Opponents of Myanmar junta skeptical on any Thai help for census, vote

Opponents of military rule in Myanmar have criticized the possibility that Thailand will help conduct a census in preparation for an election that the Myanmar junta has promised but which critics say will be an illegitimate sham.

The possibility of Thai support for Myanmar’s Oct. 1-15 census and for an election next year was discussed by the Thai  ambassador, Mongkol Visitstump, and the head of Myanmar’s Election Commission, Ko Ko, and Immigration and Population Minister Myint Kyaing in Myanmar’s capital of Naypyidaw on Aug. 7, junta-backed media reported.

Myanmar’s military ousted an elected government led by Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi in early 2021, jailing her and hundreds of party colleagues and supporters, dissolving her party and banning other parties. 

The junta has promised to hold elections but critics say a vote would be meaningless with Suu Kyi and so many pro-democracy politicians and activists in jail.

A spokesman for a civilian shadow government largely made up of politicians from Suu Kyi’s party told Radio Free Asia the international community, including Thailand, should focus on restoring human rights and stability, not supporting any “illegitimate” junta plan.

“I would request the international community not to support and help this illegitimate Myanmar military junta against the will of the people,” said Kyaw Zaw, spokesperson for the Office of the President of the National Unity Government, or NUG.

“This is a time for the international community to support Myanmar people and Myanmar people’s resistance against the fascist military and prepare for the post-military era,” he said. 

Thailand’s embassy in Myanmar and its Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not respond to requests for comment. 

Thailand has been at the forefront of efforts to press Myanmar’s rivals into resolving their differences peacefully. 

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It says that it is the country that shares the longest border with Myanmar, and which has for decades served as home for hundreds of thousands refugees fleeing conflict  in Myanmar, it has a particular interest in seeing stability restored.

But despite the efforts of Thailand and its neighbors in the Association of South East Asian Nations, fighting has escalated as  junta forces face battlefield setbacks in several parts of the country.

‘Step up attacks’

Kyaw Zaw said the junta had no ability to conduct a “meaningful, useful census,” and that the international community should focus on other human rights and development efforts. 

The junta has not set a date for an election but the earliest would be early next year. Under the constitution, an election must be held within six months of a state of emergency being lifted. A state of emergency in effect since the early 2021 coup was extended for another six months on Aug. 1. 

The junta chief, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, has said an election will be held in 2025 but acknowledged that voting in some places may not be possible in the absence of “peace and stability”.

Insurgents control 73 towns across the country, according to data from the Myanmar Peace Monitor. 

A political observer close to one of Myanmar’s most powerful ethnic minority insurgent groups, the Arakan Army, dismissed the possibility of an effective census and election given the amount of territory the insurgents control, adding that attempts by the junta to organize a vote would likely only exacerbate the fighting.

“It is very likely that [they] will step up attacks on the liberated areas, especially targeting the civilians as collective punishment,” said the political observer, who declined to be identified given the sensitivity of the issue.

The Arakan Army controls nine townships in Rakhine state in western Myanmar as well as territory in neighboring Chin state.

“Neighboring countries should speak out, that the SAC needs to stop attacks on civilians and initiate dialogue and only then can genuine elections come out of these,” he said, referring to the junta, which is officially known at the State Administration Council.

Edited by Taejun Kang.