Interview with Lucio Pitlo: Philippines’ Foreign Policy and China’s Influence

In an exclusive interview with IJ-Reportika, Lucio III Pitlo, a seasoned foreign policy and security analyst, shares his insights on the Philippines’ current foreign policy under the Marcos administration. He discusses the nation’s balancing act between major powers like the U.S., China, and Japan, ASEAN’s role in regional security, and how China’s growing influence impacts Southeast Asia. Pitlo also explores the challenges and opportunities facing the Philippines as it navigates complex geopolitical landscapes.

Personal Insights

1. Academic and Professional Journey: Could you share some highlights of your academic and professional journey that have significantly shaped your perspectives on foreign policy? How did your studies at institutions like Peking University and American University influence your current work?

I studied in China and the United States and that helped me understand the drivers of their respective defense and foreign policies. Studying in top universities in these countries located in their respective capitals gave me a chance to attend talks and events held by think tanks and policy institutes. That exposed me to the burning and emerging issues in these two countries, the debate on them, and some discussion on possible ways forward. Such opportunities complemented my academic courses. It made me more aware of the interplay of various economic, security, diplomatic, political, and social factors that link and divide these two major powers and the stakes involved in managing this world’s most important bilateral relations. My experience working with private enterprise, university, government, and think tank enriched my appreciation of the intersect between these different sectors and the roles they play in forming foreign policy.

2. Challenges in the Field: As someone who has navigated various roles in academia, think tanks, and policy consultancy, what have been some of the most challenging aspects of your career? How do you maintain a balance between your professional and personal life?

While they interface or even work with each other, each sector has its own distinct features and priorities. Some academic research has more time sensitivity and relevance for policy than others. Government may tap or commission university centers or professors for their subject matter expertise. Think tanks, NGOs and academic institutions can take part in more open, frank, and candid Track 2 exchanges where assumptions and premises can be probed and tested and valuable insights from counterparts can be learned which can be shared with officialdom. Declaratory policies do not stand in the way of negotiations and compromise. Official views do not necessarily reflect the personal stance of the messengers. You can debate intensely with counterparts from opposing views during sessions, yet develop deep and enduring personal relations with them.

Philippines’ Foreign Policy

3. Current Foreign Policy Direction: How do you assess the current direction of the Philippines’ foreign policy under the Marcos administration?

The Philippines is presently growing its security and economic partners. It ratified RCEP last year and its second bilateral free trade agreement with another country, the Republic of Korea, early this month. It is courting US and Japanese investments in infrastructure, semiconductors, and agribusiness in its Luzon Economic Corridor project. Manila’s diversification of markets and investors is a way to diminish the possible adverse effect of entanglements that may undermine its economy and security. Aside from deepening its alliance with the US, the country is also expanding security ties with Japan, Australia, and European partners like France. The goal is to get more able partners invested in the country’s prosperity and security. The country continues to modernize its military and coast guard, leverage its alliance and partners to deter attempts to alter the status quo in contested spaces, and promote adherence to international law and a rules-based global order. While garnering international support for its landmark legal victory, the 2016 South China Sea arbitration award, it remains open to dialogue and diplomacy to handle disputes and avoid accidents from sparking conflict.

4. Challenges and Opportunities: What challenges and opportunities do you see in balancing relations with major powers such as the U.S., China, and Japan?

As with all countries, major powers have their own interests. Where those interests converge with those of the Philippines, there are opportunities to work together. But as enmity among big powers intensifies, the risk of getting caught in between increases. Dealing with major powers requires a mix of pushback and accommodation and Manila is not alone in this predicament. So working with ASEAN and other middle powers to have more options is important. Growing its agency and autonomy is critical.

5. ASEAN’s Role: How effective do you believe ASEAN has been in addressing regional security issues? What role should the Philippines play within ASEAN moving forward?

ASEAN is one of the world’s long-lasting and successful regional organizations. It helped promote regional economic integration among member states with varying levels of governance and political systems and levels of development. It was able to prevent inter-state conflict among its members. Its contribution to regional peace cannot be understated. However, it struggles to deal with the civil strife in Myanmar due to its time-honored tradition of non-interference in the domestic affairs of its members. It also faces difficulty dealing with multiparty spats involving major powers like the South China Sea. As a founding member of ASEAN, Manila should continue to find common ground with its neighbors – be it in the economic or security realms. It should help form consensus on crucial issues that beset the region even if such conversations would not be easy.

China’s Foreign Policy and Regional Influence

6. China’s Growing Influence: With China’s expanding influence in Southeast Asia, how do you foresee the Philippines navigating its relationship with China, especially given the economic benefits versus the security concerns?

China is the Philippines’ largest trade partner, but frequent sea incidents complicate ties. Insulating economic and commercial ties from the intractable sea row has been the holy grail of the relations. Building guardrails to ensure territorial and maritime disputes do not pollute overall ties or worse veer into conflict is a longstanding aspiration. Success in achieving this desire is contingent on several factors, including the direction of the current leadership in power (especially in Manila), the capacity of claimants and the strategies they pursue to attain their goals, the level of trust among contestants, and changing security or threat assessments.

7. China’s Media Narratives: In a recent report we conducted titled China’s Soft Power Propaganda Network, we explored how Chinese media, including Global Times and CGTN, play a significant role in shaping global narratives. For instance, Global Times has published reports like “US fans flames as Philippines keeps provoking China in South China Sea” and “Manila is turning itself into a regional risk factor,” while CGTN has broadcasted segments such as “CGTN reporter visits sites of Philippines’ provocations in South China Sea.” How do you perceive these developments, and what impact do you think they have on regional perceptions and tensions?

China is a major power. It desires to contribute to addressing global challenges commensurate to its capacity. It is natural for it to convey its message and is learning, not without hitches, how to deliver it. China wants to tell its story to the world. But it has to do so without sounding like propaganda. Addressing its domestic audience is different from communicating with a global audience. State-owned media are expected to toe the official line and may not be viewed as impartial purveyors of news about disputes like the South China Sea where China is a party. Beijing’s messaging on such issues will continue to have limited appeal, especially among its aggrieved neighbors, and may most likely cater to its domestic constituency. But on issues where China had been a contributor of public goods like infrastructure and renewable energy, its message may get more resonance.

8. Belt and Road Initiative: Given your work on how the Philippine media portrays China’s Belt and Road Initiative, how do you assess the current public and governmental perception of BRI in the Philippines? Do you think the BRI has achieved its intended objectives in the country?

Perception of China and its BRI is colored by the West Philippine Sea. Compared to other coastal states, the maritime row has a high issue salience in the country and this helps explain wary views towards China which affect the reception of Chinese strategic investments especially in critical infrastructure, like telecoms and power grid. Beijing already delivered some projects in the country like donated bridges in Metro Manila, drug rehabilitation centers in Mindanao, and an irrigation project in northern Luzon. China is also involved in building a dam that can improve water security for the capital region and neighboring provinces and another bridge in Mindanao. However, talks for three proposed railways hit a snag due to rising tensions. The security sector expressed concerns about infrastructure projects near military bases or sensitive locations. Leadership change bears on the Philippines’ receptiveness to engaging China in big-ticket items and such shifts represent serious political risk for Chinese enterprises. This also acts to temper the ambitions of Chinese entities in growing their Philippine portfolio.

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