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Category: Americas
Foreign ministers wield new brooms in Cambodia and Thailand
Shortly after being appointed Thailand’s new foreign minister in early September, Parnpree Bahiddha-Nukara made a telling remark: “We want the Thai people to feel that the foreign ministry is contributing to their lives.” Sok Chenda Sophea, Cambodia’s new foreign minister, appointed a few days before Parnpree, told his new ambassadors: “All of you should work to represent the nation and enhance the Kingdom’s prestige, especially in areas like diplomacy, economics, food, sports and the arts. These are the focus of the new government’s foreign policy.” The two new foreign ministers bear a striking resemblance. Neither are career diplomats. Parnpree, whose father and grandfather were prominent in the foreign ministry, instead rose through the ranks of the commerce ministry under the Shinawatra sibling’s governments and then became chairman of the state oil company PTT. Thailand’s Foreign Minister Parnpree Bahiddha-Nukara arrives at the government house in Bangkok, Thailand, Sept. 5, 2023, to take his oath of office. Credit: Sakchai Lalit/AP Sok Chenda cut his teeth in the tourism ministry in the 1990s. Parnpree served as chairman of the Thailand Board of Investment. Sok Chenda was head of the Council for the Development of Cambodia, the country’s investment board, from 1997 until this year. Parnpree was head of a negotiation team for the creation of a free trade zone with India. Sok Chenda headed the Cambodian Special Economic Zones Board. Parnpree studied public administration at the University of Southern California. Sok Chenda studied economics at the University of Aix en Provence. Moreover, both are unlike their predecessors. Don Pramudwinai, a career diplomat and foreign minister under the years of Prayut Chan-ocha’s military-run government, was often accused of putting geopolitics, chiefly relations with Beijing, ahead of more balanced, economics-focused policy, as well as for conducting “cowboy diplomacy” over the Myanmar crisis that badly dented ASEAN unity. Another charge against Don was that, because he was appointed by a junta that had just taken power in a coup, he “spent a large part of his time explaining when, how, and to what extent his country would return, or has returned, to democracy.” As Benjamin Zawacki added, “His tenure has been marked by a conservative and defensive posture rather than one of enterprise or ambition.” Similar accusations have been leveled at Cambodia’s former foreign minister. Prak Sokhonn, who was quick to lash out against the perceived Western interference in Cambodia’s domestic affairs, was more aligned with Beijing than some officials in the economic ministries liked, and, one hears, not entirely trusted by the former prime minister Hun Sen. Indeed, Hun Sen is believed to have ignored Prak and the foreign ministry by condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Economics at the center Parnpree and Sok Chenda are new brooms, appointed to refashion their ministries away from a defensive posture on their relations with China and a fixation with stoking geopolitical tensions, and towards a more sustainable, front-foot policy that puts economics at the center. As one Thai newspaper put it, Parnpree is “expected to impart a new momentum to the country’s foreign policy with a strong emphasis on exploring economic dimensions of bilateral and multilateral relationships.” A Cambodian analyst has argued, “To maintain economic development, Cambodia cannot become subject to US or Western economic sanctions. Maintaining economic development may be Cambodia’s main priority under the leadership of Prime Minister Hun Manet. This appears to be the case with the appointment of Sok Chenda Sophea as the minister of Foreign Affairs.” These ideas aren’t radical. Surakiart Sathirathai, Thailand’s foreign minister between 2001 and 2005, sought to create “CEO ambassadors”. Surin Pitsuwan, a predecessor, established a “Team Thailand” approach, with diplomats supposed to represent the nation as much as the foreign ministry. But the return to a more stable, stripped-down foreign policy makes sense as Thailand and Cambodia undergo political change. Hun Sen speaks at a press conference at the National Assembly after a vote to confirm his son, Hun Manet, as Cambodia’s prime minister in Phnom Penh, August 22, 2023. It is said that Hun Sen did not entirely trust his foreign minister, Prak Sokhonn. Credit: Cindy Liu/Reuters Thailand has its first civilian, democratically elected government again for more than a decade. Cambodia has just undergone a once-in-a-lifetime generational succession of its ruling elites, with almost the entire old guard resigning in August to make way for a younger generation, mostly the children of that old guard. Neither Parnpree nor Sok Chenda are big characters. Indeed, they’re rather bureaucratic. And they are on the senior end of the age spectrum. At 66, Parnpree is one of the oldest in the new Thai cabinet. Sok Chenda, aged 67, is the oldest of Cambodia’s important ministers. (He’s 20 years older than the PM.) They are also excellent counterparts to their prime ministers. Srettha Thavisin, the Thai premier, is a businessman at heart. Although Hun Manet rose through the ranks of the military, he studied economics and played a guiding role in the companies owned by his wife. Parnpree and Sok Chenda appear happy to defer much of the more razmataz foreign policy, such as showing up for international summits, to their prime ministers. Srettha, the self-styled “salesman”-in-chief, clearly likes traveling around the world and meeting foreign leaders, and posing for rather ingratiating and embarrassing selfies with them. Cambodia’s ruling party obviously wants Hun Manet to be front-and-center of Cambodia’s engagement abroad, a role similar to the one played by his father. As such, having nose-to-the-grindstone foreign ministers makes sense alongside globetrotting premiers. Experienced foreign policy thinkers In part, too, the two new foreign ministers are also designed to appease the private sectors, especially as Cambodia and Thailand have untested and unsteady governments; Thailand in the form of an odd coalition and Cambodia with its dynastic succession of Hun Manet and almost the entire cabinet. It’s not quite the Biden administration’s evocation of a “Foreign Policy for the Middle Class” but it’s not far off. How the new foreign ministers translate their briefs into action remains to be seen. In…
Activists call for probe into China’s ‘consular volunteers’ network
The Chinese Communist Party is running a global network of “consular volunteers” through its embassies and consulates who form part of its “United Front” influence and enforcement operations on foreign soil, according to a new report, prompting calls for democratic governments to investigate. While Chinese embassies and consulates have been using such informal networks for at least a decade, they were recently formalized through a State Council decree that took effect on Sept. 1, yet the networks remain largely undeclared to host countries, the Spain-based rights group Safeguard Defenders said in a report published this week. Consular volunteers are mostly drafted in to help with administrative tasks linked to consular protection, risk assessments, and even “warnings and advisories” to overseas citizens and organizations, the report said, citing multiple online recruitment advertisements and other official documents. This gives them full access to individuals’ personal information, and “may also dangerously enhance their function of control over overseas communities and dissenters,” the report warned. China is already known to rely on an illegal, overseas network of “police service centers” that are sometimes used as a base from which to monitor and harass dissidents in other countries. Since taking power in 2012, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has launched an accelerated expansion of political influence activities worldwide, much of which rely on overseas community and business groups under the aegis of the United Front Work Department. Under the radar While Beijing has shut down some of its overseas police “service centers” following protests from host countries, the “consular volunteer” network has managed to fly under the radar until now, further enabling China’s overseas influence and illegal transnational law enforcement operations, according to the report. According to the State Council decree, “The state encourages relevant organizations and individuals to provide voluntary services for consular protection and assistance.” The state also “encourages and supports insurance companies, emergency rescue agencies, law firms and other social forces” to take part in consular work, it says. A building [with glass front] suspected of being used as a secret police station in Chinatown for the purpose of repressing dissidents living in the United States on behalf of the Chinese government stands in New York City’s lower Manhattan on April 18, 2023. Credit: Spencer Platt/Getty Images The decree also requires Chinese nationals overseas to “abide by the laws of China,” regardless of location. Organizations and individuals that “make outstanding contributions to consular protection and assistance” are to be commended and rewarded, it says. And official reports on volunteer commendation ceremonies and training events show that they are – under the supervision of individuals with “direct and demonstrable ties to the CCP’s United Front,” the Safeguard Defenders report said. “The [consular volunteer] network runs through United Front-linked associations and individuals and shows the involvement of the Overseas Chinese Affairs Office,” it said, adding that the Office was labeled an “entity that engages in espionage” by the Federal Canadian Court in 2022. Global effort A March 2023 recruitment drive by the Chinese Embassy in the Czech Republic posted to an official website called for volunteers from among “overseas Chinese, international students, Chinese employees of Chinese-funded enterprises and other individuals in the Czech Republic, overseas Chinese groups, Chinese-funded enterprises and other organizations, institutions and groups.” Similar notices have been seen in Trinidad and Tobago, Botswana, Turkey, Malaysia, Johannesburg, Equatorial Guinea, Chile and Japan, the report said, adding that the Overseas Chinese Affairs Office has also been directly named as a participant at training events for consular volunteers in Rio de Janeiro and Florence, Italy. According to the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, “the United Front system acts as a liaison and amplifier for many other official and unofficial Chinese organizations engaged in shaping international public opinion of China, monitoring and reporting on the activities of the Chinese diaspora, and serving as access points for foreign technology transfer.” The Safeguard Defenders report called on democratic countries to review the practice of “consular volunteering” by Chinese diplomatic missions, and warned them not to take part in United Front-linked events. French current affairs commentator Wang Longmeng described consular volunteers as quasi-spies. “The so-called assistance in providing consular services actually means collecting financial support from overseas Chinese individuals,” Wang said. “This can help the Chinese Communist Party control overseas Chinese remotely, making them loyal to party and state, as well as helping China to steal Western technology and intelligence.” “These people are also collecting information on dissidents, and many dissidents’ family members back home are also being threatened,” he said. “This is a quasi-espionage organization and an integral part of the Chinese Communist Party’s transnational repression network.” Wang said European countries have been fairly slow to catch on to such practices, compared with the United States. “That encourages the Chinese Communist Party to extend its long arm even further,” he said. “Their intention was never to stop transnational repression and United Front work,” he said, calling for EU legislation to curb such activities “as soon as possible.” APEC summit Zhou Fengsuo, executive director of the U.S.-based Human Rights in China, said China’s consulate in San Francisco had engaged in the large-scale mobilization of patriotic protesters during President Xi Jinping visit last week to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders’ summit in the city.. “The Chinese Communist Party will take up every bit of space it can in democratic societies to extend its rule and engage in state persecution,” Zhou told Radio Free Asia. “Consulates wield a great deal of power overseas.” “Much like it did with overseas police stations, the international community needs to face up to this form of [Chinese] government control.” After Chinese international student Tian Ruichen took part in protests supporting the “White Paper” movement of November 2022 and the Hong Kong pro-democracy movement, he was unsettled to find he’d been doxxed – a common tactic employed by supporters of Beijing. He told Radio Free Asia that overseas dissident communities need far more protection from the long arm of the Chinese Communist Party than they are currently…
Karenni officials: 200 university workers are safe after evacuation
More than 200 civilians evacuated from a university during recent fighting in the Kayah state capital in eastern Myanmar are being provided health care at a safe location, Karenni officials told Radio Free Asia. The military junta has alleged that the civilians, which include teachers and the rector from Loikaw University, were being detained against their will. “Some of them seem to be in a good mood, but some others said they are missing their family members,” said Banyar, the director of the Karenni Human Rights Organization. “We have told them that we will proceed in accordance with rules and regulations.” Fighting began in Loikaw in eastern Myanmar on Nov. 11 when the Karenni Nationalities Defense Force, or KNDF, targeted junta bases and a prison in the city. Junta troops retaliated with airstrikes and shelling, killing 20 civilians, according to the Karenni Human Rights Organization. The KNDF announced on Nov. 15 that they had successfully occupied the university, where two battalions of military junta soldiers had been stationed. The soldiers had frequently raided and shelled nearby villages, according to KNDF Chairman Khun Bedu. Regime spokesperson Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun said the attack on Loikaw University was a “barbaric act” and alleged that Karenni troops had killed some teachers and taken other teachers hostage. Khun Bedu denied these accusations, saying the attack was carried out only because soldiers were stationed there. Karenni Nationalities Defense Force fighters stand at Loikaw University in Loikaw, Myanmar, in this still image taken from video released Nov. 16, 2023. Credit: Karenni Nationalities Defense Force/Handout via Reuters A Karenni National Progressive Party official told RFA that junta troops used some university staff members and students as human shields during the fighting. They were evacuated to a secure place and no one has been tortured or killed, he said. “We are working to allow them to go to their destinations safely,” he said. “We are not using them as human shields like the military did.” On Monday, the KNDP published a recorded video clip on its social media page with statements from the university’s rector and several teachers. Some of the university staff members were being questioned about possible junta associations, said Banyar, who goes by one name. Legal action may be taken against some of them, he said on Monday. He did not provide specific details. Artillery attacks and air strikes Karenni forces launched their offensive this month after their northern allies’ “Operation 1027,” during which rebel groups won control of three major cities in Shan state. The Karenni Humanitarian Aid Initiative on Tuesday said air strikes and artillery attacks killed 68 civilians between Nov. 11-19 in Loikaw and Shan’s Pekon township. Victims included 10 children and 18 women, the group said. The information was gathered from the Karenni Human Rights Organization and media reports, they said. A humanitarian volunteer for Karenni displaced persons told RFA that the actual casualty toll may be higher. “We cannot get some figures from the frontlines of battles,” the volunteer said. “As the military was being defeated in the battles, they carried out air strikes on civilian targets and shot people dead.” RFA attempted to contact Myint Kyi, junta spokesperson for Kayah state, but phone calls went unanswered. Myanmar military soldiers who surrendered to the Karenni Nationalities Defense Force ride in the back of a vehicle in Loikaw, Myanmar, in this still image taken from video released Nov. 15, 2023. Credit: Karenni Nationalities Defense Force/Handout via Reuters Neither the junta nor Kareni forces have stated total casualty tolls from the fighting that began on Nov. 11. Elsewhere in Myanmar, a People’s Defense Force in Chin state said they have occupied a military outpost at Kennedy Peak between Kalay and Tedim townships. About 30 junta soldiers had been stationed at the outpost since the February 2021 military coup. “We began to attack this outpost at 4 a.m., and totally controlled the camp at around 6 a.m.,” an official from PDF Zoland told RFA. “It was the highest mountain in northern Chin and strategically important. So we captured it.” RFA attempted to contact Kyaw Soe Win, the social affairs minister and junta spokesperson for Chin state government, for his response but was unable to reach him. Translated by Aung Naing. Edited by Matt Reed and Malcolm Foster.
China orders financial support for battered property sector
The Chinese government has urged banks and financial institutions to back a sputtering real estate sector where the biggest developers have buckled under the weight of tremendous debt and don’t have the capital to complete pre-sold homes to hundreds of thousands of homebuyers. The move underscores Beijing’s dilemmatic position of having to defuse local government debt risks while pumping capital into the real economy to prop up growth. The property sector is particularly precarious not only because it is a major growth driver, but the housing issue is closely tied to social stability. Authorities told financial institutions that they need to support “reasonable” fund-raising requirements for developers that are “operating normally,” according to a report from the official Xinhua news agency Friday. The report added that capital raised through credit, bonds and stock issuance has paid off in helping stabilize the real estate market, citing a meeting organized by the central bank, the People’s Bank of China, foreign exchange and stock regulators, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange and the China Securities Regulatory Commission. The meeting was also attended by officials from the two stock exchanges, policy banks and 18 national commercial banks, five asset management firms and four of the country’s biggest stockbrokers. There is no official tally of the extent of debt chalked up by property developers. China Evergrande is the world’s most indebted developer with more than US$300 billion in liabilities. It defaulted on its debt two years ago and has yet to come up with a repayment plan. At the end of October, a Hong Kong High Court judge gave the Hong Kong-listed company until Dec. 4 to come up with a plan when a winding-up hearing will be heard. Evergrande is not alone. Country Garden and Sunac are also in hot soup. The crisis is more pronounced in tier-two cities or below, where most of the 841 demonstrations against property developers since January 2022 to date have occurred, based on data from Freedom House’s China Dissent Monitor. Most of them were staged by homebuyers demanding delivery of their properties with a smaller proportion of construction workers seeking salary payments. Implications of property woes China’s property crisis is a growing concern and a drag on the broader economy – the financial wellbeing of local governments, where traditionally, land sales for real estate projects are a huge contributor to their revenues. These governments are already under pressure from the cracks of local government fund vehicles that are issued to fund infrastructure like roads and airports but have not generated enough returns to cover their obligations. And massive debts piling up are also fueling concerns of a systemic financial crisis. The Central Financial Commission, the financial watchdog led by Premier Li Qiang, on Monday emphasized in a meeting the need to improve financial services that will help economic development. “It is necessary to comprehensively strengthen financial supervision, the responsibility of managing risks, coordination among departments, heighten control of the risk sources as they are diffused, and boost relevant reforms to improve prevention, warning and management mechanisms,” according to a separate Xinhua report citing a commission meeting that Li chaired. A woman rides a scooter past a construction site of residential buildings by Chinese developer Country Garden, in Tianjin, China August 18, 2023. Credit: Reuters Government debts are expected to account for 83% of China’s gross domestic product in 2023, up from 77% last year, according to data from the International Monetary Fund. The IMF’s Mission Chief for China, Sonali Jain-Chandra pointed out that more measures are needed to secure a recovery of the property market, which should include ways to accelerate the exit of troubled developers and greater central government funding for housing completion, following a visit to China early this month. According to analysts at Nomura, an estimated 20 million units of unconstructed and delayed pre-sold homes across the country are the biggest hurdle to turning the property crisis around, and about $440 billion will be needed to complete their construction, CNBC reported. In October alone, official data showed that the scale of unsold floor area for residential real estate soared by 19.7%, compared with October 2022. Funds raised by developers dropped 13.8% to 10.73 trillion yuan (US$1.48 trillion) in the first 10 months of the year. Domestic loans into real estate dropped 11% while foreign investments plunged 40.3% in the 10 months. The rating agency S&P Global has forecast China’s property sales to fall as much as 15% this year, with the drop to taper off to 5% for 2024. The continued property slump would hinder the post-COVID recovery of the world’s second-largest economy where real estate and its related industries make up about 30% of GDP. Beijing has also been ramping up measures to prop up the economy. It announced last month a 1 trillion yuan government bond issuance, which allows local governments to frontload part of their 2024 bond quotas. Indications for 2024 Investors and businesses are also watching out for more indications on Beijing’s macroeconomic direction for 2024 at next month’s annual Central Economic Work Conference. “I think they will continue to send similar signals as what we’ve seen in the past couple of quarters. That is, a high priority to supporting private consumption, fighting financial risks including from housing, continued fiscal support and continued support for the private sector and further opening-up,” said Allan von Mehren, China economist for Danske Bank. “It will be interesting to see if we get any clues about their growth target for 2024.” Von Mehren pointed out that there is speculation of a 5% target but he sees this as a “quite ambitious target as the base effects will be much less favorable compared to this year.” Beijing has set a growth target of around 5% for this year, which state media has touted this month to be within reach. Last month’s data show China’s recovery to remain uneven. While industrial output and retail sales were on an uptrend, the consumer price index, a gauge of inflation,…
Taiwan: the ‘most sensitive’ issue, linchpin to US-China relations
The leaders of the world’s two biggest economies emerged from a high-profile summit with a conciliatory and consensual commitment to find a forward path of managing competition that benefits the United States and China, but one issue still remains as the linchpin: Taiwan. While pundits would not have expected the meeting between President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping this week to have moved the needle as far as Taiwan is concerned, the issue was tabled and discussed, with both sides posturing as they always have. Biden reiterated the U.S.’s agreement to a One China policy and its position that Taiwan maintains its sovereignty despite China’s claims to the contrary. Xi, according to Xinhua news agency, called for the U.S. to take concrete actions to show that it is not supporting “Taiwan’s independence,” stop arming Taiwan and back China’s reunification. “China will realize reunification, and this is unstoppable,” Xi said during the summit, which nonetheless resulted in both sides agreeing to a dialogue on artificial intelligence, set up a working group to combat precursors for fentanyl, as well as resume high-level military-to-military communications. Chinese President Xi Jinping speaks during a bilateral meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, in Woodside, California, U.S., November 15, 2023. Credit: Reuters The self-governed democratic island has been the flashpoint amid the increasingly tense bilateral relationship between China and the U.S. The two have disputed the Taiwan issue for years, especially since the previous administration of Donald Trump. Beijing has claimed numerous times that it could resort to using force to reclaim the island if necessary. The escalated diplomatic stand-off, coupled with China’s apparent increased inward-looking and restricting investment environment for foreign investors to be topped by Beijing’s tightened grip on Hong Kong have triggered an outflow of capital. “Taiwan was really an essential part of the summit,” pointed out Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis. “The well-crafted speech by Xi during the business summit referring to the fact that China will not engage in any cold war, or that China is looking for a military conflict is very important. I think China knows well that the Taiwan issue is top on the agendas of business executives. And that risk is now one of the reasons actually why some people aren’t investing either in Taiwan for that matter or the mainland. So I think that is a big statement.” “Peaceful coexistence” The evening after his summit with Biden, Xi addressed a room full of top U.S. business leaders in San Francisco, where he called “peaceful coexistence” a baseline for China and the U.S. to uphold as two major countries. Xi stressed that China never bets against the U.S. or interferes in its internal affairs. “Likewise the United States should not bet against China, or interfere in China’s internal affairs.” He added, “aggression and expansion are not in our genes.” To what extent Xi’s remarks will help de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait, and by virtue the broader South China Sea, will likely be watched closely by analysts, but more importantly by Taiwan’s neighbors Japan and South Korea which are key allies of the U.S. in the region. At the same time, it also raises the question of how reassuring it would be to investors to bring fresh capital back to China. The U.S., Japan and South Korea have expressed their objection to what they saw as threats from Beijing, as China conducted military exercises around Taiwan to assert its sovereignty over the island. The Chinese navy has also been engaging in aggressive maneuvers in the South China Sea in a standoff with the Philippines. A Taiwan Navy Knox-class frigate fires chaff during a navy exercise off Yilan County, Taiwan, Friday, April 13, 2018. Credit: AP The dispute between the two major powers over the island amplified when Beijing issued a strong criticism following the visit of the then-Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, to Taiwan in August 2022. Since the event, the Chinese side had suspended its military communication channels with the U.S., a critical channel considered a last resort to prevent an unintended military confrontation. According to Zhang Baohui, professor of government and international affairs at Hong Kong-based Lingnan University, although the resumption of military communication channels between the U.S. and China will have a limited effect on the Taiwan issue, it is still a stabilizer to the high-risk relations between the two. “The US achieved its goal of reopening military to military ties and secured Chinese cooperation, while China achieved the goal of stabilizing the strategic rivalry, preventing it from getting worse,” said Zhang. “I think the outcome is positive for both countries. Both gained the image that they can work together to enhance global welfare.” Financial implications On the financial and business front, investors are taking a wait-and-see approach to the impact of the summit. For one, the U.S. did not lift any export controls on high-end semiconductors, an issue that China raised in the summit, criticizing the Americans for attempting to deny Chinese people the right to development. “The meeting should prove to have little long-term impact on financial markets. Xi did receive a very positive reception from business leaders, but here he was preaching to the choir,” said Brock Silvers, chief investment officer of Kaiyuan Capital. “Little was said or agreed that would convince recalcitrant investors that China was now prepared to tackle systemic or deflationary pressures, make necessary reforms, or meaningfully address investability concerns. “For investors, very few minds were likely changed.” U.S. President Joe Biden and China’s President Xi Jinping walk in the gardens at the Filoli Estate in Woodside, Calif., Wednesday, Nov, 15, 2023, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. Credit:The New York Times via AP, Pool Garcia-Herrero is more optimistic. Overall, the Xi-Biden meeting could prompt the foreign business community to see that “maybe China’s not so uninvestable,” she said. “I’m expecting inflows into China because of this…
APEC 2023: Xi heads for US in closely-watched summit with Biden
Even as the world watches keenly as China’s President Xi Jinping meets his American counterpart Joe Biden on Wednesday, expectations of what could transpire in a climate of fraught bilateral relations marred by a tech war and regional tensions are modest. Xi is heading to San Francisco where he is due to meet Biden on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, the first time in a year since the two met in Bali, Indonesia. Some experts, while not anticipating a change in the trajectory of the U.S.-China relationship, are hopeful that the talks will deliver some results such as the formal resumption of military-to-military relations. Diplomatic and commercial dialogues between the two have resumed after the downing of the Chinese balloon earlier this year, pointed out Zhang Baohui, director of the Centre for Asian Pacific Studies at Lingnan University. “The two sides have even begun strategic dialogues on nuclear and maritime issues. However, the U.S. wants to reopen military to military dialogues to prevent inadvertent incidents. This meeting between the top leaders should remove the hurdle for military-to-military exchanges. “If so, this should be a significant development as the world is very concerned by the prospect of military conflicts between the two countries in sensitive areas like the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea,” Zhang said. To be sure, the White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters on Monday that both sides will discuss strengthening communications and managing competition responsibly so that the U.S.-China relationship “does not veer into conflict” during the summit. “The way we achieve that is through intense diplomacy,” said Sullivan. He added that there are areas where “interests overlap,” such as efforts to effectively manage competition that could be done by reestablishing military-to-military communications. Incremental outcomes If there were any outcomes to come from the Xi-Biden summit, Ian Chong, a political scientist from the National University of Singapore believes they would be “incremental, but nonetheless important” to maintain the momentum of expanding dialogue. “Such effects will not be seen immediately after the meeting. Rather, they may unfold as more areas come under discussion in the following months to inject more predictability into the U.S.-PRC relationship to avoid unintended escalation, even as competition continues,” Chong said, referring to China’s formal name, the People’s Republic of China. “Xi probably seeks to press the PRC’s case on Taiwan and the South China Sea, while probing the U.S. on trade and technology and seeking more predictably in the bilateral relationship,” he noted. “Biden will likely reiterate U.S. positions on Taiwan and the South China Sea, while seeking more stability in the bilateral relationship. They may try to gauge each other’s positions on the Israel-Hamas conflict, Russian aggression in Ukraine, climate, and AI.” U.S. President Joe Biden meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 leaders’ summit in Bali, Indonesia, November 14, 2022. (Source: Reuters) Another area of contention that is expected to be discussed is semiconductors in light of the recent chip export ban by Biden, alongside the push for generative AI in both the U.S. and China, observed James Downes, head of the Politics and Public Administration Programme at Hong Kong Metropolitan University. “The key achievable issues or goals will likely relate to the ongoing tech war between both countries,” said Downes. “The Biden-Xi Summit will be much more successful if both sides focus on economic issues, as opposed to long-term and divisive geopolitical issues.” According to Lingnan University’s Zhang, Xi will no doubt pressure the U.S. to relax technology denial measures against China, but he believes the U.S. is unlikely to yield on this issue. “Technological competition constitutes a central place in the overall U.S. competition strategy,” he explained. Zhang believes that Xi will try to persuade Biden to return the relationship to cooperation, away from strategic competition, seeking a U.S. commitment that it does not support Taiwan’s quest for independence. Biden, in contrast, will seek to stabilize the competition to prevent “conflict” by pursuing more measures to build “guardrails” for its competition with China, like the resumption of military-to-military dialogues. “The US will assure Beijing that it will follow the One China principle. Nonetheless, deepening security cooperation between Washington and Taipei will continue to bother Beijing and lead to contentious relations with the US.” Seeking specific outcomes Meanwhile, Sullivan said the U.S. is looking for specific outcomes in the overlapped areas of interests from the summit, which include efforts to combat the illicit fentanyl trade and discussion between the two leaders on critical global issues such as Russia’s war against Ukraine, and the evolving crisis in the Middle East. Given China’s stance on the Middle East conflict, there may be a potential that the leaders may agree-at-large, in expressing the importance of peace in the region. China’s deputy permanent representative to the United Nations, Geng Shuang, said in New York on Monday that establishing peace in the region was an important task for Beijing. However, it could be challenging for Biden and Xi to release a joint agreement on criticizing Hamas as Beijing has traditionally shown a less sympathetic stance on Israel, when compared to that of the U.S. This difference in diplomatic approaches may complicate the leaders in reaching a more detailed consensus on the Israel-Hamas war. In fact, according to Xinhua News Agency, Geng expressed “shock and concern” over statements made by Israeli officials regarding nuclear weapons usage in Gaza Strip, labeling the Israeli remarks as “irresponsible and troubling.” While Geng condemned the idea of using nuclear weapons, largely aligning with the international community and the Non Proliferation Treaty principles, the senior diplomat did not specifically address or criticize the actions of Hamas, which have led to civilian casualties. Edited by Mike Firn and Taejun Kang.
China dominates in overseas ports: report
China has built a global network of commercial ports overseas that helps Beijing wield economic power as well as expand naval activities, a new report said. The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) think tank released an interactive report Monday tracking China’s control of overseas ports, some of which could double up as naval bases. In 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping first announced a plan for the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road as part of his ambitious Belt and Road Initiative to boost global connectivity and China’s access to foreign markets as around 95 percent of China’s international trade is being conducted through sea lanes. Ten years on, Chinese entities have now acquired equity ownership or operational stakes in 101 port projects across the world, 92 of which are active. Beijing has signed 70 bilateral and regional shipping agreements with 66 countries and regions. “China operates or has ownership in at least one port in every continent except Antarctica,” CFR said. The network of sea ports that China owns and operates bears an increasingly strategic importance, not least because of its potential dual use. Among the 92 active projects, 13 have a major Chinese ownership. Ten of them have suitable infrastructure for future military use. Potential naval use Some projects with dual-use potential where China owns a majority share are in Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Peru and Brazil. However, “the growing scrutiny from the West could mean that building naval bases is not an effective way for the Communist Party of China (CPC) and the Chinese government to project power globally,” the CFR report said. “The real leverage of the CPC and the Chinese government over the West is not necessarily in building newer and bigger naval bases,” the authors said, adding that “China’s leverage is in its varied degrees of investment and ownership in the world’s busiest and most-connected ports, which underpin the global flow of goods.” A Chinese construction worker stands on land that was reclaimed from the Indian Ocean for the Colombo Port City project in Colombo, Sri Lanka, Jan. 2, 2018. Credit: AP Photo/Eranga Jayawardena China has already invested heavily in some of the most connected countries in the world such as South Korea and Singapore. “China’s heavy investment in the world’s most-connected ports highlights its strong influence over the supply chains of global trade,” CFR added. Besides the network of ports, China also owns the largest fleet in the world. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy currently has 370 ships and submarines, according to a recent report by the Pentagon. To compare, the U.S. Navy has 291 ships. The U.S. Defense Department also estimated that China’s fleet will grow to 395 ships by 2025 and 435 ships by 2030. Edited by Elaine Chan and Taejun Kang.
Australia and China: Besties again? It’s complicated
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese wrapped up a three-day trip to China Tuesday, calling for the “full resumption of free and unimpeded trade” in a meeting with counterpart Li Qiang. The previous day, he held wide-ranging talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, covering everything from Tasmanian Devils to New Zealand wine, not to mention improving relations with Australia’s largest two-way trading partner in goods and services. In the next step towards mending the previously fraught relations and stabilizing them, Albanese told reporters in Beijing on Tuesday that both sides have agreed on practical steps to advance dialogue in areas of common interests, including climate change, trade and people-to-people links. He also said he raised the plight of detained Australian writer Yang Hengjun – although he provided no details about his possible release – and human rights issues within China, in a move that highlighted the controversial nature of the trip in Australia. It was the first visit to China by an Australian prime minister since 2016, with the two sides visibly making an effort to reframe a relationship marred by disputes on trade, human rights and the COVID-19 pandemic during the tenure of the previous prime minister Scott Morrison. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese delivers his speech at the opening ceremony of 6th China International Import Expo and the Hongqiao International Economic Forum in Shanghai on Sunday, Nov. 5, 2023. Credit: Jin Liwang/Xinhua via AP “It is wise for Labor to ‘stabilize’ the relationship with China,” Han Yang, a former Chinese diplomat turned political commentator, told Radio Free Asia. Albanese has been the leader of the Labor Party since 2019. “Australia is a middle power. It’s not in Australia’s interest to pick a quarrel with China, a superpower and its largest trading partner. ‘Cooperate where we can and disagree where we must’ is the right mantra to approach the relationship,” Yang said. Chinese misjudgment? Yang pointed out that Canberra did not make major strategic concessions, nor was it simply acting on the orders of the U.S. as some pro-China activists have argued. “It’s worth noting that Australia didn’t concede on any national security strategic goals. AUKUS is pushing on,” he said, referring to the trilateral security partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States in the Indo-Pacific region. Australia’s ban on Huawei remains, as does its anti-foreign interference law. “What has changed is the tone, and China got the message. “That is why it welcomed Albo with a red carpet,” Yang said, referring to the Australian prime minister’s nickname. “If you look at the foreign ministry read out, it gives significantly more space to Xi’s speech compared to meetings with other second-tier power world leaders.” Another China watcher Gerry Groot, senior lecturer in Chinese Studies at the University of Adelaide, told RFA that whatever transpired from Albanese’s meetings with the Chinese leaders was driven more by Australia’s own policy than American interests. “It’s Chinese actions and demands in the South China Sea and South Pacific – Australia’s own backyard – which are so alarming to Australian politicians and defense planners,” Groot said. Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese visits the Temple of Heaven in Beijing, China, November 6, 2023. Credit: AAP Image/Lukas Coch via Reuters He said he believed that Chinese strategic analysts had miscalculated the effect of weaponizing economic relations with Australia to drive a wedge between the U.S. and Australia or force more concessions, as well as punish the previous Morrison government for its anti-China stance.. “The grudging concessions on some of these sanctions have come about because the cost to China’s reputation internationally was greater than anticipated and the impact on Australia in economic terms was less, while at the same time driving relations with America closer,” he said. Exiles push back Australia’s relationship with China is made more complex by the fact that it is home to probably tens of thousands of exiles from China who have fled due to human rights violations, ethnic or religious oppression, or personal safety. “I think Albo’s China visit is morally corrupt, economically miscalculated and contradictory to Australia‘s national security interests,” exiled Chinese artist Ba Diucao told RFA. “Morally it is unacceptable to keep doing business as normal with a regime like China amid ongoing genocide against millions of Uyghurs and [while it is] supporting Russia’s invasion in multiple ways. “Also, an Australian citizen Yang Hengjun is still in jail as a political hostage in China,” Ba Diucao added. The writer was detained in 2019 while visiting family and charged with espionage. Some Uyghurs and Tibetans living in Australia, such as Ramila Chanisheff, president of the Australian Uyghur Tangritagh Women’s Association, reject any deals with the “devil.” Chanisheff told RFA that she and Tibetan representatives had petitioned against Albanese’s visit to China in Canberra ahead of the trip. “I think it was when we learned that Albanese was taking 400 trade reps [representatives] to China that it hit us the hardest. One Tibetan colleague of mine said she found it triggering,” she said. “Of course, as Australians, we feel shame at what happened to indigenous Australian youth, forced education etc, but now we’re facilitating a massive state that is doing the same in East Turkestan and Tibet.” Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese meets with China’s President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, November 6, 2023. Credit: AAP Image/Lukas Coch via Reuters Groot added, “While PM Albanese is beaming in his photos with CCP General Secretary Xi, we can only hope it is because the Chinese side has decided that more concessions to Australia are needed and perhaps that Yang Hengjun will be released shortly, rather than the grandeur of the occasion.” “In the meantime,” he added. “Gordon Ng [an Australian citizen charged with subversion] languishes in a Hong Kong jail on trumped up retrospective charges also.” Edited by Mike Firn and Elaine Chan.
Uyghur artist wins prize at prestigious art exhibit in Italy
Lékim Ibragimov was well into his career as an artist when he visited the Kizil Thousand-Buddha Caves in Xinjiang in the 1990s. It was a seminal experience that would shape his already renowned work and earn him a special commendation at one of the most prestigious exhibitions for contemporary art, the Florence Biennale in Florence, Italy. The series of rock-cut grottoes, each containing murals of Buddha, sometimes surrounded by other figures, date from the 5th to 14th century and sit on cliffs near Kizil township in Aksu prefecture. The caves, reputed to contain the most beautiful murals in Central Asia, were an important medium for Buddhist art at a time when Buddhism prevailed in Xinjiang for more than a thousand years until it was replaced by Islam around the 13th century. Now they are a source of pride and symbol of desired freedom for Uyghurs who live in the region and abroad. Ibragimov, a Uyghur graphic artist and painter who lives in Uzbekistan, explored the regional capital Urumqi and the town of Turpan. But when he went to the caves, the ancient murals and their historical richness deeply moved him. “I was particularly inspired by the Kizil Thousand-Buddha Caves [near] Kucha,” he told Radio Free Asia. “These paintings can’t be found anywhere else in the Turkic world. They are the epitome of Uyghur paintings, encapsulating the history and art of the Uyghurs. I found myself captivated.” One of the five works of Uyghur artist Lékim Ibragimov displayed at the 2023 Florence Biennale contemporary art exhibition in Florence, Italy, October 2023 Credit: Courtesy of Lékim Ibragimov Now 78, Ibragimov said he has dedicated more than 40 years to studying the cave murals and incorporating their style into his work. “Over the years, I introduced these artworks to the world with support from prominent artists who encouraged me to continue,” he said. “Through art, I paved a way for the Uyghur people. I became an academic in Russia, a national-level artist in Uzbekistan, and received many awards. I am delighted to have made this artistic contribution for the Uyghur community.” Cave frescoes Lékim Ibrahim Hakimoghli, as the artist is known among Uyghurs, has incorporated the style and colors of the cave frescoes into his abstract, surreal artwork that combines drawing, painting and calligraphy. His paintings earned him widespread recognition in Russia, Germany and other European countries after the 1990s as well as numerous awards, including the special commendation in the painting category at this year’s Florence Biennale, an event that has been held every two years since 1997. The five pieces Ibragimov presented at the exhibition were among 1,500 works by over 600 artists from 85 countries at the Oct. 14-22 event. Three of his works were of Turkic figures, outlined and accented by muted colors against a light brown background in the style of the frescoes at the Kizil, also known as Bezeklik, Thousand-Buddha Caves. Another one depicting a neighing steed trying to break free of its tether resembles a Chinese ink-and-water painting, while his rendering of an ancestral angel is reminiscent of the style and motifs of Belarussian-French artist Marc Chagall. All the works were created between 2008 and 2020. Piero Celona, the vice president and founder of the Florence Biennale, who is knowledgeable about the cave paintings in Xinjiang, expressed admiration for Ibragimov’s work. “Germany and other European countries have preserved and respected Uyghur culture, and he noticed the similarities [to the cave murals] in my paintings,” Ibragimov told RFA. “He commended my work and emphasized the Uyghur people’s yearning for freedom, predicting a brighter future for them.” Chinese suppression The award comes as the Chinese government is repressing Uyghurs and other Turkic peoples living in Xinjiang and trying to Sinicize the vast northwestern region in part by destroying Uyghur culture. Beijing has denied committing severe human rights violations in the region, despite credible reports, witness accounts and growing condemnation by Uyghur advocacy groups and the international community. One of the five works of Uyghur artist Lékim Ibragimov displayed at the 2023 Florence Biennale contemporary art exhibition in Florence, Italy, October 2023. Credit: Courtesy of Lékim Ibragimov Marwayit Hapiz, a Uyghur painter who lives in Germany and is well-acquainted with Ibragimov’s works, said the inclusion of his paintings in the Florence Biannale was a significant achievement for Uyghur art. “Lékim Ibrahim’s selections for this exhibition were a rare distinction among Turkic ethnicities,” she told RFA. “He is the sole Turkic artist to have earned this recognition.” Hapiz, who first met Ibragimov in Urumqi in 1991, calls him one of the leading artists in the field of contemporary Uyghur fine art, whose works in the style of the cave murals highlight the traditional art of Uyghurs. “I wouldn’t hesitate to call him the foremost artist in Uyghur arts,” Hapiz said. “In Europe, whenever someone inquires about painters of symbolic Silk Road paintings, his name comes up.” “Lékim Ibrahim’s paintings emanate the spirit of Uyghur art from the era of the Uyghur Buddhas,” she said. “Our Uyghur artistic legacy essentially originates from these stone wall paintings.” Narratives Through extensive research, Ibragimov developed a deep understanding of the narratives and tales depicted in the cave wall paintings and incorporated them into his creative spirit, Hapiz said. “He innovatively adapted their expression and aesthetics, establishing a unique method of painting,” she said. Ibragimov has played a pivotal role in introducing Uyghur art to the world, alongside other renowned Uyghur painters Ghazi Ehmet and Abdukirim Nesirdin, she added. “He stands as a distinctive artist from the Silk Road and Asia primarily due to his ability to reflect the ancient paintings,” said Hapiz. Other artists familiar with Ibragimov’s work took to social media to offer their congratulations and praise. The special commendation certificate and medal presented to Uyghur artist Lékim Ibragimov at the 2023 Florence Biennale contemporary art exhibition in Florence, Italy, October 2023. Credit: courtesy of Lékim Ibragimov Gulnaz Tursun, a Uyghur artist from Central Asia, who like Ibragimov, serves as a mentor…
Myanmar junta shutters independent news outlet in Rakhine state
Myanmar junta troops raided and shuttered an independent news outlet in Rakhine state on Sunday, arresting one reporter and a guard, while the rest of the staff went into hiding, relatives of the employees said. Soldiers arrested Htet Aung, the Sittwe-based reporter for Development Media Group, or DMG, and night watchman Soe Win Aung, and no one has had any contact with them yet, they said. DMG was established in 2012 along the Thailand-Myanmar border, but later moved its operations to Rakhine’s capital Sittwe. The news outlet covers armed conflict and human rights violations in the western state that borders Bangladesh. When some family members went to the Sittwe police station where the two were detained, police did not allow them to meet, said Ma Aye Yi, mother of Htet Aung. “When I went there to take lunch [to my son], they told me that [he] had been taken to the military security affairs office for interrogation,” she said. Silencing news outlets The ruling military junta, which seized power in a February 2021 coup, has cracked down on independent media outlets in Myanmar to silence them from reporting about the coup, its violent aftermath, and armed conflict. In 2021, the junta shut down five media outlets that provided independent coverage of the protests against military rule. This year, the regime threatened legal action against Democratic Voice of Burma TV and Mizzima TV, demanding the shuttered independent news broadcasters pay thousands of dollars in transmission fees, VOA reported in July. Soldiers arrested Htet Aung while he was taking news photos at the Wingabar open field in Rakhine’s capital city. Sometime later, about 20 junta troops with police raided DMG’s office and arrested the night watchman. Development Media Group reporter Htet Aung was arrested by Myanmar junta forces in Sittwe, capital of western Myanmar’s Rakhine state, Oct. 29, 2023. Credit: Htet Aung/Facebook The soldiers and police also confiscated cameras, computers and office accessories before sealing the building, DMG news agency officials said. It was a violent suppression of the independent news media, one news agency official said. “We condemn the arresting of journalists and office staff and raiding of the office,” the person said. “It is an act of terrorism. No matter how they suppress us, we will report the truth from the ground as much as we can.” Not the first time Meanwhile, the families of the other workers who fled to safety said they don’t know about their whereabouts. RFA’s calls to the state attorney general, who is the junta’s spokesman for Rakhine state, went unanswered. The State Administration Council, as the junta regime is known, has not yet issued a statement about the raid. This isn’t the first time the military has targeted DMG. In 2019, the military and the military-controlled Home Affairs Ministry under the previous civilian-led government filed a criminal case against DMG editor-in-chief Aung Min Oo for allegedly violating Section 17(2) of the country’s Unlawful Associations Act. The military filed defamation lawsuits under Section 66(d) of the Telecommunications Law against other DMG reporters in 2021. Translated by Htin Aung Kyaw for RFA Burmese. Edited by Roseanne Gerin and Malcolm Foster.
