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China’s dependency on potash imports could give tiny Laos rare leverage

Let’s start with the good news – potentially great news, in fact – for Southeast Asia: Laos could be sitting on 10 billion tons of potash, one of the three main fertilizers used in global agriculture. In 2022, a subsidiary of the Chinese company Asia-Potash International announced a $4.3 billion investment in a potash mining venture in Khammouane province. This deal grants exploration rights to 48 square kilometers for potassium ore. The company reckons it can start with producing 1 million metric tons of potash annually, scale up to 5 million tons by 2025 and eventually reach 7 to 10 million tons. For a comparison, Canada, the world’s largest potash producer, exported around 23 million metric tons, valued at approximately $6.6 billion, in 2023. In 2022, Laos’s potash exports were valued at approximately $580 million, representing about 1.7 percent of global supply. It isn’t inconceivable that Laos will become a global player. Location helps Laos Geography is key. Next door is China, the world’s largest importer of food and food inputs, and the world’s third-biggest purchaser of potash. China imports around 8 million metric tons each year, about half of its demand, although that is increasing. China is the world’s biggest producer of potatoes, which are very reliant on potassium. China’s potato heartlands – Yunnan, Guizhou and Sichuan provinces – are on Laos’ doorstep. Guangdong province, China’s main banana producer, isn’t too far away. There’s ample room for Laos to expand potash exports in Southeast Asia, too. Indonesia, the world’s fourth-largest potash importer, bought around $2.1 billion worth in 2022, with Laos holding a 6 percent market share. Malaysia, the sixth-largest importer, spent around $1 billion on potash, with Laos having a 2 percent share. Laos is already the largest supplier of potash to Vietnam, with exports worth about $82 million in 2022. Officials with Sino-Agri International Potash Co., Ltd. and the Lao government sign a memorandum of understanding March 24, 2023, to build a smart eco-industrial city in Khammouane province. (Pathedlao) If, for instance, Laos was to replace suppliers like Jordan and Israel and capture a 20% share of China’s potash import market, its exports could rise to around US$750-800 million, making potash Laos’ second-largest export product, after energy. Right now, the spot price for potassium chloride is US$307 per metric ton. So, loosely, 10 million tons exported a year would bring in around US$3 billion. Expectations shouldn’t be that high, though. It’s one thing for a Chinese investor to promise to produce 10 million tons a year and it’s another thing for it to actually deliver it. And because it’s a Chinese firm selling the goods, most of the money won’t stay in Laos. And there are already the same complaints as with every Chinese investment: Asia-Potash International isn’t hiring local workers. Geopolitics Nonetheless, estimates vary, but there still could be between $30 million and $300 million in annual revenue for the Lao state. Almost certainly it will be towards the lower end, but it’s not to be sniffed at by the badly-indebted government. However, consider the geostrategic implications. Up until now, China hasn’t really needed Laos. It lacks the strategic importance of Cambodia, with its naval base on the Gulf of Thailand, or the trade routes offered by Myanmar, where China is developing a $7 billion port to access the Indian Ocean for oil and LNG imports from the Gulf. In 2022, Laos accounted for a mere 0.1 percent of China’s total imports; food makes up less than a tenth of that, so Laos isn’t a solution to China’s future food insecurity. A bulldozer works on a large hill of potash at the Dead Sea Works in Israel’s Sodom area, Feb. 16, 2016. (Menahem Kahana/AFP) China’s primary import from Laos is pulped paper, not energy. Instead, China constructs hydropower dams and coal-fired stations in Laos, which generate electricity sold to Thailand and Vietnam. Geostrategically, Laos is a useful ally for Beijing to have because of its ASEAN membership, but Vientiane holds little weight in the regional bloc. Should something drastic occur in Laos – such as the fall of the ruling communist party or the emergence of an anti-China government – Beijing would be displeased and Chinese investments would be at risk, but China’s national security would be unaffected. That situation changes if Laos becomes a significant supplier of potash. If projections are correct and Laos can produce between 7-10 million tons of potash annually, it could theoretically more than meet China’s entire import demand. That makes Laos a national security interest for Beijing. Food security The Chinese government is preparing itself for military conflict. It knows that in the event it launches an invasion of Taiwan or attacks a rival state in the South China Sea, the West will hammer it with economic sanctions so damaging it would make the retribution reaped on Russia look like a slap on the wrist. Self-sufficiency and diversification are the buzzwords. But it’s doubtful that China – arguably the country most dependent on world trade and on U.S. protection of shipping routes – could survive such sanctions. Even short of war, food security has long been a major concern for China., for reasons too long to go into. According to Xi Jinping, the supreme leader, food security is the “foundation for national security.” Beijing is also concerned that its reliance on imported fertilizer inputs “could pose a major threat to its food security”. There’s no way China can achieve the food self-sufficiency that Xi wants, as was spelled out in a detailed study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a U.S. thinktank. Farmers operate rice seedling transplanters in Taizhou, in eastern China’s Jiangsu province, June 12, 2024. (AFP) China can domestically produce enough nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, the latter essential for phosphate-hungry rice. But almost all of China’s phosphate is produced in Xinjiang and Tibet, far away from the rice-growing Han heartland and where the local population is largely hostile to rule by Beijing. China will remain…

Exiled Tibetan political leader honored with democracy medal

Editor1 month ago06 mins

The leader of Tibet’s government-in-exile on Thursday won the Democracy Service Medal from the U.S.-based National Endowment for Democracy, recognizing Sikyong Penpa Tsering’s commitment to advancing democracy and promoting the dignity of the Tibetan people. In his acceptance speech, Tsering dedicated the award to Tibetans inside Tibet and in exile, and to the Dalai Lama, acknowledging the Tibetan Buddhist spiritual leader’s role in defending democracy and human rights for all Tibetans. “I am an ordinary person, but His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama is the architect and spirit behind everything that we are now or what we have today,” he said. during the award ceremony at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in Washington. “This award is for the people I serve,” said Tsering, who is head of the Central Tibetan Administration. The award, which honors people defending democracy worldwide, was also given to former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell, Russian opposition leader Vladimir Kara-Murza and Free Belarus leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. The Dalai Lama reacts after receiving the National Endowment for Democracy’s Democracy Service Medal during a ceremony at the Library of Congress in Washington, Feb. 19, 2010. (Jason Reed/Reuters) Since taking office after winning the 2021 democratic elections which saw a 77% voter turnout, Sikyong Penpa Tsering has worked to counter Chinese influence and mobilised Tibet’s allies to speak up against the suppression of cultural identity within Tibet, said Castro. “In recognition of those efforts, it’s my honour to present the 2024 democracy service medal to Sikyong Penpa Tsering on behalf of the National Endowment for Democracy. Also on Thursday, the Tibet Action Institute received the endowment’s Democracy Award for its work in documenting the Chinese Communist Party’s efforts to erase Tibetan children’s identity by forcibly enrolling them in state-run boarding schools in Tibet. The Regional Center for Human Rights and the Waey Organisation also received the Democracy Award. The National Endowment for Democracy, founded in 1983, promotes democracy worldwide through grants funded primarily by the U.S. Congress. Resolve Tibet Act The ceremony came a day after the U.S. Congress passed the Resolve Tibet Act, urging China to resolve the Tibet-China dispute through dialogue. It now awaits President Joe Biden’s signature to become law. It calls on Beijing to resume dialogue with the Dalai Lama, who is the spiritual leader of Tibet, and other Tibetan leaders about how Tibet is governed. No formal talks have taken place since 2010. The National Endowment for Democracy’s Democracy Service Medal is pictured before being presented to the Dalai Lama at the Library of Congress in Washington, Feb. 19, 2010. (Jason Reed/Reuters) Tsering welcomed the passage of the bill and expressed hope that Biden would sign it into law soon. He also confirmed that a congressional bipartisan delegation led by Rep. Michael McCaul and which includes Pelosi, is set to meet with the Dalai Lama and Central Tibetan Administration leaders in India on June 19. Tsering also presented Pelosi — a long-time Tibet supporter and strong China critic — with her award, while lauding her unwavering fight for democracy, and against authoritarianism, everywhere. Pelosi commended the endowment for its efforts to highlight global injustices. “One of the cruelest tactics used by oppressors is to imprison people and make them disappear, hoping they will be forgotten.” she said. “But we do not forget them,” she said. “Our members of Congress, in a bipartisan manner, consistently raise their names—whether on the House floor, in meetings with heads of state, or during visits to other countries.” Additional reporting by Yeshi Tashi and Tenzin Pema. Edited by Eugene Whong and Malcolm Foster.

US defense chief seeks to reassure Asia-Pacific partners

Editor2 months ago08 mins

U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has reconfirmed Washington’s strong commitment to the Indo-Pacific, as well as to working with allies and partners in the face of growing rivalry with China. Austin spoke at the Shangri-La Dialogue annual security forum on Saturday, just a day after meeting with his Chinese counterpart to open lines of communication between the two world powers. This was the secretary’s third time to speak at the forum and likely his last as a U.S. presidential election in November may bring changes in defense diplomacy. The Indo-Pacific “has remained our priority theater of operations,” Austin said, seeking to brush off concerns that other security challenges in Ukraine and Gaza may have shifted U.S. attention. He stressed that Washington is “deeply committed” to the region, adding “We are all in. And we’re not going anywhere.” He went on to list a number of cooperation projects between the U.S and countries including Australia, Japan, India and the Philippines. Austin said that the U.S. “can be secure only if Asia is secure.” “The defense secretary’s speech shows that the dynamics of U.S. strategic partnerships may have changed because Washington has to balance different world regions, but not so much,” said Alexander Vuving, professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Hawaii. Other factors that may have contributed to the slight shift, in Vuving’s opinion, are U.S. domestic politics and the “responses of regional states and non-state actors to the weakening of the current international order.” The Pentagon chief, meanwhile, emphasized what he called the “power of partnerships” amid a “new convergence” in the region. “This new convergence is about coming together, not splitting apart. It isn’t about imposing one country’s will,” Austin said in an apparent dig at China, “It isn’t about bullying or coercion. It’s about the free choices of sovereign states.” Beijing has been accused by some of its neighbors of acting aggressively in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. In his keynote speech on Friday, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. condemned “assertive actions that aim to propagate excessive, baseless claims through force, intimidation and deception,” believed to be committed by Beijing. The Philippines has accused Chinese coast guard vessels of harassing and preventing Filipino fishermen and law enforcement agencies from operating in the disputed waters of the South China Sea. While not mentioning China, Austin said that “the harassment that the Philippines has faced is dangerous” and the peaceful resolution of disputes should be achieved through dialogue and not coercion or conflict. “And certainly not through so-called punishment.” Just 10 days ago, the Chinese military held large-scale “punishment” drills around Taiwan after Lai Ching-te was sworn in as the new president of the democratic island. Strengthening partnerships The U.S. House of Representatives last month passed a $8-billion defense package to help Taipei counter Beijing, which considers Taiwan a Chinese province that should be reunited with the mainland, by force if necessary. China reacted angrily, saying this sends the wrong signal to “Taiwan independence separatist forces” and the “military collusion” between the U.S. and Taiwan would only push up tensions and the risk of conflict and confrontation in the Taiwan Strait. China has long said Washington is trying to build a NATO-like alliance in the Asia-Pacific, an accusation that was brought up and denied on Saturday by the U.S. defense secretary. Replying to a question by Chinese Senior Col. Yanzhong Cao about the U.S.’ “alliance system” in the region, Austin said that “like-minded countries with similar values and a common vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific are working together to achieve that vision.” “And we will continue to do those kinds of things going forward,” he said. The defense secretary, however, called for better communication with China, saying that “dialogue is not a reward, it is a necessity,” and that “there’s no substitute for open lines of communication to avoid misunderstanding and miscalculations.” U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin meets with Chinese Minister of Defense Adm. Dong Jun in Singapore, May 31, 2024. (U.S. Department of Defense) Austin and the Chinese minister of national defense, Adm. Dong Jun, held a one-hour meeting on Friday to discuss U.S.-China defense relations and other security issues. It was the first in-person meeting between the twos, marking a resumption of communication after then-defense minister Li Shangfu declined a meeting with Austin last year Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson Wu Qian told reporters afterwards that it showed the bilateral military relations were stabilizing. “The resumption of exchanges does not mean that differences and conflicts between the two countries have been resolved,” warned a Taiwanese analyst. “China is still conducting military exercises around Taiwan and the U.S. continues joint exercises with the Philippines and other allies,” said Shen Ming-Shih from the Institute for National Defense and Security Research in Taipei. He added that while both sides keep pursuing their own objectives, the best they can do is to “have more dialogue and exercise restraint.” Edited by Mike Firn.

South Korea, China, Japan to hold trilateral talks on May 26-27 in Seoul

Editor2 months ago05 mins

Leaders of South Korea, China and Japan will meet on May 26-27 in Seoul for their first trilateral talks in more than four years, South Korea’s presidential office said on Thursday. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol will have bilateral talks with Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Sunday, ahead of their three-way gathering on Monday, South Korea’s deputy national security adviser, Kim Tae-hyo, said. The summit will cover six areas of cooperation: economy and trade, sustainable development, health issues, science and technology, disaster and safety management, and people-to-people exchanges, Kim said, adding that the leaders would issue a joint statement. The leaders will also discuss regional and international issues and meet about 80 businesspeople at a dinner on Sunday and a business forum the next day, Kim said. “The summit will serve as a turning point for fully restoring and normalizing the trilateral cooperation system among South Korea, Japan and China,” he added. “It will also provide an opportunity to recover future-oriented and practical cooperation momentum that will allow the people of the three countries to feel the benefits.” The neighbors held an inaugural stand-alone trilateral summit in 2008, and were supposed to meet annually after that. But the summit has been suspended since it was last held in December 2019, in China, because of bilateral feuds and the COVID-19 pandemic. Relations between all three have been fraught for various reasons over recent years. South Korea and Japan are working to improve relations strained due to historical disputes stemming from Japan’s wartime aggression. They are also strengthening their trilateral security partnership with the United States amid growing rivalry between China and the U.S. Japan, South Korea and the United States underscored their security cooperation against North Korean threats and reinforced their commitment to a “free and open Indo-Pacific” during an August 2023 Camp David summit. In 2018, the year before the last summit between the three Asian neighbors, in the Chinese city of Chengdu, North Korea unexpectedly changed its aggressive stance toward the U.S. and South Korea. Seoul, in turn, eased its criticism of Pyongyang. Japan, however, continued to prioritize pressure on North Korea, causing disagreement with Seoul over North Korea policy. By the 2019 talks, the three neighbors could only agree on a general policy of cooperating on efforts to denuclearize North Korea. China and South Korea have also clashed in recent years over a U.S. missile defense shield installed in South Korea. Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin criticized the U.S. and its allies for their “intimidation in the military sphere” of North Korea at a recent bilateral summit. In March, Russia vetoed a U.N. resolution to extend a monitoring panel for enforcing North Korean sanctions, while China abstained, blocking U.S.-led efforts to control Pyongyang’s weapons program. Edited by Mike Firn.

Australia sanctions entities linked to North Korea-Russia arms deal

Editor2 months ago04 mins

Updated May 17, 2024, 04:47 a.m. ET. Australia has imposed targeted sanctions against entities linked to the unlawful weapons trade between North Korea and Russia. “Australia is imposing targeted financial sanctions, in coordination with international partners, on a further six entities associated with North Korea’s supply of arms and related materiel to Russia,” said Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong in a statement on Friday. “Australia condemns, in the strongest possible terms, North Korea’s illegal export and Russia’s procurement and use of North Korean ballistic missiles, in support of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine.” Noting the continued transfer of weapons from North Korea to Russia is a flagrant violation of multiple United Nations Security Council resolutions, Wong said Australia would work with Western allies to hold Russia and North Korea to account and address the security threat posed by the North. Wong’s statement came a day after the United States announced sanctions on two Russian individuals and three Russian companies for facilitating arms transfers with Pyongyang. U.S. Treasury officials said in a statement that the two countries had strengthened their military cooperation over the past year, with the North providing ballistic missiles and munitions to Russia in return for weapons and economic aid. The U.S., South Korea and others have accused Pyongyang of supplying Moscow with weapons to use in its war in Ukraine – an accusation that both countries have denied. A now-defunct U.N. panel of experts tasked with investigating violations of sanctions related to North Korea’s prohibited nuclear and ballistic missile programs, released a report in March, detailing with photographs Russia’s arms dealings with North Korea. A few hours after Australia’s announcement, North Korea fired several short-range ballistic missiles off its east coast, the South Korean military said. “We identified several projectiles believed to be short-range ballistic missiles fired into the East Sea [Sea of Japan] from the Wonsan area of North Korea,” the Joint Chiefs of Staff said. The North Korean missile flew about 300 km (186 miles) before falling into the Sea of Japan, the JCS added. This is North Korea’s fifth ballistic missile test launch this year. The JCS said it was analyzing details of the missiles and shared relevant information with the U.S. and Japan. “We strongly condemn North Korea’s missile launch as a clear act of provocation that seriously threatens the peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula,” the JCS said, adding that South Korea will closely monitor the North’s activities. Edited by Mike Firn. This story was updated to include information about North Korea’s missile launch.

Upbeat video casts Kim Jong Un as North Korea’s father figure

Editor3 months ago05 mins

An upbeat and unusually high quality propaganda music video coming out of North Korea purports to show a prosperous, modern society full of happy people who love their leader. Titled “Friendly Father,” the rousing song depicts soldiers, students, steel workers and others singing Kim Jong Un’s praises. “He is holding his 10 million children in his arms and taking care of us with all his heart,” go the lyrics. But the video also shows some equipment used to produce the song that may be in violation of international sanctions that have banned the import of luxury goods into North Korea since 2006. They include Korg and Roland synthesizers, headphones by Sony and a speaker from U.S.-based Harmon Kardon. An analysis of the equipment appeared on a keyboard enthusiasts page on popular internet bulletin board Reddit, where the keyboards were identified as the Korg Kronos and the Roland FA-07. The synthesizers sell for between US$2,000 and $3,000 in the United States. Luxury goods were defined by the U.N. Sanctions Committee on North Korea as those beyond the purchasing ability of ordinary North Korean residents. Japan therefore defines expensive musical instruments as luxury goods. RFA was not able to confirm how or when the equipment was imported to North Korea. A spokesperson from Roland stated in an email that the company has never sold any products to North Korea, adding that the Roland FA-07 was manufactured in 2014, but that no purchase records from that year were available. Evading sanctions North Korean media often shows the use of foreign goods that should be barred due to sanctions. According to NK news, a media specializing in North Korea, on April 28th, six Toyota SUVs and a Land Cruiser 300 that had never been seen before, appeared in Kim Jong Un’s security procession. North Korea is flaunting its ability to evade sanctions by showcasing sanctioned items in media, Bruce Klingner, Senior Research Fellow at the Heritage Foundation, explained in a phone call with RFA “It just encourages the entity, whether it’s governments or businesses, to just continue violating the rule,” he said. “What we’ve seen is a number of nations, predominantly China and Russia, who blatantly violate the U.N. resolutions by assisting North Korea.” A Korg Kronos is displayed May 7, 2011. (synthfiend via Wikipedia) Though the video focuses on scenes of happy North Korean people, when it shows Kim Jong Un, it attempts to portray him as acting fatherly towards children. In one shot he is hugging a small child while another looks on. In the next, he meets several young students who cry at his very presence. A third shot shows several male members of the military embracing the smiling leader. “Let’s love Kim Jong Un, our friendly father,” the lyrics say. “We all trust and follow him with one heart.” Translated by Claire S. Lee and Leejin J. Chung. Edited by Eugene Whong.

Blinken to visit China amid claims about Russia support

Editor3 months ago010 mins

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will travel to China on Wednesday, according to a senior State Department official, in a trip that comes as he and others in Washington accuse Beijing of “fueling” Russia’s war in Ukraine by helping to resupply its military. Blinken will travel to Shanghai and Beijing from Wednesday to Friday, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the plans ahead of time. The official said he could not yet confirm that Blinken would meet Chinese President Xi Jinping during the visit. The trip will attempt to build on recent diplomatic outreach to Beijing, the official explained, but would also necessitate “clearly and directly communicating [American] concerns on bilateral, regional and global issues” where China and the United States differ on policy. Among other issues, Blinken will raise “deep concerns” about alleged Chinese business support for Russia’s defense industrial base, the crisis in the Middle East and also in Myanmar, the issue of Taiwan and China’s recent “provocations” in the South China Sea, he said. But the official played down the likelihood of results, with many of the differences between Washington and Beijing now deep-seated. “I want to make clear that we are realistic and clear-eyed about the prospects of breakthroughs on any of these issues,” he said. He also demurred when asked if Blinken would meet Xi on Friday, as is rumored. But he said more scheduling details will be released later. “It’s safe for you to expect that he’ll spend considerable time with his counterpart … Foreign Minister Wang Yi,” he said. “We are confident our Chinese hosts will arrange a productive and constructive visit.” ‘Fueling’ the Ukraine war American officials have since last week accused Chinese businesses of keeping Russia’s war effort afloat by exporting technology needed to rebuild the country’s defense industrial base that supplies its military. Speaking to reporters on Friday on the Italian island of Capri ahead of the Group of 7 foreign ministers’ meeting, Blinken said U.S. intelligence had “not seen the direct supply of weapons” from China to Russia but instead a “supply of inputs” required by Russia’s defense industry. The support was “allowing Russia to continue the aggression against Ukraine,” he said, by allowing Moscow to rebuild its defense capacity, to which “so much damage has been done to by the Ukrainians.” “When it comes to weapons, what we’ve seen, of course, is North Korea and Iran primarily providing things to Russia,” Blinken said. “When it comes to Russia’s defense industrial base, the primary contributor in this moment to that is China,” he explained. “We see China sharing machine tools, semiconductors, [and] other dual-use items that have helped Russia rebuild the defense industrial base that sanctions and export controls had done so much to degrade.” Beijing was attempting, Blinken said, to secretly aid Russia’s war in Ukraine while openly courting improved relations with Europe. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met with Xi in Beijing on Tuesday, and Xi is set to meet French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris next month. “If China purports, on the one hand, to want good relations with Europe,” he said, “it can’t, on the other hand, be fueling what is the biggest threat to European security since the end of the Cold War.” The G-7 group, which also includes Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom, also released a statement on Friday calling on China “to press Russia to stop its military aggression.” The seven foreign ministers also expressed their concern “about transfers to Russia from business in China of dual-use materials and components for weapons and equipment for military production.” In an email to Radio Free Asia, Liu Pengyu, a spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, did not deny Blinken’s claims. But he said China “is not a party to or involved in the Ukraine crisis” and that the country’s position on the war is “fair and objective.” “We actively promote peace talks and have not provided weapons to either side of the conflict,” Liu said. “At the same time, China and Russia have every right to normal economic and trade cooperation, which should not be interfered with or restricted.” Not the only tension Blinken’s trip will come amid a slew of other squabbles between the world’s two major powers bubbling since last year’s Xi-Biden talks. In a speech at Vanderbilt University in Nashville, Tennessee, on Thursday, FBI Director Christopher Wray repeated claims he made to Congress earlier this year that Chinese hackers were targeting key U.S. infrastructure and waiting to “wreak havoc” in case of a conflict. On April 11, Biden notably warned Beijing that the United States would come to the aid of Philippine vessels in the South China Sea if they were attacked by China, calling the commitment “ironclad.” On the economic front, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who herself visited Beijing this month, has slammed Beijing for what she says is over-subsidization of green technology, with cheap Chinese exports crippling development of competing industries worldwide. Xi also expressed concerns to Biden during a phone call on April 2 about a bill that would allow the U.S. president to ban the popular social media app TikTok, which U.S. officials have called a national security threat, if its Chinese parent company does not divest. China, meanwhile, on Friday forced Apple to scrub social media apps WhatsApp and Threads, both owned by Facebook parent company Meta, from its App Store, citing “national security concerns.” Blinken will be joined on his trip by Liz Allen, the under secretary for public diplomacy and public Affairs; Daniel Kritenbrink, the assistant secretary of state for East Asia and the Pacific; Todd Robinson, the undersecretary for narcotics and law enforcement; and Nathaniel Fick, the U.S. ambassador-at-large for cyberspace and digital policy.

In China, drones, social media monitor foreign journalists: report

Editor4 months ago09 mins

Chinese authorities use drones to monitor and follow foreign journalists as they report from the country, as well as detaining, harassing and threatening them with non-renewal of their work permits if they report on topics deemed sensitive by the government, according to a new report on journalists’ working conditions. Four out of five members who responded to the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of China annual working conditions survey said they had experienced “interference, harassment or violence” while trying to do their jobs in China during the past year, the FCCC report found. Local governments are increasingly using technology to keep track of foreign media workers, the report found. “During a trip to Poyang Lake, where we were reporting on the status of the Yangtze River dolphin, we were followed by multiple cars with plainclothes individuals inside,” the report quoted a journalist with a European media organization as saying. “At one point, the plainclothes individuals appeared to use a drone when a blocked sandy road prevented them from getting closer by car,” they said. A cameraman from Hong Kong Cable TV is restrained from photographing the crowd waiting to buy tickets for the 2008 Beijing Olympics, July 25, 2008, in Beijing, China. (Robert F. Bukaty/AP) Another European journalist reported similar high-tech surveillance when on a reporting trip to two provinces affected by extreme weather events linked to climate change. “We were followed by multiple carloads of plain clothes officers,” the report quoted them as saying. “Drones were sent out to follow and observe us when we got out of our vehicle to film/collect interviews. When we moved on foot to a spot, the drones would follow us.” Respondents also told the FCCC they had reason to believe the authorities had “possibly or definitely” compromised their WeChat (81%), their phone (72%), and/or placed audio recording bugs in their office or homes, the report found. ‘Endless cat-and-mouse game’ Another journalist with a European newspaper described reporting in China as “an endless cat-and-mouse game.” “Whatever strategy you try, the Chinese surveillance and security system adapts and closes the gap,” the report quoted them as saying. “Whatever strategies you use, the space for reporting keeps getting smaller and smaller.” A foreign reporter of many years’ experience in China who gave only the surname Lok for fear of reprisals told RFA Cantonese that she expects her communications apps to be monitored at all times. “I was talking about an issue with a friend here [in mainland China] … and may have mentioned it on WeChat,” Lok said. “Later, he was called in by the police to ‘drink tea’” – a euphemism for being called in for questioning. Journalists crowd a National People’s Congress press conference a day before the opening of the annual session of China’s parliament, in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People on March 4, 2019. (Greg Baker/AFP) “It turned out that the problem wasn’t him, but the conversation he had with me,” she said. “We have to be careful, because a lot of trouble has come from talking to people on WeChat.” A second Hong Kong journalist who gave only the surname Wong for fear of reprisals said it used to be easier for journalists to evade official surveillance than it is now. “The Chinese government’s digital surveillance methods are comprehensive,” Wong said. “You could describe them as a dragnet, in which every move the target makes is visible to them.” Online surveillance Huang Chao-nien, an assistant professor at the National Development Institute of Taiwan’s National Chengchi University, agreed, adding that the government has used online surveillance to target journalists for years. The government has long used an internet development model that intervenes in the market to control tech companies … forcing them to cooperate with the government in carrying out political surveillance and controls on public speech, he said. More than half of the journalists who took part in the FCCC annual survey said they had been “obstructed” at least once by police or other officials, while 45% encountered obstruction by unidentified persons, the report said. Some had been warned not to join the club as it was deemed an “illegal organization,” while others were threatened with non-renewal of their visas and work permits if they didn’t toe the line, the report said. Areas deemed particularly sensitive by Chinese officials were even harder to work in, it said, adding that 85% of journalists who tried to report from the far western region of Xinjiang in 2023 experienced problems. “In Xinjiang we were followed the entire time,” the report quoted a European journalist as saying. “It was particularly unpleasant in Hotan, where we counted about half a dozen plainclothes following us by car or on foot.” “In Korla, we at some point had six cars following us. When we did a U-turn and then a detour over an abandoned construction site and dust road, they all faithfully followed us,” the journalist said. Chinese policemen manhandle a photographer, center, as he photographs a news event near the No. 1 Intermediate People’s Court, in Beijing Sunday, Jan. 26, 2014. (Andy Wong/AP) And the definition of “sensitive” areas appears to be expanding. “An increasing number of journalists encountered issues in regions bordering Russia (79%), Southeast Asian nations (43%) or in ethnically diverse regions like Inner Mongolia (68%),” the report said. More than 80% said potential sources and interviewees had declined to be interviewed because they didn’t have prior permission from their superiors to speak to foreign media. Fear of reprisals is even being felt among experts, pundits and commentators, the report said. “Academic sources, think tank employees and analysts either decline interviews, request anonymity, or don’t respond at all,” it quoted respondents as saying. Translated with additional reporting by Luisetta Mudie. Edited by Malcolm Foster.

Rohingya activists call for more control of aid money

Editor4 months ago09 mins

Rohingya Muslim activists representing fellow refugees forced out of Myanmar and into “prison-like” camps in Bangladesh said in Washington on Thursday that foreign aid to the camps would go further if some of it was given directly to refugee-run groups. But a representative of the U.S. Agency for International Development, or USAID, said little money was left over after aid cuts that currently see the refugees provided with only $10 worth of food a month. About 90% of the 1.2 million Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh struggled to have “acceptable food consumption” late last year, according to the World Food Programme, when their monthly ration of food was bumped up from about $8 to about $10 per person. Speaking at an event on Capitol Hill to mark two years since the United States labelled Myanmar’s atrocities in 2017 against the Rohingya a “genocide,” the activists said aid was not always spent in ways most helpful for the Rohingya refugees living in Cox’s Bazar. “There are ways to do it effectively,” said Yasmin Ullah, a Canada-based rights activist born in Myanmar’s Rakhine state and the director of the Rohingya Maiyafuinor Collaborative Network. Yasmin Ullah of the Rohingya community is interviewed outside the International Court in The Hague, Netherlands, Jan. 23, 2020. (Peter Dejong/AP) The activist said her group had raised $20,000 through crowdfunding to be disbursed by refugee-run groups in the camp to improve livelihoods there. But she noted global aid flows were far larger. “We know our issues. We know how and where to put this money. We can run with $10,000 farther than any other humanitarian groups can,” she said. “We are asking for aid to be utilized and to directly go to refugee-led initiatives and refugee-led organizations.” Unsolved problems Aid for Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh has dwindled, with less than two-thirds of the approximately $850 million in annual aid requested by aid agencies in the country being fulfilled, a U.N. report said. Lucky Karim, a Rohingya refugee who resettled in the U.S. state of Illinois in 2022 and now works with the International Campaign for the Rohingya, said that any international aid sent to help people in the camps “means a lot to us as refugees” and was appreciated. But she questioned why the hundreds of millions of dollars flowing into the camps each year were not improving conditions. “It’s not about how many years the U.S. has been supporting Rohingya,” Karim said. “What are you guys able to solve?” “Did you solve the labor issue? Did you solve the sexual and domestic and the other violence in the camps? Did you solve the human trafficking issue? Did you figure out the security risks at the camp? Did you figure out and identify the gangs and the nonstate actors in the camp at night?” she said. “Those are the only questions we have.” Requests for more help, she added, were “not just about increasing funding,” with many Rohingyas understanding funds are limited. “When it comes to the funding issue, when I talked to USAID, for example, they’re like, ‘Oh no Lucky, we have other places in war, like Gaza, for example, and Ukraine, for example,’” Karim recounted, noting there were “many other cases coming up every few years.” Like Ullah, she said some aid could be spent more effectively. “The amount of funding you’re sending to Rohingya refugees in Cox’s Bazar and elsewhere should go to the right people at the right time to the needed situations,” she said. “How do you ensure it without Rohingya’s involvement in the decision making process?” Limited funds Peter Young, the USAID director for South and Central Asia, told the event that the United States had sent more than $1.9 billion in aid to support Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh since the 2017 genocide. Brothers Mohammed Akter, 8, and Mohammed Harun, 10, pose for a photograph on the floor of their burned shelter after a fire damaged thousands of shelters at the Balukhali refugee camp in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh, March 25, 2021. (Mohammad Ponir Hossain/Reuters) But he acknowledged the global aid being made available “is not sufficient to meet the needs of people” in the refugee camps. What was once a $12 monthly food ration to the refugees, he explained, was cut to just $8 last year before the eventual bump back to $10. At the end of the day, he said, aid groups were left grappling with the fact they have few funds left after disbursing those meager rations. “We certainly agree with – as Lucky said – the importance of working with and through the Rohingya community,” Young said. “We do make sure our projects that are implemented there are staffed by Rohingya there [or] developed in consultation with community leaders.” “At the same time, if you do the math, $10 a month for a million people consumes our entire budget pretty quickly,” he said. “So the bandwidth that we have to do other programming besides food is limited.” One of the first priorities for the refugee camps outside of food would be “durable shelters,” Young said, due to both the propensity of the camps to be hit by devastating disasters and the “understanding that there will be a lot of people there for some time into the future.” But for the Rohingya activists, that’s only a start. Karim, the Illinois-based refugee, said little will change in the camps until Rohingyas are given some decision-making powers – and “not just coming to D.C. every six months” for forums on Capitol Hill. “You take a bunch of notes, you leave us, you forget us,” the activist said. “We want a specific seat at the table.” Edited by Malcolm Foster.

Why Laos’ Communists cannot do anti-corruption

Editor5 months ago017 mins

Corruption is often seen as a byproduct, a quirk, of a political system. But in many authoritarian states, it is actually the modus operandi. Consider what binds a political structure together. How do you make sure that lowly officials in the provinces listen to their masters in the capital? How do you instill the sense that everyone is working together for the same cause, that all participants aren’t just a bunch of self-interested, warring individuals? One way is through terror. Officials listened to Joseph Stalin, the Soviet dictator, and his Politburo because they feared for their lives. Another is through a common sense of purpose. This could be ideological. Everyone works towards the same goals because they believe they are creating a better world. Or it could be existential, such as everyone pulling together during wartime. Or it could be transactional, as we see in meritocracies, with everyone accepting the norms and hierarchies of the political structure because doing so means they stand a chance of advancing up the political ladder. Cambodia’s King Norodom Sihamoni, front center, and members of Cambodia’s government pose with newly elected members of parliament during the opening ceremony at the National Assembly building in Phnom Penh on Aug. 21, 2023. (Tang Chhin Sothy/AFP) However, another method is through corruption, what some academics would call “rent-seeking”. Low-ranking officials in the provinces pay heed to their superiors in the capital because they are all part of vast patronage networks. Low-ranking officials are loyal to their patrons in return for financial benefits and promotion, while the higher-ranking patrons in government are able to get others to follow their policies because they control the fortunes of those lower down the hierarchy. Moreover, corruption provides something of a common purpose, a common understanding, amongst all levels of the political structure. Everyone knows how the game is rigged and that they have to pay fealty to those who control the most important patronage networks in order to advance up the hierarchy. Indeed, graft instills a sense of loyalty. When harmonized, as in Cambodia, a rent-seeking system ensures that all political grandees have just enough access to financial rewards and that graft is spread somewhat equitably so that there are no major internal frictions. That begs the question of how anti-corruption campaigns can work in authoritarian states that previously had rent-seeking systems. Vietnam is a good example. Before 2016, the Communist Party of Vietnam held its hierarchy together in large part through corruption. This was partly because of the decentralization that occurred in the 2000s, which made it much more difficult for the central party apparatus to control what was happening in the provinces and districts. More importantly, ideological factors that had previously held the Communist Party together began to fade. Rent-seeking cadres By the early 1990s, when Hanoi made peace with Beijing, Vietnam was for the first time in half a century unthreatened by a foreign power. No longer could the CPV compel internal cohesion within its ranks through rally-around-the-flag appeals to cohesion and unity At the same time, because the Vietnamese government became more professionalized, it meant bringing in non-communist officials. This, added to the public’s disinterest in socialist ideals, especially after the capitalist reforms in 1986, meant that communist ideology no longer functioned as a way to bind the political structure together. And the CPV was no longer the sole arbitrator of nationalism. In the early 2000s, a popular strain of nationalism emerged among the public that accused the party of being unpatriotic for selling Vietnamese land to foreign (mainly Chinese) investors, which culminated in the momentous Bauxite protests of 2009. Amid these social changes, a new generation of rent-seeking apparatchiks emerged – personified by Nguyen Tan Dung, who became prime minister in 2006 – who cast aside ideology and nationalism and instead embraced graft as a way of building their own personal power and binding the splintering party apparatus. This led to a reaction, however, from the more ideological factions of the party, led by Nguyen Phu Trong, who became party chief in 2012. Vietnam’s Communist Party general secretary Nguyen Phu Trong, left, gestures as he arrives at the National Assembly in Hanoi on Jan. 15, 2024. (Nhac Nguyen/AFP) However, it was only when he defeated Dung in the 2016 National Congress that Trong launched his anti-corruption campaign. Even then, dismissing or jailing the corrupt was only one side of the coin. Far more important, as Trong has acknowledged, has been his so-called “morality campaign”. Since 2016, he has reinstated socialist ideology and ethics as the defining factor of party membership. To be promoted now, an official must at least rhetorically profess fealty to socialism and demonstrate a clean, hard-working lifestyle. At the same time, Trong has re-centralized power, taking away authority from the provincial officials and giving it to his small clique in Hanoi, which is one reason why he has struggled to find a successor, given that he has now cloaked his own position in so much power — perhaps the most since 1986 — that it has become even more precarious and existential if the CPV selects an unfit successor. So what about next-door Laos? Similar to Vietnam, it embraced decentralization in the 1990s, stripping the apparatchiks in Vientiane of some of their authority. Given its geography, the central party apparatus in Laos has always been unable to fully control what local officials do. Its capitalist reforms in the late 1980s also stripped socialist ideology as a common cause within Lao People’s Revolutionary Party (LPRP). In fact, the LPRP has long been less ideological than its Vietnamese counterpart. Anti-corruption failure Nationalism, too, has disappeared. Indeed, the growing anti-Chinese chorus of Laotians has led many to regard the LPRP with disdain, believing it has allowed foreign businesses to destroy the environment and made Laotians second-class citizens. Unlike in Vietnam, however, anti-corruption efforts have failed in Laos. When he became prime minister in 2016, Thongloun Sisssoloth vowed to unleash a vast anti-graft campaign, but it had…

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