Did an American admiral claim the US will attack China in 2027?

A claim emerged in Chinese-language social media posts that U.S. Chief of Naval Operations Lisa Franchetti revealed during an internal meeting a U.S. plan to launch a war against China in 2027. 

But this is misleading. Franchetti’s comments were part of a public statement in which she said it was important to ensure the U.S. is prepared for a potential conflict with China by 2027.

The claim was shared on Douyin, Chinese version of TikTok in late September, 2024, alongside a 30-second video that shows U.S. Chief of Naval Operations Lisa Franchetti. 

“A leaked video shows that Franchetti revealed U.S.’s plans to launch a war with China in 2027 during internal U.S. Navy operations meeting,” the claim reads in part.

There are growing concerns about a potential U.S.-China war, particularly the assumption that such a conflict would be short and decisive. 

War games and military novels often portray limited, quick engagements, such as battles over Taiwan, but history shows that wars between great powers are rarely brief. Instead, they tend to drag on, expanding across multiple regions and involving other nations. 

Several factors could trigger a U.S.-China war, with Taiwan being the most significant. A Chinese attempt to invade or blockade Taiwan could prompt a U.S. response. Territorial disputes in the South China Sea, where China’s claims clash with those of U.S. allies like the Philippines, also pose risks.

Additionally, alliances involving nations like Russia or North Korea could draw more countries into a broader conflict, turning a regional dispute into a larger war.

The same claim about Franchetti was shared on X, formerly known as Twitter, and Weibo. 

But the claim is misleading. 

Original clip

A combination of keyword searches and reverse image search on Google found that the clips of Franchetti were taken from a video released by the U.S. military on Sept. 18, titled: “CNO Release Navigation Plan 2024.”

“Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Lisa Franchetti released her Navigation Plan (NAVPLAN) for America’s Warfighting Navy at the Naval War College, Sept. 18,” the caption of the video reads in part.

“This strategic guidance focuses on two strategic ends: readiness for conflict with the PRC by 2027 and enhancing long-term advantage,” it reads further.

Separately, the Navy’s navigation plan, the first update in two years, sets the year 2027 as a baseline for U.S. naval operations in response to goals stated by Chinese President Xi Jinping regarding target dates for China’s military modernization.  

A review of the video and the navigation plan found no mention of a  U.S. plan to launch a war with China in 2027.

Chinese military modernization

China proposed  accelerating the modernization of its defense forces at a meeting of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee in October 2020. 

The meeting signaled that China’s armed forces should be prepared for the country’s great rejuvenation by 2027, a goal frequently mentioned by Chinese officials and reported in state-run media. 

Since then, U.S. officials have debated and offered different viewpoints about whether China will attack Taiwan in 2027 or 2035. 

When Chinese President Xi Jinping met U.S. President Joe Biden at a summit in San Francisco in November 2023, he denied that China planned to attack Taiwan in 2027 or 2035, according to media reports. 

Translated by Shen Ke. Edited by Shen Ke and Taejun Kang.

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