Jakarta seeks to contain fallout from South China Sea agreement with Beijing

JAKARTA – Indonesia is seeking to contain the fallout from a maritime cooperation agreement with China that analysts say appears to indicate a softening of Jakarta’s stance on Beijing’s expansive claims in the South China Sea.

A joint statement released after a meeting between Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Saturday said the two countries had reached an “important common understanding on joint development in areas of overlapping claims.”

This “understanding” or agreement compromised Indonesia’s territorial and maritime rights, most regional experts said.

One security analyst. though, noted on X that a clause stating that the cooperation would proceed only under the laws of both countries may mean the agreement will end up dead in the water.

Jakarta had consistently rejected the Beijing-set boundary, which encompasses most of the South China Sea and encroaches into Jakarta’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) north of the Natuna islands, noted Eddy Pratomo, an ex-member of the Indonesian government’s law of the sea negotiation team.

“[But] with this Indonesia-China joint statement, it appears Indonesia is now acknowledging overlapping claims,” Eddy, an international law professor at Diponegoro University, told RFA affiliate BenarNews.

“This could be seen as tacit recognition of China’s dashed-line claim over the South China Sea, particularly around the North Natuna Sea,” he said.

Opposition lawmaker Tubagus Hasanuddin, a member of the defense and foreign affairs committee in Indonesia’s House of Representatives, questioned the government’s approach to handling sensitive regional issues, particularly concerning the South China Sea.

“The Foreign Ministry needs to exercise greater caution and responsiveness in handling official statements,” he said in a press release.

“They shouldn’t act as a ‘firefighter’ only when problems arise.”

He also raised concerns about the potential consequences of such an agreement for Indonesian fishermen, citing past instances of Chinese vessels entering Indonesian waters and engaging in illegal fishing.

“Will this economic cooperation benefit us? Will Chinese fishing vessels then be free to roam in the Natuna area to catch our fish?”

One clause in the joint cooperation agreement, however, could mean it would not go through, said Euan Graham, senior analyst at The Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

“[T]he reference to “prevailing laws” means [the] agreement may be difficult for Prabowo to push through,” he noted on X.

The part of the joint statement Graham is referring to says that the joint development would be “based on the principles of ‘mutual respect, equality, mutual benefit, flexibility, pragmatism, and consensus-building,’ pursuant to their respective prevailing laws and regulations.”

Several analysts noted that Prabowo or Foreign Minister Sugiono needed to soon clarify what exactly the joint development was referring to and how the wording got into the joint statement.

‘Potential slippery slope’

The Indonesia-China joint development agreement has consequences not just for Indonesia but could potentially reshape geopolitical dynamics in Southeast Asia and draw responses from the United States and Japan, said international law expert Hikmahanto Juwana.

“Countries in dispute with China will question Indonesia’s position,” Hikmahanto, a University of Indonesia professor, told BenarNews.

The Indonesian government’s agreement with China might reflect a pragmatic alignment with a major political power, but it could potentially destabilize the region, said Muhammad Waffaa Kharisma, an international relations researcher at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

“In the short term, this statement may benefit Indonesia by easing tensions with China, particularly by reducing the likelihood of coast guard confrontations in the South China Sea,” he said.

“However, in the long term, it could harm Indonesia’s standing with Southeast Asian neighbors. This is a potential slippery slope.”

Pizaro Gozali Idrus in Jakarta contributed to this report.

BenarNews is an RFA-affiliated online news organization.