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Year: 2024

US urges China to push Iran to pressure Houthis over Red Sea attacks

Editor06 mins

U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has asked Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to use Beijing’s influence on Iran to push it to stop the Houthis in Yemen from attacking Red Sea trade routes. The appeal came during two days of meetings in Bangkok between the pair, according to a senior Biden administration official who spoke on condition of anonymity according to rules set by the White House. Over 12 hours, the pair also discussed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Myanmar’s civil war, North Korea, Israel’s war with Hamas, the South China Sea, fentanyl and artificial intelligence, the official said. It was their first meeting since Oct. 26, when Wang visited Washington in the run-up to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s trip to San Francisco in November for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, during which he also held direct talks with U.S. President Joe Biden. The official said the meeting was meant to build on the commitments made during that summit, including to reinstate military-to-military talks and to stem illicit Chinese exports of precursors for fentanyl, which has been called a leading cause of death for American adults. A working group on counternarcotics would be established on Tuesday and both Military-Maritime Consultative Agreement Meetings and talks about regulating artificial intelligence would be held in the Spring.  “The two sides are committed to continuing these strategic channels of communication,” the official said, adding there would be “a telephone call between the two leaders at some point in the coming months.” Diplomatic telephone On the apparently widening conflict in the Middle East that began with the attack on Israel by Hamas on Oct. 7, the White House official said Sullivan had pressed Wang to use Beijing’s influence on Iran to push it to end attacks by Houthis on trade ships transiting the Red Sea. The Houthis’ latest attack took place Friday and this time directly targeted a U.S. warship, the USS Carney, which was patrolling the area to try to prevent further attacks in the lucrative trade route. Both Hamas and the Houthis have been labeled “proxies” of Iran by the United States, with Tehran not viewed as having direct control of either group but being accused of funding and training both. The Houthis, meanwhile, are accused of targeting trade ships off Yemen’s coast in response to Israel’s invasion of Hamas-controlled Gaza. As a major trading nation, China had its own interests in stopping the attacks on the Red Sea route and had the ability to pressure Iran as one of the biggest buyers of its oil, the White House official said. “We would characterize both the economic and trade relationship as giving Beijing leverage over Iran to some extent. How they choose to use that, of course, is China’s choice,” the official said. “Iran’s influence over the Houthis, and the Houthis’ destabilization of global shipping, raises serious concerns not just for the U.S. and China but for global trade,” they added. “There should be a clear interest in China in trying to quiet some of those attacks.” The civil war in Myanmar was also discussed by Sullivan and Wang, building off talks between Sullivan and Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin on Friday, during which the official said Sullivan “stressed the importance” of getting humanitarian aid into Myanmar. However, the official said the United States was less hopeful about China’s assistance in pushing North Korea to end its growing nuclear weapons program or its recent provision of ballistic missiles to Russia. “I’m not sure I would characterize anything recently as constructive,” the official said, adding the United States still hoped China would come round to helping “bring us back to the path of denuclearization.”

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A Critical Survey of the Biggest 5 Economies The Survey Reportika

A Critical Survey of the Biggest 5 Economies: The Survey Reportika

Editor021 mins

In an ever-evolving world, understanding the pulse of the top economies becomes imperative for comprehending global dynamics. This survey aims to delve into the opinions of individuals residing in the five largest economies by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – the United States (USA), China, Japan, Germany, and India – to gauge their sentiments on crucial aspects of governance, democracy, and foreign policy. Introduction to Ij-Reportika’s Survey Series As a new addition to Investigative Journalism Reportika (Ij-Reportika), renowned for its acclaimed investigative reports, this survey marks the inception of “The Survey Reportika” series. Demonstrating our commitment to delivering Vigilant, Visionary, and Varied perspectives, these editions aim to explore public sentiments in the top five economies. Building on the legacy of past successes in investigative journalism, we aspire to provide impactful insights that contribute significantly to ongoing global conversations. “The Survey Reportika” series embodies our dedication to shedding light on critical issues, fostering a deeper understanding of public sentiments, and catalyzing positive changes on a global scale. Stay tuned for thought-provoking analyses and comprehensive reports that will shape discussions in the days to come. Survey Overview Conducted from November 20, 2023, to January 20, 2024, this extensive survey aims to explore the sentiments of 2.4 million participants across the top 5 economies. Utilizing a hybrid approach that blends offline and online methods, the survey ensures diverse representation across genders, religions, and ethnicities. This study is designed to provide a holistic understanding of global perspectives, contributing valuable insights to ongoing conversations on a range of critical issues. Survey Methodology The survey utilized a hybrid methodology, combining online forms hosted on the official Ij-Reportika website and on-the-ground connections facilitated by our reporters. This approach aimed to ensure a thorough and inclusive data collection process, capturing diverse perspectives and experiences. Demographic Focus The study primarily targeted individuals within the 20-45 age group, recognizing this demographic as a key contributor to societal perspectives. Inclusivity was prioritized by encompassing all genders, diverse religious backgrounds, and ethnicities. Time Frame The survey spanned two months from November 20, 2023, to January 20, 2024, allowing for a comprehensive exploration of sentiments. Survey Questions Democracy Governance Foreign Policy Dealing with Smaller States Comparative Analysis Country Wise Reports USA Cities: New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston A significant portion of individuals in the United States express dissatisfaction with the state of democracy, with 15.71% marking their discontent as “Dissatisfied” and a staggering 65.83% as “Extremely Dissatisfied.” The primary concern cited by respondents revolves around the unsettling news of election rigging, casting a shadow on the democratic process. Additionally, there is a prevailing sentiment that global forces like Russia and China, fuelled by information spread on social media platforms like Facebook and TikTok, are undermining the United States and its democratic values. The widespread use of AI, deep fakes, morphed videos, and the proliferation of fake news contribute to the erosion of trust in the democratic system. The sophisticated manipulation of digital content raises fears of misinformation and foreign interference, intensifying concerns about the authenticity and reliability of information, further deepening the unease among respondents. This underscores a broader concern about the stability and fairness of the democratic framework in the country. Read the entire report for the entire analysis and statistics : Q. How satisfied are you with overall performance of your government in addressing economic challenges? Results: Despite a seemingly upbeat quarter marked by impressive economic indicators, including low unemployment rates and substantial market gains, the prevailing sentiment among the people of the United States, especially the youth, points to a significant erosion of faith in the Biden administration’s economic governance. The dissatisfaction of 74.69% in the Survey Reportika suggests that factors such as rising gas prices, lingering unemployment concerns, recession forecasts, and apprehensions about growing Chinese influence in U.S. markets have collectively shaped this perception. It’s essential to recognize that public sentiment is nuanced and extends beyond the performance of a single quarter, especially in an election year. The disconnect between macroeconomic figures of this quarter and the everyday economic realities faced by citizens emphasizes the need for a more comprehensive and sustained approach to address concerns and rebuild trust in governance. Read the entire report for the entire analysis and statistics : Country 2: China Cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen In China, the survey reveals an extreme dissatisfaction in sentiments regarding the state of democracy. Only 4.6% of respondents, expressed satisfaction. On the contrary, a significant 93.17% of respondents, including both overseas and those within China, expressed dissatisfaction. Notably, overseas Chinese were more open in expressing their discontent, particularly directed towards the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and single-party system. Conversely, respondents within China, though reluctant, revealed their dissatisfaction. The challenging task of connecting with Chinese residents inside the country required the use of multiple online platforms and the efforts of on-the-ground reporters to facilitate this crucial survey outreach. The survey results in China paint a concerning picture regarding citizens’ perception of government transparency and accountability. Key factors contributing to a substantial 92.63% dissatisfaction include the mysterious disappearance of prominent figures across politics, sports, and business. The government’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, recurrent protests, and a noticeable rise in corruption cases, particularly within the police force, were cited as prominent reasons for the overwhelming disagreement. These concerns, meticulously uncovered by Ij-Reportika through its groundbreaking reports in the past, underscore the imperative role of investigative journalism in exposing and addressing critical societal issues. Read the entire report for the entire analysis and statistics : Q. How satisfied are you with the overall performance of your government in addressing social challenges? The survey reveals widespread discontent among Chinese citizens, with 85.76% expressing dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of social challenges. Key grievances include concerns about crime, corruption, and organized crime’s resurgence. Social unrest and protests against unfair treatment, particularly regarding land disputes, have fuelled public disillusionment. Discrimination based on class, regional elitism, and gender inequality persists, despite legal efforts. The survey reveals widespread dissatisfaction in China, with distinct regional…

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Thousands flee capital of Myanmar’s Rakhine state as battle looms

Editor06 mins

Thousands of residents have fled the capital of western Myanmar’s Rakhine state in anticipation of a looming battle between the rebel ethnic Arakan Army and junta soldiers, local residents told Radio Free Asia. Fighting in the fortified administrative and military hub of Sittwe is expected to be intense, and would come after close to three months of heightened conflict between the military and the Arakan Army, or AA.  In recent weeks, the AA has seized several junta military camps in the townships that encircle Sittwe, including Mrauk-U, Minbya, Kyauktaw and Rathedaung. The military junta has blocked highways and waterways throughout Rakhine since November, making it hard for people to leave the state capital. Those who have decided to stay are digging bunkers at their homes, placing sandbags nearby and otherwise searching for safe places or moving to nearby rural areas, local residents said. “In Sittwe, you cannot use roads or waterways,” a resident of the state capital told RFA. “So, some leave for Yangon out of fear – and they have to go there by air.” There are four flights a day with about 50 people on each flight, according to the resident, who did not want to be named for security reasons. Several local residents told RFA that plane tickets from Sittwe to Yangon are fully booked until the end of March, and some people are chartering planes to get out. Sittwe’s population is over 120,000, including students from several universities, according to 2019 statistics from the general administration department. Some local residents estimated that as many as 30 percent of residents have already left. Gaining ground The AA and two other rebel groups make up the Three Brotherhood Alliance, which launched a campaign in October on junta forces in the northern and western parts of the country.  Last week, nearly 300 junta troops surrendered to the AA after it took control of two major military junta encampments in Kyauktaw. And on Wednesday, the Three Brotherhood Alliance said in a statement that the AA had won full control of Pauktaw, a port city just 16 miles (25 kilometers) east of Sittwe. Landline and internet connections have been shut down in northern Rakhine’s townships, including Sittwe, residents said. In some areas, only the Mytel telecom network has been available.Residents said they have had to wait one or two days to withdraw cash from banks in Sittwe and are also having difficulty buying basic commodities such as food and oil as prices rise. Plane tickets to Yangon cost between 350,000 kyats (US$166) and 500,000 kyats (US$238), the Sittwe resident said.  “Impoverished individuals and people who can’t afford to buy airline tickets can’t run anywhere,” he said. “They can’t afford to live in Yangon. So there are many people who have to stay here.”    RFA couldn’t immediately reach Rakhine state’s junta spokesperson Hla Thein to ask about the steady stream of residents leaving Sittwe.   At a Jan. 20 meeting with state level departmental officials, junta-appointed Rakhine chief minister Htein Lin said security has become the administration’s top focus in the state. The Sittwe resident who spoke to RFA about flights to Yangon said he and his family are also trying to travel to Myanmar’s biggest city. “I’m worried about being unable to flee home if something happens. I have a family and children,” he said. “Battles can affect children emotionally. I don’t want to force them to live with such hardships.” Translated by Htin Aung Kyaw. Edited by Matt Reed and Malcolm Foster. 

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US national security advisor to meet Chinese Foreign Minister in Bangkok

Editor05 mins

U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and China’s foreign minister Wang Yi are set to meet in Bangkok Friday and Saturday to build on a pledge to deepen their dialogue, despite the two superpowers’ differences on Taiwan. This meeting will be the first high-level talk between the two nations since the U.S. President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping met in the United States in November.  “During the new round of meetings, (Wang) will state China’s position on China-U.S. relations, including the Taiwan issue, and exchange views with the U.S. side on international and regional issues of common interest,” a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson told reporters at a regular press conference on Friday. Upon his arrival in Thailand’s capital Friday, Sullivan first met with Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin and Foreign Minister Parnpree Bahiddha-nukara and discussed ties between the two nations as well as regional and global issues, including efforts to address the worsening crisis in Myanmar. During the meeting, Sullivan emphasized “U.S. commitment to expanding collaboration on trade and investment, accelerating the transition to a clean energy future, deepening the two nations’ people-to-people ties, and broadening our security cooperation as we promote a free and open Indo-Pacific,” according to a White House statement.  Thailand’s Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, left, talks with U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan at the government house in Bangkok, Thailand, Friday, Jan. 26, 2024. (Government Spokesman Office via AP) Thailand, one of the U.S.’s major non-NATO allies and geographically important to the region, however, reaffirmed its non-interference approach. On the China-Taiwan issue, for instance, the Thai side reiterated before the meeting its “vision on Thai-Chinese relations, based on Thailand’s One China policy as well as common interests and international principles that the two countries adhere to, towards the building of a Thailand-China community with a shared future for enhanced stability, prosperity and sustainability.”   Regarding planned talks between Sullivan and Wang, a Thai foreign ministry spokesperson said: “The meeting is actually arranged bilaterally between the two sides. We did not have any role in organizing for the meeting or anything but we are pleased that Thailand is the venue for such a meeting.”  “And we are confident that the dialogue between the two sides will contribute to peace and security and development of the countries in the regions also at the global stage as well.” Dr. Isa Gharti, a public policy researcher at Chiang Mai University, believes the meeting between Sullivan and Wang stresses Thailand’s strategic position as the middleman for the super powers. “The country has a long history of balancing its relationship with China and the U.S., which is appropriate for it  to be the host,” Gharti told Radio Free Asia.  “The role as a facilitator to solve high-level conflict is a positive thing for the Srettha administration,” he added, referring to the current prime minister’s government. Thailand and China will celebrate 50 years of diplomatic ties in 2025, marking 190 years of their relationship. Edited by Taejun Kang and Mike Firn.

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Military battalion camp seized by Kachin rebels in Myanmar’s Shan state

Editor08 mins

An ethnic army has captured the military camp of the junta’s Light Infantry Battalion No. 123 in northern Myanmar’s Shan state, residents and the rebel group said Thursday, capping months of fighting for control of a key trade route with China. The loss of the base means that ethnic rebels now control the entire 130-kilometer (80-mile) trade route from Muse township on the border with China to Hseni, located some 50 kilometers (30 miles) north of northern Shan state’s largest town of Lashio. It is also the latest in a number of setbacks for the military since an ethnic offensive in late October that has seen the Three Brotherhood Alliance capture 15 cities in northern Shan state, seize control of more than 200 military camps, and force the surrender of some 4,000 junta troops. The Kachin Independence Army, or KIA, took control of the camp on Wednesday evening after initially overrunning Nam Hpat Kar town on Jan. 17, KIA spokesman Col. Naw Bu told RFA Burmese. “We heard that the military camp at Nam Hpat Kar was seized around 3 p.m. or 4 p.m., but we haven’t received any details from the field yet,” he said. “We haven’t been able to get a phone connection through.” A resident of Nam Hpat Kar who, like others interviewed for this report, spoke on condition of anonymity due to security concerns, told RFA that KIA soldiers entered the military compound on Wednesday, prompting junta troops to flee toward nearby Tarmoenye township. “I’m sure the KIA troops are now stationed at Light Infantry Battalion No. 123 camp,” he said. “Since the troops retreated toward Tarmoenye, they are following them and clearing them out. The damage to the village is huge.” Ethnic rebels began attacking Nam Hpat Kar township in late August, but the KIA only started the fight for control of the Light Infantry Battalion camp on Jan. 14. Junta forces responded to attacks on the camp with heavy artillery and airstrikes, residents said. The KIA claimed on Jan. 16 that it was able to shoot down a junta jet fighter during fighting in the area. Civilian casualties Another resident of Nam Hpat Kar, who was forced to leave his home amid the fighting, told RFA that the military airstrikes destroyed area homes and caused civilian casualties. “The [KIA] also broke into the houses and fired from inside of them, so the military attacked the houses based on information they received,” he said. “At the moment, out of the eight houses I know [were fired on], four were reduced to ashes. The rest of the houses no longer have walls or roofs.” The resident said at least two civilians were killed in the fighting, but was unable to provide additional details. He said villagers are afraid to return home because of the threat of additional airstrikes. More than 20,000 people live in Nam Hpat Kar, which consists of four wards and nine village tracts. Aid workers said that some 10,000 residents of villagers close to the military camp were forced to flee to monasteries in the townships of Namhkan, Muse, Lashio and other nearby areas amid the clashes. Another resident of Nam Hpat Kar told RFA that, as of Jan. 17, he had documented the deaths of at least 24 civilians due to military airstrikes and artillery fire, and said at least 100 homes had been damaged. The KIA claims to have downed a junta jet fighter during the Nam Hpat Kar battle. On Jan. 25, 2024 an image of the downed jet from the Battle of Nam Hpat Kar was released. (Provided by Citizen Journalist) A social worker who fled from Nam Hpat Kar due to the fighting said on Thursday that the number of casualties and extent of the damage had yet to be fully accounted for, due to severed internet and telephone lines. The junta has not released any statement about the situation in Nam Hpat Kar. KIA demonstrates importance A former military officer, who now works as a commentator on military and political issues in Myanmar, said that the capture of the camp in Nam Hpat Kar is a demonstration of the junta’s increasing weakness in the region. “The attack took 10 days, and we should praise the bravery [of the junta troops] who resisted it,” he said. But he criticized the military’s leadership for failing to do enough to hold the camp. “[Nearby] Kutkai and Namhkan [townships were] seized by the [Ta’ang National Liberation Army],” the former officer said, referring to one of the three ethnic armies that, along with the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Arakan Army, form the Three Brotherhood Alliance. “Now, Nam Hpat Kar, which is located at the top of the road heading to Namhkan, has been captured. So now it is all done, and [the KIA] has demonstrated the importance of its role [in fighting the military],” he said.    In the five months of fighting between ethnic armies and the junta for Nam Hpat Kar, more than 50 civilians – including women and children – were killed, according to residents. Translated by Htin Aung Kyaw. Edited by Joshua Lipes and Matt Reed.

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Myanmar court orders sale of jailed Suu Kyi’s historic home

Editor04 mins

A Yangon court has ruled in favor of Myanmar’s junta selling jailed former State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi’s historic family home, a source close to the court told Radio Free Asia on Thursday.  The court issued an order to allow junta officials to put the house up for auction on Mar. 20 for a reserve price of roughly US$90 million, the source said, asking to remain anonymous because he was not authorized to speak to the media. “The price that has been decided would be divided up after auctioning and selling,” he said. “Now, the order has been implemented. It determined the reserve price of the auction and set the date of the auction and when the sale will be made.” The source claimed the Kamayut District Court in Yangon region that issued Thursday’s order was junta-affiliated. A cordoned-off entrance with insignia for the National League for Democracy (NLD) party is pictured near the house of detained former leader Aung San Suu Kyi, in Yangon on June 23, 2022. (STR/AFP) Ownership of the historic lakeside home and yard at 54, University Avenue in Yangon’s Bahan township has long been disputed by Aung San Suu Kyi and her brother Aung San Oo. The house was awarded to Aung San Suu Kyi’s mother, Khin Kyi, after Gen. Aung San was assassinated in 1947.  On Aug. 22, 2022, the junta-controlled Union Supreme Court declared the house would be auctioned under Aung San Oo’s appeal.  Aung San Suu Kyi lived there for almost 15 years under house arrest during the military regime. The shadow National Unity Government has designated the house a national cultural heritage site and announced that legal action will be taken if the junta sells it. Aung San Suu Kyi, right, and then-U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton tour the grounds after meetings at Suu Kyi’s residence in Yangon, Myanmar Friday, Dec. 2, 2011. (AP Photo/Saul Loeb, Pool) Aung San Suu Kyi was arrested along with former President Win Myint and other leaders of the deposed National League for Democracy party shortly after the military seized power in a Feb. 2021 coup. The junta sentenced the 78-year-old to 33 years in prison for 19 charges. Last August she was partially pardoned for five of them as part of a general amnesty, reducing her sentence to 27 years.  The Nobel Peace Prize laureate was initially jailed in solitary confinement in Yangon’s Insein Prison. It’s not clear where she is currently being held. Translated by RFA Burmese. Edited by Mike Firn.

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Residents fear junta attack, despite NUG control in Myanmar’s Sagaing

Editor08 mins

Myanmar’s shadow National Unity Government has claimed administrative control of four key towns in the northern region of Sagaing following their fall to resistance forces, but residents say they still live in constant fear of attacks by the military. Beginning in November, anti-junta forces seized the towns of Kawlin, Khampat, Shwe Pyi Aye and Maw Lu. National Unity Government, or NUG, officials entered the towns shortly afterward and set up basic administrative services. “The civil administrative mechanism was put in place after the first round of conflicts,” said an information officer with the People’s Administration Organization in Khampat who, like others interviewed for this report, spoke to RFA Burmese on condition of anonymity due to security concerns. “The town is now firmly under the control of the NUG and the People’s Administration Organization is formed and functioning,” he said. But a series of junta attacks on the towns since their seizure have left residents fearing for their safety, and some who have fled their homes say they are reluctant to return. From Dec. 10-16, Khampat township was the center of fierce fighting due to incursions by junta forces, while on Jan. 7, the military conducted airstrikes that hit a church service in the township’s Ka Nan village, killing 17 civilians, including nine children, and injuring 19 others, according to a report by the NUG. “It is safer to travel than before due to fewer security checkpoints,” a resident of the township told RFA Burmese. “But we are constantly alert to loud noises of cars and motorcycles, as we live in fear of airstrikes. We are still worried that fighting will resume.” Soldiers with the civilian National Unity Government take part in training near the Myanmar-Thai border, Oct. 8, 2021. (AFP) Similarly, a joint force of anti-junta fighters under the NUG and members of the ethnic Kachin Independence Army seized Kawlin on Nov. 6, and the NUG began administering the town on Dec. 6. But residents told RFA that civilians have since been killed by junta artillery attacks and said transporting goods around the area remains unsafe. “The junta is blocking cargo trucks and travelers into Kawlin … so there are many difficulties affecting the flow of commodities,” one inhabitant of the town said. “The junta’s Light Infantry Battalion No. 120 fires artillery shells from [nearby] Wuntho township … [and] more than 10 civilians were killed after the town fell under the control of resistance forces.”  Residents said that on Jan. 2, a junta artillery attack on Kawlin’s market killed six civilians, and injured two. Five days later, the bodies of 19 civilians killed by the military council were discovered near Wuntho township, six of whom were from Kawlin, they said. NUG governing with ‘all possible resources’ Some residents told RFA that they feel they have the right to expect better protection from the NUG, now that the shadow government has assumed administrative control in their towns. Kyaw Zaw, the spokesperson of the NUG President’s Office, said that his administration is doing the best it can with the resources in the areas under its control. “We are implementing civil administrative mechanisms with all possible resources, while our defense forces are working to prevent attacks by the junta,” he said.  He added that the NUG has established interim administration in more than 170 townships across the country, and is working to enhance rule of law, development, education, health and the economy. In other towns, the NUG has faced challenges implementing its goals, acknowledged a member of the People’s Administration Organization in Maw Lu township, who also declined to be named citing fear of reprisal. “We have experienced some difficulties in the administrative process as we are not civil service personnel,” he said of the town, which was seized by a joint force of the Kachin Independence Army, the All Burma Students’ Democratic Front, and anti-junta People’s Defense Force paramilitaries on Dec. 13. The St. Peter Baptist Church-Kanan, in Kanan village, Khampat town, Sagaing region was struck by the suspected military aerial bombardments, seen here Jan. 8, 2024. Myanmar’s military attacks buildings of every religion all over the country, according to rights activists. (David Htan/AP) A resident of Maw Lu confirmed that inhabitants have “many needs” at the moment. “We have been relieved from some adversities [under the junta], but frankly, we don’t enjoy total peace,” the resident said. “We expect a genuine democracy, in which an administration treats us humanely. We hope the people will not have to suffer much longer and that the end of revolution will come as soon as possible.” The junta has issued no statements about the towns it lost to the NUG in Sagaing region. According to a Nov. 28 report by the independent research group ISP-Myanmar, which documents the impact of conflict on civilians in the country, at least 119 armed clashes took place in Sagaing since the Oct. 27 launch of Operation 1027, an offensive led by the Three Brotherhood Alliance of ethnic armies. Translated by Aung Naing. Edited by Joshua Lipes and Matt Reed.

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Nearly 40 Myanmar civilians dead after four-day clash

Editor04 mins

Intense battles between junta troops, the Kachin Independence Army and joint People’s Defense Forces have killed 40 civilians, locals told Radio Free Asia on Wednesday.  Fighting in northern Myanmar has surged for four days as allied resistance forces and junta troops fight for control over Shan state’s Mongmit city. Junta airstrikes and heavy weapons are responsible for civilian deaths, residents who witnessed battles said.  Fighting began last Thursday, when the Kachin Independence Army captured Mongmit Police Station and junta camps in the city, and ended on Sunday. The military retaliated with heavy arms and indiscriminate airstrikes, burning Mongmit market and causing high civilian casualties, locals said.  Most victims were from the southern neighborhoods of Mongmit, said one resident who wished to remain anonymous for fear of reprisals. “We can’t say the number of the people who died in the neighborhood yet. For sure, the southern neighborhood has the most deaths, including Let Hkoke Tan and Haw Nan,” he said. “I can estimate that there are almost 40 dead and they all are civilians.” One local who fled the city on Saturday told RFA he witnessed the deaths of civilians and junta soldiers while fighting raged in the city center. He has since seen casualty lists circulated. “I saw four dead civilians. I can confirm that one military officer and about seven junta soldiers were dead when we left the city,” he said, asking to remain anonymous to protect his identity. “I don’t know the current situation of the city because the phone lines are down now.” At least 10 people were injured and are being treated at nearby village clinics, he added. Continuous aerial attacks and shelling damaged and destroyed houses downtown and in the city’s south, locals said, adding that homes near the police station were burned down. About 150 shops in the market caught fire and several monasteries were also damaged by heavy artillery, according to residents. Calls to Shan state’s junta spokesperson Khun Thein Maung and national spokesperson Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun by RFA to learn more went unanswered Wednesday. Kachin Independence Army spokesperson Col. Naw Bu said he could not confirm details about the battles due to phone line outages in the area. Telecommunication and internet access have been cut off in Mongmit city where fighting occurred. More than 10,000 people have fled the city, residents said.  Translated by RFA Burmese. Edited by Mike Firn.

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Fate of junta officers unclear following surrender to rebels in Myanmar’s Shan state

Editor08 mins

Speculation is swirling over the fate of six brigadiers-general from the Burmese military following their surrender of a strategic Shan state city to ethnic rebels earlier this month in a humiliating setback to the ruling junta. The six were commanding officers deployed in the junta’s Kokang regional command center at Laukkai, the largest base in northern Shan state near the Chinese border. The base was overrun on Jan. 4 by the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, or MNDAA, prompting 2,100 soldiers in the facility to lay down their arms. Soldiers and family members were permitted to leave by the rebels. Sources close to the military told RFA Burmese that on Jan. 6, the six generals were flown by helicopter to the Northeast Regional Military Command headquarters, and later sent to the capital Naypyidaw.  The sources spoke on condition of anonymity due to security concerns. AFP, citing an unnamed military source, said the six generals had been taken into custody. The Irrawaddy online news journal on Tuesday cited unnamed “junta sources” as saying that three had been sentenced to death, and three jailed for life. The sources said the six had been charged under military law for “shamefully abandoning” their posts. RFA could not immediately confirm the sentences. AFP on Tuesday quoted the junta spokesman Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun as saying there was “no sentence for the six brigadier-generals yet.” The officers were identified as Brigadiers-General Moe Kyaw Thu, the head of Laukkai headquarters; Tun Tun Myint, the acting chief of the Kokang Self-Administered Zone; and Zaw Myo Win, commander of the 55th Division; and Aye Min Oo, Thaw Zin Oo, and Aung Zaw Lin – the heads of Operation Centers 14, 16, and 12, respectively. Sentences may have repercussions Analysts said that stiff sentences for the generals could have major repercussions within the military. Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington and an adjunct at Georgetown University, called the reported sentences “extremely draconian,” adding that, if true, they are “likely to cause an enormous backlash within the senior officer corps,” particularly if they were simply following orders from Naypyidaw. Regardless, he said, “no amount of scapegoats will make up for the SAC’s gross incompetence in managing the economy and war effort,” using an acronym for the official name of the junta, the State Administration Council. This photo taken on Dec. 10, 2023 shows members of the Mandalay People’s Defense Forces on patrol amid clashes with Myanmar’s military in northern Shan State.(AFP) Former Captain Aung Myo Khat, who now advises Myanmar’s resistance forces as part of the anti-junta Civil Disobedience Movement, agreed that the officers had likely surrendered on Naypyidaw’s orders, and that dealing with them had become a delicate situation for the junta. “If the soldiers who retreated learn about [the junta leadership] taking such action against their commanders, there may be a rebellion,” he said. “On the other hand, if no action is taken, battalion commanders and officers … in all parts of Myanmar may also follow in their footsteps and surrender. So, I think [junta leaders] are in a dilemma.” Than Soe Naing, a political commentator in Myanmar, said that regardless of who ordered the surrender, it was “a result of [the junta’s] mismanagement.” “Now there are lots of complaints about [mismanagement] in the army, and soldiers have lost confidence,” he said. “The idea that they cannot win the battle and therefore have to launch a suicide attack or surrender is dominating [the mindset of junta troops] in the entire Northeast region, and its spreading.” Leadership facing criticism The MNDAA claims that the seizure of Laukkai resulted in the largest surrender by the military during Operation 1027, an offensive it began in late October as part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance of ethnic armies, along with the Ta’ang National Liberation Army and the Arakan Army. Since its launch, the alliance has reportedly captured 15 cities in northern Shan state, seized control of more than 200 military camps, and prompted the surrender of some 4,000 junta troops. Myanmar’s military chief Min Aung Hlaing makes a speech during a defense and security council meeting in Naypyidaw, Jan. 31, 2023. (Provided by Myanmar Military Information Team/AFP) Nearly three years since its February 2021 coup d’etat, the military’s control of Myanmar is “rapidly diminishing,” Zach Abuza said, noting that there are growing calls for junta chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing to step down. “There will be schisms within the military leadership between those who are interested in negotiating a political settlement and those who feel that the military hasn’t been sufficiently resolute in crushing the dissent,” he said. Min Aung Hlaing has faced increasing criticism over his handling of Operation 1027 and for allowing Myanmar’s once-strong military to appear weak under his watch. Edited by Joshua Lipes and Mat Pennington.

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China unlikely to invade Taiwan in next 5 years: survey

Editor06 mins

China is unlikely to invade Taiwan in the next five years, a survey released this week showed. But Beijing is capable of executing “a law enforcement-led quarantine and a People’s Liberation Army (PLA)-led blockade of Taiwan,” according to experts who took part in a survey by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released on Monday.  A quarantine to substantially reduce trade into, and communications with, Taiwan would put significant pressure on the island and could serve as the prelude to a blockade by the PLA or a full-on amphibious invasion, said the experts.  The new poll – “Surveying the Experts: U.S. and Taiwan Views on China’s Approach to Taiwan” – was released by the CSIS’s China Power Project just after Taiwan elected its new president, Lai Ching-te. It was conducted from Nov. 28 to Dec. 15, 2023 – before the presidential poll – with the participation of 87 experts, 52 from the U.S. and 35 from Taiwan, all leading academics or former officials. Invasion unlikely Responding experts said that in the next five years, “if China seeks to coerce Taiwan, Beijing’s most likely course of action would be a law enforcement-led quarantine of Taiwan.” But “if China’s goal is to force immediate unification of Taiwan, a PLA-led highly kinetic joint blockade” is the most likely scenario, according to 80% of respondents. Without U.S. intervention, most experts did not believe Taiwan could resist a blockade for more than three months.  Just 26% of U.S. respondents and 17% of Taiwanese respondents agreed that China has the military capability to effectively launch an amphibious invasion of Taiwan within the next five years.  The rest had much lower confidence in China’s ability as such invasion would require “a much larger commitment of military forces than a quarantine or blockade, and the operations involved would be significantly more complicated.” Soldiers at the 2nd Battalion of the Taiwanese army’s 58th Artillery Command conduct an exercise in Jan. 2024. (Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense) Taiwanese experts seemed to have a lower perception of the China threat compared to U.S. experts – only 51% of them believed that China could sustain a high-intensity conflict for more than a year versus 71% of American respondents. Among U.S. experts, 44% believed China would be willing to detonate nuclear weapons against U.S. or coalition forces during a Taiwan conflict, but only 11% of Taiwanese experts thought the same. U.S. support While virtually all U.S. respondents were confident that their country would intervene militarily in the case of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, 9% of Taiwanese respondents said they were not confident. And 11% of Taiwanese experts were not confident that the U.S. would intervene if China conducted a joint sea and air blockade of Taiwan. Some 63% of U.S. experts believed that America would step in against a quarantine of Taiwan, but only 40% of their Taiwanese peers thought so.  The survey’s authors explained that these lower levels of confidence stemmed from various factors, the first of which was that “U.S. support for Taiwan is conditional.” “The goal of U.S. policy toward Taiwan has long been to avoid moves by either side of the Taiwan Strait to unilaterally shift the status quo,” they said, “and if Taiwan’s actions precipitate a conflict, the United States may be disinclined to intervene.” The second factor lies in China’s campaign of misinformation and disinformation in Taiwan about U.S. willingness to support Taipei. “These efforts are aimed at causing the Taiwan public to lose hope and feel that unification is their only option,” the survey authors said. Beijing, on the other hand, “has little doubt that Washington would defend Taiwan,” they added.  Edited by Taejun Kang and Mike Firn.

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Investigative Journalism Reportika © March 2022 by Ij-Reportika is licensed under CC BY 4.0