After 2024 setbacks, junta forces now control less than half of Myanmar

Myanmar’s junta forces now control less than half the country after suffering major battlefield setbacks in 2024 -– including the loss of command headquarters in Shan and Rakhine states, several rebel groups said.

In June, the Three Brotherhood Alliance of ethnic armies resumed offensive operations in Shan state. Within weeks, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army had captured Lashio, a city of 130,000 that is the region’s commercial and administrative hub and a gateway to China.

Another member of the alliance, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, also seized the strategic Shan state townships of in Ann township on Dec. 20.

Elsewhere in Rakhine, the military has been reinforcing troops in areas that it does control, residents said earlier this month. That includes Kyaukphyu, where China has plans for a port as well as energy facilities and oil and gas pipelines that run to its Yunnan province.

In neighboring Chin state, ethnic rebels captured two townships last week, Chin Brotherhood Alliance spokesperson Salai Yaw Mang said. Several anti-junta groups are now in control of about 85 percent of the state, he said.

(Athit Perawongmetha/Reuters)

Forced recruitment

In Shan state, to the northeast, ethnic armed groups control 24 townships, with just Tangyang, Mongyai and Muse still held by the junta. The capture of the northeastern command headquarters outside of Lashio in late July was one of the most significant losses for the military in years.

In total, ethnic armed groups and allied forces have seized 86 towns across the country, the Myanmar Peace Monitor of Burma News International reported on Dec. 23.

In Sagaing, in central Myanmar –- viewed as a homeland for the majority ethnic Bamar people –- a major junta offensive is expected sometime next year, according to Htoo Khant Zaw, a spokesperson for the People’s Defense Comrade group based in Sagaing’s Ye-U township.

“The regime is still forcibly recruiting young people, even in the cities,” he said. “They are providing training, and the offensive is expected to be launched by land and air in 2025.”

Translated by Aung Naing. Edited by Matt Reed and Malcolm Foster.