South China Sea

A turbulent South China Sea: 5 things that may happen in 2025

TAIPEI, Taiwan/MANILA – The South China Sea has become one of the world’s most perilous geopolitical hot spots in recent years, with China stepping up the reinforcement of its expansive claims and countries from outside the region getting increasingly involved. Here are five areas to watch in 2025: Taiwan Strait The situation in the Taiwan Strait has been becoming notably more tense, with nearly 3,000 incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone between January and November 2024, as well as two major military exercises – Joint Sword A and B – coinciding with important political events on the self-ruled island. Chinese leader Xi Jinping reiterated in his in 1999 to serve as an outpost. In the last few years, China’s coast guard has been blocking and disrupting Philippine resupply missions to the ship, the BRP Sierra Madre, and the troops stationed there. On June 17, 2024, in an unprecedented confrontation, China coast guard personnel, armed with pikes and machetes, punctured Philippine boats and seized firearms during a Philippine rotate and resupply mission, wounding a Filipino sailor. Both sides later called for de-escalation. On Dec. 12, China said it had granted permission to the Philippines to resupply the “illegally grounded” warship on Second Thomas Shoal on a humanitarian basis. But the June 17 incident showed that the situation could easily escalate into conflict, especially given the proximity of Second Thomas Shoal to a Chinese naval base on Mischief Reef, an artificial island that China built and has fully militarized. Manila and Washington signed a Mutual Defense Treaty in 1951 under which both parties are obliged to support each other in the event of an armed attack. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in November revealed that the U.S. military had set up a Task Force Ayungin, the Filipino name for the Second Thomas Shoal. Chief of the Philippine armed forces, Gen. Romeo Brawner Jr., told an RFA reporter in Manila that his country was pursuing a three-pronged strategy when it comes to maritime defense: to establish an effective presence; to create effective deterrence and modernize military equipment; and to leverage alliances and partnerships with like-minded nations. Beijing, however, is not expected to give up its demand that Manila removes the BRP Sierra Madre and leave the disputed shoal. For its part, the Philippines is determined to defend it. “We’ll never abandon our territory at Ayungin,” insisted Col. Xerxes Trinidad, the Philippine armed forces’ spokesperson. Vietnam’s island building Vietnam’s island building in the South China Sea has reached a record, with the total area created in the first six months of 2024 equaling that of 2022 and 2023 combined, according to a study by the Washington-based Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI). Between November 2023 and June 2024, Hanoi created 692 new acres (280 ha) of land across a total of 10 features in the Spratly archipelago. Vietnam’s overall dredging and landfill totaled about 2,360 acres (955 ha), roughly half of China’s 4,650 acres (1,881.7 ha). “Three years from when it first began, Vietnam is still surprising observers with the ever-increasing scope of its dredging and landfill in the Spratly Islands,” AMTI said. Vietnam occupies 27 features and has been carrying out large-scale reclamation works on some over the past year. <imgsrc=”” alt=”Satellite image of Barque Canada Reef, May 11, 2024.” height=”813″ width=”1500″>Satellite image of Barque Canada Reef, May 11, 2024.(AMTI/Maxar Technologies) A new 3,000-meter airstrip is nearly finished on Barque Canada reef, where the total landfill area more than doubled in one year to nearly 2.5 square kilometers, or 617.7 acres, by October 2024. Vietnam has had only one airstrip on an island called Spratly, measuring 1,300 meters, but besides Barque Canada, AMTI said that “it would be unsurprising” if Hanoi also considers runways on Pearson and Ladd reefs. New bases and runways “would give Vietnam a position on the other side of China’s ‘Big Three’ islands,” said Tom Shugart, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security. He was referring to China-developed Fiery Cross, Subi and Mischief reefs, which are the largest artificial islands in the South China Sea. The next four largest are all newly expanded Vietnamese reefs. “Its progress in the last five months suggests that Hanoi is determined to maximize the strategic potential of the features it occupies,” said AMTI, adding that “it remains difficult to say when the expansion will end—and what new capabilities Vietnam will have once it has.” Code of Conduct in the South China Sea Malaysia is taking over as chairman of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, from Laos this month and every time the chair changes hands, the question of a legally binding code of conduct (COC) for all competing parties in the South China Sea surfaces. China and ASEAN countries have been negotiating a COC after reaching an initial Declaration of Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea in 2002. More than two decades later, it seems many obstacles remain despite Beijing’s repeated assertions that the consultation process is going well and agreement is close. Premier Li Qiang told an ASEAN summit in October that China and the bloc were “striving for early conclusion” of the code of conduct. China and five other parties, including four ASEAN countries – Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam – hold conflicting claims over parts of the South China Sea but China’s claim is by far the most expansive, covering nearly 90% of the sea. China is adamantly against what it sees as “a politicization” of the COC, as well as any “external interference” in the matter. Yet its assertiveness has prompted some countries to seek a counterweight from outside ASEAN. “Negotiations on the COC continue at a snail’s pace,” former Thai Foreign Minister Kantathi Suphamongkhon told Reuters news agency in October. “An agreement seems impossible,” said Philippine legal expert, former Supreme Court justice Antonio Carpio. “China will never agree to some provisions, Vietnam to some others and so on. The target of concluding the COC by 2026, therefore,…

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Laos shutters Chinese-owned potash mine over sinkholes

Laos has ordered a Chinese-owned potash mine believed responsible for two massive sinkholes in Khammouane province to cease operations until further notice, and to fill the sinkholes in, an official told Radio Free Asia. On Dec. 4, a sinkhole measuring 20 meters (65 feet) wide and 10 meters (33 feet) deep opened up on farmland in Thakhaek district’s Pak Peng village. On Dec. 21, another sinkhole — about half the size of the first — formed nearby. Residents suspect the sinkholes are a result of excavation at a potash mine in neighboring Nong Bok district, operated by Sino-Agri International Potash Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Asia Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co., Ltd., which is linked to entities directed by China’s governing State Council. After a month of central government inspections of the mine, the cause remains unclear. However, the company has been ordered to fill both sinkholes, a government official said Monday, speaking to RFA Lao on condition of anonymity for security reasons. “The two sinkholes will be filled up with dirt. The company will carry out this task,” the official said, adding that after meeting with central government officials, a cause has not yet been determined. RELATED STORIES Villagers blame Chinese potash mine for massive sinkhole in central Laos Second sinkhole discovered near mining operation in central Laos At Lao potash mine, flood of Chinese workers are displacing local laborers Because fault has not been determined, the company may not have to pay compensation, the official said. A Pak Peng resident told RFA that those who live near the sinkholes are terrified of further collapses. “They are scared. The sinkholes are right in the middle of the rice fields,” the villager said. Filling in the holes is only a temporary fix, a Lao expert told RFA. “Underground extraction is very dangerous. One day the mine will collapse,” he said. “Dirt is excavated and water flushes will cause more sinkholes over the next 20 years. It won’t be long before we start seeing the consequences.” Translated by RFA Lao. Edited by Eugene Whong. We are : Investigative Journalism Reportika Investigative Reports Daily Reports Interviews Surveys Reportika

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Myanmar enacts cybersecurity law that aims to restrict use of VPNs

Myanmar’s junta has enacted a cybersecurity law that will penalize unauthorized provision of virtual private networks, or VPNs, which many people use to circumvent internet restrictions to get access to news and information and to report on what is going on in their country. The law, which came into effect on Wednesday, is aimed at preventing cyberattacks through electronic technology that threatens national sovereignty, peace, and stability, as well as to effectively investigate and bring charges against cybercrimes, the ruling military said in a statement published in newspapers. Myanmar cracked down on the internet and the media after the military ousted an elected government in early 2021, sparking an armed uprising that has raised questions about the sustainability of widely unpopular army rule. With the media under the control of the military largely a mouthpiece of the generals, many people rely on VPNs to skirt control and get access to independent and foreign media and to send material out of the country. The law sets out a penalty of six months in prison and a fine for “unauthorized VPN installation or service.” A VPN service provider told Radio Free Asia that the law could be disastrous for his business. “It’s really bad for us,” said the service provider, who declined to be identified for security reasons. “Even if there’s demand, we don’t dare sell it. We’ll keep an eye on whether they actually take action on it or not. If they really crack down on providing VPN service, we’ll have to register officially.” The law also sets out jail for up to six months, and or a fine, for distributing, transferring, copying or selling information that is “inappropriate for the public” through electronic technology. It also sets out jail of six months to a year for anyone found operating an illegal online gambling system. Illegal gambling, often organized by gangsters from China, has proliferated in more lawless parts of Myanmar and elsewhere in Southeast Asia. RELATED STORIES After 2024 setbacks, junta forces now control less than half of Myanmar Acts of charity bring light to wartime Myanmar Air, artillery strikes set grim benchmark for civilian casualties in Myanmar in 2024 A legal expert, who spoke on condition of anonymity for security reasons, told RFA that there should be a limit to the extent authorities can control online activity and the law posed a threat to public privacy and security. “If these technologies are used for gambling or for criminal purposes, there needs to be a provision to take effective action. However, we see that the law’s intent is to harm the public’s security and privacy,” he said. The law also states that Myanmar people living abroad can be punished. “Myanmar citizens residing in foreign countries shall be liable to punishment under this law if they commit any offense,” according to a copy of the legislation published in newspapers. Many Myanmar people living abroad try to report news from their country and organize opposition to the military via online communities. Edited by RFA Staff. We are : Investigative Journalism Reportika Investigative Reports Daily Reports Interviews Surveys Reportika

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Year in photos: Lens of empathy captures stories of resilience across borders

WASHINGTON — Radio Free Asia photojournalist Gemunu Amarasinghe has had a distinguished career capturing images across Asia. His ability to access intimate moments sheds new light on the stories behind the struggle for freedom and human rights. In the special report, “In Washington, Myanmar democracy advocates push for a Breakthrough,” Amarasinghe captures the efforts of Myanmar’s National Unity Government in Washington, D.C., as Deputy Foreign Minister Moe Zaw Oo and press aide Aye Chan Mon navigate the complexities of international diplomacy. In “Nyah Mway: The boy who will forever be 13,” he delves into the tragedy of a young refugee from Myanmar who was fatally shot by police in Utica, New York. His photographs reveal the effect the incident has had on Nyah’s family and community, offering insight into broader issues of systemic violence and the experiences of displaced people in the United States. In “Five Years after a Summer of Protest, Hong Kong Exiles are Still Rebuilding Their Lives,” Amarasinghe chronicles the lives of Hong Kong activists who have resettled in the United States following the 2019 pro-democracy protests. Through his lens, Amarasinghe provides a comprehensive perspective on resilience and transition. Here are some of his photos: Aye Chan Mon, a press aide with Myanmar’s National Unity Government, works from home as her cat tries to intervene.(Gemunu Amarasinghe/RFA) Buddhist monks chant at the burial of Nyah Mway, 13, in Utica, New York, July 6, 2024.(Gemunu Amarasinghe/RFA) Hong Kong democracy activist Frances Hui stands outside the Hong Kong Economic and Trade Office in Washington, D.C., during a protest to mark World Press Freedom Day, May 2, 2024.(Gemunu Amarasinghe/RFA) Huen Lam visits the Franklin Delano Roosevelt Memorial in Washington, D.C., March 30, 2024.(Gemunu Amarasinghe/RFA) Edited by Jim Snyder. We are : Investigative Journalism Reportika Investigative Reports Daily Reports Interviews Surveys Reportika

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Xi Jinping Address on Taiwan

Will Xi Jinping Annex Taiwan in 2025?

In a chilling New Year’s address for 2025, Chinese President Xi Jinping declared that “no one can ever stop” China’s reunification with Taiwan, signaling an unyielding commitment to assert control over the democratic island. The speech has been widely interpreted as a veiled threat of forced occupation, intensifying fears of an imminent military confrontation in the Indo-Pacific region. Xi’s Hardline Stance: Reunification at Any Cost Xi framed the issue of Taiwan as a core national objective, leaving little room for compromise. “The complete reunification of our motherland is an unshakable mission,” he declared, reaffirming the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) long-standing goal of bringing Taiwan under Beijing’s control. Over the past year, China’s aggressive military maneuvers near the Taiwan Strait, including record-breaking incursions into Taiwanese airspace, have fueled speculation that Beijing is preparing for an occupation by force. Taiwan’s Resilience: Democracy Under Siege Taiwan, a vibrant democracy with a strong sense of national identity, has consistently resisted Beijing’s claims. President Lai Ching-te condemned Xi’s statements as a direct threat to Taiwan’s sovereignty, vowing to strengthen the island’s defenses. “Taiwan is not for sale, nor will it be bullied,” Lai asserted in his New Year’s response. The Taiwanese government has ramped up military spending, acquiring advanced weapons systems and forging deeper alliances with democratic nations to counter China’s growing aggression. However, the looming threat of an occupation continues to cast a shadow over the island’s future. A Pattern of Suppression: Lessons from Tibet and Hong Kong Beijing’s history of authoritarian expansion provides a stark warning to Taiwan. Tibet has endured decades of cultural and religious suppression under Chinese rule, while Hong Kong’s promised autonomy has been systematically dismantled in defiance of international agreements. Critics argue that Taiwan would face a similar fate under Chinese occupation, with its democratic institutions dismantled and freedoms crushed. Neighboring nations such as Vietnam, India, and the Philippines have also felt the brunt of China’s territorial ambitions, facing military incursions and aggressive claims over disputed regions. Check out our investigation report on the same titled, “The Geopolitical Weaponization of Maps by China”. Global Stakes: A Test for Democracy The international community faces a critical test in its response to Beijing’s ambitions. The United States, Japan, and other democratic allies have pledged support for Taiwan, viewing its independence as a cornerstone of regional stability. However, the prospect of a Chinese occupation raises the stakes significantly, potentially triggering a conflict that could destabilize the entire Indo-Pacific region. Xi’s rhetoric, coupled with China’s military posturing, underscores the urgency for the world to stand with Taiwan. Failure to act decisively could embolden Beijing to expand its authoritarian reach beyond Taiwan, setting a dangerous precedent for global security. Taiwan: A Beacon of Resistance As China tightens its grip, Taiwan stands as a beacon of resistance against authoritarianism. The island’s determination to defend its sovereignty sends a powerful message to the world: freedom and democracy must be protected at all costs. Xi Jinping’s vision of “reunification” is increasingly seen not as a peaceful resolution but as a prelude to occupation—a stark reminder of the CCP’s willingness to sacrifice global stability for its expansionist ambitions. The battle for Taiwan’s future has become a defining moment in the global struggle between democracy and authoritarianism.

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Does a video show ‘final moment’ of South Korean plane before crashing in Muan?

A video emerged in Chinese-language social media posts that claim it shows the “final moment” of the South Korean plane that crashed in the city of Muan on Dec. 29. But the claim is false. The video in fact has been shared online as early as September, months before the deadly plane crash. The video was shared on Douyin, the Chinese version of TikTok, on Dec. 31, as well as on Weibo. The Weibo post has been taken down. “179 people on the Korean plane were killed, the worst airplane disaster in South Korea. The last few minutes before the plane exploded,” the caption of the video reads. The clip appears to have been filmed inside a plane, with oxygen masks falling from above passenger seats. Several passengers are seen holding their mobile phones and filming, and some passengers appear to be chanting. Some Chinese social media users claimed this video showed the “final moment” of the South Korean plane that crashed in the city of Muan on Dec. 29.(Douyin and Weibo) The video and the claim began to circulate after the Jeju Air flight carrying 181 people crashed in a ball of flames as it was attempting to land in the South Korean city of Muan on Dec. 29, killing all but two of those on board in one of the country’s worst ever air disasters. But the claim is false. Old video A reverse image search found the video had been shared online as early as September, months before the deadly plane crash, as seen here and here. Russian state media Sputnik’s Arabic edition reported in September that the footage showed the scene of an Air Algerie flight to Istanbul returning an hour after takeoff due to a technical fault, causing panic among the passengers on board. The Air Algerie plane landed safely. Clues in the clip A closer examination of the video reveals that the crew members are dressed in blue uniforms, and the seats are also blue, which is not consistent with Jeju Air’s signature white and orange color scheme. Additionally, passengers can be heard chanting in the video, but the language they are using is not Korean. According to South Korean and Thai authorities, among the 181 passengers aboard the crashed Jeju Air flight, two were Thai nationals, while the rest were Korean. A Korean-speaking journalist from AFCL also confirmed that the chanting in the video is unrecognizable and was not in the Korean language. Edited by Taejun Kang. Asia Fact Check Lab (AFCL) was established to counter disinformation in today’s complex media environment. We publish fact-checks, media-watches and in-depth reports that aim to sharpen and deepen our readers’ understanding of current affairs and public issues. If you like our content, you can also follow us on Facebook, Instagram and X. We are : Investigative Journalism Reportika Investigative Reports Daily Reports Interviews Surveys Reportika

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After 2024 setbacks, junta forces now control less than half of Myanmar

Myanmar’s junta forces now control less than half the country after suffering major battlefield setbacks in 2024 -– including the loss of command headquarters in Shan and Rakhine states, several rebel groups said. In June, the Three Brotherhood Alliance of ethnic armies resumed offensive operations in Shan state. Within weeks, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army had captured Lashio, a city of 130,000 that is the region’s commercial and administrative hub and a gateway to China. Another member of the alliance, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, also seized the strategic Shan state townships of in Ann township on Dec. 20. Elsewhere in Rakhine, the military has been reinforcing troops in areas that it does control, residents said earlier this month. That includes Kyaukphyu, where China has plans for a port as well as energy facilities and oil and gas pipelines that run to its Yunnan province. In neighboring Chin state, ethnic rebels captured two townships last week, Chin Brotherhood Alliance spokesperson Salai Yaw Mang said. Several anti-junta groups are now in control of about 85 percent of the state, he said. Soldiers from the Karen National Liberation Army patrol in an area hit by a junta airstrike in Myawaddy, April 15, 2024.(Athit Perawongmetha/Reuters) Forced recruitment In Shan state, to the northeast, ethnic armed groups control 24 townships, with just Tangyang, Mongyai and Muse still held by the junta. The capture of the northeastern command headquarters outside of Lashio in late July was one of the most significant losses for the military in years. In total, ethnic armed groups and allied forces have seized 86 towns across the country, the Myanmar Peace Monitor of Burma News International reported on Dec. 23. In Sagaing, in central Myanmar –- viewed as a homeland for the majority ethnic Bamar people –- a major junta offensive is expected sometime next year, according to Htoo Khant Zaw, a spokesperson for the People’s Defense Comrade group based in Sagaing’s Ye-U township. “The regime is still forcibly recruiting young people, even in the cities,” he said. “They are providing training, and the offensive is expected to be launched by land and air in 2025.” Translated by Aung Naing. Edited by Matt Reed and Malcolm Foster. We are : Investigative Journalism Reportika Investigative Reports Daily Reports Interviews Surveys Reportika

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Myanmar’s Arakan Army takes a major town, says ready for talks

Myanmar’s Arakan Army insurgents captured the west coast town of Gwa from the military, a major step toward their goal of taking the whole of Rakhine state, and then said they were ready for talks with the junta. Gwa is on the coast in the south of Myanmar’s western-most state, 185 kilometers (115 miles) northwest of the main city of Yangon, and a gateway to the rice-basket Irrawaddy River delta. The AA said their fighters took control of Gwa on Sunday afternoon as junta troops fled but the military was trying to counter-attack with the help of its air force and navy guns. “The fighting is raging in some areas near Gwa. The junta council has sent reinforcements and they’re trying to re-enter,” the AA said in a statement late on Sunday. Residents reported blazes in the town from junta artillery and airstrikes. “Heavy weapons have landed in the town and everything is on fire,” said one resident who declined to be identified for safety reasons. Early on Sunday, a barrage of small-arms fire was heard as the AA launched their push, followed by air attacks, the resident said. “The small-arms fire has gone but now they’re bombing,” he told Radio Free Asia. The AA said it believed 700 junta soldiers had been killed in weeks of battle for the town, based on bodies found, information from prisoners and documents seized. It did not give any information about casualties on its side or about civilian casualties. It was not possible to independently verify the AA’s casualty figure and a spokesman for the junta that seized power in a 2021 coup did not respond to phone calls from RFA seeking comment. All sides in Myanmar play up their victories and their enemies’ losses while minimizing their own in public statements. The AA, one of Myanmar’s most powerful insurgent groups, has been accused of killings and other serious rights violations against the mostly Muslim Rohingya community. It denies that. RELATED STORIES Over one-third of Myanmar’s population to need aid by 2025: UNOCHA Myanmar appoints new defense minister as army struggles Myanmar to organize election in fewer than half of townships ‘Political means’ The capture of Gwa is another big step in a matter of days for AA troops, who are fighting for self-determination in Rakhine state. They took a major military base in Ann town on Dec. 20 and have now captured 14 of the state’s 17 townships, pushing the military into shrinking pockets of territory. The military is reinforcing its troops in the townships it controls – Sittwe, Kyaukphyu and Munaung, residents said this month. Neighboring China has economic interests in Myanmar, among them plans for a port in Kyaukphyu, where it also has energy facilities, including oil and gas pipelines that run to its Yunnan province. China, keen to end Myanmar’s conflict, has pressed two rebel groups in Shan state in the northeast to agree to ceasefires and talks. The AA praised China’s “active leadership” in promoting border stability and said it would talk at any time. “We always remain open to resolving the current internal issues through political means rather than military solutions,” the AA said. It did not refer to a ceasefire and said it believed its offensive over the past year would contribute to the “liberation” of all of the oppressed Myanmar people. The junta chief has also called for talks as his forces grapple with setbacks. The AA said it recognized and welcomed any foreign investment that contributed to development and said it would take care of investors. The Institute for Strategy and Policy (ISP-Myanmar), an independent research group, said this week that the AA controls 10 of the 11 Chinese projects in Rakhine state. The fall of the state capital of Sittwe to the AA would represent the end of military rule there, political analyst Than Soe Naing told RFA “Then the AA will have to talk about issues related to China’s interests,” he said. Edited by RFA Staff. We are : Investigative Journalism Reportika Investigative Reports Daily Reports Interviews Surveys Reportika

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Almost all 181 on board killed in South Korean plane crash

Updated Dec. 29, 2024, 04:37 a.m. ET. TAIPEI, Taiwan – A plane carrying 181 people crashed in a ball of flames as it was attempting to land in South Korea on Sunday, and all but two of those on board are presumed to have been killed, authorities said. Witnesses said they heard explosions and saw flames in an engine of the Jeju Air flight as it was trying to land at about 9:07 a.m. in the city of Muan, and authorities were investigating the possibility that its landing gear failed after a bird strike, the Yonhap News Agency reported. Video footage broadcast by TV stations showed the Boeing 737-800 plane coming onto a runway without deploying its landing gear. It skidded across the ground, hit a concrete wall, and exploded in a fireball. “The plane body was almost destroyed, and the dead are difficult to identify. It is taking time to identify the location of the remains and recover them,” the Jeollanam-do Fire Department said. “It is estimated that most of the 181 passengers, with the exception of the two who were rescued, died,” it said. The official death toll climbed through the day to 176, with three missing, as bodies were recovered from a smoldering crash site where some 1,500 rescue workers sifted through the wreckage. The BBC reported that “black box” flight data recorder had been recovered. Rescue workers take part in a salvage operation at the site of a plane crash at Muan International Airport, in Muan, South Korea, Dec. 29, 2024.(Kim Hong-Ji/Reuters) Jeju Air chief Kim E-bae made a public apology and extended condolences to the family members who lost their loved ones, vowing to provide all necessary support to the victims’ families. “Regardless of the cause, I take full responsibility,” Kim said. South Korea’s acting president, Choi Sang-mok visited the crash site and told officials to make all-out efforts in their search, and expressing deep condolences to the bereaved. He promised all possible government assistance. Choi has been serving as acting president since Friday, after the National Assembly voted to impeach Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, who was suspended less than two weeks after assuming the role from President Yoon Suk Yeol on Dec. 14. “I believe no words of consolation will be enough,” Choi said. “The government will spare no effort in supporting the bereaved families,” the acting president added. Updates confirmed dead toll and adds comment from airline CEO. We are : Investigative Journalism Reportika Investigative Reports Daily Reports Interviews Surveys Reportika

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