‘We’ve been in this situation for a long time’

As Taiwan gears up for presidential and legislative elections next Saturday, voters on the streets of the democratic island’s capital Taipei say a Chinese invasion isn’t at the top of their list of concerns. Despite the Chinese Communist Party’s ongoing information wars, political infiltration and military incursions in the Taiwan Strait, some of the island’s 23 million people say that such worries aren’t at the forefront of their minds. As the country counts down the last days of a presidential race, voters must choose between incumbent ruling Democratic Progressive Party Vice President Lai Ching-te, who has a strong track record of standing up to China, against the more China-friendly opposition candidates – Hou Yu-ih for the Kuomintang and Ko Wen-je for the Taiwan People’s Party. But not all voters are following the threat from China as closely as they were. “It’s pretty pointless as a Taiwanese person to speculate on such matters, as we’ve been in this situation for a long time,” a voter who gave only the surname Lu told RFA Mandarin in a recent round of street interviews.  Much of the early debate on the presidential campaign trail revolved around how candidates will handle the military threat from China.  U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping walk together after a meeting during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders’ week in Woodside, California, on Nov. 15, 2023. Xi’s statement that there wasn’t a timetable for an invasion of Taiwan appears to have made voters feel more secure. (Brendan Smialowski/AFP) But Chinese President Xi Jinping’s comments to U.S. President Biden at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco in November, in which he denied there was a timetable for an invasion of Taiwan, appear to have made voters feel more secure. “We all know deep down that there can be no war,” a voter who gave only the surname Weng said. “I’m not worried,” said a voter surnamed Chou. “The Taiwanese people must have confidence in themselves, and make their country strong.” “There is no problem,” she said. “I feel confident.” Protecting sovereignty Xi hasn’t relinquished China’s territorial claim on the island, which split from the mainland in 1949 amid civil war and has never been ruled by the Chinese Communist Party, reiterating in a New Year address on Dec. 31 that “China will surely be reunified.” But a 31-year-old Taipei office worker who gave only the surname Hsieh said people are used to military threats and ramped-up rhetoric from Beijing at election time. “All of the parties want to protect Taiwan’s sovereignty,” Hsieh said, adding that he doesn’t see a vote for any of the candidates as a vote for war. Neither can any of them promise that China would definitely not invade if they won the election, he said, adding that low-level, city-level exchanges are likely to alleviate current tensions with China. A J-15 Chinese fighter jet takes off from the Shandong aircraft carrier during exercises around Taiwan, April 9, 2023. One Taipei office worker says people are accustomed to military threats from Beijing at election time. (An Ni/Xinhua via AP) Hsieh said the main advantage for the opposition parties is that China won’t talk to the DPP, which has dismissed Beijing’s claim on Taiwan and criticized its crackdown on dissent in Hong Kong.  But he said the ruling party has a better track record when it comes to diplomacy, national defense and boosting Taiwan’s international status, not to mention the all-important relationship with Washington. ‘Stop interfering’ A 90-year-old voter who gave only the surname Kao said he is a staunch Kuomintang supporter, who nonetheless doesn’t want to see Chinese interference in Taiwan’s democracy. “I wish China would stop interfering in Taiwanese politics,” Kao said. “Taiwan is under a democratic system now, which is different from communism.” He said Taiwan has come a long way since the civil war between Mao Zedong and Chiang Kai-shek, and has spent the last few decades moving towards democracy, while China has been under Communist Party rule for more than 70 years. “Taiwan has gotten used to ruling itself democratically,” Kao said. A resident uses a magnifying glass as he reads a newspaper article calling Taiwan Vice President Lai Ching-te’s debate speech “Disaster words,” in Beijing, Wednesday, Jan. 3, 2023. A 90-year-old voter says she wishes “China would stop interfering in Taiwanese politics.” (Andy Wong/AP) A voter who gave only the surname Li said anti-communism has been deeply ingrained in Taiwanese society since the 1927-1949 civil war between the Kuomintang government of the 1911 Republic of China and communist insurgents. “They may fear our independence, but they didn’t build our country,” she said. “It’s better if they live their lives, we live ours, and we maintain peaceful cross-straits relations.” Housing, the economy Some told RFA Mandarin that they are more worried about the high price of housing than the threat of war. “The economy is still pretty important, and our leaders need to take active steps to deal with it,” Lu said. “The high cost of housing has led a lot of young people to lose confidence in the future,” he said, adding that he feels it’s time for a change after eight years of DPP rule. “​​If you are in power for too long, then issues of corruption are more likely,” Lu said. “This is a problem faced by all ruling parties in the world, not just in Taiwan.” Chou disagreed, saying the current leadership has done a good job, and that “Taiwan is very happy now,” and that she’s counting her blessings. Others said they were keen on Ko, because he appeared more down-to-earth, and to have concerns that were closer to their daily lives. “The stuff about China is kind of out of our reach, and I don’t pay much attention to it,” a voter surnamed Qu told RFA Mandarin. A Lai supporter surnamed Yang said the issue was much simpler for him. “We must elect people who are able to protect Taiwan,” he…

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‘Kids start to ask themselves who they are and where they come from’

As families leave Hong Kong in droves in a bid to remove their kids from an education system that is increasingly steeped in Chinese Communist Party propaganda, they are building new lives in democratic societies like Taiwan and the United Kingdom. Many middle-class parents, asked why they chose to leave their home amid an ongoing crackdown on public dissent in Hong Kong, say it’s for the kids. Yet the challenges for children uprooted from friends, school, family and the city they once called home are far from insignificant. Three years ago, the Cheungs emigrated to Taiwan with their family of five, including Yuet, 13, Guji, 10 and Yiu, 8. According to a YouTube video made by Yuet at the time, they called out excitedly “We’re going through the gate now!” before giving their relatives a quick hug, and embarking on their new life more than 700 kilometers (400 miles) away. Around the same time, the Ho family were taking off for the United Kingdom, with 10-year-old Marcus and 9-year-old Max. “[My dad] just said we were going to the U.K.,” Marcus said in a recent interview with Radio Free Asia. “Actually, I don’t remember the details because we were very young at the time.” “I never thought much about leaving behind all my classmates and friends.” The Cheung children said they had some idea of why they were leaving, other than their parents wanting them to get a better education, and that there wasn’t much room for resistance to the idea. Language problems Coming from Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong, they also found it hard to communicate when they first got to Taiwan, where Mandarin Chinese is the medium of instruction in schools, and where Taiwanese – mutually unintelligible with Cantonese – is also widely spoken. “I didn’t understand Mandarin at all, or any other languages,” Guji said. “It was hard for me to communicate.” All three children were thrown into a system that taught them in a spoken language they didn’t know well, and required them to understand phonetic notation systems they had never been taught, leading them to lose marks in Chinese tests that should otherwise have been a cinch. “They all know this phonetic system because they learned it in kindergarten,” Yuet complained. “But we were in fifth and sixth grade and we didn’t know it, yet 20 marks out of every 100 were for phonetic spellings, so I got 70.” “There’s a bit less homework compared with Hong Kong, and the teachers are kinder and a bit less scary when they tell you off,” Guji said. “They’re not as strict.” The Ho family emigrated to the United Kingdom with 10-year-old Marcus and 9-year-old Max. (Shi Shi) The Cheungs also get to spend more time with their parents instead of being left with a domestic helper, as they were in Hong Kong. In the U.K., Marcus and Max have also had to work hard to overcome the language barrier. Marcus found leaving Hong Kong, where he was on the soccer, badminton and swimming teams and class president, quite a wrench. But there have been compensations, too. British schools have far less of a hothouse atmosphere than the education system in Hong Kong, and don’t expect kids to study all hours of the day and night just to keep up with requirements. That leaves more time and energy for doing the things they love, including plenty of energetic outdoor play. “The pace in school seemed very leisurely,” their father Simon told RFA Cantonese. “But after I looked at what he was doing, it turned out he wasn’t just playing around — he had written two pages.” “After they caught up in English, communication became easier, and they both like to play football, so it became a lot easier for them to communicate with their friends,” he said. “I think they’re fairly happy,” he said. “They’re not particularly unhappy.” Less pressure Asked if this was an accurate assessment, Marcus said he prefers life in the U.K., because there’s less pressure. Early years education expert Bonnie, who has also emigrated to Taiwan with her children, said children are adaptable and generally manage to settle, even after such a move. But they thrive in an atmosphere where they can talk about their feelings, and have a sense that the family is working together to overcome problems. “First, remember that you’re in this together, and second, give them time and give them space,” she advised. “I don’t mind letting my kids see my weakness, because that’s a very real feeling.” But ultimately, the parents are the ones responsible for emigration, not the kids, she said. “Children have to let go of the people and things they love most because of a decision made by their parents,” she said.  Marcus, Max and the Cheung children aren’t alone. BNO visas So far 40,000 Hong Kong minors have been approved for the British National Overseas visa program, which offers a pathway to permanent residency and citizenship. Childhood education expert Bonnie, who has emigrated to Taiwan with her children, says children are adaptable and generally manage to settle, even after such a move. (Chunyin) Meanwhile, schools in Taiwan reported 129 new students from Hong Kong in the 2020 academic year, and 174 in the 2021 academic year, compared with less than 100 between 2015 and 2019. National Taiwan University sociologist Lu Ching-hu said parents who emigrate from Hong Kong were far more likely to oppose the changes in that city than those who stay behind. “There is a positive relationship between resistance and immigration,” said Lu, who has studied emigrating Hong Kong families. “If you are a parent, the relationship is even stronger.”  U.K.-based Simon said that was a key factor in the Ho family’s decision to leave. “One of the reasons is that the teaching materials have been changed,” he said. This makes it harder for parents to help kids revise for tests in what has become an unfamiliar and hostile education system. “There are some…

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Taiwan accuses China of gray zone tactics by flying balloons

After Taiwan spotted Chinese balloons flying over its main island, the Ministry of National Defense (MND) in Taipei accused Beijing of conducting ‘cognitive warfare’ against Taiwanese people just days before the general election.  Two more Chinese balloons were detected crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait, which serves as the de facto boundary between Taiwan and China, on Friday. One of them flew over the Taiwan island itself, the ministry said Saturday in a strongly-worded statement. On Jan. 13, the Taiwanese go to polls in presidential and parliamentary elections seen as vital for cross-strait relations. The MND only began disclosing China’s balloon incursions in December 2023 and has so far reported the sighting of 19 balloons, including six that entered the island’s airspace. An airspace is a portion of the atmosphere above a country’s territory, to which it holds exclusive sovereignty. Experts say the balloons are likely meteorological as most of them fly at a relatively low altitude. The MND said, according to their analyses, “the main purpose of the recently detected airborne balloons is to conduct gray zone activities, attempting to use cognitive warfare to affect the morale of Taiwanese people.” Cognitive warfare, often known as psychological warfare, refers to activities designed to control the mental state and behavior of other people. The drifting paths of the balloons “posed a serious threat to the safety of many international flights,” the ministry said in a statement sent to reporters. It added that the Taiwanese military is keeping a close watch and would notify civil aviation authorities about any new developments, while “condemning the Chinese Communist Party for its disregard of aviation safety and for the safety of passengers on both sides of the Taiwan Strait and internationally.” ‘Hyping China’s threat’? Wendell Minnick, a Taipei-based veteran Chinese military watcher, said the balloons could be an air traffic problem for airliners at 30,000 ft (9.1km). “Sucking one of these into the engine would result in a crash,” Minnick told Radio Free Asia.  “But these weather balloons are not unusual; they come from two different weather balloon stations in China,” said Minnick. “Now that Taiwan’s MND has begun mentioning them, they have to keep doing so.” Chinese media outlets, meanwhile, said they were “harmless weather balloons” and accused the Taiwanese government of “hyping the mainland threat.” “It’s evident that weather balloons pose no threat to anyone, however, media outlets in the U.S. and Taiwan island use them to perpetuate the ‘mainland threat theory’,” said the state-run Global Times in an editorial on Thursday.  The Global Times mentioned the incident that happened in early 2023 when U.S. authorities accused China of flying a spy balloon over the continental U.S. In the so-called “2023 Chinese balloon incident,” the Pentagon sent a stealth F-22 Raptor fighter jet to shoot down what it said was a Chinese high-altitude surveillance platform in the Atlantic Ocean on Feb. 4. China said it was a weather balloon that was blown off course, but the incident led to further tensions in the already problematic China-U.S. relations. Edited by Taejun Kang.

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Retracted study was based on unethically collected Uyghur DNA samples, experts contend

The recent retraction of an academic journal article that discussed the genetic information of Uyghurs and Kazakhs in China’s northwestern Xinjiang region has raised questions and concerns about ethical standards in scientific research, as people familiar with the study believe that genetic samples were obtained under duress. In June, Elsevier, a Dutch publisher, announced the retraction of a scientific article published in 2019 in its journal “Forensic Science International: Genetics.” The retraction was attributed to the failure to meet necessary ethical approvals in scientific research, The Guardian reported. The deleted study, entitled “Analysis of Uyghur and Kazakh populations using the Precision ID Ancestry Panel,” was authored by Chinese and Danish researchers in Ürümqi.  It involved the collection of blood and saliva samples from 203 Uyghurs and Kazakhs, which were then tested using genetic sequencing technology developed by the American biotech company Thermo Fisher Scientific. The article’s authors claimed that their findings could help police in using genetic sequencing techniques to identify suspects in cases. “A clear knowledge of the genetic variation is important for understanding the origin and demographic history of the ethnicity of the populations in Xinjiang… [which] may offer an investigative lead for the police,” the article said. In the redaction notice, the journal said that an investigation revealed that those who collected the samples did not obtain the necessary ethical approval. Forced collection Yves Moreau, a professor at the University of Leuven in Belgium, has raised the concern that the Chinese government forcibly collects and arbitrarily uses genetic information from Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities. He told Radio Free Asia’s Uyghur Service that he had been critical of the 2019 study for a considerable period of time before it was finally deleted. “The article that was retracted … That’s a case that has been open for a very, very long time,” said Moreau, who added that he is working toward getting journals to reevaluate numerous articles, many on the same subject.   Moreau had also taken issue with a similar study published in the June 2022 issue of “Forensic Science Research,” a journal acquired by the Oxford University Press in 2023. That article detailed a study sponsored by China’s Ministry of Justice that analyzed the genetic information of Uyghurs based on blood samples collected from them. The retracted 2019 article and the 2022 article was written by the same authors, Claus Børsting, Niels Morling, and Xalmurat Ismailjan (Halimureti Simayijiang) from the forensic genetics department at the University of Copenhagen. Qelbinur Sidiq, shown speaking at the “Uyghur Tribunal” in 2021, says she saw samples collected from blood, as well as collections of fingerprints and retina scans. She said she herself was made to give all three in 2016. (Tolga Akmen/AFP) Ismailjan is known to have ties to China’s public security agencies and is listed as being jointly affiliated with Xinjiang Police College, The Guardian report said.  Experts like Moreau contend that the blood samples utilized in both studies were obtained from people who had no choice but to participate.  Moreau was reluctant to take on the 2022 article, he said, because one of editors-in-chief of the journal was from the Institute of Forensic Science of the Chinese Ministry of Justice. “So I thought, well, if I’m going to write a letter asking for ethical re-evaluation of an article in that journal, I’m not going to get much of an answer,” he said.  But when the journal was acquired by Oxford University Press, he was able to raise the issue with that institution, he said. “Now I can write to Oxford University and tell them, … you know, you were actually publishing this journal for the Institute of Forensic Science of the [Chinese] Ministry of Justice,” said Moreau. In an email sent to Irene Treacy, vice chancellor of the University of Oxford, Moreau noted that “such consent should be given voluntarily, and he does not believe that the Uyghurs consented to [biometric data collection] voluntarily.” After Mr. Moreau raised the issue, the editorial departments of the University of Copenhagen and the editor departments of the aforementioned journals replied via email that they would investigate the matter, he explained. Coerced samples Witnesses have observed coerced genetic data collection both inside China’s secretive “reeducation camps” in Xinjiang and also outside of the camps.   Qelbinur Sidiq, who currently lives in the Netherlands, said she saw samples collected from blood, as well as collections of fingerprints and retina scans. She said she herself was made to give all three in 2016. “Blood samples and DNA sequencing are mandatory, whether you are inside the camp or outside. There is an order where authorities instruct you on when to go to which hospital for the collection of your blood sample and DNA,” she said. “There is no freedom or choice to refuse.” Sidiq said that the police inform residents through the chat platform WhatsApp as to when they must appear at a specific hospital for collection. “Participants are given one week, and the notice explicitly states that failing to participate will result in severe consequences,” she said. “As a result, there is no freedom or choice in the matter, and individuals are unable to inquire about their results. Asking for the result of the blood sample is not an option.” Duarte Nuno Vieira, the co-editor-in-chief of “Forensic Science Research,” denied the journal had received financial support from China’s Ministry of Justice, according to the Guardian report. Journals have a responsibility to evaluate the ethics of the studies that appear in articles they publish, Maya Wang, associate Asia director for New York-based Human Rights Watch, told RFA. “Given the brutality of the collection process, I believe it is important for such journals to check and review research articles on samples taken from Uyghurs and Tibetans by Chinese police agencies,” she said. “It is unlikely these journals not know the background of such articles.”  In 2021, Professor Yves Moreau initially uncovered similar articles published by Chinese researchers about Uyghurs in the American journal Molecular Genetics and Genome…

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No candy for old kids in North Korea

North Korea is toning down its annual candy giveaway to children this year ahead of leader Kim Jong Un’s Jan. 8 birthday, handing out less candy and snacks than in previous years – and to fewer children, residents in the country told Radio Free Asia. The quality of candy is also lower, they said. Meanwhile, adults were buying their annual New Year’s “present” from the state: wall calendars that came with a variety of illustrations, including rockets and images of plump children. The calendars, marking the important dates for “Juche 113” –  also known as 2024 – were once free, but now must be purchased. Gifts of sweets to children on or around the birthday of the country’s leader has been a tradition in North Korea dating back to the reign of national founder Kim Il Sung – Kim Jong Un’s grandfather – and continued during the rule of his father Kim Jong Il. But this year the government is limiting the gift to kids aged 6 or younger. The government began distributing this year’s candy gift on Dec. 31, a resident of the northeastern province of North Hamgyong told RFA Korean on condition of anonymity for security reasons. But children will likely be disappointed because they are getting less this year, and the quality has declined, he said. “The number of recipients who qualify for the gifts also decreased significantly,” he said. “Starting this year, elementary school students [and anyone older] are excluded from receiving confectionery gifts.” The gift package this year consists of hard candy, packaged snacks like chips or sweet breads, bean powder coated candy, and other select items, he said.  The government has not overtly said that the candies are for Kim Jong Un’s birthday, however. But residents assume that must be the reason, because they remember that under the rule of the previous leaders, children received candy ahead of their birthdays, the resident said. Self-reliance With the changing of the year from Juche 112 to Juche 113, adults are also “given” paper calendars from the state, which they must purchase. “Juche,” is North Korea’s founding philosophy of self-reliance, and the Juche era is said to have begun with the birth of Kim Il Sung in 1912.  RFA reported in 2022 that pandemic concerns had resulted in people having to pay for their own annual calendar gift, and those who could pay more received better quality calendars. That trend is continuing into this year, but the people have several versions of the official calendar they can buy, with themes centered around missiles, the cult of personality, the military, education, and tourism, another North Hamgyong resident told RFA on condition of anonymity for personal safety. The missile calendar is titled “The Status of the Juche Powerhouse,” he said, while the calendar about soldiers and marines is called, ”Let’s Destroy the U.S. Imperialist Invaders, the Bitter Enemies of the Korean People.” A North Korean wall calendar for the year ‘Juche 113’ or 2024. Residents were “gifted” calendars like these, this year, though they had to be purchased. (RFA) The tourism-themed calendar seemed tone deaf though, because it pictures a lifestyle that most North Koreans can not even dream of, he said. “How many people in North Korea can enjoy sightseeing and eating at restaurants on a boat like in the calendar?” he said. “Furthermore, there are students who cannot go to school because they are starving, and there are all these chubby students featured in the [education] calendar.” The calendars are printed on low-quality paper this year due to a paper shortage, and even then there are different versions of varying cost, a resident of North Pyongan province in the northwest told RFA on condition of anonymity to speak freely. “A multipage calendar costs 5,000 won (59 U.S. cents), and a single page calendar [displaying the entire year] costs 500 won (6 cents),” she said. “Well-off residents purchase the multipage calendars and there is a high demand for calendars featuring pictures of flowers and souvenirs.” She said that the militaristic calendars were less popular because they feature missiles, soldiers or scenes from the 1950-53 Korean War, which North Korea calls the “Great Fatherland Liberation War.”  The overly militaristic themes are a turnoff for some, but the resident said that people will always find reasons to complain.  “Last year’s calendar featured a picture of a young child holding a milk cup, but milk is a luxury for most people.” she said. Translated by Claire Shinyoung Oh Lee. Edited by Eugene Whong and Malcolm Foster.

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An uncensored history of modern China

A partly anonymous team of journalists and historians is setting up an archive of uncensored historical material to allow the Chinese people to “reclaim their history” from the ruling Communist Party’s official narrative, according to its founder. The China Unofficial Archive, founded by Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist and former China correspondent Ian Johnson, is “dedicated to making accessible the key documents, films, blogs, and publications of a movement of Chinese people seeking to reclaim their country’s history” since the Communists took over in 1949. It includes books, films and documentary records from key points in China’s recent history, including the Great Famine of the late 1950s to early 1960s under late supreme leader Mao Zedong, memoirs of the political turmoil of the 1966-76 Cultural Revolution and former Beijing Mayor Chen Xitong’s personal account of the 1989 Tiananmen massacre. “We believe that public domain books, magazines, and films should be widely available, and that there is an inherent value in making different voices heard,” the bilingual Archive’s About section reads. The non-profit archive was co-created and is co-maintained by Chinese journalist Jiang Xue and others “who prefer to remain anonymous,” it says. Johnson, whose recent book “Sparks: China’s Underground Historians and their Battle for the Future” portrays the same people his archive hopes to serve, told Radio Free Asia in a recent interview he hopes that more Chinese people will gain access to materials through the archive that are unavailable in China due to government censorship. “I noticed talking to a lot of people that … although there’s a lot more information possible to share in China, like people emailing PDFs and that sort of thing … it was sometimes difficult to find more information,” Johnson said. “Somebody might send you a book about a topic, but it would be difficult to find other books on the topic or other authors on the topic.” Providing access Currently, the archive has a backlog of around 175 films that are currently being digitized that have yet to appear on the site, which Johnson said is around “75% or 80%” focused on people still living under censorship, with the remainder aimed at non-Chinese overseas. Johnson had the idea to set up a “clearing house” for useful historical research material for those who lack access to big research libraries in major universities like Harvard. “My primary goal was to help people who are doing this kind of research to simply have access to existing materials, all the books and the documentary films, etc,” he said. Ian Johnson, a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist and former China correspondent, is the founder of the China Unofficial Archive. (Cai Yaozheng) Johnson was careful to note that he doesn’t endorse any of the material on his site as better or more truthful than any other material. “We have chosen these titles because we think that they’re useful and important,” he said. “But we aren’t saying necessarily that we agree with everything written by this author or that sort of thing, so in that sense, it is a bit like a library.” “We think there’s maybe an inherent value in a better flow of information,” he said, adding that the website aims to serve the needs of ordinary people and “citizen historians.” The site is unlikely to be accessible to internet users behind the Great Firewall of government censorship in China unless they employ special tools to get around government blocks and filters. “That’s to be expected,” Johnson said. “We’re looking to reach the people who are trying to research and, and write their country’s history.” “The raw numbers of people is small, but I think they can also be influential people in the long run,” he said. ‘Just the beginning’ The archive has plans to keep on adding new resources from what Johnson termed “a huge amount of potential material.” “What we’ve put on the site right now is just the beginning,” he said.  Not everything is eligible, either. Johnson and his team will steer clear of posting any book that is currently still on sale, although they plan to post an entry signposting readers to publishers and bookstores in the case of some publications. Books that are still readily available in libraries around the world are unlikely to get a spot, whether they’re on sale or not. But books that are out of print, or whose publishers have been shut down, or have been banned from sale will be made available, according to Johnson. “We don’t want to hurt [anyone’s] ability to earn a living,” he said. Even with that content ruled out, there is plenty of new material being published by what Johnson described as “an amazing explosion” of citizen historians in the past two decades in China. “Sometimes in Hong Kong, sometimes just as a PDF, sometimes they make a film and put it on YouTube or some other place like that,” he said. “I don’t think many people, certainly outside of China, realize how much has been done about that.” “It’s remarkable that it’s primarily written by Chinese people inside China under often difficult conditions and without the benefits of being a professor at a big university and a budget and graduate students to help you do all the dirty work, right?” “These are people often working on their own and under quite difficult circumstances,” Johnson said. “And so I thought it was an important trend that needed some highlighting and in this way by putting it all together.” “It shows the scope of this movement.” Edited by Luisetta Mudie and Malcolm Foster.

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Ethnic armies’ ‘Operation 1027’ put Myanmar junta on defensive in 2023

Myanmar’s ethnic armed organizations and other resistance groups made significant gains against the country’s military dictatorship in 2023. “Operation 1027,” launched by the Three Brotherhood Alliance in northern Shan state in October, was a surprising success. Along with the efforts of local People’s Defense Forces, or PDFs, and ethnic armed groups in Kayah, Kayin, Chin, and Kachin states, anti-junta forces put the ruling military junta on the defensive.  The junta lost hundreds of outposts as rebel forces captured towns and several key border crossings in November and December, suggesting the tide could be turning in the country’s civil war that erupted after the military overthrew a democratically elected government in a February 2021 coup d’etat “The military council suffered great losses in 2023, while the people’s revolution has stepped forward gradually,” said Kyaw Zaw, spokesman for the shadow National Unity Government, or NUG. “It is the victory of the people.” The number of junta troops surrendering to resistance forces increased after Operation 1027 began.    People’s Liberation Army forces from China fight Myanmar junta army troops near northwestern Myanmar’s Sagaing region, Nov. 23, 2023. (Reuters)     On Oct. 30, more than 40 members of Light Infantry Battalion 143 in Kunlong township, northern Shan state, surrendered to the Three Brotherhood Alliance, which includes the Arakan Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army. A day later, the military junta’s 15 local militia members laid down their weapons and turned over their arms and ammunition. Reports of junta units submitting to resistance forces have continued over the last two months. “Many have contacted us to surrender,” said Maung Maung Swe, spokesman for the NUG’s Ministry of Defense. “If we can have more collaborative fights, the military council will soon topple.” Junta troops have lost motivation and confidence in their fighting ability because of Operation 1027, political observer Than Soe Naing said.  “They have realized they should not sacrifice their lives for corrupt senior military officials,” he said. “They will surrender if they are defeated, and will flee from the military if they have an opportunity. It’s become a common idea among soldiers.” We were unable to reach junta spokesman Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun for comment about junta forces surrendering.  Local administrations Ethnic armies and officials from the NUG, which is mostly made up of former civilian government leaders, have been setting up interim administrative bodies in areas they control.  In other areas of the country, resistance leaders have started to think about what Myanmar would look like if the junta was defeated.  In Sagaing region, a hotbed of resistance to military rule that saw a resurgence of anti-junta protests in 2023, more than 170 resistance forces held a forum on May 30-31 to discuss the armed revolt and local administration.   Ta’ang National Liberation Army troops prepare to launch a drone during their attack on a Myanmar junta military camp in Namhsan township in Myanmar’s northern Shan state, Dec. 12, 2023. (AFP)      “The forum was held to continue the revolution collaboratively as it has been for more than two years,” Sagaing Forum spokesman Chaw Su San said. “It also aims to forge more cooperation among anti-military dictatorship forces in Sagaing region.” On Nov. 17, democratically elected representatives from Sagaing, Tanintharyi and Magway regions convened regional parliaments and approved a preparatory bill for an interim constitution, supported by the dissolved National League for Democracy. But revolutionary groups objected to the measure, saying they wanted to ensure equal rights for negotiation, participation and collective leadership by all resistance groups, said Soe Win Swe, another Sagaing Forum spokesman. “We concluded that the recent approval was intended just for the interest of a single organization, so we objected to it,” he said. “The Sagaing Forum firmly stands on collective leadership.” Draft constitutions In western Myanmar, armed ethnic Chin groups have also gone on the offensive since October. “Our resistance forces could capture only four or five military outposts in the past two and half years,” said Salai Timmy, the secretary of the Chinland Joint Defense Committee.  “However, after launching Operation 1027, we controlled about nine outposts,” he said. “Meanwhile, the military troops abandoned about 12 camps.” The Chin National Front, an ethnic Chin political organization whose armed wing has battled junta forces, along with local administration organizations, established Chinland — Chin state’s new name – following the approval of a new constitution on Dec. 6. The Chinland Council, the new governing body, will form a legislature, an administration and a judiciary branch within 60 days, said Salai Htet Ni, first joint secretary of the council.    Members of the Myanmar Army’s Light Infantry Battalion 129 surrender to the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army in northern Shan state, Nov. 12, 2023. (Three Brotherhood Alliance)      In eastern Myanmar, ethnic Karenni forces launched Operation 11.11 — their own version of Operation 1027 — in November, seizing at least nine military outposts in Kayah state, said Khun Bedu, chairman of the Karenni Nationalities Defense Force. “The junta soldiers abandoned their camps,” he said. “We are moving on to capture more outposts.” Resistance forces in Kayah state set up an Interim Executive Council, or IEC, on June 12, putting in place local administrations at village, village-tract and township levels, IEC General Secretary Khu Plue Reh said. NUG is working with the IEC without intervening in administrative procedures, he said. “We also work together to provide public services especially in education, health care and humanitarian assistance,” he said. With its own public support, the establishment of the IEC could be an initial step toward the establishment of a federal union in Myanmar — a long-running goal of ethnic political organizations and their respective ethnic armies. In adjacent Kayin state, the Karen National Union, or KNU, battled junta troops, while providing training to local PDFs.  The KNU’s Karen National Liberation Army and PDF forces took control of Mon township in early December — the first town captured in Bago region. Resistance forces…

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Burmese city hit by huge job losses amid Chinese factory closures in Dec.

About 3,000 workers were left unemployed and without full compensation following the ongoing shutdowns of Chinese garment factories in December in Pathein, Ayeyarwady region of Myanmar, according to workers on Wednesday.  Since the first week of December, the three factories – Haubo Times, He Shan, and North Shore – have been shut down, and it’s planned that some of the remaining employees will be laid off by the end of the month, a women from Haubo Times who was laid off told RFA Burmese.  “Hubo Times was closed this December. They [the factory officials] pay workers for four to six days of their work (in the first week of the month). After that, there are only a few workers left until Dec. 20,” said the woman, adding that some sections of the factory are still operational, but workers there were also asked to work only until the end of December.  Labor activists close to the matter said the closure was due to the lack of power supply, difficulties in purchasing fuel for generators to run the factory, a lack of demand and raw materials shortage. The activists noted that while the affected workers did receive compensation equivalent to three months’ salary from the factories, they have not been given overtime pay and social security benefits by their employers that are provided by the junta council’s Ministry of Labor. An activist in Pathein township, preferring anonymity due to fear of repercussions, highlighted that the compensation process was handled unjustly, disproportionately impacting workers with longer tenures. “Workers with longer tenures should receive more compensation based on the labor law. They expect that too. It’s demoralizing and disappointing for them when the company does not abide by this law,” the activist told RFA Burmese.  The three garment factories as well as Aung Thein Win, the junta council spokesman for Ayeyarwady region and a regional minister for social affairs, have not responded to RFA’s inquiries as of this writing. There were about 15 garment factories in Pathein before the military coup, but now more than half of them have been closed, a local resident told RFA Burmese.  Pathein is not alone. The garment industry in the Yangon Industrial Zone also suffered rising raw material prices, difficulty securing the materials and extreme power outages among other issues. As of August, there were 817 factories in the whole country that are members of Myanmar Garment Manufacturers Association, or MGMA, according to the association. Among them 546 were up and running, while 271 were reportedly closed down, it said. Of these 546 operational, 311 were China-owned factories. Translated by RFA Burmese. Edited by Taejun Kang and Elaine Chan.

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Southeast Asia’s ‘narco-state’ and ‘scam-states’ undercut authoritarian rule boasts

The year 2023 has been one of disorder in Southeast Asia.  War is still raging in Myanmar, where perhaps thousands of civilians were killed this year, on top of hundreds more soldiers and anti-junta fighters. ASEAN, the regional bloc, has failed yet again to either bring the warring parties to the negotiation table or, as a result, take a sterner position on the military government that took power through a coup in early 2021. A consequence of the escalation of political violence in Myanmar has been the proliferation of crime. According to the Southeast Asia Opium Survey 2023, published by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), the country reclaimed the spot as the world’s biggest opium producer, with the area of land used to grow the illicit crop increasing by 18 percent to 47,100 hectares in 2023, compared to the previous year.  Poppy fields stretch across pastures in mountainous Shan State, Myanmar in 2019. Myanmar reclaimed the spot as the world’s biggest opium producer according to the UNODC Opium Survey for 2023. (Ye Aung Thu/AFP) The report noted that “although the area under cultivation has not returned to historic peaks of nearly 58,000 ha (143,300 acres) cultivated in 2013, after three consecutive years of increases, poppy cultivation in Myanmar is expanding and becoming more productive.”  At the same time, production of methamphetamine has also increased.  One result has been to flood the rest of Southeast Asia with cheap drugs. On Dec. 13, the Thai police seized 50 million methamphetamine tablets near the Myanmar border, the country’s largest-ever drug bust and the second largest in Asia.  Alastair McCready, reporting for Al Jazeera in November, noted that yaba pills—combination of methamphetamine and caffeine—are selling for US$0.24 cents each in Laos.  The flood of drugs has led to an explosion of other criminal activity. Radio Free Asia has reported on the growing anger of ordinary Laotians about the authorities inability to investigate even petty crimes, which has been compounded by the ongoing economic crisis in the communist state, another indication of the disorder now infecting the region.  Enter ‘scam states’ Singapore, after staying capital punishments for years, felt it necessary to begin state-enforced executions again, killing the first woman defendant in two decades this year for drug-related offenses.  If Myanmar has the distinction of becoming Southeast Asia’s “narco-state” once again, some of its mainland neighbors now have the reputation of being what could be called “scam-states.” The blockbuster Chinese hit of the year No More Bets—a film about unwitting Chinese youths being lured into working for scammers somewhere in Southeast Asia, whereupon tragedy unfolds—was banned by several Southeast Asian governments, including Cambodia’s, which presumably thought its “ironclad” friend was spreading malicious propaganda.  Bags containing about 2 million methamphetamine tablets seized in a northern Thai border town near Myanmar are displayed during a news conference in Chiang Rai province, Thailand, Dec. 17, 2023. (Office Of the Narcotics Control Board via AP) Indeed, if in China No More Bets was a Tarantino-esque public health warning, in Southeast Asia it was an alarming indictment of all that’s wrong in their nations, a held-aloft mirror they couldn’t ignore, hard as they tried. The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights reported in August that at least 120,000 people in Myanmar and 100,000 in Cambodia “may be held in situations where they are forced to carry out online scams.” According to a UNODC report, there could be “at least 100,000 victims of trafficking for forced criminality” in Cambodia alone. “If accurate,” the report added, “these estimates of trafficking for forced criminality in Southeast Asia would suggest that this is one of the largest coordinated trafficking in persons operations in history.”  Note that those numbers are only of people forced to work in Southeast Asia’s scam compounds, which stretch from mainland Southeast Asia to Malaysia and the Philippines. The number of workers who choose, however you understand that word, to work in this industry is no doubt many times higher. Half of national GDP The UNODC was more hesitant in its language than it could have been. It offered a “conservative estimate” that the scam industry of one Mekong nation, which it did not name, “may be generating between $7.5 and $12.5 billion” in revenue annually, around half that country’s official GDP in 2021.  Some think it was a reference to Cambodia, whose GDP was US$27 billion that year. My guess is that the UNODC was being vague because it knows this estimate could also apply to Laos and Myanmar.  Five telecom and internet fraud suspects who were handed over to the Chinese police pose for a photo at Yangon International Airport in Yangon, Aug. 2023. (Chinese embassy in Myanmar/Xinhua via AP) Moreover, it’s possible that online scamming, with its associated human trafficking and money laundering, might now be the most profitable industry in all three states, and this increasingly un-shadowy sector may be worth as much as the entire GDP of all three states.  To quote the UNODC report: “the scam industry is earning criminal groups the equivalent of billions of U.S. dollars, with profits rivaling the GDP of some countries in the region.”  There have been some busts in Cambodia and the Philippines. One of the sparks for the “Operation 1027” offensive that unfolded in October across northern Myanmar, touted as the biggest rout of the junta’s forces since the February 2021 coup, was the apparent inability of the military junta to tackle Chinese-run scam compounds in Shan State. Because of the junta’s inactivity, a number of armed ethnic groups stepped in to tackle the scam compounds, which was well received in Beijing.  However, the task of tackling these groups is beyond the capabilities of the police and militaries of Southeast Asian states. In authoritarian mainland Southeast Asia, law enforcement is a patronized, pay-for-promotion extension of ruling parties, which makes them not only ineffective but also systematically corrupt.  Political protection Naturally, there is a good deal of political protection of these…

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US defense bill spends big against China’s maritime claims

U.S. President Joe Biden on Friday signed into law an $886 billion defense bill that includes US$16 billion to deter China’s expansive maritime claims and approves exemptions for Australia and the United Kingdom to buy American defense technology without licenses. The 2024 National Defense Authorization Act was passed by the Senate on Dec. 18 in a 87-13 vote and by the House on Dec. 19 in a 310-118 vote, after a compromise removed supplemental funding for Ukraine along with contentious abortion and transgender provisions. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, a Democrat from New York, last week called the compromise “precisely the kind of bipartisan cooperation the American people want from Congress.” Biden said on Friday that parts of the compromise “raise concerns” but that he was “pleased to support the critical objectives” of the bill. The legislation “provides the critical authorities we need to build the military required to deter future conflicts, while supporting service members and their spouses and families,” Biden said. Maritime deterrence  The bill includes $14.7 billion for the Pacific Deterrence Initiative, well above the $9.1 billion requested by the Pentagon. The project, defense officials say, will help bolster U.S. defenses in Hawaii and the Pacific territory of Guam to increase “deterrence” efforts against China.  A fighter plane takes off from the Chinese aircraft carrier Shandong in the Pacific Ocean, south of Okinawa, April 9, 2023. The Pentagon’s Pacific Deterrence Initiative will increase “deterrence” efforts against China. (Japan’s Ministry of Defense/AFP) Bryan Clark, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and expert in naval operations, said the “big increase” in funds would help by “improving the resilience and capability of U.S. and allied forces in the Indo-Pacific.” “I expect the increased PDI spending authorized in the NDAA will focus on defense of Guam, improved networking and data integration for U.S. forces in the Indo-Pacific, and accelerated efforts to posture U.S. ground troops in the region,” Clark told Radio Free Asia. A further $1.3 billion is earmarked specifically for the Indo-Pacific Campaigning Initiative, which a Senate Armed Services Committee statement said would fund “increased frequency and scale of exercises, freedom of navigation operations, and partner engagements” as China ramps up its claims of sovereignty. The 2024 bill also authorizes the biggest pay boost to military personnel in two decades, with a 5.2 percent overall bump, and increases the basic allowance for troops and housing subsidies. AUKUS It’s not only U.S. military bases and personnel in the Indo-Pacific that are receiving a large funding boost next year, though. The 2024 bill also approves the sale of nuclear-powered submarines to Australia and exemptions for Australian and British firms from the need to seek licenses to buy U.S. defense technology.  The two provisions – known as “Pillar 1” and “Pillar 2” of the AUKUS security pact between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States – have proved controversial, with some Republicans in Congress questioning Pillar 1 and some Democrats opposing Pillar 2. Republicans expressed concerns about the ability of shipyards to supply Australia with submarines by the 2030s amid massive building backlogs that have left the U.S. Navy waiting on its own orders.  The Virginia-class attack submarine New Mexico undergoes sea trials in the Atlantic Ocean, Nov. 26, 2009. (U.S. Navy via AFP) Democrats, meanwhile, said they were worried that exempting Australian businesses from the need to seek licenses could open up an avenue for Chinese espionage to procure sensitive U.S. technology. But in the end the provisions passed with bipartisan support – even if the important licensing exemptions remain conditional on Australia and the United Kingdom putting in place “comparable” export restrictions. Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, a Democrat from Illinois and the ranking member of his party on the House Select Committee on China, said that the approval of both pillars of AUKUS would be a boon to U.S. efforts to counter the Chinese Communist Party’s maritime claims. “By authorizing the sale of up to three Virginia-class submarines to Australia, and simplifying the process for sharing advanced technologies between our countries, we are taking an important step in strengthening key U.S. alliances and working to maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific region in the face of CCP aggression,” he said. Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles said that the passage of AUKUS meant that Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States are “on the precipice of historic reform that will transform our ability to effectively deter, innovate, and operate together.” Australia’s ambassador to Washington, Kevin Rudd, said earlier this year he foresees a “seamless” defense industry across the AUKUS member states in coming decades if the security pact succeeds. Other measures The bill also establishes a new program to train and advise Taiwan’s military, and funds the Biden administration’s new “Indo-Pacific Maritime Domain Awareness Initiative,” which also is aimed at deterring China’s vast claims of maritime sovereignty. U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Ely Ratner said earlier this month would equip American allies across Asia and the Pacific “with high-grade commercial satellite imagery that allows them to have much more visibility into their littorals.” Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Ely Ratner, seen at Senate hearing earlier this year, says the U.S. will give allies across Asia and the Pacific “high-grade commercial satellite imagery.” (Amanda Andrade-Rhoades/Reuters) Rep. Mike Gallagher, a Republican from Wisconsin and the chairman of the House Select Committee on China, said the bill was suitably focussed on the biggest threats currently facing the U.S. military. “We are in the window of maximum danger when it comes to a conflict with China over Taiwan,” Gallagher said after the House passed the bill. “Ensuring our military has the resources to deter, and if necessary, win such a conflict must be our primary focus in Congress.”

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