise missile launch marked only a partial success. The Intelligence Service confirmed that one of the two missiles launched on Saturday was unsuccessful. The partial success, however, hints at Pyongyang’s revamped strategy to integrate its conventional arsenal and tactical nuclear weapons to threaten allies. “It seems clear that they are thinking of a short-term war, if there is any, merging their conventional arsenal with tactical nuclear weapons,” Yoo said, citing the assessment of South Korea’s spy agency.  He said the intelligence agents have emphasized North Korea’s inability to wage a long-term war, as the hermit state is strapped by an ongoing economic crisis. North Korea had imposed strict COVID restrictions in early 2020, shutting down its borders, including that with its biggest trading partner, China. The North Korean economy contracted for the third straight year in 2022, according to the Bank of Korea. COVID restrictions, compounded by international sanctions, are widely seen to have further depressed the North’s struggling economy. The South’s spies also reiterated the position that the agency has yet to draw any conclusion that Kim Ju Ae, Kim Jong Un’s daughter, will succeed her father as North Korea’s next leader. Kim Ju Ae was seen accompanying her father during the North’s Navy Day last week. It was her first public appearance since May 16, when she showed up for an on-site inspection of a preparatory committee related to the North’s attempt to launch a military spy satellite. The appearance was widely seen as a rare window of the regime’s motivations to familiarize the North Korean public with potential future leaders, a strategy that Pyongyang has employed for decades.  Edited by Elaine Chan and Mike Firn.

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Myanmar’s post-coup economy comes crumbling down

Amid the news of escalating violence, it’s easy to lose sight of two events in August 2023 that exposed the Myanmar military regime’s vulnerability.   First, in a video message to the Moscow International Security Conference, coup leader Min Aung Hlaing complained about the weaponization of the dollar.  Second, the August appointment of Lt Gen Nyo Saw to two special commissions on trade and foreign exchange that report directly to junta chief Min Aung Hlaing. Saw is a close confidant, but as the chairman of military-owned conglomerate Myanma Economic Corporation (MEC) and a director of military’s other holding company, Myanma Economic Holdings Ltd (MEHL), he’s also the military’s most experienced economic and business expert.  It’s hard to overstate just how bad Myanmar’s economy is. Although the World Bank predicts GDP to grow at 2 to 3% this year, the economy has contracted by 12% since January 2021. A decade’s worth of economic growth was eviscerated.  Myanmar junta leader Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing during a military exercise in Ayeyarwady delta region, Myanmar, Feb. 2018. Credit: Lynn Bo Bo/Reuters pool Nearly 60% of the population is now living beneath the poverty line, and the World Bank is warning about food insecurity across the country. Between war, climate change, and currency controls that limited the amount of the imports of fertilizer and pesticides, agricultural production is down. Although 2022-23 saw $1.6 billion in pledged foreign investment – almost all of which was from China or boomerang Myanmar investment via Singapore and Hong Kong – far less was actually realized. Other foreign investors are pulling out, citing poor market conditions, pressure from activists, and reputational costs. This has diminished the corporate tax base. With the exception of gas and oil sales to Thailand and China, exports have been hard hit. According to the military government’s Ministry of Commerce, in the first eight months of 2022, total exports reached $6.57 billion, giving the country a $172 million trade surplus.  In the same period in 2023, total exports dropped by 9.8% to $5.93 billion, with a $500 million trade deficit. But if one disaggregates border trade, it’s even worse.  Currency control confusion Exports to overseas markets fell by 21%. And it will worsen as key manufacturers, such as clothing makers H&M, Primark, and Inditex,- have left. Some retailers are now shunning Myanmar gemstones.  Trade has been hard hit by a series of hastily implemented currency controls that change regularly, upsetting businesses. Some of the more recent currency controls have forced any individual or business with more than $10,000, without a permit, to purchase the kyat currency at the official exchange rate of 2,100 to the U.S. dollar.  The black market rate for the greenback is 3,900 kyat , a 300% decline in the value of the currency since the Feb. 1, 2021 coup.  Headquarters of the military-owned Myanmar Economic Corporation in Yangon, one of the country’s main military conglomerates. Photo: Ye Aung Thu/AFP Myanmar’s banks are increasingly isolated. U.S. sanctions on Myanma Foreign Trade Bank and Myanma Investment and Commercial Bank, which were responsible for the clearing of most U.S. dollar transactions, have forced costly workarounds, such as establishing new shell companies and bank accounts. Singapore’s United Overseas Bank Limited (UOB) announced that they would close the accounts of Myanmar, and had already stopped providing banking services for Myanmar Airways International. Other Singapore banks are expected to follow suit, following signaling from the Monetary Authority of Singapore and the additional reporting requirements due to the Financial Action Task Force blacklist. A Bangladesh bank froze the accounts of the two sanctioned banks.  Government revenue is flat or declining. While officially a secret, projections built into the annual Union Taxation Law paint a grim picture. The Internal Revenue Department has warned that revenue from lotteries, income tax, corporate taxes, natural resource rents, and customs duties have all stayed flat or contracted since the coup; only rents from oil and gas exports have gone up. Tax authorities are now specifically hitting medical professionals with preemptive taxes. According to data compiled by the opposition National Unity Government (NUG), the Central Bank of Myanmar has compelled banks, state-owned enterprises and insurance companies to buy an estimated 26.5 trillion kyat in bonds, $3.1 billion at the black market rate, since the coup. With an inability to repay, and an NUG pledge that the bonds will not be honored, these are additional liabilities for banks that are already saddled with non-performing loans. The regime is broke and may have turned on the printing presses. The NUG estimates that the military government has printed up to 20 trillion kyat, roughly $5.1 billion at black market rates, since the coup, partially explaining the high inflation.   Sanctions take a bite In July 2023, the junta issued a K20,000 note, the highest denomination, creating an inflationary spike and a further decline in the currency’s value. It’s supposed to be a limited issue currency, but with 14% inflation, a higher denominated note may be required. While international sanctions have not resulted in a massive seizure of funds, they’ve not been insignificant either. The U.S.immediately froze $1.1 billion of Central Bank of Myanmar assets following the coup. The European Union froze $503 million when it sanctioned the Ministry of Oil and Gas Enterprise. More importantly, the sanctions have made everything harder for the junta.  The NUG has identified 13 other banks around the world that are holding some $5.5 billion in Central Bank of Myanmar assets, 67% of which are in nine banks in Singapore. Should the NUG ever convince the Singapore government to freeze those assets, it would deliver the coup de grâce.  A jetty for oil tankers at Madae island, Kyaukpyu, Rakhine state, Myanmar. With the exception of gas and oil exports to Thailand and China, Myanmar’s exports have been hard hit. Credit: Soe Zeya Tun/Reuters This degree of economic mismanagement is a crime in itself, right up there with the military’s daily war crimes. The economy is the regime’s Achilles heel and they don’t have…

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Troops kill 2 men in Myanmar’s Kachin state

Three men from Kachin state’s Momauk township died on the same day after running into junta troops, locals told Radio Free Asia on Friday. On Wednesday, a column of around 250 troops stormed Au Htan Yang village. They stopped two men who were riding a motorcycle to the village, according to a local who didn’t want to be named for safety reasons. “When the column was entering Au Htan Yang village, two young men riding down from Pang Kawng Mu village were arrested and interrogated,” the local said.  “One was tied up on his back and killed. The other one was killed at the garbage dump of Dawt Hpon Yan village [Yin Kwe Taung village].” The troops then took another 10 people to use as human shields, according to the local. As they headed towards the headquarters of the anti-junta Kachin Independence Army, one man in his 40s, identified as Chit Min, was killed by a shell explosion. “The young people were crouching down when the heavy artillery landed,” the local said. “Chit Min was not able to crouch and was hit. His body was found on the morning of August 31.” The other nine hostages were released on Thursday evening, the resident added. Kachin state-based news organization 74 Media reported Friday that around 100 people from villages in the township fled to a Christian church and other ‘safe places’ while the battle between the troops and the Kachin Independence Army continued. Translated by RFA Burmese. Edited by Mike Firn and Taejun Kang.

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Once free of charge, North Korean eBooks will cost money to access

For a country closed off from the global internet, North Korea does offer its citizens at least a few high-tech conveniences.  In the Miraewon electronic library system, for example, far-flung rural residents can visit their local library to read an electronic copy of any book in the national collection in Pyongyang. The service was free of charge – until now. Authorities are telling patrons that starting in September, they must pay 1 million won, or US$120, a year – a huge sum in North Korea – angering people who use it most frequently, a resident of South Hamgyong province, north of Pyongyang, told RFA Korean on condition of anonymity for security reasons. “These measures were recently delivered to each city and county Miraewon through local party organizations, ” she said. The Miraewon, which can be translated into English as the “Future Institute”, has a portal in every city and county in North Korea, and residents can use it to access books housed in Pyongyang’s Grand People’s Study House via the intranet, an online system separate from the global internet. The Grand People’s Study House and the Kim Il-Sung Square in front of it are seen in Pyongyang, North Korea, in  2009. Credit: Reuters For some residents, this is the only way they can access materials on science and technology. The system has been a godsend for agriculture students looking to read up on farming techniques, animal husbandry, or for factory technicians in search of technical manuals or ways to improve efficiency. So the move would deprive readers of knowledge they need to more effectively do their jobs, a resident of the eastern province of South Pyongan said. “Here in Sukchon county, we’re an agricultural district, so there are farm technicians and students studying things like breed cultivation and wetland farming,” she said. “The Miraewon has physical copies of propaganda novels and the country’s masterpieces like the Complete Collection of the Works of [former leader] Kim Jong Il, but for anything related to science or technology, they must be read through the National Data Communication Network.”   College students and technicians are complaining that the country prioritizes the propaganda pieces, which aren’t useful to their daily lives. “They complain … that the authorities are monopolizing the most important science and technology books and force them to access them only through the National Data Communication Network, and now they are even charging fees for it,” she said. “How can a county that hides knowledge like this ever develop economically?”   Translated by Claire Shinyoung Oh Lee. Edited by Eugene Whong.

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Myanmar military shells Bago region townships, injuring 8 civilians

Junta heavy artillery attacks on two townships in central Myanmar’s Bago region have injured eight people, including a child, according to the Karen National Union. The political group which represents ethnic Karen issued a statement Monday, saying a four-year-old child and three women were hurt by shells in Kyauktaga township the previous day. Troops stationed near the township fired four shells at Ka Nyin Kyoe village, injuring four-year-old May Myat Noe Wai, 66-year-old San Htay, 52-year-old San San and 45-year-old Pyone Pyone Yi, according to locals who didn’t want to be named for safety reasons. They said San Htay was critically injured and five houses were destroyed in the attack. In another attack on Saturday, a 40-year-old woman and three 25-year-old men were injured when troops stationed in Nyaunglebin township fired three shells at Kyoe Gyi village, according to the KNU. It said seven houses were destroyed by heavy artillery. The majority of ethnic Karen who live in the region are Christian. An artillery attack on Aug. 20 destroyed one of their churches in Kyaukkyi township, the KNU said. The junta has not issued a statement on the shelling. However, its regional spokesperson, Tin Oo, told Radio Free Asia that troops were trying to bring stability to the region because the KNU affiliated Karen National Liberation Army and local People’s Defense Forces had entered some townships in eastern Bago. He said the townships were now under the control of junta troops. Along with heavy artillery attacks, the junta has been carrying out airstrikes in the region. On Aug. 18, planes attacked Kyaukkyi township four times, killing one civilian and injuring four others, the KNU said. Nearly 100,000 residents of eastern Bago have been forced to flee their homes since the February 2021 coup, according to the United Nations. Translated by RFA Burmese. Edited by Mike Firn and Taejun Kang.

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IMF: China leads as global fossil fuel subsidies hit record $7 trillion

Global fossil fuel subsidies hit a record U.S.$7 trillion, equivalent to more than 7% of global gross domestic product in 2022, the International Monetary Fund said. The subsidies are financial support from governments that make fossil fuels like oil, gas, and coal cheaper to produce or buy. Subsidies for coal, oil and natural gas in 2022 represented more than world governments spent on education and two-thirds of what was spent on healthcare. According to the IMF report released Thursday, governments provided support to consumers and businesses during the surge in global energy prices, a consequence of Russia’s incursion into Ukraine and the economic rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic. The IMF’s report comes as the world witnesses its highest average monthly temperatures on record.  When burned, fossil fuels emit harmful pollutants that contribute to global warming and intensify extreme weather events. They also contaminate the air with toxins, harming our respiratory systems and other vital organs and killing millions yearly. By fuel product, undercharging for oil products accounted for nearly half the subsidies, coal another 30%, and natural gas almost 20% (underpricing for electricity accounts for the remainder), the report said. By region, East Asia and the Pacific accounted for nearly half the global subsidy, according to the IMF.  Meanwhile, by country, in absolute terms, China contributed by far the most to total subsidies ($2.2 trillion) in 2022, followed by the United States ($760 billion), Russia ($420 billion), India ($350 billion), and the European Union ($310 billion).  Graphic showing yearly global fossil fuel subsidies. Credit: IMF The bulk of global subsidies accounted for in the study fall into what the IMF termed implicit subsidies, which arise when governments do not adequately charge for the environmental damage caused by the combustion of fossil fuels.  Such damage encompasses air pollution and climate change, with the impact forecast to grow due to the rising consumption of fossil fuels by developing countries.  The IMF said explicit subsidies, in which consumers pay less than the supply costs of fossil fuels, have tripled since 2020, from $0.5 trillion to $1.5 trillion in 2022. The figure is similar to the estimates from the Canada-based think tank, International Institute for Sustainable Development, released Wednesday, that said the world’s biggest economies, the G20, provided a record $1.4 trillion in public money for fossil fuels in 2022 despite the promise to reduce spending.  That includes investments by state-owned enterprises and loans from public finance institutions.  The G20 nations, which cause 80% of global carbon emissions, pledged to phase out “inefficient” fossil fuel subsidies in 2009. Comprehensively reforming fossil fuel prices by removing explicit fuel subsidies and imposing corrective taxes such as a carbon tax would reduce global carbon dioxide emissions by 43% below “business as usual” levels in 2030 (34% below 2019 levels) the IMF said.  It added that this would be in line with keeping global warming to ‘well below’ 2 degrees Celsius and towards 1.5 degrees Celsius. “Underpricing fossil fuels implies that governments forgo a valuable source of much-needed revenue and undermines distributional and poverty reduction objectives since most of the benefits from undercharging accrue to wealthier households,” the IMF report said. “The gap between efficient and current fuel prices is often substantial given, not least, the damages from climate change and the large number of people dying prematurely from fossil fuel air pollution exposure (4.5 million a year).” The IMF said fuel price reform would avert about 1.6 million premature deaths yearly from local air pollution by 2030. Edited by Mike Firn and Taejun Kang.

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Wagner head plane crash provokes discussion in China

Russia’s civil aviation agency said Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin was on an airplane that crashed near Moscow Wednesday. It has fueled a wave of online discussion in China, where some drew comparisons to the Chinese Communist Party’s not so distant past. No cause for the crash was provided, but Wagner-flagged Telegram accounts blamed Russian air defenses for shooting down the Embraer jet. Prigozhin’s death comes exactly two months – to the day – after the Wagner Group undertook an armed rebellion against the Russian Armed Forces, seizing control of a Russian military office in the city of Rostov-on-Don and briefly marching on Moscow. According to the Wagner Group, Prigozhin was among 10 people who lost their lives in the crash involving a private plane flying from Moscow to St. Petersburg that came down less than half an hour after taking off. The group posted what is believed to be a video of the crash on social media platforms, showing an airplane crashing and burning. They confirmed that Prigozhin had died, describing him as a hero and a patriot. They further claimed that he died at the hands of “Russian traitors.” Eyewitness footage of the crash site of a plane linked to Wagner Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, near Kuzhenkino, Tver region, Russia, August 23, 2023, in this screen grab taken from a video. Credit: Ostorozhno Novosti/Handout via Reuters Although the news broke in the middle of the night in China, keywords related to “Prigozhin” quickly trended on the social media app Weibo, which had 255 million daily users as of March of this year. Numerous bloggers also uploaded late-night videos discussing the implications of the Prigozhin incident. China’s earlier official response to Wagner Group’s brief mutiny was muted, with a Foreign Ministry statement on June 25 calling it “Russia’s internal affair,” adding that China “supports Russia in maintaining national stability.” But some experts interviewed by the state media outlet China Daily expressed concerns about the stability of China’s friend and neighbor. “The conflict between mercenaries and the Russian army is only the tip of the iceberg about the inherent contradictions in Russian society,” said Yu Sui, a professor at the China Center for Contemporary World Studies. Challenging the leadership Many online commentators remarked on the inherent risk of standing up to autocrats in what some of them dared to call “totalitarian” states. “Prigozhin, the head of the mercenaries, clearly didn’t understand politics. Didn’t he watch House of Cards? He made the mistake of rebelling against Putin,” blogger Yojia Fleet wrote. “Breaking news! Prigozhin’s private plane crashed north of Moscow. After offending Putin, he didn’t live long. As for the cause of his death, we can only speculate,” wrote another blogger who goes by the name of Wang Xiaodong Some Chinese netizens created polls such as “Who’s behind Prigozhin’s plane crash?” to attract attention and web traffic. Online comparisons were also made to the “Russian version of the Lin Biao incident,” a reference to a top leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and Chairman Mao Zedong’s chosen successor. In 1971, he is believed to have died when his plane nosedived into the grasslands of Outer Mongolia. China’s official line is that Lin planned to assassinate Mao and when his plot failed he tried to flee Beijing for Moscow, but with insufficient fuel to complete the flight. Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Chinese President Xi Jinping toast during their dinner in the Moscow Kremlin, Russia, March 21, 2023. CREDIT: Pavel Byrkin, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File Professor Yang Haiying of Japan’s Shizuoka University said the reason that online commentators were calling the incident the “Russian version of the Lin Biao incident” was because both China and Russia are dictatorships.  “Chinese citizens are paying attention to this because of the close relationship between Xi and Putin. If anyone opposes Putin, their fate is sealed, just as if anyone opposes Xi, they might follow Lin Biao’s path,” said Yang. However, Hu Ping, honorary editor of the New York-based Beijing Spring magazine, said that the relationship between Prigozhin and Putin cannot be directly compared to that of Lin Biao and Mao Zedong. He added that Lin Biao’s accident was shocking all the same, and Prigozhin’s death was dramatic, sparking discussions online. “For the CCP, this isn’t politically sensitive because it’s an external event, but a dramatic one,” said Hu. “With the Chinese government supporting Russia in the war against Ukraine and Xi Jinping often comparing himself to Putin, these factors naturally lead to speculation.” Political commentator Wang Jian said that Chinese netizens were fascinated with the latest news because of China’s good relationship with Russia, but warned that government voices might use the news to make Chinese citizens even more afraid to challenge the government. “With issues like unemployment and dropping house prices, people are anxious,” said Wang. “The government is unpredictable. The focus of Chinese netizens on external events has decreased because of the economic downturn. But government online commentators might create an atmosphere that suggests disloyalty will lead to bad consequences.” Wang also alluded to the CCP’s complete grip on the military, saying it was unlikely that China could experience a mutiny similar to Russia’s. He added that Beijing won’t need to leverage the incident to strengthen control over the military. Edited by Mike Firn and Taejun Kang.

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G20 spent a record $1.4 trillion on fossil fuels in 2022, report says

The world’s biggest economies, the G20, provided a record U.S.$1.4 trillion in public money for fossil fuels in 2022 despite the promise to reduce spending, a new study by a think tank said.  “The 2022 energy price crisis, brought about by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has catapulted public financial support for fossil fuels to new levels,” said the International Institute for Sustainable Development, or IISD, in its analysis, Fanning the Flames, released on Wednesday. The amount is more than double the pre-pandemic and pre-energy crisis levels of 2019 and more than four times the annual average in the previous decade, the Canada-based organization said. When burned, fossil fuels emit harmful pollutants that contribute to global warming and intensify extreme weather events. They also contaminate the air with toxins, harming our respiratory systems and other vital organs and killing millions yearly. Of the funding, the largest share of $1 trillion was allocated as fossil fuel subsidies, while $322 billion was in the form of state-owned enterprise investments and an additional $50 billion as public financial institution loans.  “While much of this was support for consumers, around one-third ($440 billion) was driving investment in new fossil fuel production,” the report said, adding such support “perpetuates the world’s reliance on fossil fuels, paving the way for yet more energy crises due to market volatility and geopolitical security risks.” “These figures are a stark reminder of the massive amounts of public money G20 governments continue to pour into fossil fuels – despite the increasingly devastating impacts of climate change,” said Tara Laan, a senior associate with the IISD and lead author of the study.  The IISD said the increase in investment is against the expressed pledge in the 2015 Paris Agreement and such continued investments in fossil fuels greatly hinder the chances of meeting the climate targets, as they promote greenhouse gas emissions and diminish the cost-effectiveness of renewable energy. It said that G20 nations should redirect their financial investments from fossil fuels to targeted, sustainable support for social protection and the expansion of renewable energy. This aerial photo taken on  Nov. 28, 2022 shows a cargo ship loaded with coal berthing at a port in Lianyungang, in China’s eastern Jiangsu province. Credit: AFP The report comes just ahead of the pivotal G20 leaders’ conference scheduled in New Delhi on Sept. 9-10, where discussions on climate change consensus are anticipated. The meeting could set the tone for the UN’s COP28 climate change conference in Dubai in November. The report lauded the achievement of G20 chair India as it reduced its fossil fuel subsidies by 76% from 2014 to 2022 while significantly increasing support for clean energy.  The IISD urged G20 leaders to eliminate fossil fuel subsidies in developed nations by 2025 and in all other countries by 2030. The world leaders had agreed to phase out “inefficient” fossil fuel subsidies at the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow two years ago. “International public financing for fossil fuels has decreased in recent years but is still nearly four times greater than support for clean energy,” the report said, adding it came in the form of international aid, export credit support, and concessional financing, such as equity, grants, loans, and loan guarantees. China is among the top four largest providers of international public finance for fossil fuels in absolute dollar terms, providing $6.7 billion annually between 2019 and 2021.  Japan provided $10.6 billion, while Canada provided $8.5 billion. South Korea came in third with a $7.3 billion investment.  The most common fuels supported were oil and gas at 88%.  The report also noted that G20 countries announced more than a quarter trillion dollars in subsidies for renewable power generation between 2020 and June 2023, with the United States, Germany and China leading the chart.  “While positive, the renewable subsidies are dwarfed by subsidies for fossil fuels, which were over USD 1.4 trillion in the three years from 2020 to 2022,” the report said. The IISD also said while global investment in renewable energy reached a record high of $500 billion in 2022, it was still only around half of the investment in fossil fuels. Edited by Mike Firn and Taejun Kang.

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Pacific island countries facing faster sea level rise, UN says

The low-lying Pacific islands face severe threats due to rising sea levels, which are increasing quicker than anticipated, while heightened temperatures impact marine habitats, according to a new U.N. meteorological body report. The Pacific region is experiencing an approximate increase of 4 millimeters of sea level rise annually in certain regions, which is higher than the worldwide average of 3.4 mm per year, the World Meteorological Organization, or WMO, said in its 2022 State of the Climate report released on Friday. The Pacific islands most vulnerable to this rising sea level include nations such as Kiribati, Tuvalu, the Marshall Islands, and the Maldives. These low-lying nations, often no more than a few meters above sea level, are alarmingly at the forefront of this crisis. Their unique geographies and limited land mass make them especially susceptible to even the slightest increase in sea level, threatening their very existence and the livelihoods of their residents. Separately, the report added that ocean heat and acidification threaten vulnerable marine ecosystems and their way of life. It said that weather-related disasters and climate change impacts are posing socio-economic risks and effects on key sectors like agriculture in the South-West Pacific region, which comprises all countries between Malaysia and Kiribati. The ocean absorbs over 90% of the surplus heat in our climate system, the WMO said, as the warming is responsible for about 40% of the average global sea-level increase due to the thermal expansion of seawater. It also impacts ocean currents and storm patterns. In 2022, the South-West Pacific experienced 35 recorded natural disasters that killed more than 700 people, with floods accounting for over 70% of these incidents, according to the report. These events impacted over 8 million individuals, inflicting an economic toll nearing U.S.$9 billion. In the Philippines and Fiji, storms were the predominant reason for the high death toll and the many affected individuals. A woman walks past a flooded market caused by monsoon rains and the recent typhoon Doksuri, in Balagtas, Bulacan province, Philippines, July 29, 2023. Credit: Reuters Even though the number of reported disaster events decreased in 2022, economic losses increased mainly due to a series of flooding events in Australia. Last year’s flood damage of U.S.$8.5 billion was over four times the 20-year average from 2002 to 2021. “Early warning is one of the most effective ways of reducing damage from disasters, as it empowers people to make risk-informed decisions for food security, as well as other sectors,” said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas. “Despite continuous efforts to strengthen multi-hazard early warning systems, the present report clearly shows that there are still significant gaps to be addressed to strengthen these systems to reduce the adverse impacts of hydrometeorological hazards in the region.” El Nino this year might make it worse The WMO said the three-year-long La Nina event, from 2020 to the start of 2023, had a temporary cooling influence, though 2022 still ranks within the top ten warmest years for the region, with the mean temperature of 0.2 to 0.3 degrees Celsius higher than during the last intense La Nina event in 2011. The report said that prominent marine heatwaves persisted for over six months in a vast region northeast of Australia and south of Papua New Guinea, specifically in the Solomon and Coral Seas. The region has now entered El Nino, which means drier and hotter weather. “This will have a big impact on the South-West Pacific region as it is frequently associated with higher temperatures, disruptive weather patterns and more marine heatwaves and coral bleaching,” said Taalas.  According to the WMO, the upper ocean (between zero and 700 meters below the surface) has warmed since 1993 in most of the Pacific’s South-West region. The report said that many regions in the Pacific region, including the Solomon Sea, Banda and Timor Seas, and regions east of the Philippines and the southern shoreline of Indonesia, have experienced significant warming, with the rates two to three times higher than the global average. The WMO said the glacier size in the western part of the Indonesian island of New Guinea decreased by 15% from 0.27 to 0.23 square kilometers between July 2021 and April 2022, while ice thickness dropped 24 meters from June 2010 to early 2021, with only 6 meters remaining in December 2022. July had warmest ocean temperature Earlier this month, another report from the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, or C3S, said the global average sea surface temperatures continued to rise after a long period of unusually high temperatures since April 2023, reaching a new high of 20.96 degrees Celsius (69.73 degrees Fahrenheit) in July. Global ocean temperatures are usually warmest in March, so scientists say the record will likely keep increasing. Overall, the global mean sea surface temperature for the month surpassed the 1991-2020 average by 0.51 degrees Celsius, Copernicus said in its report on July 8. For July, the North Atlantic recorded temperatures of 1.05 C higher than usual, while marine heatwaves were observed south of Greenland, in the Labrador Sea, within the Caribbean region, and throughout the Mediterranean Sea. “These records have dire consequences for both people and the planet exposed to ever more frequent and intense extreme events,” said Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of the C3S. “2023 is currently the third warmest year to date at 0.43ºC above the recent average, with the average global temperature in July at 1.5°C above pre industrial levels.” “Even if this is only temporary, it shows the urgency for ambitious efforts to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions, which are the main driver behind these records,” she said. July also had the warmest global air temperature, according to the WMO. Edited by Mike Firn and Taejun Kang.

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Suu Kyi’s son urges young Burmese to ‘never give up’ on democracy

Radio Free Asia’s Soe San Aung spoke with Kim Aris, the son of former State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi, last week.  Suu Kyi served as Myanmar’s de facto leader following national elections in 2015, which her National League of Democracy won by a landslide. The party also won the 2020 national elections, but the military seized power from the democratically elected government on Feb. 1, 2021.  The army immediately arrested civilian leaders, including Suu Kyi, who were in Naypyidaw for the convening of the newly elected lower house of parliament. She was held at Naypyidaw Prison until last month, when a source told RFA that she was relocated to “a more comfortable state-owned residence.” Aris is living in the United Kingdom and has been unable to contact his mother since the military coup. Aung San Suu Kyi smiles at her youngest son, Kim Aris, during their visit to Shwedagon Pagoda in Yangon, Myanmar, July 12, 2011. Credit: Khin Maung Win/AP RFA: You’ve been involved in supporting the Burmese community in London and you’ve been finding funds to support back home. First, tell me what you’ve been doing to support the spring revolution, the nationwide wave of popular resistance to the Myanmar military following the 2021 coup.  Kim Aris: But I never really wish to be a public figure. I kind of already stand by and see what others do and what is needed. And as my mother’s son, I have a unique position whereby I can speak out to the world. Outside of the Burmese community, people aren’t very aware of what’s happening. So I’m doing what I can to raise funds and awareness for the cause.  RFA: As we know, your mother, Aung San Suu Kyi, was once given the chance to leave Burma, but chose to stay with the Burmese people over her family. How would you describe your mother?  Kim Aris: It always saddens and angers me that my mother has sometimes been portrayed as cold hearted because she was unable to be by my father’s side while he was dying. I was nursing him at that time, and I can say that he did not wish for her to return to England.  We wanted to be by her side in Burma. Unfortunately, the military couldn’t find it in their heart to allow him his dying wish. And from my point of view, I’ve never felt like she left me. I was with her when she was first put under house arrest in Burma. And it never felt like she abandoned me in any way.  Also in Burma, everybody’s now lost their parents to the military. It’s not as though I’ve actually lost my mother. People in Burma are going through far worse than what I have been through. It’s lucky for me that my mother left me here in England, where it’s safe. I feel privileged. Compared to what’s happening to the people in Burma, I have a very easy life. Aung San Suu Kyi smiles to supporters as she sees off her son Kim Aris at Yangon International Airport, Dec. 7, 2010. Credit: Khin Maung Win/AP RFA: Now your mother, Aung San Suu Kyi, is under house arrest again. Have you had any contact with her?  Kim Aris: As far as I’m aware, she’s not actually under house arrest. She’s in prison somewhere. The military has said that she’s been moved into house arrest, but there’s been no evidence that that’s actually the case.  I have had no contact with her. And the military hasn’t responded to any requests I have made for contact or to inform me of her whereabouts. In the past, I have had some contact when she was under house arrest in Yangon, but now I don’t know what condition she’s being kept under or where she is.  RFA: We are aware that you went to the Burmese embassy to give a birthday gift to your mother, but they didn’t let you in and they didn’t even say anything to you. How many times have you sent a request to the junta to get in contact with her?  Kim Aris: There’s actually very little point to corresponding with these people because I haven’t received any response ever. So I’ve tried various other avenues, such as through the British Foreign Office and via the International Red Cross, but they’ve had the same result, which is no response.  RFA: I’m sorry to hear that. But in the last amnesty, they commuted some of your mother’s sentence. What was your reaction?  Kim Aris: It’s a military gesture. The military has used these tactics in the past to try and appease the international community whilst they still continue to perpetrate all sorts of atrocities against their own people every day. And even with the reduced sentence, my mother would still be over 100 when she’s released.  RFA: So you’ve been back to Burma, like when your mother was released in 2010. What was your perception about the country?  Kim Aris: Well, obviously the situation there was incredibly sad, especially since the country was going through a period of development. There was a great deal to look forward to. Now, all of that has been taken away. The country has gone backwards since the coup. So it seems like it is worse now than it was back in 1988.  RFA: Yeah, it’s like the country is in chaos right now. You know, young people are fighting back for their freedom. What’s your point of view about today’s crisis? Kim Aris: Well, from what I can gather, the situation is not sustainable for anybody. The military aren’t as strong as people think they may be. They have lots of high tech weaponry, but they do not have the manpower that the people have. And I hope that this war cannot go on for too much longer. No more bloodshed.  But obviously, that’s not going to happen any time soon. Hopefully things will play out before…

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